by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
The NASA A-Train satellite constellation symposium I attended last week in New Orleans was in some sense a celebration of the wide variety of global satellite observations we are now collecting from Earth orbit.
This really is the Golden Age in satellite data collection of the global climate system. While a few A-Train satellites are still to be launched, other older satellite assets in the A-Train are now operating well past their planned lifetimes.
There are no plans to replace many of these one-of-a-kind instruments, so much of what we will learn in the coming years will have to come from the analysis of previously collected data.
Unfortunately — at least in my opinion — the existence of this superb national resource depended upon convincing congress almost 2 decades ago that manmade global warming was a clear and present danger to the world.
Manmade Global Warming as the Justification
Since I believe the majority of what we now view as “climate change” is just part of a natural cycle in the climate system, I argued from the outset that NASA should be also selling “Mission to Planet Earth” as a way to better prepare ourselves for natural climate change — something that history tells us has indeed occurred, and we can be assured will occur again.
But behind the scenes there was a strong push for policy changes that even most of the scientists involved supported — ultimately culminating in the governmental control over how much and the kinds of energy sources humanity would be allowed to use in the future.
Cap and Trade, as well as potential regulation of carbon dioxide emissions by the EPA, are the fruits of the labor of politicians, governmental representatives, bureaucrats, the United Nations, and activist scientists who have used global warming as an excuse to accomplish policy goals that would have never been accomplished on their own merits.
Of course, most who speak out on this issue continue to point to the supposed “scientific consensus” on global warming as the justification, but those of us who knew the players also knew of these other motives.
I am often asked, “So, are you saying there is a conspiracy here?”
No, because the ultimate goals were not a secret. Just a bunch of elitists carrying out plans that the politicians supported — with continuing promises of congressional funding for research that those politicians knew would support Job #1 of government — to stay needed by the people. Many of the scientists involved are just along for a ride on the gravy train. Even I ride that train.
The elitism clearly shows through in the behavior of those who speak out publicly on the need for humanity to change its Earth-destroying ways: Al Gore, James Cameron, Harrison Ford, Julia Roberts, RFK, Jr.
These people apparently believe they are God’s gift to humanity. How else can we explain that they do not see the hypocrisy the rest of the nation sees in their behavior?
Unfortunately, I saw this attitude on a smaller scale at the New Orleans meeting. There are many new, young scientists now joining the ranks. They are being mentored by the older scientists who helped spread the alarm concerning manmade global warming. And they will be rewarded for playing the game.
Or will they?
The Times They Are A-Changin’
How is it that government agencies long ago decided to put all their eggs in the man-made global warming basket? Why have the movers and shakers around the world ignored natural climate change — even going so far as to claim it does not exist?
The only reason I can think of again goes back to their elitist beliefs and desired policy outcomes. The belief that a better-educated few should be allowed power over the less educated masses. That government knows better than the people do.
Tomorrow’s election is widely viewed as a referendum on the proper role of government in people’s lives. There is no question that the founders of our country intended there to be maximum of freedom on the part of individuals and the states, while placing strong limits on the role of the federal government.
Just read the Declaration of Independence if you want to see how pi$!ed off the settlers of the original colonies became at the King of England over his intrusion into their personal affairs.
And global warming legislation is now quite possibly the best opportunity the governments of the world have to increase the role of government in people’s lives.
The Basic Economics of Individual Freedom
Yet, many Americans believe that government can more equitably distribute the wealth generated by a country. This is a laudable goal on the face of it.
Unfortunately, history has taught us that trying to impose equality of outcomes only serves to make people equally miserable.
I like to think that I know something about basic economics. It was the subject of the 6th chapter in my first book –Climate Confusion — which received a nice blurb on the jacket from noted economist Walter Williams.
One of the reasons I am willing to stick my neck out and inform people of the uncertain nature of government-approved global warming science is because the basic economics behind any governmental (or environmental extremist) attempts to restrict personal choice in energy use will end up killing people.
In fact, it already has.
The biggest threat to humanity is poverty. Wealthier is healthier. When governments make energy more expensive, or environmental organizations pressure foreign countries to not build hydroelectric dams, poor people die.
Those already living on the edge are pushed over the edge. Energy is required for everything we do, and artificially raising the price of energy cannot help but destroy wealth generation.
If these elitists really were interested in the poor, they would be doing everything they could to help individuals take control of their own economic destinies. One billion people in the world still do not have electricity.
Worried about population growth? Then encourage the generation of wealth. It is the poor of the world that cause global population growth. The wealthy countries of the world have close to zero population growth.
Of course the main argument against this view is “sustainability”. Can the Earth sustain even more people consuming natural resources?
Interesting how those who ask the question have already gotten theirs, and now want to prevent others from doing the same.
But I would ask, can the world sustain the poverty-stricken? Poor countries have had most of their trees cut down. Imagine if global society collapsed and billions of people had to make do on their own with what they could scavenge from nature.
Now THAT would lead to a pollution problem.
What ensures sustainability is free markets. As natural resources of one type become more scarce, their price goes up, which makes alternatives more attractive. People are incentivized to develop new answers to old technological problems. This is why fossil fuels will never be used up. At some point, they simply will become too expensive to extract.
Mass production by factories and corporations should be embraced, rather than derided. It represents the most efficient way of providing goods and services. Waste is minimized because it hurts competitiveness.
But What About Equality?
Equality of outcomes is an illusion. It can never be achieved…unless we totally destroy the people’s motivation to make a better life for themselves.
A vibrant economy is what maximizes the tax revenue collected by the government. The two largest periods of growth in tax revenue collected by the government occurred after two major tax-CUTTING initiatives: JFK’s in the early 1960’s, and Reagan’s in the early 1980’s.
If you really want to help the poor, then help the country grow economically. Want to make sure the poor are taken care of? Then encourage businesses to grow, which will lead to more jobs. Economic activity is what is needed, and since the tax revenue the government receives is a “piece of the action”, more action means more money for government programs.
And whether we like it or not, the only way to ensure this growth happens is to give business owners and entrepreneurs some hope that their risk-taking and creativity will pay off for them personally in the future.
Yes, in the process, some people will get rich. A few will get obscenely rich. But this only occurs because so many consumers want the goods and services those rich few can offer them.
Call it a necessary evil, if you must. But it is, indeed, necessary. The end result will be more money for the poor, not less.
A New Fight Begins Tomorrow
The basic economics and desire to help the poor that have motivated me to speak out in the last 20 years on global warming policy will, starting tomorrow, be the subject of a national debate regarding the proper role of government in helping its people.
Tomorrow’s election is only the start. From then on, education about the practical importance of economic freedom will be central to that debate.
There is no question that our country has an unsustainable growth in our yearly budget deficits, and our total national debt is staggering. Everyone agrees this must change.
And reducing government expenditures must, of course, be part of the debate.
But increasing tax revenue to help support those programs is ALSO part of the solution. And since the only demonstrated (and sustainable)way to accomplish this is to grow the economy, it requires personal economic freedom.
So, what is the primary role of government in all this? In my opinion, it is two-fold: (1) make sure people play fair, and (2) get out of the way.
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Curious George-
Great point : “You’re correct of course, re: the “elite” point of view. But it is not a new phenomenon. “What is best for Caesar is also best for Rome.” Or words to that effect.”
The problem is the Caesar here is the Koch Brothers, the folks funding Rove, and the rest of the billionaires behind the tea party and Fox News. Ever wonder why the tea party positions are exactly the ones the billionaires want? Read the agenda, follow the money – the elites are where you do not expect to find them…
Murdoch is arguably more powerful than any president, he is the billionaire behind Fox News…
[Duplicated post. Robt]
Brad,
I don’t resent those who pay less taxes than I do. I do resent people saying that because I’m successful I don’t pay my fair share.
That being said, I think our government spends too much. I’d start by eliminating the Speaker of the House’s airplane, cutting a bunch of congressional staff and expenses and then start looking at reducing government subsidies and entitlements of all sorts.
I don’t mind paying my fair share in taxes, I just think it’s the governments responsibility to spend the taxpayers’ Monet wisely.
Monet = money
Must have had an artistic moment!
“And since the only demonstrated (and sustainable)way to accomplish this is to grow the economy, it requires personal economic freedom.”
Distributed wealth is driven by CHEAP RELIABLE ENERGY.
The US and Europe too is moving away from this economic model while China & India embrace it. Cheap Reliable Energy creates real wealth and opportunity. The Industrial Revolution to modern day was built on cheap reliable energy. Now the world wide recession is hitting deep in the US & EU as we destroy jobs & manufacturing by adding huge fake environmental financial skimming subsidies to energy costs. Our only hope is Science, thorium reactors maybe, but the idea of wind turbines and solar panels being the future is liking going back to the Stone Age.
Cheap reliable energy. Why do politicians and scientists not get this?????????????
MichaeljGardner-
Add up the things you want to cut, I bet they dont touch the deficit. We should have a higher tax rate over 250K, and another over 1 million. We should also legalize gambling and pot and tax the crap out of them – it would make the streets safer to as it would take billions out of organized crime pockets.
Are you really upset about paying 3% of what you make over the highest income bracket bracket? Not even 3% on the whole thing? Honestly, I probably would not notic if Bush tax cuts went away, but putting them back would do more for the deficit than any cut.
Also, remeber that healthcare saved money on the deficit – paying healthcare for gov employees, Medicare and Medicaid is one of the highest gov costs…but if we take that away we live in a country where folks go bankrupt when they get sick, from non-preventable stuff like breast cancer…do you want to live in that country…for you saving 3% of what you make over 250K/year? You are kidding, are you really that selfish?
Brad
Ever wonder why the tea party positions are exactly the ones the billionaires want?
———–
Billionaires like Soros?
“”””” Ross Barton says:
November 1, 2010 at 3:54 pm
That line about Reagan cutting taxes and tax revenue soaring has been disproven time and again. People who cite this claim forget population growth and inflation during his presidency. Here are the annual rates of growth of real revenue per capita over several decades:
1973-1979: 2.7%
1979-1990: 1.8%
1990-2000: 3.2%
2000-2007: ~0.0%
These figures are compliments of Prof. Paul Krugman, 2009 Nobel prize winner in economics. As you can see, real revenue growth as a result of Reagan’s tax cuts was poor. Well I think you will find the seeds of inflation were actually sowed during the Carter administration; and during the Reagan Administration, where he actually agreed to a tax increase (the 1986 tax act) the Congress promised spending cuts if he went along. He did; they didn’t.
Housing prices in California doubled in four years following the passage of the 1986 tax act; and as a direct result of the provisions of that act. Nothing happened to the construction of a house in California, that would double its value.
If the Congress doesn’t stop spending; other than what the Constitution authorises it to do, then that takes money away from the industrial base which alone can increase real wealth. When some people can get for nothing; what other people can get with money; then the money becomes of no value.
@ur momisugly brad says:
November 1, 2010 at 4:41 pm
RE: Koch Brothers, the folks funding Rove, and the rest of the billionaires behind the tea party and Fox News. Ever wonder why the tea party positions are exactly the ones the billionaires want? Read the agenda, follow the money – the elites are where you do not expect to find them…
Caesar also had his coterie of hangers on and court jesters. Where there are coat tails there will be riders. And challengers, of course. The age old game of King of the Hill. Such has been the way of the world forever.
brad says:
November 1, 2010 at 4:41 pm
Murdoch is arguably more powerful than any president, he is Fox News…
Pick your poison…
Rupert Murdoch or George Soros?
Michaeljgardner says:
November 1, 2010 at 4:12 pm
“Wouldn’t our exports increase if the dollar lost value relative to other currencies? Wouldn’t that also make imports from China more expensive, thus decreasing our trade deficit?”
The US needs huge amounts of inflation – not to make its products competitive but to bring down the real value of the debt (leaving the creditors empty-handed). Yes, in the process American products would become more competitive, and China would have to rely more on their own consumption and maybe on European and emerging markets for their products, but they absolutely need to find a way out of their dollar dependency – because at the moment, they form a de facto currency union with the US and can’t stop the US from printing money, bringing the Renminbi down together with the Dollar.
If the inflation process can be controlled, it’s the easy way out of the public debt problem, reducing the value of dollar based assets in the process. That’s what i meant with “taxation through inflation” – your assets lose value, an effect equivalent to a tax.
It’s one of the usual ways to get out of the public debt trap for a state. It will of course be a global power shift because of the size and importance of the US economy.
Soros on the left (who sat out this election, BTW) vs the Koch Brothers, Target, Fox News, Halliburton, big oil, Murdoch, the coal industry, big polluters, and Wall Street.
Who is on your side little guy, pick…
That line about Reagan cutting taxes and tax revenue soaring has been disproven time and again.
If you include inflation, revenue was up 28%. If you include population increase (including many poor immigrants), then it is still 18% per capita. Huge economic growth. And if that immigration had occurred without a tax cut, I hate to imagine how bad things would have been.
That’s after a marginal rate cut from 70% to 28%. Those are the facts.
Also, try running the federal revenue numbers under Bush — year by year — and matching them with the tax cuts (marginal rate and capital gains, indexed for inflation), then try and tell me how tax cuts caused the deficit.
This is not a “liberal vs. conservative thing”. It’s a “what is, IS” thing. Politics has (read “ought to have”) nothing to do with it.
Show me any extended period in human history when the gap between rich and poor widened and I’ll show you good times for the poor (The Rise of Egypt. The Glory that was Greece. The Grandeur that was Rome. The Han Dynasty. The Renaissance. The Enlightenment. The Industrial Revolution. The information Age.)
Contrast this with any extended period when the gap between rich and poor narrowed and I’ll show you catastrophic times for the poor. (The fall of the Middle Kingdom. The sack of Rome. The Dark Ages. The 100-Years’ War. The Mongol Hordes. The 30-Years’ War. The Panic of 1837 (1891, 1897, etc.). World War I. The Great Depression.)
P.S., not just for the poor. For everybody.
Why is it that today’s neoliberals insist (very loudly and pejoratively) on policies that are HORRIBLE for the poor? (The answers scare me.)
When are my brother liberals going to take a sanity pill and come back to me?
Brad,
do you want to live in that country…for you saving 3% of what you make over 250K/year? You are kidding, are you really that selfish?
I only stated that whatever taxes I paid should be spent wisely, and that people shouldn’t be told to resent me because I didn’t pay more. I’m not sure where you coming up with me being selfish.
I will take your suggestion and add up the spending cuts that I would make and see where that gets me. Can I also add revenue to the government for oil drilled domestically?
Sorry, have to sign off now. Thanks for replying.
George E. Smith-
Ca house prices went up in the late 80’s, and then they crashed and dropped for about a decade. Kinda like the lack of regulation under Bush nationally…who needs that?
http://mysite.verizon.net/vzeqrguz/housingbubble/los_angeles.html
@ur momisugly brad.
PS: I could also list a few on the “other side”. Shall we start with George Soros? Or perhaps Bill Gates?
brad says:
November 1, 2010 at 4:34 pm
latitude-
What are talking about? [snip]
==================================
Calling people, that disagree with him, names, brad.
and our stupid president did it again right before another election
Dr Spencer writes:
Reminded me of this at COP-15: click
“”””” Here are the annual rates of growth of real revenue per capita over several decades:
1973-1979: 2.7%
1979-1990: 1.8%
1990-2000: 3.2%
2000-2007: ~0.0% “””””
So why did you stop the most recent decade way back in 2007; this is nearly the end of 2010; so where’s the current data.
Everybody agrees that Reagan spent massive amounts of money rebuilding the US military from basically a junkyard; to where it finally had some credibility; and that turns out to be the very first task assigned tot he US Government (National Defense; actually the providing for).
Did uber economic genius Krugman factor out the economic drag on the US economy caused by the new age of terrorism ushered in by 9-11-2001, and the economic consequences of dealing with that; and I’m not even including the two wars that the Congress declared; just the new pains endured by industry; like the travel inductry for example.
By the way; since we are concerned more about climate than weather, What would your expert economists say is the average (real) long term growth rate of the economy since say 1900 ?
Just asking; a number that comes to mind; well a number I heard from a Stanford Economist circa 1975 for that long term annual growth rate was 2.5%.
Now they are not going to post my argument winning thoughts – way to go! Who needs truth or argument on a science site? I guess you are proving once again this isn’t about science, but true belief…
[Reply: Five minutes elapsed between your last comment and this one, and your last comment was posted before you posted this one. What is your complaint? ~dbs, mod.]
Damn, Roy! That’s a decent piece of writing.
Sorry mod, noted several comments with later time stamps – maybe I am feeling a bit attacked on the site, but, I asked for it…
latitude-
Where did he do that? Not saying he didn’t, but I did not see it…need context.
Just as along as your not pinning all the US economic woes on global warming policy. In reality the problem is deeper than a would be carbon tax (a tax that I strongly oppose).
The problem with our “free market” is that it is not a fair market by any stretch of the imagination. China is undercutting our manufacturing industries because they pay people $15 a week. So in a globalized free market Americans are unlikely to compete with slave labor. The net result of all those cheap electronics we are buying is to destroy the true costs of production and ultimately our economies (and lifestyles) go down the drain.
Unless you advocate huge tariffs on imported goods (so they reflect our economic well-being), I have no sympathy with your free market mechanisms, since they are now working against us…..
Ross Barton complains that Reagan’s tax cuts failed to spur growth from 1979 through 1982 when they took effect. I suppose the economy should have known the tax cuts were coming and expanded under Carter?
CuriousGeorge-
When has Bill Gates been into politics? Most of his money goes for childhood vaccinations and mosquito nets…