There’s always a lot of squawking about “climate disruption” from politically funded disinformers like Joe Romm, Bill McKibben, and their ilk anytime there is a heat wave anywhere these days. But, it doesn’t hold up. One only has to look at all the faux noise made last year over the Russian heat wave, which NOAA later analysed and said was not connected in any way to “climate change”.
The heat wave of 2003 in Europe has often been cited as proof that AGW is making heat waves worse. But, at a time when we had far less people, and far less CO2 in the atmosphere, a very deadly heat wave occurred.
History: 100 years ago today, In the US 652 deaths in a week reported during heatwave 9th July 1911 despite a lower composition of CO2 in the atmosphere. The only possible explanation? “Climate Disruption” has the power of time travel /sarc
Source: The book “Chronicle of the 20th century” p154.
This Day in History has this to say about it. The heat wave began in early July and lasted almost two weeks – the classic signature of a blocking high.
On this day in 1911 record temperatures are set in the northeastern United States as a deadly heat wave hits the area that would go on to kill 380 people. In Nashua, New Hampshire, the mercury peaked at 106 degrees Fahrenheit. Other high-temperature records were set all over New England during an 11-day period.
The area from Pennsylvania northeast to Maine was most affected by the stifling heat. New York City was particularly hard hit. In fact, the New York City Health Department put out one of its very first heat advisories during July 1911. Mayor William Gaynor tried to make sure that the city’s ice dealers could keep up their deliveries; in the time before refrigeration, ice was critical in keeping the food supply from spoiling.
By July 13, New York had reported 211 people dead from the excessive heat. One man, apparently disoriented from heat exhaustion, overdosed on strychnine. In Philadelphia, 159 people died from the heat. The types of deaths ascribed to the heat could vary quite a bit in 1911, with some authorities including those who drowned while attempting to cool off by swimming in the count.
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The event is well documented by the Library of Congress. h/t Wikipedia
1911 Eastern North America heat wave from the Library of Congress at Flickr Commons
Apparently, it wasn’t limited to the USA, “Climate Disruption” jumped the pond:
The United Kingdom heatwave of 1911 was a particularly severe heat wave and associated drought. Records were set around the country for temperature in England, including the highest July temperature of 36C (97F) in Epsom, Surrey,[1] only broken 79 years later in the 1990 heatwave.[2]
h/t to WUWT reader “The Tempest Spark”
JohnWho says:
July 10, 2011 at 5:35 am
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REPLY: Note the /sarc tag which you eliminated in your reproduction – Anthony
As I also left the “/sarc” tag off of my remark.
Just pointing out that if you were using the CAGW methodology, perhaps the “/sarc” tag would give way to the “/CAGW Meth” tag?
Apologies if it was misunderstood.
The summer heatwave in England in 1911 arrived just after a period described by the Royal Meteorological Society as having “the most sustained drought conditions captured in the instrumented record.” Here’s an article from the UK Groundwater Forum, which describes conditions up to that time:
http://www.groundwateruk.org/Groundwater-drought-in-the-UK.aspx
“In the 150 years before the First World War however, winters were generally drier and clusters of dry winters were appreciably more common. Correspondingly, groundwater levels remained seasonally depressed for very extended periods… posing a continuing threat to local water supplies. The most outstanding of these sustained droughts was the ‘Long Drought’ that lasted from 1890-1910. This was, however, punctuated by several notably wet interludes; 1903 is the wettest year on record at Kew (in a series from 1697) but the record summer rainfall, and associated flooding, was accompanied by acute water supply problems due to the failure of wells and springs. The ‘Long Drought’ has no modern parallel and any repetition of the extended sequence of dry winters would represent a considerable water resources challenge given modern water demand patterns.”
Following on the heels of this long and persistent drought, the hot dry summer of 1911 had some very serious consequences for those of us who like our beer, as an article in the Toronto World, 30th November 1911 explains (H/T http://www.globalhotair.org):
http://tinyurl.com/6fjs4ds
“The unprecedented drought in England and Northern Europe last summer had a disastrous effect on all farm produce, and was particularly severe with respect to hops and barley.”
1911 was the begining of a deep sunspot minimum as well.
Somewhat OT but I found this just sitting there on Google. Polar Bear makes hockey stick, creates global warming, destroys the world and melts the ice with the hockey stick. Sounds like Micheal Mann.
Tim Folkerts says:
July 10, 2011 at 6:37 am
Fred Burple says (and others echo) the thought “How can something that has occurred before be unprecedented outside of Voodoo Science?”
The 1990 heat wave in the United Kingdom was a particularly severe heat event with temperatures hitting record highs of 37.1°C on 3 August. The temperature was recorded at Nailstone, Leicestershire, and was a full degree Celsius above the previous record, set in 1911. However, this record was subsequently broken in the 2003 heatwave.[1]
From Wikipedia
SO …
The high of 36 C was unprecedented in 1911, since it had never occurred before *
The high of 37.1 was unprecidented in 1990, since it had never occurred before *
The high of 38.5 was unprecidented in 2003, since it had never occurred before *
Is that really difficult to understand???
* “never” = “since records were first kept in England”
The point is there have been the sort of heatwaves in the past that are now being blamed on ‘climate disruption’ solely caused by AGW. Is a heatwave that we measure today an ENTIRE degree hotter than a previous heatwave has been measured using the instruments available at that time really statistically significant?
Tim Folkerts- got an inordinate question being an uppity Scots Irish/Native American,
I noted that the records set in the early 1900’s/10’s were BP-Before Pavement.
Being a fan of Anthony’s “Surface Stations” project- will allow a certain bias being
put into the record. Airport Pavement, Highways, Air Conditioners, Barbecues, and
other modern factors-including placement of Stevenson Screens on rooftops (Santa
Rosa Ca Weather service comes to mind (I have seen that one personally) is a
factor here. Why then are the world temps flat?
BTW I am a former NOAA certified weather observer, professional pilot, and scientifically trained.
Unlike Al Gore….
“Records were set around the country for temperature in England, including the highest July temperature of 36C (97F) in Epsom, Surrey,[1] only broken 79 years later in the 1990 heatwave.[2]”
It would be 98 degrees now. That should scare you. [/sarc]
Since the 1990’s the AGW scientists and IPCC have been telling us that the recent warming from post 1970’s era was unprecedented, caused primarily by man and that the world is at great risk unless we drastically cut our co2 emissions . They are projecting temperature rises of 3-6 C by 2100[or 0.03 to 0.06 C rise per year], depending on which IPCC option you pick] or 4 deg C rise by 2060 [ or 0.08 C rise per year] as per the Met Office. However past history shows that naturally occurring warming periods like we just had and will have again in the future are a regular event on this planet and not at all unprecedented and they were not caused by man at all . There have been at least four previous warming periods of even greater warming magnitude in the last 316 years alone. Prior to that the most notable was the Medieval Warm Period . These are Central England temperature records which are not global data but it is one of the best indicative records that we have of what happened in Europe.
RECENT HISTORIC WARMING PERIODS NOT CAUSED BY MAN
All data per CENTRAL ENGLAND [CET] Monthly mean temperature data per Met Office http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat
Previous
1695-1735 0.07 deg C per year [or 2.79 C rise in 40 years]
1812-1834 0.103 deg C per year [or 2.27 C rise in 22 years [
1838-1868 0.077 deg C per year [or 2.33 C risen 30 years]
1915-1945 0.048 deg C per year [or 1.44 C rise in 30 years]
Latest
1970-1998 0.028 deg C per year [or 0.77 C rise in 28 years]
It always drives me nuts when a news or weather commentator talks about an “unprecedented” flood or heatwave, and then a few sentences later says that the last time we saw something like this was in nineteen hundred and blah-dee-blah. Over and over again I hear that and think, are they really stupid, or are they hoping that the audience will remember the “unprecedented” while forgetting the much less dramatic qualification. Sometimes I actually yell at the TV, which is not only pointless, but extremely annoying to those around me. Still, if anyone complains I protest that my outburst is “unprecedented” and hasn’t happened since last week.
And in Texas we have had these heat waves on and off for most of my 80 years on the planet. I would like the warmists to use a little judgment…and put their money on the line by making predictions that actually pan out.
The records of 1911 were set in a time when there was little, if any, urban heat island effect. Your streets were basically dirt. For all that, the departures from the rural/town normals was far worse than mere instrument readings of today would imply. For people and animals, the most important factor was acclimation. If you had a very cool season right up until the heat wave hit, the effects are much greater than if you had a normal season followed by the heat wave.
What happened in 1911 could happen again. It could get very deadly in the modern urban environment: just take away the electricity. It’s what the Warmists will accomplish given the chance.
I think a great add to this page would be more links to articles describing other “climate disruptions” from way back when.
Does anybody else marvel at the double-standard? When warmists cite a localized weather event, for example last year’s Russian heat wave, it’s solid proof of
global warming climate changeclimate disruption. When skeptics cite localized weather events, such as the last two northern hemisphere winters, we’re scoffed at and told, “It’s only weather.”Funny, that.
RF guy here says he takes a 2nd seat to Faraday – Maxwell – Hertz, particularly James Clerk Maxwell.
From “Where it all began: Faraday, Maxwell and Hertz”
The electromagnetic wave and field concept (Excerpted and adopted from: http://www.uv.es/EBRIT/macro/macro_5002_7_23.html)
Faraday introduced the concept of field and of field lines of force that exist outside material bodies … the region around and outside a magnet or an electric charge contains a field that describes at any location the force experienced by another small magnet or charge placed there. … The concept of field, specifying as it does a certain possible action or force at any location in space, was the key to understanding electromagnetic phenomena. It should be mentioned parenthetically that the field concept also plays (in varied forms) a pivotal role in modern theories of particles and forces.
Besides introducing this important concept of electric and magnetic field lines of force, Faraday had the extraordinary insight that electrical and magnetic actions are not transmitted instantaneously but after a certain lag in time, which increases with distance from the source. Moreover, he realized the connection between magnetism and light after observing that a substance such as glass can rotate the plane of polarization of light in the presence of a magnetic field. This remarkable phenomenon is known as the Faraday Effect.
As noted above, Maxwell formulated a quantitative theory that linked the fundamental phenomena of electricity and magnetism and that predicted electromagnetic waves propagating with a speed, which, as well as one could determine at that time, was identical with the speed of light. He concluded his paper “On the Physical Lines of Force” (1861-62) by saying that electricity may be disseminated through space with properties identical with those of light.
In 1864 Maxwell wrote that the numerical factor linking the electrostatic and the magnetic units was very close to the speed of light and that these results “show that light and magnetism are affections of the same substance, and that light is an electromagnetic disturbance propagated through the field according to [his] electromagnetic laws.”
In 1884 Hertz derived Maxwell’s theory by a new method and put its fundamental equations into their present-day form. In so doing, he clarified the equations, making the symmetry of electric and magnetic fields apparent. The German physicist Arnold Sommerfeld spoke for most of his learned colleagues when, after reading Hertz’s paper, he remarked, “the shades fell from my eyes,” and admitted that he understood electromagnetic theory for the first time.
[In 1888] Hertz made a second major contribution: he succeeded in generating electromagnetic radiation of radio and microwave frequencies, measuring their speed by a standing-wave method and proving that these waves have the properties of reflection, diffraction, refraction, and interference common to light. He showed that such electromagnetic waves can be polarized, that the electric and magnetic fields oscillate in directions that are mutually perpendicular and transverse to the direction of motion, and that their velocity is the same as the speed of light, as predicted by Maxwell’s theory.
Hertz’s ingenious experiments not only settled the theoretical misconceptions in favor of Maxwell’s electromagnetic field theory but also opened the way for building transmitters, antennas, coaxial cables, and detectors for radio-frequency electromagnetic radiation. In 1896 Marconi received the first patent for wireless telegraphy, and in 1901 he achieved transatlantic radio communication.
.
http://answers.google.com/answers/threadview?id=564672
Above is an interesting post [emphasis added.] about “global warming” [/sarc off] in 1859.
The closest thing to an SUV in that era would likely have been a two horse shay or some such.
Years ago, as an employee of the Santa Barbara News Press, I had access to the paper’s morgue and seem to remember reading an old paper of a similar high temperature event in the late 1890’s (?) in Summerland, CA. but so far I have not been able to find any proof of that.
Anyone else ever heard of such regarding that area?
Bruce Cobb says: July 10, 2011 at 6:57 am
@ur momisugly Tim Folkerts, so, then, according to you, any time a record high temperature is broken, it is “unprecedented”. Interesting. Would that also include record lows?
The Alarmist hype and drool of late has certainly been unprecedented.
Well, by the definition Fred gave, yes, any record high or record low would be “unprecedented”.
Holden Magroin follows up: July 10, 2011 at 8:10 am
Is a heatwave that we measure today an ENTIRE degree hotter than a previous heatwave has been measured using the instruments available at that time really statistically significant?
I never claimed anything about statistical significance, which is a much more involved question. There are indeed many other issues to contend with — like changes in instrumentation and environment.
The July 1936 Heat wave has never been Equaled!
“100 years ago today, “climate disruption” traveled back in time …”
HATE it when that happens.
Now there’s a claim that doesn’t pass the “sniff test”. The first and biggest clue is that the periods of time vary, suggesting “cherry picking”. It becomes clear looking at the data that the slopes quoted are based on endpoints, not on a regression fit. In this case, the claimed slopes are based on just 2 years (beginning and end), not on the entire period, making cherry picking even easier.
So let’s see what the data say.
1695-1735 0.07 deg C per year [or 2.79 C rise in 40 years]
The actual 40 year regression slope was 0.036 C/yr, or very nearly 1/2 of the claimed rate.
The value of 0.07 C/yr could only be correct if the 40 years were 1693-1735. But that assumes a calculation based on the end points (which happen to be rather extreme). Using the actual regression slope gives 0.040 C/yr, still close to 1/2 the claimed value.
(Interestingly, this is indeed the largest 40 year regression slope in the data set. THAT would be a claim worth making, since it exceeds even the recent periods when AGW is claimed to have the largest effect.)
1812-1834 0.103 deg C per year [or 2.27 C rise in 22 years]
Now we have to cherry pick the hottest year in a few decades for the end and the coldest year in decades for the two points to get the claimed results of 0.103 C/yr . Humorously, if we start just one year earlier, this method gives a DROP of -0.01 C/yr.
Using the more robust method of regression slopes, 1812-1834 has a rise of 0.064 C/yr — large but similar to values seen ~ 2005.
The 40 year regression slope drops to an unremarkable 0.014 C/yr — 1/7th the claimed rate. This value is below the 40 year regression slope for all years in the most recent decade.
The rest is probably not worth checking — it is almost certainly cherry-picked results invented to pursue an agenda, not to understand the data.
ferd berple says: July 10, 2011 at 12:15 am
I’ve been wondering about this, myself. And the thought occurs to me that perhaps the IPCC have … uh … redefined “unprecedented” – just as their recent output of verbiage (e.g. that which they call “policy” on Conflict of Interest and “protocol” for addressing potential errors) suggests that they might also have redefined “transparency”.
TIM FOLKERTS
You are right . I cherry picked past periods that were approximately the same length and which showed significant warming during the period . IPPC did the same thing by only focusing on the period 1970-2007 and ignored all the past warming . The point of my post is that periods of extra warming existed in the past and they were not caused by man and our recent warming is not that alarming in comparison. I will let the readers judge the graph themselves. [ see below] Your math does not void the fact that major climate waming happened during these past periods .
http://www.climate4you.com/CentralEnglandTemperatureSince1659.htm
It’s worse than thought! Co2 is a heatwave , Satanic gas of the
pastpresent.Over 700 Dead in U.S. Heat Wave – 13 July, 1936
Total Deaths Due To East’s Heat Wave Now Near The 800 Mark – 1 July 1931
“Fewer” people, not “less” people. “Fewer” is used for things you can count: cars, people, stars. “Less” is used for things you can’t could: water, sand, air, guilt.
So, you might use “less people” if you said: “They use less people in soylent green burger patties than they did before the war!”
I believe the total is 380 deaths. It looks like the New York and Philly numbers are subsets of that total.
There, fixed it for you.
😀