Bastardi: Science and reality point away, not toward, CO2 as climate driver

Guest post by Joe Bastardi, WeatherBell

With the coming Gorathon to save the planet around the corner ( Sept 14) , my  stance on the AGW issue has been drawing more ire from those seeking to silence people like me that question their issue and plans. In response, I want the objective reader to hear more about my arguments made in a a brief interview on FOX News as to why I conclude CO2 is not causing changes of climate and the recent flurry of extremes of our planet. I brought up the First Law of Thermodynamics and LeChateliers principle.

The first law of thermodynamics is often called the Law of Conservation of Energy. This law suggests that energy can be transferred in many forms but can not be created or destroyed.

For the sake of argument, let’s assume those that believe CO2 is adding energy to the system are correct. Okay, how much? We have a gas that is .04% of the atmosphere that increases 1.5 ppm yearly and humans contribute 3-5% of that total yearly, which means the increase by humans is 1 part per 20 million. In a debate, someone argued just because it is small doesn’t mean it is not important. After all even a drop with 0.042 gm of arsenic could kill an adult. Yes but put the same drop in the ocean or a reservoir and no one dies or gets ill.

Then there is the energy budget. The amount of heat energy in the atmosphere is dwarfed by the energy in  y the oceans. Trying to measure the changes from a trace gas in the atmosphere, if it were shown to definitively play a role in change (and it never has), is a daunting task.

NASA satellites suggest that the heat the models say is trapped, is really escaping to space, that the ‘sensitivity’ of the atmosphere to CO2 is low and the model assumed positive feedbacks of water vapor and clouds are really negative. Even IPCC Lead Author Kevin Trenberth said “Climatologists are nowhere near knowing where the energy goes or what the effect of clouds is…the fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment, and it is a travesty that we can’t.”

We are told that the warming in the period of warming from 1800 was evidence of man-made global warming. They especially point to the warming from 1977 to 1998 which was shown by all measures and the fact that CO2 rose during those two decades. And we hear that this warming has to be man-made with statements like “what else could it be?”

However, correlation does not mean causation. Indeed inconveniently despite efforts to minimize or ignore it, the earth cooled from the 1940s to the late 1970s and warming ceased after 1998, even as CO2 rose at a steady pace. Some have been forced to admit some natural factors may play a role in this periodic cooling. If that is the case, why could these same natural factors play a key role in the warming periods too.

Ah, but here is where the 1st law works just fine. After a prolonged period of LACK OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY, the world was quite cold around 1800. The ramping up of solar activity after 1800 to the grand maximum in the late twentieth century could be argued as the ultimate cause of any warming through the introduction of extra energy into the oceans, land and then the atmosphere.

The model projections that the warming would be accelerating due to CO2 build up are failing since the earth’s temps have leveled off the past 15 years while CO2 has continued to rise.

Then there is a little matter of real world observation of how work done affects the system it is being done on. When one pushes an empty cart and then stops pushing, the cart keeps moving until the work done on it is dissipated. How is it, that the earth’s temperature has leveled off, if CO2, the alleged warming driver continues to rise?

The answer is obvious. They have it backwards. It is the earth’s temperature (largely the ocean) which is driving the CO2 release into the atmosphere. That is what the ice cores tell us and recently that Salby showed using isotopes in an important peer review paper. These use real world observations not tinker toy models nor an 186 year old theory that has never been validated.

Finally, as to the matter of LeChateliers principle. The earth is always in a state of imbalance and weather is the way the imbalances are corrected in the atmosphere. Extreme weather occurs when factors that increase imbalances are occurring. The extremes represent an attempt to return to a state of equilibrium.

The recent flurry of severe weather –  for instance, record cold and snow, floods, tornadoes,, is much more likely to be a sign of cooling rather than warming. The observational data shows the earth’s mid levels have cooled dramatically and ocean heat content and atmospheric temperatures have been stable or declined. Cooling atmospheres are more unstable and produce greater contrasts and these contrasts drive storms, storms drive severe weather. A warmer earth produces a climate optimum with less extremes as we enjoyed in the late 20th century and other time in history when the great civilizations flourished.

Time will provide the answer. Over the next few decades, with the solar cycles and now the oceanic cycles changing towards states that favor cooling, there should be a drop in global temperatures as measured by objective satellite measurement, at least back to the levels they were in the 1970s, when we first started measuring them via an objective source. If temperatures warm despite these natural cycles, you carry the day. We won’t have to wait the full 20-30 year period. I believe we will have our answer before this decade is done.

UPDATE: I’m told that a follow up post – more technically oriented will follow sometime next week. Readers please note that the opinion expressed here is that of Mr. Bastardi, at his request. While you may or may not agree with it, discuss it without resorting to personal attacks as we so often see from the Romm’s and Tamino’s of the nether climate world. Also, about 3 hours after the original post, I added 3 graphics from Joe which should have been in the original, apologies.  – Anthony

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Houndish
August 12, 2011 4:54 pm

Great observations Joe!
Also, the tropospheric changes that occur with increased and decreased particle & energy obsorbtion into the vanallen belts presents options that haven’t been well studied. As you may know, during periods of solar inactivity, the belts can and do subside to near zero. The migration of energies through the magnetosphere and all the spheres held within it, are also not well studied.
As the earth moves through its magnetospheric polarization changes (675 to1.1 million years), many geophysical properties are altered and like the weather and climate, the geomagnetic configuration of our planet is never static.
Cheers:)

August 12, 2011 5:04 pm

Thanks Joe. It has long been my belief that the quickest way to make someone angry is to be right, especially when you challenge their beliefs or money.
I can’t take credit for this idea, someone else posted this in the comments here at WUWT some time ago. (Whoever originally had this idea, feel free to call me out.) You might can use this in your arguments. When you turn the oven to 350 degrees (F for us Americans), is the oven instantly at 350? When you put a frozen turkey in the oven, does it immediately unthaw and cook all the way through? When you turn the oven off, does it immediately return to room temperature even if you have the oven door open when you turn it off? Suppose the oven is already at 350, if you turn the temperature down to 275, does the oven immediately drop to 275? A less active sun doesn’t immediately lower earth’s temperature just like lower the oven temperature does not immediately lower the oven temperature.

Steve in SC
August 12, 2011 5:09 pm

That has all been patently obvious from the very beginning.
Any other conclusion has to be either political or religious.
Then again, nobody ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the American public.

George E. Smith
August 12, 2011 5:18 pm

Le chatalier’s Principle is a lot more widespread than simply shifting Chemical reaction equilibria.
For example, in modern LED die, a lot of the generated radiation gets trapped inside the die by Total Internal Reflection. This trapped radiation crosses back and forth inside the die near the junction which also happens to be a good photo-detector diode, for the same general range of wavelengths, that the LED generates. So the LED acting as a photo-detector, generates a photo-current from this trapped radiation, and that photo-current is opposed in direction to the externally applied current, and acts to oppose the emission of more light. Externally, the LED is made to appear as if it has a higher internal impedance than it is supposed to have, as raising the drive Voltage, does not result in the expected increase in current.
In the case of earth’s atmosphere, more warming results in more water vapor, which traps more incoming solar energy, and stops it from reaching the ground (deep oceans) which results in a cooling response. Yes it’s the Water !!

Jeremy
August 12, 2011 5:21 pm

Oh that Joe Bastardi, so crazy for thinking that reality is revealed in time, rather than a result of carefully created computer simulations. What a nutcase! Only a fool doubts the almighty computer!
/do I even need to?

Steptoe Fan
August 12, 2011 5:24 pm

its just too much simple, common scientific, current knowledge. unless a person has some hidden agenda, how can anyone with education, ignore the logic of this article ? the agw types have too much pride and ego invested now, they will not let go. if nothing else, they cling to their political agenda of getting the planet off of coal/oil/gas all the while, not allowing realistic alternatives to come forward. solar and wind will never be capable of sustaining our ( earth’s ) needs.
how can you fight the changes done to U.S. civil law that allow every eco facist group to file a complaint whenever ‘they’ think the EPA is not doing anything/enough ?
how can you stop a president who lacks a scientific bases to objectively probe those that his party have appointed ?
you know the next big push will be yet again, a shift, as they have to grudgingly acknowledge that there may be a several decades of cooling and then, global warming will fire up anew.
these are the people who cannot let go – and their ‘church’ has many disciples.

Matt
August 12, 2011 5:28 pm

CO2 driven climate change (natural and otherwise) does not contradict the first law of thermodynamics. Warming of the earth from increased greenhouse gases is just a trapping of more thermal energy from the sun. This is not the creation of energy. It is just a change in the flow of energy. I also fail to understand your point in bringing up La Chatalier’s Principle (except to try desperately to sound like you know what you are talking about). It actually *goes against* your point. If the earth’s atmosphere traps more IR, then classical thermodynamics predicts that its *temperature will increase* until it reaches a new equilibrium. Your claim that the increase in CO2 is too small to affect such a change is easily contradicted by a simple back-of-the-envolope calculation that shows the warming from CO2 double to be about 2 deg. F. You could, of course, evoke negative feedbacks as a hypothetical mechanism to counterbalance the of a CO2 increase on temp, but then you are no longer talking about Le Chatelier’s Principle.
Please learn some physics, Mr. Bastardi.

Chris Colose
August 12, 2011 5:35 pm

This thread will be a good test to see how skeptical WUWT readers are of their own skepticism.
All of Bastardi’s talking points here can be traced back a long time, and they reflect severe unfamiliarity with the field and have been addressed countless times. Over at Tamino’s, he left a message full or errors at which I challenged him to an open debate on the matter.
http://tamino.wordpress.com/2011/08/10/settled-science/#comment-53136
I would like to how well he can perform when required to scientifically address criticisms of his claims.

August 12, 2011 5:41 pm

Matt says:
“Your claim that the increase in CO2 is too small to affect such a change is easily contradicted by a simple back-of-the-envolope calculation that shows the warming from CO2 double to be about 2 deg. F.”
There are plenty of much more educated climatologists who would reject your “back of the envelope calculation.” But at least it isn’t as preposterous as the IPCC’s number.

Steve in SC
August 12, 2011 5:52 pm

Matt: see my previous comment, particularly the last part.

Editor
August 12, 2011 5:58 pm

@Chris_Colose: you have to pick your battles a little better. Joe Bastardi is not an academic researcher but a private sector meteorologist. He is an advocate for his point of view based upon the knowledge he accumulates. He is putting out his opinions for public consumption but there is no accountability implied…
REPLY: Yes, this is the same silly claim that comes up again and again, one one hand when a they lose a point in an argument they’ll claim “but he’s not a climate scientist, so his opinions don’t matter” then when they feel they have the upper hand we’ll hear, “he’s not scientifically rigorous enough, his arguments pale in comparison to our best climate scientists”. – Anthony

SethP
August 12, 2011 5:59 pm

Forgive my ignorance, but I don’t recall anyone claiming that CO2 adds energy to the system but it traps or slows energy leaving the system.
From what I took away from Dr. Spencer in relation of the first law is that there must be a time lag for energy to be transferred within the system therefore one cannot see positive feedback with a zero, or brief time lag.
Some people are severely muddying the waters on this topic by making it appear that Spencer is claiming that AGW is premised on CO2 “creating” heat as if the glass in a greenhouse is the source of its heat! I don’t think Bastardi’s articulation on this is helping, see:
http://climaterealists.com/?id=8204
for just one example of people wiping up the floor with this logic. Someone “Dr. Spencer” has to clarify this “1st law” argument as it is getting out of hand!

Doug Proctor
August 12, 2011 6:01 pm

The “missing” heat in the oceans that shows up when the ARGO floats pop into the database, the increasing sea-level rise that shows up when the satellite data begins, the non-random corrections that show up as progressive and directional (warmth) as time and urban populations develop, the additional Arctic heat, reduced, “unprecedented” ice cover that shows up once we focus on measuring it – all these things strike me as evidence that ACCURACY, not precision, dogs the temperature and other climate change issues. ACCURACY is never questioned. Our statisticians give us data to several decimal points on data that is largely assumed to be correct within its observational or measurement limits. But is that so?
Michael Mann’s hockey stick was about accuracy, not precision, regardless of the error bars. The tree rings did not and do not give a good indication either of actual temperatures or of variations from those temperatures. Trenberth’s global heat calculations and his “missing” 0.85 W/m2 assume that the values we derive are accurate as well as having good precision. I question the accuracy portion.
Certainty as argued looks to error bars by human, mechanical and statistical introduction. We get graphs that show linear trends to data that, by eye, show cyclic trends or the combination, at least, of several linear trends. Using one linear trend when a series exists may help you to derive a 3 decimal place equation, but it will be inaccurate or, as the layman says, “wrong”.
Certainty as per the IPCC/Gore/Hansen is a sham, a terrible, terrible sham. Inaccurate corrections for UHIE do not reduce the UHIE error bar but change it. Inaccurate accounting for the heat balance on the earth does not go away because you measured ten times every factor you could think of: it explains, instead, why you can’t reconcile the in-and-out observations.
The IPCC claims that they know things with certainty, meaning 95%, but that is all math and algorithm. The accuracy of representation of the world by the math and algorithms is not 95%. That is the true lie being told: that we know what is important and what is not, and how we measure gives us unique and true pictures of what is. Thus Hansen can ignore both satellite data and HadCru data despite the differences in what they show the only world we have. He is not called on the carpet about accuracy, only the precision with which he gives his numbers.
If this was a murder trial and Hansen/IPCC were the prosecutors, the defendant would be sipping cocktails in Las Vegas in no time. Trenberth is, in effect, arguing about a missing knife when no one has been shown that a knife ever existed to begin with.

Barry
August 12, 2011 6:01 pm

Matt says:
August 12, 2011 at 5:28 pm
“…..a simple back-of-the-envolope calculation that shows the warming from CO2 double to be about 2 deg. F”.
Matt, it’s logarithmic against more CO2 causing more warming. Once a certain amount of CO2 absorbs all the energy from its particular specturm of wavelengths that stimulate it, more CO2 has nothing left to absorb….. Triple it or quadruple it, there is still nothing left to absorb! Sheesh!!!

August 12, 2011 6:03 pm

I’m sorry, but I stopped reading as soon as I hit the “CO2 is a trace gas” argument.
I don’t believe the AGW BS, but that’s just not a good counter.

Theo Goodwin
August 12, 2011 6:05 pm

Matt says:
August 12, 2011 at 5:28 pm
“CO2 driven climate change (natural and otherwise) does not contradict the first law of thermodynamics. Warming of the earth from increased greenhouse gases is just a trapping of more thermal energy from the sun.”
It is not actually warming; rather, as you will surely agree, it is slower cooling. The blanket effect of CO2 might very well slow Earth’s cooling but it cannot warm Earth. So, any temperature change caused by CO2 should show up as slower cooling in the evenings. CO2 cannot cause higher high temperatures because CO2 does not add heat to Earth.

Steptoe Fan
August 12, 2011 6:07 pm

matt says :
Warming of the earth from increased greenhouse gases is just a trapping of more thermal energy from the sun ….
so, this energy just STAYS in the atmosphere, lower or upper, for ever ? day or night, across the seasons ?
if your going to try and short sight the laws of thermo to make your arg you need to go back and really learn thermodynamics and a whole lot of additional science.

August 12, 2011 6:08 pm

Nobody claims that CO2 adds energy to the system. Energy comes from the sun and CO2 slows the loss of longwave energy into space.

Theo Goodwin
August 12, 2011 6:13 pm

Matt says:
August 12, 2011 at 5:28 pm
“You could, of course, evoke negative feedbacks as a hypothetical mechanism to counterbalance the of a CO2 increase on temp, but then you are no longer talking about Le Chatelier’s Principle.
Please learn some physics, Mr. Bastardi.”
As Arrhenius understood, for there to be more than the harmless warming that can be predicted from his equations, the only empirical science that Warmista use, there must be feedbacks which increase the effects of CO2. At present time, no one has done the research that would permit them to create physical hypotheses which could explain and predict one or more of the interesting feedbacks, such as physical hypotheses about cloud formation. Warmista have chosen to dwell within Gaia Models rather than enter the physical environment and do some empirical research. They are not scientists. And Matt, learn some physics beyond Arrhenius. Svensmark is doing excellent work at this time. Read Svensmark.

LazyTeenager
August 12, 2011 6:20 pm

Okay, how much? We have a gas that is .04% of the atmosphere that increases 1.5 ppm yearly and humans contribute 3-5% of that total yearly, which means the increase by humans is 1 part per 20 million.
——-
This looks wrong to me. As far as I am aware the yearly human contribution is near double the actual yearly increase, with the deficit going into the oceans and increased plant growth.

Richard M
August 12, 2011 6:24 pm

Increases in GHGs, including CO2, may slow the loss of LW energy by absorbing surface radiation … BUT, they also increase the radiation of heat from the atmosphere. Absorbtivity = Emissivity. When will anyone who supports AGW demonstrate these do not balance out? I’m still waiting.

LazyTeenager
August 12, 2011 6:27 pm

Then there is the energy budget. The amount of heat energy in the atmosphere is dwarfed by the energy in  y the oceans.
——–
Seems to some potential confusion between the budget, in other words ingoings and outgoings, and the accumulated amount.
To illustrate: I could claim just as validly that the yearly solar flux is small compared to the energy stored in the oceans. But this observation does not prove that the solar flux is irrelevant

It's always Marcia, Marcia
August 12, 2011 6:28 pm

It’s true, Fox is the channel of hot blonds.

LazyTeenager
August 12, 2011 6:35 pm

NASA satellites suggest that the heat the models say is trapped, is really escaping to space
———
Lots of sloppy terminology here.
The models do not say the heat is trapped. They say the rate of heat transfer to outer space is being reduced. The NASA satellites say exactly the same thing.
The NASA satellites do not say the sensitivity is low. Spencer says the climate sensitivity is low. Spencer Bases his claim on his interpretation of of the satellite measurements combined with a very simple model he devised.

Matt
August 12, 2011 6:36 pm

@ Barry
I agree with you that that back-of-the-envolope calculations is not enough to describe the earth’s climate. My only point is that it contradicts Bastardi’s claims that the CO2 change is “too small” to have an effect. Also, to argue against that 2 degree warming requires one to evoke the existence of negative feedbacks and that really has nothing to do with Le Chatillier’s Principle in any general sense.
@Smokey
The logarithmic effect of increased CO2 is already taken into account in that calculation. The claim that the CO2 heat absorption is already saturated is just plain wrong.
@ Theo Goodwin
I am familiar with Svensmark. And I appreciate that he at least has a scientifically informed position. Mr Bastardi does not. I don’t understand why this blog doesn’t vet its own material and why it lets people like Bastardi spew incorrect information. This kind of garbage just makes blogs like this look trashy and wrong. I would really like to see a nuanced and scientifically informed case being made here. But, this kind of stuff is just wild, misinformed attacks even on matters (like basic thermodynamics) that are not even up for debate.
Your claim that the broad science community is not in touch with physical, empirical reality is thoroughly unfair. There are countless empirical measurements of climate sensitivities and feedbacks and for a wide variety of forcing mechanisms. You can always claim that it is “not enough” and that’s fine. But, don’t say that it doesn’t exist.

u.k.(us)
August 12, 2011 6:37 pm

Chris Colose says:
August 12, 2011 at 5:35 pm
This thread will be a good test to see how skeptical WUWT readers are of their own skepticism.
===========
Well, now that you announced it the world, I fear your test has been corrupted.
Maybe next time.

Theo Goodwin
August 12, 2011 6:41 pm

Chris Colose says:
August 12, 2011 at 5:35 pm
“This thread will be a good test to see how skeptical WUWT readers are of their own skepticism.”
Your sentence is incoherent. Being skeptical of one’s own skepticism? Is that like a double negative? Are you asking if WUWT readers will be skeptical of the skeptical position that they take toward science, especially climate science? What does that mean?
Whatever you mean, Mr. Bastardi is not a good choice to test our skepticism. For several years now, skeptical discussion of climate science, CAGW, and Warmista has been far deeper, broader, and more ramified than the points made by Mr. Bastardi.
By the way, ‘skeptical’ is the Brit spelling while ‘sceptical’ is the American spelling.

Randy
August 12, 2011 6:46 pm

Wow! So you’re saying there’s still a chance. For the simple common sense approach?

Scarface
August 12, 2011 6:47 pm

Dear mr. Bastardi,
Keep spreading the word. co2-levels follow semperature and cooling is expected. Do you think we may even see a decline or levelling of of Co2-levels?
Kind regards,
Scarface

Joe Bastardi
August 12, 2011 6:48 pm

In the end there is a simple test. Why cant all you folks that get your kicks out of chipping away at arguments to hide this reality see that. Temps are supposed to be rising, they are not! Co2 is rising. If the earths temperature cools the next 20 to 30 years, then its not co2. As it is what is so darn hard about using observational data that shows that the co2 is going up, the temps have leveled off ,and the resulting hypothesis that it is not co2! This can be tested since the major drivers of solar and natural cyclical cooling of the oceans can now be tested against the temperatures. Just what do you have to see, to see you are wrong? Please tell us all so we now what we can hold YOU ACCOUNTABLE FOR, since my side is getting blamed for every disaster that is occurring. That is what is maddening. You chop apart all I say, say I am wrong, yet I have the test to prove right or wrong that you cant and wont accept. The fact is the ideas I have used are simple and basic in concept.. we all know they are much more complex when put into a classroom situation. But that is the darn problem. Alot of you think this is a darn classroom, and its not. And because of that, the simple message of the concepts is the best, without having to write thesis on it. Though if that is the way you get paid, of course that is the field you wish to fight on. Fine. But alot of us that are out there making forecasts every day live in the real world of the weather and understand a heck of alot more about bottom lines than what people who theorize, but never actually do, understand. There are bottom lines when taking a stand.
You and I cant run away from the truth. Global temps have leveled off. CO2 is rising. If the temps fall back to where they were in the 70s at the start of the satellite era, will you admit you are wrong or not? I will admit I am wrong if it rises, but all I hear is chopping of this and that to hide the fact YOU ARE BUSTING AND HAVE BEEN FOR 15 YEARS NOW and trying to drive an agenda down the throat of the American people while doing it.
But is there anything that can happen, that you will admit you are wrong on. Of course not, because of the holier than thou attitude of many of the AGW crowd. Never wrong about anything. Its always something caused by someone who disagrees with them.
Perhaps if your livelihood depending on whether you were right and wrong and people paid you for the actual result you would understand. Anyone 15 years ago, predicting the earth would be as warm as all the IPCC projections would not be getting paid a thing now, because they were plainly wrong. Yet I dont get a nickel for sticking my neck out on this issue ( contrary to the nonsense that is printed about guys like me being in the pocket of this group or that), except fighting for what I believe is the right answer. Thats my agenda, get it right. And if I am right, then people will remember who fought for what was right, and who simply just swam with the tide because it seemed convenient and everyone else was doing it, and making a buck off it at that. Its That simple. Its just a big weather forecast to me, and I am sorry if that insults the intelligence of those who want it to be something that is so complex, so tough, that no one else need apply but those intelligent enough to understand that they know better than everyone else, and because of that are entitled to force everyone else to their position. Which in reality, is what this is all about.
So to all my detractors, will you actually admit you are wrong if the temps stay steady or fall? Or will you find yet another way to attack people that dare question your authority. You know hide behind the shield of “natural variability” saying it could account for this. Yet where were you with that forecast 15 years ago, or 20, when this hysteria started building. How do you know the natural variability wont, because of the sunspot cycles, return us to where we were 200 years ago. What will you say then after panicking the entire planet? You are currently BUSTING, and busting bad with the forecast as the Hadley Center records show, and people have every right to offer their ideas before you drive us all off a cliff that turns back progress and thwarts improvements that dealing with reality, not fantasy or virtual climate, can lead to for all of us.

LazyTeenager
August 12, 2011 6:50 pm

That is what the ice cores tell us and recently that Salby showed using isotopes in an important peer review paper.
———-
The ice core data tell us how things behaved a few thousand years ago. They do not tell us that things behave in the same way now. We are well on the way to consuming a significant fraction of the coal deposits that took 100 millions or so to accumulate. Therefore it is well worth considering that the rules of the game have changed.
The Salby paper fails because it predicts that ocean CO2 is going down when in fact it’s is going up.

commieBob
August 12, 2011 6:52 pm

Matt says:
August 12, 2011 at 5:28 pm
… Please learn some physics, Mr. Bastardi.

Oh dear me, Matt.
I expect that Mr. Bastardi has taken more physics courses than you have.
Your ‘simple’ back-of-the-envelope calculation needs some huge simplifying assumptions. One such is that each CO2 molecule almost immediately transfers its absorbed energy to the adjoining molecules of other gases in the atmosphere. Otherwise, the CO2 saturates and no extra energy is absorbed.
Actually, now that I think about it, your simple equation probably assumes that all energy is absorbed at a certain wavelength. Using that particular equation means that the concentration of CO2 doesn’t matter.
The calculation that correctly models the back radiation produced by CO2 is anything but simple. You could, of course, prove me wrong by producing what you think to be the relevant simple back-of-the-envelope equation that you think Mr. Bastardi doesn’t understand. I’m waiting (but I’m not holding my breath). While you’re at it, tell us all what simplifying assumptions your equation relies on, just to prove that you know what you’re talking about.

Steptoe Fan
August 12, 2011 7:07 pm

yes, Matt, lets see your equation, you say its simple and can be ( evidently ) written on the back of an envelope ( business ) !
please post it now.

Joe Bastardi
August 12, 2011 7:07 pm

Last comment.
Someone is right and someone is wrong. The coming years will show that, and its that simple. A bottom line. But the amount of effort trying to squelch the chance to even see what right and wrong is, when right now my side of the argument is carrying the day, should raise suspicions among any fair minded individual interested in this debate.
Let reality decide what was right and wrong. That is fine with me, but one has to wonder if its something many on the other side wish to avoid, given their insistence that the issue is settled.
You have eyes, you be the judge

Richard M
August 12, 2011 7:22 pm

LazyTeenager says:
August 12, 2011 at 6:50 pm
The Salby paper fails because it predicts that ocean CO2 is going down when in fact it’s is going up.

Which could be due to increases in oceanic vulcanism.
Isn’t it interesting that you make only a half hearted attempt to understand the situation. As soon as you can think of a potential problem with a thesis you stop thinking. Pretty much SOP for warmists.
None of us really knows and it’s that uncertainty that SHOULD keep true scientists on their toes. Not so much for lazy teens.

philincalifornia
August 12, 2011 7:41 pm

commieBob says:
August 12, 2011 at 6:52 pm
Matt says:
August 12, 2011 at 5:28 pm
The calculation that correctly models the back radiation produced by CO2 is anything but simple. You could, of course, prove me wrong by producing what you think to be the relevant simple back-of-the-envelope equation that you think Mr. Bastardi doesn’t understand. I’m waiting (but I’m not holding my breath). While you’re at it, tell us all what simplifying assumptions your equation relies on, just to prove that you know what you’re talking about.
=====================================================
You beat me to it cB. So …… Matt, back-of-the-envelope, eh ??
That should not take too long to type (or cut and paste), or even link to an Imageshack jpg of the back of your envelope.
While you’re at it, could you do another envelope back that takes into account tropical humidity ??

Theo Goodwin
August 12, 2011 7:54 pm

Matt says:
August 12, 2011 at 6:36 pm
OK, sweetheart, you asked for it. I dare you to produce one reasonably well confirmed physical hypothesis about forcings such as cloud formation created by Warmista. You cannot do it. Warmista have none and do not care to research them. Warmista are locked within their Radiation Only Gaia Models.

R. Shearer
August 12, 2011 7:54 pm

I’d also like to see this simple back of the envelope equation please.

KevinK
August 12, 2011 8:04 pm

Matt said;
“CO2 driven climate change (natural and otherwise) does not contradict the first law of thermodynamics. Warming of the earth from increased greenhouse gases is just a trapping of more thermal energy from the sun. This is not the creation of energy.”
Well, in fact some descriptions of the “AGW” effect that describe it in terms of “net energy gains”, “extra energy”, or “energy amplification” do indeed VIOLATE the first law of thermodynamics.
Also, in fact this whole terminology of “trapping heat” is currently, has been and always will be a VIOLATION of the laws of thermodynamics. It is impossible to trap heat…………… If I could “trap” heat I would be the wealthiest person in the history of the world (for reasons that those with just a superficial understanding of the laws of thermodynamics will probably NEVER understand).
Matt also wrote;
“It is just a change in the (“direction of the” (clarification suggested by this author)) flow of energy.”
Agreed, the “GHGs” do indeed redirect a VERY SMALL portion of the IR energy attempting to leave the Earth so that it takes another trip (or maybe ten more trips) though the atmosphere. Each time the energy is redirected something more than 50% is lost to space (fixed by the geometry of a sphere). So after as few as 10 “re-directions” the energy becomes much less than 1% of the departing energy. Does the term “diminishing returns” strike a bell here at all?
Each time the energy is redirected it travels as IR radiation at the speed of light (quite speedy last time I checked). So yes the “Greenhouse Effect” does indeed slow the flow of energy through the system, but due to the speeds involved it is only capable of delaying the release of heat by something like a few milliseconds to maybe a few hundred milliseconds. For a “higher equilibrium” temperature to result the delay must be greater than the period of the arriving energy (i.e. once every 24 hours (at the equator)).
A good analogy of this is the concept of “banking” your campfire at night so some of the coals are still warm enough to restart your campfire the next morning. The “GHE” shows no capacity to accomplish this feat. For reference each day contains ~86 million milliseconds, so a delay of tens/hundreds/thousands or even millions of milliseconds is not going to affect anything.
The “GHE” only changes the response time (how long it takes for the temperature to change after the energy input changes (i.e. sunrise and sunset)) of the gases in the atmosphere.
Please note that is is totally separate from the observations that higher average temperatures of the Earth are postulated to cause higher concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere, both effects can indeed occur in parallel without any significant causation being involved.
Although Mr. Bastardi has arrived at his conclusions via a different path than the one I took, I concur.
Cheers, Kevin.

bobdroege
August 12, 2011 8:06 pm

Actually, LeChatlier’s principle states that as you add CO2 to the atmosphere, the equilibrium reaction between the CO2 in the air and the CO2 dissolved in the water goes in the direction to reduce the amount initially added, thus the CO2 continues to dissolve into the oceans, and the oceans are a sink for the CO2 produced from the burning of fossil fuels.

Terry Jackson
August 12, 2011 8:22 pm

Joe B has accountability. He sells long-term weather forecasts. If he is less accurate than the free service there is no point in paying him. The same cannot be said for all participants in the debate.

DesertYote
August 12, 2011 8:23 pm

I would like to ask a serious question. I have asked a few times before, but with no responses. This is a real question. I am not trying to be a pain.
It seams to me that the contribution of CO2 to forcing is logarithmic to the the total forcing of all greenhouse gasses. That is give:
atmosphere A) with x PPM CO2 and y PPM of CH4, and
atmosphere B) with x PPM CO2 and 2y PPM of CH4,
the change in forcing from doubling the CO2 in A would be greater then the change in forcing from doubling the CO2 in B.
Is this correct?

Bernie McCune
August 12, 2011 8:27 pm

I tend to agree with Joe Bastardi’s premise that reality will show us the way, regardless of why it did so. Of course he has not simply pulled this view out of the air. And I have done some of my own regional studies of temperature in New Mexico and can see a 60 year cooling and heating trend over a period of about 140 years (PDO related?). We are now well into the cooling trend of that cycle so the next 10 to 20 years will show us whether this is a recurring natural cycle or not. My money is on Mr. Bastardi but maybe we are both wrong.
Scientifically, in my personal research, I have found that the significant gas is H20 (clouds and humidity) but that is a long and torturous academic battle with some specific data still missing. Mr. Bastardi has mostly circumvented this battle in his posting. So with the challenge posed and with what I have learned over the past several years, I would expect that he and I will win the argument. The other side is betting billions and ultimately trillions of $ of our money on their certainty that they will win the argument. I would not be so bold.
Bernie

MichaelM
August 12, 2011 8:40 pm

Joe, let me just say that 100’s of us support you and are huge fans of your openness, transparency, and courage to actually make a falsifiable hypothesis. I don’t know who is right – I do have my opinion at this point, but I can say one thing for certain: I trust you way more than any of the big names on the CAGW side of things.
_MichaelM

R. Gates
August 12, 2011 8:50 pm

The answer is obvious. They have it backwards. It is the earth’s temperature (largely the ocean) which is driving the CO2 release into the atmosphere. That is what the ice cores tell us and recently that Salby showed using isotopes in an important peer review paper.
_____
C’mon Joe, you can’t honestly believe this, or perhaps I am misunderstanding what you are saying. Are you suggesting that the last several century rise in CO2 is not due to the result of human burning of fossil fuels? I mean, it’s one thing to suggest that the Earth’s global temperature may not be as sensitive to the rise in CO2 as some would suggest, and I might even agree with that, but it is another thing entirely to suggest that human activity has not been the root cause of the rise in CO2 from 280 ppm to our current 390+ ppm.
For the past 800,000 years, as Milankovitch cycles have come and gone, we know that increased NH summer insolation sets off a series of positive feedback loops, one of which includes the outgassing of CO2 from the oceans, which in turns causes more warmth etc. But in all these 800,000 years or more, during interglacials, many of which were warmer than our current interglacial, CO2 never got over 300 ppm at the very most. Now we’re approaching 400 ppm in this interglacial. Gosh, what could the difference be? It is not that this interglacial is warmer than the others, but rather, that one particular species has found a way to release even more ancient carbon stored in fossil fuels. Humans are the difference this time Joe, not warmer oceans. The net cause of the rise in CO2 beyond what is typical in an interglacial is the human release of that carbon through the burning of fossil fuels.

August 12, 2011 8:58 pm

Agreed wholeheartedly with MichaelM
Damn straight!
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA

R. Gates
August 12, 2011 9:00 pm

Scarface says:
August 12, 2011 at 6:47 pm
Dear mr. Bastardi,
Keep spreading the word. co2-levels follow semperature and cooling is expected. Do you think we may even see a decline or levelling of of Co2-levels?
Kind regards,
Scarface
____
Not likely Scarface. The rise in CO2 beyond what is typical for an interglacial period has not been due to warmer temps, but the release of billions of tons of CO2 from the burning of fossil fuels. This interglacial is different in 2 significant respects from past interglacials over the past 800,000 years:
1) CO2 levels are higher
2) A species has learned how to release billions of tons of CO2 from fossil fuels.

Martin Clauss
August 12, 2011 9:01 pm

Give ’em hell, Joe ! And I fully agree with you, let’s just see what happens in the next 10 years or so ( . . . or maybe less . . !) with the sun, the PDO/AMO and other ocean cycles.

August 12, 2011 9:02 pm

R. Gates says….
“….perhaps I am misunderstanding what you are saying.”
You should start all your posts with that gem.

August 12, 2011 9:03 pm

Where’s Matt and his equation?
Can’t find any envelopes on a Friday night…..?

August 12, 2011 9:03 pm

R. Gates says:
August 12, 2011 at 8:50 pm
C’mon Joe, you can’t honestly believe this, or perhaps I am misunderstanding what you are saying
=======================
No….its actually c’mon Gates.
No one can honestly believe an iota of what you say.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA

August 12, 2011 9:06 pm

R. Gates says:
August 12, 2011 at 8:50 pm
The net cause of the rise in CO2 beyond what is typical in an interglacial is the human release of that carbon through the burning of fossil fuels.
=======================
What is “typical”? Hahahaha. HUH?
What “net cause” and what pure scientific evidence do you have to show for it?
Oh…I thought so. Nada.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA

Bill Taylor
August 12, 2011 9:08 pm

TY, i have been posting for many years, that the earths atmosphere is NEVER in equilibrium, that thermodynamics forces it to SEEK balance but that balance can never be found because the countless factors at play are constantly changing….the state of climate “change” is the 100% NATURAL state of the earths climate.
every record shows constant change never a balance.
to single out human co2 are a DRIVER is sheer LUNACY and i am tired of so called “scientists” LYING to the public.

August 12, 2011 9:19 pm

Bastardi is incorrect when he states that: “The model projections that the warming would be accelerating due to CO2 build up are failing since the earth’s temps have leveled off the past 15 years while CO2 has continued to rise.” Actually, a model projection cannot fail for it does not state a falsifiable claim. It is a prediction and not a projection that states a falsifiable claim but as the IPCC climatologist Kevin Trenberth states explicitly at http://blogs.nature.com/climatefeedback/2007/07/global_warming_and_forecasts_o.html, the IPCC models make projections not predictions. IPCC climatology is a failed science but it is not failed because the temps have leveled while the CO2 has risen. Rather, it is failed because its models do not make falsifiable claims.

Kozlowski
August 12, 2011 9:21 pm

“The answer is obvious. They have it backwards. It is the earth’s temperature (largely the ocean) which is driving the CO2 release into the atmosphere. That is what the ice cores tell us and recently that Salby showed using isotopes in an important peer review paper.”
R Gates:
You might be inferring more than was written. I did not read into it that he said humans aren’t releasing CO2, just that the implied cause and effect are opposite. Bastardi is not known for his eloquent diction. Agreed, that if indeed he is suggesting this, it is surprising and I would ask that it be backed up with some facts and data.
Thank you Anthony for your excellent BLOG, one that I enjoy reading daily.

Chris Edwards
August 12, 2011 9:24 pm

Funny how the pseudo smart asses disparage this guy but he predicts the weather a damn sight better than the AGW worshipping met offices, care to explain that and how he knows nothing??

Brian H
August 12, 2011 9:37 pm

Seth;
Note the details of the “lag” argument. It posits a one-time step function,in effect, as the energy delayed in its transit to space does escape after the lag. This results in a “steady state” addition of energy equivalent to the power of the trapped IR x the duration of the lag.
If you suddenly eliminated CO2 from the atmosphere, that heat would persist for the duration of the lag only, before tailing off to zero and thus restoring the “pre-CO2” steady state.
Since that lag is mere milliseconds, and the trapped IR’s power is a minute fraction of that of the total insolation, there’s not much there there.

wayne
August 12, 2011 9:37 pm

Re: Doug Proctor, August 12, 2011 at 6:01 pm:
Doug, thank you thank you for make a well needed statement on, specifically, precision and accuracy in this realm of climatology! I could never have said it so clearly myself ( though I have tried along the same lines in the past ).
Joe…. great interview and post kept clear for the more non-scientific.

Rhoda Ramirez
August 12, 2011 9:38 pm

Joe Bastardi presented a falsifiable scenario: If temps go up over the next decade then he’ll admit that he’s wrong.
I have yet to see a falsifiable scenario out of the warminista crowd.

Brian H
August 12, 2011 9:40 pm

Anthony;
Edit note: de-apostrophize your plurals. Apostrophes are for noun possessives, and abbreviations, ONLY. No plural’s. Correction: No plurals.

Brian H
August 12, 2011 9:46 pm

Koz;
The temperature increase reduces how much CO2 is held in the upper layers of the oceans, and this is the overwhelmingly dominant determination of how much is “left” in the atmosphere. Human emissions just improve the resulting increase. We then get to eat better, as the crop yields surge. Win-win!

August 12, 2011 10:06 pm

I think someone else touched on this subject but here goes. First Joe is a great weather man and is attempting ( some what poorly ) to put into nomenclature a discussion that has become mystified to most people. This means in many ways dumb down the actual science yet attempting to allow people to understand that the dumbed down version is still based on sound and important science. I did not like it, but again I do not believe I am his target audience and many of the thins he stated made me cringe a little as they are not more verifiable than some of the more outrageous claims of Climate Scientists that through in ‘gotcha words’ like ‘may be as high’ as between 5 and 10 degrees warmer in a hundred years. Which is legalese in the science community for, may not happen at all.
Now as for Matt, of course I am skeptical of anyones comments. Heck even my own as it is based on my current level of understanding which may be incorrect. That being said, I believe CO2 does not ‘add’ heat to the equation, rather it slows the rate of the heat withdrawal from the atmosphere. This is an important distinction to make however as it does not mean that there is more heat added to the atmosphere but rather a slower decay rate in which heat radiates from said atmosphere. Again ALL the predictions that ‘MAY’ come about are actually predicated on feedback loops occurring which may not happen at all.
One important thing that Joe did say that I do think is important is that we may well have temperature and CO2 backwards as far as which is driving which. It is just unfortunate that currently both CO2 and temperature are in lock step with one another and may well be for the foreseeable future.

Stephen Wilde
August 12, 2011 10:12 pm

As regards the mass balance issue there is a way that it could be wrong as follows:
Humans release 100 units leaving 20 units unabsorbed. 80 units go into stimulated local and regional sinks. It could be that all of it gets absorbed locally.
Oceans absorb less due to higher temperatures from increased solar insolation allowing 30 units more than ‘normal’ to remain in the atmosphere. Or 50 units more if all the human emissions are absorbed locally.
In each scenario atmospheric CO2 content therefore rises by 50 units which is half the human emissions.
All 50 units will be C12 according to Salby. Previously the consequent change in the 12C and 13C ratio was thought to be entirely anthropogenic.
Without the human contribution the local and regional sinks would be less active and the natural system would be a net source producing a solely natural rise of 30 units or 50 units as the case may be.
In the two examples given the observed increase is half the human contribution which is approximately what we see in the real world. The mass balance argument therefore fails because it is a dynamic system responding locally or regionally with increased vigour to the human input.
Interestingly one only needs a small change in ocean absorption rates to achieve the effect. Approximately 30% (or 50%) of the size of the human emissions which would probably be just a minute fraction of the total oceanic flux.
On these figures the human contribution could be easily cancelled out by a very slight increase in oceanic absorption rates so the present setup should be regarded as temporary.
Likewise a small further decrease in oceanic absorption rates would have a disproportionate effect on atmospheric CO2 without any additional contribution on our part.
It is likely just a coincidence that for a portion of the late 20th century the effect of the increased solar insolation to the oceans ran roughly parallel to the rate of increase in human emissions.
The increased solar insolation to the oceans having been caused by a more active sun changing the air circulation so as to draw the jetstreams poleward, reduce global cloudiness (as was observed) and allow more sunlight into the oceans.
The smoothness of the change at Mauna Loa could be a result of the most dominant process being a longer term change in solar activity levels such as from LIA to date. Being dominant that process would suppress shorter term temperature effects other than the high frequency seasonal variations.
This reminds me of the mistake that some make as regards economic theory. Some insist that there is only one ‘cake’ of resources of a fixed size (the mass balance idea) and everyone must share it equitably. In reality the size of the ‘cake’ increases with greater economic activity (more human input) so most if not all people get richer.
If Salby is right and human emissions are irrelevant then that is how it must be happening.
Also, if Salby is right then the ice cores and various other proxies must be misleading for reasons we have not yet pinned down.
I note that plant stomata show much more variability but even they may well be under recording.
I suspect that it is natural and routine for atmospheric CO2 levels to vary by up to 50% over periods of several centuries and somehow the ice cores are not recording it.
After all a very small change in oceanic absorption rates must have a disproportionately large effect on the atmosphere because of the hugely different CO2 carrying capabilities. I see no reason for doubting that the oceans could cause proportionately large CO2 variations in the air on a regular basis.
“The observed behavior is what it is.”
Murry Salby

David Falkner
August 12, 2011 10:20 pm

R. Gates says:
August 12, 2011 at 9:00 pm
Not likely Scarface. The rise in CO2 beyond what is typical for an interglacial period has not been due to warmer temps, but the release of billions of tons of CO2 from the burning of fossil fuels. This interglacial is different in 2 significant respects from past interglacials over the past 800,000 years:
1) CO2 levels are higher
2) A species has learned how to release billions of tons of CO2 from fossil fuels.

Well, since you are speaking about the interglacial cycles, wouldn’t you like to mention the steep drop we are due for soon? Please, explain that cycle with CO2. Thanks.

Stephen Wilde
August 12, 2011 10:22 pm

I’m saddened that Joe brought up those two scientific laws/principles.
They were not necessary and are irrelevant to the issue.
His contentions are correct without even mentioning them.
The system simply adjusts to the extra energy in the air to eliminate all or most of that extra energy with little or no measurable climate effect.
More CO2 slows down the flow of energy through the system a fraction but an adjustment to the water cycle speeds it up again for a zero or near zero net effect.

Jeremy
August 12, 2011 10:32 pm

Say what you will about Bastardi. He has a very valid question for the warmers.
Warmers, answer this question:
1) What would it take for you to question your currently accepted understanding (presumably given to you by experts) on Anthroprogenic Global Warming?
Skeptics have an easy time with this one. If the global average temperature were following the previously made projections, or any of the previous extreme storm predictions were in fact holding true (they’re not), or ocean temperature were in fact following the CAGW projections, etc..etc… if any of those were in fact directly following predictions, I would question what I believe to be the case here.
What would it take for you to question?

David Falkner
August 12, 2011 10:40 pm

I just love how Mr. Wilde’s comment flows into mine. 🙂
It is what it is indeed. Just because the weather was [X] last year, it will be [X] this year. That gives you X-X understanding of what the actual system you are observing does with the energy it is given. Why was the weather X last year? That gives you a vastly superior understanding of how Earth handles the energy it gets from the Sun.
As far as I know, and Mr. Bastardi is free to correct me on this, weather models predict temperature just fine without adding CO2 as a factor. I’d like to know how you guys get the temperature right everyday without slapping on that additional warming.

Rational Debate
August 12, 2011 10:42 pm

re: post by Joe Bastardi says: August 12, 2011 at 7:07 pm

Someone is right and someone is wrong. The coming years will show that, and its that simple. A bottom line.

Frankly, I’m not sure I’d even go quite that far. Of course I agree that clearly one side is right and the other wrong. I also agree that continued flat temps or cooling while CO2 continues to rise would put the nail in the warmista coffin, but I don’t think that a return to warming would prove AGW.
Why? Because it’s my understanding that there is some pretty solid research showing that the earth has gone thru multiple periods where the temperature has increased (or decreased) as much or more than the highest predicted IPCC values, and in shorter time periods. That being the case, it seems to me that even if we return to warming over the next decade or two, the null hypothesis would still hold – e.g., that temp increases on the order projected by AGW advocates are well within natural cycles, and natural cycles fits the existing data as well or better than the AGW hypothesis.
Until AGW advocates can come up with some way to prove that CO2 is far more likely to be the cause than natural cycles – or either the rate or magnitude of change becomes significantly greater than such changes in Earths’ history – the null hypothesis stands. So far I don’t see that they’ve come up with any way to get beyond correlation at the very best, and even that correlation is relatively meaningless because neither the rate nor magnitude of change is out of Earth’s historical norms.
We keep coming back to some of the most basic scientific principles; null hypothesis, correlation is not causation, falsification, level of uncertainty, empirical evidence, and so on.

gnomish
August 12, 2011 10:46 pm

Joe rocks!
it’s just hard for anybody to pin down an oiled weasel like a warmista.

August 12, 2011 10:48 pm

Rhoda Ramirez claims:
“Joe Bastardi presented a falsifiable scenario: If temps go up over the next decade then he’ll admit that he’s wrong.” Ramirez’s claim is logically flawed.
First, “scenario” is synonymous with “projection” but a “projection” is not falsifiable; it is a “prediction” that is falsifiable. Second, nowhere in this thread does Bastardi state the prediction that the global temperature will not go up over the next decade. He observes that the global temperature has not been going up but this observation does not match the description of a “prediction.” Third, in the evaluation of a theory, a single prediction is not helpful; one needs predictions of large number for establishment of the statistical significance of the conclusions.

Rational Debate
August 12, 2011 11:21 pm

re: post by Terry Oldberg says: August 12, 2011 at 9:19 pm

….. Actually, a model projection cannot fail for it does not state a falsifiable claim. It is a prediction and not a projection that states a falsifiable claim but as the IPCC climatologist Kevin Trenberth states explicitly at http://blogs.nature.com/climatefeedback/2007/07/global_warming_and_forecasts_o.html, the IPCC models make projections not predictions. IPCC climatology is a failed science but it is not failed because the temps have leveled while the CO2 has risen. Rather, it is failed because its models do not make falsifiable claims.

Couldn’t agree with you more on the falsifiability aspect. Don’t’cha just love how they keep claiming trillions of dollars must be spent and the entire world order and our standards of living all radically altered because they know to a 95% certainty that our CO2 release is killing the planet based on their model projections, but those projections aren’t predictions and therefore they cannot be held to account or be wrong should their ‘projections’ turn out to be incorrect?
Really serious case of cognitive dissonance or what? Hellooooo Orwell!!! Oh, and Alice, are you under that mushroom? Oh, you’re SMOKIN’ that mushroom.

Ralph
August 12, 2011 11:35 pm

Don’t you love the way in which televisions want to discuss climate issues, and allocate 45 seconds to it !!.
BTW What about CO2 absorption saturation? As I understand it, the capability of CO2 to absorb more longwave is already at maximum levels, with no further ability to absorb. If there is not further absorption, there can be no further warming.
.

Rhys Jaggar
August 12, 2011 11:49 pm

The question that needs to be asked of the warmists is what collateral they are prepared to put up against their assertions?
1. Money?
2. Their children?
3. Their career and reputation?
Just what is it that they will lay on the line when they make their claims?
It’s important to know…..

Rational Debate
August 12, 2011 11:51 pm

re: post by Terry Oldberg says: August 12, 2011 at 10:48 pm
Terry, I don’t for the life of me know where you are coming from in saying that Mr. Bastardi has made no falsifiable prediction that temps won’t go up over the next decade. At the end of his article he stated:

Time will provide the answer. … there should be a drop in global temperatures as measured by objective satellite measurement, at least back to the levels they were in the 1970s, when we first started measuring them via an objective source. If temperatures warm despite these natural cycles, you carry the day. We won’t have to wait the full 20-30 year period. I believe we will have our answer before this decade is done.

Seems pretty clear to me that he’s predicting world wide average temperatures will drop this decade, and if they increase instead, his position has been falsified. He even specifies the measurement method, e.g., by satellite, so we have a relatively objective method that isn’t as subject to problems and bias as surface measurements.

Ralph
August 12, 2011 11:54 pm

>>KevinK says: August 12, 2011 at 8:04 pm
>>Each time the energy is redirected it travels as IR radiation at the speed of
>>light. So yes the “Greenhouse Effect” does indeed slow the flow of energy
>>through the system, but due to the speeds involved it is only capable of delaying
>>the release of heat by something like a few milliseconds
Can you explain that again for me – I know for a fact that a low stratus layer of cloud can maintain the surface temperature up to 10o warmer, for the whole night.
..

Rhys Jaggar
August 12, 2011 11:56 pm

To the American audience who are all experiencing a huge heatwave this summer:
we over the pond in Britain are not. We had an incredibly early, mild spring which accelerated many of our crops, particularly our fruit and berries to almost record early harvest dates.
But our summer has been relatively cool and reasonably wet. Not cold, cold, but we’ve only had a few days over 75 degrees.
I can’t speak for the whole world but certainly in NW Europe we have no signs of a heatwave.

August 13, 2011 12:09 am

@ R.Gates
“But in all these 800,000 years or more, during interglacials, many of which were warmer than our current interglacial,………………………….It is not that this interglacial is warmer than the others”
R.Gates, I do enjoy your posts, but it seems to be illogical to find a direct correlation between Co2 and temperature, when you say that Co2 level in inter-glacials were never as high as they are now, but the temperature was warmer.
I know you are trying to say that warm interglacials did not drive an in crease in Co2 because while they were warmer, the Co2 level was lower, but conversely , if they were warmer, but the Co2 level was lower than now, does that not impact on the Co2 / Temperature correlation?
Or am I reading this wrongly?

John H
August 13, 2011 12:23 am

Fox news reports, particularly on climate, are where I go for substance. The Fox team possesses an indepth understanding of the facts, no doubt engendered by their tireless pursuit of the truth. I say strip five Climate scientists of their PHD’s and award them to Joe Bastardi.

John H
August 13, 2011 12:33 am

“Thats my agenda, get it right. And if I am right, then people will remember who fought for what was right, and who simply just swam with the tide because it seemed convenient and everyone else was doing it, and making a buck off it at that.”
If anyone is swimming with the tide, its you Joe. You are making big bucks pontificating on a subject you obviously know nothing about.

Gary Hladik
August 13, 2011 12:43 am

Robert in Calgary says (August 12, 2011 at 9:03 pm): “Where’s Matt and his equation? Can’t find any envelopes on a Friday night…..?”
Back in July Steve Mosher referenced this “back-of-the-envelope” discussion:
http://rankexploits.com/musings/2011/a-simple-analysis-of-equilibrium-climate-sensitivity/
It also discusses some of the simplifications and assumptions that go into the calculation, e.g. no feedbacks, positive or negative. The devil is in the (omitted) details, of course.

Richard111
August 13, 2011 12:49 am

A simple observation. My location has been overcast for several days. The night time temperatures have been a steady 13-14C. Last time we had a clear night temperature dropped to 9C even though day temperature had hit 21C.
Many tons of water overhead in fine droplets (clouds) can absorb and emitt over the range 4 to 100 microns and can only arrive at thermal equilibrium with surface temperature. CO2 can only see the 15 micron band at night. CO2 alone under clear skies at night will not keep anything warm. The miniscule “backradiation” from CO2 at about 0.7% of total surface radiation simply means surface radiation efficiency has dropped to 99.3%. Any drop in radiation rate is not a warming effect. To make something warmer you must feed in extra heat.

Richard S Courtney
August 13, 2011 12:55 am

Friends:
Chris Colose wrote at August 12, 2011 at 5:35 pm saying:
“…
All of Bastardi’s talking points here can be traced back a long time,

I challenged him to an open debate on the matter.

I would like to how well he can perform when required to scientifically address criticisms of his claims.”
OH YES! Please, please please let it happen.
It is way past time that the egregious Colose got his bottom smacked in public and this could be it.
Richard

Ralph
August 13, 2011 1:06 am

>>Rhys Jaggar says: August 12, 2011 at 11:56 pm
>>To the American audience who are all experiencing a huge heatwave this summer:
>>We over the pond in Britain are not.
Ditto in N Germany. It has been week after week of low cloud, drizzle, aggressive summer anti-cyclones and cold winds of the N Sea.
Its been dreadful.
.

John Peter
August 13, 2011 1:13 am

“R. Gates says:
August 12, 2011 at 8:50 pm
The answer is obvious. They have it backwards. It is the earth’s temperature (largely the ocean) which is driving the CO2 release into the atmosphere. That is what the ice cores tell us and recently that Salby showed using isotopes in an important peer review paper.
_____
C’mon Joe, you can’t honestly believe this, or perhaps I am misunderstanding what you are saying. Are you suggesting that the last several century rise in CO2 is not due to the result of human burning of fossil fuels? I mean, it’s one thing to suggest that the Earth’s global temperature may not be as sensitive to the rise in CO2 as some would suggest, and I might even agree with that, but it is another thing entirely to suggest that human activity has not been the root cause of the rise in CO2 from 280 ppm to our current 390+ ppm.”
I doubt if any sane person would question the position that mankind have released (and are releasing) CO2 into the atmosphere to add to that released by oceans and other natural sources. The issue R Gates does not address (and others too) is where do you stand on the central issue raised by Mr Bastardi? Do you believe temperatures will go up, stand still or reduce beteween today and year 2020? And if they stand still or go down, do you agree that the AGW theory (and CAGW alarmism) has been falsified? I would like to hear a direct answer from R Gates and others questioning Mr Bastardi’s reasoning. That is the key question.
At least R Gates is now prepared to admit that CAGW represents alarmism and any impact of CO2 may be more in line with what Dr Spencer and Professor Lindzen propose.

Richard S Courtney
August 13, 2011 1:16 am

R. Gates:
At August 12, 2011 at 8:50 pm you sayto Joes Bastardi;
“Are you suggesting that the last several century rise in CO2 is not due to the result of human burning of fossil fuels? I mean, it’s one thing to suggest that the Earth’s global temperature may not be as sensitive to the rise in CO2 as some would suggest, and I might even agree with that, but it is another thing entirely to suggest that human activity has not been the root cause of the rise in CO2 from 280 ppm to our current 390+ ppm.”
This, of course, ignores the fact that the bulk of evidence indicates that “human activity has NOT been the root cause of the rise in CO2 from 280 ppm to our current 390+ ppm.”
Take your fingers out of your ears, stop shouting, “Lah, lah. lah” and read the recent thread on WUWT at
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/08/05/the-emily-litella-moment-for-climate-science-and-co2/
The discussion still continues on that thread, and it is probably above your reading comprehension capability. However, those on that thread who argue that “human activity” is known to have cause the recent rise in atmospheric CO2 have been soundly trounced.
Richard

Jack
August 13, 2011 2:02 am

The difference between theory and practice is that in theory they are the same, but in practice they are different. 🙂
Joe B deals with practice. Matt/AlGore/Warmistas deal with theory. Their problem is that Joe B gets paid big bucks to ACCURATELY forecast weather. I go with Joe.

Punch
August 13, 2011 2:13 am

Hello Joe!
We have an interesting month ahead when your arctic sea ice extent minimum prediction will be tested for 2011. As far as I recall, it was a minimum of 5,5million on the jaxa data?
Seems to me agw skeptics will have to admit they don’t have or understand all the facts if you are wrong on this issue ;). Of course the current value being ~5,84million, you are on track for a resounding success of logic against warmista modelistas.

August 13, 2011 2:29 am

If Co2 is rising because of increasing temperatures, and if temperatures are leveling off, why is CO2 still rising?

August 13, 2011 2:32 am

It seems that the arguments by Bastardi and Salby are not coherent. One cannot accept both.

stephen richards
August 13, 2011 2:47 am

The lack of knowledge of fundamental physics seems to be all pervading among the clmimo gang. Can I suggest that Colose, Matt, jeremy etc buy themselves a really good text book on physics, starting with e=mc² and ending with the latest quantum models. When done, please come back and explain how co² retains radiative energy.
Clue: all excited atoms try to return to the ground state immediately. Immediately means µsecs.
Stephen Richards BSc MSc solid state physics

richard verney
August 13, 2011 2:49 am

Doug Proctor says:
August 12, 2011 at 6:01 pm
////////////////////////////////////////////////
Doug well said. I do not know why these ‘scientists’ seem to lack a grasp on accuracy and precision and the significance of that simple point.
As regards the missing knife, it is worse than we thought!!! Not only do we not know whether the knife has gone missing, we not know whether there has been a murder still less (if there was one) how it was committed, ie., whether with a knofe or with some other weapon.

stephen richards
August 13, 2011 2:52 am

Stephen Wilde says:
August 12, 2011 at 10:22 pm
I’m saddened that Joe brought up those two scientific laws/principles.
They were not necessary and are irrelevant to the issue.
I happen to agree with Stephen. Joe B does not need to use these ,theories in order to prove his point. He has been forecasting seasons within reasonable accuracy for many years and doing so way beyond the abilities of either UKMet or NASA.
The co² gangs rely on the same old rubbish to promote their religion and, sadly for them, it’s just going nowhere. They have failed in evry prediction since 1988. Oh, except when they fiddle the data.

stephen richards
August 13, 2011 2:56 am

Ralph says:
August 12, 2011 at 11:54 pm
The so called blanket effect of cloud prevents convection and reduces evaporations. It does nothing to impede IR EXCEPT that H²O is a great absorper of IR in the same bands as co² and there is about 1000 times more H²O than CO². 5% to 0.04%.

Venter
August 13, 2011 3:04 am

John H, you might want to do your homework before posting. Joe Bastardi runs a successful weather predicting business and earns his money from that, by being correct in his predictions. His clients come back to him and pay him for his services because he is correct.
The pro-AGW scientific crowd are the ones who are pontificating about a subject they have shown to know nothing about and have been proven wrong in everything they predicted. Empirical measured evidence shows that their prediction success rate on anything related to climate is non-existent. And yet they are ones skimming millions of taxpayer funds for their ” research ” and billions are being spent by Governments worldwide based on their failed and rotten predictions.

Roger Longstaff
August 13, 2011 3:12 am

Theo Goodwin says: August 12, 2011 at 6:41 pm: “By the way, ‘skeptical’ is the Brit spelling while ‘sceptical’ is the American spelling.”
Wrong way round, old chap.

John B
August 13, 2011 3:23 am

Joe Bastardi says:
August 12, 2011 at 6:48 pm

Co2 is rising. If the earths temperature cools the next 20 to 30 years, then its not co2.
———————–
Joe makes a prediction here, and it is one that most “warmists” would agree with. My question is, if the earth’s temperature warms over that same period, will Joe and other skeptics admit they might be wrong?

Haralds Rjabovs
August 13, 2011 3:23 am

1.Matt, in general I agree with You. It seams You have same physics background.
2. Some simple screed:
Greanhouse gase absorbs Long wawe radiation end emits it to random directions. Part (about 1/2) of this radiation go back to earth.
The earth could be assumed as black body and its released energy intensity P ~T^4
What will happen if earth Temperature will change 1 degree celsius ?
One degree of temperature changes will cause 100*[(T+1) /T]^4 percents of emited energy intensity . Assuming that average earth temperature T=(273+15) = 288 K we get that 100*(289/288)^4=1.4%.of earth emitted energy returns back.
In other words, if 1.4% of earth emited energy are returnded/reflected back then to reach termodynamic equilibrium earth shout warm 1 degree celsius.
The question is: How mach greenhouse gas is necessary to reflect 1.4% of earth emitted Long wave radiation.
There are little to to do with greenhouse gas CONCENTRATION. The key factor is amount of greenhause gase per earth surface unit (assuming that atmosphere is thin) .
Significant is which part of earth emitted radiation spectrum greenhause gase are able to absorb and how mach energy is in this part of spectrum. So the impact of CO2 to earth T are limited to this energy portion. I am to lazy and busy for quantitave calculations of spectrums and ability of CO2 to absorb/reemit energy.
In my opinium, the greenhause gase effects are real. BUT the impact of CO2 to earth climate could be overestimated, due to lots of complex feedbacks (cloudines, albedo, global circulations (athospheric and ocean) etc).
Till now I have not seen scientificaly argumented research which shows that CO2 are cause of some worming. I have seen lots of speculations but not more. My be some one has better luck. If yes pleese give me some links.
Very possible there are mach more powerful earth climate drivers then CO2 and effect of CO2 could be neglected.

Spector
August 13, 2011 3:27 am

People often characterize carbon dioxide as a blanket and use the analogy of the warming produced by a blanket as an analogy for the CO2 greenhouse effect. But because CO2 is largely transparent except over a limited band of wavelengths, I propose the scarf as a better analogy. With nothing else on, people might feel cold no matter how many scarves they tried to wrap around their necks.

Kelvin Vaughan
August 13, 2011 3:49 am

Matt says:
August 12, 2011 at 5:28 pm
The equivalent of what you are saying is that I can insulate my home with a 1″ square ceiling tile or does coarbon dioxide have some majic effect?

commieBob
August 13, 2011 4:07 am

Gary Hladik says:
August 13, 2011 at 12:43 am
Back in July Steve Mosher referenced this “back-of-the-envelope” discussion:

What Matt said was:

Your claim that the increase in CO2 is too small to affect such a change is easily contradicted by a simple back-of-the-envolope calculation that shows the warming from CO2 double to be about 2 deg. F.

The link Steve Mosher pointed to does not deal with what Matt was talking about. What we’re waiting for is a simple calculation that relates the concentration of CO2 to a change in temperature.

Joe Bastardi
August 13, 2011 4:20 am

As far as the arctic ice, it looks like it will get to 4.75 5 million which means that forecast was not on target. As you can see I admit it. . But how do you hammer me on being wrong there, and give people who say it would be gone by now a pass ( from 10 years ago). And now they are admitting, because they see the increase in thick ice, that perhaps there is no tipping point. We are in no danger of losing the ice cap, and it will return to where it was as the pdo and amo, and especially the amo, cool in the coming years
But again, on the red herring that I am trying to show co2 is in this debate. IN THE REAL WORLD
We add co2 to real life greenhouses not to keep them warmer, but to feed the plants. My point is its not contributing to any trapping, because there is no extra trapping occurring except for the natural affects that have ruled this planet since the start of time, that you, me or Al Gore can not do anything about, partly because we did not create the whole thing ( I am speaking for you and I, I dont know if Gore believes that he cant influence it since he does seem to think he can be involved in its control) Its addition to the system is nothing, or cant be calculated its so small. Years ago, in the giddy days of the inception of the
Carbon trading exchange, people getting involved thought they were going to get rich by essentially “trading air” ( They should probably have gone after water vapor, a more prominent gas and one that can actually be linked)
But we can measure temps all we want, and argue all we want, its a red herring until we can actually quantify the energy of entire ocean/atmosphere system and what it “should” be.
.None of these people have told me what the perfect climate or co2 level is anyway. They never explain why 350 ppm is ideal, or what their proposed effect, if we get there, is going to do to the climate. And if its true its causing warming, then the resultant cooling, would cause problems also. That is why this is such a strange argument. There is not forecasted ideal answer, nor will they give you one. In addition to asking what would it take for you to see you are wrong in the longer term, please I beg of you tell me what the perfect climate balance looks like and tell me the global results of such a thing. But we never see or hear any of that.
In the end, I am confident rational people will see and understand co2’s influence on the climate is virtually nothing. As any greenhouse owner would tell you, the the prime reason they pump co2 into their greenhouse is for it to do what it does best.. help plants grow because it is plant food. And its increase will help “green” the planet..providing it doesnt turn so cold that we have another mini ice age on our hands like the last time the sun went into the tank.( while I think we are returning to the 1970s over the next 20-30 years, and that is my forecast to be tested, there are those that do think we will be much colder)
The most telling example of co2 and plants/temps is the fact that co2 levels jump each winter when its cold, because the foliage in the northern hemisphere , where there are more plants, decreases, but falls off in summer when its hotter but more plants are growing. It is reactive to the environment it is in, not proactive and forcing the action. And that is the crux of this argument as to its affect on the total energy budget of the earth.. which has never been quantified in an accurate, agreed upon way anyway.
So the challenge is.. let us all know what the total energy is in the total system, propose a climate optimum for that, then actually see if co2 has anything to do with it. The idea we are working on 3 without having 1 or 2 done first should instantly raise eyebrows in the debate
ciao, cumpares

August 13, 2011 4:24 am

Joe Bastardi says:
August 12, 2011 at 6:48 pm
“Yet I dont get a nickel for sticking my neck out on this issue ( contrary to the nonsense that is printed about guys like me being in the pocket of this group or that), except fighting for what I believe is the right answer. Thats my agenda, get it right. And if I am right, then people will remember who fought for what was right, and who simply just swam with the tide because it seemed convenient and everyone else was doing it, and making a buck off it at that. Its That simple. Its just a big weather forecast to me, and I am sorry if that insults the intelligence of those who want it to be something that is so complex, so tough, that no one else need apply but those intelligent enough to understand that they know better than everyone else, and because of that are entitled to force everyone else to their position.”
I love that statement. It reminds me on the statement given ~900 years ago Omar Khayyam has written in one of his books:
“I always desired to investigate the various classes of Algebraic equations and discriminate, by means of proofs classes which admit a solution and which do not, because I found that such equations occur in solving some difficult problems. But, on account of adverse circumstances, I could not pursue the subject. We are in the danger that learned men
would all perish. The few that remain have to undergo great hardships. Owing to the negligence of Hikmat (Science) in these times, the really learned men cannot find the opportunity and means for investigation. On the other hand the pseudo-Hakims of these days would represent the truth as false. They do not rise above deprecating others and self-show. They do not use what little they know except for the Requirements of a wretched carcass. On finding a person who devotes his whole life to the acquisition of truth and repudiation of falsehood and hypocrisy, a person who shuns selfishness and cunning, these pseudo-Hakims will only jeer and threaten him.
Omar Khayyam (page 76)
Obeisance.
V.

Venter
August 13, 2011 4:31 am

John B, if you see tne 3rd line of 2nd paragraph of Joe’s comment in the comments section, you’ll see he states ” I will admit I am wrong if it rises,” . That should answer your question.

C3 Editor
August 13, 2011 5:22 am

Joe got the HadCRUT/CO2 chart from here: http://www.c3headlines.com/ ….if you just want to scroll thru the ‘C3’ headlines instead, go here: http://www.c3headlines.com/c3-just-the-headlines.html
Joe (Anthony?) used our May chart, here is the updated June chart: http://www.c3headlines.com/2011/08/hadcrut-global-temperatures-june-2011-15-year-span-of-immaterial-insignificant-non-accelerating-warm.html
Finally, one can view our entire collection of charts via this link: http://www.c3headlines.com/chartsimages.html
C3 editor

Blade
August 13, 2011 5:28 am

Nice essay Joe, thanks for being here. I want to highlight this paragraph of yours:

In a debate, someone argued just because it is small doesn’t mean it is not important. After all even a drop with 0.042 gm of arsenic could kill an adult. Yes but put the same drop in the ocean or a reservoir and no one dies or gets ill.

Your words demolish their sneaky and deliberate attempt to associate CO2 with cyanide, arsenic and other poisons du jour. If I may make it even clearer, when the AGW cultist says: ‘even a few ppm of cyanide can kill you’ (and they do say this), they are relatively describing cramming the millions of ton of atmospheric CO2 into the lungs of a single person, not the ultra diluted scenario you mention. Meanwhile, that same AGW cultist routinely experiences 200% or 400% or more CO2 when they drive in their closed window car or any other number of scenarios on a daily basis.

Joe Bastardi [August 12, 2011 at 6:48 pm] says:
“In the end there is a simple test. Why cant all you folks that get your kicks out of chipping away at arguments to hide this reality see that. Temps are supposed to be rising, they are not! Co2 is rising. If the earths temperature cools the next 20 to 30 years, then its not co2. As it is what is so darn hard about using observational data that shows that the co2 is going up, the temps have leveled off ,and the resulting hypothesis that it is not co2!”

If this were a pure scientific dispute you would be correct Joe, however this is not pure science. There is no Null Hypothesis for a religious death cult, they won’t describe one, nor will they accept one. I have said that even if there were a clear repeat of the 1960’s-1970’s with clear cooling and epic winters they will not even acknowledge it. Sure, a small fraction of ‘lukewarmers’ will come to their senses, but the cult will just go underground until the next warming cycle 30 years or so past that and torture our grandchildren instead. We climate realists must come to grips with this. They are re-constituted luddites and no doubt preceded them as well and have likely been present since a caveman brought fire home for the first time.

KevinK [August 12, 2011 at 8:04 pm] says:
“… the “GHGs” do indeed redirect a VERY SMALL portion of the IR energy attempting to leave the Earth so that it takes another trip (or maybe ten more trips) though the atmosphere. Each time the energy is redirected something more than 50% is lost to space (fixed by the geometry of a sphere). So after as few as 10 “re-directions” the energy becomes much less than 1% of the departing energy. Does the term “diminishing returns” strike a bell here at all?
Each time the energy is redirected it travels as IR radiation at the speed of light (quite speedy last time I checked). So yes the “Greenhouse Effect” does indeed slow the flow of energy through the system, but due to the speeds involved it is only capable of delaying the release of heat by something like a few milliseconds to maybe a few hundred milliseconds. For a “higher equilibrium” temperature to result the delay must be greater than the period of the arriving energy (i.e. once every 24 hours (at the equator))…”

Thank you for this explanation. You have put into words what I (and probably many others) have instinctively thought all along. This comment and one by Stephen Wilde below has really put into focus the ‘CO2 magic gas principle’ for lack of a better term.
Regarding the saturation effect, it occurs to me that some very carefully designed experiments with enclosed systems using a heat source, regulated CO2 input and thermal sensors would be valuable. How hard could it be to keep adding CO2 until the effect saturates? Likewise the duration should be demonstrable by switching the heat source off. If such experiments have already been done they certainly have not received enough attention.
I would like to know one simple thing: given two identical Earths excepting that Earth-1 is at our level of CO2 while Earth-2 has no CO2, and then we switched off the sun. What would be the cooling lag before they were temperature identical, presumably at or near absolute zero? Would Earth-1 lag by one day or month or year or what?

R. Gates [August 12, 2011 at 9:00 pm] says:
“This interglacial is different in 2 significant respects from past interglacials over the past 800,000 years:
1) CO2 levels are higher
2) A species has learned how to release billions of tons of CO2 from fossil fuels.”

Gates, just for once please complete your thought. Specifically, answer this simple question:
If humans had gone extinct 20 kya (or anytime really), what would be the CO2 ppm today?

DEEBEE
August 13, 2011 5:30 am

Okay, how much? We have a gas that is .04% of the atmosphere that increases 1.5 ppm yearly and humans contribute 3-5% of that total yearly, which means the increase by humans is 1 part per 20 million
=========
Not necesssarily contribution do not have to be proportional to the size in the cycle flow . Would have been nice to get this hole in the argument.

RobB
August 13, 2011 5:30 am

Lazyteenager:
“The Salby paper fails because it predicts that ocean CO2 is going down when in fact it’s is going up.”
Interesting comment, said with much conviction behind it. Sadly though I doubt you have read what Salby has to say in his paper as it has not yet been published. There again, you might be psychic.

August 13, 2011 5:37 am

Joe Bastardi says
But again, on the red herring that I am trying to show co2 is in this debate. IN THE REAL WORLD
We add co2 to real life greenhouses not to keep them warmer, but to feed the plants. My point is its not contributing to any trapping, because there is no extra trapping occurring except for the natural affects that have ruled this planet since the start of time, that you, me or Al Gore can not do anything about, partly because we did not create the whole thing..
Henry@Joe
perhaps I can help a little bit by making you understand how CO2 both cools and warms the planet
– by an as yet unknown but, indeed, probably a very small amount –
at least try to understand the basic principle, it may help you shed some more light on this subject…
http://www.letterdash.com/HenryP/the-greenhouse-effect-and-the-principle-of-re-radiation-11-Aug-2011

Richard S Courtney
August 13, 2011 5:42 am

Deech56:
Your posts at August 13, 2011 at 2:29 am and August 13, 2011 at 2:32 am say, respectively:
“If Co2 is rising because of increasing temperatures, and if temperatures are leveling off, why is CO2 still rising?”
And
“It seems that the arguments by Bastardi and Salby are not coherent. One cannot accept both.”
They are completely coherent. Read the still-continuing discussion in the thread on WUWT at
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/08/05/the-emily-litella-moment-for-climate-science-and-co2/
You are assuming the two effects are coincident. But the long-term change in atmospheric CO2 follows the long-term temperature rise by ~30 years: this is indicated both by analyses of the trends and observations of the data.
Richard

R. Gates
August 13, 2011 5:59 am

.
John Peter says:
August 13, 2011 at 1:13 am
“R. Gates says:
August 12, 2011 at 8:50 pm
The answer is obvious. They have it backwards. It is the earth’s temperature (largely the ocean) which is driving the CO2 release into the atmosphere. That is what the ice cores tell us and recently that Salby showed using isotopes in an important peer review paper.
_____
C’mon Joe, you can’t honestly believe this, or perhaps I am misunderstanding what you are saying. Are you suggesting that the last several century rise in CO2 is not due to the result of human burning of fossil fuels? I mean, it’s one thing to suggest that the Earth’s global temperature may not be as sensitive to the rise in CO2 as some would suggest, and I might even agree with that, but it is another thing entirely to suggest that human activity has not been the root cause of the rise in CO2 from 280 ppm to our current 390+ ppm.”
I doubt if any sane person would question the position that mankind have released (and are releasing) CO2 into the atmosphere to add to that released by oceans and other natural sources. The issue R Gates does not address (and others too) is where do you stand on the central issue raised by Mr Bastardi? Do you believe temperatures will go up, stand still or reduce beteween today and year 2020? And if they stand still or go down, do you agree that the AGW theory (and CAGW alarmism) has been falsified? I would like to hear a direct answer from R Gates and others questioning Mr Bastardi’s reasoning. That is the key question.
At least R Gates is now prepared to admit that CAGW represents alarmism and any impact of CO2 may be more in line with what Dr Spencer and Professor Lindzen propose.
————-
As there are multiple, and sometimes opposite forcings that can affect climate over any given time frame, I think if one wants to understand what has happened, and what may happen, one needs to look at the sum total of forcings and their related positive and negative feedbacks to see what may be expected. Some forcings act very slowly but very powerfully, such as Milankovitch, and others act very rapidly and very strongly, such as volcanoes. So it is somewhat dangerous and unscientific to simply say “if warming or cooling does not take place over such and such a period, then x must be true or false” unless you very carefully spell out the overall conditions of the test period looking at the sum total of forcings. Yet it seems many are not willing to accept the obvious need to look at the sum total of forcings and their related feedbacks, and evev more so, we still don’t know what the sum total of forcings and their feedbacks are, and that is exactly what climate science is about.
But not to dodge the question, but with the above as a point of reference, CO2 works with other GH gases to keep the planet warmer than it would be without these gases. Human activity has put more CO2 into the atmosphere then we would expect to see during this point of a Milankovitch driven interglacial. As CO2 increases, we would expect temperatures to increase as well, either directly or from positive feedbacks. Additionally, there is the hysteresis already in the system from the additional CO2 added over the past several centuries. So, simply considering CO2, we would expect the temperatures to be higher, when averaged over the decade in the next few decades ahead, and indeed, in the century ahead. But as my point of the first part of this post made, we need to look back at the decade and see what other forciings were also present that may have countered the warming from CO2, or perhaps even added to it. Some of these other forcings that can act on decadal time scales or shorter include solar effects, volcanoes, and other human effects such as aerosol and black carbon emissions.

R. Gates
August 13, 2011 6:06 am

RobB says:
August 13, 2011 at 5:30 am
Lazyteenager:
“The Salby paper fails because it predicts that ocean CO2 is going down when in fact it’s is going up.”
Interesting comment, said with much conviction behind it. Sadly though I doubt you have read what Salby has to say in his paper as it has not yet been published. There again, you might be psychic.
——–
When the Salby paper comes out, and assuming it has gone through some level of peer review, I’m sure we’ll have much to talk about, but I don’t think it will be quite so exciting to skeptics as the hype of it is now.

Bill Illis
August 13, 2011 6:07 am

Climate science is based a few “back-of-the-envelope” calculations.
And those only get one to about half-way through to the final product. Then it moves into assumptions based on personal belief systems. Most of these assumptions were made when the theory was initially being developed (in the late 1970s and early 1980s) when measurements were not available. They are still being used today and noone is allowed to question them apparently.
We need real measurements untainted by the need to prove that the intial personal beliefs were correct.
Humans have a great need to be proven correct and to have others agree with us. We have a hard time admitting when we are wrong. We will also use peer pressure and coercion to get people to agree with us if the opportunity is presented to us.
Climate science has gotten past these basic human instincts yet and into the “science based on measurement” stage that a mature science field uses (geology or medicine for example).
The climate models are still trying to show/prove that the initial 1978 assumptions were correct:
– CO2 increases the energy held in the system by 4 watts/m2 per doubling,
– O2 and N2 (99% of the amtosphere) play no role whatsoever in how the greenhouse effect works,
– water vapour will increase by 7% per 1.0C increase caused by CO2,
– temperatures will increase by 0.75C/W/m2 rather than being governed by the real physics,
– the lapse rate stays reasonably constant,
– clouds are a positive feedback,
– a warmer Earth atmosphere will not automatically release more IR to space as it gets warmer,
– Earth Albedo hardly varies at all through time, even in the ice ages,
– natural climate change is too small to worry about,
Real measurements in the real Earth system will show every one of these assumptions is wrong/is some other value.

R. Gates
August 13, 2011 6:16 am

Gareth Phillips says:
August 13, 2011 at 12:09 am
@ R.Gates
“But in all these 800,000 years or more, during interglacials, many of which were warmer than our current interglacial,………………………….It is not that this interglacial is warmer than the others”
R.Gates, I do enjoy your posts, but it seems to be illogical to find a direct correlation between Co2 and temperature, when you say that Co2 level in inter-glacials were never as high as they are now, but the temperature was warmer.
I know you are trying to say that warm interglacials did not drive an in crease in Co2 because while they were warmer, the Co2 level was lower, but conversely , if they were warmer, but the Co2 level was lower than now, does that not impact on the Co2 / Temperature correlation?
Or am I reading this wrongly?
———
A bit incorrectly. We’ve had SLIGHTLY warmer interglacials in the past 800,000 years, during which time CO2 hasn’t gone above 300 ppm, yet, if temps are the driver behind our modern level approaching 400 ppm, then something is amiss. That’s because humans have added the extra CO2 beyond the 280 ppm that we would expect from the interglacial alone.

R. Gates
August 13, 2011 6:24 am

David Falkner says:
August 12, 2011 at 10:20 pm
R. Gates says:
August 12, 2011 at 9:00 pm
Not likely Scarface. The rise in CO2 beyond what is typical for an interglacial period has not been due to warmer temps, but the release of billions of tons of CO2 from the burning of fossil fuels. This interglacial is different in 2 significant respects from past interglacials over the past 800,000 years:
1) CO2 levels are higher
2) A species has learned how to release billions of tons of CO2 from fossil fuels.
Well, since you are speaking about the interglacial cycles, wouldn’t you like to mention the steep drop we are due for soon? Please, explain that cycle with CO2. Thanks.
——–
Steep drop soon? According to whom? I would suggest you ask for an explanation from those predicting this. Out of the multiple forcings affecting climate, to suggest a “steep drop soon” would mean they are expecting some serious volcanic activity or perhaps all out nuclear war.

Slioch
August 13, 2011 6:29 am

Perhaps it is a measure of the gulf that now exists between 1. people who believe Joe Bastardi’s nonsense and 2. those who understand the science and read his words with incredulity that anyone could write such gibberish, that there has been only one reference (that by Chris Colose) to the discussions of it over on Tamino’s blog.
So, here are the links to those discussions:
http://tamino.wordpress.com/2011/08/10/settled-science/#comment-53256
http://tamino.wordpress.com/2011/08/12/can-bastardi-learn/
http://tamino.wordpress.com/2011/08/12/learning-from-bastardis-mistakes/

R. Gates
August 13, 2011 6:40 am

Blade said:
Gates, just for once please complete your thought. Specifically, answer this simple question:
If humans had gone extinct 20 kya (or anytime really), what would be the CO2 ppm today?
———-
If humans had been wiped out by the massive volcanic eruption of Toba 72,000 years ago, and weren’t around to burn fossil fuels over the past few centuries, then absolutely beyond a doubt CO2 levels would be lower today.

Mark
August 13, 2011 6:41 am

>>Ralph says:
August 13, 2011 at 1:06 am
>>Rhys Jaggar says: August 12, 2011 at 11:56 pm
>>To the American audience who are all experiencing a huge heatwave this summer:
>>We over the pond in Britain are not.
>>Ditto in N Germany. It has been week after week of low cloud, drizzle, aggressive summer anti-cyclones and cold winds of the N Sea.
>>Its been dreadful.
Maybe its just weather, but….
Similarly to the gentlemen fom the UK and Germany above, we here in Hungary are experiencing an unusually cool summer (except for an approx 10-days long heat wave a few weeks ago). Applies to June, July and August, as well. Not sure, but it looks similar to me to my childhood summers, during the 80’s. Entirely different from what we saw since the end of the 90’s.

Nigel Harris
August 13, 2011 6:42 am

The two lines drawn on the HadCRUT temperature chart (15 years to May 2011) are:
(a) a straw man – there is no straight line with that slope and intercept that can be derived from the HadCRUT temperature data.
(b) wishful thinking – the curved line drawn “through” the data is just arm waving.
The reality of the situation can be seen in this chart:
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:1900/to:2011.35/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:1900/to:2011.35/trend/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:1996.35/to:2011.35/trend
As you say, time will tell who is right. The latest data, for June and July 2011, are entirely consistent with continued warming, not cooling.

C Colenaty
August 13, 2011 6:43 am

I have noticed that most comments about the annual increase of CO2 sutggest that about half of this amount is due to human activity. Where does the other half come from?

netdr
August 13, 2011 7:02 am

Matt says:
Your claim that the increase in CO2 is too small to affect such a change is easily contradicted by a simple back-of-the-envolope [SIC] calculation that shows the warming from CO2 double to be about 2 deg.
*********
The British Royal Society calculates .4 ° C for a doubling of CO2 without feedbacks and Dr Hansen gets about 1 ° C now you get 2 ° C ??
If it is so simple why do different groups get answers that vary by 500 % ?
BTW: I am a skeptic but CO2 acts like putting a lid on a pot of water on a hot stove. If the water wasn’t boiling putting a lid on the pan causes the water to get hotter.
Another analogy is putting on another blanket when in bed. No heat is created is it?
Too bad this was the lead claim because it is obviously wrong and scientifically minded skeptics don’t buy it.

John B
August 13, 2011 7:05 am

Venter says:
August 13, 2011 at 4:31 am
John B, if you see tne 3rd line of 2nd paragraph of Joe’s comment in the comments section, you’ll see he states ” I will admit I am wrong if it rises,” . That should answer your question.
—————–
Thanks Venter. And does the same go for the rest of us here?

Latitude
August 13, 2011 7:07 am

I predict it doesn’t matter what the temps do in the next 15-20 years….not one bit
Almost every week there’s new research coming out that CO2 has less of an effect, the oceans are not acid, clouds, temps are going down……
…in 15 -20 years we might actually have something that vaguely resembles science

John B
August 13, 2011 7:15 am

Blade says:
August 13, 2011 at 5:28 am

Gates, just for once please complete your thought. Specifically, answer this simple question:
If humans had gone extinct 20 kya (or anytime really), what would be the CO2 ppm today?
————–
Hope R Gates doesn’t mind me answering on his behalf. As CO2 levels have been in the range 180 – 300 ppm for the last 800,000 years according to the ice core record, there is no reason to suppose that they would be anywhere outside that range had humanity gone extinct anytime before industrialisation.

BillD
August 13, 2011 7:18 am

I am surprized that Tony would print a “guest” presentation with so many obviously mistaken beliefs and factual mistakes in such little space. Seems to show that Joe B can read but not understand the basics of high school or even middle school science. I am surprized at how many readers were apparently “hoodwinked” by this posting. Is Joe B spoofing or is he really serious?

R. Gates
August 13, 2011 7:23 am

Without human activity during the Holocene, CO2 levels would be 280 ppm or lower today.

Theo Goodwin
August 13, 2011 7:23 am

Ralph says:
August 13, 2011 at 1:06 am
>>Rhys Jaggar says: August 12, 2011 at 11:56 pm
>>To the American audience who are all experiencing a huge heatwave this summer:
>>We over the pond in Britain are not.
“Ditto in N Germany. It has been week after week of low cloud, drizzle, aggressive summer anti-cyclones and cold winds of the N Sea. Its been dreadful.”
The upper and middle midwest in the USA are so cool that Warmista would describe it as “unprecedented.” My old hometown of St. Louis Missouri is looking at a week of high temperatures in the low to mid eighties. The last time that happened was just before the disastrous winters of 1976-1979. In normal conditions, August in St. Louis is no cooler than July, which can hit 100 daily. Today is only August 13, for goodness sake! Yes, Texas is suffering a very hot summer, but not an “unprecedented” summer. There are drought conditions in some parts of Texas that are not normal by any means.
Does the MSM cover this cooling? No, no, and no. I wonder if they will wake up when all the interstates through St. Louis are closed for days this winter?

richard verney
August 13, 2011 7:24 am

Deech56 says:
August 13, 2011 at 2:29 am
If Co2 is rising because of increasing temperatures, and if temperatures are leveling off, why is CO2 still rising?
//////////////////////////////////////////////
The evidence from, the ice cores suggests that there is a lag of between 600 to 1000 years between rising temperature and later observed rising CO2 levels. If that evidence is sound and the driving process still applicable today, the CO2 levels presently being observed may be reflecting rising temperatures prevalent in the MWP, ie the CO2 levels are not a response to current warming or cooling trend.
Whilst considering this point, it is also important to bear in mind that the CO2 levels observed at Mauna Loa bear no significant correlation with manmade emissions. The only correlation is that there is an upward trend in both observation and manmade emissions. However, apart from that course correlation, the Mauna Loa observations do not correlate with the rate of change in manmade emissions (Mauna Loa observations suggest an essentially linear increase, whereas manmade emissions have been anything but linear) and significantly, on the few occassions when manmade emissions have slowed (due to economic problems etc), the Mauna Loa records to not show that slowing. It would appear that Mauna Loa is not measuring the true effects of manmade emissions. This may be because manmade emissions are only about 2-3% of the total CO2 emissions anually such that the signature of manmade emissions is lost/swamped within the noise/bulk of the natural CO2 emissions. . .

August 13, 2011 7:36 am

Rational Debate says:
Terry, I don’t for the life of me know where you are coming from in saying that Mr. Bastardi has made no falsifiable prediction that temps won’t go up over the next decade. At the end of his article he stated:
“Time will provide the answer. … there should be a drop in global temperatures as measured by objective satellite measurement, at least back to the levels they were in the 1970s, when we first started measuring them via an objective source. If temperatures warm despite these natural cycles, you carry the day. We won’t have to wait the full 20-30 year period. I believe we will have our answer before this decade is done.”
I reply:
The testing of a hypothesis is necessarily by comparison of the predicted outcomes of observed events to the corresponding outcomes in a set of statistically independent observed statistical events. For statistical significance, there must be many observed events and the associated predictions. The observed events must be a subset of a set of fully described statistically independent statistical events not all of which are observed. The latter events occupy a “statistical population.” The former events occupy a “statistical sample.” Projections occupy a “statistical ensemble.” A “hypothesis” is a procedure for generating predictions.
Elements of this structure are missing from Bastardi’s description. In particular, he has not described his hypothesis, the population or the sample in sufficient detail for this hypothesis to be tested. Additionally, he has committed the error of confusing a “projection” with a “prediction”; they are different concepts.
In view of the errors and omissions, Bastardi’s hypothesis cannot be described as a “scientific” hypothesis. In view of similar errors and omissions, IPCC Working Group I’s claim to the existence of AGW cannot be described as a “scientific” hypothesis. AGW can neither be statistically validated nor statistically invalidated because the needed structure is not present.

Theo Goodwin
August 13, 2011 7:36 am

Terry Oldberg says:
August 12, 2011 at 9:19 pm
Good Work, thanks. Thanks for the reference too. The Gaia Modelers are not empirical scientists.

Robert Murphy
August 13, 2011 7:47 am

Bastardi:
“You and I cant run away from the truth. Global temps have leveled off. CO2 is rising.”
If that is true, your contention that temperature is driving CO2 falls apart. Why has CO2 continued to steadily go up (accelerating even) if as you say temps have stayed flat for 15 years (they haven’t actually, but that’s your claim)? Do you even read what you write?

Theo Goodwin
August 13, 2011 7:51 am

Matt says:
August 12, 2011 at 6:36 pm
“Your claim that the broad science community is not in touch with physical, empirical reality is thoroughly unfair. There are countless empirical measurements of climate sensitivities and feedbacks and for a wide variety of forcing mechanisms. You can always claim that it is “not enough” and that’s fine. But, don’t say that it doesn’t exist.”
Your response is yet another Classic Example of a Red Herring Fallacy. Warmista, when challenged, always change the subject. My claim was that Warmista, either of the Radiation Only Gaia Modeler or the Hide the Decline variety, have produced no reasonably well confirmed physical hypotheses that could explain and predict the forcings found in natural processes such as cloud formation. They are not working on them and have no interest in doing so. They are not physical scientists and they are not empirical scientists. They are teenagers obsessed with their supercomputers. In the future, supercomputers will have to be treated the same way that cigaretters are treated today, if not outrightly banned.

richard verney
August 13, 2011 7:51 am

Ralph says:
August 12, 2011 at 11:54 pm
>>KevinK says: August 12, 2011 at 8:04 pm
>>Each time the energy is redirected it travels as IR radiation at the speed of
>>light. So yes the “Greenhouse Effect” does indeed slow the flow of energy
>>through the system, but due to the speeds involved it is only capable of delaying
>>the release of heat by something like a few milliseconds
Can you explain that again for me – I know for a fact that a low stratus layer of cloud can maintain the surface temperature up to 10o warmer, for the whole night.
/////////////////////////////////////////////////
Ralph, the clouds in your example are restricting heat loss since they are inhibiting convection.

Tom in Florida
August 13, 2011 7:57 am

R. Gates says:
August 13, 2011 at 7:23 am
“Without human activity during the Holocene, CO2 levels would be 280 ppm or lower today.”
Another Gatesism. Just a statement without evidence, without meaning, without context. The answers to all Gatesisms are: “So what” and “what’s your point?”

Theo Goodwin
August 13, 2011 7:59 am

Slioch says:
August 13, 2011 at 6:29 am
What sceptics really want is a Warmista who will engage in debate without committing the Red Herring Fallacy. We want a Warmista who will not continually change the topic. Please note that you are a grand topic changer. Warmista introduced an argument and then fled from it by changing the topic. You are doing the same on a grander scale. Why won’t you address sceptical arguments? Have you ever asked yourself that question?

August 13, 2011 8:00 am

Matt says:
“@Smokey
“…The claim that the CO2 heat absorption is already saturated is just plain wrong.”
For Matt’s edification: click

Theo Goodwin
August 13, 2011 8:01 am

Roger Longstaff says:
August 13, 2011 at 3:12 am
Theo Goodwin says: August 12, 2011 at 6:41 pm: “By the way, ‘skeptical’ is the Brit spelling while ‘sceptical’ is the American spelling.”
“Wrong way round, old chap.”
Maybe I asserted a mere prejudice. Given your response, I am beginning to think that ‘sceptical’ is the accepted spelling and that ‘skeptical’ is archaic. What do you think?

Alan D McIntire
August 13, 2011 8:16 am

Matt says:
August 12, 2011 at 5:28 pm
“…..a simple back-of-the-envolope calculation that shows the warming from CO2 double to be about 2 deg. F”.
According to Trenbeth’s figures, the wattage flux at earth’s surface is about 490 watts, 390 in sensible heat and 100 in latent heat. A doubling of CO2 would supposedly increase that surface flux by something less than 3.7 watts. If all of that increase went into sensible heat, the
average surface temp would increase by (393.7/390)^0.25 -1 times the current avg temp of about 288 K , or 0.68 C = 1.2 F. That;s quite a bit less than your 2 F. Also, over 20% of the total flux goes into LATENT heat. That would reduce the actual temp increase to something like 1 F.

Latitude
August 13, 2011 8:21 am

R. Gates says:
August 13, 2011 at 7:23 am
Without human activity during the Holocene, CO2 levels would be 280 ppm or lower today.
==================================================================
I don’t see what the point is…..
…CO2 was lower in the past, and temperatures were higher
Even with CO2 as high as it is now, temperatures have not gone up as high as they were in the past when CO2 was lower…………………….
http://www.daviesand.com/Choices/Precautionary_Planning/New_Data/IceCores1.gif

August 13, 2011 8:39 am

I think most of you are missing my point on the principle of the greenhouse effect
http://www.letterdash.com/HenryP/the-greenhouse-effect-and-the-principle-of-re-radiation-11-Aug-2011
and BTW
As far as I know there are no actual measured test results that found that a doubling of CO2 gave such and such an increase in global temps. ….
All they did is look at the problem (of global warming) from the wrong end which is the worst mistake a scientist can make. They looked at global warming since 1750 and then they allocated a forcings to GHG’s depending on the increase of the specific GHG noted since that time. Eventually when that did not happen it got watered down to perhaps only half that amount (50%) and more such wild speculation.
What I am now finding (from actual samples from weather stations in the oceans and at the oceans) is that the influence of man on temps. is very little indeed
-minimum temps. is not what is pushing up average temps-
http://www.letterdash.com/HenryP/henrys-pool-table-on-global-warming

Roger Knights
August 13, 2011 8:40 am

Rhys Jaggar says:
August 12, 2011 at 11:49 pm
The question that needs to be asked of the warmists is what collateral they are prepared to put up against their assertions?
1. Money?
2. Their children?
3. Their career and reputation?
Just what is it that they will lay on the line when they make their claims?

Hopefully they’d be willing to bet that the temperature, per GISS, will be higher after the next three or seven years (2014 and 2019). They can do so on Intrade (and place other temperature- and ice-related bets), here: https://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventClassId=20

Theo Goodwin
August 13, 2011 8:41 am

Tom in Florida says:
August 13, 2011 at 7:57 am
Apparently, he has morphed from troll to resident wild-eyed Warmista.

Venter
August 13, 2011 8:41 am

John B,
I can’t speak for everyone but the facts will speak for themselves and no one can dispute measured empirical evidence. I’ll accept whatever facts are seen and measure the theories against observed facts. On that basis AGW is a big fail as the theory is not supported by a shred of empirical evidence. All the defence and waffling happening in support of that failed theory are dishonest.

Roger Knights
August 13, 2011 8:45 am

Robert Murphy says:
August 13, 2011 at 7:47 am

Bastardi:
“You and I cant run away from the truth. Global temps have leveled off. CO2 is rising.”

If that is true, your contention that temperature is driving CO2 falls apart. Why has CO2 continued to steadily go up (accelerating even) if as you say temps have stayed flat for 15 years (they haven’t actually, but that’s your claim)?

If we’re on a high-temperature plateau, there’s no contradiction.

Roger Longstaff
August 13, 2011 8:48 am

Dear Theo,
My comment was based upon almost 60 years of living in England, and trying my best to speak the Queen’s English. The dreaded “wiki” says:
“DefinitionIn ordinary usage, skepticism (US) or scepticism (UK) (Greek: ‘σκέπτομαι’ skeptomai, to think, to look about, to consider; see also spelling differences) refers to:
(a) an attitude of doubt or a disposition to incredulity either in general or toward a particular object;
(b) the doctrine that true knowledge or knowledge in a particular area is uncertain; or
(c) the method of suspended judgment, systematic doubt, or criticism that is characteristic of skeptics (Merriam–Webster).
In philosophy, skepticism refers more specifically to any one of several propositions. These include propositions about:
(a) an inquiry,
(b) a method of obtaining knowledge through systematic doubt and continual testing,
(c) the arbitrariness, relativity, or subjectivity of moral values,
(d) the limitations of knowledge,
(e) a method of intellectual caution and suspended judgment.
However (if this is correct) the original Greek uses a “K”, so maybe the US spelling is more accurate.
But we woz ‘ere first!!

Theo Goodwin
August 13, 2011 8:49 am

Terry Oldberg says:
August 13, 2011 at 7:36 am
Another good post. Though, I prefer to explain the matter by appeal to scientific method. Mr. Bastardi is using the word ‘prediction’ the way the man on the street uses it. In scientific prediction, one is claiming that a particular event, such as Venus in half-phase, is an instance of the natural regularities that make-up the physics of planetary orbits in this solar system. The crucial point is that the predicted event, Venus’ half-phase, is implied by the well-confirmed physical hypotheses that describe planetary orbits in our solar system. For my money, if you are serious about scientific prediction, then (1) you must be able to cite the well confirmed physical hypotheses and (2) they must imply the event predicted.
Mr. Bastardi is speaking like a man placing bets. It is a perfectly legitimate way of speaking but it is not science.

Roger Knights
August 13, 2011 8:57 am

Theo Goodwin says:
August 13, 2011 at 8:01 am

Roger Longstaff says:
August 13, 2011 at 3:12 am

Theo Goodwin says: August 12, 2011 at 6:41 pm: “By the way, ‘skeptical’ is the Brit spelling while ‘sceptical’ is the American spelling.”

“Wrong way round, old chap.”

Maybe I asserted a mere prejudice. Given your response, I am beginning to think that ‘sceptical’ is the accepted spelling and that ‘skeptical’ is archaic. What do you think?

Not according to Britisher Fowler’s classic Modern English Usage :
“The established pronunciation is sk-, whatever the spelling; and with the frequent modern use of septic and sepsis it is well that it should be so for fear of confusion. But to spell sc- and pronounce sk- is to put a needless difficulty in the way of the unlearned, for sce is normally pronounced se even in words where the c represents a Greek k, e.g., scene and its compounds and ascetic. America spells sk-; we might pocket our pride and copy.”

1DandyTroll
August 13, 2011 8:57 am

@Robert Murphy says:
August 13, 2011 at 7:47 am
“Bastardi:
“You and I cant run away from the truth. Global temps have leveled off. CO2 is rising.”
If that is true, your contention that temperature is driving CO2 falls apart. Why has CO2 continued to steadily go up (accelerating even) if as you say temps have stayed flat for 15 years (they haven’t actually, but that’s your claim)? Do you even read what you write?”
Well it’s not called lag for nothing. You do know the definition of lag right? It’s a very easy word to remember because lagging rimes with dragging behind. See, very easy.
And as for global average temperature it is a mere statistical hodgepodge phenomenon that actually has gone down slightly all pending your point of view of course. This is also very easy, if your a rational sane person who looks at proper data it has gone down, but, if you’re a green socialist staring at phony data it has gone up. See, also very easy.
Did you see what I did there?

netdr
August 13, 2011 8:58 am

I am skeptical of CAGW not AGW. The “catastrophe” only exists between the ears of the alarmists.
FACT:
CO2 traps heat; too bad but that has been proven by Arrhenius around 1850.
A bottle filled with 100 % CO2 and another filled with air 380/1,00,000 Parts heat differently. if exposed to sunlight.
[The CO2 one heats more. Would the one with 380/1,00,000 Parts be measurably warmer ? ]
Denying this simple fact just makes the skeptical arguments look foolish.
The CO2 slows the release of heat so of course it causes temperature to rise.
It is like pulling on an extra blanket when you are in bed. It slows the release of heat.
Denying the obvious just makes the skeptical position look worse and the alarmist position look better.
The effect is only .4 ° C per doubling of CO2 and isn’t significant. The amplifying/diminishing factors have been misunderstood and there is where the errors begin.

John Whitman
August 13, 2011 9:00 am

Let me summarize a recent repositioning in consensus CAGW thinking which I think is forced by their being assaulted by observations of climate.
Recent CAGW Consensus Repositioning => Now with satellite records of many climate parameters plus other actual in-depth modern era observations of climate parameters, we see evidence that aCO2 effect on the climate observed is insignificant. BUT with the questionable ice core records as our basis we see that all these recent observations must be false. So dear public we are left with our GCMs that are based on circular reasoning to be the sole base of our claim that the science is settled and aCO2 is destroying or will destroy our planet . . . get on with world revolution. Close you lying eyes to the observations, imagine circular GCM modeling instead.
CAGWers, did I get that right?
I actually commend you for your adaptive capabilities. I predict soon you will adapt all the way to the skeptic side as you are pragmatists . . . you will stay employed that way. Good news for you.
John

1DandyTroll
August 13, 2011 9:00 am

So, essentially, Bastardi is to weather as Chuck Norris is to action, completely demolish’ the other side… :p

Roger Knights
August 13, 2011 9:03 am

Oops, here’s the Fowler quote correctly italicized:

“The established pronunciation is sk-, whatever the spelling; and with the frequent modern use of septic and sepsis it is well that it should be so for fear of confusion. But to spell sc- and pronounce sk- is to put a needless difficulty in the way of the unlearned, for sce is normally pronounced se even in words where the c represents a Greek k, e.g., scene and its compounds and ascetic. America spells sk-; we might pocket our pride and copy.”

August 13, 2011 9:07 am

And as CO2 concentrations continue to rise, there is pronounced cooling taking place in the U.S.
http://thetruthpeddler.wordpress.com/2011/08/13/government-data-still-confirms-a-long-term-cooling-trend-for-the-us/

August 13, 2011 9:07 am

R. Gates, No where in the geologic record is there proof CO2 has any of the power you give it. The earth is technically still in an Ice Age. Ice ages can possibly experience warmer and cooler periods; like the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age. We don’t know exactly where we are in the Milankovitch Cycles; because no scientist on this planet knows exactly how long it takes from peak (really warm) to trough (really cold) because the data resolution is not clear going back in time so we cannot “see” or “know” such small time frames like “now” in the geologic record. And “now” there is still a lot of ice on this planet. The last interglacial period we can see in the data gave us sea level high stands in some places near 20 ft higher then now without any “extra CO2” and we are no where near that even with all the “extra CO2” you are worried about.
You are still just arguing over tenths of one degree of temperature on a graph; which happens to go up at the end of the Little Ice Age which; happens to also be the start of the “Industrial Age”. You don’t talk about the Little Ice Age; focus all of your attention to the Industrial Age and are throwing around the word “interglacial” without knowing what you are saying or even understanding geologic time and what we can say about it from the data.

August 13, 2011 9:16 am

In the Wikipedia writeup of Le Chatelier’s principle, it says, “Where a shock initially induces positive feedback (such as thermal runaway), the new equilibrium can be far from the old one, and can take a long time to reach.” This wouldn’t seem to contradict AGW very strongly. I doubt that more than a few warmists predict no stability ever.

August 13, 2011 9:24 am

netdr says
CO2 traps heat; too bad but that has been proven by Arrhenius around 1850.
A bottle filled with 100 % CO2 and another filled with air 380/1,00,000 Parts heat differently. if exposed to sunlight.
[The CO2 one heats more. Would the one with 380/1,00,000 Parts be measurably warmer ? ]
henry@netdr
were you able to follow my argument here
http://www.letterdash.com/HenryP/the-greenhouse-effect-and-the-principle-of-re-radiation-11-Aug-2011
especially what we see happening in figure 6 (concerning the re-radiation of CO2)?
So are we agreed that from where I am standing, like heatentrapment (24hr/day), CO2 also causes cooling (12hrs/day)?
Now how do you know which amount is larger, the cooling or the warming?

Theo Goodwin
August 13, 2011 9:31 am

Roger Knights says:
August 13, 2011 at 8:57 am
Good old Fowler’s! Thanks, Roger.

Theo Goodwin
August 13, 2011 9:35 am

Roger Longstaff says:
August 13, 2011 at 8:48 am
Dear Roger,
I was reading up from the bottom so replied to Mr. Knights first. I do love good old Fowler’s.
Yes, you were here first. The evidence is in John Locke, George Berkeley (pronounced Barkley), and David Hume. My heart tells me that we should follow David Hume’s usage.

Robert Murphy
August 13, 2011 9:35 am

“Well it’s not called lag for nothing.”
But according to Bastardi’s (and Salby’s) thesis, there is not supposed to be any lag. The warming is supposed to change CO2 levels right away. It clearly doesn’t. Why? Because changing temps are not what is causing the increase in CO2, we are. Changing temps take a *long* time to affect CO2 concentrations; the feedbacks are slow. That is why you can look at the ice core data and only see small changes in CO2 while there were significant (6-7 degrees C) changes in temperature. This is basic stuff.
“And as for global average temperature it is a mere statistical hodgepodge phenomenon that actually has gone down slightly all pending your point of view of course.”
Nonsense. You are not entitled to your own facts.
“This is also very easy, if your a rational sane person who looks at proper data it has gone down, but, if you’re a green socialist staring at phony data it has gone up. See, also very easy.
Did you see what I did there?”
Yes, you used an an hominem argument to evade the fact that the warming has not stopped. BTW, I’m a free market libertarian. I’m just honest enough to accept the evidence. Unlike Bastardi, for instance, who up above wrote a downward arrow for the trend from 1996 to present when in fact the trend is going up, and it has warmed about .12C. Phony data, indeed.

August 13, 2011 9:51 am

Theo:
Sceptical is indeed the English spelling, as in English as written in Britain. My understanding of the American spelling is because of the very real and deliberate ‘bastardisation’ ( that’s not an insult to Americans, it’s the proper term for it ) of British English during the pioneer years of American colonisation. I’m going off the top of my head here so don’t take anything as stone cold fact but as far as I am aware most of the settlers travelling west were barely literate and in a bid to make things easier for settlers to communicate with trading posts etcetera the spelling of many words was simplified, often phonetically, just so these people could write the way it sounded. This is why letters deemed superfluous such as the U in rumour, colour etc. were simply dropped. The K in Skeptic probably came about so as not to cause confusion with the soft ‘c’.
Of course ‘sceptic or skeptic might not have been in use by the frontiersmen but it’s the way that American English ( a phrase I dislike immensely as it’s just English, incorrectly used) has developed and been used.
Etymology puts it back to the Greek sképtesthai ( consider, examine) which oddly gave rise to the Latin scepticus and had by that time come to mean ‘initial doubt’. The Greek Skep also gave rise to the English word scope.
just my thoughts.

Theo Goodwin
August 13, 2011 9:57 am

“netdr says
CO2 traps heat; too bad but that has been proven by Arrhenius around 1850.”
But even poor old Arrhenius noted that predicting the effects of CO2 is a matter of predicting the forcings and that, given forcings, the net effect could be cooling. Warmista have no physical hypotheses about forcings.

August 13, 2011 10:01 am

Theo Goodwin says:
August 13, 2011 at 7:51 am
Matt says:
August 12, 2011 at 6:36 pm
“Your claim that the broad science community is not in touch with physical, empirical reality is thoroughly unfair. There are countless empirical measurements of climate sensitivities and feedbacks and for a wide variety of forcing mechanisms. You can always claim that it is “not enough” and that’s fine. But, don’t say that it doesn’t exist.”
“Your response is yet another Classic Example of a Red Herring Fallacy. Warmista, when challenged, always change the subject. My claim was that Warmista, either of the Radiation Only Gaia Modeler or the Hide the Decline variety, have produced no reasonably well confirmed physical hypotheses that could explain and predict the forcings found in natural processes such as cloud formation. They are not working on them and have no interest in doing so. They are not physical scientists and they are not empirical scientists. They are teenagers obsessed with their supercomputers. In the future, supercomputers will have to be treated the same way that cigaretters are treated today, if not outrightly banned”.
I was astonished reading in a paper edited by Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany,

The ‘‘temperature tracking’’ was implemented through a simple proportional control equation, of the form
E(t) = pk(deltaT^DATA(t) – delta T(t))
where E(t) are CO₂ emissions, and deltaT^DATA (t) – delta T(t) is the error between prescribed and simulated temperature change at a specific time, t.
The proportionality constant pk includes factors converting temperature to CO₂2 concentrations (CO₂2 concentration divided by climate sensitivity) and CO₂2 concentrations to emissions.

This fallacy is also known as: Non causa pro causa.
“The fallacy of Non Causa Pro Causa occurs when something is identified as the cause of an event, but it has not actually been shown to be the cause.
For example: “I took an aspirin and prayed to God, and my headache disappeared. So God cured me of the headache.”

V.

Theo Goodwin
August 13, 2011 10:08 am

ZootCadillac says:
August 13, 2011 at 9:51 am
“Of course ‘sceptic or skeptic might not have been in use by the frontiersmen but it’s the way that American English ( a phrase I dislike immensely as it’s just English, incorrectly used) has developed and been used.”
Thanks much. Actually, it was in use, most likely. They lacked polish not intelligence.

Chris Colose
August 13, 2011 10:16 am

@ Ryan Maue in response to my posting
I don’t think Bastardi is a great candidate either, since he is not an expert climate scientist, but he does seem to hold a lot of weight in certain circles because of the title “meteorologist” (it is not as though any of us can randomly get speaking time on FOX news). He does seem to be vocal, so I don’t think the choice is any poorer than those that think Al Gore should be publicly debated. But I think serious debate is confined to the academic literature; such “public” debates I think people like Bastardi are a good candidate for.
In any case, there are virtually no remaining “skeptical” climate experts publishing in the literature aside from the Alabama duo and Lindzen, and I think we’ve had more than enough commentary on them, so it is difficult to assess just how one should pick their battles when the “battle” is confined exclusively to the minds of people such as those on this blog…

August 13, 2011 10:33 am

Chris Colose says:
“I think serious debate is confined to the academic literature…”
Confined?? What an ignorant statement. Are you really that unaware of the fact that Climategate exposed the fraud and self-serving gaming of the climate peer review system by Mann and his pet journals?

phlogiston
August 13, 2011 10:44 am

The female FOX host looks like she’s admiring Joe’s biceps.

DesertYote
August 13, 2011 11:06 am

Well, so much for a science site 🙁
I thought surely here was a place to get an answer to a relevant question, but it looks like no one knows the answer to my simple question. I guess arguing with fools like R.Gates is more important then disusing science.
I know that I am an aspie, and that I have difficulty serializing my thoughts when I try to express myself. Believe me, I am use to being misunderstood. But I really took pains to be clear this time.

August 13, 2011 11:08 am

phlogiston,
No doubt. click

chemman
August 13, 2011 11:21 am

1DandyTroll says:
__________________________________________________________________________
Because the temperature that is driving the increase in CO2 is the temperature of the ocean. It takes far longer for the temperatures in the ocean to change than the atmosphere.

August 13, 2011 11:22 am

LazyTeenager says:
August 12, 2011 at 6:35 pm

The models do not say the heat is trapped. They say the rate of heat transfer to outer space is being reduced. The NASA satellites say exactly the same thing.

Here you are WRONG! … ie: the infamous “hot spot” at 400Mb … the models DO predict this, but the question is, where is it? .. a: it doesn’t exists as the models DO predict!

John Whitman
August 13, 2011 11:26 am

Chris Colose says:
August 13, 2011 at 10:16 am
[ . . . ] But I think serious debate is confined to the academic literature; [ . . . ]

—————
C. Colose,
I will apply your logic to yourself. Chris, make sure your “serious debate is confined to the academic literature”.
By your own thinking, you are not saying anything serious here because this venue isn’t academic literature. So we do not need to take you seriously here. I will take your opinion of your own commenting here and disregard it, using your own logic.
And Chris, please post all your serious debate in your academic literature authored by you. Not here, of course since this is not serious academia. Post it with academia so the professor friends of mine can share it with me outside of the “confines of academic literature”.
Nice day here on the lakeshore in the Adirondack Mtns of upstate NY. Do you ever get over here? It is nearby. I will happily buy you a brew and we can continue our discussion.
Chris, with your attitude, is it a wonder supporters of CAGW are increasingly not trusted?
John

Venter
August 13, 2011 11:30 am

For somebody who’s published nothing, Chris Colose talks a lot of crap.

August 13, 2011 11:41 am

Chris Colose says
when the “battle” is confined exclusively to the minds of people such as those on this blog…
Chris,
a lie, if it is repeated ofthen enough is eventually accepted as the truth.
In fact, people are inclined to believe a bigger lie rather than a smaller one
And who controls this? It is not the people on this blog. In fact it is not even all the people on all the science blogs.
Even Hitler knew that the media was important….to get his propoganda across…
It is the media that are perpetrating the lie, not only because the people watching want to believe that they are doing things that will doom them, but also because, and many people have overlooked this,
of the fact that there is an enormous investment in “clean” energy. They cannot go back, because even your and mine pension fund will suffer if it turns out that we don’t need the windmills….
in this respect I find that many sceptics including myself are perhaps too laid back in accepting the rubbish that is broadcast in the media as the truth and we don’t complain. Perhaps it is our (higher?) intelligence that “convinces” us to let those people be in believing that catastrophes and doom will come from the back of our cars.
(where it is in fact the opposite – unless someone can prove to me that the CO2 warms more than it cools and that it destroys rather than builds life on earth ?)
I have complained twice now here at a radio station, and even though I lost my complaints at the BCCSA (quoting from my pool table on global warming) because of lack of peer review (I don’t have the time for that nor do I know anyone here who is a learned sceptic), I have noticed that they have not gone again to the same subject or in the direction of promising doom and gloom from more CO2 and methane. They have become a lot more careful.
So perhaps our answer to the lies must be that we (sceptics) have to become more active and that whenever we notice the media talking nonsense again, we simply have to query them on the science and demand answers (even though we know the answers or that there are no answers).

Alan D McIntire
August 13, 2011 12:03 pm

Prior to the mid 18th century, the spelling of English was not standardized. According to this link,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_and_British_English_spelling_differences
current British spelling follows Samuel Johnson’s 1755 dictionary while American spelling follows
Noah Webster’s 1828 dictionary. Both Johnson’s and Webster’s dictionaries list the derived from Greek word as ” skeptic”. I guess the British think the word comes from French, whence their spelling.

phlogiston
August 13, 2011 12:15 pm

Smokey says:
August 13, 2011 at 11:08 am
phlogiston,
No doubt. click
Looks like even his cheek muscles have definition.

P Wilson
August 13, 2011 12:16 pm

To be clear what the logarithmic effect of co2 means – it means that if you have 50wm2 of heat escaping at 300ppm c02, then you have 4wm2 delayed heat transfer. If you have 50wm2 of heat leaving, then you still have 4wm2 delayed.
More c02 doesn’t mean more energy/radiation delay – something like a factor 10 sunblock doesn’t increase to factor 20 if you double the amount you put in your skin.
You’d have to buy a factor 20 instead.

P Wilson
August 13, 2011 12:19 pm

unfortunately, nature abhors human logic, just as it did in Galileo’s day when he went to the top of the leaning tower of Pisa to disprove Aristotle’s assertion that an object weighing 10 times another object will reach the ground 10 times more quickly because it is 10 times heavier.
Same story with doubling co2. It just changes the distance of heat absortion – and adds nothing to the energy budget

Theo Goodwin
August 13, 2011 12:20 pm

Chris Colose says:
August 13, 2011 at 10:16 am
“In any case, there are virtually no remaining “skeptical” climate experts publishing in the literature aside from the Alabama duo and Lindzen, and I think we’ve had more than enough commentary on them, so it is difficult to assess just how one should pick their battles when the “battle” is confined exclusively to the minds of people such as those on this blog…”
OK, I will explain one more time. Science is the critical discipline par excellence. When a scientist puts forth a hypothesis, the scientist and all other interested scientists begin the process of criticism. This process of criticism is far more important the the hypothesis that was put forth. After criticism, the hypothesis might not even resemble what the scientist started with but great advances might have been made in understanding.
You hold the simple-minded belief that science is just dueling hypotheses. You hold the simple-minded belief that if you are not putting forth hypotheses then you are somehow deficient as a scientist. What this shows about you is that you have a deficient understanding of science and scientific method. You do not respect criticism because you do not have a clue how it is done and you cannot do it.
Warmista continually trumpet your simple-minded view because all they have ever created is Radiation Only Gaia Models, magical statistics, and some historical reconstruction that has to hide the decline. They have not one reasonably well confirmed physical hypothesis that can be used to explain and predict forcings such as cloud behavior. They have shown themselves incapable of criticism of their own work and incapable of intelligent defense against criticisms coming from sceptics. The only game they have is to try to change the topic to their Radiation Only Gaia Models, etc. That is the same game you are playing. The Radiation Only Gaia Models are total and complete failures by any standard used to judge scientific hypotheses. They are now far beyond failures; they are downright cookie-cutter same old same old boring.
I will be happy to receive your focused, reasoned response.

P Wilson
August 13, 2011 12:22 pm

addendum – typing too quickly – to 1st para
To be clear what the logarithmic effect of co2 means – it means that if you have 50wm2 of heat escaping at 300ppm c02, then you have 4wm2 delayed heat transfer. If you have 50wm2 of heat leaving, at 500ppm co2 then you still have 4wm2 delayed.

Myrrh
August 13, 2011 12:26 pm

Has anyone collated the nonsense experiments and claims from AGW? How big a blanket around the Earth stopping heat from escaping?? As Kelvin Vaughan asked, where’s the majik? It’s practically 100% not Carbon Dioxide, so 100% holes.
Heating air and carbon dioxide – was the experiment ever shown complete? Carbon dioxide has a low heat capacity which means it heats up more quickly than air, (especially humid air because water has a very great heat capacity), but loses the heat more quickly too because low heat capacity is saying that. This means practically instantly with CO2, which would be shown if the experiment was timed. CO2 with low heat capacity cannot ‘store’ any heat, water with higher can – which is why we put water in our central heating systems. Water having a much higher heat capacity takes longer to heat up and but longer too cool down. Nitrogen and Oxygen have higher heat capacities than Carbon Dioxide.

Theo Goodwin
August 13, 2011 12:26 pm

Volker Doormann says:
August 13, 2011 at 10:01 am
Excellent work, Volker. It is very important that fallacies are explained to the Warmista. The poor Warmista live among fallacies as the homeless live among thieves.

August 13, 2011 12:34 pm

Chris Colose says
when the “battle” is confined exclusively to the minds of people such as those on this blog…
Chris,
a lie, if it is repeated often enough is eventually accepted as the truth.
In fact, people are inclined to believe a bigger lie rather than a smaller one
And who controls this? It is not the people on this blog. In fact it is not even all the people on all the science blogs.
Even Hitler knew that the media was important….to get his propaganda across…
It is the media that are perpetrating the lie, not only because the people watching want to believe that they are doing things that will doom them, but also because, and many people have overlooked this,
of the fact that there is an enormous investment in “clean” energy. They cannot go back, because even your and mine pension fund will suffer if it turns out that we don’t need the windmills….
in this respect I find that many sceptics including myself are perhaps too laid back in accepting the rubbish that is broadcast in the media as the truth and we don’t complain. Perhaps it is our (higher?) intelligence that “convinces” us to let those people be in believing that catastrophes and doom will come from the back of our cars.
(where it is in fact the opposite – unless someone can prove to me that the CO2 warms more than it cools and that it destroys rather than builds life on earth ?)
I have complained twice now here at a radio station, and even though I lost my complaints at the BCCSA (quoting from my pool table on global warming) because of lack of peer review (I don’t have the time for that nor do I know anyone here who is a learned sceptic), I have noticed that they have not gone again to the same subject or in the direction of promising doom and gloom from more CO2 and methane. They have become a lot more careful.
So perhaps our answer to the lies must be that we (sceptics) have to become more active and that whenever we notice the media talking nonsense again, we simply have to query them on the science and demand answers (even though we know the answers or that there are no answers).

August 13, 2011 12:40 pm

Henry@desertyote
I did answer your question here:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/08/12/bastardi-science-and-reality-point-away-not-toward-co2-as-climate-driver/#comment-718558
Nobody knows the answers because there are no real test results.
the doubling nonsense just started with somebody who thought he had real test results.
Methane is also mentioned in fig. 6, so it also cools the atmosphere.
try to understand my quoted post and soon you will be on your way to become a sceptic – or is it skeptic

Theo Goodwin
August 13, 2011 12:43 pm

Alan D McIntire says:
August 13, 2011 at 12:03 pm
Excellent information, Alan, Thanks. Let me retreat to what I believe with great confidence. Among American academic philosophers of the last sixty years, ‘sceptic’ is the accepted spelling.

P Wilson
August 13, 2011 12:44 pm

Myrrh says:
August 13, 2011 at 12:26 pm
Yes it was shown by Knut Ångström, who asked an assistant to measure the passage of infrared radiation through a tube filled with carbon dioxide. The assistant put in rather less of the gas in total than would be found in a column of air reaching to the top of the atmosphere. The assistant reported that the amount of radiation that got through the tube scarcely changed when he cut the quantity of gas back by a third. Apparently it took only a trace of the gas to “saturate” the absorption — that is, in the bands of the spectrum where CO2 blocked radiation, it did it so thoroughly that more gas could make little difference.

P Wilson
August 13, 2011 12:45 pm

what really matters are things like air pressure, humidity, water vapour, cloudiness and factors like that, to temperatures.
calling trace gases the critical factor in climate is like saying that the needle makes the haystack

Theo Goodwin
August 13, 2011 12:49 pm

Liza Robinson says:
August 13, 2011 at 9:07 am
Very well said! Hats off to Liza the geologist.

Chris Colose
August 13, 2011 12:51 pm

//”I will be happy to receive your focused, reasoned response.”//
When you are capable of writing a post that demonstrates familiarity with the field (i.e., not making things up like we consider only radiation) or without the typical conspiracy theories, then we can have a dialogue.

Green Sand
August 13, 2011 12:54 pm

Joe Bastardi says:
August 12, 2011 at 7:07 pm
Someone is right and someone is wrong…..
Let reality decide what was right and wrong…..
You have eyes, you be the judge.

———————————————————–
Who loves ya Joe baby?
Good ole US of A enterprise, cut out the “hypothetical” middle men!

August 13, 2011 1:15 pm

Henry@P Wilson, myrrh
Your theories are interesting but
again,
they do not explain what I see happening
there is re-radiation
so there is heat entrapment (deflection back to earth ) and there is cooling (deflection back to the sun )
try to understand what happens in fig 6 that I quote in my footnote, here
http://www.letterdash.com/HenryP/the-greenhouse-effect-and-the-principle-of-re-radiation-11-Aug-2011

August 13, 2011 1:17 pm

Chris Colose is a naive young know-it-all, literally wet behind the ears.

Chris Colose
August 13, 2011 1:20 pm

Thanks Smokey, and what is your background?

P Wilson
August 13, 2011 1:32 pm

well not really about re-radiation or back radiation, That notion was put together when they couldn’t find the infamous *hotspot*, so therefore concluded that if the part of the atmosphere (upper troposphere) wasn’t heating then that radiation must be coming back to earth.
http://cbdakota.wordpress.com/2010/01/02/agw-where-is-the-predicted-hot-spot/
However, the laws of thermodynamics enter into this equation. Co2 intercepts radiation at 15 microns – which is the equivalent of minus 36C – the sort of temperatures at the poles. Thepart of the atmosphere where co2 is active is therefore some several km up where it is -36C. If heat leaves at 10 microns (equivalent to 15C) then co2 is invisible to this – so as you can see, there is not much logic to explain how radiation at -36 can come back to earth and elevate temperatures by another 1C, to 16C, say as example. Its like arguing that freezing water will increase cause it to warm.

John B
August 13, 2011 1:32 pm

Chris Colose appears to be an “Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences student at UW-Madison.” Sheesh! Wasting his time studying climate related stuff at university when he could just be picking up cherries from ther likes of Smokey. What a loser!

1DandyTroll
August 13, 2011 1:38 pm

chemman says:
August 13, 2011 at 11:21 am
1DandyTroll says:
__________________________________________________________________________
Because the temperature that is driving the increase in CO2 is the temperature of the ocean. It takes far longer for the temperatures in the ocean to change than the atmosphere.
Actually more CO2 is released into the atmosphere after the fact of warming so it doesn’t matter how long it takes to warm the oceans. And besides the oceans has been warming since the last ice age at the very least. Statistically speaking the oceans has been cooling for the last couple of billions of years though. Still CO2 comes later.

John Whitman
August 13, 2011 1:43 pm

Smokey,
Consider that we might be dealing with a fragile personality acting out in compensation for it.
John

August 13, 2011 1:58 pm

Chris Colose says:
“Thanks Smokey, and what is your background?”
Thirty years employment in a large [140+ engineers and technicians] national Metrology lab, designing, calibrating and repairing weather related instruments such as dew point meters, humidity meters, temperature dataloggers, thermocouples, thermometers, PRTs, RTDs, and related instruments. All traceable to the National Bureau of Standards, later to N.I.S.T. / ISO9000, both primary and secondary standards. I also did calibration of Mass standards. Retired in 2003.
We received most all of the peer reviewed literature, gratis, from the calibration instrument vendors, and I witnessed first-hand the ramp up of the CO2 [“carbon”] scare, along with the absolute degradation of peer reviewed papers. I don’t recall a single engineer out of more than 140 who believed in the runaway global warming scare [that’s probably because they were engineers, not sociologists, or grant-seeking climatologists].
So now I must ask John B: And what is your background?

R. Gates
August 13, 2011 2:13 pm

Liza Robinson says:
August 13, 2011 at 9:07 am
R. Gates, No where in the geologic record is there proof CO2 has any of the power you give it. The earth is technically still in an Ice Age. Ice ages can possibly experience warmer and cooler periods; like the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age. We don’t know exactly where we are in the Milankovitch Cycles; because no scientist on this planet knows exactly how long it takes from peak (really warm) to trough (really cold) because the data resolution is not clear going back in time so we cannot “see” or “know” such small time frames like “now” in the geologic record. And “now” there is still a lot of ice on this planet. The last interglacial period we can see in the data gave us sea level high stands in some places near 20 ft higher then now without any “extra CO2″ and we are no where near that even with all the “extra CO2″ you are worried about.
You are still just arguing over tenths of one degree of temperature on a graph; which happens to go up at the end of the Little Ice Age which; happens to also be the start of the “Industrial Age”. You don’t talk about the Little Ice Age; focus all of your attention to the Industrial Age and are throwing around the word “interglacial” without knowing what you are saying or even understanding geologic time and what we can say about it from the data.
_____
Liza,
Don’t know your background, and I would not presume to school you the way you’ve attempted to school me in this rather rude post. I know quite well the difference between ice ages, interglacials, glacials, and their relationship to each other. Furthermore, I’m quite aware of the role of Milankovitch cycles in bringing about the shift from glacial to interglacial periods. You are correct that we don’t know exactly where we are in this current interglacial, however, we do know exactly where we are in the current Milankovitch cycle, as these astronomical calculations are relatively easy to figure out. The peak of NH summer insolation occurred during the Holocene Climate Optimum, and indeed, temperatures had been declining since that time, with the exception of the MWP and of course, the 20th and early 21st century. Since the time of the Holocene Optimum, CO2 levels had been generally about 280 ppm, until dropping a bit during the Little Ice Age, and then exploding upward with the beginning of industrialization about 1750. If anyone wants to really look at the figures, and this graph, and try to tell me that they don’t think that human activity has play THE significant role in the explosion upward in CO2 levels since about 1750, then it seems you simply don’t want to see the facts:
http://i39.tinypic.com/if0m5g.jpg
Now, do warmer ocean temps cause CO2 to increase through outgassing? Yes, of course, up to a point, and we should be glad this is the case as a little bit of warming of the NH oceans and the subsequent outgassing of CO2 seems to be a major positive reinforcement effect during a Milankovtich induced interglacial. But, the CO2 increases we’ve seen since about 1750 is way out of proportion to anything that outgassing of the ocean could have caused, and indeed, so much CO2 has been released from the burning of fossil fuels, that the ocean has been taking up much of this excess over this period rather than any sort of outgassing. The ocean over the past few centuries have be net carbon sinks, not sources.

Theo Goodwin
August 13, 2011 2:13 pm

Chris Colose says:
August 13, 2011 at 12:51 pm
“When you are capable of writing a post that demonstrates familiarity with the field (i.e., not making things up like we consider only radiation) or without the typical conspiracy theories, then we can have a dialogue.”
So, you are here just to tell us that we are too ignorant to discuss climate science with you? That is the sum total of what you have to say? What an interesting person you are! What sort of person would go to a group of people for the purpose of telling them that they are too ignorant to engage in dialogue with him?
I will state the gist of what I said in detail above. You are completely ignorant of scientific method. You are completely ignorant of the role of criticism in science. You are completely ignorant of the duty of each scientist to be his own most severe critic. But I am not like you. I did not seek you out to call you ignorant. I simply responded to the ignorance demonstrated in the posts that you made here.
When you are capable of writing a post that demonstrates familiarity with scientific method then we can have a dialogue.

Chris Colose
August 13, 2011 2:18 pm

Smokey, with respect:
Although I am a graduate student, as John B notes, I have at least taken the opportunity to properly educate myself in the atmospheric sciences, and am now doing research on climate related issues (currently stationed at NASA GISS and alternating between that and classwork). This is unlike most people who feel that they have become qualified as an expert based on blog commentary and youtube videos. I have seen a lot of (generally retired) engineers, programmers, etc who think they understand climate.
We can go on all day about who has done what. Personally, rather than being a “know-it-all” I generally only comment confidently about topics I am confident in. For example, I probably would not start arguing with you about how you designed an instrument with your engineering colleagues. I would not go on a blog site denying the existence of black holes and then start arguing with an astrophysicist. I do not know if you are simply confused, or as a retiree if you feel that the issue of climate change somehow threatens you, or whether you are basing your science on “scares” experienced in the course of your lifetime. However, as someone in the sciences, I am not given the freedom to simply make things up on a whim, create straw man arguments (like “we’re going to have runaway global warming!”), and in terms of my education I am certainly not going to elevate an engineer with no exposure to the field over professors and researchers I interact with daily (who have published and are at the forefront of their specialty).
In any case, my challenge to Bastardi to actually defend his arguments still remains. He has made very definitive and confident claims on venues like Fox News, and seems to prefer vague statements through the few comments he has made here that do not address any particular person or counter-argument, but simply utters useless commentary like “Someone is right and someone is wrong” or irrelevant distractions like how people put CO2 in a greenhouse to help plants. Ryan Maue argues that this is a useless challenge, in part because Bastardi is not an academic researcher, but he nonetheless holds enough weight to convince various groups of people (including those watching on TV) and apparently the people here at WUWT.

John B
August 13, 2011 2:26 pm

Only seeing as you asked: Chemistry degree (1981), 30 years as a software engineer, Master’s in Bioinformatics (2010). I aslo teach Java and other software stuff for a large American technical training organisation. Skeptic (yes, really)

Charles
August 13, 2011 2:46 pm

Mr. Bastardi (or anyone else)–can you explain how you got that blue curve (the one with the arrow) that you derived from the HadCRUT data? I’ve tried to replicate it, but haven’t been able to do so. Thanks.

sceptical
August 13, 2011 2:56 pm

If temperatures drive CO2 and temperatures have not risen in 15 years, why have CO2 levels continued to rise?

DesertYote
August 13, 2011 3:19 pm

HenryP
August 13, 2011 at 12:40 pm
###
Thanks, that’s certainly more info then I had before. BTW, I am already very doubtful that human CO2 emissions have any affect of global temperatures. I’m pretty good with both physics and ecology. I have spent most of my life taking measurements of physical phenomena, both as a test engineer working in the test equipment industry, and as a fresh water ecologist. I have set up, and maintained quite a few experimental aquaria with various methods of CO2 injection, all requiring careful monitoring. I am pretty familiar how CO2 behaves in fresh water systems. And the AGW theory dose not make any sense against what I have actually measured.

DesertYote
August 13, 2011 3:22 pm

Smokey
August 13, 2011 at 1:58 pm
###
Sound like you work in a field very closely related to a field I spent 10 years in. You would probably recognize the name of my former employer.

Rational Debate
August 13, 2011 3:29 pm

re post by: Theo Goodwin says: August 13, 2011 at 12:20 pm
Well said!

Rational Debate
August 13, 2011 3:56 pm

re: post by: John B says: August 13, 2011 at 1:32 pm

Chris Colose appears to be an “Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences student at UW-Madison.” Sheesh! Wasting his time studying climate related stuff at university when he could just be picking up cherries from ther likes of Smokey. What a loser!

John B, if you don’t believe that there are folks regularly posting here on WUWT who have vastly greater scientific credentials and experience than a simple Univ. student (or even recent grad), you would be sorely mistaken.
Smokey seems to have summed up Chris Colose pretty well. Almost all young college students are ‘wet behind the ears,’ virtually by definition. Fortunately not all suffer as much from the ‘know it all’ and naivete problems. I’d strongly suggest that Chris Colose spend some serious time studying the very basis of science itself for a bit – he seems to have slipped in that area of his studies and needs to solidify the basic tenets and principles of science in his mind before his other science studies can bear fruit.

Chris Colose
August 13, 2011 4:01 pm

Theo- I didn’t say people were too ignorant to discuss, just they should actually understand what the science says before they criticize it. I won’t defend phantom theories from attacks. I can also assure you I am familiar with the scientific method. Constructive criticism is one way to help science advance; making stuff up and repeating logically fallacious one-liner talking points does not count. Nor does using conspiracy theories as justification for why you shouldn’t have to familiarize yourself with the science. Sorry if you disagree.

tommy
August 13, 2011 4:10 pm

@R. Gates
I agree with you that humans are at least partly responsible for increased co2 levels, but that does not change the fact that temperatures control the natural co2 cycle, which is something that ice cores clearly show.
I bet also a big part of the co2 increase is deforestation. But either way this increase in co2 wont have any significant effect on global temperatures.

John B
August 13, 2011 4:18 pm

sceptical says:
August 13, 2011 at 2:56 pm
If temperatures drive CO2 and temperatures have not risen in 15 years, why have CO2 levels continued to rise?
—————–
First, it is not true that temperatures have not risen for 15 years. A couple of outlier years (1998 and 2005) do not overturn the the warming trend. But as to why CO2 has continued to rise, it is because we continue to emit CO2, it’s that simple. Most “skeptics” must be embarrassed by Joe’s post. Why temperatures have not risen (much) in those 15 years while CO2 continued to rise is a separate question.

John B
August 13, 2011 4:35 pm

Rational Debate says:
August 13, 2011 at 3:56 pm
John B, if you don’t believe that there are folks regularly posting here on WUWT who have vastly greater scientific credentials and experience than a simple Univ. student (or even recent grad), you would be sorely mistaken.
——-
I don’t care about anyone’s “credentials”, just the quality of their arguments. It seems to me that Chris talks knowledgably about an area he has studied, while Smokey, for one, just posts out of context, cherry picked charts in an attempt to preach to the insufficiently skeptical choir to be found here.

phlogiston
August 13, 2011 5:16 pm

Chris Colose says:
August 12, 2011 at 5:35 pm
This thread will be a good test to see how skeptical WUWT readers are of their own skepticism.
All of Bastardi’s talking points here can be traced back a long time, and they reflect severe unfamiliarity with the field and have been addressed countless times. Over at Tamino’s, he left a message full or errors at which I challenged him to an open debate on the matter.
http://tamino.wordpress.com/2011/08/10/settled-science/#comment-53136
I would like to how well he can perform when required to scientifically address criticisms of his claims.

What do you mean by “all of Bastardi’s talking points”? It would be clearer to spell out the ones for which you have something to say.
The essence of JB’s post here is that the counter-hypothesis to AGW is that the recent global temperature rise is part of a natural climatic oscillation and that as such, one may expect temperatures to start declining in the not too distant future. Notably he also says: “If temperatures warm despite these natural cycles, you carry the day.” So he is willing to be proved wrong in the Karl Popper sense of science needing to be falsifiable (something you might consider working into your thesis intro chapter somewhere).
(Another tip for your write-up: severe is not a good adjective for unfamiliarity. Something else like “deep lack of familarity” would have been better.)
What problem do you have with that open and testable position? With the vulnerability to falsification? Have you been trained by Tamino to reject falsifiability as a scientific criterion, to stay in the safe regions of what can be muddled and fudged, and resist and testing?
There were some specific, testable points from JB to which you might have been referring:
1. Satellite data suggests that the radiative imbalance required by AGW is absent, that outgoing IR is greater than permitted by CAGW. This is really Roy Spencer territory, so it is with him you would need to take up this point.
2. The global temperature has risen in a quasi-linear manner since the end of the LIA, while CO2 concentration in air has risen quadratically over that time – a striking mismatch. This is a serious challenge to CAGW. Do you have anything to say about it? There is a trend in climate literature to try to explain every temperature change in the last century as resulting from a balance of an anthropogenic warmig effect of CO2 and an equally anthropogenic cooling influence from sulphate aerosols. This assumes a dominating effect of anthropogenic gasses on every wiggle of the temperature curve – thus the mismatch since the LIA is deeply problematic. CAGW proponents cany have it both ways – strong control of climate by CO2 but mismatching CO2 and temperature curves.
3. JB then dipped in to solar territory. He reiterated the body of opinion that solar changes, for instance reflected in sunspot numbers, reflect a strong solar controlling influence on climate. Here again JB is mainly citing others since he is not a solar scientist primarily – but he is one of the more successful meteorologists who maintains healthy curiosity in solar science and its climate implications, as indeed anyone should who wishes to understand something about climate. However the point here again is simple: we are now able to test this, yes or no, true or false? What dont you like about that? We are now entering a moderate to deep solar minimum, starting this decade and lasting several decades. Does the sunspot cycle dominate temperature? Then temperatures must now fall. If they dont, the theory is toast. What’s not to like about that?
4. JB then briefly touches on the CO2 and temperature chicken-and-egg question that is one of the biggest problems for CAGW. The several ice core palaeo datasets are unanimous that, over the last few glacial-interglacial cycles, CO2 change lags temperature changes, not the other way around. The CAGW position on this is one of the biggest pieces of tortuous nonsense I have every heard – that at first “something else” causes temperature to increase, this sets of a CO2 increase, but then the CO2, cukoo-like, usurps the role as driver of temeprature, effortlessly displacing the factor first causing the warming – and all the while the temperature rise shows no exponential or logarithmic form that would be expected if CO2 were propelling a positive feedback. Scientific theories to explain natural phenomena are supposed to be economical and parsimonious – this is the extreme reverse – it is little more than garbled wishful thinking. CAGW needs something better than this – do you have any ideas?
5. FInally JB makes what is, in this article, his most original and interesting point – that climate instability is more characteristic of a cooling than of a warming temperature regime. His deep familiarity with meteorologic records means he is on strong ground here. For me what is interesting is the fractal character of climate dynamics that this suggests. It is very clear from the Vostok and other ice core records of the last half million or so years that global fluctuations in temperature on a multi-century timescale are much more frequent and violent during descents into glacial periods than during warm interglacials, which are by contrast more stable regimes. The same is true when climate is looked at at a closer scale of decades (that is what fratal means). This is a serious challenge to the CAGW and media communities habit of trousering all extreme weather events as proof of CAGW. They might well be the opposite! More real science is needed. Do you have any?
So in summary, global temperatures go up and down naturally. Is the current rise from CAGW or just a natural up-wave? We can find out, just wait and see? This is real science, nothing to get offended at if you are a real scientist. Even the admission that one migh be wrong and that the future might prove this.
A recent post at WUWT showed how similar the recent temperature history is with many periods within the Holocene:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/07/01/whats-up-next/
In this context, the reference that springs to mind is the following (another one for your thesis!):
Ecclesiastes chapter 1
1 The words of the Teacher,[a] son of David, king in Jerusalem:
2 “Meaningless! Meaningless!”
says the Teacher.
“Utterly meaningless!
Everything is meaningless.”
3 What do people gain from all their labors
at which they toil under the sun?
4 Generations come and generations go,
but the earth remains forever.
5 The sun rises and the sun sets,
and hurries back to where it rises.
6 The wind blows to the south
and turns to the north;
round and round it goes,
ever returning on its course.
7 All streams flow into the sea,
yet the sea is never full.
To the place the streams come from,
there they return again.
8 All things are wearisome,
more than one can say.
The eye never has enough of seeing,
nor the ear its fill of hearing.
9 What has been will be again,
what has been done will be done again;
there is nothing new under the sun.
10 Is there anything of which one can say,
“Look! This is something new”?
It was here already, long ago;
it was here before our time.
11 No one remembers the former generations,
and even those yet to come
will not be remembered
by those who follow them.

August 13, 2011 5:16 pm

R. Gates, I am sorry if I sound rude but you don’t know what you are talking about and I am tired of people like you trying to scare children. You’ve been doing so for over ten years. The kids are grown up now and can think for themselves btw. 😉
My husband is a scientist and an expert on the Milankovitch Cycles. The calcs aren’t “easy” because your data and timing looking at the past could be plus or minus thousands of years. As I mentioned above the data resolution makes it impossible to be so sure like you are. There is no precise notion of “where we are” in the Milankovitch Cycles or how long it takes from peak to trough. That’s BS. You and your calcs could be off by thousands of years and you are arguing about a few hundred years with a fraction of a degree of “average temp” difference compared to when again?
The scientists in the 1970s (who Time Magazine paid attention to and published) were worried about another ice age coming exactly because we don’t know where we are at in these cycles. That was me they were trying to scare back then.
Your graph shows C02 concentrations rising since 1600. Amazing that they can monitor things like that in the 1600s. 😉 1600 to 1850 was the Little Ice Age, yes. It was below normal cold for over 200 yrs over half of the globe. Life doesn’t like cold that much; it likes warm. CO2 = Life.
Cheers!

August 13, 2011 5:23 pm

Desert Yote says:
“You would probably recognize the name of my former employer.”
And you would certainly recognize mine. Maybe we worked for the same company.
John Whitman says:
“Smokey,
Consider that we might be dealing with a fragile personality acting out in compensation for it.”
Of course. John B’s best argument to date is: “What a loser!” That’s generally how someone responds when they lack a credible argument.☺

Theo Goodwin
August 13, 2011 5:25 pm

Chris Colose writes:
“I am certainly not going to elevate an engineer with no exposure to the field over professors and researchers I interact with daily (who have published and are at the forefront of their specialty).”
You are judging people who make arguments rather than judging the arguments that people make. If you want to take Al Gore as your career model, you are free to do so here in the USA.
However, if you want to follow some standard of rationality then the very first thing that you must do is to judge people’s arguments rather than judging people who make arguments. Warmista have demonstrated over a matter of years that they have an incredible problem embracing some standard of rationality, whether that standard be scientific method or some other standard.
I gave you a simple challenge. Produce some reasonably well-confirmed physical hypothesis that can be used to explain and predict some forcing such as changes in cloud behavior caused by increasing manmade CO2. You know that no such hypotheses exist. You also know that Warmista are not actively engaged in empirical research that could lead to such hypotheses. If you can produce one such hypothesis then I will bow to you and your professors. But if you cannot produce one such hypothesis then you must admit that Warmista have created no reasonably well-confirmed physical hypotheses that could take them beyond the work of Arrhenius. Warmista are neither physical scientists nor empirical scientists.
As an alternative which demonstrates your knowledge of scientific method, you might explain why I place such importance on the physical hypotheses that I have briefly described and why I am justified in claiming that the lack of them shows that Warmista are neither physical scientists nor empirical scientists. You may try to explain why my views of scientific method are mistaken. I would just love that debate.

Theo Goodwin
August 13, 2011 5:28 pm

Chris Colose says:
August 13, 2011 at 4:01 pm
“Theo- I didn’t say people were too ignorant to discuss, just they should actually understand what the science says before they criticize it.”
The two clauses say the same thing.
“I can also assure you I am familiar with the scientific method.”
Good. Explain how Gaia models have shown success in accordance with scientific method. Or show how “hiding the decline” is in accordance with scientific method.

Theo Goodwin
August 13, 2011 5:30 pm

Rational Debate says:
August 13, 2011 at 3:29 pm
Thank You! I enjoy your posts.

John B
August 13, 2011 5:54 pm

Smokey says:
August 13, 2011 at 5:23 pm
Of course. John B’s best argument to date is: “What a loser!” That’s generally how someone responds when they lack a credible argument.☺
——-
Smokey, you do realise that was a bit of sarcasm aimed at Chris Colose, don’t you? I wasn’t calling you a loser.
Actually, my best argument against you is that you post out of context, cherry picked charts. Over and over again.

August 13, 2011 6:13 pm

John B says:
“Actually, my best argument against you is that you post out of context, cherry picked charts. Over and over again.”
If that is your best argument, it’s an extremely weak one. I post hundreds of different charts directly related to the subject being discussed, which contain many different time axes. If I was “cherry picking”, I would only use a particular starting date.
I also post many different peer reviewed citations, which show that your belief in catastrophic AGW is baseless and evidence-free. Come to think of it, I agree with your quote above. You give no examples of “cherry picking”, but simply throw a tantrum. That is your best argument! Hey, we agree.☺

R. Gates
August 13, 2011 6:59 pm

Liza Robinson said:
August 13, 2011 at 5:16 pm
R. Gates, I am sorry if I sound rude but you don’t know what you are talking about and I am tired of people like you trying to scare children. You’ve been doing so for over ten years. The kids are grown up now and can think for themselves btw. 😉
My husband is a scientist and an expert on the Milankovitch Cycles. The calcs aren’t “easy” because your data and timing looking at the past could be plus or minus thousands of years. As I mentioned above the data resolution makes it impossible to be so sure like you are. There is no precise notion of “where we are” in the Milankovitch Cycles or how long it takes from peak to trough. That’s BS. You and your calcs could be off by thousands of years and you are arguing about a few hundred years with a fraction of a degree of “average temp” difference compared to when again?
The scientists in the 1970s (who Time Magazine paid attention to and published) were worried about another ice age coming exactly because we don’t know where we are at in these cycles. That was me they were trying to scare back then.
Your graph shows C02 concentrations rising since 1600. Amazing that they can monitor things like that in the 1600s. 😉 1600 to 1850 was the Little Ice Age, yes. It was below normal cold for over 200 yrs over half of the globe. Life doesn’t like cold that much; it likes warm. CO2 = Life.
Cheers!
———
You apologize for insulting me and then insult me again by accusing me of scaring children?
But anyway, I certainly have grown accustomed to insults by being one of the few “warmists” who bother frequenting this site.
Certainly I am not an expert but I do have a reasonable grasp of the science behind global warming, but I do not consider myself an alarmist. If your husband is an expert on Milankovitch cycles it is very likely I’ve read his work. What is his name? Or was this just a bit of spin on your part?

KevinK
August 13, 2011 7:09 pm

netdr said;
“FACT:
CO2 traps heat; too bad but that has been proven by Arrhenius around 1850.”
With all due respect Arrhenius HYPOTHESIZED that CO2 “traps heat”. He most decidedly did not PROVE it.
Netdr also wrote;
“A bottle filled with 100 % CO2 and another filled with air 380/1,00,000 Parts heat differently. if exposed to sunlight.”
Yes indeed this simplistic measurement of the thermal capacity of different materials proves nothing about the effect of those materials in a system as complex as the climate of the Earth. Unless we put all of the gases in the atmosphere into bottles, maybe then it will perform as defined.
Netdr also wrote;
“Denying this simple fact just makes the skeptical arguments look foolish.”
Misunderstanding this simple fact shows how shallow the understanding of how heat flows through a complex system really is among the climate science community.
Netdr also wrote;
“The CO2 slows the release of heat so of course it causes temperature to rise.”
Ah yes, the old, “so of course it causes….” clause. Well I would like to see the climate science community prove this “of course it causes the temperature to rise” statement, they have failed to do so thus far.
Netdr also wrote;
“It is like pulling on an extra blanket when you are in bed. It slows the release of heat.”
This is an incorrect analogy, you body is burning fuel and emitting heat like a true blackbody. The Earth (surface and atmosphere) is only absorbing and re-emitting energy, different situation entirely.
Netdr also wrote;
“Denying the obvious”
It is only obvious to those that just accept the “Argument From Authority” position of the climate science community.
The effect of increases in CO2 in the atmosphere is to change the response time of the gases in the atmosphere. This change is so slight that we could probably never afford to measure it. No “Higher Equilibrium Temperature” results.
Cheers, Kevin.

August 13, 2011 7:15 pm

R Gates,
I looked at your scary chart showing the CO2 hockey stick. It doesn’t seem to be affecting temperature. And it’s nothing compared with CO2 levels over the past half billion years.
Notify us when we should start to panic: click

u.k.(us)
August 13, 2011 7:18 pm

Chris Colose says:
August 13, 2011 at 2:18 pm
=====
Chris, you seem to be missing the point.
You can wrap yourself in the cloak of your studies.
The rest of us are concerned that, research has been driven by funding to deliver results which favor the current political agenda.
It’s not personal, it’s becoming a matter of survival.

David Falkner
August 13, 2011 7:24 pm

R. Gates says:
August 13, 2011 at 6:24 am
Steep drop soon? According to whom? I would suggest you ask for an explanation from those predicting this. Out of the multiple forcings affecting climate, to suggest a “steep drop soon” would mean they are expecting some serious volcanic activity or perhaps all out nuclear war.
The cycle I am speaking of is the clearly visible cycle in the Vostok proxies.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Co2-temperature-plot.svg
Please explain this cycle using CO2. Remember, there is an 800(ish) year lag period where you need a mechanism that causes warming all on its own. After you introduce this mechanism, you also have to explain why this mechanism is not responsible for sustaining the temperature while CO2 is. I’ve never seen convincing work on this. My ‘soon’ is relative to the time scale of this graph of course. I do apologize for not making that more clear in my original post.

Caleb
August 13, 2011 7:28 pm

RE: John H says:
August 13, 2011 at 12:33 am
“. ……You are making big bucks pontificating on a subject you obviously know nothing about.”
Ze pot calling ze kettle black? You obviously know nothing about Joe, and his ability to beat the socks off GISS. Or how about the El Nino the CFS was cranking out for this month, back in the early spring? How’s that working out for you? Now, who was it who said it wasn’t going to happen? Come on, spit it out. Confess. Confess. It was Joe, wasn’t it?
Perhaps it is ze pot calling ze stainless steel back, eh?
I want the bigs bucks we spent on those computers back. Sent a fraction to Joe. He gets better results.

August 13, 2011 7:33 pm

David Falkner,
This chart also shows that CO2 follows temperature. We’re 800 ±200 years after the MWP, so the MWP-caused CO2 outgassing is added to human CO2 emissions. But the fact remains that CO2 isn’t causing the predicted warming, so its effect must be much smaller than claimed.

Gofigure
August 13, 2011 7:38 pm

Numerous and various types of measurements drawn from the distant past, of the correlation between temperature and CO2 variations strongly indicate that the temperature variations occur 800+ years BEFORE the very similar CO2 variations. (The only explanation for this is the carbon cycle. Oceans, being much denser than the atmosphere, warm and cool much more slowly than the atmosphere. Warmer oceans outgas CO2, cooler oceans absorb CO2. )
In the more recent past our planet’s temperature began increasing in the late 1600s, as the little ice age subsided. That’s some 200+ years before CO2 began increasing. Since the industrial revolution CO2 has been steadily (but quite slowly) increasing but temperature increase stalled on several occasions, the more recent being from the 1940s to the 1970s, and again beginning about 1998 until now. So there appears to be neither a long term or short term correlation between CO2 and temperature. (Neither has any “hot spot” been found in the troposphere – a necessary,although not sufficient, condition for even a little credibility for the many computer models designed to prove AGW.)
We know that mankind can influence local temperatures. That phenomena – the “urban heat island” effect (UHI), is well known, but more distant rural areas surrounding each of those urban areas show no impact. Further urban areas make up a very small percentage of the earth’s surface area. (Water covers 70%, then there’s the Arctic, Antarctic, jungles, deserts, mountain ranges, plus many other uninhabited, or very low populated areas).
Finally we have considerable evidence that the Medieval Warming Period was as warm, likely warmer, than the current (now stalled out) warming period. The website co2science.org has references to all of these numerous peer-reviewed studies, almost 1000 different researchers representing and working in some 40+ different countries, with new confirming studies continuing to arrive. The MWP was clearly a global rather than a regional event. Going back a bit further in this interglacial period there is growing evidence of some earlier periods which were possibly even warmer than the MWP. We also know that CO2 was much higher in the more distant past, including during at least a couple of ice ages, as well as going into one ice age. (No likely tipping point in sight.)
How can any scientist proposing (significant) AGW maintain their belief in the face of this preponderance of evidence, particularly when they cannot offer any evidence to back their own position?
Then there is the political side of this issue. For starters, who would expect the IPCC, a governmental panel established to look into climate change, to report back “sorry, it’s just mother nature at work’ ? And, does anyone doubt the UN’s aspirations to gain more power ? (Monckton has much to say about this.) The UN and its IPCC are both no more or less than groups with a predetermined job description guaranteed to provide the results they have delivered.

August 13, 2011 7:43 pm

“Are you suggesting that the last several century rise in CO2 is not due to the result of human burning of fossil fuels?”
Do you debate the facts that human-kind emits 3-5% of the CO2 into the air? If this is indeed the case, how can you attribute the entire rise in CO2 to humans? Is there emperical proof, or heck I would settle for anything that even begins to describe how this is possible.
Indeed, if you add up the numbers and assume that the natural world has gone neutral on emissions (which I find unlikely) you find that humans have emitted about 120% of the possible gain in CO2. Its simple math from the IPCC. However, what is not stated is that a good portion of that is prior to the 1950’s….and to boot when CO2 has a half-life of between 9-15 years in the atmosphere, heck you can not begin to attribute even 20% of the gain to humanity. So the correct question is : “What small part of the rise in CO2 is mankind responsible for?”
Its basic math. We just have not emitted enough to even begin to describe the rise. The only other possible explanation is that a decent part of the rise is also due to natural effects. You know, like the oceans giving out more CO2 and other animals of this planet perhaps giving out more? This has a much larger impact by proportion then we do at our paltry 3-5% effect.
Needless to say, humanity will have an impact on the planet. The job of true scientists is instead of making half-truth statements such as the one seen at the top is trying to clarify the question I asked at the end of my second paragraph.
After that question is answered and only after can we begin to explore the idea that CO2 is a driver of climate. Because politically, the game is all about how we as humans are responsible for every change in the climate no matter how small. The game is also about half-truths and other political game-manship that is just frankly outregous for anyone considering themselves to be an expert in science to begin.
Like I said, first find out what proportion of the rise in CO2 we as humankind are responsible for. Then we can begin to debate such issues as “feedback systems that head off the rails.” and even “the melting arctic, oh my gosh, its the end of the world!!!”
I don’t want guesses, I want empirical data. It shouldn’t be that hard with the hundreds of billions spend on climate research every year. And if you guys are not willing to do that for political reasons, then maybe its time to stop the gravy train all-together and just stop climate research until mankind has matured enough to become scientific once again about this subject. I think in say 60 years we might be able to monitor and analyze climate.

sceptical
August 13, 2011 7:49 pm

Joe Bastardi clearly said temperatures were not rising, CO2 levels continue to go up and that it was temperature changes driving CO2 levels. What Joe Bastardi says makes no sense unless he is wrong about the temperature record or he is wrong about CO2 levels being driven by temperature. I will make a prediction, atmospheric CO2 levels will continue to rise in the next 10 years, barring a major economic recession, no matter what temperatures do. I will further predict that atmospheric CO2 levels will be higher at the end of 2011 than at the end of 2010, despite 2010 being the hottest year on record (I doubt 2011 will match or exceed it). If Co2 levels are higher and 2011 is not as warm as 2010, I would hope Joe Bastardi would recant what he said on Fox and what he has written here.

Theo Goodwin
August 13, 2011 7:58 pm

Liza Robinson said:
August 13, 2011 at 5:16 pm
“R. Gates, I am sorry if I sound rude but you don’t know what you are talking about and I am tired of people like you trying to scare children. You’ve been doing so for over ten years.”
Warmista have committed and continue to commit serious moral error through their propaganda. One of those serious moral errors is scaring children.

August 13, 2011 8:07 pm

R. Gates,
My husband is an expert on the Milankovitch Cycles because he studied them and collected data in fieldwork. He also studied physics and climatology too to get his masters. He also has a “grasp” of the science “behind” global warming like you do; and he sees junk. You just told me today “we do know exactly where we are in the current Milankovitch cycle, as these astronomical calculations are relatively easy to figure out.”; I said that’s bs and now you admit you aren’t an expert and want to know who exactly is?
I am not supposed to insult you or get a little miffed about all that? LOL! Come on.

R. Gates
August 13, 2011 8:58 pm

David Falkner says:
August 13, 2011 at 7:24 pm
R. Gates says:
August 13, 2011 at 6:24 am
Steep drop soon? According to whom? I would suggest you ask for an explanation from those predicting this. Out of the multiple forcings affecting climate, to suggest a “steep drop soon” would mean they are expecting some serious volcanic activity or perhaps all out nuclear war.
The cycle I am speaking of is the clearly visible cycle in the Vostok proxies.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Co2-temperature-plot.svg
Please explain this cycle using CO2. Remember, there is an 800(ish) year lag period where you need a mechanism that causes warming all on its own. After you introduce this mechanism, you also have to explain why this mechanism is not responsible for sustaining the temperature while CO2 is. I’ve never seen convincing work on this. My ‘soon’ is relative to the time scale of this graph of course. I do apologize for not making that more clear in my original post.
_____
Don’t know if you’re seriously asking for an answer but just in case you, or someone else is actually wanting to understand how our modern rise in CO2 can be so much different than past rises, and how, during the past 800,000 years, the rise CO2 normally initially lags the rise in temperatures, the I can gladly supply that.
Let’s first go back to the main effect of the Milankovitch cycle, as that is truly where we have to begin in order to understand how two very important positive feedback effects interact with the initial warming of Milankovitch cycles. Most people are familiar with the first of these feedbacks, and that’s the outgassing of CO2 from the oceans as the oceans warm. So, yes indeed, warmer oceans do indeed cause the release of CO2, and that release, based on well known, and not controversial physics of the CO2 molecule does cause more warming, which of course, continues on this basic positive feedback loop. But there is also another feedback loop that get’s initiated during the warming phase of a Milankovitch cycle, and this is not as well known, and, while also involving CO2 to some extent, it also has other interesting dynamics. This feedback loop involves the ocean as well (not surprising, since the ocean is so much a part of the global climate). It involves the compound Dimethyl Sulfide or DMS which is one of the major precursors for aerosols and cloud condensation nuclei in the marine boundary layer over much of the remote ocean. This is an exciting and evolving area of climate research, and I would encourage everyone who unfamiliar with DMS and climate regulation to read up on it. There are several positive and negative feedbacks related to DMS, phytoplankton, clouds, and CO2, But in a nutshell, during the initial ocean warming from Milankovitch, a warmer and wetter world means less dust coming from the land, and less dust means less fertilization of the phytoplankton by the iron in the dust.
Remember,these phytoplankton are just like any other plant…they love CO2. Plus, these phytoplankton lead to the release of DMS that creates the cloud condensation nuclei…and of course, less clouds means more solar insolation for the oceans, and so a little Milankovitch forcing is once more magnified via a positive feedback loop involving dust, phytoplankton, DMS, CO2, and cloud formation.
So, this is why Milankovtich forcing begins the process of warming…it is the trigger if you would, and comes first the ice core records, before CO2 levels begin to rise. Also, it is why dust levels are higher in the ice core records during the colder periods (and iron levels as well, the fertilizer for the phytoplankton). During the colder periods of the Milankovitch cycle, the phytoplankton are getting lots of nice fertilizer from the dust coming from the more dryr land areas (remember, colder means drier in the climate). These phytoplankton are happily absorbing lots of CO2 from the atmosphere and thus, as things begin to cool off, phytoplankton get more active, and CO2 levels start to fall.
Though there are a few more added feedbacks to this process (negative ones), this in general, is how the Milankovitch cycle is the master trigger which is then magnified through various feedbacks, all of which involve, to one degree or another, CO2, which becomes a sort of master thermostat that is “turned on” by the Milankovitch trigger. And it has gone on this way for hundreds of thousands, and even millions of years…until of course, something broke this natural Milankovitch-CO2 relationship…and that of course, was the release of billions of tons of CO2, not from the oceans this time, but from the land, through the burning of fossil fuels by humans. The key question is of course…how sensitive is the climate to the forcing from this additional, non-Milankovitch (i.e. anthropogenic) triggered release of CO2?

R. Gates
August 13, 2011 9:10 pm

Liza Robinson says:
August 13, 2011 at 8:07 pm
R. Gates,
My husband is an expert on the Milankovitch Cycles because he studied them and collected data in fieldwork. He also studied physics and climatology too to get his masters. He also has a “grasp” of the science “behind” global warming like you do; and he sees junk. You just told me today “we do know exactly where we are in the current Milankovitch cycle, as these astronomical calculations are relatively easy to figure out.”; I said that’s bs and now you admit you aren’t an expert and want to know who exactly is?
I am not supposed to insult you or get a little miffed about all that? LOL! Come on.
____
Sounds like your husband may be knowledgeable about Milankovtich, but would hardly qualify as an “expert”. And yes, we do know where we are in the three parameters of the Milankovitch cycle (eccentricity, axial tilt, and precession), and in general we know that, while we’ve passed the Holocene Climate Optimum, in which the planet received the maximum solar insolation during this particular interglacial, we can’t say precise when the next glacial period will begin, but based on eccentricity, axial tilt, and precession, it appears that the next glacial period isn’t due for many tens of thousands of years (despite what some skeptics might have you believe). So when I say we don’t know exactly when, we know it is many tens of thousands of years away.

sceptical
August 13, 2011 9:14 pm

benfrommo, perhaps you could give empirical proof of the hundreds of billions spent on climate research each year. Could you also give empirical proof that CO2 in the atmosphere has a half life of between 9 to 15 years?

R. Gates
August 13, 2011 9:17 pm

benfrommo says:
August 13, 2011 at 7:43 pm
“Are you suggesting that the last several century rise in CO2 is not due to the result of human burning of fossil fuels?”
____
More to the point, is a question that someone else had asked earlier. Where would global CO2 levels be right now if humans had gone extinct say, before the current interglacial period even begin? You can very reasonably and safely say they be somewhere around 280 ppm or lower, but not higher. You can quibble and equivocate this forever, but it won’t change what the ice core data have clearly shown to have occurred through the ups and downs of at least 800,000 years of Milankovitch cycles. I’ll trust the ice-core data, until someone proves to me how both Antarctic and Greenland Ice Cores could give essentially the same result and would be contaminated in the same way.

R. Gates
August 13, 2011 9:25 pm

sceptical says:
August 13, 2011 at 7:49 pm
Joe Bastardi clearly said temperatures were not rising, CO2 levels continue to go up and that it was temperature changes driving CO2 levels. What Joe Bastardi says makes no sense unless he is wrong about the temperature record or he is wrong about CO2 levels being driven by temperature.
____
What Joe (and others) are saying about temperatures and CO2 makes sense only in a world without humans, but makes no sense in a climate in which the long-term relationship between Milankovitch forcing and CO2 has been broken by human activities.

August 13, 2011 9:27 pm

R Gates says:
“Where would global CO2 levels be right now if humans had gone extinct say, before the current interglacial period even begin? You can very reasonably and safely say they be somewhere around 280 ppm or lower, but not higher.”
BZZ-Z-Z-Z-ZT. Wrong!
But thanx for playing, and Vanna has some lovely parting gifts for you on your way out.
We are currently 800 ±200 years after the MWP, therefore some of the increased CO2 is due to ocean outgassing. You have no credible answer as to where global CO2 levels would otherwise be one way or another. None. You’re just outgassing baseless speculation – your hallmark.

August 13, 2011 10:16 pm

Aqui no Brasil, o gov sege a ONU-IPCC mas outros cientistas são contra, e tem seus argumentos fudamentados. A politica do petroleo é forte assim como a religiosa. Como parar a economia? Ou melhor a solução é encontrar novas tecnologias para o fim do óleo. Boa sorte povo.

tommy
August 13, 2011 10:43 pm

@R. Gates
Why exactly are we even discussing who is responsible for increase in co2 anyways?
I thought the important question was if this increase in co2 significantly affects global temperatures, which is something that isn’t the case according to real data.

Richard S Courtney
August 14, 2011 12:09 am

R Gates:
At August 13, 2011 at 6:59 pm you say:
“Certainly I am not an expert but I do have a reasonable grasp of the science behind global warming, but I do not consider myself an alarmist.”
OK, that depends on the meaning of “reasonable grasp”.
You certainly do have as good a “grasp of the science behind global warming” as, for example, Chris Colose, and you are less rude and less arrogant than him.
But you have a profound ignorance of climate, what changes climate and what stabilises climate. Everybody has that ignorance which – hopefully – science will dispel in future.
The problem is that some people, including you and Colose, have been duped into thinking there are mystical gurus who do not have that ignorance and whose assertions should be believed.
Colose is young, he lacks any real world experience (he has never left school) and has an extreme form of the arrogance of youth, but you do not have those excuses for your actions.
Learn from the example of Joe Bastardi: look at the evidence instead of believing your gurus.
Richard

Slioch
August 14, 2011 12:46 am

R Gates is correct to state that, in the absence of humans, atmospheric CO2 concentration would now be no higher than 280ppmv.
This can be shown by the following considerations:
1. the graphs of temperature and atmospheric CO2 during the last several thousand years show that, prior to large scale human influence (c.1750)
a) temperatures had been generally very slowly declining (at a rate of about 0.2C per millennium) since the Holocene Thermal Maximum, see:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/ca/Holocene_Temperature_Variations.png
This slow overall decline in temperature can be accounted for by a slow decline in solar insolation related to the Milankovitch cycles.
b) CO2 levels had changed very little in previous millennia, remaining around the 280ppmv, see, for the last millennium:
http://tamino.files.wordpress.com/2011/08/co2.jpg?w=500&h=325
It is also possible that human actions associated with forest clearance and rice cultivation over the last few millennia had increased CO2 levels by a few tens of ppmv above what they otherwise would have been, as argued, for example, by Ruddiman:
http://stephenschneider.stanford.edu/Publications/PDF_Papers/Ruddiman2003.pdf
This evidence suggests that CO2 levels would now be about 240ppmv if humans had not existed.
2. The the current very rapid rise in atmospheric CO2 is entirely caused by human activity (primarily fossil fuel burning but also land use change and agriculture) is shown, inter alia, by the following considerations:
a) The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere increased by 640 billion tons between 1850 and 2000.
Human beings emitted 1620 billion tons to the atmosphere during the same time period, more than twice the increase in atmospheric CO2.
The difference, about 1000 billion tons of CO2, has been absorbed by oceans and terrestrial vegetation and soils.
Thus
i) Human emissions are more than able to account for the rise in atmospheric CO2 (since human emissions were more than twice the increase in CO2 in the atmosphere).
ii) The oceans have been and continue to be a sink of CO2, since that is where much of the CO2 has “disappeared” to. This is independently confirmed by the decrease in oceanic pH.
b) secondly, atmospheric CO2 is now increasing at a rate over SIXTY times faster than ever occurred naturally during the last 800,000 years for which detailed evidence exists. This evidence (from ice cores) shows that CO2 never increased (during transitions from glacial to interglacial conditions) at more than 30ppmv in 1000 years. They have now increased by that amount since 1996, about 15 years.
c) thirdly, evidence from the ice cores also shows that the rate of change of atmospheric CO2 with temperature is about 10ppmv/deg.C , see:
Frank et al (2010) Ensemble reconstruction constraints on the global carbon cycle sensitivity to climate. Nature 463, 527-530.
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v463/n7280/abs/nature08769.html
Thus, the greatest rise in atmospheric CO2 that could be expected from the rise in global temperatures since the LIA, (or indeed from the MWP) would be about 10ppmv, a small frction of the observed rise of over 110ppmv since 1750.
In Summary:
The increase in atmospheric CO2 in recent centuries is entirely caused by human activities. In the absence of humans, evidence suggests that current levels would be below 280ppmv, and perhaps as low as 240ppmv.

Frank White
August 14, 2011 1:36 am

I agree that feedback has been miscalculated. I believe that feedback is more likely to be negative rather than positive. However the statements presented as premises here do not seem to me to be founded in physical science. First, scientists are not saying that CO2 adds energy to the environment. What they are saying is that some energy that would be reflected back into space cannot be reflected back because the wavelength changes upon contact. Consequently, while the window is more or less clear for incoming energy, CO2 acts like a curtain for reflected energy and the thicker the curtain the more energy is retained and not reflected back into space.
Second, Le Chatelier’s principle is merely an empirical statement describing systems in equlibrium that are nudged out of equilibrium. Most systems return to equilibrium because of negative feedback. But this is not true of all systems–a nuclear pile is an example of a system than can runaway because of positive feedback. The basic argument is whether or not the climate system is regulated by negative feedback or can runaway by positive feedback.
In my opinion, the unpublished paper by Michael Beenstock and Yaniv Reingewertz (Polynomial Cointegration Tests of the Anthropogenic Theory of Global Warming) is consistent with a system with accelerating production of CO2 and negative feedback. As economic development slows worldwide the rate of CO2 production will decline sufficiently for negative feedback to be more readily observed. (http://economics.huji.ac.il/facultye/beenstock/Nature_Paper091209.pdf)

August 14, 2011 2:53 am

P Wilson says
However, the laws of thermodynamics enter into this equation. Co2 intercepts radiation at 15 microns – which is the equivalent of minus 36C – the sort of temperatures at the poles.
Henry@P Wilson
I’d like to query that. Where do you get that relationship from, that shows wavelength against K?
For example, our bodies are emitting at 36- 37 degrees C which is picked up by infra red camera’s.
I think the longer the wavelength the higher the temp.? Something is wrong somewhere in your idea of the minus …..it should be plus (at sea level)

August 14, 2011 3:40 am

Liza Robinson says:
August 13, 2011 at 9:07 am
“The earth is technically still in an Ice Age. Ice ages can possibly experience warmer and cooler periods; like the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age. We don’t know exactly where we are in the Milankovitch Cycles; because no scientist on this planet knows exactly how long it takes from peak (really warm) to trough (really cold) because the data resolution is not clear going back in time so we cannot “see” or “know” such small time frames like “now” in the geologic record.”
Liza, the data you mention may look a little bit confuse, but I think there are geometries to be recognize, which can improve the understanding of the spectra of Ice ages; the big ones and the Little Ice Ages. One of the geometries is suggested by R. Ehrlich as resonant modes of diffusion waves in the sun, and another geometry can by recognized from the synodic pattern from known celestial objects. A simple Fast Fourier Transformation of the Vostok data for 1000 ky shows clear frequencies of different power, which correlate with the Ehrlich modes, if one take a diffusion time td of photons until they come from the inner part to the surface region of the sun, of about 190 ky. Because the character of the modes is a saw tooth function it can easy be simulated on a greater time scale. Just as this simulation a pattern can be simulated out of the geometries of the celestial objects, showing a pattern superimposed to the Ehrlich modes, which fit the Little Ice Age and all other little ice ages in the last 5000 years, as it can be simulated back and forward in time from NASA ephemeris. Reconstructed temperatures in the alps by G. Patzelt for some ky BP fit also with synodic pattern from celestial objects.
The functions of the Milankovitch Cycles do not show saw tooth character in the time range of 1000 ky, and because of this, I think that the M. cycles have no direct significance for the terrestrial climate. I agree with that it is unknown when exactly a major peak will happen, but because the global temperatures are not much lower than ~20 ky ago, it can take some 100 ky to the next big ice age valley.
However, narrowing of the field of view on CO₂ and/or some decades of measurement limits the necessary scientific view. Unfortunately sensitive ideas which require more than one discipline are superimposed by discussions about national orthography.
V.

August 14, 2011 3:52 am

Slioch says:
“In Summary:
The increase in atmospheric CO2 in recent centuries is entirely caused by human activities. In the absence of humans, evidence suggests that current levels would be below 280ppmv, and perhaps as low as 240ppmv.”
And that would be very bad news for the biosphere.

August 14, 2011 4:16 am

Slioch says: In Summary:
The increase in atmospheric CO2 in recent centuries is entirely caused by human activities. In the absence of humans, evidence suggests that current levels would be below 280ppmv, and perhaps as low as 240ppmv.
Slioch, what is your point?
The paper you quote must be very old, because it has long been superseded by this one:
http://www.letterdash.com/HenryP/henrys-pool-table-on-global-warming
which shows that there is no warming caused by an increase in GHG’s
I suggest you read this
http://www.letterdash.com/HenryP/more-carbon-dioxide-is-ok-ok
which, if you can follow the ssientific reasoning,
would make you understand that more carbon dioxide is better for the environment.

August 14, 2011 4:30 am

Volker Doormann says:
August 14, 2011 at 3:40 am
[…]
Sorry for three faulty graph links in my above post:
http://volker-doormann.org/images/solar_fig_4.jpg
http://volker-doormann.org/images/solar_fig_3.gif
http://volker-doormann.org/images/gl_patzelt_ghi4.jpg
V.

John B
August 14, 2011 5:05 am

@HenryP, Smokey
Slioch was answering a specific question, “what would CO2 concentration be if humans had gone extinct?” Nothing to do with whether the answer would be good or bad for the biosphere or the environment. Try to stay on topic, guys.
CO2 has been in the range 180-300ppm for the last 800K years. No evidence to suggest it would have moved out of that range over the last couple of centuries other than as a result of human-induced CO2 emissions. Irrespective of whether that is good, bad or indifferent.

Blade
August 14, 2011 5:21 am

I asked Gates this question … “If humans had gone extinct 20 kya (or anytime really), what would be the CO2 ppm today?”

R. Gates [August 13, 2011 at 6:40 am] says:
“If humans had been wiped out by the massive volcanic eruption of Toba 72,000 years ago, and weren’t around to burn fossil fuels over the past few centuries, then absolutely beyond a doubt CO2 levels would be lower today.”

R. Gates [August 13, 2011 at 7:23 am] says:
“Without human activity during the Holocene, CO2 levels would be 280 ppm or lower today.”

R. Gates [August 13, 2011 at 9:17 pm] says:
“You can very reasonably and safely say they be somewhere around 280 ppm or lower, but not higher. You can quibble and equivocate this forever, but it won’t change what the ice core data have clearly shown to have occurred through the ups and downs of at least 800,000 years of Milankovitch cycles. I’ll trust the ice-core data, until someone proves to me how both Antarctic and Greenland Ice Cores could give essentially the same result and would be contaminated in the same way.”

Assuming for the moment that *both* ice core historical CO2 records are accurate, and that current Mauna Loa CO2 counters are correct and calibrated to compare to those ice cores (an assumption I am not prepared to swallow yet). Your epic fail is easily quantified …
[1] Most obviously you are willing to assign 100% (not 99% or 50% or 5%) of the net difference of atmospheric CO2 on an Earth with human and lack of human existence. Every single ppm of CO2 we are counting comes from humans! You are in fact saying that a minimum of 110 ppm of CO2 today is only from humans! You’re saying that CO2 levels belong at a level barely above a minimum needed to sustain life. You’re saying that humans somehow dwarf the production of CO2 from volcanoes (including Yellowstone, Toba, Krakatoa, Tambora? really?), the enormous oceans, and other natural CO2 outputs! You really ought to consider the proposition that humans are only capable of adding a few percent of the grand total. But you won’t because your religion relies upon this.
[2] You never even considered the possibility that humans also have an effect on sinking CO2 and that the effect is likely very dramatic. How so? Humans do something else the other species don’t do, they spread agriculture. Plant trees, lots of them. Plant crops, lots of them. Plant grass, lots of it. Humans green all the places they inhabit, intentionally, (well, except for the polar regions since that would be prohibited by the greenies. Ironic?). Humans probably green many acres per person in net totals. There are reports that the USA is much greener and more forested now than it was 300 years ago. Humans also irrigate, in very large scale. If you can ponder this objectively, you might consider the possibility that if humans were not present on Earth today, the land would look dramatically different. Namely, there would likely be vast tracks of wasteland, dust-bowls, deserts that do not exist today, and thus a lot of CO2 would never have been sinked at all, eaten by plants. There are other things humans do as well, land and soil fertilizing, fire suppression, water diversion, animal management, etc. This parameter, human sinking of CO2 should not be ignored. But of course it will be, the AGW religion relies upon it.

Blade
August 14, 2011 5:28 am

R. Gates [August 13, 2011 at 9:10 pm] says:
“And yes, we do know where we are in the three parameters of the Milankovitch cycle (eccentricity, axial tilt, and precession), and in general we know that, while we’ve passed the Holocene Climate Optimum, in which the planet received the maximum solar insolation during this particular interglacial, we can’t say precise when the next glacial period will begin, but based on eccentricity, axial tilt, and precession, it appears that the next glacial period isn’t due for many tens of thousands of years (despite what some skeptics might have you believe). So when I say we don’t know exactly when, we know it is many tens of thousands of years away.”

There you go again. You voice a firm belief in an unproven fact, that the Holocene has tens of thousands of years left in it. No-one can possibly know, because the exact combination of Milankovitch parameters ending the previous interglacial are not known for sure (if the combination you suspect causing the last one to end had ever existed previous or since *without* causing warming, then the Null Hypothesis is met and your search must continue for the right combination of parameters).
Humans will have to come to grips with the fact that there probably are more astronomical parameters that are as yet unknown. We may be able to make some headway in this area if so much damn money wasn’t diverted to meaningless AGW research nonsense and alternative energy scams. What should be well funded is historical orbital research (a much better use of those supercomputers) and while we’re at it, impacts, NEOs and long distance hazards as well. No ridiculous theory is needed to justify these as there is a clearly visible record and history of the destruction that results from impacts.
A little more Kepler, Galileo and Milankovitch please, and a lot less Arrhenius, Erlich, and Gore. That is the problem in Science in a nutshell.

Blade
August 14, 2011 5:34 am

Robert Murphy [August 13, 2011 at 7:47 am] says:

Bastardi: “You and I cant run away from the truth. Global temps have leveled off. CO2 is rising.”

“If that is true, your contention that temperature is driving CO2 falls apart. Why has CO2 continued to steadily go up (accelerating even) if as you say temps have stayed flat for 15 years (they haven’t actually, but that’s your claim)? Do you even read what you write?”

sceptical [August 13, 2011 at 2:56 pm] says:
“If temperatures drive CO2 and temperatures have not risen in 15 years, why have CO2 levels continued to rise?”

sceptical [August 13, 2011 at 7:49 pm] says:
“Joe Bastardi clearly said temperatures were not rising, CO2 levels continue to go up and that it was temperature changes driving CO2 levels. What Joe Bastardi says makes no sense unless he is wrong about the temperature record or he is wrong about CO2 levels being driven by temperature.”

Time Lag! These points of view are stuck in some modern narcissistic paradigm that timeframes must fall conveniently in human lifetimes or within synthetic subsets such as calendars. Try to imagine for a second that planet Earth will chug along without regard to the arrogant perceptions of the little fleas on her back. Our perception of time is squashed by that of mother nature.
Ice ages can last millions of years (2.5 million and counting for our currrent Pleistocene), interglacials can last tens of thousands of years (12 thousand for our current Holocene). These two examples vastly dwarf the 800 years or so time lag that the available data seems to indicate from warming episode to atmospheric CO2 increase. That suspected 800 year time lag in turn dwarfs our puny little grasp of time.
What is interesting though is that the AGW cult has climbed into a box, one which Joe Bastardi has attempted to nail shut. This box is all about CO2 and its necessary *immediate* effects upon temperature according to their AGW Theory Hypothesis Supposition allegation. You see, he is calling you all out now: How can AGW work if it does not work? I would say that we don’t even need to wait the 20 years to show the AGW allegation is proved wrong (disproven by steadily increasing CO2 simultaneously with a cooling period). It was already stomped by the 1960’s to 1970’s and other previous cooling periods.

Slioch
August 14, 2011 5:53 am

HenryP August 14, 2011 at 4:16 am
asks,”Slioch, what is your point?”
I would have thought that was obvious. They have been several posts in this thread asking what would be the present atmospheric concentration of CO2 if humans had not existed. I continued that theme and answered that question.
The articles you post, from a Christian blogger, are not scientific papers, do not address the issue which I was answering and are replete with errors.

Slioch
August 14, 2011 5:54 am

HenryP August 14, 2011 at 4:16 am
asks,”Slioch, what is your point?”
I would have thought that was obvious. There have been several posts in this thread asking what would be the present atmospheric concentration of CO2 if humans had not existed. I continued that theme and answered that question.
The articles you post, from a Christian blogger, are not scientific papers, do not address the issue which I was answering and are replete with errors.

P Wilson
August 14, 2011 5:58 am

Henry@P Wilson
I’d like to query that. Where do you get that relationship from, that shows wavelength against K?
Reply:
Wien’s displacement law expresses the relationship between temperature and wavelength. The two factors are inversely proportional, so the shorter the wavelength, the higher the temperature.

August 14, 2011 7:31 am

Henry@Slioch, John B
The point is that as far as warming is concerned, the increase in CO2 does not do anything.
The paper that Slioch quotes does not tell me how the values were arrived at. It is probably looking at the problem from the wrong end, i.e. assuming that global warming is caused by the increase in GHG’s and then working your way back.
Why do my values never confirm what Slioch and the likes of him are claiming?
http://www.letterdash.com/HenryP/henrys-pool-table-on-global-warming
As far as the bisophere is concerned more CO2 is better as it promotes greenery.

Latitude
August 14, 2011 7:50 am

Why is it that the very same people that trust nothing about temperature measurements and temperature reconstructions……
……treat CO2 reconstructions like they are the holy grail
CO2 is a lot harder to reconstruct………….

Gofigure
August 14, 2011 7:50 am

to: benfrommo
If your query on the cause of increasing CO2 was directed at me, based on my earlier comment —-
While the current increasing levels of CO2 may have been brought on by the usual carbon cycle, I do indeed suspect that industrial activity is, in any event, also contributing to the increase in CO2 in the atmosphere. But, so what? The relevant issue remains unaddressed by the Warmistas — denial of satellite temperature readings, denial of the recent ocean cooling, and denial of the MWP and earlier warming periods during this interglacial which could not have possibly been brought on by man’s activities, and all this is compounded by the fact that there is NO (none, nada, zilch) evidence that CO2 has contributed in any measurable way to the planet’s recent increases in temperature. In fact, all the available data indicates that in the distant past the variations in the level of CO2 have been brought on by much earlier variations in temperature, no doubt, to the carbon cycle. More recently, since the industrial revolution, while CO2 has constantly trended upwards, there have been several sustained periods of cooling, or flat temperatures, the two most recent being from 1940s to 1970s and from 1998 to present. No short term correlation at all between CO2 level and the planet’s temperature.
In spite of Trenberth’s ludicrous position, the null hypothesis must remain: Global warming, as well as climate change, are natural events, and that must remain the case unless (credible) scientists can produce strong evidence to the contrary.
While, in the long run it’s a no-brainer to continue searching for ways to reduce our “footprint”, the slow increase in CO2 (2ppmv annually) is nowhere near the crisis point which the UN (and liberal politicians of every stripe) claim. (These folks never want to miss an opportunity to take advantage of a crisis — H.L.Mencken said it better.) The CO2 level has been much higher in the distant past, we know that plants love more of it, and submarine crews have done quite well in CO2 levels of 3000 to 5000 ppmv.)