From the USGS here, I thought their mission was the United States, hence the US in USGS. Seems they’ve expanded the mission to Africa now. Disappointingly, there’s no mention of land use change, agricultural practices, or deforestation issues like the one contributing to the glacier melt on Kilimanjaro. Evapotranspiration is a very important issue for local moisture content and convective cloud development.
More Frequent Drought Likely in Eastern Africa
The increased frequency of drought observed in eastern Africa over the last 20 years is likely to continue as long as global temperatures continue to rise, according to new research published in Climate Dynamics.
This poses increased risk to the estimated 17.5 million people in the Greater Horn of Africa who currently face potential food shortages.
Scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey and the University of California, Santa Barbara, determined that warming of the Indian Ocean, which causes decreased rainfall in eastern Africa, is linked to global warming. These new projections of continued drought contradict previous scenarios by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicting increased rainfall in eastern Africa.
This new research supports efforts by the USGS and the U.S. Agency for International Development to identify areas of potential drought and famine in order to target food aid and help inform agricultural development, environmental conservation, and water resources planning.
“Global temperatures are predicted to continue increasing, and we anticipate that average precipitation totals in Kenya and Ethiopia will continue decreasing or remain below the historical average,” said USGS scientist Chris Funk. “The decreased rainfall in eastern Africa is most pronounced in the March to June season, when substantial rainfall usually occurs. Although drought is one reason for food shortages, it is exacerbated by stagnating agricultural development and continued population growth.”
As the globe has warmed over the last century, the Indian Ocean has warmed especially fast. The resulting warmer air and increased humidity over the Indian Ocean produce more frequent rainfall in that region. The air then rises, loses its moisture during rainfall, and then flows westward and descends over Africa, causing drought conditions in Ethiopia and Kenya.
“Forecasting precipitation variability from year to year is very difficult, and research on the links between global change and precipitation in specific regions is ongoing so that more accurate projections of future precipitation can be developed,” said University of California, Santa Barbara, scientist Park Williams. “It is also important to note that while sea-surface temperatures are expected to continue to increase in the Indian Ocean and cause an average decrease in rainfall in eastern Africa, there will still occasionally be very wet years because there are many factors that influence precipitation.”
Scientists compiled existing datasets on temperature, wind speed and precipitation to see what was driving climate variations in the tropical Indian and Pacific Ocean region. Most of the Indian Ocean warming is linked to human activities, particularly greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions. The Indian Ocean has warmed especially fast because it is quickly being encroached upon by the Tropical Warm Pool, which is an area with the warmest ocean surface temperatures of anywhere on earth.
This research supports efforts by the USGS and the U.S. Agency for International Development through the Famine Early Warning Systems Network. FEWS NET is a decision support system that helps target more than two billion dollars of food aid to more than 40 countries each year. Through this system, scientists are helping with early identification of agricultural drought that might trigger food insecurity. For more information, visit http://www.fews.net.
The article, “A westward extension of the warm pool intensifies the walker circulation, drying eastern Africa,” was published in Climate Dynamics and can be found at http://www.springerlink.com/content/u0352236x6n868n2/.
Keith Battye says:
January 29, 2011 at 3:01 am
Rainfall here in Zimbabwe hasn’t changed much in the last 100 years , nor has the cropping cycle. What has changed here is the type of agricultural activity. We used to do things in a modern fashion whereas nowadays we do it in a medieval style of largely subsistence farming.
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I hope you see this Kenith. I completely agree with your assessment.
Based on my reading, about seventy per cent of Africa’s population rely on rain-fed agriculture for their livelihoods. IPCC concluded in 2001 that many rain-fed crops in Africa are near their maximum temperature tolerance, so yields are likely to fall sharply for even small climate changes; falls in agricultural productivity of up to 30% over the 21st century are projected.
Q: genetic heat and drought resistant hybrids for common Africa crops like Maize should be / have been developed?
Its reasonable to conclude, regardless of slightly rising temperature, ENSO events will continue to cycle; see my prior post.
Drought-tolerant maize gets US debut http://www.nature.com/news/2011/110111/full/469144a.html
“When the planting season arrives later this year, farmers in the United States will have a new way to safeguard their crops from drought. Last week, DuPont subsidiary Pioneer Hi-Bred International, headquartered in Johnston, Iowa, announced plans to release a series of hybrid maize (corn) strains that can flourish with less water. The seeds will compete with another maize strain unveiled last July by Swiss agribusiness Syngenta. Both companies used conventional breeding rather than genetic engineering to produce their seeds.”
Desalination plants for Kenya lakes and tapping the aquifers in the Congo are logical. Drought-tolerant strains of common crops is a must in my opinion.
I’d really like to see some intelligent support for Africa instead of crisis aid but the probability it will come from the USGS is zero.
John from CA says:
Your comment is awaiting moderation.
January 29, 2011 at 12:34 pm
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If you’re like me, you’re scratching your head and wondering why money is being wasted on the Climate meme and not put to the purpose of fixing real problems.
So the IPCC concludes in 2001 and it takes 10 years before someone addresses the real problem (heat and drought resistant hybrids for common Africa crops). The UN is pitiful.
“IPCC concluded in 2001 that many rain-fed crops in Africa are near their maximum temperature tolerance, so yields are likely to fall sharply for even small climate changes; falls in agricultural productivity of up to 30% over the 21st century are projected.”
Anthony says
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Disappointingly, there’s no mention of land use change, agricultural practices, or deforestation issues like the one contributing to the glacier melt on Kilimanjaro. Evapotranspiration is a very important issue for local moisture content and convective cloud development.
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The research concludes that the source of African moisture will be reduced. So it appears these additional factors will make things even worse.
The paleoclimate record indicates that exactly the opposite of drying out will happen. 6000 years ago even the Sahara was a well watered area and temps were well above today’s levels.
Johanna says: “Please define ‘imbalance of CO2′, first generally, and then in terms of the history of this planet.”
Thats not in question is it. CO2 had been fairly steady for 10,000 years and then in the late 1800 (when we started to seriously burn fossil fuels) it started to shoot up. It went from about 280ppm to 389.69 for december 2010.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/#global
So from a stable state, where the planet could naturally absorb all the naturally occurring co2 to a period where the level is steadily rising in our atmosphere, coinciding with our burning of co2, demonstrating quite convincingly I would think that the earth cannot absorb the co2 being produced. Hence imbalance.
I don’t know where the ‘hoops of steel’ come into it, but I thought I had already linked it to temperature, with the greenhouse effect.
Tread carefully.
Similar prophesies were made about Australia needing to get used to continual drought and lower rainfalls. These led, in part, to the lack of preparedness and response to the recent floods.
Like an earlier poster, Bob Highland, I think they need to avail themselves of the knowledge that has already been accumulated on the Indian Ocean Dipole.
Then to hopefully grasp a glimpse of the big picture, they need to study the rainfall patterns in all the areas that border the Indian Ocean, as what may be happening on one side of the ocean is reflected in what is happening on the other side.
The IOD is such that when it brings drought to those locations on the western side, it is bringing rain to the eastern regions, and vice versa.
More proof that “climate science” is an oxymoron.