Weather Post by Dr. Ryan Maue
The title is a bit facetious since Cindy is a marginal tropical storm (~35 knots) and will not last more than a day as a tropical entity. So, including tropical storms Arlene and Bret, we now have a total of 3-named systems for the 2011 record books.
Back at Climate Audit in 2009, Steve McIntyre, myself, and others had a long running conversation about the potential issue of recent “overcounting” tropical storms due to improved detection techniques, e.g. satellites which weren’t around a half-century ago. We coined these “fish” tropical storms that are short-lived and relatively weak as “Baby Whirls” or “Tiny Tims“. In recent research published in a couple journals, this improved detection has been found to exist. However, it is useful to look back the debate a couple years ago when the narrative revolved around the notion that Atlantic storm frequency had increased drastically due to global warming.
Here is the literature that seemed “to pass muster”:
Landsea,C.W., G.A. Vecchi, L. Bengtsson, and T. R. Knutson, 2010: Impact of Duration Thresholds on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Counts. Journal of Climate, Vol.23, 15 May 2010, pp.2508-2519 — Paper Link
Abstract:
Villarini, G., G.A. Vecchi, T.R. Knutson and J. A. Smith (2011): Is the Recorded Increase in Short Duration North Atlantic Tropical Storms Spurious?. J .Geophys. Res. doi:10.1029/2010JD015493. Paper Link
Abstract:
Thus, as the North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures warm and the summer rolls into fall, one has to wonder what sort of tropical storms will develop. More of these weak, short-lived variety or some long-lasting monster Cape Verdes?
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Meanwhile, in the North Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Dora has managed to find the only patch of warm water available for rapid intensification. The EPAC is chilly, but Dora should have a short window of opportunity to reach strong Category 4 or even 5 status before it drifts towards Southern California.
Dora is good for injecting moisture into the USA SW!
Thanks, Ryan, for your usual primo take on the science of storms. Certainly since the ACE index has to be considered as a better metric of “heat-transfer” out of the tropics, can you provide some enlightenment relative to how this compares to numbers of named storms and total cyclonic activity?
Much appreciated.
While I am being inquisitive, perhaps you could help me out on this one: When I look at the cyclone track model ensembles, they almost never agree with the “climatology” track that is also shown. Now, since I would expect the historical record to have some relevance, I understand that current conditions have a greater influence than past ones. Is this an indication that conditions have changed or that they are just constantly changing?
Thanks.
I could be wrong, But I think “La Nada” is not quite as active as as La Nina, but more than El Nino. With current relatively warm Atlantic, this is a recipe for an active, although not necessarily hyperactive season, I think. What this means in terms of storm strengths and how many will make landfall is pretty difficult to say. Last season had plenty of storms, including some strong ones, but every one of them missed. “Landfall probability” seasonal forecasts don’t seem to be that successful as far as I can tell. And what storms actually hit is what matters for most of us.
Ryan Maue asks “as the North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures warm and the summer rolls into fall, one has to wonder what sort of tropical storms will develop. More of these weak, short-lived variety or some long-lasting monster Cape Verdes?”
Looks like we can expect more strong Atlantic storms: http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2011/june2011/jun2011.pdf
Given that we are now into a period of global cooling, there may also be more strong storms over the next decade or two. There’s a chart in the above link on page 48 comparing storm landfalls with an earlier period. There is a similar chart in their 2008 forecast http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2008/aug2008/aug2008.pdf on page 34, which suggests that landfall Atlantic storms tend to increase during global cooling.
Umm, you’re the expert, you tell us!
One of the most impressive things about this positive AMO cycle of above normal hurricanes (other than using greek letters in 2005), is the dearth of hurricanes reaching New England. In the last active period we had the Hurricane of 1938 (try not to schedule a hurricane right after ground-soaking rains) and several in the 1950s.
The last decent hurricane in New England was Bob in 1990, see http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/hurricane/tropicalCycloneReview.shtml and that was before the AMO flipped in 1995. Post flip there was, excuse me, it isn’t worth remembering, ah, Floyd. There was also Bertha, but I wasn’t out in that one.
I tell people around here we’ve been very, very lucky during the last decade or two. It’s so boring here that the NWS’ Boston office hasn’t set up a 2011 season web page yet! Oh – here’s a cute site – http://maps.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes Only two tropical storms and four extratropical storms have passed within 100 nm of Boston since 2000, and they all missed New Hampshire.
Mid July, it’s time for the season to start perking up.
Given our recent nasty storms here in NE Oregon,I was talking to an old aviation buddy of mine.
1975 was a similar year, and there was a nasty hurricane Gretchen, I believe that came up the
pacific coast and caused all sorts of thunder rain and hail from it…
Dora could be quite a show…
35 knots………and it gets a name
If that’s the criteria, then we need to name every squall line…………
Ahhhhhh… the dreaded humuhumunukunukuapua’a tropical storm…
Ric Werme says:
July 20, 2011 at 4:03 pm
“Only two tropical storms and four extratropical storms have passed within 100 nm of Boston since 2000, and they all missed New Hampshire.”
As a resident of New Hampshire, that’s good to know!
(PS – I’m running a marathon at Hampton Beach, NH in early October – hopefully no New England hurricanes will hit us at that time!).
It has been my opinion that NOAA rushes to name storms to make it seem like there are more tropical cyclones due to global warming. While looking at http://spaghettimodels.com/ I happened to see what Jeff Masters wrote about the Bret, something about being unusual to have two letters used so early in the season. Of course, the good Dr. Masters left out the part about how 2 of the 3 “tropical storms” would never have been named 10 years ago. Perception is reality, especially when people’s attention spans is as short as it it today.
Thank you Dr. Maue for the regular ACE index updates. It cares not about how many letters are used.
Fish storms & baby sunspots. Both are over rated and leave the impression that there is more to them that what is reality.
RE: Ric Werme says:
July 20, 2011 at 4:03 pm
The “cycle” that included the ’38 hurricane and ended with Donna in ’60 was quite active in New England, but apparently the “cycle” before that was not. It was for that reason that there were no people alive in ’38 who had first hand experience of what a hurricane could do to New England. In fact many simple stated, as an iron-clad rule, “Hurricanes do not hit New England,” as the history of colonial hurricanes and the “Saxby Gale” had been forgotten
Hurricane Bertha had very little wind by the time it reached southern New Hampshire, but the rain was heavy, and much warmer than any rain one usually experiences in New England. My kids went out for walks, getting completely drenched and not minding it a bit.
Hurricane Bob, on the other hand, had enough wind left, even on the west side, to take down a large, old maple on Main Street. (To people’s surprise the center of the tree was filled with cement. Apparently that was a type of tree surgury, many years ago, but no one could recall who did it, or when. More forgotten history.)
In the ’38 hurricane it wasn’t just a tree on Main Street. It was every other tree, and in some cases it was every tree. I own a pamphlet put out (as a momento) by the city of Keene, NH, two weeks after the ’38 hurricane. It is loaded with photos, and the damage is unreal. It wasn’t just the trees; it was also the houses the trees fell on.
I hope New Hampshire goes without a major hurricane this “cycle.” The people of New England are completely unaware of the tree damage they’d face. Also they’ve built a lot up on the hills, where the winds were worse.
As an engineer used to make measurements on complex systems it really amazes me how someone with a scientific background can conclude that the observed phenomena changes its behavior when it is observed with a more sensitive instrument. The transition to a more sensitive system automatically generates an increase of the observable phenomena and therefore their count. Stating that the number of occurrences has increased because of external causes and not keeping into account the change of measurement system denotes as a minimum a lack of basic scientific culture, and probably a strong desire to jump to a predefined conclusion. It is like if some astronomers would state that starting from the 90s the number of observed stars and nebula has been increasing due to some mysterious event, deliberately ignoring the contribution of the Hubble telescope.
Thunderstorms with lightning in Asuncion, Paraguay 14C July 20 currently I think Svensmark was correct. Even if its cold the clouds are forming!
Meanwhile, the PNW remains well below normal.
But can you rate seafood shops with the famous ACE index?
Ryan I just want to let you know how much I enjoy your posts and appreciate your work!
In honor of Pluto, maybe ‘dwarf hurricane’ would be an appropriate name?
Every wisp of a vortex and low level circulation in the subtropics or even temperates gets a name these days.
Cry wolf anyone?
Sort of like the “excessive heat watch” that I am under right now.
Huh? Okay….so its gonna be hot.
The warning system in place in this country has become ultimate NANNY-STATE hyperbole material and just plain bull****.
Cindy…I don’t give a fat flying **** you are out there….and hell no….you don’t deserve to have a name!
Geez.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
Very much like sun spots count.
Spots that are being counted today were not seen by naked human eye, hence not counted.
Today the count is done for tiny specs and is inflated by hi tech equipment.
Just checked the Beaufort Scale. 35kts just creeps in to a force 8 Fresh Gale. A violent storm,(trop. storm equivalent?) kicks in from 48-55 kts. and a hurricane, Force 12, is over 64 kts.
There would appear to be significant inflation of storm criteria over the last few years, effectively divorcing older records from the satellite age and making it easier for unscientific use of statistics to support claims of increasing storms due, of course, to CAGW. Funny, that.
Just as Ryan predicted, Dora is now a Cat 4 storm with sustained winds of 140mph and a pressure of 942mb.
Will she become a Cat 5?
As always, great post from Dr Ryan the Weather Lion. One note, from an old timer ( I am) Fish storm was used back in the 70s at PSU, for any storm that would recurve. Then again Ryan wasnt even born then so how would he know? ( ha ha) It is interesting to note, that these developments are what I call “pattern recogntion) flare ups ( example Gaston 04, Diana, 1984) that develop off fronts when troughs lift out. I have never seen 2 come out of one front, and if it had pushed a bit further south into the gulf, we might have gotten 3 with the western impulse that was leading to all the heavy rain on the gulf coast. I would look for alot of action near the south atlantic coast this year and later in the year, it wont just go out fishing on its merry way, given pattern analogs.
I’m somewhat tired of the conspiracy talk in regards to hurricane naming. Show me where the NHC has used the increase in named storms to support Global Warming. If memory serves me right, the NHC center has been one of the few parts of NOAA that have strictly stuck to the science. I do remember Chris Landsea specifically withdrawing from AR4 and openly criticizing the IPCC.