Walls of water 10ft high in a month-long mega hurricane: California told to prepare for biblical ‘ARkStorm’
By Daniel Bates
Last updated at 4:17 AM on 17th January 2011
Scientists are now warning Californians that the long-awaited ‘big one’ earthquake could be the least of their environmental concerns.
Another more deadly threat awaits the West coast of America – in the form of a biblical ‘ARkStorm’, which could bring death and destruction on a scale never before seen.
Walls of water 10ft high, rain falling in feet instead of inches, and nine million people’s homes flooded during a hurricane-like megastorm that could last more than month.
Just the beginning: A truck and a house are buried waist level in mud after the torrential rains that soaked California in December. Scientists are warning of an even greater storm, the ARkStorm, which they say is long overdue
The every-other-century event last happened in 1861 and left the central valley of California impassable.
The cost was impossible to quantify – but should a similar event happen today the damage could total more than $300billion.
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OK, take a deep breath, and prepare yourself for this:
The attached comments on YouTube says:
In 2008, the USGS Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) brought together over 300 experts to create ShakeOut the most comprehensive earthquake scenario and the largest earthquake drill ever. Over 5 million people participated in the event.
The MHDP is now preparing for its next major public project, “ARkStorm,” a scenario to address massive West Coast storms analogous to those that severely impacted California in 1861/62. Once again, the MHDP is working with DesignMatters at the Art Center College of Design and Theo Alexopolous, Tina Chiang, and Sean Starkweather at SDF-1 to communicate the science behind the effort.
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Here’s some evidence of the magnitude of that flood in 1862:
And the research citing that graph is here
Certainly, this could happen again. Certainly, as we’ve seen with the floods in Australia and Brazil it will be blamed on “global warming”. But, the weather history will show otherwise.
I’m not sure what, if any, mitigation infrastructure or planning would help in an event of this magnitude, but trying to scare the crap out of people with Hollywood style CGI isn’t going to help in my opinion, because it looks just like another sci fi movie.
h/t to WUWT reader Rational Debate and Chris Lydon
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Some people on this thread have missed that this sort of large-scale rainfall has occurred in the past. It is not a question of whether this will happen again, but when. With or without global warming. It’s a legitimate question to ask how changes in flood management will impact this… if you have this sort of once in a century scenario, will all of the dams even withstand this sort of deluge?
It’s probably not the overall impact of the rain that is the biggest worry, its mudslides on hillsides where people have built homes and on potentially catastrophic dam failure (think Johnstown Flood).
Whether there are people chirping “AGW” from the side-lines is irrelevant. Not planning for and addressing this contingency would inevitably lead to massive loss of life, not to mention the huge economic impact it would have on the affected regions.
Another point – 300,000 cfs is just 8500 m3/s. The inflow design flood for Hoover dam is 32 000 m3/s.
Nobody – least of all AGW skeptics – should comment on “things they know f…. all about”
We should all get behind this and say, “Yes, it will happen one day, just like any other major. natural catastrophe, and nothing Man is doing will change it one way or another. We will one day be hit by an astroid, or subjected to the radiation of a huge solar flare, as well. That’s the world we live in.”
While damage to California from the storm may be huge, it would pale in comparison to the damage done if supporters of AGW theory successfully blamed CO2, and enacted onerous cap-and-trade legislation.
It’s sad. I can remember when the USGS did some of the finest geology and hydrolgy in the world and now they are reduced to prognosticating and pontificating using computer models, and dialing for dollars by using scare tactics of the precautionary principle and this-may-happen scenarios.
It seems like the whole report can be summed up as: “S#!t happens. Sometimes mega-s#!t happens. We better get ready for it. Let’s study it somemore.”
There are massive debris fields below every mountain range in southern california. The size of the stones is mostly in the 2 inch to 12 inch size range. That suggests a sustained flow rate of very high proportions.
Weather porn? Good grief, it’s giving regular porn a bad name!
The GPS says I’m 75′ above the Central Valley flood plane, so I’m getting kicks, etc. ;^)
A related story says the floods are every “150 years”, so we would be due. However the historical floods show the one previous to 1861 was in 1610 – that is 250, not 150. I guess their math is as good as their predictive models.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_thelookout/20110117/us_yblog_thelookout/scientists-warn-california-could-be-struck-by-winter-superstorm
It did not take long… and the “threat is on the rise”!!!!
First, “ARkStorm” bears an unfortunate resemblance to both David Arkenstone (New-Age musician) and ArcView (great software).
Second – pitching disaster preparedness a la a SyFy disaster flick may not be the best way to approach things, even in (especially in?) California. Yes, it has happened and will probably occur again. Yes, people need to be aware of the risks. But sheesh, my tax money went for this? Blagh.
Walls of water 10 ft high? Say goodbye to Al Gores SF frontage then!
But then isn’t the real problem that capitalist developers, ever seeking profit, have over the years unwisely built extensively on flood plains ( see Queensland and Brisbane) and sea shore frontages (see Florida and SF) with little regard to the physical reality of those locations. Unfortunately, thereafter, normal people have bought the dream that the charlatans have sold them.
Keith Bates says:
January 16, 2011 at 10:38 pm
Considering that we were supposed to be in a perpetual drought due to AGW getting a 1 in 200 year flood is quite an achievement.
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Err no.
1. There has been no claim of perpetual droughts. Just a claim of more frequent and intense droughts.
2. There has been no claim that floods will go away.
3. Predictions and actual temperature rises so far are small.
4. You are conflating actual events now with predictions of the next 50-100 years.
Dennis Nkols says
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I think everyone needs to also keep in mind those who fail to plan or allow the plan to be corrupted by greed or neglect, think Australia, Pakistan and Brazil, if something like this gets people asking the right questions can that be all that bad?
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Well you are bring a bit cheeky in suggesting that greed or neglect had anything much to do with Australia, Pakistan or Brazil floods. Ignorant guesswork I would say.
If you want to consider greed or neglect do it in you own backyard. Hurricane Katrina anyone????
Bicentenial natural catostrophies happen. Get over it.
Jack Linard
Were we talking about the Colorado River? I didn’t think we were.
LazyTeenager
Greed and neglect are a minor aspect of the Katrina catastrophe. Major aspect was building, not in the flood plain, but below the flood plain. Below sea level, actually.
Also, one can look to Katrina to see the importance of self-reliance, as opposed to dependence.
I live way above the flood plain. But, I make it a habit to get out of the way of Category 3 hurricanes, like Katrina (especially when they’re hyped as 5’s).
Dear California residents:
Save yourselves. Evacuate California.
This is just one more reason why it’s a good idea to do so.
Martin Brumby says:
January 17, 2011 at 12:19 am
Stanley holloway. I remember it well. 🙂
DaveE.
The Drudge Report put a link to the CA superstorm article on Yahoo:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_thelookout/20110117/us_yblog_thelookout/scientists-warn-california-could-be-struck-by-winter-superstorm
Close to 13,000 comments as I write this.
These are probably the same people who stopped the Auburn Dam near Sacramento. I’m from there. My Dad almost lost his car when Folsom Lake filled in a week in ’56. Such a storm and flood will happen. It’s good to have the discussion. It’s also important to realize why the State won’t be prepared for it. Someone should ask the current Governor why CA doesn’t have more flood control. Was it the actions taken in the late 70s and early 80s by a then younger Governor to “protect” the environment. If you knew the history you’d hope for such a storm and enjoy watching CA voters paddle around for a few weeks.
Well you notice (apart from 1938 an “outlier”) things are getting drier and less severe almost exponentially from the graph. There you are “global warming” at work its as simply as that.;)
Cheers.
Well, I personally was not one bit worried about a storm that may or may not ever happen as I worked outside in shorts and bare feet in my SoCal yard today. (89 degress F today) Wasn’t even worried about “the Big One”, either. If it happens, it happens, and there is nothing I can do to make it stop raining or shaking. People live happy lives every day in this world with far less than what I would have left after even the worst natural disaster. (Sorry about all that “global warming” most of the rest of you are experiencing)
I’m glad to see I’m not the only one bloggin’ about how misguided this approach is. My suggestion is: Instead of Shape up or you’re doomed!, how about inclusive conversations about exactly what that storm was and could be? That might actually help people become interested, rather than tune it out. My blog entry here is my attempt to edumacate where the USGS falls short.
I hope to have an in-depth article on the 1862 events by this December, the 150th anniversary of the storm.
Perhaps USGS will begin work on its next disaster scenario. After all, it happened before so it could happen again. Hundreds of “experts and scientists, assisted by Hollywood visualization specialists”, will envision what “might happen” (no actual probability here, just scary stories with a grain of truth) due to the next –
COMET CALAMITY!!
That’s right, ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls. Coming “soon” to a planet near you, witness the destruction and carnage of:
flaming atmospheres
massive earthquakes and humongous tsunami(s)
environ-mental deeee-struction – unprecedented!!
species extinction (reptiles beware, mammals better scurry)
climate change on a scale/pace unknown (even worse than CO2!)
next Ice Age, or Earth’s surface burned to a crisp (we have models that project both)
the poor, women, and minorities disproportionately victimized!
Coming soon in the “Global calamity” series will be:
Pole-reversal, how everything “might” die if there’s no magnetic field!
Red Giant, what “might” happen if the Sun goes “postal”
Black Hole, what “might” happen if the Sun goes “anti-postal”
Darwin’s Revenge, what “might” happen if microbes figure out how to operate collectively like an opposable thumb!
Run for cover! Build a backyard shelter! Invest in gold! Be afraid, BE VERY AFRAID.
As a Californian, I think of a giant weather system washing away Sacramento as a feature, not a bug.