Australia braces for Cyclone Yasi as it hits Category 5

Reply to Ross Brisbane’s comments.
Cyclone Yasi has just passed my beach home just north of Townsville, and heading inland as it weakens. I have lived 70+ years in the North Queensland , and I have seen many severe cyclones as I worked all over this area. When I was a lad the informed senior locals used to judge a severe cyclone by the degree that the winds bent coconut trees nearly parallel to the beach. They had no satellite image to tell them how strong it was.
As Yasi moved towards the coast and before the BoM figures were released on the actual wind speeds in cities like Townsville and Cairns became available, I reflected on past years and I recalled lower wind speeds with cyclones that had large “eyes”.
I therefore questioned the forced evacuations, and the projected storm surge figures that were being projected by the government authorities as Yasi had a large “eye”..
As the forced evacuation only affected those people in the projected storm surge area, a lot of my family and friends choose to stay in their homes that since the 1970 period
have been largely bought up to the catagory 3 standard and their buildings are all O.K…
It will be interesting to see a report by JCU’s building strength team on the cyclones impact on dwellings in the cyclones area of influence. It is a fact that all cyclones are frightening events to live through, but the theory that AGW has caused much stronger cyclones that some political people chose to pronounce is false in my view. Science must be proven to be acceptable to me, and AGW science on the CO2 influence is far from proven.

graham g
You said:
Science must be proven to be acceptable to me, and AGW science on the CO2 influence is far from proven.
I say:
Well I tell you as fact as I have looked into projections over the next process of temperatures going higher. Based on quantum calculations of the greenhouse effect which is an established law of physics in science it is solid science. There will indeed be even stronger Cyclones as we glimpse into the long sighted looking glass in a warmer global climate. I have seen the models based on a 1 degree Celsius projection and cyclonic aberrations will indeed intensify. They will get very frightening by 2050.
The science papers are out there for anyone to check. No I am not referring to the IPCC or Gore presentation stuff. Many of these papers are not even in the 2007 IPCC reports. Science has made quantum leaps in what know about climate now. The knowledge and objective measurements of such events far exceed the knowledge we had even 10 years ago. They are more accurate and lift the mystery from these events. It is not then a wild off the cap idea of the cliché verbal it is climate change – no. It’s really making a statement that a warmer planet predisposes these Cyclones to develop much larger then they may have been.
I also consider the fact you did not evacuate you are lucky that it did not swing right in your path – we know about the girth of its eye but you were indeed playing with fire based on your own knowledge. I personally would not have done that. More over the precautionary principle would have cut in for me. Not based on some notion of political disagreement to prove some satisfactory point. Rather I would look at my wife and my children in the eye and do the best thing for their safety.
Why is it the older folk think they have better survival skills and better judgments. I recall as a very young child the great rains of the late 50s in QLD – I do not recall my father ever alluding to 75% of the State in a state of flooding all at the SAME time. I knew that cyclones were on the way. In fact I said to a few in 2007 there would be so much water in the dams that a Brisbane flood would eventuate. I made those statements based on few trends – a globally warming earth and the switch to a very strong La Nina event. Now I was also influenced by what I read in those models that showed this an inescapable event.
We live in dynamic changes. God bless.

“”””” Ross Brisbane says:
February 2, 2011 at 6:08 pm
Smokey,
I can answer your objection but on terms of what caused the warming.
…………………………………….
So what do we have – CO2 did not cause directly the storms and it does not work that way.
What CO2 does is create the mechanism and first cause to warming “drift” in climate – its called nudging. The rest is how water vapor/clouds/oceans RESPOND – climate sensitivity. “””””
Ross, have you ever considered just how untenable that position is ?
So CO2 ‘starts the ball rolling’ by just giving the climate a nudge (off top dead center I presume) and then H2O takes over.
Last time I checked, Water vapor, Clouds, and oceans, were ALL mostly H2O, not CO2.
The only energy transport mechanism, active in the earth climatic environment, that in any way involves CO2, is the LWIR Radiant emissions from earth surface/oceans/atmosphere captured by CO2 in what is called the “Greenhouse effect” except we know green houses don’t really work that way.
No other energy transport process, such as upward atmospheric convection for example, involves CO2 or any other non-condensing GHG.
So the whole thing was in a nice stable “equilibrium” until MAN came, and introduced some CO2 to the atmosphere ??
Just where abouts in our climate history did that “nudge” occur. Was it at 315 ppm in 1957, or was it earlier than that; was it when we crossed the 280 ppm Sacred value that should never be exceeded.
Since the effect of CO2 is logarithmic (so the established science concensus says), their would have been a 3.0 deg C Temperature “nudge” given by CO2 going from 140 ppm to 280 ppm; did that wake up the H2O monster ?
Those of you in that camp, seem to freely admit, that it is the H2O in vapor and cloud form (oceans too) that really does the climate damage; CO2 is just the wimp that gives the water a nudge; but it is the water that is the 800 pound gorilla that sends Temperatures sky rocketing, and storms hitting new records.
That is such a silly idea; you should be ashamed to offer that as an explanation. If water is such a powerful feedback that amplifies the miniscule CO2 effect, it would seem that just leaving the garden hose on for a few minutes would be enough of a nudge to cause the runaway effect that CO2 is charged with creating.
Water by itself, without any nudging, is perfectly capable of running the whole show itself; it doesn’t need any nudging from CO2 of Ozone, or Methane; or even from accidently released dental laughing gas.
For a start; the system isn’t even vaguely in equilibrium anyway. We can have a total global Temperature spread on any summer day (north) of as much as 150 deg C; and everything in that range may be present somewhere on earth.
Surely in at least one of those places, the local H2O should feel like taking charge, and amplifying the effect ow whatever the local CO2 happens to be.
This morning, the Temperature was right around zero (deg C), and my breath deposited a thin ice slick on my windshield. There was not a sign of any dew, nor a cloud in the sky, a complete hemisphere of cloudless emptiness, and clear air. Temperatures yesterday were low 70s (degF), around 22 degC yet this morning it was zero. And this was in industrial silicon Valley; nobody has CO2, if we don’t.
CO2 didn’t do a damned thing about nudging the Temeprature off top dead center.
Water in any form, in any place in the atmosphere, anywhere on earth, ALWAYS reduces the total amount of solar energy that can and does reach the earth surface (and oceans); every single additional H2O molecule in the air, further reduces that collected solar energy; no matter what. Evn CO2, because of its near IR absorption bands, also acts to reduce the amount of solar energy that the earth collects. Ozone in the upper atmosphere also reduces ground level solar energy; anywhere on earth that it occurs.
That is incontrovertible, and also irrefutable, experimental fact. It is not the output of some Teraputer video game run.
CO2 can’t do diddley about keeping the earth warm in the absence of H2O at reasonable levels in the atmosphere; and anyone who has ever spent a night in an alpine desert knows that too well. And I doubt that there is any place in the atmosphere where weather/climate occurs, where CO2 is ever in excess of the local H2O abundance.
So much for givng things a nudge.

Patrick Davis,
There are trends emerging for QLD’s temperatures that indicate the most powerful La Nina on record and the greatest cover cloud QLD has ever experienced over December/January IS NOT dampening temperatures. The ENSO factored in appears to have only compensated by much less a half a degree Celsius on the average to averaging since 1950.
Dr Roy Spencer is wrong to assert cloud formations are negative feedbacks as they are far too temporal on the temperatures and are caused by net gained energy inputs anyway. The radiative factoring of global warming seems to reaching a new level of what was global minimums. you should also realise despite the most powerful La Nina ever experienced we are certainly not sufficient impacts to prove variability. These within careful reading of BOM summaries of temperatures is subtle signal of global warming over arching the temperatures. I see it and but you cannot – well aren’t that interesting. The same goes fro our counterparts freezing in the North – you should not read much into snow and ice falls. All it positively points is that somehow a warming mechanism is driving extra extraordinary water vapor into the upper atmosphere. This extra energy does not come from somewhere out of the mother nature’s variability make believe energy creation. The snow storms emanate from higher energy INPUTS in the first place! As goes QLD the freezing are not a sign of global cooling – they are effects of extreme inputs “seeking” climate equilibration.
Another blow to clouds being negative feedback is that the energy that would have lost to space is stored in the water turning to water vapor of condensation. When rain falls the air temperatures cool but the ground actually heat up in cycle.
So the greenhouse effect of CO2 is actually amplified by clouds and water vapor rising into atmosphere. The feedbacks are often ignored in calculating the nudge factor of CO2 is which a weak nudge to a warmer not cooler planet.
Here is in part a QLD BOM summary:
Maximum temperature
The state-averaged mean maximum temperature for January was 34.46 °C, compared with the long-term average of 34.80 °C.
Daily maximum temperatures were 6 to 8 °C above the January average over the southern Channel Country, Maranoa and Warrego and far southwestern Darling Downs on the 25th in the northwesterly airflow ahead of a slow-moving trough over South Australia. On the 26th, daily maximum temperatures reached 8 to 10 °C above the January average over large parts of the Maranoa and Warrego and southern Channel Country and over the far southwestern Darling Downs and Granite Belt as the trough approached the southwest Queensland border. A small area near the Queensland border was even more than 10 oC above average. On the 27th, daily maximum temperatures were 8 to 10 °C above the January average over large parts of the Channel Country and Maranoa and Warrego. Daily maximum temperatures were 8 to 10 °C above the January average over small parts of the far southwest Channel Country and Maranoa and Warrego on the 28th.
The highest daily maximum temperatures recorded in Queensland during January occurred on the 27th and 28th, with 47.4 °C at Birdsville Airport and 47.0 °C at Bedourie Police Station on the 27th, followed by 46.1 °C at Birdsville Airport on the 28th. Daily maximum temperatures were 4 to 6 °C above average over large parts of the west of the state on the 29th.
The warmest days on average occurred at Bedourie Police Station with 40.7 °C, followed by Birdsville Airport with 40.6 °C, followed by Urandangi with 39.4 °C.
The coolest days on average were at Applethorpe with 25.5 °C, followed by Maleny Tamarind St with 25.6 °C, followed by Toowoomba Airport with 26.0 °C.
The lowest daily maximum temperatures recorded in Queensland during January were on the 6th, with 18.2 °C at Applethorpe, followed by 19.0 °C at Stanthorpe Leslie Parade, followed by 19.4 °C at Toowoomba Airport.
Some sites had their lowest January mean daily maximum temperature for at least 20 years. See a map of mean maximum temperatures. See a map of maximum temperature anomalies.
Minimum temperature
The state-averaged mean minimum temperature for January was equal to the long-term average of 22.67 °C. Daily minimum temperatures were 6 to 8 °C above the January average over the far southwestern Channel Country on the 25th in the northwesterly airflow ahead of a trough over South Australia, spreading to a large part of the southern Channel Country and a small part of the far southern Darling Downs and Granite Belt on the 26th as the trough approached the southwest Queensland border. This area extended northeast on the 27th and daily minimum temperatures were up to more than 8 oC above average over far southern border regions. On the 28th daily minimum temperatures were 6 to 8 oC above average over the far western Channel Country and parts of far southern interior and more than 8 oC above average over the far southwest. They were more than 6 oC above average over the far southwest on the 29th and 30th.
The coldest night was at Applethorpe with 12.1 °C on the 24th, followed by Stanthorpe Leslie Parade with 12.9 °C on the 24th, followed by Applethorpe with 13.0 °C on the 15th.
The coolest nights on average were at Applethorpe with 15.7 °C, followed by Stanthorpe Leslie Parade with 16.2 °C, followed by Warwick with 17.3 °C.
The warmest nights on average were at Birdsville Airport with 26.9 °C, followed by Sweers Island with 26.4 °C, followed by Mornington Island with 26.0 °C.
The highest daily minimum temperatures recorded in January were 31.8 °C at Thargomindah Airport and 31.5 °C at Birdsville Airport on the 28th, followed by 30.8 °C at Birdsville Airport on the 8th. Some sites had their lowest January mean daily minimum temperature for at least 20 years. See a map of mean minimum temperatures. See a map of minimum temperature anomalies.
Wind
The strongest wind gust was at Hamilton Island Airport with 128 km/h on the 30th, associated with TC Anthony, followed by Mackay M.O with 111 km/h on the 7th, followed by Double Island Point Lighthouse with 102 km/h on the 9th, followed by University of Queensland Gatton with 102 km/h on the 12th.
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You should carefully read the BOM summary. You will find I have not been misleading. You cannot just use REGIONAL minimums as these are not sustained – clouds are temporal and only provide very short relief from the relentless very slow climb in global temperatures.
The snow USA has been experiencing I predict is a temporal shift caused by built up flux energy in the form of massive water vapor free in the upper atmosphere causing a massive clash to condensation in cooler fronts and falling as massive record breaking snows. It points to a climate on the move and not static because extra energy is being quantum-ed into the global system.
America I predict will experience the worst heat waves this coming Summer in their history. The Arctic ice will be a rapid melt back and the tipping point for this region may strike within 5 to 10 years.
I know I write simply but behind all this is a reading of copious material, data and studies on climate at the empirical and historical levels.