There is quite a fight brewing in Australia between regular folks and the Gillard government. It will come to a head when a big nationwide convoy of truckers descend on the delicate government types in the Canberra Australian Capital Territory. The great unwashed meet the ruling class in wrecktacular style.
Meanwhile, as the truckers beef up their roobars for the possible collisions ahead, I have this speech from my friend David Archibald.
David Archibald Speech for Rally in Canberra August 16th, 2011
My first duty to you today is tell you what is happening to the climate. What is happening is cooling. The oceans started cooling in 2003, and the atmosphere is following. There has been no warming since 1998.
In fact, the temperature of planet today is almost the same as it was when satellites first started measuring it in 1979. No one under the age of 32 has experienced global warming. Some of us predate that and remember the heavy frosts of the nineteen seventies. Those frosts are returning, and worse. Solar activity is weakening, and will remain weak for another 22 years.
We in this blessed country will be spared the worst of it, but a large portion of the grain belt in the northern hemisphere will have crop failures due to longer winters and early frosts. Canada will go from being a large exporter of grain to becoming a frequent importer. As long as Australia remains a net food exporter, we will benefit from the shorter Northern Hemisphere growing season.
For us, climate is a non-problem. Carbon dioxide’s heating effect is real, but minuscule. The one hundred parts per million that we have added to the atmosphere in the last one hundred years has heated the planet by one tenth of a degree. We will add another hundred parts per million over the next fifty years. The total of two tenths of a degree will be very welcome by mid-century.
In fact, the more carbon dioxide we add to the atmosphere, the better. During the ice ages of the last three million years, the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere got as low as one hundred and seventy-two parts per million. Plant growth shuts down at one hundred and fifty parts per million. Life above sea level was almost snuffed out due to a lack of carbon dioxide. We were only twenty-two parts per million from extinction. We came so close to dying out due to a lack of carbon dioxide. And, for those amongst us who like plants and animals, they would have died out too.
The more we can increase the carbon dioxide level of the atmosphere, the safer life on this planet will be.
The more we can increase the carbon dioxide level of the atmosphere, the safer life on this planet will be. For those amongst us who feel for the Third World, increasing the carbon dioxide level of the atmosphere is like giving them free fertiliser. Their crops will grow faster. Who amongst us would be so heartless as to deny the Third World that benefit at no cost to themselves? The Government hunkered down here in front of you is that heartless. But then, they don’t care about Australians either.
This fake problem of climate is distracting us from real problems. The first of which is the fact that our oil self-sufficiency is declining rapidly. It is 40% now. It will be down to 25% by 2015. We now import oil from as far afield as Azerbaijan, Algeria and the Congo. We are forced to rely upon their kindness to keep our farms and factories running.
It need not be like that. We could make our own transport fuels from our own coal. And keep the money we pay for them in Australia. But that won’t happen while the carbon tax lives.
…most of our institutions have failed in their duty to serve and protect
As a scientist, what saddens me is that most of our scientific institutions have failed in their duty to serve and protect the Australian people. The CSIRO, the Bureau of Meteorology, the universities – have all failed us. And then there are the institutions that actively, and purposefully, and very treacherously, conspired against us. Chief of which is the ABC, which has ceaselessly promoted the bizarre cult of carbon.
The next Government will inherit a lot of debt. To pay off that debt as quickly as possible, sacrifices will have to be made. The easiest sacrifice to make would be to shut down the ABC. None who love this country will weep for it.
Just as this Government did not weep for the cement workers who have already lost their jobs due to the carbon tax. The ABC is well past its use by date. It sees Australia through its perverted lens of self-loathing. The large fortune that is spent keeping the beast alive would be better spent paying off Labor’s legacy of debt.
Consumer confidence took a dive when Australians realised that the Government was pressing ahead with the carbon tax. It is hard to be positive when you realise the Government is doing its best to destroy the economy. Long term damage to the economy from this tax has been going on for years, but is now accelerating.
Ideally, there could be a very good outcome from this carbon tax debacle. It is not enough to merely put things back the way they were before this particular lot of Australia-haters came along. We must use this opportunity – your righteous anger – to unleash the Furies on those who failed us, and those who conspired against us.
There are so many wrongs that need to be righted if we are to make Australia the earthly paradise it is meant to be. So let’s right those wrongs. It is not enough to simply defeat this tax. Let’s not put up with the system that took Australia down the road to disaster.
Let’s have a good cleanout. It requires effort on your part. Coming here today is only the beginning. Many of you are shareholders, and many of the companies you are invested in have sold their souls to get their snouts into the carbon trough. Make their lives hell. They deserve it. Hound the directors until they recant.
As for any politicians who have ever believed in global warming, or supported the carbon tax, or a carbon-constrained economy, there is no hope for them. They are either too stupid or incompetent to be taken seriously. Merely recanting, at this late stage, won’t be enough. Make their lives hell too, just as they wished a diminished life on you.
Australia will soon face some big challenges as the world enters one of its most turbulent periods. Just maintaining our standard of living in the face of those challenges will require a lot of rigor. We will only get the required level of rigor if we demand it. Firstly of ourselves, and then of the politicians we choose to represent us. Even then, keeping Australia safe and secure and happy will take our eternal vigilance.
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Gillard seems like she’s completely insane.
Things are not so great in America right now but I cannot fathom why you Aussies put up with this AGW loon Gillard and her nutso cronies.
If David Archibald is all the Australians have then I’m afraid they’re toast – OK cold toast.
Canada did not import any wheat back in the cold 1970s. It started in the warming 1980s and it has been increasing every year, despite warmer weather. Go figure that.
http://www.indexmundi.com/agriculture/?country=ca&commodity=wheat&graph=imports
How will shutting down the ABC eliminate Australia’s debt problem? I doubt most of those people could find work anywhere else.
Australia has one of the highest standards of living in the world, higher by income per capita than even Canada (another rich exporting nation).
Australia has a high number of people in government – the government represents a high percentage of the countries GDP. How did Australia get to where it is now? Very, very slowly. This is not something that happened over night.
“No one under the age of 32 has experienced global warming.” That should be global cooling.
If the recent warming can be described as “minuscule” then the impending cooling must also be described as minuscule. Warmista 101.
“Ideally, there could be a very good outcome from this carbon tax debacle. It is not enough to merely put things back the way they were before this particular lot of Australia-haters came along. We must use this opportunity – your righteous anger – to unleash the Furies on those who failed us, and those who conspired against us.”
This is revenge of the coldistas. Australia should reduce the size of its government – not just kill the ABC – and stop its death march to socialism. No new taxes. Less government. And stop crapping on CO2. Coal is feeding your children.
Lazyteenager, what are your thoughts about human nutrition? Not to change the subject, but your posts remind me of unquestioned faith in the fad regarding eating raw food versus cooked food as being the only path to a healthy diet. Or the “supplements” craze. Or that genetically non-engineered is to be preferred over engineered food crops as being more nutritious. Or that corn sugar is bad, real sugar is good claim. And my fav, sea salt is somehow better than table salt. None of these fads have any kind of double blind gold standard studies backing up beneficial claims. Yet is seems to me that folks who have drunk from the koolaid bowl of AGW also buy into other unsubstantiated health fads.
Very well spoken, David, plenty thanks!
I think it’s most appropriate to broaden the geografic limits outside of Australia and apply the wording with some changes, i,e,: Sweden for Australia, Swedish for Australian, SVT/SR for ABC, Reinfeld for Gillard, and so on… Guess (I’m rather sure…) that same can be accurate for more countries in the EUssr…
Brgds from Sweden!
//ThomasJ
Garry says:
August 13, 2011 at 10:33 am
Gillard seems like she’s completely insane.
Sure she’s insane, but at least the great unwashed of Ozland appreciate the fact and are rising up against her.
Here in the UK the fancifully entitled “Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change”, Chris Huhne is also insane, and is singlehandedly destroying both our energy security and the UK’s already shaky economy. Meanwhile the population stands meekly by watching him do it without raising a single objection.
And yet yields for all crops, including wheat have steadily increased.
Go figure that.
http://www.choicesmagazine.org/magazine/fig/figure_176_full.jpg
http://www.indexmundi.com/agriculture/?country=ca&commodity=wheat&graph=yield
Gillard (and Obama) would do well to listen to what Burtrend Russel said many years ago.
Bertrand Russell – Social Cohesion & Human Nature (Part 6) :
Australia escaped most of the effects of the banking crisis. it only seems fair that the Australian government should cripple their economy and make Australians debt slaves like the rest of us in the developed world!
_______________________________
I used to read [and dismiss] excitable blogs about a ‘power elite’ taking over the world. However if you take the adage ‘the only way to enslave a free man is through debt’ then look again a the developed world : The banking crisis took out the US and much of Europe. Once Germany underwrites the Eurozone debt then that’s the whole of Europe wrapped up. AGW, which has been politics rather than science for a long time, could be regarded as a backup plan to enslave any remaining pockets, such as Australia and New Zealand, through debt. While I still remain skeptical about a ‘secret power elite’ I just wish it didn’t fit so many facts!
_________________________________
With regards to AGW I am still really puzzled as to why so many politicians around the world are so hell bent on damaging their economies and so destroying the lives of their people for no perceptible gain. If totally succesful then the policies of the Australian government [and here in the UK] may reduce global temperature by less than one hundredth of a degree centigrade. They ignore the lack of warming for the past 15 years, they ignore all the science which calls in to question the basis of AGW, they ignore the ineffectiveness of wind and solar power and the amount of wealth people make from them, they ignore the financial companies slavering over how many billions they will make from trading carbon credits [and the [other?] professional criminals who scam the odd 100 million!]. It is truly bizarre – I just wish I knew who is pressing their buttons, and how.
John M says:
August 13, 2011 at 12:50 pm
Canada did not import any wheat back in the cold 1970s. It started in the warming 1980s and it has been increasing every year, despite warmer weather. Go figure that.
And yet yields for all crops, including wheat have steadily increased.
Go figure that.
It’s because the land is being converted to vinyards John.
The solution for the ABC is simple and obvious. At present it serves the green tinged welfare state followers and the idealistic academic clique whose thoughts can be followed daily on the ABC Drum.
When this shambles of a government is swept out of Canberra we should not close down the ABC (that WOULD be police state). I am all for choice. But I also totally object to having to pay for an organisation that continually promotes causes totally abhorrent to my philosophy. Just let those that want it pay for it. I suggest the powers at be still run it and it remain commercial free but their budget be predicated by an annual ABC levy made on everybody’s annual tax return. The only difference would be that you would have a choice to pay or NOT pay the levy.
I think we would soon see some balance appearing in the public broadcaster – and a lot more efficiency.
Lazy Teenagers are irrelevant. Get an education, a job, preferably both, and contribute to society maybe for ten years first before you attempt to spew your sanctimonious drivel to those of us who actually live in the real world.
“Canada will go from being a large exporter of grain to becoming a frequent importer.”
Canada is the world’s second largest exporter of grain. It exports 2/3-3/4 of its total production. Does the author really think Canada’s production will fall by such a large amount? Not without an ice age, I would wager.
This sort of statement calls into question the credibility of the post.
Here are a few posts from WUWT on the topic:
Jimbo says:
January 24, 2011 at 7:50 am
What you people don’t understand is that all science researchers, no matter what field, are jumping on the global warming bandwagon in a wild feeding frenzy of funds. Here is where some of the research funding went.
Warmer Northern Hemisphere winters because of global warming
Colder Northern Hemisphere winters because of global warming
Global warming to slow down the Earth’s rotation
Global warming to speed up the Earth’s rotation
North Atlantic Ocean has become less salty
North Atlantic Ocean has become more salty
Avalanches may increase
Avalanches may reduce
Plants move uphill due to global warming
Plants move downhill due to global warming
Declining coral calcification on the Great Barrier Reef due to global warming
Increasing coral calcification on the Great Barrier Reef due to global warming
Jimbo says:
April 3, 2011 at 5:03 am
Based partly on the models it’s much worse than we thought!
Amazon drought may be caused by cleaner air
Antarctica ice growth not linked to ozone
Arctic sea ice may not be in death spiral
Fisheries in Australia to thrive? or maybe not.
Great Barrier Reef boomed after bleaching
Natural disasters have not been increasing
Worldwide methane concentrations flattening?
Water scarcity has triggered peace treaties
[See also Geographical perspectives]
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/11/03/new-video-global-warmings-effects-a-to-z/
http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/warmlist.htm
A Complete List Of Things Supposedly
Caused By Global Warming
Oops, the embedded links in Jimbo’s posts didn’t carry over. Here are links to his original posts:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/01/24/another-mankind-as-evil-carbonator-even-way-back-then-study/#comment-581958
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/04/03/the-big-self-parodying-climate-change-blame-list/#comment-635018
@ur momisugly John-in-Oz: Here’s more:
Slabadang (18:42:24) :
AGW theories total collapse!
The gulf stream were slowing down……WRONG!
Antarctic ice melting…………………………WRONG!
Arctic ice in a “death spiral…………………WRONG!
The earth is warming…………………………WRONG!
More severe storms and hurricanes……..WRONG!
More flooding…………………………………..WRONG!
The sealevels are raisng more rapidly…WRONG!
Glaciers melting faster than previous….WRONG!
Amazonas……………………………………….WRONG!
Kilimanjaro………………………………………WRONG!
Dutch area under water……………………..WRONG!
Scientific consensus about global W/co2…Thats more a joke??? WRONG!
Winter snow a thing of the past…. another joke!!! WRONG!
“Barbecue summer” ………another joke!!! WRONG!
There will be a hotspot in the atmospfere….WRONG!
When co2 inreases warming accours…. WRONG!
African harvests …………………………WRONG!
Polarbears dying by global warming……a pure lie by WWF………WRONG!
Low summer ice extent arctic 2007 =global warming …WRONG!
Mediaval coooler than today ……oh yeah? say that to the vikings and the 400 published papers on the matter……an embarrasing intellectual insult..WRONG!
The hockeystick…….falsification in its bluntest form …WRONG!!!
A C Osborn (06:44:27) :
Slabadang (18:42:24) :
I agree with your list except I think this
The earth is warming…………………………WRONG!
Should have been
The earth is showing Unprecedented warming……WRONG!
Also you missed –
Coral dying from Heat – (actually dying from cold) …..WRONG!
More Animals dying from Heat – (actually dying from cold) …..WRONG!
More Collateral Damage from weather extremes…WRONG!
US Lakes Drying up…………………………WRONG!
Spring Coming earlier…………………………WRONG!
More Humans dying from Heat – (actually dying from cold) …..WRONG!
Frogs extinct from AGW – (actually a virus) …..WRONG!
—————–
Grant says:
June 28, 2011 at 4:50 pm
Seems like 10 years is a good number for harbingers of doom.
Ted Danson The “seas will be unhabital in 10 years”,
“The drop in food output could begin quite soon, perhaps only 10 years from now. The regions destined to feel its impact are the great wheat-producing lands of Canada and the U.S.S.R. in the North, along with a number of marginally self-sufficient tropical areas – parts of India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indochina and Indonesia – where the growing season is dependent upon the rains brought by the monsoon.”
More from http://www.richardabarrett.com/?p=195
1990 Actress Meryl Streep ”By the year 2000–that’s less than ten years away–earth’s climate will be warmer than it’s been in over 100,000 years. If we don’t do something, there’ll be enormous calamities in a very short time.”
January 1970 Life Magazine ”Scientists have solid experimental and theoretical evidence to support …the following predictions: In a decade, urban dwellers will have to wear gas masks to survive air pollution…by 1985 air pollution will have reduced the amount of sunlight reaching earth by one half….”
July 9, 1971, Washington Post “In the next 50 years fine dust that humans discharge into the atmosphere by burning fossil fuel will screen out so much of the sun’s rays that the Earth’s average temperature could fall by six degrees. Sustained emissions over five to ten years, could be sufficient to trigger an ice age.”
June 30, 1989, Associated Press U.N. OFFICIAL PREDICTS DISASTER, SAYS GREENHOUSE EFFECT COULD WIPE SOME NATIONS OFF MAP–entire nations could be wiped off the face of the earth by rising sea levels if global warming is not reversed by the year 2000. Coastal flooding and crop failures would create an exodus of “eco-refugees,” threatening political chaos, said Brown, director of the New York office of the U.N. Environment Program. He said governments have a 10-year window of opportunity to solve the greenhouse effect.
1991 Edward Goldsmith, 5000 Days to Save the Planet ”By 2000, British and American oil will have diminished to a trickle….Ozone depletion and global warming threaten food shortages, but the wealthy North will enjoy a temporary reprieve by buying up the produce of the South. Unrest among the hungry and the ensuing political instability, will be contained by the North’s greater military might. A bleak future indeed, but an inevitable one unless we change the way we live….At present rates of exploitation there may be no rainforest left in 10 years. If measures are not taken immediately, the greenhouse effect may be unstoppable in 12 to 15 years.”
April 22, 1990 ABC, The Miracle Planet “I think we’re in trouble. When you realize how little time we have left–we are now given not 10 years to save the rainforests, but in many cases five years. Madagascar will largely be gone in five years unless something happens. And nothing is happening.”
March 29, 2001, CNN ”In ten years time, most of the low-lying atolls surrounding Tuvalu’s nine islands in the South Pacific Ocean will be submerged under water as global warming rises sea levels.” [Next year we’ll know if this extremely unlikely prediction comes true.]
on and on and on………kinda rolls off the tongue, that ten years.
———-
Jordan says:
June 19, 2011 at 11:49 pm
THC shutdown was predicted s few years ago. A tipping point caused by freshwater influx in the North Atlantic that would, ironically, cause NW Europe to become much colder – so the AGW catastrophe theory was shown to not cause uniform warming.
That one had lots of gullible people running around in circles, worrying.
Now quietly forgotten.
———–
Jimbo says:
June 18, 2011 at 4:15 am
Dr. Ray Pierrehumbert
“……………then the next decade we had unusually cold winters,………”
This is a sign that he knows that their initial AGW speculation about milder NH winters is utter bull. He is setting up the escape route for when NH winters get colder. In 1998 Real Climate’s Gavin Schmidt ‘speculated’ in a peer reviewed Letter To Nature about milder NH winters as a result of the greenhouse effect. Now Dr. Ray Pierrehumbert is speculating about colder winters as a result of global warming.
These people will do anything to protect their religion, even up to the extent of making it UNfalsifiable. Sickening!
———-
jazznick says:
June 13, 2011 at 6:17 am
Another IPCC cock-up – Osvaldo Canziani, the then deputy head of the IPCC, had warned that “Venice is destined to disappear” within decades. Er NOT !
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/06/13/venice_not_in_peril/
———–
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/06/09/comparing-ipcc-1990-predictions-with-2011-data/
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/04/03/the-big-self-parodying-climate-change-blame-list/
[list of contradictory peer-reviewed predictions]
————–
EternalOptimist says:
June 10, 2011 at 1:17 am
Isn’t life funny.
We get told that the science is settled, the models are verified, the data is not fiddled , snow will soon be a rare event and there is a consensus.
When we say ‘but this isnt like the lab and simple lab approaches miss the point and the complexity’, we get villified, called deniers and they make videos of children deniers exploding in bloody tatters.
Then when the original predictions are out by a mile, Steve says ‘ this isnt like the lab and simple lab approaches miss the point and the complexity.’
maybe, just maybe, we were right all along.
——–
Some of Tim’s Predictions
The water problem is so severe for Adelaide that it may run out of water by early 2009.”
Current Adelaide dam levels – 84%
In June 2007, Flannery prophesied “Brisbane’s water supplies are so low they need desalinated water urgently, possibly in as little as 18 months”.
Current Brisbane dam levels – 87%.
(The $1.3 billion desalination plant at Tugun Queensland advocated by Flannery is now in mothballs):
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/tugun-desalination-plant-to-be-mothballed-20101205-18l30.html
In 2005, Flannery predicted Sydney’s dams could be dry in just two years.
Current Sydney dam levels – 72%
2004, Flannery said global warming would cause such droughts that “there is a fair chance Perth will be the 21st century’s first ghost metropolis”.
Perth to-day:
http://www.escapelocally.com.au/images/stories/perth-wa.jpg
(Although Perth dam levels are presently definitely low. Getting warm Tim.)
In 2008 he stated “This may be the Arctic’s first ice-free year”.
Sorry, Tim missed again. Even the Catlin Arctic Survey and the international conservation group WWF, believe that the Arctic will be ice free in the summer in about 20 years. I suspect even that may be wishful thinking. But the main question is why and what about the Southern Hemisphere?
What is Tim doing right now?
Tim is right at this moment in Adelaide as the Government’s Climate’s Commissioner preaching to the masses why a carbon tax is going to be good for us. I guess that this year we are stopping floods rather than droughts.
————
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/wheres_that_indian_crop_failure_the_warmists_predicted
Michael in Sydney says:
February 18, 2011 at 12:27 pm
Here is a good news story on the environment.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/recovery-in-full-flow-for-murray/story-fn59niix-1226008395465
It is about the Murray river in Australia coming back to life after a decade of drought. A good reminder that natural systems are often more resilient than we give them credit for.
————
johnb says:
February 12, 2011 at 10:00 am
Daily Caller has an article up (not by you) that shows the contradictions between the IPCC and Al Gore’s claim that global warming means more snow. From the article.
* “Snow season length and snow depth are very likely to decrease in most of North America … except in the northernmost part of Canada where maximum snow depth is likely to increase (Christensen et al., 2007).” (EPA)
* “Decreases in snowcover and increases in winter rain on bare soil will likely lengthen the erosion season and enhance erosion intensity.” (EPA)
* “Rising temperatures have generally resulted in rain rather than snow in locations and seasons where climatological average temperatures for 1961 to 1990 were close to freezing (0 °C).” (EPA)
* “As temperatures rise, the likelihood of precipitation falling as rain rather than snow increases, especially in autumn and spring at the beginning and end of the snow season, and in areas where temperatures are near freezing. Such changes are observed in many places, especially over land in middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, leading to increased rains but reduced snowpacks.” (IPCC)
http://dailycaller.com/2011/02/11/is-al-gore-wrong-on-the-environment-global-warming-is-not-to-blame-for-snow/#ixzz1Dlj4HVDL
———–
Urederra says:
February 4, 2011 at 10:28 am
“But no one who argues against the science of climate change has ever provided an alternative scientific theory that adequately satisfies the observable evidence or conforms to our understanding of physics, chemistry, and climate dynamics.”
And we don’t have to provide any alternative theory. A theory is bad when there is empirical data that cannot be explained by the current theory, and so far there is plenty of data that doesn’t fit with CAGW models:
-Temperatures are not rising as fast as CAGW predicts.
-Number of cyclones/hurricanes are not growing as CAGW predicts.
-Sea level rise is not accelerating as CAGW predicts.
-Ice caps are not melting as CAGW predicts, specially the south one.
-Glaciers are not melting as CAGW predicts.
-Winters are not milder as CAGW predicts.
… and on top of that, there is poor correlation between CO2 levels and temperature.
————
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/column_the_alarmists_have_taxed_our_creduility_once_too_often/
————-
http://joannenova.com.au/2011/01/busted-predictions-from-brazen-prophets/#more-12595
————-
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/i_dont_think_the_warmists_models_are_working/
—————–
James Sexton says:
December 30, 2010 at 9:51 am
http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2010/12/30/botched-environmental-forecasts/
Eight botched climate catastrophe predictions, with a couple of statements from Ehrlich and Oppenheimer. Its a fun read, and perhaps some jewels to find in Ehrlich’s and Oppenheimer’s statements, and a possible template for a future post on WUWT?
——–
Verity Jones says:
December 19, 2010 at 3:33 am
There needs to be a reminder that AGW has been saying that the trend towards a Positive NAO (with mild winters in UK and Europe) was probably anthropogenic in origin and that models predicted a continuation of this tendancy. IF we revert to negative NAO dominance they cannot suddenly change their tune.
http://diggingintheclay.wordpress.com/2010/12/18/nao-is-the-winter-of-our-discontent/
————-
http://www.c3headlines.com/predictionsforecasts/
Hilarious!
————–
richcar 1225 says:
November 22, 2010 at 5:25 pm
The latest paper from Koutsoyiannis et al., compares GCM models with actual measurements of temperature history and precipitation for regional areas of the US and finds the models have failed miserably. This is what the scientific method is about.
http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/section?content=a928051726&fulltext=713240928
————–
matt v. says:
November 4, 2010 at 8:20 am
Don Gardner wrote another interesting article called “Foredoomed is not forewarned” about the flaws of alarmist forecasts.
http://www.ottawacitizen.com/health/Foredoomed+forearmed/3663193/story.html
—————
Bob (Sceptical Redcoat) says:
October 22, 2010 at 2:20 pm
Climate Science (Roger Pielka Sn) reports on a new study by a group of hydrologists that compares climate models results with observations:
http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/
The abstract of their paper says:
We compare the output of various climate models to temperature and precipitation observations at 55 points around the globe.We also spatially aggregate model output and observations over the contiguous USA using data from 70 stations, and we perform comparison at several temporal scales, including a climatic (30-year) scale. Besides confirming the findings of a previous assessment study that model projections at point scale are poor, results show that the spatially integrated projections are also poor.
———–
Bill Illis says:
October 22, 2010 at 6:06 am
I guess everyone recognizes this is just a GISS ModelE climate model output. It is based on calculations that James Hansen would have put into the model.
So generally, one either accepts James Hansen view of the world or one would ask for additional empirical data to be measured to back up the theoritical calculations (ie what we used to call the scientific method).
What does the empirical data tell us (with regard to this paper’s and the theory’s proposition that GHGs control 85% of the water vapour levels as well).
– Total specific humidity water vapour levels are completely FLAT (according to the NCEP reanalysis since 1948) or, (according to Hadcruh – Willet et al 2008 – at the highest estimate), there is an increase at about the levels expected by the theory. There is also annual variation tied closely to the ENSO. GISS ModelE would be calculating about a 1/2oth increase in specific humidity (and more-or-less constant relative humidity) over the period covered by this data.
http://img147.imageshack.us/img147/7908/specifichumidity.png
http://img21.imageshack.us/img21/3537/relativehumidity.png
http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcruh/CRUBLENDNEWjul08_ts_q_global7303.png
– Global Precipitation Levels are essentially FLAT since 1979 and precipitation on land is FLAT since 1950. GISS ModelE would be predicting about a 1.5% increase over the time period covered by this data.
http://img684.imageshack.us/img684/8974/trenberthprecipitation.png
http://img215.imageshack.us/img215/2026/riverdischargeandprecip.png
– And there has been a general decline in the level of cloudiness according to the ISCCP project – GISS ModelE would be predicting about a 1% increase in cloudiness over the period covered by this data.
http://isccp.giss.nasa.gov/zD2BASICS/B8glbp.anomdevs.jpg
http://isccp.giss.nasa.gov/climanal7.html
So, on the whole, the theory and ModelE is not matching up to the empirical data.
———–
Andrew30 says:
October 3, 2010 at 5:23 pm
Someone replied to one of my comments of a MSM site with the following:
“Well you do realize that evidence is essentially just a successfully observed prediction.”
And directed me to http://www.skepticalscience.com.
So I bring you:
http://www.skepticalscience.com (2008) VS. http://www.skepticalscience.com (2010)
(A view from the wayback Machine.)
2008:
web.archive.org/web/20080507024314/
http://www.skepticalscience.com/ocean-and-global-warming.htm
“If the ocean was feeding atmospheric warming, the oceans would be cooling.”
“The other consequence of the warming ocean is it means there is additional “warming in the pipeline”. Even if CO2 emissions were to start falling now, we already face further global warming of about another half degree by the end of the 21st century”
2010:
http://www.skepticalscience.com/cooling-oceans.htm
“Claims that the ocean has been cooling are correct. Claims that global warming has stopped are not.”
What to make of this:
“If the ocean was feeding atmospheric warming, the oceans would be cooling.”
“Claims that the ocean has been cooling are correct.”
–
2008:
http://web.archive.org/web/20080502163611/
http://www.skepticalscience.com/satellite-measurements-warming-troposphere.htm
“Climate models predict the troposphere should show greater warming than the surface”
2010:
http://www.skepticalscience.com/satellite-measurements-warming-troposphere.htm
“At least two other groups keep track of the tropospheric temperature using satellites and they all now show warming in the troposphere that is consistent with the surface temperature record.”
Hmmm, falsified prediction?
2008: “Climate models predict the troposphere should show greater warming than the surface”
2010: “warming in the troposphere that is consistent with the surface temperature record.”
–
Hurricane intensity as Evidence of global warming.
2008
web.archive.org/web/20080719031424/
http://www.skepticalscience.com/hurricanes-global-warming.htm
Strong links between Global Warming and hurricanes.
“While the empirical evidence linking global warming and hurricane intensity seems robust, it has no bearing on the central question of whether human CO2 emissions are causing global warming.”
2010:
http://www.skepticalscience.com/Hurricanes-And-Climate-Change-Boy-Is-This-Science-Not-Settled.html
“And to cap it off, two recent peer-reviewed studies completely contradict each other. One paper predicts considerably more storms due to global warming. Another paper suggests the exact opposite – that there will be fewer storms in the future.”
The data that was presented in the 2010 page ends in 2007, which is Not as expected (sort of)
Hmmm,
In 2008 the Empirical Evidence was the ‘robust’ connection ‘linking global warming and hurricane intensity’.
In 2010: No correlation whatsoever.
It was fun to be able to post using only the http://www.skepticalscience.com website and still show the Global Warming Believers’ falsified predictions, non-correlations, blatant contradictions, etc. There are more wayback sites for http://www.skepticalscience.com. I just don’t have the time to write them all up.
It was fun though.
—————
climatepatrol says:
June 25, 2010 at 3:19 am
@ur momisuglyJeff Green
June 23, 2010 at 5:01 pm
http://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php?a=13
Other results successfully predicted and reconstructed by models
My answers are in capital letters. No offense.
•Cooling of the stratosphere OK
•Warming of the lower, mid, and upper troposphere
THE LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERE IS SUPPOSED TO WARM 1.2 TIMES FASTER THAN THE SURFACE, WHICH IS NOT THE CASE. LOWER TROPOSPHERE WARMS ABOUT THE SAME OVER THE SEA BUT LESS OVER CONTINENTS. TYPICALLY UHI. AND UPPER TROPOSPHERE SURPRISINGLY COOLS FROM THE STRATOSPHERE.
•Warming of ocean surface waters (Cane 1997)
AND NO WARMING SINCE 2000 (Lymann 2010) OWING TO A LACK OF WATER VAPOR FEEDBACK (Pielke S.R.
•Trends in ocean heat content (Hansen 2005)
STOPPED SINCE 2003
•An energy imbalance between incoming sunlight and outgoing infrared radiation (Hansen 2005).
SURE, NOT ALL RADIATION ENERGY WILL RAISE TEMPERATURE AND AS TO THE MISSING AGW-SUBMARINE, SCIENTISTS ARE STILL SEARCHING THE OCEANS .
•Amplification of warming trends in the Arctic region (NASA observations)
THEY DIDN’T PREDICT THAT, IT HAPPENED BEFORE.
—————-
Jimbo (12:58:06) :
Here are some IPCC predictions / forecasts / scenarios against ‘observations’.
http://www.ianschumacher.com/img/TempsvsIPCCModelsWM.jpg
http://deepclimate.files.wordpress.com/2009/05/ar4-a1b-a2.gif
http://joannenova.com.au//globalwarming/graphs/akasofu/akasofu_graph_little_ice-age.gif
Here are some general failed predictions and forecasts from warmists.
http://www.c3headlines.com/predictionsforecasts/
————
Pompous Git:
AGW theory has made a number of testable predictions, such as the existence of a hotspot in the equatorial troposphere, decreasing summer soil moisture in Asia where most of the warming has occurred, continuing increase in atmospheric methane etc. that have been falsified by observation. It behooves the AGW proponents to explain these difficulties adequately. They don’t; they claim these observations are “consistent with” the theory. Thus AGW is metaphysical, rather than hard science as an engineer, chemist, geologist etc would define their sciences.
————–
Continental temp trends vs. predicitions:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/29/when-results-go-bad/
—————
M. Simon (13:18:50) :
Causal relationships don’t require the dependent variable to change in lock step with one independent variable with other independent variables are involved.
So true. Except lock step was the prediction.
Less snow in winter was predicted. Nothing about a chance of the snowiest winter ever.
———–
aMINO aCIDS iN mETEORITES (18:49:24) :
Increased snow and global warming predictions fit hand in glove—so global warming advocates like Al Gore would say—i.e., warmest decade on record has produced the greatest snowfall on record. But this theorized increase in snow from global warming is supposed to be in an ever smaller and smaller circle in the Northern Hemisphere with the circumference of that diminishing circle around the world approaching closer, year by year, to the North Pole.
But that isn’t happening. The area of snow cover is not retreating towards the north but it is covering a greater area heading south. The area of snow cover at wintertime around the world in the Northern Hemisphere is growing bigger not smaller.
————
Ed Forbes (14:19:59) :
DR (09:34:14) :
“..Does anyone have the link to Boxer, Byrd et al preaching about the lack of snow for previous recent years in the U.S. as proof positive of global warming catastrophe?..”
Try this one:
Breitbart TV looks back on Byrd, Boxer, Klobuchar blaming lack of snow on AGW
http://www.looktruenorth.com/limited-government/climate-change/11244-breitbart-tv-looks-back-on-byrd-boxer-klobuchar-blaming-lack-of-snow-on-agw.html
————
Eric Gisin (17:54:48) :
Long before the Goracle’s Inconceivable Truth, there was After the Warming with James Burke on TV in 1990. Even more alarmist, it made the following predictions (from Amazon):
1997-1999, Massive drought in Ukraine and US: American grain failure, hundreds of thousands die of starvation
2000, sea levels up 1′ since 1994 (in reality, it was about 1″)
2007, no water in Mexico City, 3rd world coastal regions destroyed by hurricanes, causing mass migration
2008, Major nuclear power plant accidents, and 100’s of thousands dead from hurricanes in Miami and other places
2010, millions more dead from starvation… and 3 degrees warming in the last 15 years (there has been only about 0.45 degrees, and no warming in the last 10 years)
You would think anyone watching it recently would rate it poorly. Not so! 7.9/10 on IMDB.
The disconnect between reality and green apocalypse is unbelievable. Just wait 20 years and see how wrong Gore was.
http://www.amazon.com/After-Warming-VHS-James-Burke/product-reviews/B00004CMBT/
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0334827/
————-
Genghis (18:47:02) :
Didn’t anyone read this report? http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/02/19/north-america-snow-models-miss-the-mark/
All nine of the models predicted decreasing snow extent. Gore is claiming increasing snow extent, after the fact.
————–
Peer reviewed papers such as Paltridge’s “Trends in middle- and upper-level tropospheric humidity from NCEP reanalysis data” and Solomon’s “Contributions of Stratospheric Water Vapor to Decadal Changes in the Rate of Global Warming” show that specific humidity in the radiative zone has gone down as CO2 has gone up; a negative feedback in contradiction to the assumptions built into all of the IPCC climate models.
A key requirement of AGW has been contradicted by the data.
Mike Ramsey
————
John Blake (18:51:24) :
Back in mid-January 2009, GISS/NASA’s benighted James Hansen issued a pronunciamento to effect that ‘09 would register as “the hottest year on record.” Of course he said the same for 2006, 2007, and 2008, all of which tumbled out-of-bed on the downside.
anticlimactic says:
August 13, 2011 at 1:16 pm
Well stated anticlimactic. Those are my sentiments exactly.
Douglas
Kelvin Vaughan says:
August 13, 2011 at 1:22 pm
John M says:
August 13, 2011 at 12:50 pm
Canada did not import any wheat back in the cold 1970s. It started in the warming 1980s and it has been increasing every year, despite warmer weather. Go figure that.
And yet yields for all crops, including wheat have steadily increased.
Go figure that.
It’s because the land is being converted to vinyards John.
=================================================
That would be unlikely Kelvin as the wine growing regions (South Ontario and B.C.) are not known for wheat production (Saskatchewan, Alberta and Manitoba). I suspect the import of wheat into Canada has something to do with long term wheat contracts in western Canada (wheat heads west to China and Japan) versus increasing demand for wheat in eastern Canada (Ontario and Quebec). It is probably easier to import wheat in the east than upset long terms contracts in the west.
If the proposed $23 per ton isn’t bad enough, imagine the effects on our economy when it increases to $131 + (our Treasury projections). I’ll bet the masses aren’t aware of this and I’m sure Gillard isn’t going to advertise it.
http://www.climatechangedenier.com.au/carbon-tax/the-carbon-price-will-always-be-increasing/
About six months ago I wrote a letter to my Federal MP ( Laura Smyth, Federal Member for La Trobe; Labor) and asked some simple questions:
In light of the relatively low level of human population and correspondingly low human emissions of carbon dioxide at the time:
1. What caused the Roman Warming Period?
2. What caused the Medieval Warming Period?
3. What caused the Little Ice Age?
4. What caused each of these climate events to reverse?
I am still waiting for my MP to acknowledge my letter; and I am still waiting for a response to my questions.
However, a few months ago, the Federal Government did organize a “community forum” in my area in which a group of “climate experts” were to address the peasants, and answer their questions.
In the event, “the experts” were a group of high school students, and a couple of university grad students.
With such a level of expertise, it is any wonder that we are all doomed?
climatepatrol said @ur momisugly June 25, 2010 at 3:19 am
“Pompous Git:
AGW theory has made a number of testable predictions, such as the existence of a hotspot in the equatorial troposphere, decreasing summer soil moisture in Asia where most of the warming has occurred, continuing increase in atmospheric methane etc. that have been falsified by observation. It behooves the AGW proponents to explain these difficulties adequately. They don’t; they claim these observations are “consistent with” the theory. Thus AGW is metaphysical, rather than hard science as an engineer, chemist, geologist etc would define their sciences.”
I agree. And your point is? I believe that this comment is my first in this thread…
anticlimactic says:
August 13, 2011 at 1:16 pm
“With regards to AGW I am still really puzzled as to why so many politicians around the world are so hell bent on damaging their economies and so destroying the lives of their people for no perceptible gain.
You’re starting to figure it out… they are all taking their orders from the same source. It doesn’t matter if they are left-wing or right-wing, they all have some form of climate change secretary/minister/whatever who is doing exactly what they’re told and completely ignoring the public’s opinion. They are not stupid; or out of touch, nor insane, they know exactly what it is they are doing. This is not coincidental I can guarantee you that. Neither is the impending global financial collapse. Something is very wrong and people just don’t even notice.
As they say in Shoebiz: “SarcOn” – The five GPM’s (Global Political Model) all forecast that any challange to the Gillard government will fail regardless of who or what is thrown into the mix of opposition. The GPM’s, use super complex progrums and algrarytheums on superdupper lightspeed Chinese modified Western patent computers. The data is a constant flow of news headlines from the coaligned mass media outlets of the MSM and each government’s very own intelligence estimates and public relations news releases. Nothing is, or ever will be, more accurate or telling. Any revolt will be squashed before it begins. Government computer programmers have already divised the necessary code to erase anyone who even sneezes in the wrong direction; it will be as if that person never existed, every scrap of data on such people will be deleted, they will starve to death for want of everything. “SarcOff”
Can’t believe anyone has any confidence in Gillard, so why no vote of NO CONFIDENCE?
PS: Hope you truckers got yer Ears On, time for a little Old CONVOY!
A fine fighting speech by Archibald, tho the reference to “unleash the Furies” treads close to a call for violence, even clothed in classical allusion, IMO.
But, “In fact, the temperature of planet today is almost the same as it was when satellites first started measuring it in 1979.” Say what? What data set is he looking at, and what is his value for “almost” over a 30 year period?
Convoy is about to start:
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/protesters_start_your_engines/
Ian says:
August 12, 2011 at 10:21 pm
“… Dorothy McKellar in her poem …”
Actually her name was Dorothea MacKellar. And although in her old age she once succumbed to the influence of modern degenerates and mistakenly recited the words “ragged mountain ranges”, she had correctly described them in her poem as being “rugged.”
The language skills of the present generation might be said to be “ragged” but our mountains certainly are not.