Solar Geomagnetic Ap Index Hits Zero

This is something you really don’t expect to see this far into solar cycle 24.

But there it is, the Solar Dynamics Observatory satellite shows the sun as a cueball:

The Ap index being zero, indicates that the sun’s magnetic field is low, and its magneto is idling rather than revving up as it should be on the way to solar max. True, it’s just a couple of data points, but as NOAA’s SWPC predicts the solar cycle, we should be further along instead of having a wide  gap:

The Ap index generally follows along with the sunspot count, which is a proxy of solar activity.

And here’s the daily Ap geomagnetic data. The Ap is bumping along the bottom:

Graph by Jan Alvestad

 

The long term Ap has been on a downtrend, ever since there was a step change in October 2005:

The overall data looks pretty anemic:

This page is normally updated once a day by Jan Alvestad. All values are preliminary.

[Solar Terrestrial Activity Report]

h/t to Joe D’Aleo and thanks to Jan Alvestad for keeping this data and plotting it.

Solar and geomagnetic data (last month)

Date Measured

solar flux

Sunspot number Planetary A index K indices (3-hour intervals) Min-max solar wind speed (km/sec) Number of flares (events)
STAR NOAA STAR NOAA Daily low – high Planetary Boulder C M X
20101222 77.7 12 0 0.0 0 0-0 00000000 00001100 287-381
20101221 77.9 12 0 1.3 1 0-3 01001000 11101100 347-457
20101220 77.9 12 0 8.5 8 3-18 13222223 13222223 346-479
20101219 80.9 11 0 1.4 1 0-6 10000002 11000112 345-415
20101218 80.5 0 0 2.3 2 0-5 11001001 11101211 353-446
20101217 81.6 11 11 3.1 3 0-7 21001111 31001221 383-524
20101216 84.1 11 23 4.6 5 0-9 21210111 21220221 433-567
20101215 86.9 22 11 8.9 9 3-27 34111111 44222211 544-655 1
20101214 90.3 34 33 11.1 11 5-18 12233323 13233323 491-757 1
20101213 87.7 49 46 5.4 5 2-9 22200022 32211212 385-611
20101212 89.4 52 23 3.8 4 0-15 00001312 00001422 293-445
20101211 86.9 23 25 0.9 1 0-3 00000001 01001001 284-354
20101210 88.4 40 33 0.3 0 0-2 00000000 00000110 321-349
20101209 86.8 54 22 1.8 2 0-3 11000001 11200110 341-404
20101208 87.2 48 22 2.8 3 0-7 11001021 12111222 337-445
20101207 87.1 31 34 3.9 4 2-7 10102111 01112211 342-385
20101206 88.5 28 35 2.4 2 0-4 00011111 01121121 269-351
20101205 87.9 42 47 0.8 1 0-4 00000001 00011101 270-274
20101204 87.4 52 48 0.6 1 0-3 00100000 00101010 270-314
20101203 86.8 47 27 1.1 1 0-5 01000000 02000000 270-337
20101202 86.5 38 32 2.6 3 0-6 21001000 11000110 339-360
20101201 86.5 44 25 1.8 2 0-4 10000011 10100210 338-358 1
20101130 86.4 36 24 3.0 3 2-4 01011110 12021110 345-402
20101129 82.5 24 31 3.1 3 0-5 00111110 01221111 348-437
20101128 80.1 34 34 6.1 6 0-12 22101231 23212221 384-460
20101127 76.5 38 11 11.9 12 0-67 00001164 00001243 294-520
20101126 76.2 12 23 1.6 2 0-4 00001111 00001110 344-390
20101125 77.9 25 22 3.6 4 2-6 12111110 02112110 382-477
20101124 75.8 23 11 4.4 4 3-6 11111122 11221221 426-518
20101123 75.3 12 12 7.8 8 3-15 21311332 21312321 452-537

This page is normally updated once a day by Jan Alvestad. All values are preliminary.

[Solar Terrestrial Activity Report]

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Jason Joice

Is anyone besides me worrying about the real consequences of a severe, long term minimum? I want to cheer as the aun goes quiet and the globe cools, but a good part of me is quite apprehensive as to what this could mean to mankind.

Bruckner8

No no! It’s not zero! We just can’t measure it with our current instruments! Wait, wait, here’s a better device, ok, now we can go back and re-measure, re-calibrate, recount and restate all of the numbers again, as far back as we want! I mean, had we had this device back in 2010, surely we would’ve counted it…
/sarcasm
Science is a bitch, sometimes.

Dave Springer

Now here would be a great time to get some geo-engineering project proposals to break up blocking highs over Greenland. The cost of a hard winter in North America and Europe has got to be billions and billions. For greenies just think how much extra fossil fuel is being used to keep a billion people in heated dwellings.
Of course Greenlanders might have some objections. Their heating bills are substantially reduced and who knows – if it keeps up they can keep cattle like the Vikings once did. Maybe even grow apples too.
In the meantime people who aren’t old enough to remember what the winters were like 40 or more years ago are getting their first taste. Hey look, Mikey doesn’t like it!

MattN

Max amplitude 50-60. Carbon copy of the Dalton. Interesting times, indeed…..

peterhodges

i guess more cosmic rays must be getting in!

Richard

@DoctorJJ “Is anyone besides me worrying about the real consequences of a severe, long term minimum? I want to cheer as the aun goes quiet and the globe cools, but a good part of me is quite apprehensive as to what this could mean to mankind.”
You SHOULD not be. You SHOULD be worried about Global Warming, not a bit of cooling. Think of the havoc Global Warming WOULD have caused throughout Europe and Brittan, had they got the expected and forecast warm winter, and not the few inches of snow and slightly cooler temperatures that they are having.
Whose afraid of the big bad snow and ice?

Al Gore explained it to me best. He said that man’s use of fossil fuels is causing the sun’s spin to go out of whack, which makes… I can’t remember it all, but the important thing is that we need to stop using oil. He sounded pretty confident about it.

Chris Reeve

Wal Thornhill writes:
“Sunspots are dark instead of bright, which is prima facie evidence that heat is not trying to escape from within. And the Sun’s corona is millions of degrees hotter than the photosphere. These simple observations point to the energy source of the Sun being external. Add to this the dominant influence of magnetic fields on the Sun’s external behavior and we arrive at the necessity for an electrical energy supply. It is the “subtle radiation traversing space which the star picks up,” and which Eddington immediately dismissed because his gravitational model required energy to be generated at the core of the star to bloat it to the observed size.”
Eugene Parker writes:
“[T]he pedestrian Sun exhibits a variety of phenomena that defy contemporary theoretical understanding. We need look no farther than the sunspot, or the intensely filamentary structure of the photospheric magnetic field, or the spicules, or the origin of the small magnetic bipoles that continually emerge in the supergranules, or the heat source that maintains the expanding gas in the coronal hole, or the effective magnetic diffusion that is so essential for understanding the solar dynamo, or the peculiar internal rotation inferred from helioseismology, or the variation of solar brightness with the level of solar activity, to name a few of the more obvious mysterious macrophysical phenomena exhibited by the Sun.”
More from Wal Thornhill …
“Countless billions of dollars have been wasted based on the thermonuclear model of stars. For example, trying to generate electricity from thermonuclear fusion, “just like the Sun.” The thought that solar scientists have it completely backwards has not troubled anyone’s imagination. The little fusion power that has been generated on Earth has required phenomenal electric power input, “just like the Sun!” The Sun and all stars consume electrical energy to produce their heat and light and cause some thermonuclear fusion in their atmospheres. The heavy elements formed there are seen in stellar spectra. It explains why the expected solar neutrino count is low and anti-correlated with sunspot numbers. It explains why many stars are considered “chemically peculiar.” Get the physics right first and the mathematics will follow.”
(These quotes come from “Our Misunderstood Sun” at http://www.holoscience.com/news.php?article=ah63dzac, and are intended to remind people that putting sugar sprinkles onto a turd does not make it taste or smell any better. We need to be looking at errors in the foundational assumptions that go into these models.)
REPLY: “And the Sun’s corona is millions of degrees hotter than the photosphere. These simple observations point to the energy source of the Sun being external. ”
Really? What rubbish. – Anthony

Robinson

Is anyone besides me worrying about the real consequences of a severe, long term minimum?

Not yet. CO2 is still increasing, so we should be ok :p.

Dave Springer

I don’t suppose this will do anything to stop the flood of legal immigrants from New York to Texas. A little 2010 census humor there.
What’s behind the rise of Texas?
[link was missing target URL, so I edited out the HTML that was broken. -MOD-e]

By Ruben Navarrette Jr., Special to CNN
[snippage – go to link for full article]
It makes for quite a sea change. We are seeing the transfer of influence and prominence away from what has long been considered the power corridor of Boston, Washington and New York and toward the Sunbelt.
Texas is the buckle in that belt. If you want to catch a glimpse of the future, you don’t go to Alexandria or Syracuse or Worcester. You go to Austin, Houston or San Antonio.
A generation or two ago, Americans left the Northeast and headed west to California in search of the Pacific, milder climate, bountiful farmland and a spirit of tolerance. Now, they’re still leaving the Northeast — but also leaving California — to head to Texas in pursuit of lower taxes, less government regulation, lower home prices and a spirit of independence.

You know this Solar Cycle reminds me of that Monty Python Dead Parrot Routine.
So is old Sol pining for the fjords?

Luis Dias

The graph is too noisy to take any kind of “aha” moment… it’s still very possible for the graph to catch up to the prediction. Check the spikes.

Dave Springer

DoctorJJ says:
December 23, 2010 at 10:10 am
“Is anyone besides me worrying about the real consequences of a severe, long term minimum? I want to cheer as the aun goes quiet and the globe cools, but a good part of me is quite apprehensive as to what this could mean to mankind.”
The effect I think would be best described as sobering. Humbling might fit well too.
This is mother nature giving us a bitch slap. At least it isn’t a supervolcano, large asteroid strike, or record setting coronal mass ejection. There’s far worse that can happen. At least we can probably predict an asteroid strike and do something to prevent it. And we could prepare for a big CME. Supervolcano – we’re probably screwed, glued, and tatooed there.
The very least of my worries is global warming. World War III ranks above global warming. Hell I’m cheering for global warming! Call me weird but I prefer plants and animals to barren ice and rock.

Dave Springer

re; missing link to CNN article
Darn. I hate when that happens.
http://www.cnn.com/2010/OPINION/12/23/navarrette.texas.growth/

Madman2001

Leif, any insights? Is this just a temporary flagging? I would have to guess it is, but it is nonetheless worrisome.
It reminds me a bit of an old car I used to have that would have a problem starting up in cold weather. There was always that worrisome moment of “will she?”/”won’t she” as I listened to the motor turn over, trying to catch. I feel much the same here with Old Sol. I hope she starts up again.

Chris Reeve

Re: “REPLY: “And the Sun’s corona is millions of degrees hotter than the photosphere. These simple observations point to the energy source of the Sun being external. ”
Really? What rubbish. – Anthony”
Anthony, you’re making a critical error here.

Archonix

REPLY: “And the Sun’s corona is millions of degrees hotter than the photosphere. These simple observations point to the energy source of the Sun being external. ”
Really? What rubbish. – Anthony

Perhaps it would be better to say that they point to the distinct possibility that the current model of the sun’s function is incorrect.

Gerry

How many denials are we going to hear from the AGW crowd when the price of firewood and heating oil skyrockets during the next mini-Ice Age??? Oh, that’s right… it’s all just ‘climate change’ and ‘local weather’.

Dave Springer

@anthony
Do you think we’re in for an increase in La Ninas due to the solar slumber?
They cause droughts here in Texas. Bad ones. This one is no exception. California gets the floods instead. I’d rather have floods than droughts.

Nigel Brereton

We in the UK have just had a trial run. Won’t be so bad as long as we don’t expect to go anywhere or do anything.
Hopefully nature will give us another couple of winters trial preparation to adjust to the changes.
Anyone for skiing on the Kent coast?
I’m thinking ski-doo trecks along the Thames, past the Houses of Parliament.

Baa Humbug

I tell ya, I’m really starting to believe there is such a thing as universal karma.

R. Shearer

Is the curve of Predicted Values the original, adjusted, adjusted adjusted prediction?

dh7fb

For comparing of solar cycles 1…24 I made a small diagram http://www.dh7fb.de/ssnano/image003.gif in this way:
I took the monthly ssn-data from here http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/greenwch/spot_num.txt and the data of the beginning of the solar cycles and constructed an “average solar cycle”. After this I calculated the monthly anomaly of solar-cycles 1…24 and the “accumulated SSN Anomaly” (ASSNA) since the beginning of all the cycles after 23 month ( December 2008…November 2010) are the data for the diagram. I’ll update the figure every month. Maybe it’s interesting to see the development of SC24 in relation to the cycles b4 .
best wishes and merry Xmess DH7FB

John Day

@teh article
> The Ap index being zero, indicates that the sun’s magnetic field is low.
Actually, the Ap index (and its logarithmic cousin Kp) are strictly measures of fluctuations in the Earth’s magnetic field, not the solar magnetic field. It is a measure of tiny changes in the Earth’s magnetic field, caused by interaction with Earth’s ionosphere and plasmasphere, and indirectly with the Sun through interaction with the solar wind, a magnetized stream of electrons and protons.
http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/geomag/kp_ap.html
These magnetic perturbations of the Earth’s magnetic field (~ 50,000 nano-teslas [nt]) are on the order of a few nt. A magnetic storm is a period of high fluctuation, as much as 500nt, caused by coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and such.
Think of geomagnetic storms as magnetic “quakes”, analogous to earthquakes, except the magnetic field is trembling, not the ground.
So the title of this article “Solar Geomagnetic Ap Index Hits Zero” is a misnomer and should read “Terrestrial Geomagnetic Ap Index Hits Zero”, and even that is a bit redundant, geomagnetic says it all

Chris Thorne

The really frightening thought is this:
If this low internal solar activity really is a valid correlate with a cooling Sun delivering less energy to the Earth, and if it lasts for some time, and if we really are facing a rapid global cold snap analogous to a Maunder or Dalton minimum, there is no course of action that would be LESS well suited to that than the current model of investing heavily in windmills for electric power. To say nothing of relying on agricultural crops for vehicle fuels!

Sean Houlihane

To be fair, the SWPC projection was ‘released May 8, 2009’, when there was very little to go on, and it is clear from their web-page that there was some disagreement about the estimation. I think there is a better agreement now that the max=90 was too high. Also, we are not ‘here’ on the graph, we are at the end of the blue line (i.e. 6 months ago) since the variables are so noisy that they have to be averaged over a year to make much sense.
This month’s datum looks like it will be well below the line, and a better estimate of the progression of the cycle should come in a couple of months when the upward ramp becomes more clearly defined and it can be fitted to the shape derived by averaging the previous cycles. (or maybe we start to observe a divergence from the pattern, but I don’t think that can be claimed yet).
In terms of a climatic effect, I suspect at least another year will be necessary before we can see if it is even possible that there is an observable effect on temperature – although it is possible that more direct effects can be wrung from recent observations (except for the big ElN which got in the way)

Sam Hall

[quote]Dave Springer says:
December 23, 2010 at 10:52 am
I don’t suppose this will do anything to stop the flood of legal immigrants from New York to Texas. A little 2010 census humor there.[/quote]
Not as long as we don’t have an income tax.

Chris Reeve

Re: “REPLY: “And the Sun’s corona is millions of degrees hotter than the photosphere. These simple observations point to the energy source of the Sun being external. ”
Really? What rubbish. – Anthony
Perhaps it would be better to say that they point to the distinct possibility that the current model of the sun’s function is incorrect.”
If there exists any pretense that we are being objective in science, then there exists a burden to not imagine that we can dismiss the Big Bang’s “former competitor” on the basis of just two sentences. I’ve spent close to five years learning this competing cosmology, and I can say with confidence that the Sun’s behavior can indeed be accurately modeled as a plasma glow discharge. If any of you are not familiar with the specific behavior of laboratory plasmas, then can I recommend that you guys try to be more open-minded on this topic until you are? I don’t think that this is too much to ask for on what is in truth one of the most complex questions facing mankind: What powers the Sun.

INGSOC

I am reminded that it takes a lot of things to go right for this planet to maintain a warm and consistent atmosphere. On the other hand, it would be easy for the Earth to revert to a snowball.

Dave Springer

re; sun corona temperature and energy source
It’s 2-3 million Kelvin but that’s pretty meaningless because the corona is a near perfect vacuum. The photosphere is what we see and that’s 5000K. The core, which is where the energy is generated by gravitational compression of hydrogen to fusion temperature and pressure, is 14.5 million K and is by far the hottest densest portion of the sun.
The corona, because it’s so vacuous, throws off almost no radiation and neither does it absorb a significant amount . That’s why it isn’t visible except during a full eclipse.

John Day

@John Day
> Think of geomagnetic storms as magnetic “quakes”, analogous to earthquakes,
> except the magnetic field is trembling, not the ground.
… forgot to mention, using this earthquake analogy, that Ap/Kp indices are then analogous to the open-ended Richter Index for measuring the intensity of earthquakes. Kp, being logarithmic, is closest to this Richter analogy. Ap can be thought of roughly as the anti-log of Kp.
Ap, being linear, can be averaged with other readings. Kp, being logarithmic, cannot be averaged. They both are a “Richter-like” measure of the “magnetic quakes” in the Earth’s magnetic field.
So an Ap value of zero doesn’t necessarily imply a low magnetic field value, only that there are no _measurable_ perturbations.

Gary Hladik

Dave Springer says (December 23, 2010 at 11:04 am): “The very least of my worries is global warming. World War III ranks above global warming.”
Heck, I worry more about hangnails than about “global warming” aka “climate change” aka “climate chaos” aka “climate disruption”.

andy

“Gerry says:
December 23, 2010 at 11:17 am
How many denials are we going to hear from the AGW crowd when the price of firewood and heating oil skyrockets during the next mini-Ice Age??? Oh, that’s right… it’s all just ‘climate change’ and ‘local weather’.”
Did you know that the theft of heating oil in the UK is one of the fastest rising crimes. The lowlife always seem to know the best way to get money and what people will be willing to pay for.

Frosty

Well, I just bought me & the wife ice skates, so it’s bound to start warming up, and if it doesn’t, last one round the lake is a rotten egg 🙂

Chris Reeve

Re: “It’s 2-3 million Kelvin but that’s pretty meaningless because the corona is a near perfect vacuum. The photosphere is what we see and that’s 5000K. The core, which is where the energy is generated by gravitational compression of hydrogen to fusion temperature and pressure, is 14.5 million K and is by far the hottest densest portion of the sun.
The corona, because it’s so vacuous, throws off almost no radiation and neither does it absorb a significant amount . That’s why it isn’t visible except during a full eclipse.”
By the way, none of the responses thus far have begun to grapple with the various enigmas which Wal Thornhill brings up. Anthony’s objection to Wal’s inference fails to address the numerous problems with the currently favored explanation, magnetic reconnection.

Magnetic reconnection is the process whereby magnetic field lines from different magnetic domains are spliced to one another, changing their patterns of connectivity with respect to the sources. It is a violation of an approximate conservation law in plasma physics, and can concentrate mechanical or magnetic energy in both space and time. Solar flares, the largest explosions in the solar system, may involve the reconnection of large systems of magnetic flux on the Sun, releasing, in minutes, energy that has been stored in the magnetic field over a period of hours to days. Magnetic reconnection in Earth’s magnetosphere is one of the mechanisms responsible for the aurora, and it is important to the science of controlled nuclear fusion because it is one mechanism preventing magnetic confinement of the fusion fuel.

Magnetic reconnection is something that has supposedly been “tested” and proven in the lab yet for some reason the lab results keep coming out “wrong.”
Currently when scientists create a “reconnection” event in the lab between two electrically charged plasma sheets the “reconnection” event takes place at twice the speed MHD theory predicts.
So far no one has been able to rectify this problem, nor have they been able to produce a “reconnecting” magnetic field without first applying current to the plasma sheets they are observing. The reason being obvious of course, in order to create a magnetic field, one must first induce an electrical current. So far, this is the only known way of producing a magnetic field in a plasma that can be tested.
As soon as the current shuts off, so too does the magnetic field.

INGSOC

I should have included that a steady and ample supply of C02 is also a requirement for a warm atmosphere such as ours. Our trace contribution being a drop in the bucket; but who knows, every little bit counts. A tiny shift towards reducing our atmosphere’ ability to retain heat could be very catastrophic, as extremely cold is the default state of our climate system. Life tends to avoid cold planets.

Kath

The Sun does appear to be quiet but it is still far more active than it was during the minimum. NASA’s latest SOHO images can be found here: http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime-images.html has some great images.
I’m waiting for the day when world wide 10m propagation on a modest antenna becomes a reality. I understand that will be around SSN 50 and above.

Anthony announced going off for holidays and the Sun wanted to follow him…..

Tesla_X

I’m wondering what the possible implications are for the solar industry and all the project metric$ going forward in North America and in the West…thinking there is a good chance the ~.5% annual degradation rates for PV assumed in most solar business models may not quite be enough…
And are we looking at a Dalton or a Maunder? Thoughts?
http://icecap.us/images/uploads/SOLAR_MINIMUM.pdf
Favorite points from this article…aside from the WUWT honorable mention therein?
“There remains the question of whether the Maunder Minimum will arrive in time to avoid a global carbon tax?” (where reality meets scientific wit)
“a better understanding of the Sun might now have practical value.” (intentional understatement of the century)
Are we there yet?

pochas

Dave Springer says:
December 23, 2010 at 11:56 am
“The core, which is where the energy is generated by gravitational compression of hydrogen to fusion temperature and pressure, is 14.5 million K and is by far the hottest densest portion of the sun.”
But Dave, according to the “Thunderbolts” website, the dark sunspots are a window into the interior of the sun, proving that the inside is cooler than the outside!
Open the pod bay doors, HAL.

Chris Reeve

Take your pick: Do you want an electric current powering the Sun? Or, would you prefer magnetic reconnection experiments, which apparently fail to work without an electric current?
I’m sure that *somebody* *somewhere* can come up with an inference which explains the inverse-corona temperature enigma and which does not involve an electric current. But upon what philosophical basis are we even trying so hard to do so? Isn’t this the same antiquated approach which led Sydney Chapman to ignore the role of the Sun when trying to explain the aurora?

Joseph in Florida

This article scares me. Especially the graph of the cooling of the last 5 million years. I have no idea how suddenly the next ice age can start; but it looks like the long term outlook for humanity is dark, dreary, and cold.
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2010/12/17/pliocene-warm-period-3-c-warmer-than-today/

Kath

I see that there are competing ideas as to how the Sun works. The only viable one that I have seen so far is fusion. It not only explains our star, but also stellar evolution such as red giants, novas and other related phenomena. We have still not figured out the finer details of stellar behaviour, but no doubt that will come in time.
Any competing theory has to be good enough to explain all aspects of stellar evolution, as well as variations that exist in our universe.

Mr. Alex

What’s really disturbing is the flux data
http://www.leif.org/research/F107%20at%20Minima%201954%20and%202008.png
It appears as if it has been virtually flat for the whole of 2010.

Solar Geomagnetic Ap Index Hits Zero
Posted on December 23, 2010 by Anthony Watts
This is something you really don’t expect to see this far into solar cycle 24.
Happened too exactly 75 years ago on Dec. 23, 1935, which was 2.3 years into cycle 17…
No matter what the Sun does, it has done it before 🙂
Chris Reeve says:
December 23, 2010 at 10:49 am
REPLY: “And the Sun’s corona is millions of degrees hotter than the photosphere. These simple observations point to the energy source of the Sun being external. ”
Really? What rubbish. – Anthony

Rubbish, indeed. As so much else.
Chris Reeve says:
December 23, 2010 at 11:50 am
I don’t think that this is too much to ask for on what is in truth one of the most complex questions facing mankind: What powers the Sun.
This has been known since 1938.
John Day says:
December 23, 2010 at 12:08 pm
So an Ap value of zero doesn’t necessarily imply a low magnetic field value, only that there are no _measurable_ perturbations.
So it is. In addition, geomagnetic activity has a strong semiannual variation, being smallest at the solstices.
—–
It is clear that solar cycle 24 will be a small cycle, as predicted.
A sector boundary is coming, so tomorrow AP will jump up again, as always when such a boundary sweeps over the Earth.

Joseph in Florida

Could a moderator please correct “colling” to “cooling” in my last post and delete this one please?
Thanks.
PS: I wish we had a “preview”.
[corrected – w.]

Solar Geomagnetic Ap Index Hits Zero
Posted on December 23, 2010 by Anthony Watts
This is something you really don’t expect to see this far into solar cycle 24.
BTW, Bill Livingston has just sent me his latest data. The Livingston-Penn effect is still on track: http://www.leif.org/research/Livingston%20and%20Penn.png
The larger dots and circles are yearly medians and means.
One of the important things to look for was if the L&P effect would change at solar minimum, going back up into the new cycle [making the effect just a solar cycle thing]. This did not seem to happen, solidifying the notion that something more unusual is going on [of course, the Sun has been there before – in 1645]

Rhyl Dearden

I worry about the effects of cold because it impedes the growth of crops, and starvation can happen if growing period is too short. Warming extends range of crop land, cooling contracts it and while there was starvation during the LIA think what it will be like this time – how much food reserves are there in the world? Already large numbers of people are on inadequate diets.

from mars

Well, the Solar Minimum began in 2008. That not prevented 2010 being so far the hottest year on record.
The Earth has been warming since the 1970s, while at the same time solar activity was in the decline, after peaking in the 1950s.
A new Dalton Minimum will not cause significant global cooling, the impact of the enhanced Greenhouse effect is overwelmingly bigger. The data show that clearly.

phlogiston

REPLY: “And the Sun’s corona is millions of degrees hotter than the photosphere. These simple observations point to the energy source of the Sun being external. ”
Really? What rubbish. – Anthony
Chris Reeve:
“Countless billions of dollars have been wasted based on the thermonuclear model of stars”
All these years thinking that things fall down when you drop them and stars are fuelled by hydrogen fusion to helium (the two elements that the sun oddly consists of in about the right balance) – but no … what you say makes wonderful sense all of a sudden. All the sun’s energy is instead mysteriously transmitted in an unmeasurable way through space! And all that material in the sun just sits there and generates no energy! Obvious when you think about it.
But lets not stop there. “Countless billions” have also been wasted on that other great scientific fallacy – the Copernical / Galilean model of the earth orbiting the sun. Any fool can tell you the sun orbits the earth! Ptolemy and those wise old Greeks were right – the apparent orbits are all the result of epicycles. The earth is stationary at the center of the Universe after all. How nice!
Electric energy transmission also makes much more sense between the spherical glass balls of the epicycles, within which all the heavenly bodies are embedded. No need to worry about those fantastic huge distances which make electric fields negligible.
Sparks between glass spheres – it all looks nostalgically like those old Gothic sci-fi horror movies, Frankenstein’s monster etc. All you need is some black and red costumes and cloaks, some white face powder and a nice big organ for sound effects.
Talking of Sci-fi, Chris Reeve – weren’t you in those Superman films and didn’t you – um – die?
O I forgot – now that there is no gravity, death is reversable also?