I need your help for a short research project

No, I’m not asking for money, just some crowdsourced help. I have a short project that I can do in some free time tomorrow night, that is if I can get a little help. As you folks know by now, I’ve reduced the amount of time I spend on WUWT to work on my business which needs attention.

Normally I’d do this research myself, but I figure I have the best web research team in the world at my fingertips – the WUWT reader base, so that’s why I’m asking. Crowdsourcing a project like this moves it along quickly.

Here’s what I’m looking for:

I’m looking for pronouncements in press and blogs from prominent players and scientists in the AGW issue where they’ve said “We’ll have an ice free Arctic by the year xxxx”.

This number keeps changing, I’d like to document it and I have an idea about what I can do with it once a database of such pronouncements is established.

This can be recent news, as well as older news items. I recall that there have been some news article from as far back as the mid to early 20th century that have had such pronouncements.

Just leave what you find in comments below. Be sure to inlcude a URL in the comment, just paste it from your browser address bar and wordpress will automatically make a link out of it.

I’ll be offline most of today, but will check in tonight. Thanks for your consideration.

Anthony

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Jamie Mash

Here’s one from Ban Ki Moon in 2009, avidly reported by the Biased Broadcasting Corporation (I submitted a complaint after this was on BBC TV News):
“If this trend is not stopped, we may have a virtually ice-free Arctic within 30 years,”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8230921.stm

AdderW

BBC
Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013’
By Jonathan Amos
Science reporter, BBC News, San Francisco
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm

Roy UK

This is one of my book marks:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/12/14/gore-entire-north-polar-ice-cap-will-be-gone-in-5-years/
I think this fits the bill, and you probably already know about it. 🙂

CRS, Dr.P.H.

Anthony, I often use “Google Scholar” for these quick & dirty projects. I entered “arctic ice free” into the search bar and found numerous hits, including many free .pdf downloads. Please see:
http://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=arctic+ice+free&hl=en&btnG=Search&as_sdt=1%2C14&as_sdtp=on
I hope that helps, email me if you need more specific help or need copies of the actual papers. I can get past paywalls with my UIC sign-in. Cheers, Charles the DrPH

Roy UK

And also the ice cap was already gone last year according to this report:
http://www.canada.com/topics/news/national/story.html?id=c76d05dd-2864-43b2-a2e3-82e0a8ca05d5&k=53683
The Arctic Ocean could be free of ice in the summer as soon as 2010 or 2015 – something that hasn’t happened for more than a million years, according to a leading polar researcher. this according to Louis Fortier, scientific director of ArcticNet.

From ClimateCrisis.net, “The Arctic Ocean could be ice free in summer by 2050” with a footnote: “Arctic Climate Impact Assessment. 2004. Impacts of a Warming Arctic. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. Also quoted in Time Magazine, Vicious Cycles, Missy Adams, March 26, 2006.”
See >here.

Noelene

“NOAA cites as its source on Arctic sea ice a study published in the April 3, 2009 edition of Geophysical Research Letters by J.E. Overland and Muyin Wang. (Overland works for NOAA at the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory and Wang is at the Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, in Seattle.)
http://mrc.org/pdf/WANG-OVERLAND-ARCTIC%20SEA%20ICE%20ESTIMATE.pdf
In their study, Overland and Wang “predict an expected value for a nearly sea ice free Arctic in September by the year 2037.” They also note in their summary, however, that “a sea ice free Arctic in September may occur as early as the late 2020s” based on their analysis of six computer models.” (quoted text from http://www.cnsnews.com/node/69845)
Second prediction is 2013: Professor Wieslaw Maslowski, source http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm

rc

Hard to tell which if these are the same study, repeated by difference media outlets. It’s kind of shocking how many of these are out there though. But here is one:
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090402_seaice.html

Not sure if these qualify, but here are a couple from old newspapers.
Calgary Herald 1972 – ice-free within 20 – 40 years:
http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=cGxkAAAAIBAJ&sjid=GH0NAAAAIBAJ&pg=2702,2002323
Deseret News 1959 – ice-free “in not too many decades”:
http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=eYxSAAAAIBAJ&sjid=Q0gDAAAAIBAJ&pg=4992,1227845

docduke

Headline: North Pole May Be Ice-Free for First Time This Summer
Dateline: June 20, 2008
Source: National Geographic News
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2008/06/080620-north-pole.html

rc

Then, of course, there are these clowns:
http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2007/12/12/202190/an-ice-free-arctic-by-2013/
http://articles.cnn.com/2009-10-15/world/climate.arctic.sea.ice.melt_1_sea-ice-arctic-ocean-thicker-ice?_s=PM:WORLD
This is a good one:
“Exclusive: Scientists warn that there may be no ice at North Pole this summer
Polar scientists reveal dramatic new evidence of climate change
By Steve Connor, Science Editor
Friday, 27 June 2008”
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/exclusive-scientists-warn-that-there-may-be-no-ice-at-north-pole-this-summer-855406.html

The Praeger Handbook on Contemporary Issues in Native America by Bruce Elliott Johansen, Praeger Publishers, Westport, CT (2007), p. 285:
Watt-Cloutier told a climate-change conference in Seattle on October 27, 2003, “I am not being alarmist when I say that many inuit leaders have concluded that the long term impact of climate change is the ‘ultimate’ threat facing [the] Inuit.” By 2070 to 2090, said Watt-Cloutier, scientific projections suggest that year-round sea ice will be limited to a small portion of the Arctic Ocean near the North Pole. The rest of the arctic will be ice-free in summer.

rc

More long-term than most:
“Arctic Summer Could be Ice-Free by 2105”
http://www.livescience.com/401-arctic-summer-ice-free-2105.html

Andrew Harding

Hi Anthony
I have copied and pasted various web links below, I typed in “when will arctic be ice free” into google and got 1.5 million websites. Since you are supposed to be taking it a bit easier and attending to other things I have not copied the other 1,499,993 links. You are right of course there is an absolute wealth of b******t out there.
Hope this helps
news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm From Dec 2007
http://www.treehugger.com/files/2008/12/arctic-melting-2015.php
news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/10/091015-arctic-ice-free-gone-g lobal-warming.htm
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/5116352/Arctic-will-be-ice-free-wi thin-a-decade.html ( I am surprised at the Daily Telegraph spouting such drivel)
http://www.climatewatch.noaa.gov/image/2010/will-the-arctic-be-free-of-summer -sea-ice-in-30-years
http://www.reuters.com/article/2009/10/15/us-climate-britain-arctic-science-i dUSTRE59E18W20091015
motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2011/05/chart-day-arctic-sea-ice
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/aug/10/climatechange.arctic

Here’s a newspaper article from 1926. The North Pole was pretty much ice free in 1926, as reported by the crew of the first dirigible flight across the N. Pole:
http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=5louAAAAIBAJ&sjid=oNkFAAAAIBAJ&pg=6377,694076&dq=north-pole+water&hl=en
Today’s North Pole ice cover is huge by comparison. And then there’s John Daly’s report of open water at the formerly solid ice covered, impenetrable Polar region back in 1817:
“It will without doubt have come to your Lordship’s knowledge that a considerable change of climate, inexplicable at present to us, must have taken place in the Circumpolar Regions, by which the severity of the cold that has for centuries past enclosed the seas in the high northern latitudes in an impenetrable barrier of ice has been during the last two years, greatly abated.”
http://www.john-daly.com/polar/arctic.htm

rc

Ok, I’m having too much fun doing this. One more:
“NCAR News Release
Abrupt Ice Retreat Could Produce Ice-Free Arctic Summers by 2040
December 11, 2006”
http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2006/arctic.shtml

Last Chance: Preserving Life on Earth by Larry J. Schweiger, Theodore Roosevelt, IV, Fulcrum Publishing (2009), p. 24:
[Maslowski] warned scientists that the Arctic will be ice-free sometime during the summer of 2013.
Also on p. 109.:
Another instance in a long line of US media failures occurred on December 12, 2007, when Wieslaw Maslowski, a research professor at the Naval Postgraduate School, told a large gathering at the American Geophysical Union meeting that the Arctic will be ice-free sometime during the summer of 2013.

Tom in Florida

“This week, after reviewing his own new data, NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally said: “At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions.” ”
Sorry in my haste I lost the link to the article I took this from. I hope you can find it if I cannot.

netdr

I liked this one.
It is not about Arctic Ice but that was just an example wasn’t it ?
http://dailycaller.com/2011/04/16/the-un-disappears-50-million-climate-refugees-then-botches-the-cover-up/
In 2005, the United Nations Environment Programme predicted that climate change would create 50 million climate refugees by 2010. These people, it was said, would flee a range of disasters including sea level rise, increases in the numbers and severity of hurricanes, and disruption to food production.
The UNEP even provided a handy map. The map shows us the places most at risk including the very sensitive low lying islands of the Pacific and Caribbean.
It so happens that just a few of these islands and other places most at risk have since had censuses, so it should be possible for us now to get some idea of the devastating impact climate change is having on their populations. Let’s have a look at the evidence:
Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2011/04/16/the-un-disappears-50-million-climate-refugees-then-botches-the-cover-up/#ixzz1SI8Sz6p2

Robinson

Ice-free by 2013
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/7139797.stm
“Professor Wieslaw Maslowski told an American Geophysical Union meeting that previous projections had underestimated the processes now driving ice loss.”
Ice-free within 30 years
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/jul/11/arctic-ice-free
“In the past 10 days, the Arctic ocean has been losing as much as 150,000 square kilometres of sea a day, said Mark Serreze, director of the NSIDC.”
Ice-free within a decade
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/5116352/Arctic-will-be-ice-free-within-a-decade.html
“Walt Meier, research scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Centre at the University of Colorado where the research was carried out, said global warming had caused the ice to retreat dramatically in the last two decades. The six lowest recordings of sea ice cover were all recorded in the last six years.”
Ice-free in 2008 (?!!!)
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn13779?DCMP=ILC-hmts&nsref=news1_head_dn13779
“The set-up for this summer is disturbing,” says Mark Serreze, of the US National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). A number of factors have this year led to most of the Arctic ice being thin and vulnerable as it enters its summer melting season.
Ice-free by 2105
http://www.livescience.com/401-arctic-summer-ice-free-2105.html
“What really makes the Arctic different from the rest of the non-polar world is the permanent ice in the ground, in the ocean, and on land,” said Jonathan Overpeck, chair of the National Science Foundation’s Arctic System Science Committee. “We see all of that ice melting already, and we envision that it will melt back much more dramatically in the future, as we move towards this more permanent ice-free state.”

Climate of Corruption: Politics and Power Behind the Global Warming Hoax, by Larry Bell, Austin TX (2011), p. 145:
Citing new research undertaken at the US Navy’s Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California, Mr. Gore told attendees, “These figures are fresh. Some of the models suggest to Dr. [Wieslaw] Maslowski that there is a 75 percent chance the entire north polar ice cap, during the summer months, could be completely ice-free within five to seven years . . . It is hard to capture the astonishment that the experts in the science of ice felt when they saw this.”
Scientists wwre astonished by Gore’s statements. One was none other than Dr. Maslowski himself, who responded, “It’s unclear to me how the figure was arrived at […”]

AJB

” … but, for what it’s worth, some scientists are now pegging it at 2015. That, according to David Barber of the University of Manitoba, will be the year when all of the region’s sea ice will be gone for the first time.”
http://www.treehugger.com/files/2008/12/arctic-melting-2015.php

Tom in Florida
Joe Prins
netdr

The arctic has been beaten to death.
Let’s branch out.
Holdren’s predictions :
Excerpt: Senator David Vitter (R-Louisiana): OK. Another statement. In 1986, you predicted that global warming could cause the deaths of one billion people by 2020. Would you stick to that statement today?
Holdren: Well, again, I wouldn’t have called it a prediction then, and I wouldn’t call it a prediction now. I think it is unlikely to happen, but it is …
http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=2794

john

john
http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2009/11/in-nod-to-global-warming-navy-prepares-for-ice-free-arctic/#more-19607
[snip]
The Navy’s Arctic Roadmap (.pdf), written by the recently launched Navy Task Force Climate Change (TFCC), opens with an acknowledgment that worldwide temperatures are on the rise — especially up north. “The Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the globe. While significant uncertainty exists in projections for Arctic ice extent, the current scientific consensus indicates the Arctic may experience nearly ice-free summers sometime in the 2030s,” the document notes.

Khwarizmi

1. Arctic will be ice-free within a decade, Telegraph, UK, Apr 2009
Walt Meier, research scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Centre at the University of Colorado where the research was carried out, said global warming had caused the ice to retreat dramatically in the last two decades. The six lowest recordings of sea ice cover were all recorded in the last six years. He said thinner sea ice is less likely to survive the summer and predicted the Arctic Ocean will be effectively ice free sometime between 2020 and 2040, although it is possible it could happen as early as 2013.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/5116352/Arctic-will-be-ice-free-within-a-decade.html
2. Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013’, BBC, December 2007
– “Our projection of 2013 for the removal of ice in summer is not accounting for the last two minima, in 2005 and 2007,” the researcher [Professor Wieslaw Maslowski] from the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, explained to the BBC. “So given that fact, you can argue that may be our projection of 2013 is already too conservative.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm

Paul Vaughan

Search “ice free by 2012”, “ice free by 2013”, etc., one at a time.
Include the quotes.
Here’s a good one from 2007 regarding 2012:
“Arctic Sea Ice Gone in Summer Within Five Years?”
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/12/071212-AP-arctic-melt.html
Select quotes from the article:
“”The Arctic is screaming,” said Mark Serreze, senior scientist at the government’s snow and ice data center in Boulder, Colorado. “
“You can’t look away from what’s happening here,” said Waleed Abdalati, NASA’s chief of cyrospheric sciences.”
“[…] has everything sped up to a new climate cycle that goes beyond the worst case scenarios presented by computer models?”
“NASA’s Zwally said […] “It’s getting even worse than the models predicted.” “
Section-headings assert:
“The Facts”
“Tipping Point”
“New Regime”

netdr

Holdren is quite quotable and always wrong !
He is like a stopped clock except a stopped clock is right 2 times a day and Holdren is NEVER RIGHT.

Cal Smith

This posting, http://groups.google.com/group/alt.global-warming/browse_thread/thread/794c66c45aab63d0?fwc=1&pli=1
Contains this paragraph:
3. “Arctic specialist Bernt Balchen says a general warming trend over
the North Pole is melting the polar ice cap and may produce an ice-
free Arctic Ocean by the year 2000.” Christian Science Monitor, June
8, 1972. In 2008 Dr. David Barber of Manitoba University said “We’re
actually projecting this year that the North Pole may be free of ice
for the first time,” (ignoring the many earlier times the Pole has
been ice free).

john

Arctic death spiral: Naval Postgrad School’s Maslowski “projects ice-free* fall by 2016 (+/- 3 yrs)”
http://climatechangepsychology.blogspot.com/2010/06/maslowski-projects-ice-free-arctic-by.html

netdr

I’m sure everyone remembers this one
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/22/a-little-known-but-failed-20-year-old-climate-change-prediction-by-dr-james-hansen/
Michaels also has the facts wrong about a 1988 interview of me by Bob Reiss, in which Reiss asked me to speculate on changes that might happen in New York City in 40 years assuming CO2 doubled in amount. Michaels has it as 20 years, not 40 years, with no mention of doubled CO2. Reiss verified this fact to me, but he later sent the message:
“I went back to my book and re-read the interview I had with you. I am embarrassed to say that although the book text is correct, in remembering our original conversation, during a casual phone interview with a Salon magazine reporter in 2001 I was off in years. What I asked you originally at your office window was for a prediction of what Broadway would look like in 40 years, not 20. But when I spoke to the Salon reporter 10 years later probably because I’d been watching the predictions come true, I remembered it as a 20 year question.“

Phil's Dad

Within a century
“Arctic System on Trajectory to New, Seasonally Ice-Free State” Overpeck, Jonathan T
http://atoc.colorado.edu/~dcn/reprints/Overpeck_etal_EOS2005.pdf
And our old friend from the BBC in 2007 gave it 60 years
“The projection is that within about 60 years, there will be no summer ice at all on the Arctic Ocean.” Richard Black, BBC News. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4315968.stm
How about a few decades from 2009
“Arctic Ocean could be ice-free in late summer in only a few decades,…”
Bo, J.; Hall, A.; Qu, X. (2009). Nature Geoscience 2 (5): 341
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v2/n5/full/ngeo467.html
Or from this month a similar 19 years to go
“The extent [of the ice cover] is going down, but it is also thinning. So a weather pattern that formerly would melt some ice now gets rid of much more. There will be ups and downs, but we are on track to see an ice-free summer by 2030. It is an overall downward spiral.” Mark Serreze, director of the NSIDC.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/jul/11/arctic-ice-free
Although a couple of years earlier the same guy said 10 years
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/10/091015-arctic-ice-free-gone-global-warming.html.
And from 2007, 5-6 years to go (that’s now!)
Northern polar waters could be ice-free in summers within just 5-6 years Professor Wieslaw Maslowski told an American Geophysical Union meeting. “…you can argue that may be our projection of 2013 is already too conservative.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/7139797.stm

John Whitman

FreshNor says,
“”””Projecting the trend into the future indicates that [Artic] autumn could become near ice free between 2011 and 2016 (Maslowski, 2009).”””
FreshNor consortium: Danish Climate Centre, DMI Rossby Centre, SMHI (Sweden), Iceland Meteorological Institute, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (Norway), Greenland Institute of Natural Resources.
Their link: http://freshnor.dmi.dk/handout_freshnor.pdf
Hope that helps.
John

Might I suggest running this list of articles through a duplicate link checker when it is finished? That would probably save some time and eliminate any double posts that might have slipped past.

Luther Wu

Maslowski’s “study” (cited above) was probably the most famous alarmist screed, predicting total melt by 2013. He’s moved that up a bit to a ‘best guess’ of 2016 (+/- 3yrs).
Better hurry.
http://breakingnewsdir.com/new-warning-on-arctic-ice-melt-204763.html

netdr

Here are the Hansen model output, which are a type of prediction.
It looks pretty good if the calendar said 2007, but it doesn’t.
http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/archives/hansenscenarios.png
Here are the SR4 Projections
http://imageshack.us/m/831/1395/ipccar4a1bmonthlypredic.png
They have already “jumped the shark” and they are young.
It looks to me like thy predicted 4. ° C temperature rise between 2000 and 2011 which didn’t happen. Did it ?

John Campbell
netdr

I would like to see a whole range of failed predictions not just Ice Free arctic ones.
Alarmists are terrible swami’s and it is fun to tweak their tail.
They have predicted 100 out of the past 0 catastrophe’s .

David, UK

Of course, none of these dates are predictions. No, they’re merely projections (definition of projection: n. forecast; guestimation; similar to a prediction, but one that can be announced with utter confidence and absolutely no accountability).
So, cue Swedish poodle-rockers Europe with their hit “The final Countdown” (to ice-free Arctic summers):
By 2105 (published 2005):
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/08/050824081334.htm
By 2060-2080 (published 2009):
http://www.modelmayhem.com/po.php?thread_id=519495&page=1
By 2040 (published 2006):
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2006/12/061212-arctic-ice.html
By 2030 (published 2011):
http://4gwar.wordpress.com/2011/07/13/arctic-ice-free-polar-waters-by-2030/
By 2020 (published 2010):
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/5116352/Arctic-will-be-ice-free-within-a-decade.html
By 2019 (published 2009):
http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=12627&page=104
By 2015 (published 2008 and updated 2010):
http://stephenleahy.net/2008/12/30/arctic-ice-gone-2015-first-time-in-a-million-years/
By 2012 (!) (published 2007 – the original Associated Press story has been removed, but the story is still found on an alarmist blog here):
http://easygrowhouseplants.blogspot.com/2007/12/arctic-to-be-ice-free-by-2050-2040-now.html
Now look at the watch… LOOK, I tells yer!.. you are feeling sleepy… your eyelids are very heavy… you’re going back in time… back… back… back…
By 2000 (published 1973):
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2010/12/30/arctic-to-be-ice-free-by-the-year-2000/
By 1989 (published 1969)
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2011/04/25/experts-1969-arctic-ice-free-within-two-decades/
By 125000 BC (published 2008 – OK, not a prediction, so probably right)
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/faq.html

Mike Ozanne

Haunting the library for 19/1/2011 quotes Hanson predicting an IFA in “the next couple of decades”

PaulH

The Arctic may not yet be ice free as predicted, but it’s probably all rotten ice anyway.
/justkidding

huishi

Article from 1873 discussing open water in the Arctic Ocean and that they believed the north pole was actually ice free.
http://paperspast.natlib.govt.nz/cgi-bin/paperspast?a=d&d=ST18730328.2.20
I love the old newspaper records of the poles since they did not yet know that they should not dispute the computer models. (oracles? gore-acles?)