Bastardi on learning from the past

Joe publishes an essay in the  State College newspaper which Mann reads looking for anything that might question his hockey stick theory. – Anthony

Can America Last? Only If We Use the Lessons of the Past

by Joe Bastardi

Click for Image GalleryIf you knew about the climate and nation’s weather the way I have to, you would see the links between what happened from 1925 to 1950 and what is going on now. During that time, we were in a warm version of the Pacific Ocean, the Atlantic turned warm, and the weather went haywire. And there were other challenges as great as the weather facing the nation.

I get a kick out of those blaming carbon dioxide for the weather problems. Why? Because it has happened before and will happen again. The Earth has been going through 30 years of a warm Pacific Ocean; that reversed in 2007 and, lo and behold, weather similar to the last time it happened showed up. Tornado deaths in this nation were greatest in the 1950s, for instance. And there have been far worse tornado disasters worldwide spread out evenly over the centuries.

My suggestion as to the answer comes from the book of Ecclesiastes: There is nothing new under the sun. Of course, that would not sit well with anyone wishing to save the planet from man-made demons in the air – and getting paid to do so.

And by the way, while proponents of global warming claim that all this wild weather is consistent with their models – which unknown to many are starting to forecast global cooling, though they won’t tell you that yet – it is also consistent with what happens in the weather when any given pattern changes.

read the full article here

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Common sense from the heart from Joe.
Glad there’s no paywall for the State College website.

John Marshall

Total truth from Mr Bastardi.

charles nelson

When we were kids my Daddy told us that once Lough Neagh (N.Ireland) froze solid and that somebody drove a tractor out across it. We only half believed him, he might have been pulling our leg.
Fifty-ish years later it happened again! Sadly I wasn’t there to see it.
I remember very clearly the article promising ‘snow will be a thing of the past’….a little alarm bell went off in my head…that was my wakeup call…how could ‘anyone’ have made such an idiotic claim? I began to look more closely at ‘Global Warming’ .
You’re right, History is a great educator.
Also we must keep reminding the Warmists of their claims and predictions each time they fail to materialize…that’s history too!
Maybe even…… ‘evidence’.

jack morrow

Thank goodness we have people like Joe and this site to put out dissenting information from the folks like Gore and Mann. Can you imagine what it would be like to only have their side presented and their solutions to save us? We’re close to that now.

But where are your models?
How can you call yourself a real scientist if you haven’t created a model which proves your assertions.
Come on! Just saying: “it’s like the 1950s” isn’t good enough …. you’ve got to say: “we have modelled the climate using a 5th china-squared cubic splice and according to our models the climate today is the same as the 1950s and it will all end in doomsday and pestilence if we don’t get more money to model the model of the models that show that the 1950s was not nearly so good as it was today because of the lack of models of models showing that the past was much better than the future”
…. that way you’ll be believed.

There was a sarc off there … but I obviously didn’t model it well because it disappeared!

fredb

Joe: You make a sweeping statement “… which unknown to many are starting to forecast global cooling, though they won’t tell you that yet”
I know some modelers, and have not heard this. Could you substantiate your statement please with some reference or evidence?

Latitude

Why? Because it has happened before and will happen again.
=======================================================
Not much has changed with people either….
…since the beginning of time, we’ve always had people that tried to make a living off doom and gloom predictions
and claiming they could fix it with sacrifices
Only the names have changed…
…we used to call them witch doctors and shaman

Mycroft

Good article Joe,keep punching away.
Surprised any like this would be allowed with the name PENN on it,
can just imagine certain people reading this over breakfast and spitting out their cornflakes
and “shouting get me the editor” LOL 🙂 🙂 way to go Joe.

Publius

Don’t you know that metereologists — who merely live and breathe the data — are not ‘real scientists.’ But Mother Nature seems to ignore the models.

Elizabeth (not the Queen)

Living in northern Canada, it mystifies me that people would desire a cooler planet. There doesn’t seem to be any awareness or understanding of the challenges we face. We need to stop wasting time on this obsession with CO2 and put our efforts into better alternative energy sources. The real catastrophy will occur when we are not able to keep warm or grow food.

charles nelson says:
June 28, 2011 at 5:51 am
“When we were kids my Daddy told us that once Lough Neagh (N.Ireland) froze solid and that somebody drove a tractor out across it. We only half believed him, he might have been pulling our leg.
Fifty-ish years later it happened again! Sadly I wasn’t there to see it.”
Luckily this is the information age where almost every event is captured and posted online, If seeing is believing feast your eyes on this short videos below.
A frozen Lough Neagh at Ballyronan, Winter 2010

And Waite theres more!!
Part 1

Part 2

———————————————————————————-
I’d trust Joe Bastardi I saw him on the Colbert report ripping some CAGW Proponent a new one early this year.

The Earth has been going through 30 years of a warm Pacific Ocean; that reversed in 2007 and, lo and behold, weather similar to the last time it happened showed up.
Thirty years again. That sounds familiar. Looks like we have another two decades of cooling to go.

Greg Holmes

Hello everyone, in 1949 the village where I was born was closed for 6 weeks due to snowfall, people could only leave their houses via the upsatirs bedroom windows. I missed that one, but I was around in 1963, 9 feet thick ice on our local lake, cars driving on it amazing. The scare then was a new ice age, we would all have to migrate south. No one had heard of models of climate, it was just the weather, sometimes I long for those days to return, the war was not long over and bu**shit was at a minimum.

JKB

From the full article:
“Recall five years ago the lamentations about no snow in the Rockies, and, of course, the blame was global warming. Now that it’s snowing, it’s global warming. Drought, floods, anything under the sun is global warming.”
Anything under the sun but not the sun itself is global warming. The solar cycles, etc. have nothing to do with global warming. It is all due to a trace gas. No, it’s true. Just ask them, they’ll tell you, quite indignantly too.

John F. Hultquist

I wonder what prompted this submission to StateCollege.Com and, also, is there a print edition? Was he asked by a new editor? It has a large readership – and we assume they are well educated. Joe has written about these issue before so the information is not new, although the wordsmithing seems improved. Maybe other media outlets will pick it up. Hope so. However, the small map accompanying the article appears to come from information provided at the link below. I did not see a way to the yearly maps.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/drought/historical-palmers.php

CodeTech

Learning from the past? Pfft… that’s so old-school. Next someone’s going to tell us we should learn from our mistakes too. Or, Just the other day I heard someone suggest that someone older might actually know something that I don’t. Can you imagine? Ridiculous. I mean, we have the internet! We know EVERYTHING! And everyone knows that all data on the internet is completely valid and accurate, and old paper documents are complete crap.
1930s. That can’t be. I saw somewhere on the internet that it wasn’t actually warm back then, it was just “deniers” making that up. Or it was warm in the US, but the rest of the world was in blissful, beautiful, perfect balance, just like everything is, always, until CO2 comes along and wrecks it. Those eeeeevil oil companies and those eeeeeevil capitalists, ruining everything. Serves ’em right.
(no, no, don’t tell me this “needs” a /sarc tag!)

jungle

I don’t need a model to know that we have been here before. Being involved in agriculture and observing weather changes and how the climate affects the business I am in go hand in hand. My dad always talked that the 1950’s were some of the wettest years he ever saw,especially 1954. Now in Western Canada we are having two of the wettest years on record. Why because of La Nina and a change in the flow of the jet stream. Not because of an increase in CO2. We have many cycles within cycles that affect the climate and blaming every weather event on CO2 or Globull warming is ludicrous. Good common sense article.

Brian in Bellingham

Joe has tweeted before about the models now showing cooling instead of warming. That piques my curiosity, I wish he would provide some details. That would be pretty significant.

Everything changes but everything remains the same

rbateman

Climate models that forecast global cooling well after the fact are about as useless as attempting to negotiate a tight turn with the steering wheel locked. They will fail no matter which way the system turns, because they contain no AI that can learn. That should be a hint to stop wasting billions in taxpayer money on a lemon.

Eyes Wide Open

“while proponents of global warming claim that all this wild weather is consistent with their models”.
Well we know that anything and everything is consistent with their models isn’t it?
Call it Climate Anything! (or Climate Everything!)

DCC

“And by the way, while proponents of global warming claim that all this wild weather is consistent with their models – which unknown to many are starting to forecast global cooling, though they won’t tell you that yet…”
Could you elaborate on that, Joe? Are you saying that the models are actually predicting the lack of warming since about 1995-1998? That’s news to me and must make Trenberth very happy. But how was that accomplished?

Jimbo

Joe Bastardi
“Recall five years ago the lamentations about no snow in the Rockies, and, of course, the blame was global warming. Now that it’s snowing, it’s global warming. Drought, floods, anything under the sun is global warming.”

Yes, many here do recall those days. Back in May, with the early arrival of Spring, Western snowpack was at a record level. This was also caused by global warming. / sarc
Where has Joe’s blog gone?

MikeP

I looked at the comments section. It’s good to see that the majority of literate Penn State students seem brighter than their instructors.

John from CA

Great post — let’s hope farmers are paying attention. The Dust Bowl occurred in the 30’s and we don’t need another one.

Pull My Finger

Statecollege.com is a community website/message board, not the local paper (a McClatchey Paper) or university newspaper or web site. Those are the Centre Daily Times and the Daily Collegian.

Jimbo

For anyone interested there’s lots of historical references for bad weather below. Once we get c02 down to below 350ppm the weather will once again be normal. /sarc
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/bad-weather/
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/historical-references/

Joe Bastardi wrote: “The Earth has been going through 30 years of a warm Pacific Ocean; that reversed in 2007 and, lo and behold, weather similar to the last time it happened showed up.”
What reversed in 2007? The Sea Surface Temperature anomalies for the Pacific Ocean as a whole didn’t magically shift in 2007:
http://i53.tinypic.com/2j2gvna.jpg
It didn’t happen in the North Pacific:
http://i52.tinypic.com/23kaws2.jpg
And there was no magic switch in the temperature of the North Pacific north of 20N, which is the area used to determine the Pacific Decadal Oscillation:
http://i54.tinypic.com/4uyn4j.jpg
The 2007/08 La Niña started in 2007:
http://i56.tinypic.com/izxm2x.jpg
But there was no “reversal”.

Wil

I am stunned. I truly am. Everyone one of those Global Warming hypocrites live down in the warm zones of this planet. None of them live up North here in Canada where I live and work. I’ve lived all of my life in this climate – I’ve been to the places everyone talks about, the high Arctic. I’ve lived in Labrador, I’ve been on that drifting ice seal hunting. I’ve chiseled down third feet in the ice and had to make ice steps to get down that far and never did find a bottom. Thank God I didn’t otherwise the water would have blasted upward like a geyser.
Trust me – in cold winter weather you have to increase you calorie intake by thousands of calories a day just to stay the same weight. I’ve seen southerners who think they know how the world works up here lose thirty pounds in just 200 miles of travel. Then they get on an aircraft and run back south never to see them again. Then suddenly THEY are the experts? I’ve worked my butts off as a lad (my first job) trying to keep those fools alive and NOW they are the experts? The very same people who live their lives in warm zones playing with their computer generated graphs in shirt sleeves with air conditioners on are claiming to be climate geniuses? Satellites overhead you say? Right – trust me here on the ground its a whole new world no satellite can ever relate to a human. Up here weather changes in a heartbeat and will kill you as fast. How many I wonder have ever set foot in these areas so discussed here and on so many other sites on a daily basis? Anyone? Actually traveled on the land away from civilization? Canada is millions of squared miles and much of Canada is the areas discussed here. Who here has been there? And actually understands why paper/computer graphs and reality have never yet met in any universe so constructed by the “experts.”

Regarding the request for models predicting cooling: I know when Joe was still working for accuweather.com he showed some of the seasonal models that showed cooling. He mentioned them by name and showed their graphics, said to “google them”, but I could never find any except NOAA’s seasonal outlook.

rbateman

Another lesson from history that I got from reading the Literture from the cooling/colder periods of the past:
Whenever there was a severe economic downturn/economic gloom it was immediately followed by a climate change with a detrimental impact to agriculture. The lesson is that greed preceeds the turn of climate. Whom should this interest? Those whose field of study includes the behavior of man that is passed down over millenia of direct experience. Those who dwell at the precipice of a return to poverty and squalor of the masses should the lights go out on Science.
It is in the best interests of the US to avoid this slippery slope of ignorance.

RockyRoad

Publius says:
June 28, 2011 at 6:55 am

Don’t you know that metereologists — who merely live and breathe the data — are not ‘real scientists.’ But Mother Nature seems to ignore the models.

You’re right, and I’ve given the “experts” in the field a name: “climsci”–as in not quite “climate” (more politics than anything else), and certainly not quite “science” (a collection of post normal, lazy, irreproducible fudging). Put them together and you have “climsci”, like that climsci Michael Mann.

M White

The BBCs Richard Black on Climate models
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-13909380

R. Gates

We can’t say for certain that any individual event was or wasn’t caused by any other specifc event, but there are a few inconsistences in Joe’s thinking, and this seems to hold true for many positions taken up by skeptics. These arguments can be stated as:
1. If X caused Y in the past, then if Y happens in the future it can only be caused by X.
or said another way:
2. If Y happened in the past, and is Y is happening now, it must have the same cause.
Other unprovable inconsistencies would be:
3. The dynamics of weather patterns will repeat themselves in exactly the same way over time. (even though the composition of the atmosphere, the position of the earth in Milankovitch cycles, the position of the solar system in the galaxy, the solar output, the level of GCRs, the amount of volcanic activity, the earth’s magnetic field, the position of the continents, etc. etc. etc. will never be exactly the same way twice.)
It is interesting to note that even though Joe may not think anthropogenic climate change is happening or the cause of the above average amount of extreme weather we’ve been having, one of the largest insurance companies in the world, who has billions at stake on getting this right, disagrees with Joe and has put a lot of effort into researching this, namely Munich Re. See:
http://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news/1934684/munich-warns-soaring-climate-change-costs
So Joe might be telling his clients there’s nothing to worry about, this is all a “normal” cycle of things, (i.e. x caused y in the past and so x, and only x, must be causing y now), but Munich Re is telling its clients that we they expecting to see more frequent occurances of extreme weather, (i.e. this isn’t the world it was a hundred years ago and climate related risks are increasing)
3.

Thanks Joe, great article!

twawki: The trouble is, everything doesn’t remain the same. In the ’30s our ruling class and academics had a firm grasp on reality. They knew the difference between facts and fantasy, knew when to say “I don’t know.”
Now they’re all absolute wacked-out psychopaths in the entire English-speaking world, with a tiny tiny tiny handful of namable exceptions. Right now the only sane people with any degree of power are James Inhofe and Janusz Lewandowski. Can two men save us? I doubt it.

30 years is a long time, and some apparently sought to use this long period to grab control over all of us. But the more we see, the more we read, the more we observe, it appears their window of opportunity is ending. And that may explain why they are getting so desperate and strident in their denunciations of both skeptics and data. And why their rhetoric is becoming so 1984ish.

R. Gates says:
June 28, 2011 at 11:37 am

Sorry R, he made no such assertion. He did say the “pattern” would repeat, but he never said it ” will repeat themselves in exactly the same way over time.”. That is your strawman. Perhaps you would like to discuss the issue at hand and not put words into Mr. Bastardi’s mouth?

stephen richards

fredb says:
June 28, 2011 at 6:35 am
Joe: You make a sweeping statement “… which unknown to many are starting to forecast global cooling, though they won’t tell you that yet”
Look at the NCEP model for this coming winter. New la niña with below normal temps right across the Arctic.
R Gates again. Joe gets it right every time by looking at complex past weather and climate parametres. You can be soooooo blind at times. OR in english, blinkered.

stephen richards

I wanted to call him a prat but decided not to be rude. It’s not the ‘french way’.

Tom in Florida

R. Gates says:
June 28, 2011 at 11:37 am
“It is interesting to note that even though Joe may not think anthropogenic climate change is happening or the cause of the above average amount of extreme weather we’ve been having, one of the largest insurance companies in the world, who has billions at stake on getting this right, disagrees with Joe and has put a lot of effort into researching this, namely Munich Re. See:
http://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news/1934684/munich-warns-soaring-climate-change-costs
So Joe might be telling his clients there’s nothing to worry about, this is all a “normal” cycle of things, (i.e. x caused y in the past and so x, and only x, must be causing y now), but Munich Re is telling its clients that we they expecting to see more frequent occurances of extreme weather, (i.e. this isn’t the world it was a hundred years ago and climate related risks are increasing)”
Gates, you have absolutely swallowed the kool aid. If you think that insurance companies have anything in mind other than producing a reason to raise rates then you must be blind to everyone with an agenda. Citing an insurance company that says they are expecting greater risks as a reason to believe that those risks are likely to happen is, without being too offensive, just stupid. They have “billions at stake” sure, hoping to collect billions of extra premiums by making everyone believe it could happen and pocketing the profits when they don’t. I really thought you were wiser than that.

CodeTech

R. Gates says:
We can’t say for certain that any individual event was or wasn’t caused by any other specifc event, but there are a few inconsistences in Joe’s thinking, and this seems to hold true for many positions taken up by skeptics. These arguments can be stated as:
1. If X caused Y in the past, then if Y happens in the future it can only be caused by X.
or said another way:
2. If Y happened in the past, and is Y is happening now, it must have the same cause.

See, this is why you’re on the wrong side of this debate.
You think you’re seeing a logical inconsistency here, but in fact it’s the warmist side that has the logic problem.
I have yet to hear a realist claim that anything “can only be caused by” anything. Ever. I’ve heard ONLY warmists make this claim… ie, “weather is messed up, it can only be caused by CO2”.
The fact is, it’s been cool, and it’s been warm. The alarmists seem unable to avoid extrapolating upward or downward curves into straight skyrocketing lines. Realists recognize that for about as long as humans have been recording weather, these things oscillate, and go in cycles. Some we can identify, some not so much. Alarmists get all alarmed at, first cooling, then warming, then “CHANGE”.

Other unprovable inconsistencies would be:
3. The dynamics of weather patterns will repeat themselves in exactly the same way over time. (even though the composition of the atmosphere, the position of the earth in Milankovitch cycles, the position of the solar system in the galaxy, the solar output, the level of GCRs, the amount of volcanic activity, the earth’s magnetic field, the position of the continents, etc. etc. etc. will never be exactly the same way twice.)

Since “moderate republican” started trolling here and getting schooled on the “strawman” concept, I’m amazed that you would so rapidly do the same. Nobody has ever said anything will be “exactly the same”. That’s one of the most ridiculous strawmen I’ve yet seen set up. But you did it. Congratulations.

It is interesting to note that even though Joe may not think anthropogenic climate change is happening or the cause of the above average amount of extreme weather we’ve been having, one of the largest insurance companies in the world, who has billions at stake on getting this right, disagrees with Joe and has put a lot of effort into researching this, namely Munich Re. See:
(link)
So Joe might be telling his clients there’s nothing to worry about, this is all a “normal” cycle of things, (i.e. x caused y in the past and so x, and only x, must be causing y now), but Munich Re is telling its clients that we they expecting to see more frequent occurances of extreme weather, (i.e. this isn’t the world it was a hundred years ago and climate related risks are increasing)

Actually, it’s even more interesting to note that as a person who, presumeably, lives in the first world, you can’t comprehend that Insurance companies have IMMENSE amounts to gain from climate alarm. They can raise rates for “increased risk” and laugh (at you) all the way to the bank. Insurance companies are NOT hurting. In fact, their records are likely more complete than anyone’s when it comes to extreme weather events, and I’m absolutely positive that they’re giggling on a daily basis.

StuartMcL

R. Gates says:
June 28, 2011 at 11:37 am
…one of the largest insurance companies in the world, who has billions at stake on getting this right, … but Munich Re is telling its clients that we they expecting to see more frequent occurances of extreme weather, (i.e. this isn’t the world it was a hundred years ago and climate related risks are increasing)
===================================================
On the contrary, it’s in Munich Re’s interests to grossly exaggerate the risks so that they can increase their premiums without increased payouts.

theBuckWheat

“…while proponents of global warming claim that all this wild weather is consistent with their models …”
What wild weather shows is just how wide the range of “normal” really is.

Latitude

Why do warmest act like the dust bowl never happened?

crosspatch

Speaking of Mr. Bastardi,
I really miss seeing his postings at AccuWeather and I followed them for a while at WeatherBell but can’t anymore because the payment is too steep. While the fee might be worthwhile for the array of products they offer, I was only interested in the blogging and the fee is too steep just to follow someone’s comments.
I miss reading Mr. Bastardi’s stuff.

Caleb

.The fee is not too steep just to follow someone’s comments, when the comments are Mr. Bastardi’s. It costs $16.99/month, which means I have to go without gossip at the local market, and instead of buying a large coffee at $1.75, brew my own coffee at home, for around 20 days a month. I can catch up on the gossip during the other ten days.
I did save some money by dropping my subscription to Accuweather professional, after Bastardi left, but the increase in gas and oil prices more than ate that up.
Wait a second. Coffee prices may be going up 2%, due to frost in Brazil. (For tips and notes)
http://www.weatherbell.com/weather-news/frost-reports-in-brazil-cause-increase-in-coffee-prices/
That means I’d have to go without gossip 21 days. I sure hope Mr. Bastardi appreciates the sacrifices people must make.

If the atmosphere could have warmed the oceans, it had thousands of years since the end of the last ice age to do so.
Anyone claiming that the atmosphere can warm the oceans is either a fool, an advocate or on the AGW gravy train.

JPeden

DCC says:
Could you elaborate on that, Joe? Are you saying that the models are actually predicting the lack of warming since about 1995-1998? That’s news to me and must make Trenberth very happy. But how was that accomplished?
My answer: in Climate Science postdiction = prediction, donchaknow. Just add to “the physics” the “elegant” [R. Gates] delayed retroactive negative feedback of AGW upon atmospheric CO2 concentrations which reduces CO2’s net forcing even while CO2 is increasing – which any respectable mental Time Machine should be able to pull off – thus allowing increasing CO2 concentrations to force cooling [h/t Pat Frank]: ~”more rain due to AGW causes more weathering action upon atmospheric CO2 to form CaCO3, which thus acts to reduce atmospheric CO2 concentration after the atmospheric temp. has stopped rising and even turned to cooling, but also at the same time when atmospheric CO2 concentration is still rising; just as the historical paleo records also show, QED.”
Only a member Antrhowback in good standing, such as Gates himself, could possibly be “qualified” as a result of his incessant repeating of the Holy CO2 = CAGW “tenets”, to then add:
R. Gates says:
June 28, 2011 at 11:37 am
We can’t say for certain that any individual event was or wasn’t caused by any other specifc event…., that is, unless “we” have a mental Time Machine to make it happen as it should happen, according to “the physics”.