We have a strong, but not unprecedented, heat wave gripping the central USA. NOAA made this video animation to show the breadth of it, which I converted to YouTube so everyone could view it:
NOAA’s description of this video:
A shroud of high pressure has taken a foot-hold over the U.S. from the Plains to the Northeast, and with it has brought temperatures well into the 90’s and 100’s for half of the country. This animation shows the predicted daily high temperatures from NOAA’s high resolution North American Model (NAM) from July 13-21, 2011.
NOAA writes: Dangerous heat grips Central U.S. Forecast to also affect East
Unhealthy levels of heat and humidity are encompassing much of central U.S. from the Southern Plains through the upper Midwest and this sultry heat will move east this week into the mid-Atlantic and Southeast, according to NOAA’s National Weather Service.
Temperatures in the 90s to near 100 degrees will feel as hot as 115 degrees or higher when factoring in the high humidity. Record high temperatures are likely to be set in some locations — adding to the more than 1000 records that have been set or tied so far this month.
“This heat is dangerous on many levels,” said Jack Hayes, director of the National Weather Service. “Temperatures and humidity levels are high, the heat will be prolonged, and very warm temperatures overnight won’t provide any respite. All of these factors make this an unhealthy situation, especially those in the upper Midwest who are not accustom to such heat.”
No quibbles there, a large blocking high like we saw last year in Russia is stubbornly fixated over the central USA. The media however, is on another story.
Don Penim writes in tips and notes:
Hot topic. Here we go again.
The Media is loving this heat wave. According to this CNN report :
“The National Weather Service notes that typically extreme heat is the biggest weather-related killer in the United States, taking about 115 lives each year.”
http://www.cnn.com/2011/US/07/18/heat.wave/index.html?hpt=hp_t2
Not according to the data, see:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/12/18/the-deadliest-us-natural-hazard-extreme-cold/
Also this:
In an article entitled, “The impact of global warming on health and mortality,” published in the Southern Medical Journal in 2004, W.R. Keatinge and G.C. Donaldson of Queen Mary’s School of Medicine and Dentistry at the University of London note:
“Cold-related deaths are far more numerous than heat-related deaths in the United States, Europe, and almost all countries outside the tropics, and almost all of them are due to common illnesses that are increased by cold.”
“From 1979 to 1997, extreme cold killed roughly twice as many Americans as heat waves, according to Indur Goklany of the U.S. Department of the Interior,” Singer and Avery write. “Cold spells, in other words, are twice as dangerous to our health as hot weather.”
Read more: http://wiki.answers.com/Q/Does_Hot_weather_or_cold_weather_cause_more_deaths#ixzz1SWXgP7qR
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Here’s Goklany’s report Deaths and Death Rates from Extreme Weather Events: 1900-2008 (PDF). This table pretty well sums it up:
UPDATE: some historical perspective
Dallas-Fort Worth heat wave of 1980 still seared into memories
11:50 PM CDT on Friday, August 6, 2010
By DAVID FLICK / The Dallas Morning News
Friday marked the seventh day in a row that temperatures in the Dallas area reached at least 100 degrees, but it was not what some people would call hot.
Those people – that is, people who remember Dallas during the summer of 1980 – can tell you about hot.
It was 30 years ago this week that a 42-day string of 100 degree days – the longest heat wave by far in the region’s history – was broken. For one day. More triple digits followed, and when autumn mercifully arrived, temperatures had hit the century mark 69 times.

It’s called summer.Happens every year
“Texas is a desert region which the locals seem to forget and water shortages due more to the great expansion in population than shortage of rain.”
I am a Texas native so feel qualified to respond to this calumny. Real Texans know the importance of water, perhaps b/c it’s not found here (Texas has only one natural lake, and it’s shared with Louisiana). The “locals” referred to above must be the (legal) immigrants.from the North mostly, who still find it novel that it’s so effing hot and dry in July. We hear them complain and wonder why they came. We remember the infamous summer of 1980, which put the lie to the then-current meme of global cooling. They should have been here for that one!
Good grief……we’re letting 24 hour news and the weather channel turn us all into a bunch of whiny weak children…………………
Here, just outside Phoenix, we’ve been below average; 94 yesterday and last week was only in the 90s. Normal for us this time of year is 105-106F
Just one minor quibble about a great map.
Here is Wisconsin, the weather maps show the various Wisconsin towns and their temperatures and other conditions, but when you cross the border with a neighboring state, boy, we are talking about a weather and news blackout. It is kind of like the DMZ between South and North Korea that is like civilization ends at the border with Upper Michigan.
For the map shown here, there is all manner of detail of the continental U.S., but cross south into Mexico or north into Canada, it is like there are no weather stations. Or worse yet, if a major tropical storm avoids a U.S. coastline but meanders off into Mexico, whew!, we missed that one!
OK, OK, maybe I am taking international PC and anti US chauvinism too far, but it would be a more complete picture to see how that heat pattern relates to conditions extending to the south and to the north.
Warmer than usual in Denver, CO. Cooler than usual in Las Vegas, NV. Temps usually hit 117 degrees or above in Las Vegas in summer.
How do people survive?
John Marshall says:
July 20, 2011 at 1:47 am
Take it from me, a former attorney for Dallas Water Utilities. Parts of Texas, particularly in the West and South (especially east and south of El Paso), are desert. That isn’t the case in most of the rest of Texas, especially North Texas which experienced higher than normals for rain in the spring, unlike places south of about Waco. Yes, it is true that Texas is a relatively arid region. But generally, lake and water levels in most of Texas have fluctuated because of individual rainfall trends and not so much from population levels. Per capita consumption of water is much lower in San Antonio, for example, than in Dallas, and San Antonio has been growing at more or less the same rate as Dallas has the past 15 years or so. So it is not necessarily population levels that have caused the problem. And Texans are much more aware of their limitations when it comes to water; we have one of the most comprehensive water planning and regulatory schemes in the United States.
I’ve lived in NW Louisiana and SE Texas my entire life. We always have to wonder when they start talking about heat waves and show people gasping at 95 deg. F in Chicago, New York, etc. I’m a bit young to remember the 1980 heat wave, but the later ones I remember quite well. I recall many days it reached over 105 in Shreveport and was working outdoors on a roof 32′ off the ground when it was reaching 120 on the roof. Guys were scalding hands and arms on the metal structures. Was it uncomfortable? Heck yes! Did we work in it? If we wanted a paycheck we did. It’s as much about adaptation as anything else. I concur that the elderly and infirm will have more difficulty adapting, but the young that sit inside playing X-Box, Wii, etc. for three months out of the summer in the A/C have no idea of the outdoor summer fun they are missing out on because their parents are scared that little Susie/Johnie just can’t make it in that heat…
Latitude says:
July 20, 2011 at 8:03 am
Good grief……we’re letting 24 hour news and the weather channel turn us all into a bunch of whiny weak children…………………
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Yep the only weather weirding I see is more akin to weather whining……apparently people believe it should be 70-80 degrees every day with light rain(only when we’re inside) mixed with sunshine when we’re outside.
I’m in the Texas Panhandle, on the short grass steppe or High Plains as it is often called. We’re located over 1000 m and have been “enjoying” the dome of high pressure since March with temperatures in the 100s. Wallace Stegner, the writer and historian of the US West, referred to this area as “a semi-desert with a desert heart” and this year is proving him correct. We’ve had a fire fatality but no heat deaths yet. As others have said, stay hydrated, check up on people and know your limits.
115 people per year?
I’ll wager that more people choke on salt-n-pepper sachets in McDonald’s every year.
And lets say 100 million US taxpayers/consumers are paying how much already? Is it 1,000, 5,000 or 10,000 dollars annually in tax and increased prices already to try and save these people? How much is that? A trillion dollars, annually, to save 100 people that were either gonna croak soon anyway or be classed as ‘Darwinian Failures’
Madness.
The pattern in the upper midwest has actually been progressive. Although there have been some warm days, it has passed quickly. In truth, only the SE quadrant of the country has had persistent warmth. The entire northern tier has experienced one mid latitude storm system after another. And meanwhile the West Coast is being robbed of a real summer. Climatic Autumn (granted, early Autumn but Autumn nonetheless) is already here on the West Coast. The Pacific High is prog’ed to all but break down next week.
PRD says:
July 20, 2011 at 8:54 am
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Versus 50 years ago there is far more obesity, and, an immense fraction of the masses who have either hormonal imbalances, drug addictions or both. All of these factors result in individuals who break a major sweat at 65 Deg F / 65%RH. It’s amazing, even here on the SF Peninsula many newbs and young folk are putting in AC. When I was a kid no one had AC, only people inland had it.
I didn’t live in TX in 1980 but my first full summer was 1998, which is generally regarded as the second worst summer in TX. That year, we had 29 consecutive days over 100, broken by a 99 degree day, and a total of 56 days over 100. We also had 14 consecutive days where the min temp was above 80 degrees. Finally, over a 91 day stretch, we received a total of .46 inches of rain.
This year is no exception, as we are in day 17 of +100 temps and a total of 23 overall. Forecasts show another 5 before it cools off to the upper 90’s. Long-range models finally indicate a bit of a change around the first part of Aug but we’ll see.
Run! Run for your lives!!!
“Global warming could create 150 million ‘climate refugees’ by 2050
Environmental Justice Foundation report says 10% of the global population is at risk of forced displacement due to climate change”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/03/global-warming-climate-refugees?INTCMP=ILCNETTXT3487
No… wait. Just walk. Running in this heat could put you ‘at risk.’
Yesterday The Weather Network claimed record hot Ts hit Winnipeg (home of winny the poo) reaching 36C. TWN typically tack on 2C – other sources report 349- still warm (93F). As a papar boy late 40s-early 50s I recall T reaching 100+ in mid summer almost every year. This kind of July heat has been a long time fixture from TX-NM-AZ to southern Saskatchewan-Manitoba. I remember a few 105s. Yes and in January -35-40 six months later. The hum-a-ditty index and wimp-chill factor hadn’t been invented yet. We just drank a little more lemonade and hot chocolate – yes I’m old enough to remember these antique beverages. ‘Course that was back when men were men and the women loved it. Oops political correctness’ll probably snip this out.
Jay says:
July 20, 2011 at 4:58 am
Perhaps the US should re-engineer its cities and communities to be well adapted for all weather events all the time…
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LOL – that’s why we use so much coal and oil
I wish we had some of that heat in Kamloops as the weather here has been the rainiest that I’ve ever seen it and only my raspberries seem to like the rain. Haven’t had any of my patients hospitalized with hyponatremia as is usually the case when we get our summer temperatures of 100+ degrees F (with low humidity it feels great).
While thinking about heat related illnesses today was wondering how much the “no salt” public health message is contributing. Someone who is out of condition physically tends to produce sweat with high Na content and that Na needs to be replaced. I’ve found many of my elderly patients who end up in hospital hyponatremic during the summer haven’t been using extra salt because they were told “salt is bad”. These hospitalized patients are all on diuretics which exacerbates their Na losses.
The other interesting factor in populations with European origins is that 4-5% of the population is heterozygous for the chloride channel mutation that causes cystic fibrosis in homozygotes. This mutation is associated with increased Na losses in sweat even with physical conditioning and such individuals have far higher salt requirements in the heat than those who don’t have this mutation. The salt requirements of affected football players working out in the summer in the SE US were up to 25 gm/day of salt.
So maybe we shouldn’t be blaming “climate change” but rather a clueless public health system that has irresponsible public messages such as avoiding salt. When I used to plant trees during the summer we were provided with salt tablets and I hate to think of what my Na losses were then as I’d drink about 2 gallons of water during a hot day and crave anything salty at night. Air conditioning is the best solution, but pricing electricity out of the range of what pensioners can afford is another way of increasing heat related mortality. Still, I’d rather have the heat than extreme cold.
One more thing – When it’s hot, people aren’t usually snowed in, unable to leave for a more comfortable environment. I can see how more people could die from the cold than from the heat. Of course, if the warmistas have their way and succeed in depriving the masses of the use of coal and oil, I predict more people will die from not only extreme cold and extreme heat, but also the inability to move elsewhere.
I think that’s the point of this whole climate hoax. There are just too many really powerful people who think there are just too many people. Personally, I don’t see how they could have achieved their level of prosperity without the existence and activity of all those extra, “unnecessary” folks.
Quit bragging about your heat will ‘ya! Here in the UK we just had the coolest June in over a decade and July is also following suit. August last year was the flattest since 1993 so i’m not holding out for much of an improvement this year seeing as August is usually sucks. We haven’t had a decent August since 2003. BBQ summer my arse!
Boris Gimbarzevsky says:
July 20, 2011 at 12:18 pm
I wish we had some of that heat in Kamloops as the weather here has been the rainiest that I’ve ever seen it and only my raspberries seem to like the rain.
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My Ollallaberrie crop is a complete disaster. Too little warmth too late. The bloom started late and continues. The berries that came in initially were OK however everything ripening since mid month is uneven, soft at the tips and unripe at the [stem]. Complete disaster!
Meanwhile, the MSM are doing their level worst to hype the Southern (and short term Mid Western) warmth. Shades of 1988 and 1993.
I second what Andrew (July 20, 2011 at 6:34 am) says.
For more perspective on why cold does not really cause more deaths than heat (despite what everyone seems to think), see these two articles:
http://www.masterresource.org/2011/07/overplaying-heat-underplaying-adaptation-part-i/
http://www.masterresource.org/2011/07/overplaying-heat-underplaying-adaptation-part-ii/
-Chip Knappenberger
One thing I don’t see mentioned is how few Americans die during heat waves compared to Europe and elsewhere. A big part of that, I think, is because most Americans have air conditioning at home, and almost all commercial and public buildings also have air conditioning.
The Dept of Energy Survey for 2005 stated that 84% of all Americans had air conditioning at home and 78.3% of poor people have air conditioning at home. I couldn’t find stats regarding Europe’s use, but the lack of air conditioning contributed to the deaths of 35,000 people, mainly in Germany, France, and Italy, during the 2003 heat wave.
Like most people in the US, I grew up without air conditioning. We used open windows and fans. Fortunately, with the humidity so low in Colorado, it wasn’t too much of a problem, if we needed to be cool, we went to the movies, to the store, or to the mountains. It also cools down nicely at night, usually in the low 60s.
We got a swamp cooler when I was pregnant with my second child, around 1990 and didn’t have air conditioning in a car until around then either. We used to joke about 2/60 air conditioning – 2 windows, 60 mph.
The new house we bought in 2000 has central air, I love it. Not only is summer comfortable, it helps immensely with my allergies.
It’s currently 90 here in the Denver area at 4:30pm, but the humidity is only 20%, quite tolerable.
We should be thankful that we live in a country with a standard of living high enough that we can enjoy such comforts as air conditioning. The report also said that our poor people have more living square footage than the average (not poor) European, a TV, a DVD player, a microwave, and cable service. Quite a clear picture of the difference between capitalism and socialism, a difference that I would like to see retained.
Prog’s for a week out are really depicting a break down of the Pacific High. It may make a slight come back around Tuesday. Nonetheless, it’s remarkable that the High is this weak, so early in the Summer.