From the truth is waaaayyy stranger than fiction department, we all remember this parody graph of global warming:
As many know, this week at the AMS convention is Seattle, a lot of new papers are being presented. One, from James Hansen is the subject of this story in the Seattle Times.
Note: not THAT James Hansen, but somebody with the same name. I’m sure he gets mistaken for the famous climate modeler James Hansen all the time.
As 3,500 meteorologists meet, one man’s forecast: Chance of pirates
By Sandi Doughton Seattle Times science reporter
Of the 3,500 scientists attending the American Meteorological Society meeting in Seattle this week, only one had a good reason to say: “Arrrrgh.”
While his colleagues swapped probabilistic equations, James Hansen came to talk about pirates.
Hansen rolled out some math of his own Monday as he explained his work to estimate the likelihood of attacks off the Horn of Africa and other hot spots, using weather data and an understanding of pirate behavior.
“Usually, I’m doing theoretical stuff down in the weeds,” said Hansen, a Seattle-area native and applied mathematician at the Naval Research Laboratory in Monterey, Calif. “This is the only project where I can actually show pictures of the impact,” he said, projecting images of Somali boatmen armed with missile-launchers and automatic weapons.
Though news coverage of pirate attacks has waned, the problem has worsened, Hansen said. Last year, there were nearly 450 attacks, with 53 ships captured and 1,181 crew members taken hostage. The estimated economic impact of the raids is $10 billion a year.
Even knowing the general location of pirate bases and their favored target areas, it’s challenging for Navy and other patrol vessels to be in the right place at the right time, Hansen said.
“The Indian Ocean is really big.”
…
The project combines data on wind, waves and currents with intelligence gathered by informants, surveillance and other means on pirate habits: how far their small skiffs can travel; their assault tactics; the timing of forays.
Running the model yields maps that show the highest-risk areas. Adding real-time information on ship traffic can identify possible pirate targets.
“It’s sort of like tornado warnings,” Hansen said. Everyone may know the probability of tornadoes spikes during the spring in Oklahoma. But what residents want to know is whether a twister is likely headed their way today.
Full story here
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Arrghcasting is the new modeling challenge. On the plus side, this may actually be something useful.
h/t to WUWT reader Cris Streetzel
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I feel bad for all of the normal, rational guys out there in the World who are named James Hansen.
For those wanting some adventure, there is the Somali Pirate Cruise.
Exactly… this graph is like 2 million years old…
well, maybe 6 years old, or ten, tops.
We can’t use global cooling to get rid of pirates, that would cause NINJA’s cause they are cooler…..
Seriously has it occured that perhaps certian pirates are getting better at their job skills (hyjacking ships and navigation) and that as long as they keep getting $$$$ they will continue to grow their ‘business’. As the Gray Monk pointed out the Royal navy took care of this by hanging. A simlar tactic today might discourage such undesirable activity.
See Youtube for videos of how the Russians deal with pirates. Their Special Forces arrested 17 who had boarded a Russian ship. Now there are 17 fewer pirates and one less pirate ship and no Russian ships have been attacked since.
HE’S RIGHT!
Avast! Gaze ye upon this plundered booty from all collective knowledge!
http://ngrams.googlelabs.com/graph?content=climate+change%2Cpirates&year_start=1900&year_end=2008&corpus=0&smoothing=3
“It’s sort of like tornado warnings,” Hansen said. Everyone may know the probability of tornadoes spikes during the spring in Oklahoma. But what residents want to know is whether a twister is likely headed their way today.”
If only it had been THE James Hansen saying the above. It neatly illustrates the difference between weather and climate. Climate is an averaging of weather records. We aren’t seeing climate change. Our children won’t see climate change. Their children won’t either. Our perspective makes everything look like natural variability and weather, and it is weather which we adapt to and prepare for.
But back on topic…
What happens if the pirates get their own plundering forecasts? If the pirate forecasts lead to ships avoiding areas in certain conditions the pirates will cotton on pretty quick. The pirates then have their plundering forecasts to second guess the likely route of booty. Which in turn leads to a second iteration of pirate forecast taking into account the knowledge that the pirates have their own forecast. And on and on. Presumably to the point where the pirates have pinched a supercomputer from the Met Office and are badly let down when it keeps printing wrong forecasts. To save face the pirates will insist they had actually forecast correctly but didn’t tell anyone when they had in fact forecast every eventuality to different audiences.
Meanwhile the crews of the ships will have been so overwhelmed with forecasts that they just revert to what they should be doing in the first place – being vigilant and being wary of approaching wessels.
I see the theory is gaining traction. I first saw the theory of the Piratal relationship with AGW proposed by someone on Joeuser about 4 years ago. his graphs were pretty and appeared to be statistically significant.
So this Jim Hensen has now followed up on his work! Well Done.
Roy says: “I wonder if the correlation could be used the other way? Could data on pirate activities in previous centuries be used to work out what the climate was like then?
Shiver my timbers, I think I have discovered a new proxy!”
I much prefer bat poop laminae in caves. High temperatures, more insects, more bat poop. Just as good as dendroclimatology. Maybe better.
I thought there was a strong correlation between the number of pirate attacks and CO2! It was inverse for a while in the 2oth century but when that industrial strength CO2 kicked in, pirates really responded on cue returning to duty.
Can someone clever give us an R squared on pirate attacks and CO2 since 1975?
Remember that pirating is not just of ships, eh? Just because some pirates are modern does not make them any less a pirate. There are quite a number on the mainland in Asia…
Perhaps those living in tornado prone areas should construct their homes with bricks instead of straw . . . and have a tornado hardened structure at hand . . . nah, that would be far to practical approach . . . and might not look pretty.
The most ludicrous part is that this guy, as the other Hansen guy, gets paid with taxpayer money . . . and more than likely had his total lack of a “scientific” education paid for by taxpayer money at great expense.
Keelhauling would improve his behavior, I would suggest. If not, string him up by the yardarm.
Unfortunately, piracy is rife today as it was yesteryear, so the date is indeed 21st January.
A quick precis of what is going on is listed below, from a Nautilus UK (seafarers’ union) Bulletin…
“Almost every day seafarers are being kidnapped and exposed to an increasing risk of injury or even death.
Every day seafarers transport the world’s goods through areas where the risk of pirate attack is increasing.
Every day seafarers’ families are suffering worry and uncertainty.
Every day the chances of attracting people to jobs at sea – on which all our economies rely – are shrinking.
Every day shipping companies and their insurers have to pay for increasing anti-piracy measures, extra fuel and ransoms – costs that are eventually passed on to the consumer.
Every day the risk of a major ecological disaster due to an oil spill caused by piracy increases.
Every day the chances of a recovery in the world economy are being jeopardised by this threat to world trade.”
It is only cruise ships that hit the news when attacked by pirates, partly because it attracts media attention with the many hundreds of people on board, whereas a cargo ship, usually loaded with a huge variety of valuable goods may have less than twenty.
Jimbo says:
January 26, 2011 at 1:59 am
Global Warming Claimed to Increase Asteroid Risk
Ok, you do realize that the site is an eco-“Onion”. All their stories have tongue very firmly planted in cheek. Good site though, very funny.
LarryD – Nothing that a few “Letters of Marque” couldn’t cover nicely (Madison et.all., 1787). I don’t see economic improvement untill the local authorities stop looting aid shipments and stop protecting pirates &c.
Can we ‘back cast’ the venganza.org graph (vide supra) to determine the current global temperature? We need to get a census of the pirates. Oh yeah – that would be bad for my health…
Tom
Oh it’s global warming that causes pirates. I guess the opportunity to extort $10 billion had nothing to do with it.
Arrrr, Jim lad, ‘twern’t done this way when I were a young ‘un!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/piracy/8274541/South-Korean-commando-raid-kills-eight-Somali-pirates.html
FYI, The US is one of the few developed counties that hasn’t forsworn Letters of Marque and Reprisal. But for the US to issue one is literally an Act of Congress.
According to this site, Spain in 1729 did issue Letter(s) of Marque against pirates. The last time Congress issued Letters of Marque was during the War of 1812.
Folks, I know that from your comfortable laboratories/homes/offices, this seems quite a joke, but it isn’t.
Several seafarers have been killed – mostly by ‘rescue missions’.
As noted, nearly 2000 seafarers were taken hostage last year, typically spending months in captivity, with no certainty of release . . . . ..
Estimated cost of piracy – for 2010 – was 7-12 thousand million dollars [US]. Shipping accounts are usually in dollars US.
Those dollars will appear on your [our] supermarket and gas staion [garage] bills.
Have you ever tried hitting a pirate skiff with a fire hose, let alone a torpedo or a bazooka? They’re a damn sight more manouuvrable than a merchant ship – which may carry 19 to perhaps 32 seafarers [excluding cruise ships]. Many of those are on $3-7 an hour [with food thrown in]. Vigilance for three days is difficult, especially if nothing has happened for your last three – or six, or whatever . . . . – transits of the danger area.
Complancency rules – or might.
Oh, and having a warship anywhere near – say within a day’s run, about 500 nautical miles, or 570 land {statute] miles – the latest attack [outside the Gulf of Aden, which is reasonably well covered] is like having a squad car near a ram-raiding or car jacking – when you have precisely thirty-one cars to cover the Lower 48 of the USA (or one car, sixteen hours a day to cover the entire UK; England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales [the Channel Islands, and the Isle of Man get visted for an hour each, twice a year].
Your fast rsponse is – where, precisely?
Do think carefully about that, please.
The cause of piracy – dunno.
But it is mostly ashore.
Somalia has had no government to call the name for almost twenty years. No stupid regulations on ‘Artificial Optical Radiation’ is a plus, but – allegedly – allowing foreigners to pillage your fishing grounds – so fishermen are suscepitble to warlords’ pleas [with iron fist] to – ah – ‘permit’ piracy may be a down.
Piracy is complex.
Piracy is a ‘good business model’. Sorry – for the ‘Mister Big’ personages, that is a fact.
These we know.
We do not really know the terror -and the fear fatigue – caused by a successful pirate hijacking.
As a ship operator, by the way, I w i l l pay the ransom. Where will I get my next crew if I didn’t?
Think – please . . . .
Will your government resort to the Press-gang to man my ships?
[That is a rhetorical question. Of course.]
Give the folks in shipping a chance to put their side of this – nasty – situation, please.
And thank your gods that none of your relatives is sailing in the Somali basin or the Gulf of Aden tonight.
Cheers.
Actually, the pirates are quietly tapping away on
forms for even more studies and grants to “prove”
global warming (or it’s variant namesakes) exists,
is dangerous, and can be overcome or reversed
if such-and-such program or process is implemented
using public funding.
The hearty tars on the Pinafore just won’t give up
the ship.
Well, at least this prediction seems plausible…
This graph is one of the icons of the church of the Flying Spaghetti Monster.
http://www.venganza.org/posters/
Has been from the start. Including the really cool x-axis ordering.
May you be touched by His noodly appendage.
This is probably one of the best ideas I have seen in a long time. Most of those oceanographic and atmospheric modes are not worth a pinch of coon shit except for a fairly restricted period of time. We know behavioral models work rather well, again on the short term. Makes sense to me. I think this Dr. Hansen deserves some credit for imaginative thinking unlike the creative stuff for that other fellow.
Sure. One more chart without error bars. What are they trying to hide?
Just wondering if he’s also a Pastafarian….