Piers Corbyn showed up on Fox and Friends this morning to discuss his most accurate prediction of a bone-chillingly cold winter, and throw some ad hominem attacks towards the global warming “cultists”. Many comments in the blizzard stories on WUWT have touted the achievements and skill of Corbyn, but, as with any long-range forecaster, he has been embarrassed by some spectacular failures.
So, is Corbyn a “broken clock” right twice-a-day or is he a visionary that sees things in the tea-leaves differently and correctly? Well, after this blizzard and the European deep-freeze, apparently we haven’t seen anything yet!
We report, you decide … or something.
From Mediaite (click for video link):
Predicting in November that winter in Europe would be “exceptionally cold and snowy, like Hell frozen over at times,” Corbyn suggested we should sooner prepare for another Ice Age than worry about global warming. Corbyn believed global warming “is complete nonsense, it’s fiction, it comes from a cult ideology. There’s no science in there, no facts to back [it] up.”
Piers at least is having a go at a forecast, below is the UK Met office monthly forecast for the UK. I could have produced this! as it represents a typical January weather pattern in UK, it isn’t a forecast, its just saying what the weather in UK is normally like in January. And we pay for this?
“The weather looks set to remain rather cold for much of this period, with overnight frosts quite likely. However, brief milder interludes are possible particularly in the south and west, with amounts of sunshine perhaps a little above average here. Precipitation amounts are expected to be around or slightly below normal.”
Dave Brown: The issue is not whether humans are or are not causing climate change.
I read his wikipedia bio courtesy of the link at the beginning of the article. Interestingly, it stops looking at his forecasting skill after some failed predictions in 2008. Seems like it would have been updated with recent successes.
I wonder if Connolley, having been banned from editing global warming, has taken to editing Corbyn’s profile?
Some here have conflated Corbyn’s weather forecasting with his climate forecasting. This has caused several fundamental misunderstandings in this thread.
The MET has 3 big winter failures in a row, and Piers is getting long-range forecasting in a high percentile confidence range.
Getting 3 month forecasts correct 80% (or better) of the time, like good meteorologists do for 3 day forecasts, is no small achievement.
Dear Ulric & Piers,
In reasoning with innocents, I would like to suggest that civility & decency demand a degree of restraint. Please bear in mind that there are innocents caught in the crossfire.
Best Regards,
Paul.
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UK & Other World Governments,
Piers Corbyn’s research needs to be publicly funded without delay. Simpson’s Paradox arises when spatiotemporal series are treated as spatially summarized time series. Blind innocents, including experienced & well educated ones, can easily fall into such traps unknowingly. Better eyesight reveals that the distribution of pressure in the atmosphere is not independent of solar & lunisolar factors. Public funding for an education campaign to raise awareness of the effects of grain & extent on summaries of spatiotemporal pattern (e.g. here) is strongly advised. Piers’ insights can trigger a domino train of advances in climate science.
Sincerely,
Paul Vaughan, B.Sc. (biology/math-stats), M.Sc. (applied stats)
Ecologist, Former Stats Instructor
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I encourage others, including climate change alarmists, to write to their governments to encourage immediate funding of Piers Corbyn’s research. Society & civilization will benefit from a better understanding of nature.
Best Regards to All.