I need your help for a short research project

Just put it on http://www.Digg.com

http://butnowyouknow.wordpress.com/those-who-fail-to-learn-from-history/climate-change-timeline/
Peter Walsh, Dublin, Ireland: I posted this on Bishop hill a few days ago.

Science 17 September 2004:
Vol. 305 no. 5691 p. 1693
DOI: 10.1126/science.305.5691.1693a
NEWS OF THE WEEK
PALEOCEANOGRAPHY
Signs of a Warm, Ice-Free Arctic
“..meters of mud cored should be a record of the last ice-free Arctic summers of millions of years ago, conditions that may return in the greenhouse world of 2100.”
Science 13 August 2004:
Vol. 305 no. 5686 p. 919
DOI: 10.1126/science.305.5686.919b
EDITORS’ CHOICE
CLIMATE SCIENCE
An Ice-Free Arctic?
“Their simulations predict that the Arctic will be almost free of sea ice during the summers toward the end of the this century (for another climate prediction for the late 21st century, see Meehl and Tebaldi, this issue, p. 994). — HJS”
Tellus A56, 328 (2004).
Science 16 March 2007:
Vol. 315 no. 5818 pp. 1533-1536
DOI: 10.1126/science.1139426
REVIEW
Perspectives on the Arctic’s Shrinking Sea-Ice Cover
“Rates of ice loss both for the past few decades and those projected through the 21st century nevertheless vary widely between individual models. Our analyses show that in the IPCC AR4 models driven with the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B emissions scenario (in which atmospheric CO2 reaches 720 parts per million by 2100), a near-complete or complete loss (to less than 1 × 106 km2) of September ice will occur anywhere from 2040 to well beyond the year 2100, depending on the model and the particular run for that model”
Science 18 June 2010:
Vol. 328 no. 5985 pp. 1523-1528
DOI: 10.1126/science.1189930
REVIEW
The Impact of Climate Change on the World’s Marine Ecosystems
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/328/5985/1523/DC1
“(D) The loss of summer sea ice by 2040 in the Arctic will have a strong impact on a range of dependent organisms, both above and below the ice.”

Dunno if it will help any, but heres my contribution.
I do recommend that if anyone has an account at LexisNexis that they might be able to do a more encompassing search.
“In 2006, the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) predicted that we might see an ice-free Arctic by the end of the century.
Now it seems that the panel’s prediction may come true much sooner than expected, perhaps within a decade. ”
“Watching the Arctic Melt Away” ANGUS HINES May 12, 2008
http://abcnews.go.com/International/Weather/story?id=4836998&page=1
“We could have an ice-free Arctic by the year 2070, by the year 2080. In the last few years those predictions have come way, way in towards the present and now we’re saying maybe 2030, maybe 2020.”
Program Transcript – Marian Wilkinson’s “The Tipping Point” DR TED SCAMBOS 04/08/2008
http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/content/2008/s2323805.htm
“Researchers fear sea levels could be rising much faster than first thought with some scientists predicting an ice-free Arctic by the summer of 2100. ”
“Rapidly Melting Glaciers Fuel Rising Sea Levels” Unnamed Reporter – Sept. 24, 2007
http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/TenWays/story?id=3642325
‘”There may well be an ice-free Arctic by the middle of the century,” Christopher Rapley, director of the British Antarctic Survey, told the seminar, accusing the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of underestimating the melt.’
“Islands emerge as Arctic ice shrinks to record low” Alister Doyle – Aug 20, 2007
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2007/08/20/uk-climate-ice-idUKL2069726720070820

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/12/071212-AP-arctic-melt.html
Arctic Sea Ice Gone in Summer Within Five Years?
Seth Borenstein in Washington
Associated Press
December 12, 2007
This week, after reviewing his own new data, NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally said: “At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions.”
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http://www.treehugger.com/files/2008/03/arctic-ice-cap-gone.php
TreeHugger:
Arctic Ice Cap Could be Gone by the Summer
by Jeremy Elton Jacquot, Los Angeles on 03. 2.08
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http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/07/13/994113/-Arctic-Ocean-ice:-gone-in-7-years
Wed Jul 13, 2011 at 04:35 AM PDT
Arctic Ocean ice: gone in 7 years
by Keith Pickering
I’ve added a quadratic fit to the data, and the curve hits zero in about 2018, just seven years from now. Given the uncertainty in the data, the actual zero point could be a few years either way from that projection – but probably not by much. …
Not only is the volume falling off a cliff (declining, and accelerating as it declines), but we’ve only got a few years left before we hit zero sea ice volume in the Arctic Ocean at the end of summer.
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http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/12/13/280501/-Arctic-Ice:-Going,-Going–Gone
Wed Dec 13, 2006 at 03:49 AM PST
Arctic Ice: Going, Going … Gone?
by DarkSyde for Daily Kos
Quoting:
ABC News — A team of scientists from the United States and Canada has found new evidence about the rapid melting of ice in the Arctic. Data presented at a meeting of the American Geophysical Union suggests all year-round ice could disappear by the year 2040. The scientists also believe recent research shows a tipping point which would trigger a rapid melting is fast approaching.
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http://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/2312253/Arctic-ice-gone-in-30-years
Arctic ice ‘gone in 30 years’
Last updated 09:20 03/04/2009
Arctic sea ice is melting so fast most of it could be gone in 30 years.
…
The new report by Muyin Wang of the Joint Institute for the Study of Atmosphere and Ocean and James E Overland of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, appears in Friday’s edition of the journal Geophysical Research Letters.
They expect the area covered by summer sea ice to decline from about 2.8 million square miles (7.25 million sq km) normally to 620,000 square miles within 30 years.
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http://stephenleahy.net/2008/12/30/arctic-ice-gone-2015-first-time-in-a-million-years/
Stephen Leahy, International Environmental Journalist
QUEBEC CITY, Canada, Dec 13 2008 (IPS)
Arctic Ice Gone By 2015 – First Time in One Million Years
[update Apr 29 2010: “When the sea ice melts, more heat is absorbed by the water. The warmer water then heats the atmosphere above it…this feedback system has warmed the atmosphere at a faster rate.” Confirms loss of sea ice is rapidly warming Arctic — Study in Nature yesterday. – SL]
————————

Dan Miller
August 18, 2009
Berkeley Cybersalon (video of presentation)
Melting Trends: Arctic Ice Completely Gone by 2020?
0:36 – The ice: “it’s going to be all gone in the next five or ten years.”
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/8005620/Arctic-ice-could-be-gone-by-2030.html
Saturday 16 July 2011
Arctic ice could be gone by 2030
Arctic sea ice melted over the summer to cover the third smallest area on record, US researchers have said, warning that global warming could leave the region ice free by September 2030.
Mark Serreze, director of the NSIDC, said…
Arctic ice was disappearing by 11 per cent per decade, he said.
“Our thinking is that by 2030 or so, if you went out to the Arctic on the first of September, you probably won’t see any ice at all. It will look like a blue ocean, we’re losing it that quickly,” he said.
————————
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/3318239/Arctic-ice-could-be-gone-in-five-years.html
Arctic ice ‘could be gone in five years’
By agencies
“The Arctic is screaming,” said Mark Serreze, senior scientist at the US government’s Snow and Ice Data Centre in Colorado.
————————
http://hot-topic.co.nz/feel-floes-gone-by-2016/
Feel floes (gone by 2016)
by Gareth on April 27, 2010
… the Arctic could be effectively ice-free in summer within ten years — possibly as soon as 2013.
————————
http://hot-topic.co.nz/five-years-threnody-for-arctic-sea-ice/
Five years (threnody for Arctic sea ice)
by Gareth on October 16, 2010
Bottom line: if the relationship between ice volume and extent evident in the NSIDC and PIOMAS data over the last 21 years continues in the near future, then the Arctic will be effectively ice-free in late summer sometime between 2015 and 2020
————————
http://www.countercurrents.org/lowe161009.htm
Most Arctic Sea Ice ‘Gone In Decade’
By Tom Lowe
16 October, 2009
The Independent
The Arctic Ocean will be an “open sea” almost entirely free from ice within a decade, the latest data released today indicates.
————————
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm
Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013’
By Jonathan Amos
Science reporter, BBC News, San Francisco
Professor Maslowski’s group, which includes co-workers at Nasa and the Institute of Oceanology, Polish Academy of Sciences (PAS), is well known for producing modelled dates that are in advance of other teams.
————————
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-13002706
New warning on Arctic sea ice melt
Richard Black By Richard Black Environment correspondent, BBC News
Scientists who predicted a few years ago that Arctic summers could be ice-free by 2013 now say summer sea ice will probably be gone in this decade.
The original prediction, made in 2007, gained Wieslaw Maslowski’s team a deal of criticism from some of their peers.
Now they are working with a new computer model – compiled partly in response to those criticisms – that produces a “best guess” date of 2016.
————————
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/outposts/2009/04/artic-sea-ice-may-be-gone-in-30-yearswhat-will-become-of-wildlife.html
Arctic sea ice gone in 30 years — what will become of wildlife?
We knew polar bears were in trouble, what with the Arctic ice they require for survival disappearing at an alarming rate. …
A report on the issue, by Muyin Wang of the Joint Institute for the Study of Atmosphere and Ocean and James E. Overland of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, will appear in Friday’s edition of the journal Geophysical Research Letters.
They expect the area covered by summer sea ice to decline from about 2.8 million square miles to 620,000 square miles within 30 years. That represents serious shrinkage, with frightening implications for wildlife and humans.
————————
http://www.reuters.com/article/2009/10/29/us-climate-canada-arctic-idUSTRE59S3LT20091029
Multiyear Arctic ice is effectively gone: expert
By David Ljunggren
OTTAWA | Thu Oct 29, 2009 12:01pm EDT
But David Barber, Canada’s Research Chair in Arctic System Science at the University of Manitoba, said the ice was melting at an extraordinarily fast rate.
“We are almost out of multiyear sea ice in the northern hemisphere,” he said in a presentation in Parliament.
————————
http://www.tourism-review.tv/natural-heritage-sites-videocategory12
Video: Catlin Arctic Survey – October 2009
“the North Pole will be an open sea during the summer months within twenty years.”
————————
http://moregrumbinescience.blogspot.com/2010/06/when-will-arctic-ice-be-gone.html
Thursday, June 3, 2010
When will Arctic ice be gone?
The short answer, before I give you all the qualifiers needed to make sense of it, is 2035, give or take 7 years.
————————
http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/environment/Perrenial_Sea_Ice.html
The Arctic Perennial Sea Ice Could Be Gone by End of the Century
10.23.03
————————
http://www.euronews.net/2009/10/15/arctic-ice-gone-in-20-years-says-leading-expert/
Arctic ice gone in 20 years says leading expert
15/10/09 19:12 CET
The Arctic Ocean will be ice-free in the summertime within 20 years, according to one of the world’s leading experts in the field. Professor Peter Wadham’s analysis was based on an extensive survey of polar ice.
————————
http://dsc.discovery.com/news/2007/10/08/walrus_pla.html
Melting Sea Ice Forcing Walruses Ashore
Dan Joling, Associated Press
Oct. 8, 2007
According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center at the University of Colorado at Boulder, September sea ice was 39 percent below the long-term average from 1979 to 2000. Sea ice cover is in a downward spiral and may have passed the point of no return, with a possible ice-free Arctic Ocean by summer 2030, senior scientist Mark Serreze said.
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http://drtimball.com/2011/rate-of-arctic-ice-melt-each-day-now-equals-the-size-of-west-virginia/
Rate of Arctic Ice Melt Each Day Now Equals the Size of West Virginia
by Dr. Tim Ball on June 8, 2011
————————
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=780
Polar ice cap gone by 2030?
Posted by: JeffMasters, 1:39 PM GMT on September 07, 2007
In an interview published yesterday in The Guardian Dr. Mark Serreze, and Arctic ice expert with the National Snow and Ice Data Center, said: “If you asked me a couple of years ago when the Arctic could lose all of its ice, then I would have said 2100, or 2070 maybe. But now I think that 2030 is a reasonable estimate.
————————
http://www.independent.co.uk/incoming/most-arctic-sea-ice-gone-in-decade-1803035.html
Most Arctic sea ice ‘gone in decade’
By Tom Lowe, Press Association
Thursday, 15 October 2009
The Arctic Ocean will be an “open sea” almost entirely free from ice within a decade, the latest data released today indicates. …
Peter Wadhams, Professor of Ocean Physics and Head of the Polar Physics Group, has spearheaded the team analysing the results.
He said: “The summer ice cover in the Arctic will completely vanish in 20 to 30 years time. There won’t be any sea ice there at all
“In much less time than that, the ice in summer will be shrinking back to this last bastion north of Greenland and Ellesmere Island, so within a decade we will see a largely ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer.
————————
http://www.aolnews.com/2009/12/14/polar-ice-cap-could-be-gone-in-5-years-gore-says/
Polar Ice Cap Could Be Gone in 5 Years, Gore Says
Dec 14, 2009 – 10:17 AM
Al Gore has told the U.N. climate conference that new data suggests the Arctic polar ice cap may disappear in the summertime as soon as five to seven years from now.\
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http://www.kidzworld.com/article/7238-polar-ice-caps-here-today-gone-tomorrow
Currently, the polar ice caps are shrinking, most likely as a result of global warming. So what does this mean? Fewer penguins? A smaller backyard for Santa? Unfortunately the impact is much bigger than that. The sea level has risen six to eight inches (15 to 20 cm) in the last 100 years, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Some studies suggest that sea levels could rise as much as 20 feet by end of the century. …
Polar Ice Caps – What Can You Do? …
Tell your parents what you know about global warming and the environment. It’s important that they know as much as you do so they can vote for politicians who care about the environment.
————————
http://www.thehungersite.com/clickToGive/ths/article/Melting-Trends-Arctic-Ice-Completely-Gone-by-2020133;jsessionid=7757620828170B4ACF690AFBBBC2B18E.ctg-c
Better World Blog
Melting Trends : Arctic Ice Completely Gone by 2020?
May 24, 2011 10:17:00 PM by a Citizen of the World
Video:
Dan Miller
August 18, 2009
Berkeley Cybersalon (video of presentation) Dan Miller
0:36 – The ice: “it’s going to be all gone in the next five or ten years.”
————————
http://www.cejournal.net/?p=1376
News & Perspective from the Center for Environmental Journalism
Gore: polar ice caps will melt completely “in just a few years”
posted on March 15, 2009,
Update, Sunday 3/15/09:
Evidently, Gore has misspoken about polar ice melting before. See this Youtube video in which he says the entire north polar ice cap may be gone in five years…
————————
http://beyond2012hq.com/will-2012-be-the-end-for-arctic-summer-ice/
August 28, 2009 at 12:29 pm
Arctic Summer Ice Gone by 2012
In 2007, scientists examined the record ice melt over the Arctic to attempt to assess the cause and to identify if it was a realistic indicator of future happenings or just a blip.
Revised estimates confirm that the accelerated melt is continuing and within 3 years there will be no summer ice in the Arctic.
————————
http://planetearth.nerc.ac.uk/features/story.aspx?id=208
Arctic sea ice: going, going, gone
28 October 2008
In autumn 2007, sea-ice reached its lowest point ever recorded. 2008 came close to surpassing this record. Computer models predict the Arctic may be ice-free in summer by 2030.
————————
http://ecology.com/features/vanishing-artic-ice-cap/vanishing-artic-ice-cap.html
The Vanishing of the Arctic Ice Cap
By Eric McLamb
Not only is the Arctic ice cap shrinking, it is shrinking at a pace that places its disappearance two to three decades ahead of the gloomiest previous forecasts. It is now generally predicted that the Arctic ice cap will totally disappear in 20 – 25 years, …
————————
————————
http://current.com/green/88653981_polar-ice-gone-by-2012.htm
December 11, 2007
Polar ice gone by 2012?
source: http://www.cnn.com/2007/TECH/science/12/11/arctic.melt.ap/index.html
This week, after reviewing his own new data, NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally said: “At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions.”
————————
http://www.cnn.com/2007/TECH/science/12/11/arctic.melt.ap/index.html
Source of above article. Missing.
————————
http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/europe/10/15/climate.arctic.sea.ice.melt/index.html?iref=storysearch
Arctic ice to vanish in summer, report says
updated 6:55 p.m. EDT, Thu October 15, 2009
# Story Highlights
# New report says Arctic sea ice will largely disappear in summer within a decade
# Survey captured latest data on ice thickness in Northern part of Beaufort Sea
# Measurements show the ice-floes surveyed were on average 1.8 meters thick
# Scientists warn that Arctic ice melt is likely to set off “powerful climate feedbacks”
————————
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/arctics-vanishing-sea-ice-presents-polar-bear-with-a-new-danger-ndash-grizzlies-2161640.html
Arctic’s vanishing sea ice presents polar bear with a new danger – grizzlies
By Steve Connor, Science Editor
Thursday, 16 December 2010
“The Arctic Ocean is predicted to be ice-free in summer before the end of the century, removing a continent-sized barrier to interbreeding…”
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http://www.usatoday.com/tech/science/environment/2009-08-09-canada-ice_N.htm
Large expanses of Arctic ice melt away in summer heat
Updated 8/9/2009 8:26 PM
At a global conference last March in Copenhagen, scientists declared that climate change is occurring faster than had been anticipated, citing the fast-dying Arctic cap as one example. A month later, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted Arctic summers could be almost ice-free within 30 years, not at the century’s end as earlier predicted.
————————
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/story/2009/08/10/summer-ice-melt-arctic.html
Arctic ice watchers concerned by warm summer
Last Updated: Monday, August 10, 2009 | 8:29 AM CT
The Associated Press
A month later, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted Arctic summers could be almost ice-free within 30 years, not at the century’s end as earlier predicted
————————

Joe Romm:
http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/07/16/266463/arctic-ice-at-record-low-nsidc-director-serreze-ice-free-summer-by-2030-downward-spiral/
SciGuy:
http://blog.chron.com/sciguy/2010/09/climate-interview-arctic-ice-expert-robert-correll-on-rapid-melting-and-why-it-should-concern-us/
Sky News:
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/World-News/North-Pole-Ice-Set-For-Massive-Melt-Arctic-Ocean-Set-To-Be-Open-Sea-By-2020/Article/200910215405968
The We:
http://www.thewe.cc/weplanet/news/water/dramatic_melt_in_arctic_icecape.htm
Carbon brief:
http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2011/05/political-tension-in-the-arctic-ratchets-up-as-sea-ice-melts
Demand Side:
http://www.demandsideeconomics.net/2011/04/transcript-432-what-is-economics.html
Guardian/David Adam:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/oct/15/arctic-survey-ice-melting
EarthSky:
http://earthsky.org/earth/claire-parkinson-on-disappearing-sea-ice-and-its-impacts
Peter Griffiths/Reuters/Sweetness…
http://sweetness-light.com/archive/ice-free-arctic-alarmist-funded-by-wwf
Sydney Morning Herald/Marian Wilkinson quoting Robie Macdonald
http://www.smh.com.au/news/global-warming/climate-of-fear-as-ice-vanishes/2008/08/03/1217701855502.html

I thought there was a UK project to transcribe/copy the ship logs of Her Majesty’s Navy into a computer database. These would include records far older than the 1817 article that was found. Anyone know something about this? These recods may not be on the Internet yet, but might be available another way in the UK. While not specifically predictions of global warming, they would document a lack of ice in the Arctic.
Any Icelandic sagas that speak to this topic? They could be even older.

Here is a discussion titled “Arctic Sea Ice decline in the 21st Century” at RealClimate by Cecilia Bitz
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/01/arctic-sea-ice-decline-in-the-21st-century/
Bitz is responding to many of the newspaper articles based upon one of her papers.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090402_seaice.html
NOAA Apr 2,2009
We’ll have an ice free arctic within 30 years….

I wish to leave another avenue of inquiry, for your consideration. How about the use of the word “accelerating,” as in accelerating sea rises. Here is my concerns, each accepting the argument that “global warming” is primarily caused by man made ghgs in the past decades:
1. Why would there be accelerating global whatever from warming if the rise in CO2 concentrations has been constant and near linear for decades, as shown in the Mauna Loa readings.
2. Given AGW theory, should it not be true that warming should be decelerating given the emissivity characteristics of the CO2 molecule losing its “power to absorb” (so to speak) logarithmically? Thanks.