Paul Krugman has caused quite a stir with his claims that the riots in Egypt are the result of:
global warming > causing bad weather > causing crop failure > causing increased food prices > causing riots.
It’s rather circular logic IMHO, and one that isn’t supportable by the data at hand.
First, there is a piece, Debunking Krugman: NYT’s “Soaring Food Prices – Blame the Weather”. The author, who is open to the possibility that global warming might be problem, shows that Krugman knows not of what he speaketh. As she says, “This is so far off base, Paul Krugman, I hardly know where to start.”
Andrew Bolt has a very good piece in which he reminds us that “food production is in fact at near-historic levels and the Egyptian regime actually keeps food prices pretty stable through massive subsidies.”
So food prices probably did not trigger the problems in Egypt. In fact, because of subsidies that keep bread prices constant at low levels, many poor folk are favorably inclined toward the current regime.
Also, on Pielke, Jr’s website, Richard Tol reminds us that IPCC reports tell us that for modest global warming (of the order of 1 to 3 degrees C, I believe) , global food prices may decline. And this is despite the fact that, as shown at WUWT, negative Socioeconomic Impacts of Global Warming are Systematically Overestimated, while positive impacts are underestimated. (This is in two parts; Part II is here).
Pielke Jr. has this graph on his website to speak to the issue:
Note the spike in prices 1972-1976. The food crisis in the 1970’s wasn’t driven by weather either.
During that 70s food crisis, many of the same arguments were made that are being made today:
“We’re running out of food! People in (enter random developing country name here) will starve! There’s unrest in the third world!”
Remember this? From Wiki:
Erlich’s The Population Bomb was a best-selling book written by Paul R. Ehrlich and his wife, Anne Ehrlich (who was uncredited), in 1968.[1] It warned of the mass starvation of humans in the 1970s and 1980s due to overpopulation, as well as other major societal upheavals, and advocated immediate action to limit population growth. Fears of a “population explosion” were widespread in the 1950s and 60s, but the book and its charismatic author brought the idea to an even wider audience.[2] [3] The book has been criticized in recent decades for its alarmist tone and inaccurate predictions.
Well we all know how those predictions turned out.
Thanks to Indur Goklany, who contributed to this article.
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@John Brookes:
Is it the (or your) government’s responsibility to put the spoon full of food into your mouth?
What caused food crises 300 yrs ago when 90% of the worlds population was employed in agricultural production?
What caused food crises 100 yrs ago when ~40% of the worlds population was employed in agricultural production?
If the price of food could be made absolutely free, keep in mind that the United States of America produces enough food for 6 billion people.
Just wait till the great monkey riots because the recent storm wiped out the banana crop in Australia.
John Brookes says:
February 8, 2011 at 4:36 am
I’m always slightly puzzled when Erlich’s predictions of mass starvation are derided. As far as I’m aware, around 30,000 people a day die of hunger.
Ehrlich predicted that most of the worlds population would be starving. while yes 30,000 a day is terrible it is not even close to what Ehrlich predicted.
“They’re rioting in Africa, there’s strife in Iran.
What nature doesn’t do to us, will be done by our fellow man.”
from The Merry Minuet, sung by The Kingston Trio
Sorta trivialises the Egyptian peoples’ struggles with traditional power structures and modernity, doesn’t it?
I suppose we should expect a green piece on how the Egyptian people’s protest should be quashed, lest they get what they want; higher living standards and a more consumption oriented lifestyle.
The laws of supply and demand in the free market make it impossible to run out of a commodity like corn. When governments commit to having a certain percent of ethanol in gasoline they have set up a framework where price is no object for buying the corn to fuel those refineries. When a market exists with a buyer who must take delivery of 1/3 of the entire corn crop, no matter what the price, of course the price rises. I might add that despite the fact that corn prices have more than doubled since the start of ethanol mandates and subsidies, politicians cannot bring themselves to suggest it is time these subsidies are cut or zeroed out.
The man who changed his mind – dug hard and deep and decided to say something.
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/01/28/egypt/
“I don’t know anything, have no expertise, haven’t even ever looked at the economic situation. Hence, no posting. If there comes a point when I have something to say, I will.”
AW wrote: ” global warming > causing bad weather > causing crop failure > causing increased food prices > causing riots.
It’s rather circular logic IMHO, and one that isn’t supportable by the data at hand.”
It is not a matter of opinion if the logic is circular. It is not. It is fair to question the strength of each causal claim, but it is a linear chain. I have no idea what “rather circular logic” is. A causal chain either has a closed loop in it or it does not.
Well…
The only way for the warmists to “forget” that they have used this argument is if the riots end up in the overthrow of Mubarak’s regime and the establishment of a democracy in Egypt. Then, since that will be perceived as a good thing, it cannot be possibly be due to global warming.
Because there are zero chances for them to recognize that something good can come as a result of this illusion they call anthropogenic global warming.
I do not believe that Krugman has ever once in his career written an article with any value. It is possible, but I am not aware of any. If I am wrong in this I will apologize, but the article would have to have some actual intrinsic value.
I dare someone to find something by him of value to prove me wrong.
“….but, was it Maurice Chevalier who, when asked if he liked growing old, replied that it was better than the alternative.”
He also sang “thank heaven for little girls” which went unremarked in the war weary yet naive and optimistic 1950’s.
Don’t think it would see the light of day in the vituperatively politically correct 21st century where paedophiles are feared to lurk around every corner.
In so many little ways, the joy of living and the gaiety of words is throttled in our left wing education system.
“global warming > causing bad weather > causing crop failure > causing increased food prices > causing riots” ???
On the implications: The first is supported but some evidence, but is not certain. Also no one I have seen has attempted to quantify it. Was the Russian wave 20% worse because of AGW or 70% worse or 30% more likely? However, the number of extreme events has been high, at it is plausible that we are seeing the impact of AGW although we likely won’t be confident of this in the statistical sense for quit a few years.
The second implication seems sound. The next is also sound, but there are other factors driving up basic food prices. These include increased demand from China and India, higher oil prices (not unrelated to the first), and increased use of biofuels (not unrelated to the second).
Finally, did this play a role in causing the riots? Many things caused the riots. While governments in the region cushion food prices they do so at a cost and part of that cost is the economic stagnation with high unemployment.
It is hard to quantify much of this. It is a judgement call if the strength of the implications is significant.
How to take Krugman’s piece? Obviously he has an agenda. He thinks AGW is real and we ignore it at our peril. Suppose Krugman was the fire marshal of a small town. He has been reading how, in theory, aging electrical systems can cause house fires. He knows that in his town there is a larger than average portion of the housing stock that is old. Then it happens. In one month there are three electrical fires in older homes. As fire marshal Krugman would be justified in issuing public notices urging people in older homes to get their electric wiring inspected because he thinks we may be seeing an increase in house fires because of old wiring just as experts have warned. He would not be justified in publishing a paper in the peer reviewed Fire Science Journal claiming that events in his town prove the concerns raised by the experts are correct.
If you see Krugman as playing fire marshal, then his column is reasonable – though there is plenty of room for debate. If you see him as playing scientist, then it is not.
Paul Krugman, the narcissistic ferret, who masquerades as an Economist.
Democratic Pollster Patrick Caddell summed up Krugman perfectly a couple of weeks ago on late-night TV. He called Krugman a “complete ass-hole” and the most despicable person he knew.
Such nonsense is Steig-ering.
The argument is based on the logic fallacy “appeal to authority,” his own!
I have said we”Are foolishly converting food to fuel!” over the years, but what do I know I’m just the son and grandson of old Eastern Oregon and Western Kansas Ranchers and Farmers. Back in the 1930’s the farmers were paid to destroy milk and meat. with people starving in the streets. My Paternal Grandfather , working the La Grande rail yard for Union Pacific, who told this story:’ There would be carloads of ” Condemned Meat” Bacon, Ham , whole sides of beef, in Reefer (refrigerator) cars.” This made Granpa so angry he’d leave some of those cars unlocked so the Men riding the rails could help themselves to a little high protein. This was a classic example of misguided Government Policy. Just as this Ethanol program is..
Obama’s chief science adviser is John Holdren, a cohort and co-author with Paul Ehrlich in the 1960s. Their miscalculations on the effects of overpopulation are legendary. It always amazes me that people like them (and Krugman) who get so much wrong and never really produce anything of value could be given so much acclaim.
Re John Brookes who wondered “Erlich’s predictions of mass starvation are derided. As far as I’m aware, around 30,000 people a day die of hunger.” Yes, people die each day from hunger. This is not from lack of sufficient food in the world. It is from the food not being where it is needed due lack of transportation, wars and poor planning interrupting distribution, etc. In the 1960s Ehrlich predicted that in the 1970s and 1980s hundreds of millions of people would starve to death in spite of any crash programs.
He and Holdren were gloriously wrong.
God bless Norman Borlaug, who actually did things rather than pontificate incorrectly about them and who actually deserved his Nobel.
Claude Harvey says:
February 8, 2011 at 12:12 am
Consider the possibility that food prices are escalating because we are burning food in our automobiles. Being unable to digest oil, myself, I have chosen to burn it to make the machinery go round-and-round. I recognize corn as precious food and avoid burning it in my car because I’ve heard half the world goes hungry each night. Call me old fashioned!
=======================================================
First one out and we have a winner!!!! Our food production is increasing, but because of this ludicrous ethanol scheme, demand is out running production. Go here to see production increases in the U.S. http://www.nass.usda.gov/Newsroom/2010/01_12_2010.asp then go here, http://www.ers.usda.gov/Briefing/Corn/2010baseline.htm for some eye popping data about our corn use and how many billions of bushels go towards ethanol production.(scroll down past half-way mark of the page) then, to finish, go here http://www.ers.usda.gov/data/feedgrains/Table.asp?t=01 . It is plainly obvious that our yields per acre have increased significantly, also, the planted acres of corn has increased at the expense of other food stuffs. But, we’re not using the corn for food, we’re using it to fuel our vehicles. Also, we can plainly see the pricing for foods have significantly increased since our adoption of our ethanol policies. Climate change isn’t causing a price rise in foods, fear of climate change is causing an increase in food pricing. Sorry, but Pielke Jr.’s graph is dated. For those that may whine about the table not showing all of the food stuffs, there is a reason for that but would beleaguer the point to go to a lengthy explanation, but feel free to check soybeans also. It seems the meat substitute is almost as expensive as a nice slab of beef. Anyone that thought using our food as gasoline to be a good idea either needs their head examined or their heart. We should stop it and stop it now.
Now, did this cause the unrest in Egypt? No.
Here is the cause of the food riots – POLITICS!
#1. 1995 VP of Cargill Dan Amstutz writes World Trade Organization Agreement on Ag. It got rid of tariffs and opened borders.
#2. Amstutz writes 1996 farm bill called Freedom to Farm (Freedom to Fail Act) that over produces very cheap grain. The law also change US grain reserve policy.
#3. Amstutz goes to work for Goldman Sachs.
#4. Gramm, head of the CFTC, helped firms such as Goldman Sachs gain influence over the commodity markets. At the end of 2006, food prices across the world started to rise, suddenly. Wheat had shot up by 80 per cent, maize by 90 per cent, rice by 320 per cent.
“Then, in spring 2008, prices just as mysteriously fell back to their previous level. Jean Ziegler, the UN Special Rapporteur on the Right to Food, calls it “a silent mass murder”, entirely due to “man-made actions.” Through the 1990s, Goldman Sachs and others lobbied hard and the regulations [controlling agricultural futures contracts] were abolished. Suddenly, these contracts were turned into “derivatives” that could be bought and sold among traders who had nothing to do with agriculture. A market in “food speculation” was born. The speculators drove the price through the roof.” http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/johann-hari/johann-hari-how-goldman-gambled-on-starvation-2016088.html
#5. In 2008 Monsanto and Cargill report record breaking profits. USDA reports “The cupboard is bare” we have no more grain reserves.
In 2010 : Fmr. President Clinton Apologizes for Trade Policies that Destroyed Haitian Rice Farming – “We Made a Devil’s Bargain”
“President Bill Clinton, now the UN Special Envoy to Haiti, publicly apologized last month for forcing Haiti to drop tariffs on imported, subsidized US rice during his time in office. The policy wiped out Haitian rice farming and seriously damaged Haiti’s ability to be self-sufficient.” http://www.democracynow.org/2010/4/1/clinton_rice
Sure looks like politics had a lot more to do with food prices.
Well, that is an interesting hypothesis. The rise of Islam, subjugating southern and eastern Christendom does sort of correspond to the beginning of the Medieval Climatic Optimum.
Taphonomic says: It always amazes me that people like them (and Krugman) who get so much wrong and never really produce anything of value could be given so much acclaim.
It is infuriating but we must always remember that those who shill this drek are not in the business of informing. They are sellers of advertising. Their essentail motivation is to gain attention. Our outrage is a byproduct of what we WISH the media was.
Human food is not being converted to fuel. In the heart of the region, 6% of -feed- corn is being converted to ethanol. This is EXCESS production that federal farm policies essentially force into being.
Human food production in the US has been reduced by the Federal government breaking contract with the Klamath Valley farmers and farmers in California’s Central Valley, turning those regions into deserts. THAT is where vegetables are grown. The -rice- that these starving regions of the world are relying on is grown in places like Indonesia and Australia. You might want to look at their weather and policies.
But what do I know? I grew up on an upper midwestern corn and soybeans farm. My father not only farmed, but provided technical and financial consultation for around 110 other farmers. Both he and my grandfather have bachelor’s of science from Iowa State, back when BSs meant something. There were I believe 20 in Iowa State’s graduating Ag class my grandfather was in, and he taught ag to college students in the G.I. Bill program. My information on this is reliable. I also live in wind farm country and am often infuriated with the ignorance demonstrated here about wind power (and by the ignorance of the more fanatical of its proponents as well. It has its place. It doesn’t wipe out birds, the wind nearly always blows sufficiently at the altitude and geographical location of these turbines)
Steve says:
February 8, 2011 at 8:44 am
Human food is not being converted to fuel. In the heart of the region, 6% of -feed- corn is being converted to ethanol.
========================================================
Sigh,….said the son of a corn farmer. Look at the information in the links I posted and get back to me. Its interesting. I listened to the same spiel from a corn farmer here in Kansas and even quoted me a study from Iowa University. The information made available from the USDA directly refutes the assertions.
Later you said, “I also live in wind farm country and am often infuriated with the ignorance demonstrated here about wind power (and by the ignorance of the more fanatical of its proponents as well. It has its place. It doesn’t wipe out birds, the wind nearly always blows sufficiently at the altitude and geographical location of these turbines)”
I’m also flabbergasted by the ignorance demonstrated here. Nearly always isn’t good enough. Recently, many across this country experienced a blizzard combined with sub-zero F temperatures. I was snowed in for two days. Had we been as reliant on wind as much of this country wishes us to be, many would have died. Fortunately, we’re not. Texas had to resort to rolling blackouts because of their reliance on wind. “Nearly always” should replace “reliable” for a greater cost?……..keep telling yourself that as you guys bank your lease checks.
Message to citizens: please ignore the money printing. The inflation exported worldwide by the US is not relevant to rising food prices.
“The public must therefore rely on the diligent reporting, clear thinking, and lucid writing of reporters determined to go beyond dueling bumper stickers and sound bites to help people understand what they need to make good decisions, both in their personal finances and at the polls. These are weighty responsibilities, and the journalists I know take them very seriously.”
– Ben Bernanke, speech to his propaganda team, Feb 3, 2011
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20110203a.htm
(Oh, I can’t wait for the day the Chinese call Bernanke’s bluff and stop trying to peg to the dollar)
Anthony Said,
Paul Krugman has caused quite a stir with his claims that the riots in Egypt are the result of:
global warming > causing bad weather > causing crop failure > causing increased food prices > causing riots.
Once again this straw man argument is repeated. Krugman never said that crop failures were caused by global warming. You are twisting what he said to make a straw man argument you can refute.
What he said was that the sort of extreme weather event crop failure responsible for the food price spike we are seeing now, will become more frequent in the future as a result of global warming. His argument is based on a frequency distribution.
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/02/08/gradual-trends-and-extreme-events/
What happens is that the right tail gets fatter: the probability, and hence the frequency, of extreme events goes up.
Also, Krugman is not inventing the story that the price of food is a problem for Egypts poor. This is not a new story. There was a previous food price spike which worried Mubarak in 2008, and protests against the price of food last October:
http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/news/protest-against-soaring-food-prices-erupts-ministers-council
“The protest is a reaction to the ridiculous jump in prices recently,” Qandil told Al-Masry Al-Youm.
Mohamed Awad, coordinator of the Popular Free Front, accused Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif of distancing himself from the problems of the poor.
“The PM has remained in hiding since the price hikes began,” said Awad. “And we haven’t seen any attempt by the government to rein in the unjustifiable increases in food prices.”
And prices of food in Egypt have been rising. All bread in Egypt is not subsidized. The subsidy system is not 100% effective.
http://ecocentric.blogs.time.com/2011/01/31/bread-is-life-food-and-protest-in-egypt/
Posted by Krista Mahr Monday, January 31, 2011 at 6:33 am
In the last few days, soaring food prices have been cited as one of the proverbial straws that led Egyptians to take to the streets in frustration over Murbarak’s 30-year rule. It wouldn’t be the first time that food has been a catalyst for social upheaval in the northern African nation.
….
It’s impossible to say what exactly the next few days will bring in Egypt, both for the protestors and for the government. It seems clear that the days of the administration of President Hosni Murbarak — at least in its present incarnation — are numbered, and tens of thousands of demonstrators on the streets of Egypt’s cities will very likely remain there until some epochal shift has come to pass.
Whoever ends up seeing the nation through to its next phase would do well to keep bread high on their list of priorities.
In the last few days, soaring food prices have been cited as one of the proverbial straws that led Egyptians to take to the streets in frustration over Murbarak’s 30-year rule. It wouldn’t be the first time that food has been a catalyst for social upheaval in the northern African nation. In 1977, what came to be known as the Egyptian Bread Riots broke out after the state ended its subsidies of basic food staples. Hundreds of thousands of poor Egyptians took to the streets; scores were killed and hundreds were injured. Thirty years later in 2007 and 2008, as food prices soared and food riots swept cities across the globe, panic over a disruption in the supply chain of flour and bread in Egypt again unfolded into deadly protests.
This year, food prices are also reaching worrying highs. Global wheat prices are at an all-time high, and other grains and meat prices were up over 20% by the end of 2010. Though some 40% of Egypt’s 80 million residents live in poverty, high food prices don’t have the same impact in Egypt that they might have in other vulnerable countries. The nation has a huge subsidy program that, when its working right, helps protect its poorest citizens from inflated food prices. Two years ago, when food prices were soaring and riots broke out, there technically was no food shortage, but the high prices of commodities – and bad management of the private and government supply chain – led to disruptions in the supply of subsidized grain, so many couldn’t afford to eat…..
Finally, it should be made clear that the general decline in wheat prices over the long term, in the Pielke’s graph is not because of better weather, but because of more mechanization, fertilizer, pesticides and better seeds over the past 60 years.
REPLY: Yeah, sure, whatever. The whole AGW meme these days is about this linkage to “extreme weather” since they haven’t found the warming they predicted, they’ve moved on to something they can point to and blame. Sorry, not buying your argument. The simple fact is that there is no increasing trend in extreme weather. It isn’t there for hurricanes, isn’t there for tornadoes, isn’t there for floods. There is however a trend in increased news reporting over the last 30 years, seeing and wailing about more things than ever before. So there’s a reporting trend, but not an event trend. But that’s inconvenient to your argument and to Krugman’s.
And yet you think you aren’t trying to dominate threads here? pfth.
And from his article, this is why Krugman deserves a good smack down (besides the fact that he’s wrong):
“The point is that the usual casual denier arguments — it’s cold outside; you can’t prove that climate change did it — miss the point. What you’re looking for is a pattern. And that pattern is obvious.”
The only pattern that’s obvious is one of hatred, with the matter of fact use of the term “denier” now seeping in to the MSM.
a week ago, Krugman said he knew nothing about Egypt. Now he’s an expert?
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2011/02/krugman_on_e.png
– Anthony
“guidoLaMoto says:
@ur momisugly February 8, 2011 at 4:53 am”
“Please note that the misguided corn-for-ethanol program only adds about $0.25/bu to the cost of corn (currently selling for ~$6.50/bu, up from $3.80/bu five months ago. Grain prices follow petroleum prices. Right now, about 1/3rd of the US corn crop goes to EtOH.”
Can you imagine what would happen to the commodity price of corn if this- 1/3 of the US corn crop- (or any item) where it is basically subsidized or mandated by government action, is eliminated and dumped into the existing marketplace for food not only for humans, but livestock? The “only $0.25” quoted is simply wishful thinking and an attempt at outrageous spin by those affected.
Misguided: correct, $0.25: fiction, Get real.