SST UPDATE FROM AMSR-E
By Dr. Roy Spencer, PhD
The following plot shows global average sea surface temperatures from the AMSR-E instrument over the lifetime of the Aqua satellite, through Dec 31, 2010. The SSTs at the end of December suggest that the tropospheric temperatures in the previous graph (see post here) still have a ways to fall in the coming months to catch up to the ocean, which should now be approaching its coolest point if it follows the course of previous La Nina’s.
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Here’s a visual view of the global SST:
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Joe Bastardi says:
January 3, 2011 at 5:27 pm
Thank the Lord for Dr. Roy Spencer!
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Sometimes I say that same thing about you! LOL
Joe Bastardi says
I second that along with a whole bunch of other people!
The CFS Forecast Nino 3.4 SST Anomalies (K) is the only one suggesting we may have a ‘back to back’ La Nina in the offing.
tallbloke says on January 3, 2011 at 5:16 pm
Would you care to quantify that, otherwise that prediction is not very useful. For example, 0.0001C below 2008 could be considered well below by some people.
Saw a comment on here that made me worry about next week’s weather down here in LA (lower Alabama). I notice accuweather is already showing next Tuesday 8-10 deg-F cooler then wx.com. WUWT? Do I need to heat trace my well, tank, and associated plumbing?
Hey rollingstone, it is now 2011. Also, seasons in the Southern hemisphere are opposite of those in the Northern.
I don’t think SST ever tells us much about climate one way or another. It’s the mixing point between the water oceans and the surface air. And both are always trying to reach equilibrium. The water takes much more time to absorb heat from or release heat to the air. This interaction gives us the very beneficial effects of moderating temperature near the coasts and maintaining a stable range of temperatures worldwide.
If we wanted to find useful data from the ocean about future temperatures, I think we’d need to measure temperature by depth when the seas are relatively calm (ie. not a major El Nino or La Nina). If we did that, maybe we’d be able to estimate how much energy is currently stored in the ocean. With a long enough record, we might even be able to determine an average, and whether or not the stored heat is at a relative surplus or deficit level.
How much that information would reveal about global temperatures is dubious, since the transfer of energy to the atmosphere isn’t ever at a steady rate, but, at least, there would be some relationship.
It might be more helpful if I submit a link. All the other models are looking toward a neutral ENSO, while CFS is a standout. Reminds me of the mid-1950s.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/nino34SSTMonE120.gif
Rising solar activity is clearly driving SST down…
Too bad we don’t have thermometers in rivers and soils. My worm garden has suffered from cold summer soils the last two years, and our rivers in NE Oregon are freezing from the bottom up starting in December, an event that occasionally only happens in January.
Something sure has flipped. Today I wore thermals and thick jeans, topped with two layered sweaters, topped with a long wool winter coat and winter scarf tied around my head. At 4 foot 10 and 1/2 inches, I couldn’t bend my flippin arms to drive! And if whatever has flipped keeps on flippin, a lot more people will be flippin party affiliation. Cuz it’s FLIPPIN COLD!
holy smokes….did leif svalgaard make a joke?
Rollingstone says:
January 3, 2011 at 4:02 pm
And what’s strange about the ocean warming in spring and summer and cooling in winter?
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Hey wait a minute RS our seasons in the southern Hem are reversed to yours! so its cooling in our summer.!! This is all global my son. In fact it’s the “long” term trend of this data that’s the issue (in this case its pretty short) but that trend looks pretty flat to my eye from 2002 to 2010.!
peterhodges says:
January 3, 2011 at 7:48 pm
holy smokes….did leif svalgaard make a joke?
Reminding people how they reacted to the drop in 2007-2008 [but with the reverse effect]. They shouldn’t jump on every little wiggle of a messy system and take that as confirmation of whatever pet theory they are peddling.
Leif Svalgaard says:
January 3, 2011 at 7:00 pm
Rising solar activity is clearly driving SST down…
It is clear that Gaia has requested the rising activity from Sol to offset the cooling she feels from the icy water brought about by irritable climate syndrome.
Pamela,
Cove is 3 degrees warmer than Ellensburg this fine January evening; neither yet at or below zero F. A bit crisp and nippy, but due to warm on Wednesday. Put some popcorn on and grab a beer.
Rolling Stone:
No sir if you look at the chart you see that the from the start of 2008 to mid 2009 the SST rise with a few bumps along the way. Sorry but the temps start to rise in the N.H. winter.
Leif Svalgaard says:
January 3, 2011 at 7:00 pm
Rising solar activity is clearly driving SST down…
The festive season has finished now Leif. It’s time for you to cork the vodka bottle.
I used to read the comments of certain posters in a state of awe, marveling at their knowledge. Now, after a couple of years of reading these same people’s comments, the only thing I am in awe of is their smug, self-absorbed egocentricity.
“…The graph suggests no significant warming during the past 8 years…”
But it’s the TREND that’s important (or so we’ve been told). It doesn’t matter where “zero” is on the chart. If you use the bottom of the chart as a reference, it’s ALL been above “zero”…
MartinGAtkins says:
January 3, 2011 at 9:21 pm
The festive season has finished now Leif. It’s time for you to cork the vodka bottle.
In Russia where I lived for a while [actually then the CCCP] vodka bottles do not have corks, but tear-off caps. I was lectured [when I remarked on this] that nobody in his right mind would recap or cork a bottle, once open.
Jason Joice M.D. says:
January 3, 2011 at 9:29 pm
Take it easy, Jason, it will pass, this is an end of year WUWT type of Roman (Saturnalia) role reversal; should be back to normal by the feast of Epiphany on January 6.
Leif Svalgaard says:
January 3, 2011 at 7:00 pm
Rising solar activity is clearly driving SST down…
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No, it isn’t. (Got your joke!) But isn’t there some sort of lag here?
The heat storage capacity of the oceans is well documented. I live in an area where we plant palmetto and mexican fan palms to give it that “tropical” look, only to see those palms trimmed back to the nub after extensive cold and even some snow.
Well that is in part because, where I live, thanks to the battle of the last vestiges of the Labrador Current and the ever-vigorous Gulf Stream, the temps of our ocean vary between seasons over 42 degrees F….sometimes more.
And trust me, the meteorology reflects it.
But one thing is certain: ocean temps lag that of atmospheric temps.
Certainly you can not just blame the natural decline in the winter’s ocean temps on the weather above? Has to do with the amount of (or lack of) solar energy heating the ocean.
Might there not be a lag (or lags) of ocean heat storage in relation to solar bombardment of the planet?
Too soon to rule out. But Tallbloke and Stephen Wilder and others opine on this quite regularly.
Certainly, as in normal natural simple observation (and Occams Razor) more sun energy equals more energy absorbed in the oceans….even if (and why even the “if” there should be an expected lag) a lag occurs.
Perhaps the lag is evident now….as solar activity “upswings” (though really sickly) (if you can call it an upswing) and ocean temperatures drop.
Hmmm.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
“Leif Svalgaard says:
January 3, 2011 at 7:00 pm
Rising solar activity is clearly driving SST down…”
More meridional/equatorward jets via increased cloudiness/albedo are skewing the balance in favour of La Nina as against El Nino.
The small increase in solar activity since the recent minimum is an irrelevance as compared to the difference between the top of cycle 23 and the likely top of cycle 24.
The change in the mix of particles and wavelengths from the sun has resulted in a change to the chemical balances in the atmosphere thus changing ozone quantities differentially at different levels so as to change the vertical temperature profile and redistribute the air pressure systems in the troposphere.
savethesharks says:
January 4, 2011 at 12:04 am
No, it isn’t. (Got your joke!) But isn’t there some sort of lag here?>
Yes, a negative lag since the sunspots lead the temperature by one year as is plain to anyone with eyes to see and ears to hear.
>> Leif
>> Rising solar activity is clearly driving SST down…
Its called a time lag. The oceans don’t respond to fluctuations like a teacup.
Besides, what we are seeing is a change in wind and weather circulations, not a change in TSI.