Today is the 35th anniversary of the sinking of the Great Lakes ore carrier, the Edmund Fitzgerald. The shipped was sunk by “The Witch of November”, a strong Lake Superior storm that often occurs around the same time each year. Given the anniversary and recent storm that set several all-time low pressure records, I thought I’d collect summaries of some of the most significant storms.
A frequent warning from people who see a quickly warming world is that the extra heat means extra water vapor, which provides energy for stronger storms. This post won’t really challenge that, I’d need a more complete records and various statistical methods. Look at this post more as weather lore than climate analysis. The recent storm may fit the “stronger storm” hypothesis, but some of the storms from decades ago were not taken lightly!
Many of these storms combine three elements. First, a Pacific storm moves into the northwest and continues just south of the Canadian border. Between mid-autumn and mid-winter, small systems can feed warm moist air from the Gulf of Mexico north and cold Canadian air south. When the Pacific storm moves into this environment, it can wrap both air masses together and “bomb out” into a major storm. Little glitches in the timing can have a big effect on the final strength, which is a good reason to be suspicious about looking for a global warming signal in the historical record. Too many things have to line up just right for a big storm
I thought I could compile this list with just storms between the Fitzgerald storm and the recent one, but it quickly became clear that some older storms were worse and caused greater damage. Of course, weather prediction was not as good as it is now, and some of these storm triggered significant improvements in getting out weather warnings. The human and shipping impacts I note below are poor items for historical comparison. Also, some of my data sources are unclear or categorize ship impacts differently.
The links below have the real meat about the storms. I’ve included a quote from the last link for each storm. Some of them would be difficult events to handle today.
1913 November: “Freshwater Fury” 968.5 mb = 28.59″, 19 ships sunk, 250 deaths
http://www.pointeauxbarqueslighthouse.org/preserve/shipwrecks/1913storm.cfm
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/stm_1913.php
“No lake master can recall in all his experience a storm of such unprecedented violence with such rapid changes in the direction of the wind and its gusts of such fearful speed! Storms ordinarily of that velocity do not last over four or five hours, but this storm raged for sixteen hours continuously at an average velocity of sixty miles per hour, with frequent spurts of seventy and over.
Obviously, with a wind of such long duration, the seas that were made were such that the lakes are not ordinarily acquainted with. The testimony of masters is that the waves were at least 35 feet high and followed each other in quick succession, three waves ordinarily coming one right after the other.
1940 November 11: “Armistice Day” 967 mb = 28.55″, 5 ships, 150 deaths
The summer and early autumn in 1940 were warm, as was the morning of the 11th. Many people were out duck hunting in the mild weather and were unprepared for the changes about to move in. By the end of the day wind made it dangerous for the hunters to move by canoe, some made it out the next day over thin ice, others died before then. Up to 27″ of snow fell in Minnesota.
The storm brought 49 deaths in Minnesota. It sank 5 ships and killed 66 on Lake Michigan. The west coast storm associated with this caused the collapse of “Galloping Gertie,” the bridge over the Tacoma Narrows that had been completed earlier in the year.
http://minnesota.publicradio.org/display/web/200011/10_steilm_blizzard-m/
http://www.carferries.com/armistice/
http://www.wsdot.wa.gov/tnbhistory/Connections/connections3.htm
1975 January 11 “Great Storm of 1975″ Canada: 961 mb = 28.38″, Duluth MN: 967 mb = 28.55” 45 deaths in the Midwest
Associated with this storm was a major tornado outbreak in southern states (yes, in January). In Sioux Falls, South Dakota it was called the biggest blizzard of the century. In Brainerd MN it was was compared to the Armistice Day storm and the ambulance service used a snowmobile with an enclosed trailer.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Storm_of_1975
http://www.brainerddispatch.com/history/pages/1024/1024_Blizzard_01111975.jpg
1975 Nov 10 “Edmund Fitzgerald” 976 mb = 28.83″ 29 deaths
This, of course, is the storm that sank the Edmund Fitzgerald, a great lakes ore freighter. These ships are narrow to fit the locks between the lakes and very long, the Fitzgerald was 729 ft (222 m) and the largest on the lakes for most of its life. Exactly why the Fitzgerald went down is not certain, but waves fore and aft may have let the middle buckle, as the ship is in two pieces on the lake floor. Whatever happened was so quick that there was no distress call. Their last communication with another ship nearby said they were holding their own.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/wxwise/fitz.html
http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/pubs/fulltext/2006/20060016.pdf
http://www.gordonlightfoot.com/wreckoftheedmundfitzgerald.shtml
The wind in the wires made a tattle-tale sound
and a wave broke over the railing.
And ev’ry man knew, as the captain did too
’twas the witch of November come stealin’.
The dawn came late and the breakfast had to wait
when the Gales of November came slashin’.
When afternoon came it was freezin’ rain
in the face of a hurricane west wind.
1978 Jan 26 “Great Blizzard of ’78” Cleveland: 958 mb = 28.28″, Canada: 950 mb = 28.05″
By some accounts, the entire winter of 77-78 was the worse since records began in the early 1800s, but this storm was by far the most severe of the 18 major storms. This affected an area further east than most of the storms mentioned here. Cleveland set its all time low air pressure, and most reports come from Michigan, Illinois, and Ohio.
This storm brought rain to the east coast which melted some of the record breaking snowfall from a storm a couple weeks earlier, and before New England’s “Blizzard of ’78.” When people talk of the storms of the late 1970s, this is one of the winters they’re talking about.
http://www.sws.uiuc.edu/pubdoc/RI/ISWSRI-88.pdf
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/stories/blizzard1978.php
While there are several contenders for the worst blizzard ever to hit the Great Lakes in relatively modern times (since 1870 when records began in Detroit), the immense and intense Blizzard of January 26-27th 1978 must rank at or near the top along with the Great White Hurricane of 1913 with its similar track and powerfulness.
1998 Nov 10-12 “Anniversary Storm” 963 mb = 28.43″
Duluth set records for lowest air pressure, precipitation, and snowfall.
Finding web pages about this is a bit of a challenge. Several mention it in passing while their main thrust is on the 1975 Edmund Fitzgerald storm 13 years before. January is 1998 featured the Great Ice Storm of ’98 which kept me busy through the spring chipping downed wood. In Canada that storm took out a line of high tension towers and disrupted power distribution for months.
The wisc.edu link has a nice animation of satellite photos of the this storm – and links to a track page that notes “uncanny similarity” to the 1975 storm.
http://climate.umn.edu/doc/journal/981110.htm
http://itg1.meteor.wisc.edu/wxwise/AckermanKnox/chap10/nov98.html
No quote, but the latter URL has a nice satellite image animation of the 1998 storm.
2010 Oct 26 “Chiclone” 954.9 mb = 28.20″
Strongest non-tropical storm on record in the non-coastal continental United States (whew!)
http://blogs.fox11online.com/2010/10/
http://climate.umn.edu/doc/journal/low_pressure_101026.htm
[This is a quote from a Duluth MN NWS statement originally issued in all capital letters.] An unusually intense low affected the state of Minnesota. At 513 PM CDT…the automated weather observing system at Bigfork Minnesota recorded a 954.96 millibar /28.20 inches/ pressure. This breaks the all time Minnesota state record for the lowest observed pressure.
The previous record was 962.6 mb set on November 10 1998 at Albert Lea and Austin in southern Minnesota. The record was initially broken shortly after 10 AM as the low passed by Aitkin Minnesota. However…the low continued to intensify into the afternoon.
A final note.
Trying to pull out a consistent history from widely disparate records for this has been a time consuming exercise. Accounts of one storm differ with the teller. One story might refer to the lowest pressure in the state, another mig refer to the lowest pressure in the US or Canada, some might even refer to the pressure described on a synoptic map but not recorded on a barometer.
Jeff Masters reported this list of the six lowest pressures recorded in the Great Lakes area:
1. Yesterday’s October 26, 2010 Superstorm (955 mb/28.20″)
2. Great Ohio Blizzard January 26, 1978 (958 mb/28.28″)
3. Armistice Day Storm November 11, 1940 (967 mb/28.55″)
4. November 10, 1998 storm (967 mb/28.55″)
5. White Hurricane of November 7 – 9, 1913 (968 mb/28.60″)
6. Edmund Fitzgerald Storm of November 10, 1975 (980 mb/28.95″)
However, he referred to a post from the Chicago NWS office from during the storm. Its list is:
Rank Event Date Minimum central pressure
1. Great Ohio Blizzard Jan 26, 1978 950 HPA / 28.05 inches
2. Current event Oct 26-27, 2010 962 HPA / 28.41 inches *
3. Armistice Day Storm Nov 11, 1940 967 HPA / 28.55 inches
Anniversary Storm Nov 10, 1998 967 HPA / 28.55 inches
4. Cyclone of 1913 Nov 7-9, 1913 968 HPA / 28.60 inches
(aka White Hurricane)
5. Edmund Fitzgerald Storm Nov 10, 1975 980 HPA / 28.95 inches
* current lowest minimum central pressure
Note how Masters uses an updated pressure reference for this year’s storm, which is fine, but he replaced the Canadian pressure in the 1978 storm with the Cleveland pressure thereby knocking 1978 into second place.
Perhaps the moral of the story is that Americans can wring their hands over storms getting worse, and Canadians can maintain their focus on melting permafrost and hungry Polar Bears.
I’ll just settle for using this as confirmation that it’s tough finding the “right” numbers.
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http://www.nflibrary.ca/nfplindex/show.asp?id=93031&b=1
One thing is for sure, CO2 has nothing to do with it.
Dan J says:
November 10, 2010 at 2:43 pm
Interesting. Thanks for that. I did not know that water take up was a problem with iron ore. With coal, especially of poor quality with much slack [dust], as is well known, it is extremely dangerous: for all the Dockies and their trimming: a lost art I imagine. Today most people can’t believe that bunker fires in coal fired steamships were quite common and nothing to to write home about.
As for a free surface a friend of mine, he is ex USN and was almost my counterpart, likes to take cruises on the insistence of his wife. Upon some such voyage in the Med the wife was taking a bath and discovered exactly what a free surface means when the vessel got hit by a sudden storm: as happens in the Med. I think she was about 30,000 tons: the gin palace that is not the wife.
Bit like the great lakes I imagine, when it really blows up by golly gosh it can be fierce.
Kindest Regards
Thank you for an interesting article. Last year I stayed at the Wellesly Club in Wellington and in their foyer they have a barometer graph of “Wahini Day”. I took a photo of it. The Wahini was an inter-island ferry working between NZ’s North and South Islands and it came ashore during a deep low. Many lives were lost, this was back in April ’68. The plot showed the low touching 28″ (pre-metric in NZ back then, so just under 950mb!).
Those of you who like to inhabit old second hand book stores should attempt to obtain a copy of “The Long Ships Passing”, by Walter Havighurst. It has great historical and eyewitness accounts of the 1913 and 1940 storms on the Lakes. It’s long been out of print but is well worth the effort to find a copy. A very good read and will give you a flavor of the events.
I just noticed that Amazon.com has a re-issued version of the book in paperback. It was written in 1942 and the author was born in 1901 so he lived through most of the storms he describes.
Yes. My thoughts exactly. A clearer case of cognitive dissonance would be hard to make.
40 degrees F daytime-nightime delta is not unheard of in the burbs. I think I remember even wider swings in the Nevada desert. I imagine UHI would tend to smooth this variability in the cities where most of the quack pop-scientists congregate.
I grew up in Sault Ste Marie and remember the storm quite well. We were all in shock when learning that such a massive ship (for that era) had sunk in the storm. To this day, it’s the worst storm I’ve experienced.
If I recall properly, after the wind turned to the northwest, it created a storm surge that flooded the northwest pier at the Soo Locks, which are normally 8-10 feet or so above the water. What a storm…
Eyes Wide Open:
My God! What a great video. I have not even thought about this stuff for a long time and seeing that ship being tossed around with the waves coming over the decks, I could almost feel it again. And I’ve always loved that GL song.
Ric Werme: It’s a great picture. You will note that the Fitz is loaded. Your article got me to looking for photos of the William A. Reiss, the oreboat I was on, and there were pictures out there. One in particular showed the ship unloaded.
Re: the hatch speculation: “there is little evidence that failure to secure the ship’s hatches caused the sinking and that it was a rogue wave instead“.
Just my own two cents: whenever we left port after loading or unloading, we were put to work as deckhands getting the hatches secured and placing heavy canvas tarpaulins over the hatches and securing them in place with numerous built in clamps and ties that held the tarps in place in the high winds and rain that were fairly routine. Everything was on hold for the deck crew until the hatches were secure and the old hands explained that if rain or waves managed to get into the holds, it could sink us real quick. The old timers all knew of guys they had worked with that had gone down due to water getting into the holds. They also talked about when hauling a load of grain, that if it got wet, it would expand, like popcorn and pop the hull from the inside. So, unless the Fitz had some poor deck security going on, which I doubt, especially knowing they were headed into a storm, I don’t believe it was due to the fault of the crew not covering the hatches. Everyone on those boats knew their lives were on the line if those hatches weren’t securely covered.
a jones says: The righting lever proves inadequate so the ship capsizes: often prompted by a shift in the cargo.
The hull breaks up almost always in torsion rather than hog or sag.
Bulk carriers are at greater risk than other designs and although little reported or noticed by the MSM the industry loses about one a week.
I only worked on one of these things for two months- I don’t know what a “righting lever” is or “hog and sag”, although I think I have an idea, as I remember seeing that thing flexing as the storm waves tossed it around. You could see it and feel it.
But your statement that “the industry loses about one a week” baffles me. You are talking about worldwide, maybe? That’s 5200 ships the size of two and a quarter football fields or bigger every ten years! This is correct? If so, you’re right, I don’t remember ever seeing anything about it. Do you have a link to more info on this? When I first read it I thought you were just talking about Great Lakes boats, and it’s hard to imagine the MSM not picking up on such a spectacular number here in the U.S. But even on a worldwide basis, those are pretty amazing numbers.
Be thankful it’s a rare occurence. There’s nothing between the gulf coast of Texas and the arctic circle but barbed wire. People who live outside of tornado alley and away from where hurricanes make landfall have no idea what violent weather is really like.
Thank you for posting this article Ric/Anthony. It was the the first time my wife looked at an entire WUWT thread with me. We enjoyed the video memories.
Weatherwise magazine did a pretty good cover story on this some (maybe 8) years ago.
nofate says:
November 11, 2010 at 9:30 am
Umm not quite, the loss of fifty ships or so a year is five hundred a decade not as you suggest over five thousand.
The figures are of course worldwide but exclude the Great Lakes and other inland waterways. So to put the losses into context at the peak of the recent boom over eight thousand bulkers were in service, the slump means that at least half are either laid up or gone for scrap.
At its peak the bulker fleet accounted for close to 45% of the merchant marine by deadweight, DWT, but please remember bulkers vary enormously ins size from the giants which rival plateau tankers at around 330.000 tonnes DWT to the babies, sometimes called handysize, at around 10,000 DWT. The smaller ones tend to be what is now called combination, that is they are designed to handle both bulk and packaged cargo such as bales.
Despite its enormous size you don’t hear much about the industry partly because it lacks glamour unlike say IT, and by and large is not a stockmarket matter other than for the publically quoted conglomerates who are tiny in terms of the overall business: so the best you might read in the business pages is about them now and then. In fact the backbone of the industry is the private owner, most of whom only own one ship, and together account for over fifty percent of the fleet. Like as not when you see a ship liveried in some conglomerate house colours it is on long term charter from a private owner. The same goes for tankers, container ships and the like.
This does not make for good copy in the MSM or indeed the business press so most information is in the industry’s own papers and journals, and as far as TInternet goes most of this is behind paywalls so I cannot direct you to any particular open sites.
But broadly put following on from the growth of the oil trade in the 1950’s and it’s pursuit of economy of scale with ever larger tankers the bulk trade saw a similar expansion beginning in the 1980’s and losses started to mount so that the IMO and the certification societies became concerned and new regulations are either in or coming into force. They do not cover ships built earlier.
The very high loss rate of a few years back has abated somewhat and was partly due to the boom when older ships were put back into service with inexperienced crews. Nobody in the western media was interested in the losses because most of these ships were owned and crewed in the far east and employed there.
So I hope this clear.
Kindest Regards
exNOAAman says:
November 11, 2010 at 6:32 pm
> Thank you for posting this article Ric/Anthony.
And my thanks to the commenters here for both kind words and great additions. I’m amazed at how well the WUWT community covers just about everything. I knew we did, but I’m still amazed.
> Weatherwise magazine did a pretty good cover story on this some (maybe 8) years ago.
This post exists largely because of that article. It’s
available (for $3.95). I was amazed at how little I knew about those storms and the ship despite growing up in northeast Ohio in the 1960s. I nearly paid for the article (despite having paid for it once through my subscription), but it was taking me so much time to splice everything else together that I wouldn’t have had time to use it.
a jones: thanks for the explanation. Don’t know where that extra zero came from. Fat fingers, I guess 🙂
What an absolutely fabulous post and thread! Thanks!
My wife grew up in Sault Ste. Marie, and she still remembers the storm that sank the Edmund Fitzgerald.
I remember several days without electricity or heat in the winter of ’78. Eventually, the family squeezed into the cab of our biggest tractor and relocated to our neighbour’s farm. They had an emergency generator for their pig barn and had run a line to the house. Also, a Weston Foods truck had got stuck in a ditch off the road near their house, so there was plenty to eat too!
The Great Ice Storm is fresh in my memory. I was in Ottawa. It wasn’t very cold, which was the main problem. The rain came down for hours on end and froze on the ground, coating everything with ice. I still remember the sky flashing blue as the nearby transformer station was arcing electricity, and limbs falling off of trees that could not bear the weight.
Hi Coops. I grew up in PN, too. Place gives me the creeps now, with that apalling windfarm above Turitea. John Cleese spent a night there once and announced that the town is designed to induce suicide. I enjoyed growing up there, though.
On any kind of global energy accounting, warm = stormy is hogwah. The tropics – poles contrast is highest during cooling, leading to stronger flows. The ’70s storms, e.g., were at the trough of the cooling that was fueling The Ice Age Cometh stories, remember? And the LIA was extremely climactically violent.
Fear cooling. Bless warmth!