From the Institute of Physics
More than 1 in 10 chance of colder UK winters
As the Sun enters a period of low solar activity over the next 50 years, new research has calculated the probability of unusually cold winter temperatures occurring in the UK.
Last year, the same group of researchers, from the University of Reading, linked colder winters in Europe to low solar activity and predicted that the Sun is moving into a particularly low period of activity, meaning the UK will experience more cold winters in the future – potentially similar to those experienced in the Maunder minimum at the end of the 17th century.
The new research, published today, Tuesday 5 July 2011, in IOP Publishing’s journal Environmental Research Letters, supports recent suggestions that sunspot activity is waning, and goes further, using the behaviour of the Sun over the last 9300 years to predict the probabilities of future solar changes.
Over the next 50 years, the researchers show that the probability of the Sun returning to Maunder minimum conditions is about 10 per cent, raising the chances that the average winter temperature will fall below 2.5 oC to around 1 in 7, assuming all other factors, including man-made effects and El Niño, remain constant.
Put in context, the average UK winter temperature for the last 20 years has been 5.04 oC, however the last three winters have averaged 3.50 °C, 2.53 °C and 3.13 °C, with 2009/10 being the 14th coldest in the last 160 years.
The increased probability of colder winters could hold great value for national infrastructure planning by government organisations who have struggled to adapt to the extreme weather conditions experienced in the UK over the past two years.
It is stressed, however, that these results do not have any implications for global climate change, which is concerned with average temperatures for all parts of the world and all times of year. The reported changes only apply in winter and are regional – for example, when the winter is colder in Europe it tends to be warmer in Greenland so that there is almost no effect on the global mean.
These studies obtained the average temperatures between December and February for the past 352 years from the Central England Temperature (CET) data series – the world’s longest instrumental temperature record, maintained by the UK Met Office, extending back to 1659.
This data set was combined with records of the Sun’s activity obtained through the analysis of ‘cosmogenic isotopes’, which are specific types of carbon and beryllium that are known to be influenced by the Sun.
The magnetic field of the Sun protects the Earth from galactic cosmic rays, which, as they hit the Earth’s atmosphere, generate the cosmogenic isotopes which are then deposited in tree trunks and ice sheets. These cosmogenic isotopes can be collected and dated providing a unique insight into the Sun’s variability on timescales ranging from years to millennia.
Data from the cosmogenic isotopes suggests that we are currently coming to the end of a grand solar maximum – a period of intense activity in the Sun – and will therefore experience lower solar activity conditions in future,.
Many researchers have argued that temperature changes attributed to the Sun are, in reality, just caused by the internal variability of the climate system; however, the authors have used this 352-year temperature record to show that there is some, albeit small, predictive skill to be gained from solar activity despite it being just one of a number of factors that influence UK weather.
One mechanism that suggests a link between the Sun and recent cold winters is ‘blocking’. Low solar activity causes extensive anticyclones that persist for several weeks in the Atlantic Ocean, causing the warm westerly winds to be replaced by cold, continental north-easterly winds. Depending on the position of the anticyclone, this can also lead to clear skies at night causing the land to cool even further.
Lead author Professor Mike Lockwood said, “Our results show that over the next fifty years there is a 10 per cent chance that temperatures will return to Maunder minimum levels. Describing the Maunder minimum as a ‘little ice age’ is somewhat misleading however.
“Cold winters were indeed more common during the Maunder minimum but there were also some very warm ones between them, summers were not colder, and the drop in average temperatures was not nearly as great, nor as global, as during a real ice age.”
From Tuesday 5 July (when the link goes active) this journal paper can be found at http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/6/3/034004
h/t to reader “a jones”
As a recent convert to global warming I see that all is not lost. The £100 billion that Britain is to spend building thousands of wind turbines will also require 17 new gas fired power stations simply to provide back up for all those times when the wind drops and the windmills produce even less power than usual. Unfortunately this will require an additional £10 billion spending money. However the 17 dedicated power stations will be kept on “spinning reserve”, 24 hours a day just to make up for the fundamental problem of wind turbines. Luckily gas fired power stations running on “spinning reserve” chuck out more CO2 than when they are running at full efficiency, thereby in a small way off setting the lack of solar activity and the trend to colder winters (coal fired power stations would be even more effective). If we do not proceed along this dubious renewables route the EU of course will fine us for not meeting our renewables targets so at least we will save a few quid there. I suspect this return on investment was worked out by the Liberal Democrats – probably Chris Huhne.
Hey, Anthony, get a load of this!
Coal-burning China’s rapid growth may have HALTED global warming
By Daily Mail Reporter
Last updated at 8:11 AM on 5th July 2011
China’s rapid industrial expansion may have halted global warming for much of the last decade, climate scientists claimed.
They said sulphur pollution from China’s coal-fired power stations helped to keep world temperatures stable despite soaring greenhouse gas emissions.
Burning coal releases carbon dioxide which traps heat from the Sun, raising temperatures. But it also emits particles of sulphur that help block the Sun’s rays and cool the Earth.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/07/05/study-solar-activity-lull-increases-chances-of-cold-uk-winters/
Mike Jackson
Thanks for the extra info. The figures you quote are a bit higher since, as you say, they’re for England, not the whole UK.
Agreed last December was the coldest for 30 years, but I think my point still holds. This is only true because in those 30 years we had about 20 years of mild winters. You point out that 1989 was also very mild. Before the warming of the 1980’s, a December like 1981 or 2010 would not have been thought at all exceptional. Cold, maybe, but not remarkably so. I think people are still locked into a mindset of thinking mild winters are normal. They didn’t used to be, they were for a while, now they’re not.
At the very end of the introduction we have this:
A viable mechanism associates variations in solar UV emissions [33]
with changes to stratospheric temperatures and winds [34].
These could influence the underlying troposphere through
disturbances to the stratospheric polar vortex [35] which may
propagate downwards to affect the tropospheric jets, or through
the effects of stratospheric temperature changes modifying the
refraction of tropospheric storm-track eddies [36].
So, variations in TSI are not the only important contributor? Hmmm. Where have I heard that argument before? So, I wonder if these UV variations are listed in the body of work done by the IPCC anywhere?
Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?
This is the same Lockwood that didn’t see the sun declining half way through the minimum, the same Lockwood who said there was nothing unusual about the C23/24 interval, the same Lockwood who said the sun has minimal effect on the Earth, the same Lockwood ………..
Scam, scam scam. His model could not foresee any of the above and yet it can now see the future precisely and it tells him that the Maunder was local and any future episode will also be regional, focused in the London area :)), and so no-one else need worry because the rest of the world doesn’t receive any influence from the sun; only that which shine out of Cameron rear end;
Pathetic!! all of them. I have asked my french clleagues to role out the guillotine. We have one left but that could wipe out the Brussels wasp nest and London’s in less than a week, if we use the wheel barrow technique. :)))
Richard Briscoe says:
July 5, 2011 at 9:56 am
You point out that 1989 was also very mild. Before the warming of the 1980′s, a December like 1981 or 2010 would not have been thought at all exceptional.
slight problem here? your december was the coldest for 100 years. That would have been exceptional just after the end of the LIA. It was exceptional temperature-wise, maybe, because ’63 was much colder as was 47 but not in December. In ’46/7 Dec was mild as was the first 3 weeks of Jan’47. Yes 2010 was exceptional and not foreseen by the pathetic Brit Met off;
David Archibald says:
July 5, 2011 at 1:33 am
Assuming each winter’s weather is independent of the others, then you just multiply the probabilities. 1/(7^4) = 0.0004164. I.e. a 0.04% chance, or 1 in 2400. (7^4 = 2401)
The paper says: ‘the current grand solar maximum is coming to an end’
While I agree that solar activity is getting lower, the ‘current grand maximum’ is a myth:
http://www.leif.org/research/History%20and%20Calibration%20of%20Sunspot%20Numbers.pdf
so we are towing the party line.
–
That would be “toeing the party line.” As in having a group of people line up, by putting a line on the ground and have everyone stand with their toes just touching the line.
While at the matters solar, latest numbers from the WSO show the Sun’s polar magnetic field is stuck, with no progress in the last 6 months.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC6.htm
Just a comment on Greenland being warmer in the low solar scenario, I was under the impression that during the little ice age, sea ice around Greenland expanded and the settlements there were abandoned. There are also credible reports of polar bears off the coast of Scotland on ice flows – none of that is indicative of a warm Greenland or Arctic!
Continued negative NAO blocking modifies the prevailing winds across the N Atlantic, and I would hypothesise that this must have an impact on the speed/strength of the North Atlantic Current. For ice flows to occur of the Scottish coast, then there must have also been a flow of water from the North, especially to allow polar bears to travel south; that strongly indicates a decrease in the flow of the N Atlantic Current – which would have had a global impact on temperatures.
“More than 1 in 10 chance of colder UK winters”
This is the part that confuses me. A “1 in 10 chance” of colder winters means a 9 in 10 chance that the winters will not be colder. So are they arguing that lower solar activity will likely result in warmer winters in the UK? Where did the “1 in 10” come from?
I wondered how long we would be getting back to the 70’s climate science meme – “The Ice Age is Coming”. Looks like Lockwood could be claiming the back-to-the-future prize for the best cargo cult scientist. And of course, this event will be confined to just England and the rest of the world will not change. /sarc off
There is no mention of the oceanic cycles. We’ve now entered the cool phase of the PDO and in all likelyhood soon be entering the cool phase of the AMO.
As I understand it the suns influence on our climatic patterns are far from understood and as with the AGW require full scientific rigure. ie prediction and observational verification.
From what I’ve read the weather events that we see today are similar to those that occured 60 years ago when the PDO shifted from its warm phase to its cool phase as be happening over the past few years. “Horn of Africa hit by worst drought in 60 years”
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14020452
“Britain’s Shame: MPs Tell Poor Countries – No More Power For You”
http://thegwpf.org/best-of-blogs/3355-britains-shame-mps-tell-poor-countries–no-more-power-for-you.html
M.A.Vukcevic says:
July 5, 2011 at 11:22 am
While at the matters solar, latest numbers from the WSO show the Sun’s polar magnetic field is stuck, with no progress in the last 6 months.
It has decreased 20% [when considering the correct 20nHz filtering]
Is Dr. Lockwood @Co. writing an important study which should be base for a serious scientific evaluation or a fairy tale?
The answer is clearly shown here Maunder CET
I also recommend:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/07/05/study-solar-activity-lull-increases-chances-of-cold-uk-winters/#comment-694652
starzmom says:
July 5, 2011 at 6:01 am
“How does Barbara Boxer feel about the current ski season? Last I heard the slopes were still open in some parts of California, and if they weren’t, it wasn’t for lack of snow. Maybe all the ski instructors had to leave to go teach surfing somewhere.”
Heard a radio interview with a Colorado skier skiing on 4th of July yesterday. This may be one of few industries that will prosper in the coming colder winters, if the snow holds up. Crops are historically the main problem in a solar minimum and the resultant famines, disease and even war.
Leif Svalgaard says:
July 5, 2011 at 10:25 am
I’ll agree that there is no current Grand Solar Maximum, not with the Sun sinking daily into it’s funk.
But, we do need referece points, and labels help communications, so I’m for keeping the Modern Maximum as it stood (it’s over).
Today’s STEREO BEHIND image reminds me of rift zones, as if coronal hole valleys are being actively torn new ones.
Ulric Lyons says:
July 5, 2011 at 9:20 am
Average monthly winter temperatures in the UK range around three times as much as in summer.
What measure are you using to support this assertion. Over the last 30 years winter has varied slightly more than summer but not appreciably so. I haven’t looked over the longer term but as we’ve already noted, during solar minima winter temperatures fell significantly while summer temperatures remained relatively constant so, quite naturally, winter temperatures will cover a greater range – but that’s due to the very effect we’re describing
RobertvdL says:
July 5, 2011 at 1:37 am
Great Britain does not produce cold in winter nor heat in summer. To have cold winters the cold has to come from the north. To have hot summers the heat has to come from the south. If cold escapes from the north warm air must flow in from the south.
So I predict less sea ice on the North Pole if Britain gets colder in winter.
—————————————————————————————————————————
So, during glaciations (ice ages) when much of Britain was under a mile of ice, the N polar regions enjoyed tropical-plus temperatures. Really?
pat says:
July 5, 2011 at 6:21 am
“Piers Corbyn at Weather Action can claim any success with this summer’s forecast.
He argued consistently that Summer 2011 would be unsettled because of, in part, continued weak solar activity, which would at times push the Jet stream further south than normal.”
………………………………..
If whatever anomaly linking the dearth of sunspots to colder temps only produces subtle changes like this, then it is possible for the ‘global average temperature” to be unaffected. But what is the practical effect? If the poles are a few degrees ‘less cold’ (better phrase than ‘warmer’), it has no impact on Man, and little impact at the poles. That the mid-latitudes are significantly colder, though, has a huge impact on Man. Which just underscores the obvious, yet deliberately ignored, fact that global averages are a poor way to measure any impact of climate. It’s about like using tree rings to guesstimate past global climes. A bear doing what he does in the woods would have more impact on a tree than a heat wave in the South Pacific. The only climate that impacts a localized area is the localized climate.
Regardless, for what it’s worth, I think we are warming the earth by a fraction of a degree which is lost in the noise of climate variability, and the positive reinforcements programmed into the climate models have been proven wrong. I also think that Man is going to suffer through a couple of decades of a colder climate in the areas of the world which most affect him.
Unfortunately, if I am right, we will have decades of most of us shouting how cold we are, while those sold on AGW will be yelling how warm it is at the poles. Since the average Joe believes what he is experiencing, the-world-is-colder group will win the PR battle, but the global warmists will have enough’proof’ to see them through the cold spell.
If the Poles warm (less cold), and the Temperate Zones cool (less warm), that is a distinct global cooling event. The Poles are only equally projected on certain maps, but in reality they occupy far less real space. In plain simple English: Not the Zero-Sum game.
Just saw this now.. so disregard my “tip”. Basically they’re arguing that the low solar activity causes a negative Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillation pattern to develop. They also mention Greenland being warmer during the Maunder minimum, which is unlikely. But they are largely correct in warning that low solar activity doesn’t necessarily mean cold winters every year. The number one climate shift during low solar activity is towards unpredictability. The blocky jet stream causes periods of intense colds, but can also bring intense heat waves and droughts. What was so great about the Medieval Warm Period for Europe was not warm winters, but consistent climate. Winters tended to be milder and wetter (and stormier) while summers were predictably warm and dry. With recharged soil moisture in fall, winter, and spring, cereal crops and warm weather crops like grapes thrived in England. Obviously the increase in La Niña conditions and a more zonal, stronger jet stream that pulled northward didn’t benefit everyone. The desert SW and Mexico suffered droughts that helped bring down civilizations.
Today an article in ‘The Australian’ (aka, ‘Our policy is to give climate change believers the benefit of the doubt becuase we’re too impotent to do any real analysis’), by the usual suspects is claiming that the current climate stasis is China’s fault, as all that coal burning pollution is blocking out the sun all over the world. This is in response to the recent report by Mann, which The Australian (aka, ‘Who needs debate when we’ve got Tim Flannery’), never bothered to report on in the first place. So they have published a ludicrous knee-jerk reply to an argument that their readers would not even have seen. Thus is the standard of public debate and information dispersal in Australia’s major journals.
So how could a solar minimum force conditions colder overall for tempeate to polar zones?
Just look at how Antarctica works, being mostly isolated from the rest of the planet. All that we need is to move the Jet Streams.
Isolating Polar to Temperate zones from the Subtropics to Equator would leave an interesting situation.The Polar regions would be less cold (still too darn-blasted cold for us) and incur more precipitation, which the Temperate regions would be open to only Polar Incursions, but be isolated from warmer air toward the Equator. You might grow an Ice Age under such circumstances.
Might, but that’s not in evidence…that we know of…. yet.
A lingering problem would then be: How did the Earth get to two Snowball epochs? Moving the Jet Streams doesn’t get the job done.