While Joe Romm, Bill McKibben, and others follow the fear card script to do everything and anything they can to link severe weather to global warming, they are clearly fighting a losing battle for public opinion on the issue. Now, even Andy Revkin at the New York Times doesn’t believe it anymore when it comes to tornadoes.*
He writes:
You can’t exclude climate change, but there’s simply no evidence through a half century of tornado history in the United States of a connection to warming.
Of course one of the strongest pieces of evidence has to do with the trend in the frequency of strong tornadoes, as shown in this somewhat dated graph from NCDC:
I’m looking forward to NCDC updating this data and graph. Obviously, there will be a new spike in 2011 rivaling 1974. But clearly, even with improved detection technology, the trend is down.
But this graph only goes back to 1950, and of course if we presented climate data only back that far, critics like the nefarious “Tamino” aka Grant Foster would have a cherry flavored cow, which is the typical M.O. for him. NCDC of course gets a pass.
Fortunately, I have some new tornado data to present that goes back further.
These two graphs below, courtesy of Dr. Indur Goklany, go back to 1900 and show the trend in death rates yearly, and by decade, since 1900:
Clearly death rates per million are down, which is testament to the improved warning technology, plus the skills and dedication of the National Weather Service and volunteer storm spotters at getting “eyes on” tornadoes to provide advance warning.
*UPDATE: Andrew Revkin writes in via email with this comment, which I am happy to reprint at his request – Anthony
You’ve cast my concerns about overstated discussions of tornadoes in the context of climate change as if this is new.
You must have missed my 2008 piece, including this section:
http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/02/07/climate-roundup-tornadoes-coral-drought/
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Nullius in verba applies to you too William Chamedies and the Nicolas School of the Environment at Duke University, unless you believe you are exempt from the scientific method.
http://pathstoknowledge.net/2011/05/26/the-president-of-the-royal-society-wants-scientists-to-abandon-the-scientific-method.
I don’t know if you can compare death rates and tornado strength. It’s hard to imagine modern warning systems do not save lives and reduce the number of deaths in otherwise comparable storms.
If you believe you’re exempt from the scientific method you’re stating that you are not a scientist.
Tragedies strike …
Scientists seek to understand.
And then there are those other critters that seek to cash in on tragedies for their own causes.
Tamino has a nicely cherry-picked data set on his site. By just selecting the tornado records for each April over the last 60 years, he has managed to produce a hockey-stick! You could not make it up.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/killers.html
Plus, the number of deaths in a tornado season doesn’t automatically equate to the quantity of strong tornadoes in that season. You can see from the top 25 deadliest tornado list that 1953 has three of the top 25. The value for tornado strength in the first chart doesn’t show 1953 as an extraordinary year in the number of strong storms, but there is a good spike in the death rate.
Darn now all those plans to claim that warming had so reduced cyclonic storms that tornadoes were a thing of the past are shot to heck.
Revkins graphs “Tornado Reports” appears misleading. The number of reports of Tornados is likely to go up as the number of people go up, which increases the chance that a Tornado that does no damage will be spotted.
This is supported by his graph itself which shows a decrease in F2-F5 tornados. So the increased number of reports must be due to more people reporting small tornados (F0-F1) which previously went unreported as they did no significant damage.
S0, what is being graphed is not an increase in damaging Tornados, which the graph shows are decreasing, but an increase in people reporting minor tornados.
@P. Solar says:
May 27, 2011 at 2:48 am
Anthony, using death rate a climate indicator is pretty open to criticism. One obvious comment is that better predicition, warning systems and care of victims would be an important part of that downward trend.
—–
REPLY Exactly! Also, keep in mind the increased migration of the U.S. population towards urban centers and out of rural areas in the past 100 years or so. As we’ve built more sprawling suburbs & ex-urbs, we’ve given Mr./Mrs. Tornado quite a bit more of a population concentration to harass. I’d think that would have a direct impact on tornado-induced morbidity/mortality in recent years (1950’s onward).
Not to mention the invention of the mobile home, slab-built/stick-built tract housing etc. More/deadlier tornadoes? I doubt it, just a higher population at risk.
Re: what ferd berple says:
May 27, 2011 at 9:59 am
You need to click to the Dot Earth piece which has the following caption below the graph:
“Frequency of reports of strong (red) and weak (blue) tornadoes since 1950. Experts say the rise in weak tornadoes is from more reporting, not more storms. (NOAA/NSSL)”
It simply got left out when the graph got displayed here on WUWT.
Say what you will about Revkin, the admittedly few columns I’ve read of his seem fairly balanced, considering his audience.
Robert Doyle says: (May 27, 2011 at 7:50 am)
“I must be dumb as a rock.
If warming was the trigger for tornadoes, then July & August would be the months
with the greatest number of these storms.
However, the storms peak late April to early June in most states.
Florida is a weather laboratory unto itself”
Can’t disagree with your first line.
These storms are caused by contrasting air masses not warm weather. General warming would make for less contrast between air masses and thus less severe storms. So don’t be so eager to disparage rocks.
A secular global warming trend would tend to dampen the energy of the Spring jet stream, as the Semi Tropical Highs moved north earlier and earlier in the season. In the case of the current season, the opposite has been true. The Semi Tropical Highs are still “south for the winter” and are only just now starting to creep northward. That is indicative, if anything, of a secular global cooling trend.
Michael Jankowski says:
I had someone try to tell me the other day that it was a “proven fact” that tornadoes were “getting larger and stronger every year.” Incredible.
And don’t bother sharing any REAL facts, right?
People’s power of self-delusion always amazes me.
Interstellar Bill says:
May 27, 2011 at 12:59 am
“The warmist fear-mongers shouldn’t be so eager to trumpet what are actually the results of global colding.”
This is my suspicion, too.
Normal, warm moist air from the Gulf of Mexico colliding with below normal cold air from the North.
See story of huge snow pack in the western states this Memorial Day weekend:
Heavy snows spoil weekend holiday plans in West, May 27, 2011
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_MEMORIAL_DAY_SNOW?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2011-05-27-04-51-12
Now, I’ll acknowledge that “warmer” than normal air could be coming from the Gulf of Mexico, but I haven’t seen any reports as such.
Or it could simply be a historical anomaly.
I predict that tornadoes cause earthquakes. And if the world ever has another earthquake, I’ll consider that positive proof of my theory.
Yes, I will become a climatologist yet. 😉
We have had all sorts of large weather events recently that look like events in 1974/75.
The big floods in Queensland (Australia) were comparable with 1974 , these tornados in the US, the last time the flood control gates were opened on the lower Mississippi R was in 1974 etc etc. What else happened in 1974 ? Wasn’t there a strong La Nina event ? I’m sure others can add to the list.
But I’m just an amateur who stands to be corrected if wrong.
I was just checking out the web cams for Squaw Valley. White out conditions at present. Those going to enjoy the last weekend will be in for a powder day tomorrow.
They could go for at least another month if they wanted to, the lift towers are at minimum safe ground clearances in a number of high accumulation places. I think it’s an insurance thing, they buy insurance futures early in the season, if they want to top up later it’s very expensive. With a minimal ad budget they can’t afford to advertise this late in the season, most flatlanders have no clue it’s still snowing in the high country.
“The Cascades blocked any of those warm, moist, refreshing Pacific breezes, harvesting their moisture to carpet ski areas for dewy-skinned Seattleites, and diverting what remained north to Vancouver or south to Portland. Consequently the Palouse had to get its air shipped down in bulk from the Yukon and British Columbia. It flowed across the blasted volcanic scab land of central Washington in […] a more or less continuous laminar sheet that, when it hit the rolling Palouse country, ramified into a vast system of floods, rivers and rivulets diverging around the bald swelling hills and recombining in the sere declivities. But it never recombined exactly the way it was before. The hills had thrown entropy into the system. Like a handful of nickels in a batch of bread dough this could be kneaded from place to place but never removed. The entropy manifested itself as swirls and violent gusts and ephemeral vortices. ”
Neal Stephenson quotes are always worth posting. A beautiful description of why tornadoes.
The NWS is heading to Durham, Calif, to assess the strength of the tornadoes that touched down in the area. Preliminary looks to be EF-2, one might even fetch and EF-3. Historians are searching records to see if something like it happened in the past.
What is unprecedented from what I see around the North State is the cold air that keeps right on pouring in. It’s coming from the N. Pacific, and it says volumes about what is going on out there. Every day this week I have looked out and seen snow stuck to trees up on the Trinity Alps. Mighty cold for end of May.
I heard one comment on the news saying that these tornados were a consequence of the North Pacific Ocean water being abnormally cold this year, increasing the temperature contrast between air coming from the Pacific and air coming from the Gulf. Perhaps this is a delayed consequence of the unusual grand solar minimum of 2008-2010.
On KHB60, I heard a report this week from Stampede Pass (3672 ft) in Washington State that it was 32 degrees and snowing.
Kerry Eubanks says:
May 27, 2011 at 7:30 am
>>
As many others have pointed out, fitting a linear trend to this kind of data doesn’t make sense. An exponential curve is more appropriate. Excel gave this result:
y = 377.59 * exp(-0.2642x) (R-squared = 0.8944)
>>
Why is that any more “appropriate” ?
That shows that as we go back in time the number of deaths will tend to infinity. Far less credible than a straight line.
You’re just pulling an arbitrary equation out of the sack. It has no more validity than a straight line. (Which I agree is not a very suitable model.)
No tornadoes here in western MD, but a series of rainstorms & T-storms. Massive stream flooding yesterday from 1.72″ rain in about 30 minutes. 60 mph winds & hail.
The last 11 days I’ve measured 8.2″ rain here. Rain-shadowing from the Appalachians doesn’t occur here when precip moves from the SE, S & SW instead of the west.
Global Cooling Kills. One of the methods it uses is tornadoes. Be afraid! Be very afraid!
It is important to remember that the absence of evidence is not the evidence of absence. Global warming might increase the number of tornados in the future, but we can’t know for another 50 years. The question we should ask ourselves now is whether it is plausible that global warming could increase the number or severity of tornados.
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2011/05/the-tornado-pacific-decadal-oscillation-connection/
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2011/05/todays-tornado-outlook-high-risk-of-global-warming-hype/