Guest post by John Goetz
I read Judah Cohen’s opinion piece in the New York Times yesterday and could not decide if he was being serious or not when he concluded “It’s all a snow job by nature. The reality is, we’re freezing not in spite of climate change but because of it.”
He had to be joking, right? There is no way a “director of seasonal forecasting at an atmospheric and environmental research firm” could possibly believe the weather we are experiencing out here on the east coast is in any way different from the past. One need only look through past issues of the New York Times itself to debunk that idea.
I went to the archives section of the newspaper and did a simple headline search on the word “blizzard”, then scanned through the oldest articles first looking for references to blizzards in New York City. A blizzard in mid-March 1888 immediately jumped out as a particularly memorable storm. A headline from the newspaper read:
IN A BLIZZARD’S GRASP
THE WORST STORM THE CITY HAS EVER KNOWN
BUSINESS AND TRAVEL COMPLETELY SUSPENDED
New-York helpless in a tornado of wind and snow which paralyzed all industry, isolated the city from the rest of the country, caused many accidents and great discomfort, and exposed it to many dangers.
Two feet of snow fell in New York City during the storm, and the wind approached, but did not quite reach, 50 miles per hour. The blizzard was quite expansive, stretching from Ohio to Boston. A report from Cleveland read “Worst snowstorm in a long period of years” with high winds and heavily falling snow following a winter “unusually mild and free from snow, only an occasional cold wave indicating the season of the year“.
While that winter may have been mild in Cleveland, 1888 proved quite harsh in the prairie states. A massive blizzard that accompanied arctic cold of 20 to 40 degrees below zero stretched from Texas to the Dakotas on January 12. Two headlines from the New York Times that January summed up the massive storm. First from January 13:
THE NORTHWEST BLIZZARD; SEVERAL LIVES LOST AND MANY PERSONS MISSING.
THE RAILROADS BLOCKADED, TRAINS ABANDONED, AND GREAT DAMAGE CAUSED TO LIVE STOCK.
“Yesterday’s storm proved to be of much greater severity than was at first supposed. It was general throughout Minnesota, Dakota, Montana, Wisconsin, and Iowa, and railroad men say it has not been surpassed since 1872. The storm effects were most severe from the peculiar action of the winds and drifts.”
And another from January 21:
THE BLIZZARD’S VICTIMS
TWO HUNDRED AND THIRTY SEVEN LIVES LOST
The New York City blizzard of March, 1888 certainly left a lasting impression, as it was used to measure several other bruising storms that occurred during the remaining years of that century. This includes the blizzard of March 13, 1891; the February 27, 1894 blizzard where “only about a foot and a half of snow fell in 24 hours” with gale winds up to 44 miles per hour. That storm was closely followed by the monster of April 12, 1894 described by the Times as “almost a repetition of the blizzard of 1888.”
Then came the blizzard of January 28, 1897 that slammed the eastern seaboard. An article reported from Baltimore said the city had 7 inches of snow, the “most severe storm of the present season. There have been few heavier snowfalls since the blizzard of 1888. Ice has fastened itself in the waters of the rivers and Chesapeake Bay“. Then just northeast of New York City came the word that “Rockville, Conn., reports a fall of 34 inches of snow, drifts 5 to 8 feet deep, and that the blizzard has been the most severe since 1888.”
The final blizzard of the 1800’s did not, apparently, rise to the level where it could be compared with that of 1888. This storm occurred on February 11, 1899, and was nothing more than heavy snow accompanied by 50+ mile per hour winds, and it followed a week of record cold where, as the storm began, “the mercury mounted to a comparatively dizzy height of 6 degrees above zero“.
That storm of 1888 sure must have been something. I can tell you this – I sure don’t long for those “good old days.”
1888 blizzard references (requires a NYT subscription to open PDFs):
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I tend to agree John. The connection between these storms and global warming is rather speculative at this time.
Contrary to the simple-minded opinions of the scoff-scoff brigade, counter-intuitive effects from global warming are not out of the question. For example there was some concern about a freeze in Europe due to a Gulf Stream slow down. That concern receded once the studies came up with more evidence.
The current snows are due to odd weather patterns. It is not clear if the odd weather patterns are just random flukes or are caused by or enhanced by global warning.
A mechanism has been proposed in which greater heat absorption in the Arctic can cause shifts in weather patterns. Still speculative at this stage.
The climate modelling predicted a number of years ago that global warming will produce greater climate variability. We do seem to be seeing that lately. That could be a fluke. If the variability, hot and cold, continues for another 3 years I am calling it proven.
Let’s all exercise a little restraint and remember that this amount of snow is the raw pre-adjusted figure. It may well be that when the official NASA statistics are published we’ll find that in fact only half and inch has fallen.
Small sign that the times are a changing.
This article and WUWT is referred to in The Australian (major national paper) in an article taking the mickey out of Global Warming.
New York, New York, it’s a helluva town, the temperature goes up and snow comes down
LazyTeenager @ur momisugly 3.41pm.
“The climate modelling predicted a number of years ago that global warming will produce greater climate variability. We do seem to be seeing that lately. That could be a fluke. If the variability, hot and cold, continues for another 3 years I am calling it proven.”
Whilst it is encouraging that you seem to be trying to keep an open mind, please don’t get sucked into the IPCC Doublespeak tactics. Climate modelling cannot “predict” anything. People can make projections on a variety of “what if” imagined scenarios based on whatever good, bad or indifferent error-prone information is inputted by the modellers. As far as I’m aware, even the most ardent of AGW believers have never claimed there has been a perfect climate model, given the multiple factors and forces affecting this chaotic system make the existence of such a “beast” nigh impossible.
This hasn’t stopped the UNIPCC claiming that since they can’t find sufficient natural variability factors in their inadequate models to explain the alleged “unprecedented” global warming, the seeming correlation of rising CO2 levels must be the causation !
On the known facts available, there is absolutely no definitive evidence that there is “greater climate variability” now than there has been before in the billions of years history of the Earth. One thing you can be sure of is that natural climate variability will continue as it has done since Earth was first formed, complete with cyclical alternative periods of warming and cooling. What it won’t do is “prove” the hypothesis of AGW though many like you may choose to see it as such. Please keep an open mind and continue to question both sides of any debate. True science is never “settled” and “consensus” of no matter how many believers make a wrong hypothesis right!
On his blog Dr Pielke Snr also very politely nukes Judah Cohen’s opinion piece. Then he nukes IPCC grade global climate models using Mr Cohen’s oped.
This is fun. I really am running out of popcorn.
(via Tom Nelson)
“The current snows are due to odd weather patterns. It is not clear if the odd weather patterns are just random flukes or are caused by or enhanced by global warning.”
LazyTeenager,
What is so odd about the weather pattern?It is only odd if you are an Alarmists who believes that cold, snowy Winters are a thing of the past. The synoptic weather pattern that produced this storm is nothing out of the ordinary for the Eastern Seaboard. Blizzards do happen in North America during the Winter. Sheesh!!
A great report with headlines and articles from major newspapers from the 1800’s titled “Notable Eastern U.S. Snowstorms of the 19th Century”.
by Donald Sutherland
— The 19th Century, which lay at the edge of the “Little Ice Age” that brought often early winters and late springs to Europe and the North America provides a fascinating illustration of the way the weather once was. Research has suggested that “during the Little Ice Age, both phases of the NAO {North Atlantic Oscillation} seem to have intensified, producing champion storms and numbing cold spells, which imposed enormous cost on Europe and North America”.
The combination of larger pools of colder air an more intense storms likely contributed to remarkable early and extraordinary late snowfalls in the Eastern United States. It might have also contributed to a number of frigid storms that combined heavy snows, high winds, and bitterly cold temperatures. —
http://62.128.151.219/Library/A1oj1e/NotableEasternUSSnow/resources/index.htm?referrerUrl=
The excellent bibliography (starts on page 401) shows the headlines of newspapers during the various major snowstorms of the 1800’s.
If you search through the archives of the newspapers listed you can find the articles behind the headlines. IE:
“Swamped in the Snow” The Washington Post, January 29, 1897
–From Ten Inches to Two Feet of It Covers the East. Blew great guns on the coast. Local Traffic Badly Interrupted in New York City–Up the State Railroads Had Their Snow Plows Out–Vessels in Distress Along the Atlantic Coast–A Regular Blizzard in New England–Dangerously Cold Weather in Florida.
The snow storm which commenced yesterday afternoon abated about noon to-day, leaving the ground in this vicinity hidden beneath a covering of snow ten inches deep. The wind, which had been almost entirely still up to this time, began to blow in fitful gusts, picking the powderlike snow from roofs and elevated railroad structures, and evell the sidewalks and streets and throwing it in blinding masses into the eyes and faces of pedestrians–
http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/washingtonpost_historical/access/188183712.html?FMT=ABS&FMTS=ABS:AI&date=Jan+29,+1897&author=&desc=SWAMPED+IN+THE+SNOW
“Snow Bound” Boston Globe, Nov 7, 1894
Blizzardous Blizzard It Was Monday Night. Played Havoc with Telegraph and Telephone Wires. Boston Cut Off from the Outside World. Trains Delayed and Trees Badly Damaged. Two Provincetown Brothers Perished in Storm.
The most blizzardous blizzard that has struck New England since March, 1888, arrived Monday night, breaking down telegraph and telephone wires, ruining thousands of shade and fruit trees, delaying trains for hours and…
http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/boston/access/570533632.html?FMT=ABS&FMTS=ABS:AI&type=historic&date=Nov+7,+1894&author=&pub=Boston+Daily+Globe&edition=&startpage=2&desc=SNOW+BOUND.
Moderator:
If link to the ““Notable Eastern U.S. Snowstorms of the 19th Century” article above does not work, try this one:
http://content.yudu.com/Library/A1oj1e/NotableEasternUSSnow/resources/index.htm?referrerUrl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com%2Fsearch%3Fhl%3Den%26rlz%3D1B3GGLL_enUS381US381%26q%3D%2522donald%2Bsutherland%2522%2Bsnowstorms%2Bof%2Bthe%2B19th%2Bcentury%2Bauthor%26aq%3Df%26aqi%3D%26aql%3D%26oq%3D%26gs_rfai%3D
Once again someone confusing weather with climate and using news paper headlines as though they are hard science. Might as well consult with the magic 8 ball. The climate change deniers focus on single events of their choosing and totally ignore the global trends which are backed by robust data. In fact weather extremes have long been postulated as an effect of global warming and climate change. In spite of the blizzard 2010 will still be one of the warmest years globally on record.