Brief news by Ryan Maue
The recent oil price shock likely hasn’t figured into the February sales numbers at GM or Nissan, which announced their electric vehicle sales numbers for the month. Actually, there wasn’t an announcement, but you can find the information buried in a PDF file:
GM “delivered” 281 Volts in February, which is a function of the extremely slow nationwide roll-out of the newfangled buggy. This is clearly the window of opportunity with the much higher gas prices to take advantage (of) consumers who may spring the cash for an electric car. Then, they can watch their new PG&E Smart Meter spin wildly in delight. Either way, it’s very early in the game.
Indeed, with gasoline prices soaring past $4 a gallon in California and elsewhere, the demand for the Volt and Nissan Leaf should continue to soar. Coupled with generous government subsidies provided by Uncle Sam, a new Volt may provide quite a charge to the US economy, or not. With the announcement of Ipad 2.0 yesterday by Steve Jobs, early adopters will be lining up again to buy a thinner, better version of favorite toy. It’s early in the game for the Volt, Leaf, and other electric buggies, but when supply ramps up to meet the burgeoning demand, we can expect the marketplace to expand with many more options. However, until then, outfits like Consumer Reports aren’t exactly enthused with the efficiency of the Volt of the Leaf, considering the sticker.
It gets worse. CR figures the cost of recharging the Volt would work out to about 5.7 cents a mile for electric mode and 10 cents a mile for gas. Yet a Toyota Prius, which gets about 50 miles a gallon, would cost 6.8 cents a mile to operate. A Prius costs half as much as a Volt.CR seems to feel a little better about the all-electric Leaf. It borrowed one from Nissan while it awaits delivery of its own. The $35,270 electric car had its range severely restricted by the cold weather that has gripped the East, much like the Volt. The range has been averaging 65 miles, not the 100 miles that Nissan bills. Plus the mileage gauge isn’t that accurate in the cold when electric heaters gobble up kilowatts. Instead of the 36 miles of range that the car said it had, one tester got 19.
Yet CR said other than range, it liked a lot of things about the Leaf. It accelerated rapidly and climbed hills well. It said it would be a good second car in urban area if it is in “a temperate climate.” Guess that rules out the Northeast, Midwest, deserts and a bunch of other places.
Mike Edwards.
“OK, the VW XL1 is really a concept car, but there are family sized diesels already doing 74mpg, small cars doing 82mpg –”
Imperial gallons
Here they get 51 and 68 respectively.
The embedded carbon in electric cars is another issue worth exploring if you are concerned about carbon emissions. Hi tech electric machinery and batteries require a lot of carbon to build and maintain and if your Volt is running on coal generated electricity what is the net carbon saving per mile?
However I agree with James that we shouldn’t be to down on electric cars as they may play a role in our transport future as long as we don’t have to rely on wind energy to charge them up.
Would an electric golf cart not get you the same thing?
We have a lot of cheap hydro electricity here and the potential to create a lot more, problem is our climate, it can be brutally cold in the winter so electric car range would be severely restricted.
The Volt might answer some of that problem by charging on the go but I don’t think that pure electric cars like the Leaf will work here. The other problem for us here is that, at least right now, there is no major government subsidy to be had to buy one which makes them prohibitively expensive. As others have mentioned, there are many other ways to go if all you are after is fuel savings.
As far as a technology development platform its probably a good thing, hopefully there will be a battery/capacitor/fuel cell breakthrough to make them more functional.
In the meantime the less gas that other folks are using should help keep the price down for the rest of us, so I wish the General well even though I’m a Ford guy.
In addition to other valid points folks posted above, let’s do a little very rough back of the envelope calculating here. Now, correct me if I’m off somewhere…. first, using the figures from this article, let’s say the average cost of charging the electric car is about 8 cents/mile. Then let’s use a fairly common 25 mpg gasoline car, and $4/gallon gasoline. At that price, it’s about 16 cents/mile to fuel the gasoline car. So, there’s an 8 cents per mile difference between electric v gasoline.
Then I believe its fairly reasonable to say that a comparable gas car v electric can be had for about $15K less (e.g., $20K to $30K for gas v $35K to $40+K for Leaf or Volt, right? So I think if anything I’m significantly underestimating the cost difference gas v electric, no?). Now take the average 15,000 miles traveled per year for vehicles in the USA.
8 cents a mile for a total of 15,000 miles would be a rough fuel cost difference of $1200 per year less for electric v gas.
So, one would have to drive the electric vehicle for about 12.5 YEARS before you manage to just break even on the fuel cost savings from buying that electric vehicle. This of course doesn’t begin to address other cost issues like maintenance (including cost of replacement battery packs)…. but tell me how this makes sense? Or did I fubar the math here somewhere?
I would suit me for my daily commute, about 15km each way, and never gets below about 10C.
BUT
I would obviously HAVE TO KEEP my Volvo wagon that will go up to 800km between refills, fully loaded (and I mean, fully), takes about 5 minutes to refill for another 800km, and is very safe should I be unfortunate enough to have a collision. This new car would not cover any of that.
So, yes, as been pointed out, the ‘already rich’ can have a bit more at the expense of the real workers & taxpayers.
james says:
March 3, 2011 at 2:05 pm
“Why all the negativity on electric cars?”
Two words: Energy density. You just don’t get close to chemical energy stored in hydrocarbons.
So, what real options are there? The easiest one is: why do you want to store electricity in bulky batteries when electricity can be transmitted on the fly? You can store chemical energy very well in a tank; you can not do it very well with electricity.
Electricity has complementary features to chemical energy, so why keep the “local storage” idea developed for chemical energy? A failed requirement analysis it is, nothing more.
How do you transmit it? Inductively, via near-field coupling; EM resonance. There are factory floor wagons using that principle; there are companies trying to scale it up to cars / highways, planning “recharging lanes”. Sorry, i didn’t store the link, i saw a presentation. Can somebody else help?
I’ve read in a few places, that if electric cars became popular, that night time charging could put a major strain on our already decrepit grid. the following article equates 10000 miles as 1.2 house/year usage.
Driving 10,000 miles on electricity will use about 2,500 kilowatt hours, or 20 percent more than the average annual consumption of U.S. homes. At an average utility rate of 11 cents per kilowatt hour, that’s $275 for a year of fuel, equivalent to about 70 cents per gallon of gasoline.
http://www.nj.com/business/index.ssf/2010/11/utilities_worry_charging_elect.html
Makes TeslaMotors’ strategy look good. It started at the top end, with a sports/supercar (Roadster) worth over $100K, with 230 (real proven in use) mile range. Next up a $58K (minus any rebates etc.) 7-passenger sports sedan. Its range will vary with battery options, up to 300 mi. (‘Model S’).
The Moore’s Law re batteries, btw, could be quite realistic. MIT & Stanford are doing miracles with nanotech electrodes in LiIon batteries.
Currently 15,000 Roadsters on the road(s) across the world, doing fine in snow and desert and mountain (maybe one of the best mountain cars evah!) The ‘S’ is a from-the-ground-up fresh designed and engineered deal… About 4,000 pre-sold for delivery beginning next year, rising fast.
Next up an SUV on the same chassis, and then a smaller family car around $30K, same or better range.
Tesla is intending to act as a forcer/catalyst for the industry, but it looks like the response so far is quite a bit under the mark.
Pull My Finger says:
March 3, 2011 at 1:39 pm
Other than the fact the range renders it useless… we love it.
If I’m only driving to work, why not buy an old Geo, Tercel, Metro, whatever, for probably $1000? Oh yes, that does not appease Gai, nor feed her crusaders coffers. Sorry, forgot.
This strategy provides a bit of an explanation for the otherwise thoroughly illogical “Cash for Clunkers” program. While it did generate some new car sales, at a cost to the taxpayers at least double the value of the vehicles sold, its major contribution was to greatly reduce the supply of used vehicles, especially in the clunker range which are the only transport option available to the segment of the population that is supposedly the primary concern of the pols who sponsored CFC. The net result was a big spike upward in the prices of used vehicles. I suppose it is a bit cynical to assume that was the plan all along, but when you figure to charge over $40K for a vehicle that has the size and amenities of competitors available for $18K-$23K, you need all the help you can get.
GM claimed they would like to sell at most 60K of the Volt per year, but in 3 months they’ve managed to unload less than a thousand and sales have declined each month. This despite taxpayer funded subsidies of over 25% of the sticker. The Nissan Leaf despite being widely lauded at its release has been mostly in double digits per month sales wise. Even the greenies who told us we all need to be driving these things to save the planet don’t want them now that they are finally available. They’d love to have a nice Tesla roadster, but those cost more than a Porsche and are mostly a weekend toy, not practical transport.
Thomas Edison spent a considerable amount of time, energy and money trying to develop and manufacture batteries for an electric automobile. He started his efforts in the 1890s and had several factories producing batteries for an all electric vehicle. Unfortunately the product never lived up to his promises and claims. He shut down his factory in West Orange NJ some time after 1909 when his friend Henry Ford introduced the model T which featured an internal combustion engine. Investigation into battery technology has continued since then without the significant breakthrough that could justify an electric vehicle. As mentioned above it is unusual to apply Moore’s Law to something that has been under development for 120 years.
DirkH;
Inductive in roads is a pipe dream. The losses are huge, and the maintenance is impossible. A factory floor is a totally different environment.
Batteries will work fine. Users of the TeslaMotors Roadster have almost no problems with charging or range.
The iPad 2 is also overhyped.
http://images.tipb.com/images/stories/2011/03/ipad_2_xoom_optimus-pad_galaxy-tab_touchpad_playbook_specs.jpg
Soon will be the time to buy a gas guzzler. People will irrationally be selling their’s at pennies on the dollar to turn around and sink $35k in another car with higher efficiency. $35k buys a lot of gasoline by the way.
If you can get the gas guzzler at a good enough price, it more than offsets the high gas prices.
I was waiting for the administration to pre-emptively attack Consumer Reports before they could release their review of the
DVolt, but I guess they fell asleep.One thing to remember is that GM is selling this car exclusively to the urban market, so the short distance per charge is almost a moot point. Mentioning the iPad is a sound comparison; the iPad is a relatively unproductive device that is the epitome of waste, much like the Dolt will be.
TrueNorthist (Formerly INGSOC)
I had a 1992 Pontiac Sunbird. 4 cylinder gasoline engine. A/C, power steering, 5 speed manual transmission. Routinely got 45 mpg. Girlfriend had a VW rabbit diesel… That got over 50 mpg. Hybrids with all their fancy “Green” technology would love to get those mpg’s. What gives?
R John says:
March 3, 2011 at 1:50 pm
A conversion to natural gas costs some where around $2,000 I think. Natural gas is roughly $0.75/gallon. For a car getting 30mpg, this equates to 2.5 cents per mile if my math is correct. Why the heck are we not doing this???
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I don’t know the percentage, but here in oil rich Alberta, a LOT of people drive propane powered vehicles, mostly pickup trucks and RV’s. Most are set up for dual fuel so you can run on gasoline if you can’t get propane where you are traveling.
http://www.oee.nrcan.gc.ca/transportation/alternative-fuels/fuel-facts/propane/propane-availability.cfm?attr=16
The biggest problem for electric vehicles is that the electrical transmission infrastructure cannot deliver the required current to tens of millions of charging stations needing power at typically the same times. The energy density of gasoline is huge if you compare it to the amount put into a cars tank in 1 minute compared to electricity. Charging cables would need to be sending many hundreds of amps to compare. More power would be going into your car than your home. If you have several cars, just think about it. Oh and if the wind is not blowing there will be no electricity in the new green utopia!
Give it a few years… You will find that the Electric Cars have been designed “pre-clunkered”…
What many politicians are missing is that should entire neighborhoods adopt electric cars — then the wiring, transformers and switches will likely be show as inadequate. I know that in the Toronto Ontario area the system is operating on the margins of reliability. There is more than sufficient generation capacity for now — but insufficient delivery capacity. But that’s just what I see when I do the analysis stuff that seems to be beyond the politicos to understand and accept.
No use boosting electric cars if you can’t charge them…
Taxes how come nobody addresses taxes? Take away the gasoline taxes now compare costs between gas and electricity. When will taxes be applied to charging your car? The government will not let you travel on the roads for free for long. I suspect there is a critical mass for the amount of electric on the road then boom all the taxes will hit.
At a very rough guess 2 hours per day use of an electric vehicle will require around 45kwh per day electricity to replenish. So for every 1m electric cars you are going to have to supply approx 45gwh per day over current (sic) requirements. My quess is that the generating capacity will be easier to install than the means of power delivery.
All der Volk vil haf a Voltsvagen!
Cool, having an ecar to stroll across the neihbourhood a and a real one for your real life. Makes a lot of sense, eco-wise. Or not …?
Heh. With 87 sold an January, and only 67 sold in February, it appears that Nissan just can’t turn over a new Leaf.
>Girlfriend had a VW rabbit diesel… That got over 50 mpg. Hybrids with all their fancy
>“Green” technology would love to get those mpg’s. What gives?
My first car was a ’78 VW Rabbit. The engine made I think 48hp and a similar number for lb-ft torque. Top speed on the flats with no headwind was right at 60mph; if there was a headwind it was less, but even with a stiff tailwind it wouldn’t do much over 62mph. In its favor it got 52mpg in town and 56 on the highway. It was actually a pretty good little car for running around town, once you figured out how to get it moving without stalling out.
True story: My dad was driving it one day (I was a passenger) and we were pulled over for doing 65 in a 55. Pop argued claiming it simply wouldn’t go that fast, and the cop (who was surprised and intrigued by the thought that a car could actually be that bad) agreed to give it a try, and failed to hit the 65. Cop marked the ticket as radar error and sent us on our way.