George Monbiot probably burst a blood vessel when he read this. Congratulations to Piers, who doesn’t need a teraflop class supercomputer to render a forecast. This passage tells the story:
I have not a clue whether his methods are sound or not. But when so many of his forecasts seem to come true, and when he seems to be so consistently ahead of the Met Office, I feel I want to know more.
Maybe that’s why Mr. Johnson says London is prepared for snow, where others are not.
Here’s some excerpts:
Do you remember? They said it would be mild and damp, and between one degree and one and a half degrees warmer than average. Well, I am now 46 and that means I have seen more winters than most people on this planet, and I can tell you that this one is a corker.
Never mind the record low attained in Northern Ireland this weekend. I can’t remember a time when so much snow has lain so thickly on the ground, and we haven’t even reached Christmas. And this is the third tough winter in a row. Is it really true that no one saw this coming?
Actually, they did. Allow me to introduce readers to Piers Corbyn, meteorologist and brother of my old chum, bearded leftie MP Jeremy. Piers Corbyn works in an undistinguished office in Borough High Street. He has no telescope or supercomputer. Armed only with a laptop, huge quantities of publicly available data and a first-class degree in astrophysics, he gets it right again and again.
And this:
The question is whether anthropogenic global warming is the exclusive or dominant fact that determines our climate, or whether Corbyn is also right to insist on the role of the Sun.
Full story here. Boris John is the Mayor of London, more here.
h/t to WUWT reader “Roger” aka “Old England”
Anthony, this could be one to follow up on or keep an eye on for the reply:
The BBC news last night said that the government was asking the Chief Scientist (sorry missed his name) whether we were likely to continue having these cold winters, so that we can better prepare if necessary.
The answer could be interesting.
@LazyTeenager says:
December 20, 2010 at 12:20 am
“Does anyone know if Piers Corbyn predicted the heatwaves?”
All pretty much missed apart from the Russian heat wave. I had them all forecast virtually to the day, but failed one period at the end of September when it was cooler that I expected. Piers though has had more success with winter temp`s then me, apart from January 2008.
http://www.sunrisecelebration.com/sunrise-blog/?p=135
miket says:
December 20, 2010 at 4:12 am
The BBC news last night said that the government was asking the Chief Scientist (sorry missed his name) whether we were likely to continue having these cold winters,
=======================================================
Now how stupid and scary is that?
Government actually thinks these glorified weathermen have a clue.
Humans have a weakness in understanding long term issues that affect the planet and not just their small portion of it. So when it’s cold in Britain, the British stop believing in AGW. If most of Europe remains cold, then most of Europe will stop believing in AGW. And even tampering with the world temperature records won’t stop that problem because you just can’t believe in AGW when you’re cold.
But more on topic, I thought the correlation between the temperature record and sun-spot activity wasn’t so great.
The first time I was aware of Piers was while watching the infamous movie/doco ‘The Great Global Warming Swindle’. At the time I was convinced of man made warming.
That movie/doco which I thankfully recorded made me ask many questions that were quite easy to answer. The research stream afterwards opened many doors.
Thanks Piers, you are a giant amongst men.
Piers Corbyn puts his money where his mouth is:
“The biggest wager yesterday was a £750 bet from a weather forecaster called Piers Corbyn, who thinks snow in Leeds, Newcastle & Norwich is a certainty!”
http://www.williamhillmedia.com/index_template.asp?file=15800
That was in November. Do you think any of these morons would do that:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/who/management/executive
I took the liberty of translating this article into French and of posting it here.
http://www.contrepoints.org/2010/12/20/9413-neige-pourquoi-londres-etait-preparee
It should a get a few more reads that way. If anyone has any use for it in French, use it as you see fit.
Just to correct those who try to pigeonhole Boris as a Conservative or Thatcherite or whatever.
The more accurate description is that Boris is Boris! A stereotypical politician is the last thing that he is. Under the floppy haired bumbling exterior is a very shrewd and quick brain. My suspicion is that very few of the words that come pouring out from Boris are as casually uttered as he likes to make them appear.
For those who might like to know a little more of him at his bumbling best, try this
We can assume that Boris was not on his first glass of bubbly when he gave this speech. Boring he isn’t.
Pamela Gray says:
December 19, 2010 at 10:12 pm
The Arctic Oscillation creates these cold winters. The question is, does the Sun’s variations, as incredibly small as they are, have any relation to the appearance of these atmospheric conditions?
Where do you get the incredibly small variations from?
Surely you are not in the “Leif nothing happening in the TSI camp?” brigade?
My friends the Jews with the Massad must have sent a stuxnet like virus to The Met computor. The computor is never wrong. They also must have gamed the weather to get rich on heating oil prices and grit prices.
On the other hand, I rule them out since snow dumped on Damascas.
We have to find an enemy,. How about President Bush?
When discussing the Sun, let’s know that there are three separate discussions related to its input. One deals with whatever incoming phenomenon is being measured at the outer edge of Earth. The other deals with whatever is being measured here at the surface, and the third deals with whatever is being measured that is let loose back out into space. There is direct evidence and plausible mechanism that Earth is by far and away the most varying entity in this set of measurements. For every post saying the Sun is the main cause of the changes here on Earth (and saying it does is not evidence or mechanism), there is direct and compelling evidence and plausible mechanism that the Earth itself is the main source of the variation that drives the changes in weather patterns we experience out the door.
http://edmall.gsfc.nasa.gov/inv99Project.Site/Pages/science-briefs/ed-stickler/ed-irradiance.html
Grand minimums are indeed long. Longer than many weather pattern affecting oscillations intrinsic to Earth. I would expect some of these cycles to be in the cool phase during these minimums. That does not mean that the Sun did it. Sure the Sun does have a small affect on weather pattern variations. But I just don’t see it as the major cause of these variations. Why? The null hypothesis (Earth’s intrinsic sources of variation) has not been disproven. And certainly not by saying, “It’s the Sun stupid”, or saying it was cold during this or that minimum.
Henry chance,
You’re exactly right. It’s all Bush’s fault: click
Great.
I did suggest this to Boris, and got the standard brush-off. Perhaps someone was listening.
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But you have to admit that it is the Left, not the Right, who have by and large lept upon Climatism with a fervor matched only by religious fundamentalists. That’s doubtless because the factitious problem of CAGW is a great excuse for statist ‘solutions’.
/Mr Lynn
Lucy Skywalker says:
December 20, 2010 at 1:35 am
Hoping to have some input here from Richard Holle on the other side of the pond. Holle’s last “coffee break rambles” made me sure we have another Einstein-standard mind well trained in the astrophysics necessary for workable weather forecasting.
I hope someone of Nigel Calder’s stature ghostwrites a popular book equivalent to The Chilling Stars, to explain Corbyn’s and Holle’s work (and others too in astrophysics).
Lucy…I am beginning to think you are easily led. In the past you have given the same admiration to Fred Bailey in regard to his solar chord theory which has now been completely debunked and as a result of reasonable scientific debate he has taken down his website. I respect Fred and Howard for following the scientific method.
Richard Holle has presented some theory but as yet has not provided anything concrete.
Pamela Gray says:
December 20, 2010 at 6:32 am
Grand minimums are indeed long. Longer than many weather pattern affecting oscillations intrinsic to Earth. I would expect some of these cycles to be in the cool phase during these minimums.
Could it be possible that the Sun is actually influencing these cool phases in oceanic/atmospheric cycles? Your thinking seems to be closed on these matters?
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Ode to Piers:
I believe that good philosophers fly alone, like eagles, and not in flocks like starlings. It is true that because eagles are rare they are little seen or heard, while the starlings fill the skies with their shrieks, and foul the earth beneath them.
By Galileo Galilei
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@gareth Phillips
Yes, but if we can open our minds on climate we should also be able to open our minds on politics and realize the left, socialism, communism, is really all about enslaving the population in dependency on government (the elites who run it, really). AGW is just a way they have found of intensifying that process of enslavement.
LazyTeenager says:
December 20, 2010 at 12:20 am
“…Another interesting question is why you think a record cold winter or two is proof of global cooling, while you don’t think that a record hot summer or two is proof of global warming….”
Many reasons. One is that according to AGW and the theory of GHG forcing, the effects would be felt with higher minimums rather than higher maximums – ie – milder winters. This is due to the fact that cold air is dryer and therefore the CO2 component of radiative forcing is proportionally greater. Another reason is that according to NASA, the recent heat waves in Russia were due to an atmospheric blocking event – an effect that happens when Rosby waves move against the jet stream at the same speed – and not the result of CO2. Also, despite these heat waves, the globally averaged temperature has not changed much over the last decade.
Hope this answers your question.
But is Corbyn actually right? Someone commented on the article that he wasn’t, ie. his predictions were on average no better.
Re: Baa Humbug says: December 20, 2010 at 12:44 am
That is not the British way of doing things. He’s already been vilified by the CAGW faithful and that hasn’t worked because he has this irritating habit of beating the official forecasts and making our public funded forecasting services look like idiots. They’re also tried asking for his methods, and Piers has naturally refused given he has a business to run based on his forecasting methods.
What would be more likely is an offer of a senior post at the Met Office is dangled to bring him in from the cold and into the Establishment. Then, after having acquired his methods, an unfortunate round of budget cuts can cast him out into the wildnerness again. Normality and the status quo is restored. Given the Met Office is a trading fund and Piers is a competitor, that could also be handled as a simple M&A activity.
As Piers is a competitor to our heavily subsidised state weather service, his business is a little vulnerable, especially if they figure out how he’s making his forecasts, so becoming an ‘insider’ in some fashion may end up beneficial.
E. M. Smith said:
As folks have gone to less efficient Object Oriented systems, to massive linked libraries, to ever more bloated but quick to write software: At the end of the day your laptop or desktop box is about the same perceived “speed” as it was many years ago
Wow!, you are one brave cookie!!!
Taking on the Object Oriented crowd takes infinitely more courage than taking on the AGW mob.
As it happens, I agree entirely. Software design and development is suffering from a generation of people who don’t know how to code in any other way, and force everything into the straight jacket of their paradigm. Not every problem can be neatly and efficiently solved in an object oriented manner. It has its place, but it is most definitely not suitable for all purposes.
Shared libraries were invented to save on disk and memory, both of which are now incredibly cheap and plentiful. Static linking had a lot to commend it, not least of all independence from “dependency hell”, and having to spend an inordinate amount of time and effort to construct the right environment before any piece of software can actually run.
Computer science and the art of programming are currently in a deep dark hole, guarded by the priests of OOP who are as vicious as any AGW proponent.
“Pamela Gray says:
December 20, 2010 at 6:32 am
For every post saying the Sun is the main cause of the changes here on Earth (and saying it does is not evidence or mechanism), there is direct and compelling evidence and plausible mechanism that the Earth itself is the main source of the variation.”
I’m not against ascribing as much as possible to internal system variability. Leif Svalgaard is at least consistent in proposing virtually 100% internal variability as he must if he limits the potential solar effect to a maximum of 0.1C.
But, but ,but:
I just cannot get ALL the observed phenomena to fit that limited scenario.
Increased jet stream meridionality did not happen as the troposphere warmed and the Arctic ice declined from the late 70s onward. In fact until around 2000 the Arctic Oscillation became increasingly positive with more zonal jets.
Zonality (the opposite of meridionality) did start to DECREASE from 2000 onwards as the sun passed the peak of cycle 23 but only slowly at first. The weakening of the AO took some 5 years or so and only over the past few years have we seen a pronounced negative AO at just the same time as really low solar activity.
So we see a lower level of solar activity than for a century or more at the same time as the most negative AO in the historical record.
Anyone declaring that that is pure coincidence has an uphill task in my view and if it is not a coincidence then it’s to the dustbin for established climatology.
Not only did the recently negative AO coincide with a less active sun but also the earlier strongly positive AO coincided with a more active sun and the mid 20th century cooling spell with a more negative AO coincided with weaker cycle 20.
And the LIA was characterised by more meridional jets (see ships logs) and a less active sun with the MWP characterised by more zonal jets with Greenland warm enough for agriculture at a time of more active sun.
Just too many mutually supporting and consistent ‘coincidences’ for plausible deniability.
That is not to ignore the existence of sizeable internal system variability but I propose that most such internal variability must be ocean sourced with pretty much every other factor dwarfed by what the oceans can do.
I suggest that the oceanic variability plus very short term chaotic variability can obscure the solar effect for much of the time but in due course the solar effects become dominant and prevail over periods such as the time between the MWP, LIA and today.
At times when there is a sudden pronounced step change in solar activity such as the transition to cycle 24 the solar effects swamp everything else and cannot easily be ignored.
So if the sun alters the vertical temperature profile of the atmosphere to alter surface pressure distribution to cause changes in jetstream zonality or meridionality the next two questions are:
Do more meridional jets cause an increase in cloudiness and albedo for overall system cooling as long as less solar energy gets into the oceans ?
Do more zonal jets cause a decrease in cloudiness and albedo for overall system warming as more solar energy gets into the oceans?
A history lesson for those interested. Boris Johnson was accused by Ken “the red” Livingstone, his left wing Labor Party opponent, of being “one of the few politicians in the world, and the only major candidate for Mayor, to support George Bush in opposing the Kyoto agreement.” This was as big an insult one could have hurled as we all know how popular George Bush and his decision to pull out of Kyoto were among regressive circles.
Actually, thinking about it. That quote from Galileo should also be an ode to Anthony and all the other brave folks who have given up their valuable time and money in order to restore sanity and scientific rigour to the world.
The last time we lost our sense of the value of true science, was the middle of the Roman Era, with the loss of the last of the great technicians, engineers and ‘scientists’ – Hero of Alexandria. That scientific depression lasted some 1500 years. We do not want a repeat of that Dark Age. And yet there are innumerable groups and organisations out there, who are more than prepared to take us back to another Dark Age.
For those unfamiliar with Hero of Alexandria, he created fire engines, slot machines, talking mechanical birds, automatic doors and a steam turbine back in the first century AD. The steam engine is number 50 in this list.
http://www.history.rochester.edu/steam/hero
He also made jugs for turning water into wine – which became rather famous in this era 😉
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So here is my personal thanks to Anthony and his team. And if you can afford to put a Christmas bonus in the TIP BOX on the top right, then please do. The Church of Scientific Rationality does not run on Hail Marys alone – as Archbishop Marchinkos once said (former president to the Vatican Bank).
A prosperous New Year to you all.