Update: Senator Harry Reid laments the loss of the “Cowboy Poetry Festival” due to federal budget cuts. Seems that there is indeed some fat to be cut from the proposed $3.7 trillion budget.
The National Weather Service Employees Organization needs your help to protect against the draconian budget cuts suggested by the House for the rest of FY11. From the Member News website:
(March 7, 2011) The Senate Appropriations Committee has released a proposed alternative to HR 1 that would make a $110 million reduction to NOAA operations for the remainder of the fiscal year, rather than the $454 reduction approved by the House. Of the $110 million cut, $104 million was from earmarks that are no longer funded. This effectively only cuts the NOAA ORF budget by $6 million.
The Senate Appropriations Committee justified the higher funding levels for NOAA stating in their March 4 press release, “The House cuts an additional $340 million which would threaten critical weather forecasts and warnings.”
The sample form letter to Boehner and Cantor follows:
Dear Mr. Speaker (for Speaker John Boehner) OR
Dear Mr. Cantor (for Rep. Eric Cantor)
I am writing to ask you to support the Senate’s proposal for NOAA’s budget. This proposal will help NOAA and the National Weather Service continue the mission of saving lives and property.
The Senate’s proposal includes responsible funding levels in stark contrast to the draconian cuts included in HR1. HR1 would have resulted in the following impacts on the National Weather Service:
- Reduced staffing at Weather Forecast Offices and River Forecast Centers would result in incomplete forecast production which could prove disastrous in a significant weather event. Even in the best of cases, it will still mean incomplete forecast production at WFOs that have major product workloads for aviation, marine, tropical and public services.
- This is going to have a negative impact on the economy and on almost every aspect of our daily lives. There will be a large scale economic impact on aviation, agriculture, and the cost shipping food and other products.
- Service backup of 24 Weather Forecasting Offices has never been tested and runs a very significant risk of a missed tornado, flood or severe weather warning. It is risking lives at the onset of both tornadoes and hurricane season. This is also doubling the area of responsibility for operations and adds the risk of degraded service delivery.
- The National Hurricane Center is not immune to these cuts as furloughs and staffing cuts will add strain to the program. The Hurricane Hunter Jet, which provides lifesaving data and helps determine a hurricane’s path, could also be eliminated.
- Information that is vital for weather modeling and accurate tornado watches and warnings will be reduced and in some cases lost. Reduced upper air observations currently made twice a day could be reduced to once every other day. Buoy and surface weather observations, the backbone of most of the weather and warning systems, may be temporarily or permanently discontinued.
Recent advances in aviation weather forecasting have resulted in as much as a 50 percent reduction in weather related flight delays. The Senate’s proposal for funding will help progressive programs such as these continue and may, in turn, prove beneficial to strengthening the economy.
For the safety of our citizens, the protection of property, and the large scale economic impact on aviation, agriculture, and commerce, I am asking you to vote in support the Senate’s proposal for NOAA’s budget.
Sincerely,
——-
Bill Hopkins, the NWS Employees Organization vice president predicts lives will be affected and lost because of the budget cuts. From KSAT12 ABC in San Antonio:
Bill Hopkins, vice president of the NWS Employees Organization, said the public may be in real danger a House bill is passed that would slash The National Weather Service’s budget by $126 million.”It could potentially lead to a loss of lives, not necessarily in San Antonio, but it could in other parts of the county,” Hopkins said.Local NWS offices would likely deal with rolling closures and furloughs, leaving the Corpus Christi NWS office to take over issuing warnings for the San Antonio area.”Not only will they be watching your area, but they will also be watching their area, and there will be no increase in personnel to do this,” Hopkins said.The national NWS office said President Obama has opposed to such harsh cuts. Hopkins said the cuts would significantly affect those along the Gulf Coast.”The National Hurricane Center would be reduced to 32 hours a week,” Hopkins said.There would also be far fewer hurricane hunter flights, which are often vital parts of hurricane forecasts.According to Hopkins, large amounts of weather data would be lost.”Can you imagine flying into an airport and they lose all their surface data? There’s really drastic impacts in this cut,” Hopkins said.
Curiousgeorge says:
March 8, 2011 at 8:18 pm
@ur momisugly Amino Acids in Meteorites says:
March 8, 2011 at 7:54 pm
Over the next few years in America cowboys will have plenty of opportunity for writing dark poetry about America. America is heading to a crash. Invest in China, India, New Zealand, and Brazil. Be careful with investing in America It’s going to be ugly and sad in America.
So you are expecting TEOTWAWKI? You do understand that if the USA goes down so does the rest of the world, right?
==============================================
Well, we certainly are headed in that direction. And, for the short term……or when ever the American people decide enough is enough, there will be much pain and turmoil. In the end, I don’t believe we’ll get to TEOTWAWKI. But it will change significantly. Americans, on both sides of the aisle are tired of being the world’s policeman. Myself included. It doesn’t benefit this nation. There are ramifications to this action (or inaction). We fund much. Much of it will dry up. Be it contributions to the IPCC or grants and loans to S. Korea and the like. But, I don’t see the public will to continue. We can argue the merits, but I don’t think they will be heard.
If we are to pull our military out of places like Korea, we can expect much turmoil, deaths, and more societal upheaval. If we do it properly, the only effect it would have on the U.S. is the price of tennis shoes would increase, but perhaps we would decide to manufacture them here, also. So, likely a net gain for the people of the U.S. Calloused? Perhaps. Founded in reality? Yep. This appears to be the will of the people. They should know this is what is likely to occur. Oh, the Koreans and the like? In the end, and it may be centuries later, they will work it out, too. Or not.
But, no one should have expected us to be the world’s policeman to begin with. We can’t even get our own stuff right. We’ve expanded beyond our means. We need to withdraw, and concentrate on our own difficulties. If we shut our borders, what do we care if the world is full of Sadaam’s or not?
I don’t think that the characterization of America as “the world’s policeman” is correct . . .
I think America is more “the world’s lifeboat”. Just look at virtually every natural and man made disaster and there is America stepping up and sorting out the problem. Never mind the criticism when she does, or the anguished cries for help when she is slow to act, the fact is the USA plays a huge, and often sole, role in mitigating disasters both before and after they happen.
Remember the old Chinese saying “why do you hate me , I never helped you?”. Perhaps that will help give context.
Given that the NOAA budget has grown from $3.9 billion in 2008 to a requested $5.55 billion in 2011 (including an $806 million dollar increase request just between 2010 and 2011), I think they might have a few funds sloshing around to help out the poor NWS.
Keith D says:
March 8, 2011 at 1:09 pm
“Cut it! We don’t need NOAA. They are a complete failure in my eyes. Virtually nothing that they have turned out in the last decade has been worth a tinkers damn. Sounds like easy savings.”
We do need NOAA for the gathering and dissemination of weather data including short and medium-range model data along with severe weather warnings. NOAA has gotten into too much specialized products like point and click forecasts on the web, etc. I also agree with all commentors that NOAA’s “climate change” funding should be cut. That means a real sea-change at the top–get rid of the likes of Lubchenko.
My union deserves criticism for their overheated rhetoric. If I was in the leadership, I would be working with the NWS leadership to find ways to cut spending. I’d probably start with a hiring/promotion freeze and work with what we have. A drop in the bucket, but every little bit helps towards eliminating the 1.5 trillion dollar deficit. If we add 1-2 forecasters to our staff, we can easily handle another office’s forecast/warning workload. We are constantly developing tools to make our job easier, so we can expand services to the general public. Keep in mind, that this may work in my office, but in tornado alley, this may not be possible without degrading services.
A few years back, the NWS was experimenting with workload sharing between offices. If one office was busy with a tornado outbreak, then one of their neighboring offices could take over routine products for that office. The union worked hard to kill this, because it would prove that the NWS could continue to provide the same services with fewer people. The technology from this project would have been very useful in event 24 offices were closed at one time because of furloughs. Regardless, my fellow forecasters would rise to the challenge despite a sudden cut in pay and whatever limitations the union puts on us.
Ultimately, I serve the American public. If their representatives want cuts, then the onus is on me to make that work without degrading the services we currently provide. In fact, trying to solve such problems bring joy in my life.
But let’s keep all of this in perspective. Increased NWS funding over the last few years is not why there is record deficits. I would point at bailouts of financial, etc institutions as one cause…in addition to the ARRA.
Can’t we just computerize the warning system? Seems to me that the patterns are pretty well defined and a computer can watch 24 x 7 and issue instant alerts.
I’m having trouble seeing why it would take any staff… ( the computer repair guy can be on the service contract from the vendor…)
I have to add that my previous comment is my personal opionion only and not as a representative of my agency or of my union. Expressed on my personal time on my home computer.
Who needs NOAA?
Thanks to Algore and his inventing the internet, we have weather.com…
Curiousgeorge says:
March 8, 2011 at 8:18 pm
So you are expecting TEOTWAWKI? You do understand that if the USA goes down so does the rest of the world, right?
No, I don’t understand that. I’m not much for melodrama. The world will not be going down.
America is too big to fail? America has an overinflated view of itself. The world will not end. But life for many people in America will end as they know it. Just because an Americans life is effected by what happens in America doesn’t mean that everyone in the world is affected by it. America not only has a bubble in its economy it has a bubble in its image of itself. Bubbles burst. More powerful nations than America have gone through dark times. The world is still here. The world will go on without America being what it used to be.
China and India will be unfazed. In fact, many places in the world will be happy to see America hurt just like many Americans were happy to see Russia hurt when the Berlin wall fell. America was unfazed by Russia becoming something different from what it had been. And the world will not be effected like some think it will be from bad times in America.
All I can say is inflation, higher unemployment, higher crime because of the difficult times, devaluing of the dollar (which includes devaluing of people’s saving accounts), and budget cuts for vital programs like social security and the military, are coming over the next 5 to 10 years. There is no way around these things.
But if you see a way for America to go in a different direction and avert the these things tell me about it.
James Sexton says:
March 8, 2011 at 9:01 pm
Americans, on both sides of the aisle are tired of being the world’s policeman. Myself included.
I’m tired of it too. I think the world will be just fine. If we think we’re irreplaceable in the world then I have this question: what was the world before America took it upon itself to be the police of the world? I agree too that we better focus on problems here in America pretty soon.
I heard that Obama wants Gaddafi to step down. Maybe the President should busy himself with what to do in America instead of the rest of the world.
There are 195 countries in this world. And of their joint military budget, the US spends 50% ! — And their answer to the problem is to shoot the weather man. Yeah, that seems about right 🙂 Also, this means you will NEVER have a ‘weather forcast’ again in the next 10.000 years with view to the amount of debt.
I wonder whether some private business could emerge from this which caters for certain industries like aviation with to pay-for reports as a result?
Of course , it is not all that bad – it is a political decission to cut, and they might reverse it in a year if they are not happy then, a new government might have a different take in the future, etc.
Anyway, outside the US you can read about US cuts on about anything and everything — only the M-word is not mentioned…
NWSEO member says:
March 8, 2011 at 9:53 pm
“I have to add that my previous comment is my personal opionion only and not as a representative of my agency or of my union. Expressed on my personal time on my home computer.”
I appreciated your comments and your caution. Hope there’s lots like you in that ‘shop.’
It is possible to computerize the warning process, but there are many false alarms so you always need someone to weed out these false alarms
Obviously, people are going to be dying in the streets over this cut.
From NOAA, in 2010
In the Fiscal Year (FY) 2010 President’s Budget, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration requests a total of $4,483,750,000, an increase of $109,880,000 or 2.5% above the Omnibus Appropriations Act, 2009. Program changes are relative to the FY2010 base which is the FY 2009 Omnibus level less terminated projects plus inflationary adjustments.
FY 2008 Enacted $3,907.3
FY 2009 Omnibus $4,373.9
FY 2010 Request $4,483.9
So they got a big hit in 2009, 12 percent over 08…and then some more for 10…and I remember 08 and how terrible the excess deaths were. /sarc
http://www.corporateservices.noaa.gov/nbo/fy10_bluebook/NOAAwide_One_Pager051109.pdf
If this stops all those 100 year alarmist claims by NOAA then no bad thing. There seems to be better weather forecasting organizations in the States than NOAA, and they are more accurate for local areas and do not produce alarmist 100 year uncheckable forecasts.
Funny this is the exact same problem being experienced in the UK where the Conservative / Liberal government are trying to balance the books.
The bureaucrats are using the cuts to score political points, cutting front line services while retaining empowerment directors and here is a rather well written letter apropos a renowned socialist council:
… (Comment, March 7) demonstrates what can happen when an elected local council such as Haringey (Labour-run for 40 years) decides that its most vulnerable residents should take the hit when it comes to cuts.
Local people have not decided that this is what they want – the councillors have. Most local people are outraged when they learn that services for the most vulnerable will be cut – day centres for the elderly and disabled, residential homes for people with severe learning disabilities, a crisis centre for psychiatric patients.
Surely the government of the day cannot stand back and, like Pontius Pilate, wash its hands. These little centres will not be able to organise themselves into charitable trusts and compete with the big fundraisers. Their people are poor or unwell, and won’t have the contacts or the personal resources to organise to keep such places open.
Haringey council has misused huge amounts of its income. It has continued to pay vast amounts to its top tier of bureaucrats. (A freedom of information question recently revealed that salaries of its top 100 earners total more than £7 million). Its councillors may have professed sorrow when they voted in these cuts, but not one offered to take a pay cut.
Neither did they agree to cut Haringey People – the glossy magazine posted out to every household – which politically promotes the opinions and “good works” of the ruling party.
What can local taxpayers in boroughs such as Haringey do in the face of a council hell-bent on maintaining its bureaucrats’ lifestyles, yet absolving itself of its duty to its most vulnerable residents?
————
And regarding this point: “But let’s keep all of this in perspective. Increased NWS funding over the last few years is not why there is record deficits. I would point at bailouts of financial, etc institutions as one cause…in addition to the ARRA.”
This kind of thinking is incorrect. I do not agree with US gov policy re: bailouts, QE2,3, etc. but this “spread the wealth” or “it’s only 0.01 cent per taxpayer who would even notice” thinking annoys me. If you really think that please have all your union members send me 0.01 c too. It all adds up, and it all restricts true wealth generation.
Amino Acids in Meteorites says:
March 8, 2011 at 11:46 pm
Curiousgeorge says:
March 8, 2011 at 8:18 pm
So you are expecting TEOTWAWKI? You do understand that if the USA goes down so does the rest of the world, right?
No, I don’t understand that. I’m not much for melodrama. The world will not be going down.
Then you would not agree that the Great Depression of 1929, and the recent global recession (both of which began in the US) had little to no effect on the global economy? I think there are a great many people who would disagree with you. The economic and political well being of the world is so interconnected that it would not be possible for the rest of the world to be unaffected by a collapse of the worlds largest single economy. And we know how thoroughly economics and politics are entwined.
I suspect more people will die from the current and predicted cold that if the entire budgets for NOAA and NASA were cut.
Correction to my last: It’s early in morning. 🙂
Then you would not agree that the Great Depression of 1929, and the recent global recession (both of which began in the US) had substantial effect on the global economy?
Curiousgeorge says:
March 8, 2011 at 8:18 pm
That is old school. The modern world is different Europe, India and China can easily take up the slack until Russia joins in again. It’ll hurt not being able to sell lots of useless products to billions of people people with far more money than sense, but new riches will be made, and wealth will outstrip sense once again, never fear!
The ‘good ol’ US of A can become a marginal economy once more without a total global collapse. Sorry ’bout that!
Jer0me says:
March 9, 2011 at 4:17 am
Curiousgeorge says:
March 8, 2011 at 8:18 pm
So you are expecting TEOTWAWKI? You do understand that if the USA goes down so does the rest of the world, right?
That is old school. The modern world is different Europe, India and China can easily take up the slack until Russia joins in again. It’ll hurt not being able to sell lots of useless products to billions of people people with far more money than sense, but new riches will be made, and wealth will outstrip sense once again, never fear!
The ‘good ol’ US of A can become a marginal economy once more without a total global collapse. Sorry ’bout that!
So you believe that wheat, corn, and many other products of the US economy are “useless” ? Interesting.
Step one Get Piers Corbyn’s predictions. These cost a few hundred dollars.
Step two send someone to study his methods. Appoint another to get together the data needed to use his methodes in the USA. Have a third go over all his predictions with a probability analysys to measure its true error rate. With his permition of course.
Step Three Dust off the 30+ reports on architecture and climate risk factors and get the zoning up to date so people are not building vulnerable buildings in flood zones. Hurricane zones, tornado zones (the indians built only undergrond lodges in those areas.) So On for fire, blizzards, etc. OK that could cost a million or so. Publish, for a reasonable price, all of those dusty reports and a new book of recomendations. That shuold pay for some of the rebuilding. Expidite the legalisation of floating houses in flood zones.
Step four: Send all staff members out to check three weather stations every six months. Pay for the petrol and picnic lunch. Don’t send them all to the one station. (yes we need to spell that out.)
Step five: Create a bond scheme that raises a few million dolars in ‘private’ (no gov’t garantee) bonds, Ad a fee setting system and Put the basic reports out for free; charge for the advanced reports and area specific long range risk mapping and predictions. Insurance companies, event organizers and farmers will pay and the bond will make a profit over time.
Step six: Get someone to design cheap wireless weather measurement systems: temperature, wind and rain fall with cell phone based datalink back to base. Thus will allow us to rebuild the networks and put the things back in the middle of the paddocks where they belong.
Step seven: Buy a dozen more UAV’s and ripp off the weapons systems and put on weather data sensors and send there flying weather stations out to gather data in the critical holes.
Almost half of the rest is redundant if these are done.
It would be cheaper to purchase a good digital barometer with an alarm for everyone in tornado-prone areas than to fund NOAA. Sudden pressure change, ALARM!
It would save lives….and money.
The current U.S. Budget situation could be likened to this:
The Circus tent is on fire and we have the battling groups of circus clowns arguing over whether we should pour a thimble full or water of a cup of water on the growing fire.
Hence the rest of the world will realize the U.S. dollar is backed by nothing, and will no longer consider it the world currency…and when this happens, those of us who live in the U.S. and have most of our assets in U.S. dollars will see our standard of living decline– this is assured.
Perhaps, what we need is a stratigic retreat. Get rid of NOAA, which is a relatively new inserted layer of paper pushing, and reorganize the whole Department of Commerce as it was configured in the 1950s and 1960s, where the head of each division (like National Institute of Standards and National Weather Service) directly answered to the head of the Department.
It would properly cut the overhead, rather than the workers, and eliminate a great deal of paperwork. Get rid of the middle level managers, and let those above either cope with the paperwork, or let themget rid of it. Otherwise, if they do not know what to do with it, get rid of them, as they are poart of the problem. Use the ‘Last managment in, First managment out’ route to cut where it needs to be cut, not at the working personnel level. And, eliminate ‘bumping rights’ where managment can keep itself entrenched, eliminating the lower level personnel who really do the work.
It was interesting, when cuts were going on during the last half of the 1960s to the 1980s, whenever cuts were made, that the only ones who were laid off were the secretaries, which caused everything to come to a grinding halt, until they were rehired under an ’emergency’ to get things going again. Maybe the secretaries should be made the managers, and the middle managers be gotten rid of (fired), since the only people who appear to know what is going on are the secretaries (administrative assistants, not the head honchoes who rely on the secretaries to keep things going and keep them informed…). Do the same with the paper pushers in the military officer corps, to improve everything over there as well…
The frightening thing is that Reed really thinks that funding the Cowboy Poetry Festival is something the Federal Government must do. It couldn’t be done privately by cowboy poetry lovers.
Oh give me a home, oh home on the range, where seldom is heard stupid thing like this.