I need your help for a short research project

No, I’m not asking for money, just some crowdsourced help. I have a short project that I can do in some free time tomorrow night, that is if I can get a little help. As you folks know by now, I’ve reduced the amount of time I spend on WUWT to work on my business which needs attention.

Normally I’d do this research myself, but I figure I have the best web research team in the world at my fingertips – the WUWT reader base, so that’s why I’m asking. Crowdsourcing a project like this moves it along quickly.

Here’s what I’m looking for:

I’m looking for pronouncements in press and blogs from prominent players and scientists in the AGW issue where they’ve said “We’ll have an ice free Arctic by the year xxxx”.

This number keeps changing, I’d like to document it and I have an idea about what I can do with it once a database of such pronouncements is established.

This can be recent news, as well as older news items. I recall that there have been some news article from as far back as the mid to early 20th century that have had such pronouncements.

Just leave what you find in comments below. Be sure to inlcude a URL in the comment, just paste it from your browser address bar and wordpress will automatically make a link out of it.

I’ll be offline most of today, but will check in tonight. Thanks for your consideration.


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Jamie Mash
July 16, 2011 9:58 am

Here’s one from Ban Ki Moon in 2009, avidly reported by the Biased Broadcasting Corporation (I submitted a complaint after this was on BBC TV News):
“If this trend is not stopped, we may have a virtually ice-free Arctic within 30 years,”

July 16, 2011 9:58 am

Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013’
By Jonathan Amos
Science reporter, BBC News, San Francisco

Roy UK
July 16, 2011 10:04 am

This is one of my book marks:
I think this fits the bill, and you probably already know about it. 🙂

CRS, Dr.P.H.
July 16, 2011 10:07 am

Anthony, I often use “Google Scholar” for these quick & dirty projects. I entered “arctic ice free” into the search bar and found numerous hits, including many free .pdf downloads. Please see:
I hope that helps, email me if you need more specific help or need copies of the actual papers. I can get past paywalls with my UIC sign-in. Cheers, Charles the DrPH

Roy UK
July 16, 2011 10:10 am

And also the ice cap was already gone last year according to this report:
The Arctic Ocean could be free of ice in the summer as soon as 2010 or 2015 – something that hasn’t happened for more than a million years, according to a leading polar researcher. this according to Louis Fortier, scientific director of ArcticNet.

July 16, 2011 10:14 am
July 16, 2011 10:15 am

From ClimateCrisis.net, “The Arctic Ocean could be ice free in summer by 2050” with a footnote: “Arctic Climate Impact Assessment. 2004. Impacts of a Warming Arctic. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. Also quoted in Time Magazine, Vicious Cycles, Missy Adams, March 26, 2006.”
See >here.

July 16, 2011 10:16 am
July 16, 2011 10:17 am

“NOAA cites as its source on Arctic sea ice a study published in the April 3, 2009 edition of Geophysical Research Letters by J.E. Overland and Muyin Wang. (Overland works for NOAA at the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory and Wang is at the Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, in Seattle.)
In their study, Overland and Wang “predict an expected value for a nearly sea ice free Arctic in September by the year 2037.” They also note in their summary, however, that “a sea ice free Arctic in September may occur as early as the late 2020s” based on their analysis of six computer models.” (quoted text from http://www.cnsnews.com/node/69845)
Second prediction is 2013: Professor Wieslaw Maslowski, source http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm

July 16, 2011 10:18 am

Hard to tell which if these are the same study, repeated by difference media outlets. It’s kind of shocking how many of these are out there though. But here is one:

July 16, 2011 10:21 am

Not sure if these qualify, but here are a couple from old newspapers.
Calgary Herald 1972 – ice-free within 20 – 40 years:
Deseret News 1959 – ice-free “in not too many decades”:

July 16, 2011 10:23 am

Headline: North Pole May Be Ice-Free for First Time This Summer
Dateline: June 20, 2008
Source: National Geographic News

July 16, 2011 10:27 am

Then, of course, there are these clowns:
This is a good one:
“Exclusive: Scientists warn that there may be no ice at North Pole this summer
Polar scientists reveal dramatic new evidence of climate change
By Steve Connor, Science Editor
Friday, 27 June 2008”

July 16, 2011 10:29 am

The Praeger Handbook on Contemporary Issues in Native America by Bruce Elliott Johansen, Praeger Publishers, Westport, CT (2007), p. 285:
Watt-Cloutier told a climate-change conference in Seattle on October 27, 2003, “I am not being alarmist when I say that many inuit leaders have concluded that the long term impact of climate change is the ‘ultimate’ threat facing [the] Inuit.” By 2070 to 2090, said Watt-Cloutier, scientific projections suggest that year-round sea ice will be limited to a small portion of the Arctic Ocean near the North Pole. The rest of the arctic will be ice-free in summer.

July 16, 2011 10:33 am

More long-term than most:
“Arctic Summer Could be Ice-Free by 2105”

Andrew Harding
July 16, 2011 10:35 am

Hi Anthony
I have copied and pasted various web links below, I typed in “when will arctic be ice free” into google and got 1.5 million websites. Since you are supposed to be taking it a bit easier and attending to other things I have not copied the other 1,499,993 links. You are right of course there is an absolute wealth of b******t out there.
Hope this helps
news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm From Dec 2007
news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/10/091015-arctic-ice-free-gone-g lobal-warming.htm
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/5116352/Arctic-will-be-ice-free-wi thin-a-decade.html ( I am surprised at the Daily Telegraph spouting such drivel)
http://www.climatewatch.noaa.gov/image/2010/will-the-arctic-be-free-of-summer -sea-ice-in-30-years
http://www.reuters.com/article/2009/10/15/us-climate-britain-arctic-science-i dUSTRE59E18W20091015

July 16, 2011 10:36 am

Here’s a newspaper article from 1926. The North Pole was pretty much ice free in 1926, as reported by the crew of the first dirigible flight across the N. Pole:
Today’s North Pole ice cover is huge by comparison. And then there’s John Daly’s report of open water at the formerly solid ice covered, impenetrable Polar region back in 1817:
“It will without doubt have come to your Lordship’s knowledge that a considerable change of climate, inexplicable at present to us, must have taken place in the Circumpolar Regions, by which the severity of the cold that has for centuries past enclosed the seas in the high northern latitudes in an impenetrable barrier of ice has been during the last two years, greatly abated.”

July 16, 2011 10:38 am

Ok, I’m having too much fun doing this. One more:
“NCAR News Release
Abrupt Ice Retreat Could Produce Ice-Free Arctic Summers by 2040
December 11, 2006”

July 16, 2011 10:39 am

Last Chance: Preserving Life on Earth by Larry J. Schweiger, Theodore Roosevelt, IV, Fulcrum Publishing (2009), p. 24:
[Maslowski] warned scientists that the Arctic will be ice-free sometime during the summer of 2013.
Also on p. 109.:
Another instance in a long line of US media failures occurred on December 12, 2007, when Wieslaw Maslowski, a research professor at the Naval Postgraduate School, told a large gathering at the American Geophysical Union meeting that the Arctic will be ice-free sometime during the summer of 2013.

Tom in Florida
July 16, 2011 10:44 am

“This week, after reviewing his own new data, NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally said: “At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions.” ”
Sorry in my haste I lost the link to the article I took this from. I hope you can find it if I cannot.

July 16, 2011 10:46 am

I liked this one.
It is not about Arctic Ice but that was just an example wasn’t it ?
In 2005, the United Nations Environment Programme predicted that climate change would create 50 million climate refugees by 2010. These people, it was said, would flee a range of disasters including sea level rise, increases in the numbers and severity of hurricanes, and disruption to food production.
The UNEP even provided a handy map. The map shows us the places most at risk including the very sensitive low lying islands of the Pacific and Caribbean.
It so happens that just a few of these islands and other places most at risk have since had censuses, so it should be possible for us now to get some idea of the devastating impact climate change is having on their populations. Let’s have a look at the evidence:
Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2011/04/16/the-un-disappears-50-million-climate-refugees-then-botches-the-cover-up/#ixzz1SI8Sz6p2

July 16, 2011 10:46 am

Ice-free by 2013
“Professor Wieslaw Maslowski told an American Geophysical Union meeting that previous projections had underestimated the processes now driving ice loss.”
Ice-free within 30 years
“In the past 10 days, the Arctic ocean has been losing as much as 150,000 square kilometres of sea a day, said Mark Serreze, director of the NSIDC.”
Ice-free within a decade
“Walt Meier, research scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Centre at the University of Colorado where the research was carried out, said global warming had caused the ice to retreat dramatically in the last two decades. The six lowest recordings of sea ice cover were all recorded in the last six years.”
Ice-free in 2008 (?!!!)
“The set-up for this summer is disturbing,” says Mark Serreze, of the US National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). A number of factors have this year led to most of the Arctic ice being thin and vulnerable as it enters its summer melting season.
Ice-free by 2105
“What really makes the Arctic different from the rest of the non-polar world is the permanent ice in the ground, in the ocean, and on land,” said Jonathan Overpeck, chair of the National Science Foundation’s Arctic System Science Committee. “We see all of that ice melting already, and we envision that it will melt back much more dramatically in the future, as we move towards this more permanent ice-free state.”

July 16, 2011 10:47 am

Climate of Corruption: Politics and Power Behind the Global Warming Hoax, by Larry Bell, Austin TX (2011), p. 145:
Citing new research undertaken at the US Navy’s Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California, Mr. Gore told attendees, “These figures are fresh. Some of the models suggest to Dr. [Wieslaw] Maslowski that there is a 75 percent chance the entire north polar ice cap, during the summer months, could be completely ice-free within five to seven years . . . It is hard to capture the astonishment that the experts in the science of ice felt when they saw this.”
Scientists wwre astonished by Gore’s statements. One was none other than Dr. Maslowski himself, who responded, “It’s unclear to me how the figure was arrived at […”]

July 16, 2011 10:47 am

” … but, for what it’s worth, some scientists are now pegging it at 2015. That, according to David Barber of the University of Manitoba, will be the year when all of the region’s sea ice will be gone for the first time.”

Tom in Florida
July 16, 2011 10:50 am
Joe Prins
July 16, 2011 10:52 am
July 16, 2011 10:52 am

The arctic has been beaten to death.
Let’s branch out.
Holdren’s predictions :
Excerpt: Senator David Vitter (R-Louisiana): OK. Another statement. In 1986, you predicted that global warming could cause the deaths of one billion people by 2020. Would you stick to that statement today?
Holdren: Well, again, I wouldn’t have called it a prediction then, and I wouldn’t call it a prediction now. I think it is unlikely to happen, but it is …

July 16, 2011 10:53 am

The Navy’s Arctic Roadmap (.pdf), written by the recently launched Navy Task Force Climate Change (TFCC), opens with an acknowledgment that worldwide temperatures are on the rise — especially up north. “The Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the globe. While significant uncertainty exists in projections for Arctic ice extent, the current scientific consensus indicates the Arctic may experience nearly ice-free summers sometime in the 2030s,” the document notes.

July 16, 2011 10:53 am

1. Arctic will be ice-free within a decade, Telegraph, UK, Apr 2009
Walt Meier, research scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Centre at the University of Colorado where the research was carried out, said global warming had caused the ice to retreat dramatically in the last two decades. The six lowest recordings of sea ice cover were all recorded in the last six years. He said thinner sea ice is less likely to survive the summer and predicted the Arctic Ocean will be effectively ice free sometime between 2020 and 2040, although it is possible it could happen as early as 2013.
2. Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013’, BBC, December 2007
– “Our projection of 2013 for the removal of ice in summer is not accounting for the last two minima, in 2005 and 2007,” the researcher [Professor Wieslaw Maslowski] from the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, explained to the BBC. “So given that fact, you can argue that may be our projection of 2013 is already too conservative.

Paul Vaughan
July 16, 2011 10:54 am

Search “ice free by 2012”, “ice free by 2013”, etc., one at a time.
Include the quotes.
Here’s a good one from 2007 regarding 2012:
“Arctic Sea Ice Gone in Summer Within Five Years?”
Select quotes from the article:
“”The Arctic is screaming,” said Mark Serreze, senior scientist at the government’s snow and ice data center in Boulder, Colorado. “
“You can’t look away from what’s happening here,” said Waleed Abdalati, NASA’s chief of cyrospheric sciences.”
“[…] has everything sped up to a new climate cycle that goes beyond the worst case scenarios presented by computer models?”
“NASA’s Zwally said […] “It’s getting even worse than the models predicted.” “
Section-headings assert:
“The Facts”
“Tipping Point”
“New Regime”

July 16, 2011 10:55 am

Holdren is quite quotable and always wrong !
He is like a stopped clock except a stopped clock is right 2 times a day and Holdren is NEVER RIGHT.

Cal Smith
July 16, 2011 11:01 am

This posting, http://groups.google.com/group/alt.global-warming/browse_thread/thread/794c66c45aab63d0?fwc=1&pli=1
Contains this paragraph:
3. “Arctic specialist Bernt Balchen says a general warming trend over
the North Pole is melting the polar ice cap and may produce an ice-
free Arctic Ocean by the year 2000.” Christian Science Monitor, June
8, 1972. In 2008 Dr. David Barber of Manitoba University said “We’re
actually projecting this year that the North Pole may be free of ice
for the first time,” (ignoring the many earlier times the Pole has
been ice free).

July 16, 2011 11:02 am

Arctic death spiral: Naval Postgrad School’s Maslowski “projects ice-free* fall by 2016 (+/- 3 yrs)”

July 16, 2011 11:04 am

I’m sure everyone remembers this one
Michaels also has the facts wrong about a 1988 interview of me by Bob Reiss, in which Reiss asked me to speculate on changes that might happen in New York City in 40 years assuming CO2 doubled in amount. Michaels has it as 20 years, not 40 years, with no mention of doubled CO2. Reiss verified this fact to me, but he later sent the message:
“I went back to my book and re-read the interview I had with you. I am embarrassed to say that although the book text is correct, in remembering our original conversation, during a casual phone interview with a Salon magazine reporter in 2001 I was off in years. What I asked you originally at your office window was for a prediction of what Broadway would look like in 40 years, not 20. But when I spoke to the Salon reporter 10 years later probably because I’d been watching the predictions come true, I remembered it as a 20 year question.“

Phil's Dad
July 16, 2011 11:04 am

Within a century
“Arctic System on Trajectory to New, Seasonally Ice-Free State” Overpeck, Jonathan T
And our old friend from the BBC in 2007 gave it 60 years
“The projection is that within about 60 years, there will be no summer ice at all on the Arctic Ocean.” Richard Black, BBC News. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4315968.stm
How about a few decades from 2009
“Arctic Ocean could be ice-free in late summer in only a few decades,…”
Bo, J.; Hall, A.; Qu, X. (2009). Nature Geoscience 2 (5): 341
Or from this month a similar 19 years to go
“The extent [of the ice cover] is going down, but it is also thinning. So a weather pattern that formerly would melt some ice now gets rid of much more. There will be ups and downs, but we are on track to see an ice-free summer by 2030. It is an overall downward spiral.” Mark Serreze, director of the NSIDC.
Although a couple of years earlier the same guy said 10 years
And from 2007, 5-6 years to go (that’s now!)
Northern polar waters could be ice-free in summers within just 5-6 years Professor Wieslaw Maslowski told an American Geophysical Union meeting. “…you can argue that may be our projection of 2013 is already too conservative.”

John Whitman
July 16, 2011 11:04 am

FreshNor says,
“”””Projecting the trend into the future indicates that [Artic] autumn could become near ice free between 2011 and 2016 (Maslowski, 2009).”””
FreshNor consortium: Danish Climate Centre, DMI Rossby Centre, SMHI (Sweden), Iceland Meteorological Institute, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (Norway), Greenland Institute of Natural Resources.
Their link: http://freshnor.dmi.dk/handout_freshnor.pdf
Hope that helps.

July 16, 2011 11:12 am

Might I suggest running this list of articles through a duplicate link checker when it is finished? That would probably save some time and eliminate any double posts that might have slipped past.

Luther Wu
July 16, 2011 11:13 am

Maslowski’s “study” (cited above) was probably the most famous alarmist screed, predicting total melt by 2013. He’s moved that up a bit to a ‘best guess’ of 2016 (+/- 3yrs).
Better hurry.

July 16, 2011 11:21 am

Here are the Hansen model output, which are a type of prediction.
It looks pretty good if the calendar said 2007, but it doesn’t.
Here are the SR4 Projections
They have already “jumped the shark” and they are young.
It looks to me like thy predicted 4. ° C temperature rise between 2000 and 2011 which didn’t happen. Did it ?

John Campbell
July 16, 2011 11:25 am
July 16, 2011 11:27 am

I would like to see a whole range of failed predictions not just Ice Free arctic ones.
Alarmists are terrible swami’s and it is fun to tweak their tail.
They have predicted 100 out of the past 0 catastrophe’s .

David, UK
July 16, 2011 11:29 am

Of course, none of these dates are predictions. No, they’re merely projections (definition of projection: n. forecast; guestimation; similar to a prediction, but one that can be announced with utter confidence and absolutely no accountability).
So, cue Swedish poodle-rockers Europe with their hit “The final Countdown” (to ice-free Arctic summers):
By 2105 (published 2005):
By 2060-2080 (published 2009):
By 2040 (published 2006):
By 2030 (published 2011):
By 2020 (published 2010):
By 2019 (published 2009):
By 2015 (published 2008 and updated 2010):
By 2012 (!) (published 2007 – the original Associated Press story has been removed, but the story is still found on an alarmist blog here):
Now look at the watch… LOOK, I tells yer!.. you are feeling sleepy… your eyelids are very heavy… you’re going back in time… back… back… back…
By 2000 (published 1973):
By 1989 (published 1969)
By 125000 BC (published 2008 – OK, not a prediction, so probably right)

Mike Ozanne
July 16, 2011 11:37 am

Haunting the library for 19/1/2011 quotes Hanson predicting an IFA in “the next couple of decades”

July 16, 2011 11:39 am

The Arctic may not yet be ice free as predicted, but it’s probably all rotten ice anyway.

July 16, 2011 11:40 am

Article from 1873 discussing open water in the Arctic Ocean and that they believed the north pole was actually ice free.
I love the old newspaper records of the poles since they did not yet know that they should not dispute the computer models. (oracles? gore-acles?)

July 16, 2011 11:48 am

It’s all about where you go to look for what you’re looking for, so in your case try scholar.google.com with the actual phrase: “ice free arctic”, and you’ll get a wealth of hippie doom and gloom information about the arctic ice. My first rendered 20 links covering, in various degrees of interest, 1966 to 2009.
The paper in the Journal of Geophysical Research, from 1966: The Heat Budgets of an Ice-Free and an Ice-Covered Arctic Ocean, by Donn and Shaw, seems befitting.

July 16, 2011 11:52 am

Science News
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Ice-Free Arctic Ocean Possible In 30 Years, Not 90 As Previously Estimated
ScienceDaily (Apr. 3, 2009) — A nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in the summer may happen three times sooner than scientists have estimated. New research says the Arctic might lose most of its ice cover in summer in as few as 30 years instead of the end of the century.
Arctic Largely Ice Free in Summer Within Ten Years?
John Roach
for National Geographic News
October 15, 2009
The Arctic Ocean could be largely ice free in summer within a decade, scientists announced today—the latest in a stream of wildly varying predictions.
Page last updated at 10:40 GMT, Wednesday, 12 December 2007
Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013’
By Jonathan Amos
Science reporter, BBC News, San Francisco
Scientists in the US have presented one of the most dramatic forecasts yet for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice.
Their latest modelling studies indicate northern polar waters could be ice-free in summers within just 5-6 years.
It’s a blog.
Arctic Ocean ‘will be ice-free within 20 years’
By Daily Mail Reporter
Last updated at 9:36 AM on 15th October 2009
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Global warming will leave the Arctic Ocean ice-free during the summer within 20 years, raising sea levels and harming wildlife, a leading British polar scientist said today.
The changes will mean the top of the Earth will appear blue rather than white when photographed from space
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1220512/Arctic-Ocean-ice-free-20-years.html#ixzz1SIEjMfck
[EOS, 2005]
If the rapid melting of the ice in the Arctic continues, the perennial ice will
disappear by the end of this century. The consequences of an ice-free Arctic will
be particularly dramatic for its biodiversity.
By Murray Wardrop
8:55AM GMT 15 Dec 2009
Speaking at the Copenhagen climate change summit, Mr. Gore said new computer modelling suggests there is a 75 per cent chance of the entire polar ice cap melting during the summertime by 2014.
However, he faced embarrassment last night after Dr Wieslav Maslowski, the climatologist whose work the prediction was based on, refuted his claims.
Alaska Science Forum December 13, 2006
“In the model, the ice is stable until about 2025, and then boom, it goes,” she said.

e. c. cowan
July 16, 2011 11:54 am

“Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013’ ……….By Jonathan Amos
Science reporter, BBC News, San Francisco 12 December 2007
Scientists in the US have presented one of the most dramatic forecasts yet for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice.
Their latest modelling studies indicate northern polar waters could be ice-free in summers within just 5-6 years. ..Professor Wieslaw Maslowski told an American Geophysical Union meeting that previous projections had underestimated the processes now driving ice loss.
Summer melting this year reduced the ice cover to 4.13 million sq km, the smallest ever extent in modern times.
Remarkably, this stunning low point was not even incorporated into the model runs of Professor Maslowski and his team, which used data sets from 1979 to 2004 to constrain their future projections.

e. c. cowan
July 16, 2011 11:57 am

Ice-Free Arctic Summers Likely Sooner Than Expected April 2, 2009
Summers in the Arctic may be ice-free in as few as 30 years, not at the end of the century as previously expected. The updated forecast is the result of a new analysis of computer models coupled with the most recent summer ice measurements. ….“The Arctic is changing faster than anticipated,” said James Overland, an oceanographer at NOAA’s Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory and co-author of the study,………Overland and his co-author, Muyin Wang, a University of Washington research scientist with the Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean in Seattle, analyzed projections from six computer models, including three with sophisticated sea ice physics capabilities. That data was then combined with observations of summer sea ice loss in 2007 and 2008…..The area covered by summer sea ice is expected to decline from its current 4.6 million square kilometers (about 1.8 million square miles) to about 1 million square kilometers (about 390,000 square miles) – a loss approximately two-fifths the size of the continental U.S. Much of the sea ice would remain in the area north of Canada and Greenland and decrease between Alaska and Russia in the Pacific Arctic………..The Arctic is often called the ‘Earth’s refrigerator’ because the sea ice helps cool the planet by reflecting the sun’s radiation back into space,” said Wang. “With less ice, the sun’s warmth is instead absorbed by the open water, contributing to warmer temperatures in the water and the air.”

Mac the Knife
July 16, 2011 12:06 pm

Sen. Kerry Predicts ‘Ice-Free Arctic’ In ‘5 or 10 Years’
Speaking at a town hall-style meeting promoting climate change legislation on Thursday, Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) predicted there will be "an ice-free Arctic" in "five or 10 years."
Thursday, July 22, 2010
Ice-free Arctic could be here in 23 years
The Guardian, Wednesday 5 September 2007 Dr Serreze (US National Snow and Ice Data Centre at Colorado University in Denver ) said: “If you asked me a couple of years ago when the Arctic could lose all of its ice, then I would have said 2100, or 2070 maybe. But now I think that 2030 is a reasonable estimate. It seems that the Arctic is going to be a very different place within our lifetimes, and certainly within our children’s lifetimes.”
Arctic’s First Ice-Free Summer Possible Even This Year
June 27, 2008
Satellite data gathered by the University of Colorado’s National Snow and Ice Data Center showed that young sea ice, which is no more than about 60 inches deep and much more susceptible to melting away, now makes up 72 percent of the Arctic ice sheet.
Andy Mahoney, a center researcher, has pinpointed this year in particular as having the “greatest chance” of being ice-free.
Arctic to be ice-free in summer in 20 years: scientist
Thu Oct 15, 2009 2:37pm EDT LONDON (Reuters) – Global warming will leave the Arctic Ocean ice-free during the summer within 20 years, raising sea levels and harming wildlife such as seals and polar bears, a leading British polar scientist said on Thursday.
Peter Wadhams, professor of ocean physics at the University of Cambridge, said much of the melting will take place within a decade, although the winter ice will stay for hundreds of years.
Arctic ice ‘could be gone in five years’
5:01PM GMT 12 Dec 2007
And Nasa climate scientist Jay Zwally said: “At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions.” http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/3318239/Arctic-ice-could-be-gone-in-five-years.html
Ice-free Arctic in summer seen in 7 years
December 14, 2007|By Laurie Goering
Warning that the pace of climate change is quickly accelerating beyond previous scientific predictions, meteorologists predicted Thursday at UN climate talks in Bali that the Arctic could be ice-free in summer within seven years, rather than the half-century once expected. ….. The pace of melting of sea ice has been “dramatic,” said Michel Jarraud, secretary general of the UN agency, noting that the extent of Arctic summer sea ice has fallen 23 percent in just two years.
New warning on Arctic sea ice melt
4/7/2011 Scientists who predicted a few years ago that Arctic summers could be ice-free by 2013 now say summer sea ice will probably be gone in this decade. The original prediction, made in 2007, gained Wieslaw Maslowski’s team a deal of criticism from some of their peers. Now they are working with a new computer model – compiled partly in response to those criticisms – that produces a “best guess” date of 2016.
Arctic Ice Gone By 2015 – First Time in One Million Years Dec 13 2008 (IPS)
“Things are happening much faster in the Arctic. I think it will be summer ice-free by 2015,” said David Barber, an Arctic climatologist at the University of Manitoba. http://stephenleahy.net/2008/12/30/arctic-ice-gone-2015-first-time-in-a-million-years/

e. c. cowan
July 16, 2011 12:07 pm

Ice-Free Arctic Ocean May Not Be of Much Use in Soaking Up Carbon Dioxide
ScienceDaily (Aug. 3, 2010) — The summer of 2010 has been agonizingly hot in much of the continental U.S., and the record-setting temperatures have refocused attention on global warming. Scientists have been looking at ways the Earth might benefit from natural processes to balance the rising heat, and one process had intrigued them, a premise that melting ice at the poles might allow more open water that could absorb carbon dioxide, one of the major compounds implicating in warming. ……Now, though, in research just published in the journal Science and led by a University of Georgia biogeochemist, that idea may be one more dead end. In fact, a survey of waters in the Canada Basin, which extends north of Alaska to the North Pole, shows that its value as a potential carbon dioxide “sink” may be short-lived at best and minor in terms of what the planet will need to avoid future problems.
“The Canada Basin and entire Arctic Ocean are still taking up carbon dioxide,” said Wei-Jun Cai, a professor in the department of marine biology in UGA’s Franklin College of Arts and Sciences and lead author of the study. “But our research shows that as the ice melts, the carbon dioxide in the water very quickly reaches equilibrium with the atmosphere, so its use as a place to store CO2 declines dramatically and quickly. We never really understood how limited these waters would be in terms of their usefulness in soaking up carbon dioxide.”
The carbon dioxide level in the Earth’s atmosphere has increased dramatically since the industrial revolution, and around 30 percent of that CO2 has been absorbedby the oceans. That has been the good news. The bad news is that it increases the acidification of the seas, causing changes in conditions for the growth of all life forms.
Melting in the planet’s Arctic zone has been dramatic in the past three years. A recent paper predicted that the Arctic Ocean would be ice-free during summer within 30 years, Cai noted. Researchers in years past had predicted that increased areas of open water in the Arctic, while troublesome in many ways, might at least sequester increasing amounts of carbon dioxide because of summertime ice melts.
“This prediction, however, was made based on observations of very low surface water carbon dioxide levels,” said Cai, “from either highly productive ocean margin areas or basin areas under earlier ice-covered conditions before the recent major ice retreat.”
…..an international team of scientists in the summer of 2008 boarded the retrofitted Chinese research vessel Xue Long (Snow Dragon) for a three-month research voyage………..What Cai and colleagues found was that as greater areas of ice melt each summer, the Canada Basin’s potential as a CO2 sink will diminish dramatically mainly because of the rapid uptake of CO2 from the atmosphere. And because of this carbon dioxide uptake, the waters become quite acidic and “a poor environment for calcium-carbonate shell-bearing marine organisms,” Cai said.
“One of the take-away lessons of this research is that we can’t expect the oceans to do the job of helping offset global warming in the short term,” said Cai.
Cai’s work is supported by the National Science Foundation and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Allan Harrison
July 16, 2011 12:11 pm
John Whitman
July 16, 2011 12:13 pm

In the paper “A Sea Ice Free Summer Arctic Within 30 Years?” published in the April 3, 2009 edition of Geophysical Research Letters, authors J.E. Overland and Muyin Wang say,
“”””[10] Our expected time frame of ~30 years to reach a September sea ice free Arctic is based on current conditions in the Arctic and information from the currently available set of fully coupled CMIP3 atmosphere-ocean-ice General Circulation Models (GCMs).””””

Bud Caldwell
July 16, 2011 12:16 pm

Here are two goodies:
http://articles.cnn.com/2008-06-27/world/north.pole.melting_1_mark-serreze-arctic-sea-ice-national-snow?_s=PM:WORLD CNN says “ice Free” in Summer 2008
Then Sen. Kerry opines: ‘Ice free in 5 to 10 years”
But it was “ice free” 3 M years ago!

July 16, 2011 12:19 pm

Just to make sure you don’t forget the April 2009 WUWT article at

July 16, 2011 12:21 pm

Arctic ice-free? Too easy. How about this one:
“An ice-free Antarctica?”
Collapse of East Antarctic Ice sheet, 100+ years
“Climate Warming Affects Antarctic Ice Sheet Stability”: ScienceDaily (Mar. 22, 2009)
Melting of West Antarctic Ice sheet
“The Future of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet” no time scale given, http://geology.com/research/west-antarctic-ice-sheet.shtml
How about the Martian Arctic?
“Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says”
National Geographic News, February 28, 2007; http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/02/070228-mars-warming.html
Probably not terribly relevant, but different!

John in NZ
July 16, 2011 12:27 pm

I searched for ‘ice free Arctic by” and was prompted with”ice free Arctic by 2030″ then
“ice free Arctic by 2015” and then “ice free Arctic by 2013”
This means further out in the future the prediction is, the more hits on google.

Allan Harrison
July 16, 2011 12:28 pm

If I’ve doubled up I apologize :http://news.google.com/newspapers
Maybe this is all the link you will need: http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/bad-weather/

July 16, 2011 12:34 pm

Ok. This was just entertaining, so I scrolled through the thread and snagged the dates spotted.
I didn’t count multiples since I had no idea if they were referencing identical studies. For a range, picked middle date, for “in 10 years” just added 10 to publication. This is of course excessive precision, but this is just for fun.
1989 2000 2002 2008 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2019 2020 2025 2029 2030 2031 2037 2039 2040 2067 2070 2105
1959+”not too many decades”

Al Gored
July 16, 2011 12:34 pm

Well, every example I know of is already listed!
What an exellent crowd to source! Congratulations.
Looks like there may be something to work with, to put it very mildly

Old woman of the north
July 16, 2011 12:39 pm

This is slightly off topic in that it is predictions of snow falls in SE Australia up to 2050 by our Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO). The attached slide show is based upon their models! Published in 2002.

steptoe fan
July 16, 2011 12:39 pm
July 16, 2011 12:45 pm

NYT May,15 1932
“Within 30,000 to 40,000 years.”
The NYT Has Been Predicting Polar Ice Melt for 128 Years
Funny – the New York Times has been reporting on the Polar ice melt for over 100 years, and usually blaming it on man. The dumbest is the 1959 story of the ice disappearing – which was followed by 20 years of Global Cooling. From the Daily Telegraph (Australia), Eternal Melting:
Note: lots of goodies in this one!

Old woman of the north
July 16, 2011 12:46 pm

Here is another reference to Antarctic ice melting.
I forgot to add in post above that the snow in SE Australia this year is the best for a long time and started very early too.

July 16, 2011 12:53 pm

NSIDC-Researcher Walt Meier: 2030
Article from 2008-09-18
Leif Toudal Pedersen from Danish National Spacecenter: 2040
Article from 2007-09-18
The same month and day but different year.

Gordon Oehler
July 16, 2011 12:56 pm

The Atlantic, Scott Borgerson, Visiting Fellow for Ocean Governance at the Council on Foreign Relations. 2008/11
BEFORE OUR EYES, the Arctic is changing from an impenetrable wasteland into an oceanic crossroads. The polar ice cap has lost up to half its thickness near the North Pole in just the past six years and may have passed a tipping point; it is now shrinking at more than three times the rate predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change only four years ago. At the current pace, the Arctic may well be ice-free in summer by 2013.

July 16, 2011 1:01 pm

Time May 17 1954
“The Arctic icecap, covering some 3,000,000 square miles from Greenland to Northeastern Siberia, is the source of cold winds and ocean currents that affect the climate of the northern hemisphere. Last week Edward L. Gorton Jr. of the U.S. Navy Hydrographic Office released the first results of a continuing analysis of the polar wasteland.
Navy oceanographers found that one-tenth of the ice melts each summer, and the ice layer’s thickness is reduced to two or three meters. At present, the pack contains only 6,500 cubic miles of ice (barely enough to cover the state of Texas with a 125-ft. layer), and it is steadily shrinking. Since 1900, the thickness of the polar icecap has decreased by three feet because of higher general temperatures.
If the trend continues, predicts Gorton, the Arctic Ocean will eventually lose its permanent ice, freezing only in winter; at that point, none of the ice will reach the hard-core polar stage. The Navy’s tentative long-range forecast: “Great changes in climate will take place. This change . . . may foreshadow the end of the current ice age, but no timetable is set for this development.””

Claude Harvey
July 16, 2011 1:05 pm
Håkan B
July 16, 2011 1:11 pm

What’s the problem? Think positive!

Mr. Alex
July 16, 2011 1:12 pm

by 2000:
by 2070:
by 2013 and 2008:
by 2029:
by 2019:
by 2039:
by 2015:
comment on decreased data capture from 2000:
by 2100:
by 2050:
by 2041:
by 2040:
as early as 2010:

July 16, 2011 1:12 pm

Just put it on http://www.Digg.com

Peter Walsh
July 16, 2011 1:23 pm

Peter Walsh, Dublin, Ireland: I posted this on Bishop hill a few days ago.

July 16, 2011 1:26 pm
Harry Heaton
July 16, 2011 1:30 pm

Science 17 September 2004:
Vol. 305 no. 5691 p. 1693
DOI: 10.1126/science.305.5691.1693a
Signs of a Warm, Ice-Free Arctic
“..meters of mud cored should be a record of the last ice-free Arctic summers of millions of years ago, conditions that may return in the greenhouse world of 2100.”
Science 13 August 2004:
Vol. 305 no. 5686 p. 919
DOI: 10.1126/science.305.5686.919b
An Ice-Free Arctic?
“Their simulations predict that the Arctic will be almost free of sea ice during the summers toward the end of the this century (for another climate prediction for the late 21st century, see Meehl and Tebaldi, this issue, p. 994). — HJS”
Tellus A56, 328 (2004).
Science 16 March 2007:
Vol. 315 no. 5818 pp. 1533-1536
DOI: 10.1126/science.1139426
Perspectives on the Arctic’s Shrinking Sea-Ice Cover
“Rates of ice loss both for the past few decades and those projected through the 21st century nevertheless vary widely between individual models. Our analyses show that in the IPCC AR4 models driven with the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B emissions scenario (in which atmospheric CO2 reaches 720 parts per million by 2100), a near-complete or complete loss (to less than 1 × 106 km2) of September ice will occur anywhere from 2040 to well beyond the year 2100, depending on the model and the particular run for that model”
Science 18 June 2010:
Vol. 328 no. 5985 pp. 1523-1528
DOI: 10.1126/science.1189930
The Impact of Climate Change on the World’s Marine Ecosystems
“(D) The loss of summer sea ice by 2040 in the Arctic will have a strong impact on a range of dependent organisms, both above and below the ice.”

Peter Walsh
July 16, 2011 1:31 pm

Moderator, I often wonder why any brief posts I make here are always subject to moderation.
I am not a troll, but just a layman where science is concerned but one who is convinced that AGW is a scam. That is why I come here, to WUWT, to read new posts and comments.
Peter Walsh, Dublin.
[Reply: Please don’t take it personally. All comments are subject to moderation. ~dbs, mod.]

July 16, 2011 1:46 pm

Dunno if it will help any, but heres my contribution.
I do recommend that if anyone has an account at LexisNexis that they might be able to do a more encompassing search.
“In 2006, the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) predicted that we might see an ice-free Arctic by the end of the century.
Now it seems that the panel’s prediction may come true much sooner than expected, perhaps within a decade. ”
“Watching the Arctic Melt Away” ANGUS HINES May 12, 2008
“We could have an ice-free Arctic by the year 2070, by the year 2080. In the last few years those predictions have come way, way in towards the present and now we’re saying maybe 2030, maybe 2020.”
Program Transcript – Marian Wilkinson’s “The Tipping Point” DR TED SCAMBOS 04/08/2008
“Researchers fear sea levels could be rising much faster than first thought with some scientists predicting an ice-free Arctic by the summer of 2100. ”
“Rapidly Melting Glaciers Fuel Rising Sea Levels” Unnamed Reporter – Sept. 24, 2007
‘”There may well be an ice-free Arctic by the middle of the century,” Christopher Rapley, director of the British Antarctic Survey, told the seminar, accusing the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of underestimating the melt.’
“Islands emerge as Arctic ice shrinks to record low” Alister Doyle – Aug 20, 2007

July 16, 2011 1:47 pm

NASA James Hansen said, “We will lose all the ice in the polar ice cap in a couple of decades,…”

July 16, 2011 1:54 pm

Arctic Sea Ice Gone in Summer Within Five Years?
Seth Borenstein in Washington
Associated Press
December 12, 2007
This week, after reviewing his own new data, NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally said: “At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions.”
Arctic Ice Cap Could be Gone by the Summer
by Jeremy Elton Jacquot, Los Angeles on 03. 2.08
Wed Jul 13, 2011 at 04:35 AM PDT
Arctic Ocean ice: gone in 7 years
by Keith Pickering
I’ve added a quadratic fit to the data, and the curve hits zero in about 2018, just seven years from now. Given the uncertainty in the data, the actual zero point could be a few years either way from that projection – but probably not by much. …
Not only is the volume falling off a cliff (declining, and accelerating as it declines), but we’ve only got a few years left before we hit zero sea ice volume in the Arctic Ocean at the end of summer.
Wed Dec 13, 2006 at 03:49 AM PST
Arctic Ice: Going, Going … Gone?
by DarkSyde for Daily Kos
ABC News — A team of scientists from the United States and Canada has found new evidence about the rapid melting of ice in the Arctic. Data presented at a meeting of the American Geophysical Union suggests all year-round ice could disappear by the year 2040. The scientists also believe recent research shows a tipping point which would trigger a rapid melting is fast approaching.
Arctic ice ‘gone in 30 years’
Last updated 09:20 03/04/2009
Arctic sea ice is melting so fast most of it could be gone in 30 years.

The new report by Muyin Wang of the Joint Institute for the Study of Atmosphere and Ocean and James E Overland of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, appears in Friday’s edition of the journal Geophysical Research Letters.
They expect the area covered by summer sea ice to decline from about 2.8 million square miles (7.25 million sq km) normally to 620,000 square miles within 30 years.
Stephen Leahy, International Environmental Journalist
QUEBEC CITY, Canada, Dec 13 2008 (IPS)
Arctic Ice Gone By 2015 – First Time in One Million Years
[update Apr 29 2010: “When the sea ice melts, more heat is absorbed by the water. The warmer water then heats the atmosphere above it…this feedback system has warmed the atmosphere at a faster rate.” Confirms loss of sea ice is rapidly warming Arctic — Study in Nature yesterday. – SL]

Dan Miller
August 18, 2009
Berkeley Cybersalon (video of presentation)
Melting Trends: Arctic Ice Completely Gone by 2020?
0:36 – The ice: “it’s going to be all gone in the next five or ten years.”
Saturday 16 July 2011
Arctic ice could be gone by 2030
Arctic sea ice melted over the summer to cover the third smallest area on record, US researchers have said, warning that global warming could leave the region ice free by September 2030.
Mark Serreze, director of the NSIDC, said…
Arctic ice was disappearing by 11 per cent per decade, he said.
“Our thinking is that by 2030 or so, if you went out to the Arctic on the first of September, you probably won’t see any ice at all. It will look like a blue ocean, we’re losing it that quickly,” he said.
Arctic ice ‘could be gone in five years’
By agencies
“The Arctic is screaming,” said Mark Serreze, senior scientist at the US government’s Snow and Ice Data Centre in Colorado.
Feel floes (gone by 2016)
by Gareth on April 27, 2010
… the Arctic could be effectively ice-free in summer within ten years — possibly as soon as 2013.
Five years (threnody for Arctic sea ice)
by Gareth on October 16, 2010
Bottom line: if the relationship between ice volume and extent evident in the NSIDC and PIOMAS data over the last 21 years continues in the near future, then the Arctic will be effectively ice-free in late summer sometime between 2015 and 2020
Most Arctic Sea Ice ‘Gone In Decade’
By Tom Lowe
16 October, 2009
The Independent
The Arctic Ocean will be an “open sea” almost entirely free from ice within a decade, the latest data released today indicates.
Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013’
By Jonathan Amos
Science reporter, BBC News, San Francisco
Professor Maslowski’s group, which includes co-workers at Nasa and the Institute of Oceanology, Polish Academy of Sciences (PAS), is well known for producing modelled dates that are in advance of other teams.
New warning on Arctic sea ice melt
Richard Black By Richard Black Environment correspondent, BBC News
Scientists who predicted a few years ago that Arctic summers could be ice-free by 2013 now say summer sea ice will probably be gone in this decade.
The original prediction, made in 2007, gained Wieslaw Maslowski’s team a deal of criticism from some of their peers.
Now they are working with a new computer model – compiled partly in response to those criticisms – that produces a “best guess” date of 2016.
Arctic sea ice gone in 30 years — what will become of wildlife?
We knew polar bears were in trouble, what with the Arctic ice they require for survival disappearing at an alarming rate. …
A report on the issue, by Muyin Wang of the Joint Institute for the Study of Atmosphere and Ocean and James E. Overland of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, will appear in Friday’s edition of the journal Geophysical Research Letters.
They expect the area covered by summer sea ice to decline from about 2.8 million square miles to 620,000 square miles within 30 years. That represents serious shrinkage, with frightening implications for wildlife and humans.
Multiyear Arctic ice is effectively gone: expert
By David Ljunggren
OTTAWA | Thu Oct 29, 2009 12:01pm EDT
But David Barber, Canada’s Research Chair in Arctic System Science at the University of Manitoba, said the ice was melting at an extraordinarily fast rate.
“We are almost out of multiyear sea ice in the northern hemisphere,” he said in a presentation in Parliament.
Video: Catlin Arctic Survey – October 2009
“the North Pole will be an open sea during the summer months within twenty years.”
Thursday, June 3, 2010
When will Arctic ice be gone?
The short answer, before I give you all the qualifiers needed to make sense of it, is 2035, give or take 7 years.
The Arctic Perennial Sea Ice Could Be Gone by End of the Century
Arctic ice gone in 20 years says leading expert
15/10/09 19:12 CET
The Arctic Ocean will be ice-free in the summertime within 20 years, according to one of the world’s leading experts in the field. Professor Peter Wadham’s analysis was based on an extensive survey of polar ice.
Melting Sea Ice Forcing Walruses Ashore
Dan Joling, Associated Press
Oct. 8, 2007
According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center at the University of Colorado at Boulder, September sea ice was 39 percent below the long-term average from 1979 to 2000. Sea ice cover is in a downward spiral and may have passed the point of no return, with a possible ice-free Arctic Ocean by summer 2030, senior scientist Mark Serreze said.
Rate of Arctic Ice Melt Each Day Now Equals the Size of West Virginia
by Dr. Tim Ball on June 8, 2011
Polar ice cap gone by 2030?
Posted by: JeffMasters, 1:39 PM GMT on September 07, 2007
In an interview published yesterday in The Guardian Dr. Mark Serreze, and Arctic ice expert with the National Snow and Ice Data Center, said: “If you asked me a couple of years ago when the Arctic could lose all of its ice, then I would have said 2100, or 2070 maybe. But now I think that 2030 is a reasonable estimate.
Most Arctic sea ice ‘gone in decade’
By Tom Lowe, Press Association
Thursday, 15 October 2009
The Arctic Ocean will be an “open sea” almost entirely free from ice within a decade, the latest data released today indicates. …
Peter Wadhams, Professor of Ocean Physics and Head of the Polar Physics Group, has spearheaded the team analysing the results.
He said: “The summer ice cover in the Arctic will completely vanish in 20 to 30 years time. There won’t be any sea ice there at all
“In much less time than that, the ice in summer will be shrinking back to this last bastion north of Greenland and Ellesmere Island, so within a decade we will see a largely ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer.
Polar Ice Cap Could Be Gone in 5 Years, Gore Says
Dec 14, 2009 – 10:17 AM
Al Gore has told the U.N. climate conference that new data suggests the Arctic polar ice cap may disappear in the summertime as soon as five to seven years from now.\
Currently, the polar ice caps are shrinking, most likely as a result of global warming. So what does this mean? Fewer penguins? A smaller backyard for Santa? Unfortunately the impact is much bigger than that. The sea level has risen six to eight inches (15 to 20 cm) in the last 100 years, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Some studies suggest that sea levels could rise as much as 20 feet by end of the century. …
Polar Ice Caps – What Can You Do? …
Tell your parents what you know about global warming and the environment. It’s important that they know as much as you do so they can vote for politicians who care about the environment.
Better World Blog
Melting Trends : Arctic Ice Completely Gone by 2020?
May 24, 2011 10:17:00 PM by a Citizen of the World
Dan Miller
August 18, 2009
Berkeley Cybersalon (video of presentation) Dan Miller
0:36 – The ice: “it’s going to be all gone in the next five or ten years.”
News & Perspective from the Center for Environmental Journalism
Gore: polar ice caps will melt completely “in just a few years”
posted on March 15, 2009,
Update, Sunday 3/15/09:
Evidently, Gore has misspoken about polar ice melting before. See this Youtube video in which he says the entire north polar ice cap may be gone in five years…
August 28, 2009 at 12:29 pm
Arctic Summer Ice Gone by 2012
In 2007, scientists examined the record ice melt over the Arctic to attempt to assess the cause and to identify if it was a realistic indicator of future happenings or just a blip.
Revised estimates confirm that the accelerated melt is continuing and within 3 years there will be no summer ice in the Arctic.
Arctic sea ice: going, going, gone
28 October 2008
In autumn 2007, sea-ice reached its lowest point ever recorded. 2008 came close to surpassing this record. Computer models predict the Arctic may be ice-free in summer by 2030.
The Vanishing of the Arctic Ice Cap
By Eric McLamb
Not only is the Arctic ice cap shrinking, it is shrinking at a pace that places its disappearance two to three decades ahead of the gloomiest previous forecasts. It is now generally predicted that the Arctic ice cap will totally disappear in 20 – 25 years, …
December 11, 2007
Polar ice gone by 2012?
source: http://www.cnn.com/2007/TECH/science/12/11/arctic.melt.ap/index.html
This week, after reviewing his own new data, NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally said: “At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions.”
Source of above article. Missing.
Arctic ice to vanish in summer, report says
updated 6:55 p.m. EDT, Thu October 15, 2009
# Story Highlights
# New report says Arctic sea ice will largely disappear in summer within a decade
# Survey captured latest data on ice thickness in Northern part of Beaufort Sea
# Measurements show the ice-floes surveyed were on average 1.8 meters thick
# Scientists warn that Arctic ice melt is likely to set off “powerful climate feedbacks”
Arctic’s vanishing sea ice presents polar bear with a new danger – grizzlies
By Steve Connor, Science Editor
Thursday, 16 December 2010
“The Arctic Ocean is predicted to be ice-free in summer before the end of the century, removing a continent-sized barrier to interbreeding…”
Large expanses of Arctic ice melt away in summer heat
Updated 8/9/2009 8:26 PM
At a global conference last March in Copenhagen, scientists declared that climate change is occurring faster than had been anticipated, citing the fast-dying Arctic cap as one example. A month later, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted Arctic summers could be almost ice-free within 30 years, not at the century’s end as earlier predicted.
Arctic ice watchers concerned by warm summer
Last Updated: Monday, August 10, 2009 | 8:29 AM CT
The Associated Press
A month later, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted Arctic summers could be almost ice-free within 30 years, not at the century’s end as earlier predicted

July 16, 2011 1:57 pm

That looks like an ensemble run. Now all we need to do is average it and we should have the date nailed.

July 16, 2011 1:58 pm

Roy UK says:
July 16, 2011 at 10:10 am
And also the ice cap was already gone last year according to this report:

What Fortier actually said was “there will be no sea ice left in the summer in the Arctic Ocean somewhere between 2010 and 2015” and thought that it might be a bit quicker than that. So he’s still looking good.

July 16, 2011 1:59 pm

John Holdren, Canadian Broadcasting Corporation podcast, 2009:
…we could lose the summer sea ice by 2015.
…if you lose the summer sea ice, there are phenomena that could lead you not so very long thereafter to lose the winter sea ice as well. And if you lose that sea ice year round, it’s going to mean drastic climatic change all over the hemisphere.

David A
July 16, 2011 2:13 pm

My absolute favourite and could not be less public
” Another new study, to be presented by U.S. Navy researchers later this week, warns it could happen in as little as 7 years.
Seven years from now”
Now being December 10th 2007
Just 3 more years to make it all disappear Mr Gore

Jeff (of Colorado)
July 16, 2011 2:16 pm

I thought there was a UK project to transcribe/copy the ship logs of Her Majesty’s Navy into a computer database. These would include records far older than the 1817 article that was found. Anyone know something about this? These recods may not be on the Internet yet, but might be available another way in the UK. While not specifically predictions of global warming, they would document a lack of ice in the Arctic.
Any Icelandic sagas that speak to this topic? They could be even older.

July 16, 2011 2:16 pm

Robinson says:
July 16, 2011 at 10:46 am
Ice-free in 2008 (?!!!)
“The set-up for this summer is disturbing,” says Mark Serreze, of the US National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). A number of factors have this year led to most of the Arctic ice being thin and vulnerable as it enters its summer melting season.

However he went on to say: “”There is this thin first-year ice even at the North Pole at the moment,” says Serreze. “This raises the spectre – the possibility that you could become ice free at the North Pole this year.”
Despite its news value in the media, the North Pole being ice free is not in itself significant. To scientists, Serreze points out, “this is just another point on the globe”. What is worrying, though, is the fact that multi-year ice – the stuff that doesn’t melt in the summer – is not piling up as fast as Arctic ice generally is melting.”
Anthony asked for predictions about the Arctic not the vicinity of the North Pole!

Ed Waage
July 16, 2011 2:26 pm

Here is a discussion titled “Arctic Sea Ice decline in the 21st Century” at RealClimate by Cecilia Bitz
Bitz is responding to many of the newspaper articles based upon one of her papers.

July 16, 2011 2:29 pm

Most G-books show something “midcentury.”
But the 2008 UNEP annual report adds,
“…and in late 2007 researchers proposed that the Arctic summer may be ice free by 2013. (Holland and others 2006, Borenstein 2007)”

Don Barnett
July 16, 2011 2:30 pm

NOAA Apr 2,2009
We’ll have an ice free arctic within 30 years….

Gordon Oehler
July 16, 2011 2:34 pm

National Intelligence Council
“Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World”
The National Intelligence Council is the senior-most analytical organization in the Intelligence Community. This report, published in November 2008, says (page 53) without a reference:
“Estimates vary as to when the Arctic is likely to be ice free during the summer. The National Snow and Ice Data Center suggests a seasonally ice-free Arctic by 2060; more current research suggests the date could be as soon as 2013.”

July 16, 2011 2:36 pm

I wish to leave another avenue of inquiry, for your consideration. How about the use of the word “accelerating,” as in accelerating sea rises. Here is my concerns, each accepting the argument that “global warming” is primarily caused by man made ghgs in the past decades:
1. Why would there be accelerating global whatever from warming if the rise in CO2 concentrations has been constant and near linear for decades, as shown in the Mauna Loa readings.
2. Given AGW theory, should it not be true that warming should be decelerating given the emissivity characteristics of the CO2 molecule losing its “power to absorb” (so to speak) logarithmically? Thanks.

Rocky H
July 16, 2011 2:44 pm

Ed Waage,
Your RealClimate link has a comment by Dr Judith Curry:
“While I understand that this blog [RC] is not the forum for detailed scientific explanations…”
WUWT readers already knew that… ≈ : – )

July 16, 2011 2:55 pm

Roy UK says:
July 16, 2011 at 10:04 am
This is one of my book marks:
I think this fits the bill, and you probably already know about it. 🙂

Contains a misquote but the video is no longer available, Anthony asked everyone here to mail him in five years about his prediction, I hope you will to congratulate him on his perspicacity.

July 16, 2011 3:20 pm

Arctic summer could be ice-free by 2040.
Quoting: Dec. 12 issue of Geophysical Research Letters, indicate that if greenhouse gases continue being released at their current rate, most of the Arctic basin will be ice free in September by 2040.
Citing lead author, Marika Holland, a scientists from NCAR
(“updated 12/11/2006 5:42:21 PM ET”)

July 16, 2011 3:21 pm

I count 245 References. I think this has been going for about 12 hours. That’s 20 references per hour.
By tomorrow, Anthony, you should have close to 500. I might suggest an equally hilarious exercise would be to find out how many years out (starting in 1954, with the offical start of Hot Fusion research) “practical fusion power” is placed. Typically a “new major advancement” is made about once every 3 to 5 years. At that point it is said with AUTHORITY that ‘break even” will come in 5 to 10 years, and power production in 15 to 20 years. It’s a GREAT gambit, that has them puppies “fed” for almost 60 years, to a levelized cost of $1,000,000,000 per year. (All for nothing.)

July 16, 2011 3:23 pm

1869 : Arctic Summers Believed To Be “almost free of ice”
Cited Source: http://paperspast.natlib.govt.nz/
(Posted on February 23, 2011 by stevengoddard)

July 16, 2011 3:28 pm

Arctic Summer Could be Ice-Free by 2105
Cited Source: Jonathan Overpeck, chair of the National Science Foundation’s Arctic System Science Committee. (no link provided)
Bjorn Carey; Date: 23 August 2005 Time: 09:22 AM ET

July 16, 2011 3:32 pm

Ice-Free Arctic Ocean Possible In 30 Years, Not 90 As Previously Estimated
Story Source: reprinted (editorial adaptations by ScienceDaily) from materials provided by University of Washington.
Journal Reference: Wang, M., and J. E. Overland. A sea ice free summer Arctic within 30 years? Geophysical Research Letters, 2009; 36 (7): L07502 DOI: 10.1029/2009GL037820
ScienceDaily (Apr. 3, 2009)

July 16, 2011 3:39 pm

Arctic Largely Ice Free in Summer Within Ten Years?
by John Roach
Source: sea-ice expert Peter Wadhams, og (sic) the University of Cambridge in England
Added Quotation: “Serreze’s group in Boulder, though, is on record saying the Arctic’s summer sea ice will fully melt around 2030. Other groups have put the ice-free date as late as 2100.”
National Geographic News October 15, 2009

July 16, 2011 3:42 pm

North Pole May Be Ice-Free This Summer
by findingDulcinea Staff
“After a drastic polar meltdown last year, climate scientists say that the Arctic region is primed for the previously unimaginable.”
“The North Pole may be free of ice for the first time in history,” said Canadian climate scientist David Barber to Canwest News Service. “This is a very dramatic change in the High Arctic Climate System.”
Post dated June 26, 2008 02:12 PM

July 16, 2011 3:44 pm

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article767459.ece (no catastrophic prognostications with this one for the ice but bloody funny comments on drowning polar bears……….total bollocks).
http://www.thewe.cc/weplanet/news/water/dramatic_melt_in_arctic_icecape.htm (13/4 pages down……prediction for all gone by 2013).
http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=i3ZWAAAAIBAJ&sjid=2OQDAAAAIBAJ&pg=1581,5524109&dq=heat+wave+north+pole&hl=en (this one says reindeer get hit by lightning caused by artic heating…..almost as good as polar bears drowning).
http://www.lightnet.co.uk/informer/environment/20000820.htm (a rich source of dire catastrophic disastrous prognostication this one).
Right, that’s my pathetic contribution………..hope some of it helps.

Keith Hogan
July 16, 2011 3:46 pm

“At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions.” – NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally, quoted in an article by Associated Press, December 12, 2007, http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/12/071212-AP-arctic-melt.html

July 16, 2011 3:55 pm

I’m thinking, since crowd sourcing is to ease up the work, that maybe crowd sourcing works best with “smaller” communities for generating less work. :p

July 16, 2011 3:56 pm

The google search term
ice free Arctic by “1995..2100”
brings all 24,100,000 pages where the [phrase ‘ice free Artic by’ followed by any year from 1995 through 2100.
1. Dec 2007 “Our projection of 2013 for the removal of ice in summer is not accounting for the last two minima, in 2005 and 2007,” the researcher from the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, explained to the BBC.
“So given that fact, you can argue that may be our projection of 2013 is already too conservative.”
“In the end, it will just melt away quite suddenly. It might not be as early as 2013 but it will be soon, much earlier than 2040.”
Professor Wieslaw Maslowski told an American Geophysical Union
2. same link http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm
“Professor Wadhams said the Arctic was now being set up for further ice loss in the coming years.
“The implication is that this is not a cycle, not just a fluctuation. The loss this year will precondition the ice for the same thing to happen again next year, only worse.
“There will be even more opening up, even more absorption and even more melting.
“In the end, it will just melt away quite suddenly. It might not be as early as 2013 but it will be soon, much earlier than 2040.”
3. Same link http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm
Dr Mark Serreze was asked to give one of the main lectures here at this year’s AGU Fall Meeting.
Discussing the possibility for an open Arctic ocean in summer months, he told the meeting: “A few years ago, even I was thinking 2050, 2070, out beyond the year 2100, because that’s what our models were telling us. But as we’ve seen, the models aren’t fast enough right now; we are losing ice at a much more rapid rate.
“My thinking on this is that 2030 is not an unreasonable date to be thinking of.”
4. Joe Romm repeats the 2013 date at :
Will work on this more later….

July 16, 2011 4:07 pm

I thought I’d try a different angle. I searched Russian sources, since I doubt many people here will search using Russian language keywords. These are leading me to other examples. I’ll put the clearest immediately below.
My first digging….
Проблема освоения Арктики обострилась по причине глобального потепления и таяния льда. Ледяной покров не только сокращается, но и истончается. Ученые не исключают, что в скором времени Арктика вообще может остаться без льда. По прогнозу специалистов, уже летом 2020 года суда смогут свободно плавать в водах Северного Ледовитого океана.
My translation:
The problem with developing the Arctic is made worse because of global warming and melting of the ice. The ice cap not only is shrinking, but is disappearing. Scientists do not reject the idea that in the near future the Arctic in general may be free of ice. Specialists estimate that by the year 2020 vessels will be able to sail freely in the Arctic Ocean.
Almost a date, but not quite.
Доктор биологических наук, почетный полярник Игорь МЕЛЬНИКОВ
Сейчас несомненно, что потепление в обоих полушариях продолжается. Продолжается таяние морского льда и покровных ледников, продолжается деградация вечной мерзлоты, что приводит к высвобождению метана и двуокиси углерода и, как следствие, росту концентрации «парниковых» газов в атмосфере. Чтобы понять и прогнозировать динамику этих процессов, нужны мощные финансовые вливания в мониторинг природы полярных областей. Это нужно и важно понять ответственным лицам, принимающим решения.
My translation:
Doctor of biological sciences, honored polar expert Igor Melnikov
It is indesputable, that warming of both hemispheres is continuing. The melting of sea ice and polar glaciers continues, the degradation of permafrost continues, that will lead to the release of methane and carbon dioxide, and consequently, to an increase in the concentration of “greenhouse” gases in the atmosphere. In order to understand and predict the dynamics of these processes, we need an enabling infusion of funding for monitoring Nature in the polar regions. This is necessary and important for responsible leaders to understand and make decisions.
Тридцатичетырёхстраничная «Стратегия для Арктики на 2011—2020 годы»
Новейшие научные исследования показывают, что последние шесть лет стали самым тёплым периодом в Арктике за всю историю наблюдений. Область снежного покрова и морского льда здесь значительно сократились, а южная граница вечной мерзлоты в России и Канаде сдвинулась на север. В Арктике потепление происходит вдвое быстрее против общемировых показателей. Ожидается, что к 2100 году горные ледники и ледяные покровы здесь потеряют до 30 процентов своей общей массы, а Северный Ледовитый океан в ближайшие 30—40 лет будет практически свободен от льда в летний период.
My translation:
Thirty-four nation “Strategy for the Arctic, 2011-2020”
The latest scientific research indicates that the last six years were the warmest period in the Arctic in the entire history of observation. The area of snow cover and sea ice here has significantly decreased, and the southern edge of permafrost in Russia and Canada has moved north. In the Arctic, warming is occurring twice as fast as the world average. It is expected that by 2100, mountain glaciers and ice cover here will lose up to 30% of their mass, and the Arctic Ocean in next 30 to 40 years will be practically free of ice during summer.

July 16, 2011 4:09 pm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HMS_Resolute_%281850%29 story of the Resolute,1850’s ice ship. From being ice locked, it moved 1900km in 2 years before it was freed. point is that the ice is moving all the time.

July 16, 2011 4:10 pm

I have collected the 236 URLs before 2:44pm into an open office spread sheet. If Anthony is interested I can email it to him.

July 16, 2011 4:13 pm

2008 according to the Norwegian scientist Olav Orheim
Polar ice cap melting away in 2008 ?
“How low will they go? Putting a date on the melting of the Arctic ice cap has been a popular prediction game among scientists of late; in recent months, we’ve heard estimates ranging from 2030 to as early as 2013.”
“The latest salvo comes courtesy of Xinhua, which reports that Olav Orheim, the head of the Norwegian International Polar Year Secretariat, is placing his money on this summer. Noting that its ice sheet had reached a historical low of 3m sq. km last summer – it covered around 7.5m sq. km as recently as 2000 – Orheim told Xinhua that “if Norway’s average temperature this year equals that in 2007, the ice cap in the Arctic will all melt away.”

July 16, 2011 4:28 pm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HMS_Resolute_%281850%29 story of the Resolute,1850’s ice ship. From being ice locked, it moved 1900km in 2 years before it was freed. point is that the ice is moving all the time.
The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA), published in November 2004, was a uniquely detailed study of Arctic climate compiled by 300 scientists over three years. The study found that while temperatures in the Arctic have increased significantly since 1980 (Figure 1), there was also a period in the 1930s and 1940s when temperatures were almost as warm. If one defines the Arctic as lying poleward of 62.5° north latitude (Polyakov, 2003), the 1930s and 1940s were the warmest period in the past 100 years. Looking at Figure 1, one cannot dismiss the possibility that temperatures in the Arctic oscillate in a 50-year period, and we are due for a cooling trend that will take temperatures below normal by 2030.

July 16, 2011 4:42 pm

2006: ice free arctic in 20 years: http://books.google.com/books?id=v_ZR5mYo0FcC&lpg=PA8&dq=%22ice-free%20arctic%22&pg=PA8#v=onepage&q=%22ice-free%20arctic%22&f=false
2005: ice free in summer by 2050 http://books.google.com/books?id=QjM0Hb3423EC&lpg=PA471&dq=arctic%20%22ice-free%20by%22&pg=PA471#v=onepage&q=arctic%20%22ice-free%20by%22&f=false
2009 – by 2060 http://books.google.com/books?id=1q0XeRmYBi8C&pg=PA2&dq=arctic+%22ice-free+by%22&hl=en&ei=ax0iTrenGMu1tgfb462tAw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=3&ved=0CDMQ6AEwAg
2008: Ice free in summer by 2013, ice free year round by 2040; http://books.google.com/books?id=eDkZr3c1uVQC&lpg=PA7&dq=arctic%20%22ice-free%20by%22&pg=PA7#v=onepage&q=arctic%20%22ice-free%20by%22&f=false
2009- in summer by 2105: http://books.google.com/books?id=ZnUl4onKLs8C&pg=PT112&dq=arctic+%22ice-free+by%22&hl=en&ei=ax0iTrenGMu1tgfb462tAw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=10&ved=0CFYQ6AEwCQ
2006: by the end of this century: http://books.google.com/books?id=WYMUXg-6kZ0C&pg=PA35&dq=arctic+%22ice-free+by%22&hl=en&ei=ax0iTrenGMu1tgfb462tAw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=9&ved=0CFEQ6AEwCA
2009, by 2030 : http://books.google.com/books?id=XfTISxCa6SwC&pg=PA17&dq=arctic+%22ice-free+by%22&hl=en&ei=ax0iTrenGMu1tgfb462tAw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=8&ved=0CEwQ6AEwBw
2009, by 2013: http://books.google.com/books?id=QXo68w7QLaYC&pg=PA119&dq=arctic+%22ice-free+by%22&hl=en&ei=Rh8iTv2dApSutwexo8WnAw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=2&ved=0CC4Q6AEwATgK
2006, by the end of the 21st century: http://books.google.com/books?id=o7UcITvgvGsC&pg=PA9&dq=arctic+%22ice-free+by%22&hl=en&ei=Rh8iTv2dApSutwexo8WnAw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=4&ved=0CDgQ6AEwAzgK
2008, by mid century: http://books.google.com/books?id=WIRk6cXggkEC&pg=PA4&dq=arctic+%22ice-free+by%22&hl=en&ei=Rh8iTv2dApSutwexo8WnAw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=5&ved=0CD0Q6AEwBDgK
2011 by 2030: http://books.google.com/books?id=c_omk7wdL_kC&pg=PA23&dq=arctic+%22ice-free+by%22&hl=en&ei=NCAiTv3AEMS9tgeNz-2iAw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=2&ved=0CC8Q6AEwATgU

July 16, 2011 5:09 pm

Hope this helps is some small way: Phil Valentine’s Bullet Points
Since 1895, the media has alternated between global cooling and warming scares during four separate and sometimes overlapping time periods. From 1895 until the 1930’s the media peddled a coming ice age. From the late 1920’s until the 1960’s they warned of global warming. From the 1950’s until the 1970’s they warned us again of a coming ice age. This makes modern global warming the fourth estate’s fourth attempt to promote opposing climate change fears during the last 100 years.
The National Academy of Sciences report reaffirmed the existence of the Medieval Warm Period from about 900 AD to 1300 AD and the Little Ice Age from about 1500 to 1850. Both of these periods occurred long before the invention of the SUV or human industrial activity could have possibly impacted the Earth’s climate. In fact, scientists believe the Earth was warmer than today during the Medieval Warm Period, when the Vikings grew crops in Greenland.
What the climate alarmists and their advocates in the media have continued to ignore is the fact that the Little Ice Age, which resulted in harsh winters which froze New York Harbor and caused untold deaths, ended about 1850. So trying to prove man-made global warming by comparing the well-known fact that today’s temperatures are warmer than during the Little Ice Age is akin to comparing summer to winter to show a catastrophic temperature trend.
Something that the media almost never addresses are the holes in the theory that C02 has been the driving force in global warming. Alarmists fail to adequately explain why temperatures began warming at the end of the Little Ice Age in about 1850, long before man-made CO2 emissions could have impacted the climate. Then about 1940, just as man-made CO2 emissions rose sharply, the temperatures began a decline that lasted until the 1970’s, prompting the media and many scientists to fear a coming ice age.
A letter sent to the Canadian Prime Minister on April 6, 2006 by 60 prominent scientists who question the basis for climate alarmism, clearly explains the current state of scientific knowledge on global warming. The 60 scientists wrote: “If, back in the mid-1990s, we knew what we know today about climate, Kyoto would almost certainly not exist, because we would have concluded it was not necessary.” The letter also noted: “‘Climate change is real’ is a meaningless phrase used repeatedly by activists to convince the public that a climate catastrophe is looming and humanity is the cause. Neither of these fears is justified. Global climate changes occur all the time due to natural causes and the human impact still remains impossible to distinguish from this natural ‘noise.”
In 2006, the director of the International Arctic Research Center in Fairbanks Alaska, testified to Congress that highly publicized climate models showing a disappearing Arctic were nothing more than “science fiction.”
“Geologists Think the World May be Frozen Up Again.” That sentence appeared over 100 years ago in the February 24, 1895 edition of the New York Times.
A front page article in the October 7, 1912 New York Times, just a few months after the Titanic struck an iceberg and sank, declared that a prominent professor “Warns Us of an Encroaching Ice Age.” The very same day in 1912, the Los Angeles Times ran an article warning that the “Human race will have to fight for its existence against cold.” An August 10, 1923 Washington Post article declared: “Ice Age Coming Here.”
By the 1930’s, the media took a break from reporting on the coming ice age and instead switched gears to promoting global warming: “America in Longest Warm Spell Since 1776; Temperature Line Records a 25-year Rise” stated an article in the New York Times on March 27, 1933.
The media of yesteryear was also not above injecting large amounts of fear and alarmism into their climate articles. An August 9, 1923 front page article in the Chicago Tribune declared: “Scientist Says Arctic Ice Will Wipe Out Canada.” The article quoted a Yale University professor who predicted that large parts of Europe and Asia would be “wiped out” and Switzerland would be “entirely obliterated.”
A December 29, 1974 New York Times article on global cooling reported that climatologists believed “the facts of the present climate change are such that the most optimistic experts would assign near certainty to major crop failure in a decade.” The article also warned that unless government officials reacted to the coming catastrophe, “mass deaths by starvation and probably in anarchy and violence” would result. In 1975, the New York Times reported that “A major cooling [was] widely considered to be inevitable.”
On February 19, 2006, CBS News’s “60 Minutes” produced a segment on the North Pole. The segment was a completely one-sided report, alleging rapid and unprecedented melting at the polar cap. It even featured correspondent Scott Pelley claiming that the ice in Greenland was melting so fast, that he barely got off an ice-berg before it collapsed into the water. “60 Minutes” failed to inform its viewers that a 2005 study by a scientist named Ola Johannessen and his colleagues showing that the interior of Greenland is gaining ice and mass and that according to scientists, the Arctic was warmer in the 1930’s than today.
According to data released on July 14, 2006 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the January through June Alaska statewide average temperature was “0.55F (0.30C) cooler than the 1971-2000 average.”
In August 2006, Khabibullo Abdusamatov, a scientist who heads the space research sector for the Russian Academy of Sciences, predicted long-term global cooling may be on the horizon due to a projected decrease in the sun’s output.

July 16, 2011 5:10 pm

BBC Feb 2001 Global warming ‘could melt Arctic’ and thawing of permafrost in Siberia – “It is predicted that by 2030 most buildings in cities like Yakutsk and Tikisi could be lost”
“Northwest passage was ice free for the first time in history in 2007.”
Gore –
Al Gore said this in 2009, also said in 2008 and 2007
Gore – “The entire polar ice cap … could be completely ice free within the next five to seven years.” said last dec 2009
And has a terrific report from NOAA’s Monthly Weather Review November 1922 of big melt in Arctic.
2009 Even Tehran gets the news from AP – “Explorers: North Pole summers ice free in 10 years”
October 1998 Buenos Aires Conference On Global Warming: Much Ado About Nothing by John Carlisle National P0licy Analysis
A good read blast from the past – IPCC backtracking on temp predictions, Hansen saying he got it wrong, and lot more including no evidence of Arctic warming and more ice result of global warming – is that the first example?
About the Maslowski adjustments from 2013 to 2016
2009 Power Games in the Arctic Ocean – take these predictions seriously, 2013 and 2037 mentioned.
Al Gore’s Recycled Doom – has Ehrlich quotes from 1989 and 1990 – you could tie your boat to the Washington Monument..
Has a graphic from US National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration
Showing ice 100% in 1950 and 54% in 2050 – though it looks a lot less in 2050 than 54% – but maybe I just can’t read sea ice thicknesses.

July 16, 2011 5:20 pm

I should have clarified, but you’ve probably figured it out already- the first date is the date of publication, then I give the date of the estimated disappearance of the ice, then the link. I searched at Google books.
2008, by 2020: http://books.google.com/books?id=ZBhNrtPp6DcC&pg=PA210&dq=arctic+%22ice-free+by+2020%22&hl=en&ei=CSIiTpO1NI6utweJubC_Aw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=1&sqi=2&ved=0CCkQ6AEwAA
2006: Measurements from the Arctic Ocean, Greenland (an enormous frozen island), and the northwestern shores of Alaska show that floating sea ice … which has been topped with ice for at least 11700 years may be ice-free within 15 years.http://books.google.com/books?id=Yhmar5MiFF8C&pg=PA473&dq=arctic+%22ice-free+within%22&hl=en&ei=iyIiTsnpBoW5twf6m5CsAw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=6&sqi=2&ved=0CEIQ6AEwBQ
2009/10: It is estimated that Arctic summers will be ice-free within 10 years, and the landscapes of the Antarctic will change beyond recognition by 2050. http://books.google.com/books?id=EBLH9KR69JEC&pg=PA90&dq=arctic+%22ice-free+within%22&hl=en&ei=DygiTrHSMIqjtgfnubHOAw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=1&ved=0CCgQ6AEwADgK
2007: In the summer of 2006 the Arctic ice area was two million square kilometres less than usual. The latest forecast is that all summer ice in the Arctic will have gone by 2040 at the latest.http://books.google.com/books?id=ApIdAQAAIAAJ&q=%22arctic+ice+will+be+gone+by%22&dq=%22arctic+ice+will+be+gone+by%22&hl=en&ei=iikiTqXpOcuztwfY98y7Aw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=4&sqi=2&ved=0CDoQ6AEwAw
2009: And this prediction is from only one model, while many others show the ice will be gone before 2050 http://books.google.com/books?id=HDfB3jc62agC&pg=PA98&dq=%22arctic+ice+will+be+gone+by%22&hl=en&ei=iikiTqXpOcuztwfY98y7Aw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=5&sqi=2&ved=0CD4Q6AEwBA
2003: and if the rate of retreat seen over the last 30 years continues, it is predicted that all will be gone in 50 years time… http://books.google.com/books?id=w8a6lZPMrnUC&pg=PA280&dq=%22arctic+ice+will+be+gone+by%22&hl=en&ei=iikiTqXpOcuztwfY98y7Aw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=7&sqi=2&ved=0CEkQ6AEwBg

July 16, 2011 5:34 pm

What a fantastic support by WUWT readers! I applaud you all!!!

Billy Liar
July 16, 2011 5:45 pm

This whole project very much needs some precise definitions, otherwise there will be a lot of hand-waving about the meaning of an ‘ice-free Arctic’ when it comes to the crunch.
When climate change fetishists say ‘ice-free’ they don’t really mean literally ice-free. They mean much less ice than now – little enough to dismiss what remains as insignificant.
We need to hold them to their literal statement by defining ‘Arctic’ and ‘ice-free’ in such a way that they cannot state the ‘Arctic is ice-free’ unless it literally is completely ice free. No icebergs, no bergy-bits, no growlers, nothing.
Time for the fetishists to come out and say precisely what they mean by ‘ice-free’.
Otherwise I’m not playing.

July 16, 2011 5:53 pm

Global Warming Making Allergies Worse
Basically an increase in Co2 has been beneficial to plant life, but man made climate change seems to only increase those nasty plants that produce pollen, Yes that would be all of them.
In this clip you will hear the expert opinion of a medical doctor who says “because we’ve had a lot of rain, and now we’ve had a lot of dry weather for a lot of weeks, and we’ve had a lot of patients in that we haven’t seen in years”.
It really makes sense that plant life evolved to take advantage of just such a process, Co2 + Rain = more plant life followed by a seasonal dry weather spell to blow a lot of pollen about.
But there is still the suggestion of man made global warming causality.

Darren Parker
July 16, 2011 5:53 pm



Michael O
July 16, 2011 6:02 pm

Googling ‘arctic ice “tim flannery”‘ yields 71,500 results. Life is too short to check them all but I’m sure there are some howlers there. He never lets the facts stand in the way of a good scare story.

July 16, 2011 8:10 pm

Prominent players: Film Industry
Billy Liar says: July 16, 2011 at 5:45 pm
<otherwise I'm not playing. You don’t need you to play, they have a captive audience in toddlers and children who don’t yet have the cognitive ability in parameters of time/space.
Ice Age: The Meltdown MArch 2006
The film exceeded expectations by opening with an $68,033,544 in its first weekend

“In the opening scene, Scrat, the saber-toothed squirrel climbs a glacier but accidentally opens a hole in it. The world of ice is slowly melting. The creatures of the Ice Age are all shown enjoying themselves on slides and pools made by the melting ice; among them the three protagonists of the first film: Manny, Sid, and Diego. Sid opens a day camp, where none of the younger creatures take him seriously, nor do Manny and Diego, which leaves Sid seeking a daring deed. Fast Tony, a local con artist is claiming that the earth will flood and that the bark and reeds which he sells are needed to stay alive. Manny dismisses the idea, but is distracted…………”
No Time for Nuts can also be found on youtube.

Steve Keohane
July 16, 2011 8:35 pm

At NOAA’s site, by 2035: http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/future/sea_ice.html
Using the observed 2007/2008 summer sea ice extents as a starting point (Figure 1, above), computer models predict that the Arctic could be nearly sea ice free in summertime within 30 years (Figure 2, above). (Where it says 2035)
and this one:”Ice-free Arctic could be here in 23 years” David Adam, environment correspondent, The Guardian, September 5, 2007, Retrieved September 5, 2007

July 16, 2011 8:53 pm

I’m short of time to read earlier comments and as these are well known, especially the Goracle one, apologies for the likely repeat of these. Also I haven’t checked the links lately so I hope they’re still working.
Gore in 08 – ice free arctic in 5 years http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/07/17/the-annotated-gore-climate-speech/
Pen Hadow in 09 – ice free arctic in 10 years http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/6326446/Arctic-will-be-ice-free-in-a-decade-according-to-Pen-Hadow.html
NSIDC this year – ice free arctic within thirty years http://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/record-melt-will-see-arctic-icefree-in-summer-by-2030-20110712-1hcah.html

July 16, 2011 8:54 pm

Ice Age: Continental Drift July 2012
Also a search on Google ‘national geographic ice free Arctic’ brought up pages of reports, many with dates Anthony.
Prominent players: Educational TV
National Geographic streams at 7.30 pm. prime time children viewing and internet access for pictures (no drawing these days) for school projects. No year dates avail, presume streaming in 2011?
Do not state by ‘no ice by XXX’ but sublimal messages of melting ice which fits the (visual) narrative designed of much ‘science’ and ‘history’ delivered to kids these days.
National Geographic channel Educational TV :p (search ‘Arctic ice’)
1. On Thin Ice
Superbly suited to their environment, polar bears thrive in the planet’s most hostile corners.
There is no more iconic symbol of strength and adaptation to the elements than the polar bear. An animal so superbly suited to its environment that it thrives in the most hostile corners of the planet. But this magnificent master of the arctic is once again in danger of disappearing. From the far north of the Canadian wilderness, to the arctic islands of Norway, leading scientists are in the field working on the cutting-edge of polar bear research, dedicated to securing a future for this magnificent creature. It is not too late for their survival, but only just. It is a race against time and one they are determined to win. The frozen expanses of the Arctic are shrinking at an unprecedented rate and the very survival of the polar bear is literally on thin ice. http://natgeotv.com.au/tv/on-thin-ice/
2. Polar Bear Alcatraz
Imagine being marooned on an Arctic island with the highest density of the biggest land predators anywhere on the planet?
The polar bear is the biggest land predator of them all. So imagine being marooned on an Arctic island, with the highest density of polar bears anywhere on the planet. Two men are willing to do just that. And to this tale of survival is added the touching story of an orphaned cub which is forced to go it alone in a world of ice. Time and again, the bears test the men’s endurance as they explore the majesty and splendour of the polar bear at its most wild and raw. http://natgeotv.com.au/tv/polar-bear-alcatraz/
3. Six Degrees
Examine the irreversible changes brought on by global warming
How is it that cheeseburgers consumed by Americans have a larger carbon footprint than all the SUVs in America? And how can we play our part in stopping climate change? http://natgeotv.com.au/tv/six-degrees/
4. Waking the Baby Mammoth
In this unique story of discovery, a perfectly preserved baby woolly mammoth suddenly is found, triggering an investigation into her life and death at the end of the Ice Age. http://natgeotv.com.au/tv/waking-the-baby-mammoth/
source:- http://natgeotv.com.au/ (italics added)

Geoff Sherrington
July 16, 2011 10:22 pm

Are the dates normally distributed about some mean?

July 16, 2011 10:32 pm

ice free arctic between 2050 & 2080
paper – http://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/5/1311/2011/tcd-5-1311-2011.pdf
Recent wind driven high sea ice export in
the Fram Strait contributes to Arctic sea
ice decline

a jones
July 16, 2011 10:33 pm

I am sure you have this one but if not it bears repeating:
Kindest Regards

Glenn Hayes
July 16, 2011 10:38 pm
July 17, 2011 12:18 am

Here’s an interesting letter from 1928 on the rapid warming in the arctic in the 20’s:
It doesn’t predict an ice free arctic, but it shows that the warming at that time seemed so alarming to scientists that some doubted that the measurements could be correct. Here’s a quick translation:
“I’m sending you a report of the monthly means in Green Harbour and an explanation by meteorologist Birkeland, where he states his opinion that there must have been a change in the thermometer setup, since the climate seems to have become milder during the recent years.”
“While not denying that there can be temperature fluctuation in the arctic regions lasting such a long time as this, I’d still like to ask you whether you’re aware of any change in the thermometer setup, or in anything else that could influence the temperatures that are recorded.”
The station in Green Harbour (Grønfjorden) is in Svalbard, was located near today’s Russian town Barentsburg. The reply was that there had been no changes.

John Edmondson
July 17, 2011 1:10 am

I found this, but judging by the comments already here, its probably aleady been spotted

July 17, 2011 1:27 am

I think most of these have already been found but I’ll leave the list anyway 🙂
I searched “arctic ice summer gone” in Altavista and these were the top 10 results:
By 2008 – Olaf Orheim of the Norwegian International Polar Year Secretariat – http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-03/01/content_7696460.htm (posted 01-Mar-2008) and http://www.treehugger.com/files/2008/03/arctic-ice-cap-gone.php (posted 02-Mar-2008)
By 2008 – Mark Serreze of NASA – http://www.kewego.co.uk/video/iLyROoafYeQw.html (posted either 07-Aug or 08-Jul-2008 depending on whether the date is UK or US format)
By 2012 – Jay Zwally of NASA (Mark Serreze also gets quoted but not mentioning a date) – http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/12/071212-AP-arctic-melt.html (posted 12-Dec-2007), also in the UK Daily Telegraph http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/3318239/Arctic-ice-could-be-gone-in-five-years.html , the Sunday Herald in Scotland http://www.heraldscotland.com/summer-ice-in-arctic-will-be-gone-in-under-five-years-1.870801 , and on a website called “Beyond 2012” http://beyond2012hq.com/will-2012-be-the-end-for-arctic-summer-ice/
By 2015 – “scientists”, not further specified – http://globalwarmingisreal.com/2009/04/29/will-arctic-summer-ice-have-disappeared-by-2015/ (no post date but there’s a comment dated 20-May-2009 so on or before that date)
By 2029 – Peter Wadhams of Cambridge University – http://www.recycle.co.uk/news/1488000.html (posted 16-Oct-2009)
By 2040 – NCAR – http://www.climateark.org/blog/2006/12/summer-arctic-sea-ice-gone-by.asp (posted 12-Dec-2006, reference http://www.innovations-report.de/html/berichte/geowissenschaften/bericht-75828.html )

July 17, 2011 1:50 am

By 2019, or possibly as early as 2013 according to Walt Meier.
Arctic will be ice-free within a decade
By Louise Gray, Environment Correspondent, The Telegraph, 7 April 2009
“Walt Meier, research scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Centre at the University of Colorado where the research was carried out, said global warming had caused the ice to retreat dramatically in the last two decades. The six lowest recordings of sea ice cover were all recorded in the last six years.”
“He said thinner sea ice is less likely to survive the summer and predicted the Arctic Ocean will be effectively ice free sometime between 2020 and 2040, although it is possible it could happen as early as 2013.”

Arfur Bryant
July 17, 2011 2:05 am

This may be of interest.
A quote by NSIDC:
Sometimes in everyday use, people associate “the North Pole” with the entire Arctic region. However, when scientists discuss the North Pole, they mean the geographic North Pole, a single point on the globe located at 90 degrees North. The term “Arctic” generally refers to a much larger region that encompasses the northern latitudes of the globe. The Arctic includes regions of Russia, North America, and Greenland, as well as the Arctic Ocean.
Early in the summer of 2008, there were reports that the ice at the North Pole may melt away completely during the summer of 2008. While the possibility existed that the geographic point at the North Pole could be ice-free in summer at some point, NSIDC scientists did not made an official statement as to whether this might happen. The scientific community has a range of predictions concerning when we could see an ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer. It could be as early as 2013 or as late as 2100. NSIDC’s projections generally fall somewhere in the lower half of this range.

July 17, 2011 2:09 am

By 1930 i.e. 81 years ago?
Actually that is the inference drawn in retrospect from a report by the US Weather Bureau in 1922 according to the article below. In reply to a comment querying the source the administrator said that “the weather report was issued by the US weather Bureau in November 1922 and appeared in print in the Washington Post the same month.”
I have not seen the Washington Post article by my impression is that it did not mention a specific date.
Looks like the Arctic will be ice free by 1930
“The Arctic ocean is warming up, icebergs are growing scarcer and
in some places the seals are finding the water too hot,” according
to a report to the Commerce Department yesterday from US Consul
Ifft, at Bergen, Norway. Reports from fishermen, seal hunters and
explorers, he declared, all point to a radical change in climate
conditions and hitherto unheard-of temperatures in the Arctic zone.
“Exploration expeditions report that scarcely any ice has been met
with as far north as 81 degrees 29 minutes. Soundings to a depth
of 3,100 meters showed the gulf stream still very warm. Great
masses of ice have been replaced by moraines of earth and stones,
the report continued, while at many points well-known glaciers
have entirely disappeared. Very few seals and no white fish are
found in the eastern Arctic, while vast shoals of herring and
smelts, which have never before ventured so far north, are being
encountered in the old seal fishing grounds.”

Geir in Norway
July 17, 2011 2:12 am

Professor Olav Orheim with his doctoral degree in glaciology is mentioned above. This is from an interview with him, published 23.01.2008 kl. 08:04, in Norwegian, in the leading (and sole) Norwegian technological weekly):
He states that the Arctic will be ice-free this summer, but after all, it [huge exclamation marks and laughter and applause here] depends on the weather!
This is another one about an expedition that is embarking on a voyage to the Arctic in order to find out how quickly it all happens, published 30.10.2007 kl. 08:52:
They state that it may happen in 16 years time or it may happen within 2100.
There are many more such articles with various degrees of scariness and “if we don’t do something” and surprising consequences – like ice melting will give more drought, but the absurdity of it all made me reluctant to include more.
By all means, the Norwegian media have released thousands of such articles during the last years.

John Marshall
July 17, 2011 2:36 am

I receive the BBC so will keep an eagle eye put.

July 17, 2011 4:03 am

Have used the elder wand to move almost all above URLs before 2:09 am into a spread sheet. one page has raw data. Second page has duplicates removed. Anthony, interested?

July 17, 2011 4:37 am

This is from the biggest swedish daily newspaper. It claims the Arctic may be icefree this summer. For the first time in at least a hundred thousand years. The year was 2008….

July 17, 2011 4:59 am

Popular Science – 1923:
“Is the North Pole going to melt entirely? Are the Arctic regions warning up, with prospect of a great climate change in that part of the world? Science (says “Popular Science”) is asking these questions.”

July 17, 2011 5:05 am

“The Arctic is Melting
A mysterious warming of the Arctic climate is slowly manifesting itself, said Dr Haas Ahlmann, Swedish geophysicist at the University of California yesterday”

July 17, 2011 5:09 am

“Polar Ice Caps Melt
New York, Sunday. Polar Ice caps were melting at an astonishing rate, Dr. W. S. Carlson said.”

July 17, 2011 5:13 am

“CLIMATE CHANGE. World is warming!
The Arctic Ocean had risen about an inch in the last 80 years, due to the sun melting the ice packs.”

Andrew Harding
July 17, 2011 6:05 am

I enjoyed reading Wil’s post, I remember the global cooling predictions from the 60’s/70’s but was not aware that it was just panic repeating itself.
The whole point that the warmists are missing (and some of the sceptics) is that a long term trend in climate change cannot be determined in less than say 50 years. To state that one given weather event is due to climate change is nonsensical because extremes of weather have happened throughout history.The longer you wait the greater are the chances that extreme cold or heat will occur, as will more powerful hurricanes and tornadoes. Likewise with non-weather events such as tsumani, volcanoes and earthquakes.
Best of luck with analysing all the information Anthony, I don’t envy you, but I think that WUWT contributors have done you proud!!

Tim Folkerts
July 17, 2011 6:37 am

Not to rain TOO much on the parade, but it is important to read the predictions carefully.
* Do they predict the entire Arctic will be ice-free?
* Do they predict the entire Arctic will be mostly ice-free?
* Do they predict the North Pole will be ice-free?
* Do they predict the North Pole will some open water?
* Do they predict the Northwest Passage will be open?
Glancing thru the links, I see some of that seem to match all the different criteria. For example, the North Pole did come relatively close to having open water (interspersed with ice) in 2007. It would not take TOO much more melting to get the Pole itself ice-free even though that would leave a great deal of ice in the Arctic Sea as a whole.
Heck, at least one of the old articles was addressing the melting of GLACIERS in Alaska and Norway, not sea ice! The second-hand reports in newspapers and press releases of scientific information are notoriously inaccurate, and I would be very wary of using such sources.

Nick Shaw
July 17, 2011 7:44 am

LOL Anthony! I don’t even have to post a thing! This is one fine team you have here.
What I find most impressive and that pulls the rug out from under the warmists are the many first hand reports from the 1800’s and early 1900’s that describe a dearth of ice in the Arctic. Funny, I don’t recall all life on earth disrupted then. How come it is expected to be disrupted if the ice melts in the future? How come those South Pacific islands were there then, as they are now? The links that are particularly hilarious are the ones that use the words, “for the first time in history!”
I think it has something to do with progressive thought that doesn’t require one to learn from history. Their world begins now and any change is necessarily bad because it suits their need for crisis resulting in their control of the rest of us.
A big round of applause to all of you!!!
As a side note, not a single troll! Amazing how they scurry into the darkness when faced with overwhelming evidence that what they spew is unadulterated crap!!!

Robert E
July 17, 2011 7:46 am

I tried to compile all the links above with a webbspider. It can be found in the google docs link below:
I can’t guarrantee that all links are there but I think most of them are. Anyone can edit it so if you have more links or want to add information in the other collumns you can do so. Simply click on the link. And don’t forgett to save the document.

R. Gates
July 17, 2011 8:42 am

Well, let’s not forget the other side of the equation, with skeptical experts such as Joe Bastardi saying essentially that the Arctic will never be ice free, and is essentially in the process of recovery. On this very blog, regarding 2011’s sea ice melt and recovery, last December he said:
“The ice is coming back, will do so in forward and back steps, with forward defeating the back steps. I am on record as saying we will be back to 1977 levels by 2030. The real problem would be is if there is no corresponding drop in the southern hemisphere sea ice. Like the 70s, cries of ice age will start again. So my forecast for next years melt is for 5.5.”
Sorry Joe, but you’re really missing the boat on this years melt. I hope someone didn’t pay you for the forecast.
But Anthony, I suppose the point of your research is to show how foolish and wrong the warmists have been about their ice free predictions, and that’s all well and good, but it misses the bigger issue about trying to predict the future state of a system undergoing non-linear changes.

July 17, 2011 9:31 am

The Arctic will be ice-free the next time you blink. And, thereafter, it will be ice free each and every time you blink.

Adrian Ocneanu
July 17, 2011 9:43 am

Another equally important preparation for Gore’s Climate Change onslaught would be to have at hand documentation on
earlier climate incidents similar to the ones in the last few years.
E.g. the Arctic melt in 1922 (and earlier documented instances), tornadoes history, drought history, etc.

Patrick McGinty
July 17, 2011 10:11 am

We have already witnessed major losses in sea ice, but our research suggests that the decrease over the next few decades could be far more dramatic than anything that has happened so far,” NCAR scientist Marika Holland, the study’s lead author, said in a release.
“These changes are surprisingly rapid.”
19 December 2006

Nick Shaw
July 17, 2011 10:12 am

@R. Gates
You don’t find it interesting that Bastardi appears to subscibe to the historical model, that the ice forms and retreats on a regular basis? That perhaps he looks at his historical model to base his theory on future activity? True, he may be wrong.
But, I’d be more willing to listen to Joe than to people who basically make stuff up and cry wolf!

Patrick McGinty
July 17, 2011 10:23 am

Greenpeace Leader Admits Arctic Ice Exaggeration
by Phelim McAleer & Ann McElhinney‏
The outgoing leader of Greenpeace has admitted his organization’s recent claim that the Arctic Ice will disappear by 2030 was “a mistake.” Greenpeace made the claim in a July 15 press release entitled “Urgent Action Needed As Arctic Ice Melts,” which said there will be an ice-free Arctic by 2030 because of global warming.
Under close questioning by BBC reporter Stephen Sackur on the “Hardtalk” program, Gerd Leipold, the retiring leader of Greenpeace, said the claim was wrong.
“I don’t think it will be melting by 2030. … That may have been a mistake,” he said.
Link to Video
19 August 2009

Patrick McGinty
July 17, 2011 10:37 am

Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013’
By Jonathan Amos
Science reporter, BBC News, San Francisco
Arctic summer melting in 2007 set new records
More details
Scientists in the US have presented one of the most dramatic forecasts yet for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice.
Their latest modelling studies indicate northern polar waters could be ice-free in summers within just 5-6 years.
Professor Wieslaw Maslowski told an American Geophysical Union meeting that previous projections had underestimated the processes now driving ice loss.

Patrick McGinty
July 17, 2011 10:40 am

Arctic Ocean Ice-Free in Summer by 2015, New Research Shows – Greenland Ice Sheet Shows Rapid Losses, Too
by Matthew McDermott, New York, NY on 09. 1.09
Science & Technology (science)
photo: Nick Russill via flickr
Anyone keeping up on the pace of Arctic summer sea ice melting, take note: Mongabay is reporting on new research presented by the National Space Institute at Technical University of Denmark (and others) which says that if current melting trends continue, the Arctic Ocean will be ice-free in the summer by 2015:
These latest estimates are based on new data on the rate of rapid thinning of Arctic sea ice — 2004-2008 saw a total decline of 67cm. (More on this from NASA.)
What’s more, scientists reported “rapid increases” in the amount of ice lost from the Greenland Ice Sheet — 60% of which is coming from icebergs calving off glaciers. The remaining amount is coming from increased surface melting, which is no longer confined to the southern part of the ice sheet — the amount of ice accumulating in the inland part of the ice sheet is starting to decline as well.
Read more: Mongabay
Arctic Ice Melt
Arctic Sea Ice Melt 20 Years Ahead of Schedule, Scientist Maintains Tipping Point Assertion
NASA Confirms Dramatic Thinning of Arctic Sea Ice – Multi-year Ice the Size of Alaska Lost
Arctic Just Witnessed Fastest August Ice Retreat in History

Nick Shaw
July 17, 2011 10:42 am

@ Adrian Ocneanu
I was going to suggest the very same thing Adrian. That could turn out to be the best compilation of data ever in this debate!

Patrick McGinty
July 17, 2011 10:51 am

Cryosphere: The big melt
Alicia Newton
To read this article in full you may need to log in, make a payment or gain access through a site license (see right).

R. Gates
July 17, 2011 12:23 pm

Nick Shaw says:
July 17, 2011 at 10:12 am
@R. Gates
You don’t find it interesting that Bastardi appears to subscibe to the historical model, that the ice forms and retreats on a regular basis? That perhaps he looks at his historical model to base his theory on future activity? True, he may be wrong.
But, I’d be more willing to listen to Joe than to people who basically make stuff up and cry wolf.
I think Joe knows certain things well, but knows nothing about sea ice or what is happening in the Arctic. He is assuming that historical cycles of climate will constantly repeat themselves, just like the seasons do. This is why Joe makes a better weatherman than a climatologist. We’ve got an atmosphere on this planet whose composition is like nothing the planet has seen in at least a million years. Joe seems to discount this, and that’s why he probably ought to stick with weather forecasting, and leave longer term climate changes to others.

July 17, 2011 7:16 pm

R.Gates, based on whatever you have posted in WUWT so far, you certainly know nothing about any relaities related to Temperatures, predictions, calculations or for that matter anything related to empirical evidence when it comes to Climate Science. All you have displayed is a totally blinkered and blind obedience to AGW theory not supported by any facts or logic. Joe Bastardii knows a lot more than what you’ve ever known in your life regarding weather and predictions.

R. Gates
July 17, 2011 10:45 pm

Venter says:
July 17, 2011 at 7:16 pm
R.Gates, based on whatever you have posted in WUWT so far, you certainly know nothing about any relaities related to Temperatures, predictions, calculations or for that matter anything related to empirical evidence when it comes to Climate Science. All you have displayed is a totally blinkered and blind obedience to AGW theory not supported by any facts or logic. Joe Bastardii knows a lot more than what you’ve ever known in your life regarding weather and predictions
I realize that Joe B. is a hero among some of the skeptical faithful, and so my challenging his credibility in predicting the direction that sea ice is headed in the longer-term amounts to heresy. Joe has yet to prove he understands anything about the dynamics of Arctic sea ice. He seems to assume that some cyclical ocean or solar cycles can explain everything that’s going to happen. He discounts the 40% increase in CO2 we’ve had over the past few centuries. This of course, is reason enough he’s a hero to the skeptical faithful, but IMO, he knows nothing about where the Arctic sea ice is headed in the longer term. He keeps looking for a recovery, that just seems quite reluctant to happen.

Joe Prins
July 18, 2011 12:38 am

Going through my “keepers”, found this one: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/view.php
I have no idea if someone already mentioned this one.
Good Luck.
Reply: Why didn’t you look? Too much trouble to use the search function on your browser? It turns out no one has previously, which is ok, since the link you gives goes to an error page. ~ ctm

Joe Prins
July 18, 2011 12:51 am
July 18, 2011 5:02 am

On Bishop Hill is an interesting list of all the climate scares in the past 114 years
Climate Change Timeline – 1895-2009
It is from Peter Walsh; to be found as the 7 th comment to the Abraham’s topic.

July 18, 2011 7:36 am

WUWT at http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/07/24/nyt-expert-says-arctic-ocean-will-soon-be-an-open-sea/ covered a Feb. 20, 1969 New York Times article titled “Expert Says Artic Ocean Will Soon Be an Open Sea.”

John Brookes
July 18, 2011 8:45 am

Why not run a book and take bets on an ice free arctic? I’d go for 2030 myself.

July 19, 2011 1:25 am

R.Gates, it’s not about Joe Bastardi being hero. It’s about you not being trustworthy about about anything you say with regards to Climate and Climate Science. That’s the specific point I make. You are a water carrier for bad science and unethical practices adopted by the AGW faithful.

Paul Milligan
July 21, 2011 6:11 am

Amateur video of amateur opinions. Please note this is not from a reputable source.

August 10, 2011 4:47 pm

contenido muy interesante, donde podriamos ampliar información sobre esto? saludos hi! i would like to know where y get more information? thank you

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