Iceland volcano eruption not likely to disrupt air travel

Smoke rises from the Grimsvotn volcano, Saturday, May 21, 2011 in Reykjavik, Iceland. Iceland's most active volcano has started erupting, scientists said Saturday - just over a year after another eruption on the North Atlantic island shut down European air traffic for days. (Xinhua/AFP Photo)
STOCKHOLM, May 21 (Xinhua) — An eruption has started in Iceland’s most active volcano Grimsvotn, according to reports reaching here from Reykjavik on Saturday.

The smoke from the eruption can be seen from many places in south Iceland, Iceland’s television channel RUV said in a report.

Iceland’s Meteorological Office also confirmed that an eruption had begun in Grimsvotn.

“All indications are that an eruption will start in this area,” Icelandic geologist Hjorleifur Sveinbjornsson was quoted as saying earlier on Saturday by the local media.

But scientists in Iceland believed that the new eruption in Grimsvotn could be small and would not lead to a repeat of the air travel chaos in Europe one year ago, which was caused by ashes from the Eyjafjallajokul volcano’s eruption.

Located in the middle of the Vatnajokull glacier, Grimsvotn is the most active volcano in Iceland, with major eruptions recorded in 1922, 1933, 1934, 1938, 1945, 1954, 1983, 1998 and 2004. Most of the eruptions lasted one to three weeks.

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From Iceland’s Meteorological Office

http://en.vedur.is/media/frettir/jardskjalftar_eldgos//full/Grimsvotn.png
Eruption cloud from Grímsvötn volcano at 22:00 UTC May 21st 2011.

Eruption has started in Grímsvötn

An eruption began at Grímsvötn volcano at approximately 17:30 UTC, May 21st 2011.

Eruptions in Grímsvötn start as subglacial eruptions, which quickly break the ice cover. At 21:00 UTC, the eruption plume had risen to an altitude of over 65,000 ft (~20 km). Initially, the plume is expected to drift to the east and subsequently to the north. Thus, the ash is not expected to impact aviation in Europe, at least not during the first 24 hours.

The figure on the right (above) shows an image of the eruption cloud at 22:00 UTC. The image is from the Icelandic Met Office weather radar located at Keflavik International Airport, at 220 km distance from the volcano. The cloud extends above a large part of Vatnajökull ice cap. The line marks the approximate location of Grímsvötn volcano.

The last eruption in Grímsvötn occurred in November 2004. Grímsvötn is Iceland’s most frequently erupting volcano.

The figure below shows tremor activity in Grímsvötn associated with the eruption. Note that seismic activity increases after 17:30 UTC.

tremor

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grzejnik
May 22, 2011 5:20 am

Does mean that the end may still be near?

May 22, 2011 6:08 am

The beginning of the Grimsvotn eruption seen from one of the GOES satellites:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/110521_g13_vis_volcano_anim.gif
The eruption was described in the local news at noon that it looked like “10 times more powerful than Eyjafjallajökull” last year.
Frequently updated news in English:
http://www.icelandreview.com/

JPA Knowles
May 22, 2011 6:11 am

Could that annular cloud relate to a slightly warmer moister layer of air?
At what height does the stratosphere commence in May? Maybe this eruption will put some fine particulates and sulphuric acid into the polar cell. If so, the UK Met Office might want to revise their “hot summer” forecaste before they shoot themselves in the foot (again).

May 22, 2011 6:21 am

I Love These Photos.. 😀

Bill Illis
May 22, 2011 6:26 am

The two largest Pinatubo eruptions and the largest El Chichon eruption only got to 24 kms high so this eruptive column is close to equivalent in height.
It is only the stratospheric eruptions where the sulphate aerosols reach into the Ozone layer that seem to affect the climate. Hopefully, there is only one blast (with the small amount of eruptive material that seems to have occured so far) reaching 20 kms and higher or we are looking at up to 0.5C of cooling in the 18 months ahead.

netdr
May 22, 2011 7:39 am

I will bet some yo yo comes up with a peer reviewed study which blames this volcano on Global waring which essentially stopped in 1998.
Don’t laugh there was just such a story after the last one. There was one after the earthquake in Japan blaming that on Global Warming too.
Do they think the public is so gullible they will believe anything ?
I read USA Today which is a member of the “climate crusade” I think they are the Knights Templar of Global Warming. Al Gore is the Pope and Dr Hansen is one of the cardinals.

Tom T
May 22, 2011 7:47 am

Adam says this is the Rapture. I ‘m sure he know more about this than I do, but I’ll wait to hear what Eve has to say.

R. de Haan
May 22, 2011 7:55 am

The track record of this volcano is that eruptions during the past century have lasted between a few day’s up to three weeks but if we go further back into time we have this information from Wikipedia:
“Grímsvötn has a southwest-northeast-trending fissure system, and the massive climate-impacting Laki fissure eruption of 1783-1784 was a part of the same fissure system. Grímsvötn was erupting at the same time as Laki during 1783, but continued to erupt until 1785. Because most of the volcano lies underneath Vatnajökull, most of its eruptions have been subglacial”.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gr%C3%ADmsvötn
If this information is correct this eruption could last several years.

Jos
May 22, 2011 7:58 am

Nice satellite image from MODIS (AQUA, 13:15 UTC) …
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/single.php?2011142/crefl2_143.A2011142131500-2011142132000.250m.jpg
[reply] Bandwidth alert: Big image!

Andy
May 22, 2011 8:40 am

Could someone explain the possible effect on the arctic ice melt this year. I have not built up sufficient knowledge yet to know what the consequences could be.

Anthony Scalzi
May 22, 2011 8:55 am

Plot of plume height versus the tropopause. It’s a bit old but gets the idea across-this is definitely a stratospheric eruption.
http://i53.tinypic.com/1960dj.png

May 22, 2011 9:18 am

OT, just published:
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=climate%20pollution
climate pollution
The number of references to global warming, climate change, or greenhouse gases made on the internet or in other media.
During the 2009 Copenhagen Climate Change Conference, the increase in climate pollution was at an all time high.
climate noise noise pollution disinformation signal-to-noise ratio propaganda
by mollyflogged Apr 29, 2011

Zakos
May 22, 2011 9:22 am

Sky news now claims the eruption may disrupt air traffic

stevo
May 22, 2011 9:24 am

“…smoke from the eruption…”
No. There is no “smoke” there. Your scientific accuracy is, as ever, wayward.

R. de Haan
May 22, 2011 9:28 am
Rhoda Ramirez
May 22, 2011 9:30 am

If a volcano is eruptin under an ice sheet, where does the melted ice go? Are we going to see some increase in sea level for the warmists to panic over?

Richard111
May 22, 2011 10:20 am

If the eruption is still going come Monday night Scotland will get a big dose, see:
http://www.mountaindays.net/synoptic/chart.php

geo
May 22, 2011 10:32 am

Gosh, I hope they don’t lose their bridge again. I’m not sure they could afford to replace it again right now!

SSam
May 22, 2011 11:11 am

netdr says:
May 22, 2011 at 7:39 am
“I will bet some yo yo comes up with a peer reviewed study which blames this volcano on Global waring which essentially stopped in 1998.”
Nah… global waring is still going on. Cambodian and Thai troops exchanged gun fire just this year, and there is the whole middle eastern thing.

u.k.(us)
May 22, 2011 11:25 am

Not sure if this is legal, but excerpt from:
http://bigthink.com/blogs/eruptions/
“*And all you news media folks out there: IT IS NOT SMOKE. I don’t know how many articles I’ve read where images of Grímsvötn are labeled as “spewing smoke”. There is no smoke in the plume. None. Zero. Zilch. The plume is made of three things: (1) steam – a lot of it; (2) ash – fine, fragmental pieces of silicate glass, not stuff from your backyard BBQ (which is burned carbon); (3) volcanic gases like CO2, SO2, H2S and others. It is NOT SMOKE.”

North of 43 and south of 44
May 22, 2011 11:32 am

stevo says:
May 22, 2011 at 9:24 am
“…smoke from the eruption…”
No. There is no “smoke” there. Your scientific accuracy is, as ever, wayward.
——————————————————————————-
Stevo, when one is basically quoting a news agency it is common practice to use their words.
The fact that a news agency screws things up shouldn’t surprise anyone especially one who depends upon such fact distortions to get their message out.

philincalifornia
May 22, 2011 11:46 am

u.k.(us) says:
May 22, 2011 at 11:25 am
————————-
Thanks for the link. I extracted this from it too.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation/vaac/data/VAG_1306068174.png
There seems to be a discrepancy between the image on the original link and the above link, with ash heading south on the former, but looking like it’s heading northeast on the latter (if I’m reading this correctly).
I’m keeping a close eye on this, as I’m flying into Europe this week. Any experts here have a data-based opinion on the aviation situation ??

Dennis Wingo
May 22, 2011 1:16 pm

We were flying today from Vancouver BC to London and the plane veered several hundred miles to the south from our original vector.