For those in SE Texas hoping for some drough relief from Tropical Storm Don, so far early Saturday morning after landfall, a trace or scant rainfall is to be found. Don’s convection has distintigrated with only a weak-low level swirl evident on radar. Hopefully as daytime heating occurs on Saturday and Sunday, a thunderstorm can pop up.
The NCEP 4-km NAM/WRF simulated radar forecast shows the circulation progressing across Texas Rio Grande during the next 24-36 hours before merging with the North American monsoon. However, rainfall forecast for the next 2.5 days shows a lot of white nothing across most of the drought-stricken state.
TS Don on satellite:
Animate it here
Tracks shown below:
![[Image of probabilities of tropical storm force winds]](https://i0.wp.com/www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0411_PROB34_F120_sm2%2Bgif/203213.gif?resize=500%2C400)
Click Here for a Printer Friendly Graphic
WTNT34 KNHC 282033 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DON ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011 400 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2011 ...DON MOVING BRISKLY NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.9N 91.3W ABOUT 425 MI...690 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM E OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO SAN LUIS PASS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TEXAS COAST SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.3 WEST. DON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H. A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DON SHOULD APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE TEXAS COAST FRIDAY NIGHT OE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AFTER THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA BY LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL...MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES. RAINFALL...DON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES FROM THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST WESTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.
Yeah … a little tinkle over the heart of Texas.
Now if only there were a few more weak tropical storms headed their way over the coming weeks … they sure need the gods above to tinkle on below them.
Now, about the page layout here…
For those who like me find the bulletin text displayed in an inch wide non wrapping window that is virtually impossible to read, here’s what it says.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DON ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011
400 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2011
…DON MOVING BRISKLY NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH…
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…24.9N 91.3W
ABOUT 425 MI…690 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 395 MI…635 KM E OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH…26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB…29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO SAN LUIS PASS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* TEXAS COAST SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 400 PM CDT…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH…LONGITUDE 91.3 WEST. DON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH…26 KM/H. A GENERAL
NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF DON
SHOULD APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY…THEN MAKE
LANDFALL ALONG THE TEXAS COAST FRIDAY NIGHT OE EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH…75 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 36
HOURS…FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AFTER THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES…140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB…29.68 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA BY LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
STORM SURGE…A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL…MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
NEAR AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR
THE COAST…THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING
WAVES.
RAINFALL…DON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES FROM THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST WESTWARD INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS…WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES.
NEXT ADVISORY
———–
Ouch, something wrong with the formatting, I cannot read the text.
Roy
Yet another bit of evidence that hurricanes are getting stronger, and more frequent. And just in case you don’t think that 40mph is terrifying, go outside and try to throw a loaf of bread* at 40mph. That’s right: Katrina II is coming for you.
*QED
So much for the Texas drought.
I sure hope the folks up around Amarillo get some rain. That place was looking pretty bad when we went through a few weeks ago. Some of the cattle on the range looked like skin and bone.
Stark: Yeah global warming has made 40 mph a lot faster than it was as recently as the 1970s if this increase in the speed of 40 mph continue unabated then by the year 2100 40 mph will be really fast.
They called it a cyclone……….
…..because cyclone sounds so much scarier than squall line……………
( I know, technically they are correct, it’s all still BS anyway)
@Stark Dickflüssig
😀 Made my day!
Eh….I needed new wiper blades for the car anyway.
I hope it comes as far inland as southern New Mexico. We need a litlle tinkle also.
crosspatch says:
July 28, 2011 at 5:08 pm
I sure hope the folks up around Amarillo get some rain. That place was looking pretty bad when we went through a few weeks ago. Some of the cattle on the range looked like skin and bone.
And on the flipside here in southeast MN where I live I’ve recorded over 10″ in the past 22 days! Lush as can be. Weather can be so queer that way (/snide)
Oh puhleease…!!!!
Due to the lack of hurricanes, we are now tracking tropical (gasp) storms!!!
Tom T says:
July 28, 2011 at 5:09 pm
Stark: Yeah global warming has made 40 mph a lot faster than it was as recently as the 1970s if this increase in the speed of 40 mph continue unabated then by the year 2100 40 mph will be really fast.
I believe it is call ‘inflation’. Weather and climate inflation is present all around us. Just look at the temperature record over time (after it has been corrected by UAE/CRU).
It’s coming right at us! (Dives out window)
And while I hope this storm brings some much needed rain to a parched Texas, I would only mention that while cattle there are dying from lack of water and vegetation, we up yonder in SW BC have had calves dying from overnight exposure to cold — in July! Maybe we could snag a whiff of that warm, dry weather and we’ll send some rain back in return?
The latest recon has the central pressure dropping 10 millibars in the last couple of hours.
Rapid intensification can be a result of relaxed shear, unstable (humid) air or increased ocean heat content. Whether or not Don makes it to a hurricane, any TC should be monitored as even Katrina was just a tropical storm and a cat 1 when it first crossed Florida before ramping up in the Gulf.
Same here; layout issue with the main article mods … (running a Dell PC w/WinXp SP3 and NOT using: IE, FireFox or Chrome but rather Opera as the browser)
.
Texas, and most of the southeast, need some gentle tropical storms to dump water.
TrueNorthist says:
July 28, 2011 at 6:50 pm
It’s coming right at us! (Dives out window)
Was that with or without a Wilhelm scream?
^ had it in my forecast for today or tomorrow for 42 months now, still not surprised they named it already.
Go Don go! I really hope it gets past San Antone.
The panhandle really needs rain.
Rain to southern Texas, my friends there will be pleased.
I was hoping for the northern path, but alas the mid-level ridge. We truly need 2-3, some big ol’ wet, slow moving storms to end this bloody drought.
Joe called it some months ago – Gulf Coast-centric storms, early on in the season if memory serves. It sure seems like its ending up as he called it…..
John Marshall says:
July 29, 2011 at 2:02 am
“Rain to southern Texas, my friends there will be pleased.”
Yes! I was going to comment that Don is GOOD! It’s bringing rain where it’s desperately needed in Texas.
LearDog says:
July 29, 2011 at 4:08 am
========================
You may have to wait for the Jet Stream. Maybe it will split or take an outright southern course. All the signs are there for an early climatic Autumn so its really a matter of the placement of the Jet.