Global Food Prices Jump To Record Level Because of Higher Corn Prices – or the alternate title: Cornholing the future

There’s lot of gloom and doom being pushed, trying to link food prices to climate change by the usual howlers. As shown above, food prices surged to record levels in February despite February wheat and rice prices being essentially flat. Yet, February corn prices are up significantly even with 2010 being the 3rd largest U.S. corn crop ever. Why? Well part of the reason is that our cars now have a mandated, growing and voracious appetite for corn based ethanol.
Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. writes:
When certain information proves challenging to entrenched political or ideological commitments it can be easy for policy makers to ignore, downplay or even dismiss that information. It is a common dynamic and knows no political boundaries. Global Dashboard catches the Obama Administration selectively explaining the causes for increasing world food prices:
“The increase in February mostly reflected further gains in international maize prices, driven by strong demand amid tightening supplies, while prices rose marginally in the case of wheat and fell slightly in the case of rice.”
“In other words, this is mainly about corn. And who’s the biggest corn exporter in the world? The United States…And where is 40% of US corn production going this year? Ethanol, for use in US car engines.”
So here we having wailing and gnashing of teeth by the usual suspects over global food prices, and they are using this as an example of the supposed “climate change drive food prices” link. Of course there isn’t any link in this case. It’s the corn stupid.
The simple solution: stop burning food for fuel, drill for more oil, work on alternate energy system that actually might work, like thorium based nuclear power.
h/t to C3 headlines
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220mph, “There is no claim, never has been one, that ethanol will ever result in energy “independence” …. the claim is ethanol and other alternative energy fuels REDUCE our DEPENDENCE on foreign oils. They also reduce our reliance on fossil fuels.”
Who cares about reducing our use of economically viable foreign sources of energy? We are more depend on foreign countries for computer equipment manufacturing than oil and our modern economy will not work without computers anymore than it will oil. Who cares about reducing our reliance on the most economically viable source of transportation fuel (oil)?
“Every gal of ethanol DOES reduce our use of foreign oil”
So does more people riding bikes and walking.
“Every gal of ethanol used DOES reduce our use of finite fossil fuels.”
All energy sources are “finite”, the Sun is “finite”,
Myth: The World is Running Out of Oil (Video) (5min) (ABC News)
“Notwithstanding the soundly and thoroughly “dis-proven” (since I don’t want to continue the hair-splitting with poptech over “rebutted/refuted”) claims of Pimetel, Patzek and Searchinger – who are each outliers when compared to the multitude of other studies and reports – every gallon of ethanol used creates more energy than is consumed in making it.”
The papers I have presented do not have published criticisms where the author failed to respond or conceded. If the criticisms are valid they would be published.
“And every gallon of ethanol produced and used decreases emmisions and carbon footprint.”
False, as I have shown repeatedly. BTW most people here really don’t care about the ridiculous notion of their “carbon footprint”.
“The complaints over the subsidies are in the big picture really quite ridiculous. The people who complain about them have not bothered in my opinion to understand them – or place them in context.”
What is ridiculous is those who defend government welfare for corn farmers, government protectionism for the inefficient Ethanol industry and preventing consumer choice. Ethanol proponents do not want consumers to have the freedom to choose what fuel they can buy. It is green energy fascism.
“The 54 cent TARIFF is a TAX – which generates revenue for the US – regardless it has all but been eliminated … ”
Taxes are bad for the economy and bad for the consumer. The government gets plenty of revenue they don’t need anymore.
“Brazil exported almost no ethanol to the US in 2010, and is now importing ethanol themselves. The majority of the small amount of ethanol we import pays NO tariff thru exemptions in the Caribbean Basin Initiative and the CAFTA agreements.”
No kidding Brazil did not export any ethanol because they cannot afford to with the tariff! If we import almost no ethanol and the ethanol we do import does not pay the tariff how is the tariff generating any revenue? You are like a perpetual contradiction.
“We consumers paid virtually nothing in import tariffs this year or last.”
Yes we did!!! They paid higher prices for gasoline and E85 because of cheaper ethanol that was NOT imported. Do you even understand economics?
“Seems a very small price to pay for the benefits received.”
No one except your fellow green energy fascist friends care about your emotional reasoning.
220mph, “Simplistically put the cellulosic process is a souped up version of natural processes. There are MANY feedstocks suitable for ethanol and/or bio-fuel production … trees, switchgrasses, yard waste, garbage, and many more …. they are all RENEWABLE resources.”
Your magic energy sources all sound great! Let me know when they are economically viable without government subsidies, mandates and tariffs.
Dr.Dave,
A very conservative friend of mine was very fond of saying that of all the billions of taxpayer dollars spent on NASA and the space program, only one useful product came of it—-
Tang!! lol
However–you really can’t be serious. Countless products have been government funded, especially on the the basic research side before private industry commercialized the process–including the medium we are using this very moment.
One that I’m very proud of (since I am from the city) was the Northern Research Facility based in Peoria that developed the process for producing Penicillin.
Eric (skeptic) says:
March 8, 2011 at 8:12 am
John Q. Galt, a little late to the thread, were you at an ethanol drinking party? I can tell by the glazed talking points. Please provide a bit of substance if possible.
Hey Eric, go eat some corn smut. You can’t handle substance. You ethanol-bashers are as qualified to discuss agronomics as the first semester college hippies with Huffington Post blogs are qualified to discuss the carbon cycle.
Poptech says:
March 8, 2011 at 9:11 am
His credentials are more than that
Uh, no they aren’t. How is a career in eco-nazi policy advocacy something a AGW skeptic suddenly gets hard nipples for?
Not to mention his paper had eight co-authors, such as
Ah yes, the best non-agronomics science taxpayer money can buy. You sound just like a standard eco-tard with your appeal to authority.
Facts:
Corn produces 7,571 lbs dry matter per acre on 33% of grain producing farmland
Soybeans produce 2,296 lbs dry matter per acre on 30% of grain producing farmland (less food)
Wheat produces 1,920 lbs dry matter per acre on 23% of grain producing farmland (less food)
Wheat is grown for various reasons none of which is due to efficient production of food.
Wheat is tasty.
Wheat makes tasty bread.
Wheat is a winter cover crop and a co-product of hay crops.
Wheat is a cool season crop to hedge against main season crops.
Can’t grow corn.
Soybeans are the miracle crop. Soybeans are 40% high-quality protein and 20% oil. Soybeans are more expensive by 300% relative to corn. Better be some damn high-quality protein.
Any time we can replace more expensive crops is a good time. Growing corn instead of soybeans or wheat and then converting that corn into ethanol and protein replaces the services both soybeans and wheat provide to the marketplace: balancing the high-yielding, high-starch corn. When distillers grains are fed to livestock other sources of protein and energy are not fed to the livestock. This is called replacement. Because these other feed sources are not fed to livestock they are not produced. This frees up land for the crop that will be fed to livestock: corn. Corn is a more efficient crop to produce. Soybeans and wheat incure opportunity costs which are obvious when average yields are compared to corn. Opportunity costs are nothingness. Use it or lose it. That large empty space below corn’s 7,500 lbs av. DM yield is what nothingness looks like. Because we live in an Idiocracy where retarded children grow up feeling good about themselves simply because teacher gave them a banana sticker when they fail yet another test, people think not creating something is better than creating something and using it in a way that doesn’t immediately assist some crying African baby.
jimlion, “I agree completely—- in the energy arena—-name one.”
I agree in the energy area governments are highly involved causing all sorts of problems.
“What???? I have no idea how you can make such a sweeping statement. The benefits received from the government by the oil industry is not a hard number–its such a subjective glop that any discussion is meaningless.”
Yes this is true but I am commenting on the numbers I have seen commonly argued before.
“So what is the basis for your assertion? Do you have a crystal ball that tells you what oil price will be–a month from now? 6 months?”
What assertion? All my arguments are based on current and past pricing.
“And every move up in oil price makes ethanol more competitive-without mandates, subsidies, tariffs.”
Yes the price of oil is artificially moving up thanks to government restrictions on domestic production, taxes, regulations (including mandated blends) and monetary inflation. Ethanol in reality it is not more competitive, the government is artificially making oil less competitive.
[snip . . attack the problem not the person]
Poptech,
” That is fine remove them it still will not make Ethanol competitive.”
“What assertion? All my arguments are based on current and past pricing.”
First line is an assertion. You are saying that even if you “level the playing field” that ethanol can never compete.
It is also untrue.
There was at least one period in time (2008 2nd quarter if I remember correctly) in which the wholesale price of ethanol was lower than spot rack for straight unleaded. Blenders were making a killing blending ethanol at a lower price, pocketing the credit, and were enjoying a rise in pump price all at the same time. Win, win, win for the petroleum blenders while at the same time ethanol plants were shutting down because of negative margins.
You don’t need to repeat the chorus of “that’s the market with government interference”– and I am not whining—I agree –it is what it is.
But these broad statements in regards to such a volatile market that we’ve had the past several years just cannot be supported.
“Yes the price of oil is artificially moving up thanks to government restrictions on domestic production, taxes, regulations (including mandated blends) and monetary inflation. Ethanol in reality it is not more competitive, the government is artificially making oil less competitive.”
At first I was going to break these two statements apart and try to dissect out the part I believe is true–but I can’t get past the use of the word “artificial” in both sentences. Monetary inflation induced by QEII, PIGS debacle, continued incredible federal deficits–here and abroad–resulting in rapid commodity price rises—can be called “artificial” all day long–but you might as well wade out in the ocean and try to hold back the tide. Not to mention that you are ignoring the fact that US oil production does not set or even hardly influences the global marketplace. The perception/reality of mideast unrest is the ballgame now. Obama could lift every restriction there is to US oil exploration/production and the market would yawn. The only folks that would be exercised about it would be the Grist.com, Huffington Post, and Salon.com people.
Poptech says:
March 8, 2011 at 7:32 pm
220mph, “There is no claim, never has been one, that ethanol will ever result in energy “independence” …. the claim is ethanol and other alternative energy fuels REDUCE our DEPENDENCE on foreign oils. They also reduce our reliance on fossil fuels.”
Who cares about reducing our use of economically viable foreign sources of energy? We are more depend on foreign countries for computer equipment manufacturing than oil and our modern economy will not work without computers anymore than it will oil. Who cares about reducing our reliance on the most economically viable source of transportation fuel (oil)?
Your position is our reliance on foreign oil is no problem whatsoever? Do you read the papers? Watch the news? Have you checked oil prices or bought gas lately? You don’t think the oil price spikes because of the unrest in the Middle East is anything of concern? Your position becomes increasingly silly the more you go on …
“Every gal of ethanol DOES reduce our use of foreign oil”
So does more people riding bikes and walking.
So notwithstanding your red herring and attempt at misdirection, you actually admit and AGREE that using ethanol reduces use of foreign oil
“Every gal of ethanol used DOES reduce our use of finite fossil fuels.”
All energy sources are “finite”, the Sun is “finite”, Myth: The World is Running Out of Oil (Video) (5min) (ABC News)
No rational human being believe there is an infinite inexhaustable supply of fossil fuels on this planet. I do NOT think we are in imminent danger of running out, and I DO think such claims are over-exaggerated. I also absolutely think we should be drilling for our own oil.
That said to take the position we should ignore energy conservation and ignore alternate fuel options is simply ridiculous.
“Notwithstanding the soundly and thoroughly “dis-proven” (since I don’t want to continue the hair-splitting with poptech over “rebutted/refuted”) claims of Pimetel, Patzek and Searchinger – who are each outliers when compared to the multitude of other studies and reports – every gallon of ethanol used creates more energy than is consumed in making it.”
The papers I have presented do not have published criticisms where the author failed to respond or conceded. If the criticisms are valid they would be published.
ANY person who has researched the issue of net energy balance in even the least detail will know or find that Pimentel and Patzek have been the extreme virtually single outlier since the early 1990’s.
A large number of other scientific reports and studies have come to dramatically different conclusions – all remarkably similar. Pimetel and Patzek – and Searchinger as well – stand virtually alone in their findings – while a myriad of other reports and studies all find similar results – at the opposite end of the spectrum from the claims of P&P and Searchinger.
Additionally – there ARE a number of reports, reviews and the like that address the specific problems with P&P and Searchinger’s claims.
Just a few of them – note these are specific rebuttals – there are at least a dozen separate papers and studies published that perform the same analysis on net energy yields as P&P do – and virtually all come up with conslusions dramatically different than P&P – all that I am aware of find a positive net energy balance:
Michael S. Graboski of Colorado School of Mines and the National Corn Growers Association is one of the biggest challengers to Pimentel’s studies and conclusions:
“A Rebuttal to ‘Ethanol Fuels: Energy, Economics and Environmental Impacts’ by D. Pimentel”. Dr. Michael S. Graboski of the Colorado School of Mines and National Corn Growers Association – Says Pimentel’s findings are based on out-of-date statistics (22 year-old data) and are contradicted by a recent US Department of Agriculture (USDA) study.
“Comparison of USDA and Pimentel Net Energy Balances”. Dr. Michael S. Graboski Colorado School of Mines. Retrieved 9.30.07 — “The USDA analysis clearly shows, contrary to the Pimentel paper, that US farming and ethanol manufacture are very energy efficient, and that the energy content of ethanol delivered to the consumer is significantly larger than the total fossil energy inputs required to produce it. USDA estimates that ethanol facilities produce at least 1.23 units of energy as ethanol for every fossil BTU included considering all energy inputs related to corn farming, corn transport, ethanol production, and distribution and transport of finished ethanol.”
Michael Wang and Dan Santini have composed multiple studies rebutting Pimentel’s findings:
“Corn-Based Ethanol Does Indeed Achieve Energy Benefits”. Michael Wang and Dan Santini. Center for Transportation Research, Argonne National Laboratory. August, 2001 – “Prof. David Pimentel’s 1998 assessment of corn ethanol concluded that corn ethanol achieved a negative energy balance (which is usually defined as the energy in a product minus energy used to produce the product). Unfortunately, his assessment lacked timeliness in that it relied on data appropriate to conditions of the 1970s and early 1980s, but clearly not the 1990s… With up-to-date information on corn farming and ethanol production and treating ethanol co-products fairly, we have concluded that corn-based ethanol now has a positive energy balance of about 20,000 Btu per gallon.”
Michael Wang and Dan Santini of the Center for Transportation Research, Argonne National Laboratory composed analyses on energy and emission impacts of corn ethanol from 1997 through 1999, which was said by one source to have debunked Pimenel’s 1998 study.
They argue that Pimentel had been recycling his already-ancient data for at least 10 years.
“NCGA Refutes Claims of Energy Imbalance of Ethanol”. National Corn Growers Association. Retrieved 9.30.07 – “Pimentel clearly does not understand the economics of ethanol manufacture” — a full rebuttal, from the US National Corn Growers Association.
“And every gallon of ethanol produced and used decreases emissions and carbon footprint.”
False, as I have shown repeatedly. BTW most people here really don’t care about the ridiculous notion of their “carbon footprint”.
No you have not shown any such thing. Once again – you show a SINGLE paper – Searchinger – which is not supported by any other similar work I am aware of – while, as with net energy balance – there is a large body of work by many reputable sources – that clearly shows a reduction in emissions including GHG’s … which show ethanol benefits the environment in many significant ways.
And these studies also show that the positive environmental benefits are dramatically increased, as is the net energy balane, when cellulosic ethanol is the process
“The complaints over the subsidies are in the big picture really quite ridiculous. The people who complain about them have not bothered in my opinion to understand them – or place them in context.”
What is ridiculous is those who defend government welfare for corn farmers, government protectionism for the inefficient Ethanol industry and preventing consumer choice. Ethanol proponents do not want consumers to have the freedom to choose what fuel they can buy. It is green energy fascism.
No – it is a decision made after weighing all the evidence by a government of duly elected representatives. If you do not like it there is a simple solution. Vote the buggers out. Us conservatives just did that – and in a big way. And we are seeing the results of that public vote – with newly elected politicians stepping up and some making hard choices and taking unpopular hard positions.
“The 54 cent TARIFF is a TAX – which generates revenue for the US – regardless it has all but been eliminated … ”
Taxes are bad for the economy and bad for the consumer. The government gets plenty of revenue they don’t need anymore.
How simplistically silly. Its like arguing with a rock. Taxes are NOT inherently good or bad. You clearly do not understand the purpose of the tariff in the first place.
“Brazil exported almost no ethanol to the US in 2010, and is now importing ethanol themselves. The majority of the small amount of ethanol we import pays NO tariff thru exemptions in the Caribbean Basin Initiative and the CAFTA agreements.”
No kidding Brazil did not export any ethanol because they cannot afford to with the tariff! If we import almost no ethanol and the ethanol we do import does not pay the tariff how is the tariff generating any revenue? You are like a perpetual contradiction.
another grossly uninformed statement – yet it doesn’t stop you from rushing to your preconceived judgment. To claim Brazil didn’t export because they cannot afford to do so because of the tariff’s is, sorry … just laughable. First, the tariff costs Brazil virtually nothing – they paid 54 cents per gallon to the US but were paid the blenders credit which offset the tariff.
Second – Brazil does not export because they do not HAVE ethanol available to export. They are current IMPORTING ethanol to meet their own needs.
And had you bothered (or cared it seems) to try and understand, or done a little research on you own, you would have learned why the ethanol we do import pays no tariff (CBI and CAFTA exempts Carribbean and Central American country’s) and that indeed I made the point (see below) the tariff is NOT collecting hardly any money. It may still be on the books but it is not coming into play as there is little ethanol exported to US by country’s subject to the tariff.
“We consumers paid virtually nothing in import tariffs this year or last.”
Yes we did!!! They paid higher prices for gasoline and E85 because of cheaper ethanol that was NOT imported. Do you even understand economics?
Once again totally false. First there was little or no ethanol available for export from country’s subject to the tariff. There was no cheaper ethanol supply available.
More importantly – the claim of cheaper ethanol is effectively a fallacy. It is not simply true. Which I have already explained above. You have been clear you want ALL subsidies and tariffs eliminated. When you do that – if you eliminate 54 cent tariff paid to US by Brazil and eliminate 45 cent VEETC blenders credit paid to Brazil by the US – then Brazilian ethanol – even IF there was some available for export – would be almost exactly the same price as US ethanol…. there is NO “cheap” ethanol in Brazil
“Seems a very small price to pay for the benefits received.”
No one except your fellow green energy fascist friends care about your emotional reasoning.
And that shows your true self. You cannot intelligently refute or rebut. So you call names. To call me a green fascist is so gigantically wrong all I can do is laugh.
Pimentel and Patzek – a couple examples of the type serious flaws …
They use outdated, old data – on things like fertilization levels, crop yeilds, efficiencies of the ethanol process etc – from memory I believe his 2005 study used 1979 data in a number of places …
Another serious flaw is they
(a.) gave zero value to beneficial valuable by products like high value distillers dried grains animal feed in the calculations, and worse;
(b.) they assigned ALL inputs – all energy expended in the ethanol process – to the ethanol produced, despite the creation of a number of valuable byproducts – again things like distiller dried grains animal feed (which is a high value supplement vastly better for cattle and other feed uses) … they essentially treated these valuable byproducts as “waste” with no value
That is what they call “cooking the books”
An example – for illustration only and not intended to represent actual data …
Assume creating one gallon of ethanol also creates distillers dried grains animal feed, plus an amount of corn oil, plus the remaining feedstock after processing is pelletized for burning as fuel …
Lets assume when looking at the overall value of the all the products that:
Ethanol is 60% of total value of all
DDG animal feed is 30% of total value
Corn oil/bio fuel is 8%
And pelletized fuel from waste is 2%
A legitimate proper study would assign 60% of the energy expended to ethanol, 30% of energy expended to DGS animal feed, 8% to corn oil and 2% to pelletized fuel.
Pimentel assigns 100% of the energy “cost” – the energy expended – to the ethanol created – when in fact it only reflects a portion of the overall total value of all products created – in doings so he intentionally, purposely and knowingly inflates the energy required to produce ethanol.
This combined with the other inaccuracies and old, outdated data are why Pimentels work is rebutted and not taken seriously – except by those with agenda’s …
Unlike AGW there is a large degree of consensus – almost every study and report except Pimentel – that net energy yield is positive for ethanol …. just as the vast majority of similar studies on environmental impacts show a significant positive benefit to the environment from ethanol use
Ethanol byproducts have a number of possible uses …. the distillers dried grains are used a a high energy, high quality animal feed … a very large quantity of DDGs is created with ethanol manufacturing process …. using these DDGs byproducts is generally considered superior to feed cattle corn – which they are physiologically ill suited to process.
Feeding DDGs also reduces significantly the farm lands required to grow animal feed.
Additionally studies have shown hown that DDGs have potential as an organic fertilizer and for weed control
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/07/080712143153.htm
Yet another study shows DDGs could be used as a non-petroleum-based filler in plastics – DDGS have a high fiber content and a molecular structure suitable for binding—two attributes that make it a candidate as a filler in plastics
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/06/080629075630.htm
Another study also shows that DDGs could be used for food – The new foods could include cookies, breads and pastas that are low in calories and carbohydrates, but high in protein and fiber. The cookies are smaller than those made with all-wheat flour because the high-protein/low-starch combination keeps the cookie batter from spreading as easily as batter made with 100 percent wheat. But the batter bakes consistently. The main problem right now is appeal. The fermentation process used to make ethanol often imparts a bitter off-flavor and odor to distiller’s grains. But DDGs flour is often more nutritious than regular flour, because ethanol processing tends to concentrate the grain’s protein and fiber three- to nine-fold.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/06/070625221440.htm
Used of this byproduct could well alleviate the claims about land use – expansion of acreage – and about ethanol replacing food … as of today it appears the primary issue stopping use for food is taste. Starving people each a lotta things it seems that don’t taste that good … but I also suspect intelligent people can overcome the taste issue with a little effort.
NONE of my comments are intended to imply I’m a significant supporter of corn ethanol. I am not. I DO believe it is, within limits, a good interim PARTIAL solution … but I also believe that cellulosic ethanol along with various other biofuels from things like waste, algae etc will be a much more significant solution
Poptech says:
I directly answered your question which has nothing to do with some imaginary scenario you laid out. There is no monopoly for vehicle fuels, there is simply ones that are more economically viable than others. Oil (gasoline and diesel) is primarily used because it is the most economically viable. The only thing that can stop the introduction of a competing fuel is the government. Successful private investors are not stupid and will not invest in something that is not a better alternative than oil (gasoline and diesel).
I feel I should point out that there ARE some private investors putting money into some alternative fuels – especially biodiesel. Willie Nelson and his biodiesel truck stop come to mind.
I don’t recall hearing about any subsidies for his venture, though.
Tony,
Biodiesel receives a $1.00/gallon tax credit–and this credit goes directly to the producer. I do not know of any alternative energy research, development, operations that do not receive some form of grant, subsidy, tax credit, or mandate at the state/federal level.
The notion that ethanol could not be competitive in a free market is not well founded; nor is the notion that cellulosic ethanol is technologically or industrially unproven or impracticable. In 1971, long before ethanol became a political football, and long before it attracted any subsidies, it sold commercially in the UK at 2.92p/lb, most of it produced by sulphuric acid hydolysis of cellulose. At that time when petrol was 34.5p/gall (4.73p/lb), of which 22.5p/gall was duty. Had the ethanol been used as an additive it would probably have attracted a duty ~1.85p/lb, for a total of 4.77p/lb. As such it would have been a cost effective octane enhancer for unleaded petrol, in the region of 5-10% by weight (though at that time we used leaded petrol almost exclusively). It would not have been cost effective as a mass market alternative to petrol (in the E85 region), assuming the same level of duty, but it wouldn’t have fallen far short either. Production and demand were low by today’s standards, but ramping them up would probably have meant significant reductions in unit cost, improving ethanol’s competitiveness further. There is no reason to believe that ethanol and petrol prices would be radically divergent in a free market (if one were actually on offer!); I suspect that the most probable outcome would be the continued use of ethanol as a 5-10% additive, with the continued dominance of petrol (including synthetic petrol) as the main fuel component.
Please remember that just because the government imposes a mandate or creates a subsidy, it doesn’t follow that the mandated economic shift wouldn’t have happened without them. It is common practice for governments to introduce such measures so they can claim credit for improvements that would have occurred anyway (though possibly a little more slowly and more efficiently).
Oops! Hydrolysis.
Jimlion,
“I do not know of any alternative energy research, development, operations that do not receive some form of grant, subsidy, tax credit, or mandate at the state/federal level.”
The polywell (inertial electric containment) didn’t receive any funding at state/federal level. It was financed by the Navy, but the expenses were hidden within other headings, to prevent it from being discovered by the Government or the scientists at the big fusion research.
I raised this point to illustrate that governments do not fund every line of research, and go with the mainstream. Governments are strictly consensus investors.
Vince,
I really don’t mean to be specious here–but I am very glad to be corrected that the Navy, DOD, DOE, and the 2009 economic stimulus act are not a part of the Federal government.
Otherwise, I am glad that you mentioned this project–I vaguely remembered reading something about it several years ago–but you prompted me to look it up—Thanks!
(Emphasis added)
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Business/A-Senior-HSBC-Economist-Warns-Of-Food-Riots-In-The-UK-If-Prices-Continue-To-Soar/Article/201103215948496
The rising cost of fossil oil makes the costs of food rise. Therefore we divert resources that could be used for growing food (when there’s a high demand and high prices for food) and instead grow crops for biofuels, causing further reductions in food supplies with still higher food prices. That makes sense? High fuel costs are making biofuels look more attractive. So will we be (eventually) producing enough biofuels to drive down fuel costs? Nah. What’s currently driving up fossil oil prices is speculation based on turbulent political conditions, not an actual lack of supply. These times shall pass, the prices shall drop, and the suppliers of fossil oil are smart enough to let those prices drop low enough to wipe out biofuels as an economically-viable alternative in a free market. They can raise prices after the capacity to make biofuels goes away, keeping them just above the potential biofuel prices to dissuade investment and the rebuilding of capacity. Only government intervention, likely as high fuel prices, will keep biofuels as viable with sufficient capacity in place for use as an alternate. Note, the high fuel prices can come from assorted taxes, but also from mandated use of biofuels as suppliers will be motivated to limit available supplies to maximize profits (here comes Bio-OPEC).
It’s also an illogical displacement. Currently in the US we can’t grow enough stuff to convert to biofuels to displace our fossil fuel usage, even if we had the capacity to make that much biofuel, let alone increase the supply and reduce fuel costs, and that’s without still growing enough food to feed ourselves, let alone doing so affordably. But we can relatively easily develop new US sources of fossil petroleum (oil and gas), even pursue coal-to-oil, and drive down fuel costs while reducing food costs. We would be better off building nuclear plants for electricity, displacing coal as an energy source for electricity that would then be freed up for coal-to-oil, than switching to biofuels like ethanol.
And yes, the goal should be thinking in terms of fuel and food self-sufficiency, for matters of trade balances if not in actual practice. We can, for example, sell Honduras some wheat while buying some bananas, but we don’t want to be caught where they stop buying our wheat but we must still buy their bananas as we are growing no substitutable crops.
For those awaiting cellulosic ethanol or even algae oil, good luck. We can be successfully doing coal-to-oil right now while waiting for those biofuels to be competitive. If we did build up a successful coal-to-oil infrastructure, would those biofuels still be competitive? And for the cellulosic ethanol enthusiasts, how is it better than simply burning the raw material for heat (including electricity generation, even co-generation)? Or even simply running a composting operation making methane (natural gas) and mulch? Composting can generate substantial amounts of waste heat which can also be utilized.
jimlion says:
Biodiesel receives a $1.00/gallon tax credit–and this credit goes directly to the producer. I do not know of any alternative energy research, development, operations that do not receive some form of grant, subsidy, tax credit, or mandate at the state/federal level.
I was not aware of that. I stand corrected – looks like Willie is getting subsidized after all.
jimlion says:
March 9, 2011 at 9:09 am
“Vince,
I really don’t mean to be specious here–but I am very glad to be corrected that the Navy, DOD, DOE, and the 2009 economic stimulus act are not a part of the Federal government.”
Although I appreciate sarcasm as much as the next man, I really think you are missing the point. The Navy did fund polywell, and they are indeed part of the DOD. However, the point to note is that the Navy funded this in a clandestine way without the knowledge of the DOD and government, which was why the expenditure was kept below a threshold so that it avoided being a separate line item in the accounts.
I hope you agree with my assertion that governments only fund mainstream science.
Looks like there are legitimate problems with Ethanol and Small Engines,
Is There A Killer In Your Boat? (Boating Magazine)
“To ascertain ethanol’s effect on performance, we ran separate tests of a 2008 Boston Whaler 180 Dauntless with the 150 hp Verado, once on E10 and again on ethanol-free gasoline. The ethanol-powered motor showed a slight fall-off in our performance tests. At maximum throttle, the engine running on ethanol dropped only 10 rpm from when it ran on gasoline. Acceleration time from a standstill to 30 mph was off by a 10th of a second — about 2 percent.
Our fuel-flow numbers resulted in a similar gap between ethanol and straight gas. Economy fell off with E10 at a rate of a half-gallon per hour difference at 3,000 rpm, or $2 for every cruising hour.
Mercury engineers weren’t surprised at our performance or fuel economy results. The company’s engines are tuned to hit horsepower, torque and fuel-burn targets with either E10 or unblended gasoline. “We’re actually calibrating our engines slightly richer to protect the customer who burns E10,” says Tim Reid, director of engine design and development for both Mercury and MerCruiser. This protection is needed because E10 contains oxygen molecules not present in straight gasoline. For a preset ratio of air and fuel, E10 burns leaner, increasing cylinder and exhaust temperatures. Adding a bit more fuel to richen the mix cools things down with E10, but wastes a bit of fuel when burning straight gasoline. […]
Many problems have arisen because ethanol is a polar solvent — electrically charged to make or break chemical bonds much the way magnets repel or attract each other. Gasoline is comprised of mostly nonpolar compounds.
“I think it’s the interaction that’s causing the problems,” says Frank Kelley, Mercury marine’s fuels and lubricants specialist. This interaction strips years of gasoline varnish from the inside of fuel tanks, rapidly clogging fuel filters. It also rankles engineers who for decades assumed strong polar solvents like ethanol wouldn’t find their way into fuel. High-end builders, for example, preferred fiberglass fuel tanks, since they would — and did — outlast aluminum tanks many times over. But ethanol breaks down polyester resins, destroying tanks built in the ’60s, ’70s and ’80s and ruining attached engines in just weeks. […]
Ethanol does have innocent victims. My brother-in-law filled his 10-year-old 30-foot center console with E10 and then ran to his slip. A few days later my wife and I ran the boat barely two miles before deteriorated hoses choked its 225 Optimax outboards to a sputter. While the boat shouldn’t have fallen victim to ethanol, our Florida Keys vacation was a fatality. The inner liner of the fuel hose simply fell apart, clogging the fuel system. Jim Lawrence of J&B marine in Tavernier, Florida, had seen it before. “I found particles and pieces in the [fuel] filter,” Lawrence says. “Particles from the fuel tank should be flat, but these had a radius to them. When I pulled the hose off, it was pretty obvious.” In fact, rubber hose deteriorations are plaguing Floridians on boats only three years old.
So why does ethanol attack supposedly resistant hoses? “Ethanol changes the chemical environment,” Kelley says. Years of soaking in ordinary gasoline and exposure to heat, cold and sun also affect hose chemistry unpredictably. “It would be awfully difficult to replicate [those conditions in a laboratory],” Kelley says. Still, he doesn’t see this as the likely cause for hose problems in South Florida. Instead, he blames phase separation, which occurs because polarized water molecules bond with polarized ethanol. In small quantities, the two stay suspended in gasoline, but add too much water and the mixture separates and settles. “We’ve always had phase separation. When you don’t have ethanol, it can take a few parts per million to get phase separation,” Kelley explains, meaning water in the bottom of gasoline tanks years ago also contained polar compounds from the gasoline. “With E10, instead of a few hundred parts per million of something coming out of the gasoline, it’s more like 5,000, 6,000, 7,000 parts per million. There’s no place for that amount of material to hide.”
Kelley says the resulting cocktail expands anywhere from two to eight times beyond the original volume of water. “It gets sucked up into the engine. It doesn’t burn, and the combination of water and ethanol is extremely corrosive.”
Phase separation might explain the geographic or sporadic nature of some problems. Two years ago on Long Island, for example, boats that had been running E10 for years suddenly had hose problems identical to those in the Keys. That also happened to be a particularly rainy summer. South Florida is certainly prime territory for water in fuel, but problems occurred even when tanks seemed fine. The key might be that phase separation is temperature dependent. Lake water and seawater buffer temperatures in fuel tanks, but fuel in hoses, filters, carburetors, fuel pumps and vapor separator tanks may phase-separate when temperatures drop — these are costly components that are inexplicably failing on boats using E10. “You’re getting a concentration of all things that damage polymers,” Kelley says. […]
South Florida also has long had problems with water in fuel. “My phone has been ringing off the hook for 35 years. Ethanol just made it ring more,” says Skip Trent, whose business is removing contaminants from gas and diesel tanks from Miami through the Florida Keys. […]
Unfortunately, when E10 phase-separates, it loses one or two octane points, so it has to be discarded. “With [unblended] gasoline, I could clean your fuel and tanks and return the good fuel. You’d lose maybe 10 gallons,” Trent says. “Now, if I test it and it [contains] ethanol, I’m going to dispose of [all] this material.”“
jimlion, “First line is an assertion. You are saying that even if you “level the playing field” that ethanol can never compete. It is also untrue. There was at least one period in time (2008 2nd quarter if I remember correctly) in which the wholesale price of ethanol was lower than spot rack for straight unleaded. Blenders were making a killing blending ethanol at a lower price, pocketing the credit, and were enjoying a rise in pump price all at the same time. Win, win, win for the petroleum blenders while at the same time ethanol plants were shutting down because of negative margins.”
I have seen nothing to support this claim. It is also irrelevant because a single quarter does not make something competitive.
“Monetary inflation induced by QEII, PIGS debacle, continued incredible federal deficits–here and abroad–resulting in rapid commodity price rises—can be called “artificial” all day long–but you might as well wade out in the ocean and try to hold back the tide. Not to mention that you are ignoring the fact that US oil production does not set or even hardly influences the global marketplace.”
It is still artificial and does not represent a true market price for oil. I was not talking about U.S. oil production but U.S. monetary policy which has a global effect on commodity prices, especially oil which is pegged to the U.S. Dollar since it is the world’s reserve currency.
“Obama could lift every restriction there is to US oil exploration/production and the market would yawn.”
Absolute nonsense. If every U.S. restriction was lifted you would see a significant drop in the price of oil. There are trillions of barrels of oil reserves in the U.S.,
– 1.8 to 6 Trillion barrels of oil are estimated in the U.S. Oil-Shale Reserves (DOE)
– 100 Billion barrels of heavy oil are estimated in the U.S. (DOE)
– 90 Billion barrels of oil are estimated in the Arctic (USGS)
– 89 Billion barrels of immobile oil are estimated recoverable using CO2 injection in the U.S. (DOE)
– 86 Billion barrels of oil are estimated in the U.S. Outer Continental Shelf (MMS)
– 60 to 80 Billion barrels of oil are estimated in U.S. Tar Sands (DOE)
– 32 Billion barrels of oil are estimated in ANWR, NPRA and the Central North Slope in Alaska (USGS)
– 4.3 Billion (167 Billion potential) barrels of oil are estimated in the U.S. Bakken shale formation in North Dakota and Montana (USGS)
– 3.65 Billion barrels of oil are estimated in the U.S. Devonian-Mississippian Bakken Formation (USGS)
– 1.6 Billion barrels of oil are estimated in the U.S. Eastern Great Basin Province (USGS)
– 1.3 Billion barrels of oil are estimated in the U.S. Permian Basin Province (USGS)
– 1.1 Billion barrels of oil are estimated in the U.S. Powder River Basin Province (USGS)
– 990 Million barrels of oil are estimated in the U.S. Portion of the Michigan Basin (USGS)
– 393 Million barrels of oil are estimated in the U.S. San Joaquin Basin Province of California (USGS)
– 214 Million barrels of oil are estimated in the U.S. Illinois Basin (USGS)
– 172 Million barrels of oil are estimated in the U.S. Yukon Flats of East-Central Alaska (USGS)
– 131 Million barrels of oil are estimated in the U.S. Southwestern Wyoming Province (USGS)
– 109 Million barrels of oil are estimated in the U.S. Montana Thrust Belt Province (USGS)
– 104 Million barrels of oil are estimated in the U.S. Denver Basin Province (USGS)
– 98.5 Million barrels of oil are estimated in the U.S. Bend Arch-Fort Worth Basin Province (USGS)
– 94 Million barrels of oil are estimated in the U.S. Hanna, Laramie, Shirley Basins Province (USGS)
220mph, “Your position is our reliance on foreign oil is no problem whatsoever? Do you read the papers? Watch the news? Have you checked oil prices or bought gas lately? You don’t think the oil price spikes because of the unrest in the Middle East is anything of concern? Your position becomes increasingly silly the more you go on …”
No, I have no problem with using economically viable foreign sources of energy. Why would I want to pay more for energy? Do you even know where our oil comes from?
– The largest supplier of oil to the U.S. is Canada (EIA)
– The second largest supplier of oil to the U.S. is Mexico (EIA)
– Only 14% of U.S. oil imports come from the Middle East (EIA)
“So notwithstanding your red herring and attempt at misdirection, you actually admit and AGREE that using ethanol reduces use of foreign oil”
Your argument is so absurdly ridiculous. Yes using a more expensive gallon of ethanol that reduces fuel economy, has to be subsidized, mandated and protected by tariffs reduces the use of a gallon of economically viable foreign oil.
Using any other fuel besides foreign oil would reduce the use of foreign oil, that does not mean it makes sense or is economically viable. Why not just ban foreign oil all together? That would REALLY reduce our use!
“That said to take the position we should ignore energy conservation and ignore alternate fuel options is simply ridiculous.”
Who is ignoring them? What part of economically viable do you not understand? I take it you never heard of Jevons Paradox?
The Efficiency Paradox (Peter Huber, Ph.D. Mechanical Engineering, MIT)
The Jevons Paradox (CounterPunch)
“ANY person who has researched the issue of net energy balance in even the least detail will know or find that Pimentel and Patzek have been the extreme virtually single outlier since the early 1990′s.”
Incorrect,
A Comprehensive Energy and Economic Assessment of Biofuels: When “Green” Is Not Enough
(Critical Reviews in Plant Sciences, Volume 20, Number 1, pp. 71-106, January-February 2001)
– Sergio Ulgiati
“I conclude that the biofuel option on a large scale is not a viable alternative based on economic, energy and eMergy (amount of available energy [exergy] of one form [usually solar] that is directly or indirectly required to provide a given flow or storage of exergy or matter) analyses of the case study data and estimated possible improvement of yield and efficiency. This is true for developed countries due to their huge energy demand compared with what biofuel options are able to supply as well as for developing countries due to the low yield of their agriculture and competition for land and water for food production.”
“Additionally – there ARE a number of reports, reviews and the like that address the specific problems with P&P and Searchinger’s claims.”
They are either not peer-reviewed or are not published criticisms of the papers I presented. If their criticisms were valid they should have submitted them to the journal so the authors had a chance to respond to them.
“No you have not shown any such thing. Once again – you show a SINGLE paper – Searchinger – which is not supported by any other similar work I am aware of – while, as with net energy balance – there is a large body of work by many reputable sources – that clearly shows a reduction in emissions including GHG’s … which show ethanol benefits the environment in many significant ways.”
Incorrect,
Effects of US Maize Ethanol on Global Land Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Estimating Market-mediated Responses
(BioScience, Volume 60, Number 3, pp. 223-231, March 2010)
– Thomas W. Hertel et al.
“Releases of greenhouse gases (GHG) from indirect land-use change triggered by crop-based biofuels have taken center stage in the debate over the role of biofuels in climate policy and energy security. This article analyzes these releases for maize ethanol produced in the United States. Factoring market-mediated responses and by-product use into our analysis reduces cropland conversion by 72% from the land used for the ethanol feedstock. Consequently, the associated GHG release estimated in our framework is 800 grams of carbon dioxide per megajoule (MJ); 27 grams per MJ per year, over 30 years of ethanol production, or roughly a quarter of the only other published estimate of releases attributable to changes in indirect land use. Nonetheless, 800 grams are enough to cancel out the benefits that corn ethanol has on global warming, thereby limiting its potential contribution in the context of California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard.”
What is ridiculous is those who defend government welfare for corn farmers, government protectionism for the inefficient Ethanol industry and preventing consumer choice. Ethanol proponents do not want consumers to have the freedom to choose what fuel they can buy. It is green energy fascism.
“No – it is a decision made after weighing all the evidence by a government of duly elected representatives. If you do not like it there is a simple solution. Vote the buggers out. Us conservatives just did that – and in a big way. And we are seeing the results of that public vote – with newly elected politicians stepping up and some making hard choices and taking unpopular hard positions.”
It is not “conservative” to support socialist economic policies, subsidies, mandates and tariffs are economically illiterate populist and progressive ideas.
“How simplistically silly. Its like arguing with a rock. Taxes are NOT inherently good or bad. You clearly do not understand the purpose of the tariff in the first place.”
Taxes are always bad for whomever in the economy is taxed. They are only good for the government. They are thus always negative towards economic growth. I understand tariffs incredibly well. They are a protectionist measure to protect inefficient businesses from competition with more efficient ones. I do not support protecting inefficient businesses from competition nor do I support the result which is increased consumer prices for the product that the tariff is applied to.
“another grossly uninformed statement – yet it doesn’t stop you from rushing to your preconceived judgment. To claim Brazil didn’t export because they cannot afford to do so because of the tariff’s is, sorry … just laughable. First, the tariff costs Brazil virtually nothing – they paid 54 cents per gallon to the US but were paid the blenders credit which offset the tariff.”
What are you talking about? Receiving the 45 cent blenders credit does not offset a 99 cent advantage to U.S. Ethanol producers who are not paying the 54 cent tariff. Brazilian ethanol producers are at a 54 cent disadvantage to U.S. ethanol producers due to the tariff.
“First there was little or no ethanol available for export from country’s subject to the tariff. There was no cheaper ethanol supply available.”
Of course no one would invest in increasing exports when the tariff makes that venture not economically viable. Don’t you understand that any such tariff discourages investment in exports to a country for the product a tariff is applied to?
“More importantly – the claim of cheaper ethanol is effectively a fallacy. It is not simply true. ”
Then there would be no need for the tariff.
Research on cellulosic ethanol (inspired by Paul Birch’s comment on March 9, 2011 at 8:15 am):
Great review of the processes, historic and “emerging” methods, with yield info, dated 2002:
http://www.hort.purdue.edu/newcrop/ncnu02/v5-017.html
Near the bottom is “A partial listing of companies developing ethanol-from-cellulose technologies.” The first is BCI, “Plant to break ground in 2002”, using bagasse as the feedstock, a leftover product of sugarcane processing.
Nice 2000 journal article on products of sugarcane processing, mentions BCI:
http://pubs.acs.org/subscribe/journals/ci/30/i11/html/11taylor.html
Bagasse is basically free for the shipping, making it attractive as a feedstock. It’s currently used for compost, animal feed, and is a source of furfural, from which valuable chemicals are derived. Note that in the above review, furfural is an undesirable product of acid hydrolysis, a first stage of cellulose-to-ethanol where the cellulose is converted to sugars but then the sugars rapidly break down into furfural and other degradation products, and those products can be poisonous to fermentation microorganisms. Bagasse may also be used for paper and particleboard.
Found in the journal article:
Note the strange shift, BCI apparently went from rebuilding a “failed grain-to-ethanol plant” to “breaking ground.”
Another BCI mention from 2000 is here, they opened a new development lab at the University of Florida.
BTW, that was President Bill Clinton’s E.O.
Google found a 2006 BCI reference here on an apparently abandoned site, BCI is one of two ethanol companies mentioned. This yielded the following web site address, same as the address in the other 2000 mention:
http://www.bcintlcorp.com/
Don’t bother clicking, it’s a zombie site, the type that looks like it has content, has terms like might have been on the old site, but actually just serves up search results, as in “sponsored” links. I’ve seen this used before with the addresses of former companies, luring in people looking for the old site.
The other company mentioned was Pacific Ethanol, a marketer and “traditional” producer of ethanol on the West Coast (uses corn). A March 7, 2011 newspaper article mentions how they had gone bankrupt, closed down, and are now restarting 3 of 5 production plants to take advantage of high fuel costs. Also (bold added):
On Pacific Ethanol’s site, “Latest News” item #2 (pdf) is about a 180 day extension being granted, they now have until June 27, 2011 to get their share price up to the $1 minimum to retain their NASDAQ listing. Currently, by the indicator on their site, they’re at 71 cents, with zero trading volume, and zero change.
Under “Investors” they have their 3rd Quarter 2010 financial results, as a PowerPoint presentation converted to pdf. Near as I can tell from the unaudited numbers, they might have been profitable during those three months, or at least the adjusted EBITDA number is positive. Note the “Changes in Accounting Practices” slide, someone more well-versed in financial statements could find something off with recent changes, as well as the numbers.
From slide 9 (pdf pg 10), “Executing Growth Strategy,” comes:
From the next slide, “Investment Rationale,” comes this in their list of recent accomplishments (bold added):
To mention it, that’s a rather glaring error (should be “growing”) in a document for current and potential investors. What does that say about this company?
Adding everything together, it is clear that government-mandated use of (corn-based) ethanol and government-provided subsides, with the assist of high fuel prices, rescued Pacific Ethanol from mothballed status. Actually they failed before even with the federal subsidy (tax credit) of an amazing $18.90 per US oil barrel (42 US gallons), and while the current higher fuel prices may help, it is clear the California-based company is pegging their hopes on the “state and federal” government-mandated artificial demand for their product.
In a free market, without government mandates, Pacific Ethanol would cease to exist, if it would have existed at all.
Interesting Note:
I’ve discovered another major reason for the surge in popularity for cellulosic ethanol. From Wikipedia’s Ethanol fuel in the United States entry, “Tax Credits” section (needs some updating, bold added):
Reference 29: “Using Biofuel Tax Credits to Achieve Energy and Environmental Policy Goals”, Congressional Budget Office, July 2010 (link to pdf).
Those numbers are found in Table 1, on pdf pg 12, document pg 2. Some clarifications found there:
and
How does this all add up? From document pg VIII, pdf pg 10, among “CBO’s main conclusions”:
But that $1.62 for a gallon gasoline equivalent isn’t the whole story.
From here, in case you were wondering, is mention that the cellulosic ethanol tax credit was also extended to 2012. (BTW, the USDA is providing loan guarantees for cellulosic ethanol developers, for loans worth hundreds of millions of dollars. With loan providers thusly shielded from losses due to loan defaults, speculative lending increases.)
Thus it is noted:
1. Cellulosic ethanol receives about 2 1/4 times the subsidy of corn-based ethanol. That alone is a major incentive to develop and produce cellulosic ethanol.
2. If a US taxpayer at the pump could decide between using gasoline or cellulosic ethanol, not only would they be paying $3 for every gallon of gasoline they decide to not buy, they’d still be also paying for the cellulosic ethanol they buy. That’s a pretty hefty cost for something the CBO concluded still isn’t commercially viable even with the $1.01/gallon tax credit.
Remember, ethanol is taxed at the same rate as gasoline at the u.s. federal and most state levels and so the net tax rate at the pump is approximately 50% greater when corrected for btu content (net mileage). It’s even worse when compared to diesel considering greater engine efficiency on that platform. The exception to this is when it is blended with gasoline where it is not taxed at all at the federal level. The same per-gallon tax rates also apply to sales taxes and other fees.
Comment jockeys with some scientific graphing software feel free to visualize the data found in these charts: http://www.api.org/statistics/fueltaxes/