From the Institute of Physics
More than 1 in 10 chance of colder UK winters
As the Sun enters a period of low solar activity over the next 50 years, new research has calculated the probability of unusually cold winter temperatures occurring in the UK.
Last year, the same group of researchers, from the University of Reading, linked colder winters in Europe to low solar activity and predicted that the Sun is moving into a particularly low period of activity, meaning the UK will experience more cold winters in the future – potentially similar to those experienced in the Maunder minimum at the end of the 17th century.
The new research, published today, Tuesday 5 July 2011, in IOP Publishing’s journal Environmental Research Letters, supports recent suggestions that sunspot activity is waning, and goes further, using the behaviour of the Sun over the last 9300 years to predict the probabilities of future solar changes.
Over the next 50 years, the researchers show that the probability of the Sun returning to Maunder minimum conditions is about 10 per cent, raising the chances that the average winter temperature will fall below 2.5 oC to around 1 in 7, assuming all other factors, including man-made effects and El Niño, remain constant.
Put in context, the average UK winter temperature for the last 20 years has been 5.04 oC, however the last three winters have averaged 3.50 °C, 2.53 °C and 3.13 °C, with 2009/10 being the 14th coldest in the last 160 years.
The increased probability of colder winters could hold great value for national infrastructure planning by government organisations who have struggled to adapt to the extreme weather conditions experienced in the UK over the past two years.
It is stressed, however, that these results do not have any implications for global climate change, which is concerned with average temperatures for all parts of the world and all times of year. The reported changes only apply in winter and are regional – for example, when the winter is colder in Europe it tends to be warmer in Greenland so that there is almost no effect on the global mean.
These studies obtained the average temperatures between December and February for the past 352 years from the Central England Temperature (CET) data series – the world’s longest instrumental temperature record, maintained by the UK Met Office, extending back to 1659.
This data set was combined with records of the Sun’s activity obtained through the analysis of ‘cosmogenic isotopes’, which are specific types of carbon and beryllium that are known to be influenced by the Sun.
The magnetic field of the Sun protects the Earth from galactic cosmic rays, which, as they hit the Earth’s atmosphere, generate the cosmogenic isotopes which are then deposited in tree trunks and ice sheets. These cosmogenic isotopes can be collected and dated providing a unique insight into the Sun’s variability on timescales ranging from years to millennia.
Data from the cosmogenic isotopes suggests that we are currently coming to the end of a grand solar maximum – a period of intense activity in the Sun – and will therefore experience lower solar activity conditions in future,.
Many researchers have argued that temperature changes attributed to the Sun are, in reality, just caused by the internal variability of the climate system; however, the authors have used this 352-year temperature record to show that there is some, albeit small, predictive skill to be gained from solar activity despite it being just one of a number of factors that influence UK weather.
One mechanism that suggests a link between the Sun and recent cold winters is ‘blocking’. Low solar activity causes extensive anticyclones that persist for several weeks in the Atlantic Ocean, causing the warm westerly winds to be replaced by cold, continental north-easterly winds. Depending on the position of the anticyclone, this can also lead to clear skies at night causing the land to cool even further.
Lead author Professor Mike Lockwood said, “Our results show that over the next fifty years there is a 10 per cent chance that temperatures will return to Maunder minimum levels. Describing the Maunder minimum as a ‘little ice age’ is somewhat misleading however.
“Cold winters were indeed more common during the Maunder minimum but there were also some very warm ones between them, summers were not colder, and the drop in average temperatures was not nearly as great, nor as global, as during a real ice age.”
From Tuesday 5 July (when the link goes active) this journal paper can be found at http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/6/3/034004
h/t to reader “a jones”
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“It is stressed, however, that these results do not have any implications for global climate change, which is concerned with average temperatures for all parts of the world and all times of year. The reported changes only apply in winter and are regional – for example, when the winter is colder in Europe it tends to be warmer in Greenland so that there is almost no effect on the global mean.”
The usual caveat, So solar influences are only pertinant to the UK. I dont think so!
I think we can see here, and in other recent studies how climate scientists are going to back down.
“It is stressed, however, that these results do not have any implications for global climate change”
Counter “consensus” ideas followed by the disclaimer. In other (Orwellian?) words it’s getting colder but it’s still getting warmer.
Gosh Anthony! So much good reading, and not the time to keep up with it properly atm. I hope to come back to it all next week.
It is stressed, however, that these results do not have any implications for global climate change, which is concerned with average temperatures for all parts of the world and all times of year. The reported changes only apply in winter and are regional – for example, when the winter is colder in Europe it tends to be warmer in Greenland so that there is almost no effect on the global mean.
Translation, AGW is rubbish but if we say that we get no funding so we are towing the party line.
Funny how the global temps were really lower last winter during and after Britains big freeze.
Interesting that galactic cosmic particles are used to measure periods of quiet magnetic blocking by the Sun. However slowly, the physics may leak out in our lifetime and especially within the lifetime of Svenmark.
We best get those windmills up……
Pronto……….
Especially for the coldest days in the middle of the winters to come…….
“It is stressed, however, that these results do not have any implications for global climate change, which is concerned with average temperatures for all parts of the world and all times of year.”
The above quote sounds like the statement of a heretic before the Grand Inquisitor…….’We want to do science but must not offend the Authorities!’ Just a few more observations and they may be able to extend their research to summers as well and eventually clear up the whole mess.
ntesdorf
“….Cold winters were indeed more common during the Maunder minimum but there were also some very warm ones between them, summers were not colder, and the drop in average temperatures was not nearly as great, nor as global, as during a real ice age….”
And very comforting indeed it must be to UK residents to be reassured there is no likelihood that the winter temperature in the next ~50 years will drop say 10°C, particularly since the country faces a “colossal energy gap”:
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news/article-1361316/250bn-wind-power-industry-greatest-scam-age.html
So the Sun, and not only human emissions of CO2, is a factor in climate change on this 3rd rock from the Sun? Well it’s worse than they thought (For their funding)!
For proof of how cold it was here last winter – ask almost any gardener.
Some brave souls round here like to grow ‘Monkey Puzzles’ (Arucaria) ) (sp) Almost all trees local to here have (what looks like) been badly burned and young trees with shallow root systems entirely killed. My local garden centre lost his entire stock – about one dozen 2 meter tall specimens he was selling for £150 ea (they were still in pots)
Also, most Eucalyptus (species Gunnii- I think) have been killed, I had a mature tree (over 25 years old) and this last winter killed it. Young trees are throwing up new shoots but older ones can’t do that.
It was cold.
they really are a bit of a giggle aren’t they, these warmist carpetbaggers. They cannot be seen to abandon the cause and risk open public ridicule to which there would be no comeback so they ‘fineagle the truth’ as the Irish put it (NEWS FLASH – MILDER THAN USUAL RIDICULE HEAPED UPON WARMIST BACKTRACKERS. )
I mean a Solar minimum only affecting the UK. What Western Europe misses out too? Isle of Wight – Hot – Cold? The Channel Islands ??
Thishas all the hallmarks of making the French and German retreats from Moscow seem like a slight detour.
But UKCIP, with its super computer models, is predicting warmer, wetter winters for the UK
Steeptown says:
July 5, 2011 at 3:58 am
It’s true–emphasize the “warmer” algorithm and the “wetter” algorithm and completely misinterpret the solar algorithm (or leave it out altogether) and that’s what the high-tech box will spit out–exactly what the “researchers” were looking for–just the opposite of reality.
No doubt about it, they’re compelled to genuflect in the general direction of global warming.
Don’t expect Richard Black of the BBC to report any of this, he only seems to do warmist stuff. I’d love to know what his connections to the AGW gang are, he seems to post up anything related to them pretty damned fast!
Not a peep out of him about the recent climate conference either.
The new tax to solve this problem with the Sun (probably man made) can be called Maunder Money, or has that already be used by the Queen.
‘It is stressed, however, that these results do not have any implications for global climate change, which is concerned with average temperatures for all parts of the world and all times of year. The reported changes only apply in winter and are regional – for example, when the winter is colder in Europe it tends to be warmer in Greenland so that there is almost no effect on the global mean.’
So as far as regions are concerned cooling in one region is offset by warming in another and has no overall effect on global temperatures, but as far as warming is concerned there are no cooler regions to offset the warming! So the prediction of land based ice loss giving increased sea level rise has of course taken into account the increase in land based ice in other regions, not.
Notice how they bend over backwards to emphasize that colder winters in the UK have no effect on global temperature because Greenland would be warmer and it all averages out.
There is absolutely no evidence that Greenland was warmer when the winters in the UK were colder during the Maunder minimum.
That assertion is therefore complete nonsense, bordering on dissembling. Clearly designed to avoid the otherwise obvious conclusion that actually the Sun has a rather more important effect than anything men could do.
So if, according to Prof Lockwood, we might perhaps prudently prepare for ‘more of the same’ in the coming winter – note the hint to local councils in the UK, who need to plan how much grit they might need come the snow – what can he or his colleagues tell us about the present ‘summer’? Because it ain’t warm in the UK, never mind hot …
But..but…snow is going to be a distant memory!
Nice to know that GB has its own special little micro-climate. I suppose that leaves no place for CET in the “instrumental record” as any past increase in CET cannot imply global warming.
Anthony,
Interesting how the sun’s heat has not changed. Just the solar activity.
Yet we still fail to study changes of pressure on this planet which generates many an anomaly.
From ocean salt changes to the shifting ocean heat and the failing of oceans to pick up more solar radiation, which is being deflected.
A stretched atmosphere is the boom and bust cycle of Ice Ages.
No,No,No- it’s not the sun, it’s China causing the cooling…
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/04/us-climate-sulphur-idUSTRE7634IQ20110704
not everyone gets the memo(s)
some torturous logic here from the warmist priest.
The authors are making a typical warmist argument from ignorance.
The CET dataset covers the Maunder, which was the most recent example of a low sunspot driven cool period.
There is no dataset which covers the same period for Greenland.
However there is more recent data which shows an inverse corellation between Greenland and England winter intensity.
To claim that this correlation will also exist in the low solar activity conditions is an argument from ignorance, which is typical of warmies who treat their hysterical post normal faith as though it were the nuill hypothetical position.
Its similar to their previous claims of ‘unprecented’ warming in an absence of data which could provide any information either way.
Their further claim that these cold conditions weren’t global is simmilarly unsound, as we simply dont have data to make a claim either way. Common sense would suggest that cosmogenic cloud forcing is likely to affect the whole globe, of course warmists arent famous for common sense.
The climatic effects of the Dalton Minimum( 1795-1830) are well recorded and I recall a report stating that 7 out of 10 winters in large areas of the Northern Hemisphere, at the very least, had severe winters.The last Frost Fairs on the Thames happened during the Dalton Minimum
Colder winters?!!! The world is warming up, the sea levels are rising!
The wizard of Oz
http://fenbeagleblog.wordpress.com/2011/07/05/ivery-towers/