That’s from the avalanche center in the Tetons, and here is a current web-cam view up Yosemite Valley towards still-closed Tioga Pass (in the left background):
AP has a nice roundup of late snow and snowpack news (including the Teton quote). Just weather. No mention of climate. Nothing this time about snow and cold being caused by global warming. Now if we could just get the press to do the same when there is a regional hot spell. Still, it’s progress. Remember the spinning on last winter’s snowzilla?
Most amusing was Al Gore’s quote from “the scientific community“:
A rise in global temperature can create all sorts of havoc, ranging from hotter dry spells to colder winters, along with increasingly violent storms, flooding, forest fires and loss of endangered species.
A click on Gore’s link showed “the scientific community” to be Chicago Tribune columnist Clarence Page. Gore should also have quoted Page’s credentials, which Page listed in his next line:
That’s simple science even for me, a guy whose scientific education pretty much ended with the old “Watch Mr. Wizard” TV show and a subscription to Popular Mechanics.
Unfortunately, Gore could have quoted some actual scientists to the same effect, as Andrew Bolt quoted the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research:
The overall warming of the earth’s northern half could result in cold winters… Recent severe winters like last year’s or the one of 2005-06 do not conflict with the global warming picture, but rather supplement it.
But as Bolt also quoted, the Potsdammer’s IPCC bible had predicted the opposite:
Fewer cold outbreaks; fewer, shorter, intense cold spells / cold extremes in winter” as being consistent across all model projections for Europe
What, are there no takers this time around? Are they tiring of the ridicule?
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Tioga Pass Road Opening and Closing Dates.
http://www.monobasinresearch.org/data/tiogapass.htm
R. Gates says:
“…Ice core date unequivocally show greater accumulation of snowfall during warmer, not cooler climates. Why this fact bothers some people I just don’t fully understand.”
You’re right. I don’t understand either. Why is the State of California so worried about a warmer climate if it means more water? California has been plagued by drought, and the San Joaquin feeds from Sierra water. In cooler periods, it’s drier, and that’s when we tend to have decadal or even century long droughts, resulting in severe water restrictions for irrigation. Comes now some much needed water, and California should be rejoicing!
http://www4.nau.edu/direnet/publications/publications_m/files/Mensing_S_Smith_J_Norman_KB_Allan_M_Extended_drought_Great_Basin.pdf
….But wait…..I hear warmer = wetter, yet we have this: “….Model-based explanations for the shift in d18O values suggest a transition to a colder and wetter climate at this time….” This is referring to the Sierra and Great Basin climates, and over long time scales!!
http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1374&context=usgsstaffpub&sei-redir=1#search=%22sierra+droughts%22
So I’m confused. Now I’ve got 2 diverse arguments, one for a warmer, wetter climate, and one for a colder, wetter climate. Both over long time scales, and both arguing for some rather severe conditions.
What is clear, all the hand-wringing aside, is that in either case, the effects of natural variability are so remarkably powerful that a human-induced change in temperature of a portion of a fraction of a degree is barely in the noise of whatever climate…or weather…we’re experiencing.
Icarus says:
May 29, 2011 at 8:34 am
tallbloke: What’s remarkable is that the world has still been warming even during the deepest and longest solar minimum for 100 years –
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/pmod/from:1980/mean:12/offset:-1365.6/plot/uah/from:1980/plot/uah/from:2001/trend
That has rather distubing implications for the warming we can expect to see over the next few years as solar irradiance rises again, and the consequences of that warming, don’t you think?
The world hasn’t been warming, the surface has been warming (barely). Ocean heat content has been falling slightly. The top two metres of ocean contains as much heat as the entire atmosphere above it. The oceans start releasing more heat into the atmosphere as the atmosphere cools more quickly due to less incoming solar. SO ocean heat content supports the surface temperature for quite a while after the sun goes quiet. I anticipate we’ll start to see the effects of the solar slowdown more strongly in the next few years. If y9ou think last winter was cold, you ain’t seen nothing yet.
As for solar activity increasing much in the near future, fingers crossed, but I think we’re out of luck there.
Gates,
I don’t have a ‘brand’ of science. CAGW believers cherry-pick their random facts to support their beliefs, and you are a prime example. The ice cores you’re referring to show that the current mild warming cycle is well below previous natural warming cycles. And it is warming because the planet is still emerging, in fits and starts, from the LIA.
So then you try to limit your cherry-picking to “the instrumental record.” FYI, here is the oldest continuous instrumental record in existence. The trend from the LIA is clear, and so is the fact that nothing unusual is occurring. What we are observing is natural variability.
Of course, that won’t convince those afflicted with cognitive dissonance. They are beyond logic, and into true belief; reality has been suspended and facts don’t matter.
R. Gates says:
May 29, 2011 at 8:34 am
general note: you would do yourself a huge favor by studying the weather for the whole of England. The northern half of the country has had a plentiful supply of rain. In Cheshire we have recorded over a centimetre in the last 4 days alone. My vegetable and fruit crops are verdant and abundant, and my lovely green lawn has to be cut regularly. The only thing preventing the weather being perfect from an amateur gardener’s point of view has been the lack of warmth for pretty much the whole of May – but then I recall this is pretty normal for May in the UK. The cause of the unseasonal warmth in April was apparently a blocking high over the west of mainland Europe.
I would also point out that the cold of the last two winters has destroyed a fig tree (which has cropped reliably for nearly 20 years) and numerous decorative shrubs of varying vintages. The more tender plants which I grew because we were promised a “Mediterranean” climate stood no chance!
R. Gates says:
May 29, 2011 at 8:06 am
the long term well established ice core record the show a warmer, not cooler climate leads to greater snowfall accumulations.
It ain’t necessarily so. It can be cooler at the surface and yet with much increase in precipitation.
How?
Well, when the solar system passes through dense interstellar clouds, the sun get brighter due to getting free fuel, and the Earth gets cloudier at lower altitudes due to more nucleation. So, cold surface, warm mid troposphere, much snow on the ground.
RE: Jeff Alberts @ur momisugly 7:40 and the opening of the North Cascades Highway
http://www.wsdot.wa.gov/winter/passdates.htm
“Openings and Closings” for Chinook, Cayuse, and North Cascades are given in the link above. Note ‘yellow’ highlights.
Chinook Pass opening for 2011 is still in question as of May 27 . . .
“Maintenance crews are close to clearing the summit area and expect to make good progess next week.”
http://www.wsdot.wa.gov/traffic/passes/chinook/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinook_Pass
Coordinates: 46.871868, -121.515722
Near the top of the Pass the Pacific Crest Trail crosses over the road.
Ian W.,
Here in Denver, (not Greenland), our snowiest months are not our coldest. The ice core record is a good proxy for the advancement of glacial periods over the whole hemisphere. Colder climate periods on earth are more dry than warmer periods. When the next glacial period comes, it will not be marked by record snow but cold summers where whatever snow fell does not melt. During the so-called Little Ice Age the ice core data show less accumulation but colder temps. These are basic facts.
Memorial Day weekend (the “official” kick-off to the summer season, lol!) and it’s cold and raining. Here in SLC, UT, it’s barely stopped raining or snowing for 8 months. It’s been a ridiculously wet year, yet the weather channel predicted warmer than average temperatures and dryer than average precipitation. It’s snowing in our mountains and the ski resorts have reported that they will be open until at least July 4th. I have lived here my entire life and have seen warm winters and cold summers, however, I cannot remember a time when a true possibility existed where the mountain snow didn’t melt before the next seasons snow fall began. In recent memory, this seems to be the trend. Im almost wishing for global warming at this point. Im tired of the cold! =)
Ian has made a great point. What the Arctic snow fall does depends on the oceanic and atmospheric systems impinging upon the unique topographical features of the Arctic. Natural short and long term weather pattern variation exists in the Arctic and adequately explains the mechanism behind snow behavior there.
Where you go wrong Gates is to extrapolate Arctic ice core snow depth pattern to lower latitudes. Your extrapolation ignores the existence of a very large pond and its warm/cool oscillations to the West of our coastline, continental topographical land features, on-shore flow of weather pressure systems from the Pacific, and jet stream behavior.
R. Gates, your logic regarding teleconnections between Arctic ice cores and our current snow depth defies a logical explanation for your logic’s existence.
However, you seem insistent that the Arctic ice cores are speaking to you in no uncertain terms. I would like you to post your links to the ice core “certainties” you have stated here. I have linked to a very good source outlining ice core uncertainties. Now cough up.
What is the current situation re global temperature? Because of the thermal inertia of the oceans and the lack of any UHI effect the best indicator of recent trends is the Hadley – CRU Sea Surface Temperature data. The 5 year moving average shows the warming trend peaked in 2003 and and a simple regression analysis from then to the present shows a global cooling trend since then . The current phase of the PDO and the decline in the Solar magnetic field strength suggest his may possibly continue for 20 – 30 years. The warmest year was 1998 -13 years with CO2 up 6.3% and no net warming completely at odds with the IPCC models.
Everyone should have a look at this chart:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/pubs/alley2000/alley2000.gif
What is shows is snowfall accumulation rates compared to temp from ice cores, which have been shown to be an excellent proxy for hemispheric climates. Besides general warmer temps lining up with greater accumulation, you can spot some individual periods that are very interesting. The much discussed MWP period for example, saw greater accumulations than the Little Ice Age. This seems contradictory if you don’t fully understand the true dynamics of snow accumulation and glacial periods. Getting beyond the talking points is good for your mind…
R. Gates says:
May 29, 2011 at 9:27 am
When the next glacial period comes, it will not be marked by record snow but cold summers where whatever snow fell does not melt. During the so-called Little Ice Age the ice core data show less accumulation but colder temps.
=====================
True to form, R continues to spurt forth just enough “knowledge” to get by, such being couched in naive overstatements and generalizations.
Glaciation Epoch = Less snow in Greenland.
Cyclone tracks shoved farther south by strong polar anticyclones.
Duh.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
John F. Hultquist says:
May 29, 2011 at 9:23 am
Wow, must be REALLY warm up there. /sarc
Savesthesharks,
Once more you seem to have a desire to twist what I say to meet some predetermined outcome. Ice core data from Greenland is a good proxy for what happened over the hemisphere during a period of time. During periods of glacial advance less snow falls, but that which does fall doesn’t melt.
For all those who thin that heavy snowfall is a sign of any impending glacial advance, you should recalibrate your thinking, and for those who live downstream from the heavy snowfall area…get some sandbags because June will bring some flooding sorry to say. But look on the bright side…heavy snow and rain is the planet’s long term feedback to cleanse the atmosphere of excess CO2 through rock weathering. All that snow will melt and carry carbon rich sediment that will eventually wind up in the ocean and some of it will become limestone someday, sequestering some CO2.
I saw a small story in the Oregonian this morning
http://tinyurl.com/snoshow
that mentioned,
“The Columbia Basin is bracing for worse conditions as June arrives along with what’s expected to be the runoff from an unusually large snowpack still poised on the Rocky Mountains.”
In searching for more I ran across this. What a hoot. It’s all things related to concocted snow pack loss caused by human climate disruption.
Blah blah blah
http://www.rockymountainclimate.org/website%20pictures/Less%20Snow%20Less%20Water.pdf
“With all that the West has at risk, the region has good reason not only
to do its share to deal with climate disruption, but also to be a leader
in showing the rest of the nation and world what can be done.
Encouragingly, there are growing signs of new western leadership and
action in addressing climate disruption. Much more needs to be done,
but these first steps suggest that Westerners are beginning to choose
a new path to keep the region such a special place.”
“Taken together, these results emphasize that the West’s snow resources are already declining
as Earth’s climate warms. (Philip Mote and others, “Declining
Mountain Snowpack in Western North America”46)”
In the American West, climate disruption is under way
New Findings
For this report, the Rocky Mountain Climate Organization
(RMCO) conducted a new analysis of government temperature
and snowpack records for the upper basins of the
the timing of snowmelt.
Projections of Future Changes
Scientists believe that the changes in climate observed so far are just
a mild foretaste of what is likely to come if global-warming emissions
continue to increase. “
R. Gates says:
May 29, 2011 at 10:11 am
Savesthesharks,
Once more you seem to have a desire to twist what I say to meet some predetermined outcome. Ice core data from Greenland is a good proxy for what happened over the hemisphere during a period of time. During periods of glacial advance less snow falls, but that which does fall doesn’t melt.
====================
No. I don’t need to twist what you say. You twist yourself.
Doesn’t the NOAA chart you present is show the snow accumulations AT THE ICE CORE SITE (not global, or “hemipheric”)??
Again…it is common knowledge that glaciation epochs are windier and dustier (and hence drier) from the ice core samples. We all know that during such epochs, climates tend toward the extreme. Duh.
Understanding that snowfall accumulations over Greenland are probably less during glacials is common sense.
Extrapolating those ice core readings, to fit the rest of the globe with respect to snow accumulations, is complete NONsense.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
Pamela Gray says:
May 29, 2011 at 8:30 am
“R. Gates, I love that you are certain about what ice cores are saying. It makes my job so much easier.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/reports/trieste2008/ice-cores.pdf ”
Pamela,
Thanks for the ‘backgrounder’ on uncertainties of ice core analyses!
R. Gates says:
May 29, 2011 at 9:48 am
Everyone should have a look at this chart:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/pubs/alley2000/alley2000.gif
The much discussed MWP period for example, saw greater accumulations than the Little Ice Age. … …Getting beyond the talking points is good for your mind…
============================
Well, of COURSE Greenland apparently saw more snow in the MWP than it did in the LIA.
There really is no reason to elaborate on this.
If you can’t get that one…then getting past YOUR talking points, R…may be next to impossible.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
R. Gates says:
May 29, 2011 at 9:48 am
Everyone should have a look at this chart:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/pubs/alley2000/alley2000.gif
What it also shows is a very suspect temperature calibration.
Here in Denver, (not Greenland), our snowiest months are not our coldest.
Sorry R. Gates, but you say some of the dumbest things. Denver’s snowiest months don’t coincide with the coldest months, not because a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, but because of where the jet stream is located. Buffalo’s snowiest month is also its coldest. Gee, how does that happen?
Ian W says:
May 29, 2011 at 8:49 am
“R. Gates….. Your logic of using polar ice cores to indicate whether it is snowing more in temperate regions when they are warmer is flawed.”
A very good point! Thanks, Ian!
Perhaps Mr. Gates will respond with data/analysis showing a correlation between polar ice core data and temperate regions snowfalls, to support his conjecture?
R. Gates says:
May 29, 2011 at 9:48 am
Everyone should have a look at this chart:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/pubs/alley2000/alley2000.gif
What is shows is snowfall accumulation rates compared to temp from ice cores,
===============================================
It shows from 10,000 years ago to present, temperatures have gone sightly down.
From 10,000 years ago to present, snow accumulation has been going slightly up.
….it shows that as temperatures go down, snow accumulation goes up
But that’s accumulation not snowfall.
Lake Powell is getting ready for a huge snow melt. And very happy about it also. For those that get absorbed in detail, it is worth noting that the outflow from Hoover Dam has been increasing throughout May.
http://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/cs/gcd.html
California reservoirs are all filled and in a flood control pattern of operation. Been quite a while for both of these events.
R. Gates says:
May 29, 2011 at 8:34 am
“For example, England had record snows this past winter but now is warm and in a drought. ”
Not where I am, it isn’t.
For the record, April and the first week in May were unusually warm and dry, but since then the weather has regressed to cool, damp and windy. Summer has arrived!