Guest post by Thomas Fuller
(Okay. Based on the assumption that overly cryptic titles of blog posts need to be explained early: Old Testament prophets predicting doom gave rise to the term ‘Jeremiahs’ after one prominent example, and their doom-laden screeds even got the term ‘jeremiads.’ Michael Tobis is lamenting the failure of climate activism of late and predicting horrible things will happen–very much like the Jeremiahs of old.
Tobis is a Research Scientist Associate (in practice, mostly a software engineer) who very rarely writes about climate science, preferring to pronounce on the sins and errors of journalists, bloggers and politicians. Instead of writing about what he knows, he writes about what angers him. He may well be an expert on climate science. He is not at all an expert on media criticism.
However, Tobis mostly sits crouched on the lilypad of his own weblog, and his posts are frequently written as if they were being croaked into the night, waiting vainly for a response.
So Three Dog Night was very wise when they wrote that Jeremiah Was a Bullfrog.)
Cap and Trade is dead. So says Joe Romm, so says the NY Times, so says the Atlantic.
Okay, what is next?
The wrong answer is C) Nothing. But thanks for playing our game. What will happen is that we will reframe the problem in a way that may be more acceptable to more people. That’s because restating the problem is much easier than readjusting the solutions so many have been working on. So we will start talking more about adaptation than mitigation, about regional resilience than global mean temperatures, about heat in the oceans rather than CO2 in the atmosphere. (All of which are fine with me.)
The world is not going to walk away from global warming quickly–even if many would like to run. Defeat doesn’t work like that in diplomacy. Cancun will still take place, options will still be floated, proposals bruited, etc.
But the surest sign that the air has gone out of the balloon is the decision to retain Rajendra Pachauri, as some gloomy Banquo’s ghost. If the IPCC had anything that was both new and real to offer, they’d have got a new guy in there.
So the diplomats will not acknowledge the failure of diplomacy. The mainstream media, having spilled more ink than an army of squids promoting the need to change our climate, will have to wait a respectable length of time before dropping the hot potato in favor of Lady Gaga or watching paint dry, whichever is more entertaining.
Domestic politicians won’t let go of their clubs until after the November elections in the USA, although the UK may be moving a bit more quickly. But being on the right side of the climate change issue now means no more than being on the wrong side. Next up–immigration reform?
We diehards on the blogs will still talk about it–we have a lot invested in the subject. I’ve noticed the range of subjects on climate blogs is widening a bit, with Keith Kloor reintroducing anthropology and archaeology, and Michael Tobis getting more local than global.
But despite this all giving discussions the air of a post-game show, it isn’t over. Not the actual changes to the climate, not the politics, not the blame game, and eventually not the policies to deal with it.
We still have climate and it will still change. We may be a bit less arrogant about our ability to predict those changes and assign the causes, but change there still will be.
Those who don’t like the changes will still blame human activities, although if they’re smart they might start reading Roger Pielke Sr. and attributing changes to more than just CO2.
People are still re-fighting the Vietnam War. Heck, there are people still re-fighting the Civil War. We’re not going to let this go any time soon.
Especially because of the twin peaks of Energy As An Issue and The Developing Countries As An Issue. Because we are the way we are, we will think we have to solve both. And because we are the way we are, we will think we have to solve both at the same time with the same tools, even though actions to make progress on one of them will make things more difficult for the other. Conserve energy, make the developing countries suffer. Help the developing countries, make the energy crisis worse.
And when we get frustrated, maybe we’ll pine for the easy days of fighting over climate change.
There are things we can do to protect against further climate change, improve energy security and smooth the path for developing countries. The conservative American Enterprise Institute and The Brookings Institute have teamed up with the Breakthrough Institute to propose a post-partisan solution (PDF), mostly based on research. It’d probably work, too. But the problem with post-partisan proposals is that they would put partisans out of a job, so of course left and right are ganging up on these people.
Their proposals are important, but it probably looks as though their timing stinks. This would have seemed really useful six months ago. But now it seems like they’re showing up with their party gifts just as everybody’s cleaning up and getting ready to go home.
But that’s an illusion. The climate / energy wars will last another generation. This is just a pause of exhaustion. We will change names, politicians, bloggers and the nuances of our positions and get ready for Round Three. This is, after all, the title fight to end all title fights.
But more on that another time. Meanwhile, Joy to the World!
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BTW, I’ll bet most readers didn’t know this:
“Joy to the World” is a song written by Hoyt Axton, and made famous by the band Three Dog Night. – Anthony
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Phil:
Yeah, if it wouldn’t be such a silly goal youv’e deceitful been told to accept.
@fuller
“protect against future climate change”
This presupposes that change is undesirable. As fas as I can determine the climate changes brought about by increased CO2 (if that is the cause, which is questionable) are desirable. The warming is happening predominantly in the higher latitudes of the northern hemisphere where it opens up more arable land and lengthens growing seasons. Contrary to urban warming legend it appears to be causing no increase in extreme weather events which is exactly what one might expect as the temperature difference between equator and pole decreases. Also contrary to urban warming legend there is no increase in floods or droughts. The only thing predicted by CAGW narrators is rising sea level and that’s certainly far from catastrophic at 1-2 feet per century.
What we need to protect against is foolishly throwing economic prosperity at something that isn’t a problem. Write that down.
Ref – u.k.(us) says:
October 16, 2010 at 3:04 pm
Thanks! Need to remember that. Averaging 14,154 fleas per dog, that’s a lot of body heat.
________________________________
Ref – Philip Thomas says:
October 16, 2010 at 3:08 pm
Ref – R. de Haan says:
October 16, 2010 at 3:54 pm
It pays to listen, it costs nothing, and can be quite profitable on occassion. He is NOT “The Problem”. People who would MAKE you do something that they want you to do are “The Problem”. People who do not care what you think or have to say are also a big part of the problem. He is reasonable. He offers balance. He is not calling you names or demeaning your intelligence. He is not deleating your comments. He only wants the truth and the freedom to make up his own mind and vote the way he sees best. When he says something that he thinks is reasonable, he appreciates honest feedback. Psssssst… he IS one of us. Think about it!
cedarhill says:
October 17, 2010 at 3:35 am
I’ll see your Abe Lincoln quote “fool some of the people some of the time” and raise you a quote from the 16th century father of modern skepticism:
“We seek and offer ourselves to be gulled.”
Michel Eyquem, seigneur de Montaigne (1533–1592)
Book iii. Chap. xi. Of Cripples
Regarding the derivation of “Three Dog Night”, Layne Blanchard refers to the US version, but alternative versions suggest indigenous Australians sleeping with dingos (attributed to the girlfriend of a band member reading a magazine article) and Inuit sleeping with Huskies. Given that one of the most common topics on WUWT is the Arctic, I prefer the Inuit version, and in fact when I saw the title of the post I thought it did indeed relate to low temperatures in the Arctic.
kwik says:
October 17, 2010 at 2:01 am
“Like…. Energy Crisis? What energy Crisis?”
A lot of people felt that oil at $150/bbl oil was an energy crisis. That probably had as much or more to do with the recent and prolonged economic downturn as anything else IMO.
I wish to join the ever-growing group of “What energy crisis?” supporters. Fuller, you’ll get the blame for the next scam if you’re not more careful with your words. I’m also starting a group called Stop the Bloody Scaremongering!!! (SBS). can also be read as Stop the BS (the relation of crap).
BTW, mods, if you’re married to a Welsh person, ‘bloody’ doesn’t count.
PS Thanks, CuriousGeorge.
Layne Blanchard says:
October 16, 2010 at 7:24 pm
Well, I knew it was made famous by Three Dog Night. I used to sing along and I think I had the albumn. didn’t know about Hoyt Axton.
Question for Thomas:
Let’s imagine CO2 truly is a problem for the climate. Why not look at all products made today, all materials, and determine a transition to Thorium /batteries?
The problem today is finding a solution to quick fillup/recharge, and cost. For home heating, and many other energy uses, what is wrong with carbon capture for the next 50 years (until everyone realizes CO2 has no relevant role in climate) or until transition to Thorium is complete?
Why are environmental groups picketing and litigating every power plant and refinery in America?
If this is TRULY a scientific issue and warming advocates TRULY beieve CO2 causes harm, why do they impede ALL solutions other than reduced consumption?
They impede ALL solutions other than reduced consumption because they do not want to prevent CO2 emissions – they want to reduce consumption and CO2 is a useful reason.
From ‘The Population Bomb’ from Paul Ehrlich to all the other ‘mankind is doomed’ movements there is the same underlying mantra that: it is mankind that is ruining the planet we should return to living a ‘sustainable’ existence in the forests. Together with the plot of attempting to warn a population that is just not listening that is seen in a multiplicity of ‘disaster movies’ such as Jaws and Volcano, Deep Impact etc etc. and in even older stories like Sodom and Gomorrah
This seems to be a psychological need in some people to have a return to Eden and have to fight the ignorant masses to persuade them of the error of their ways.
Tom Fuller,
Thanks for you entertaining Bullfrog theme. I liked it.
I do not have time today to go through all the comments, so my following comment may be redundant & you may have already addressed it.
My comment is on your statement:
Adaptation to what? Nature? To the sharing the planet with other humans?
We know already how to do that.
John
Anton aus Tirol says:
October 17, 2010 at 2:18 am
“This may sound paranoid, and there may not be enough evidence (yet) to justify it. Call it a hypothesis–one which calls for investigation. To say it again: where did the meme of AGW come from and how did it manage to spread so powerfully?”
Goes back to theories by Fourier and Arrhenius, was later picked up by Keeling who observed rising CO2 levels. From there, it turned into the cornerstone of modern anti-industrialism as promoted by Greens, mainly via
Stockholm 1972
UNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON THE HUMAN ENVIRONMENT
http://www.unep.org/Documents.Multilingual/Default.asp?DocumentID=97
1972:
“37. The concept of “no growth” could not be a viable policy for any society, but it was necessary to rethink the traditional concepts of the basic purposes of growth.
”
from
http://www.unep.org/Documents.Multilingual/Default.asp?DocumentID=97&ArticleID=1497&l=en
So, you see, the anti-growth movement is at least 38 years old now. The fear of CO2 became their most effective weapon.
Why are they against growth? Technology is power. Take technology away, and people become powerless. Powerless people are easily controlled. Noth Korea, the Khmer Rouge’s Cambodia. The ideal society of the Left.
well, I have never been to Spain, I should have listened to my mama, cause she told me not to come…what does it matter?
got me again Anthony, you know I love old school.
oh yeah, when should I start worrying about bringing in my porch plants? Last year I tarried, and they all got burned! Got a ETA on Jack Frost?
“At least we’ve got to the point where only a very, very, very few will actually go buy that bridge or send money to Nigeria.”
Yes, largely because of the Internet. And because of the Internet, it’s gonna be double-tough for the enviromental-sham artists in the future, also. Of course, the Left is trying to get control of the Internet….
Anton aus Tirol says:
October 17, 2010 at 2:18 am
Yes, what Anton said. I believe that he statists will morph and present new assaults on freedom. We need blogs investigating issues along the lines described by Anton. The first topic should be government policies about awards of government grants and a history and political analysis of the relevant granting agencies.
On the matter of energy crisis, I have to agree with Mr Fuller. I can understand that those of you who are younger may see it otherwise, but I suggest you listen to the voice of experience on this matter.
I am now 50 years of age, and can attest that I have significantly less energy than I did at age 20. This decline in energy availability correlates well to global warming. Though correlation is not causation, I’m advised by my medical practitioner that I should expect to run out of energy completely in the next few decades.
I’ve also conducted certain energy based experiments using my offspring. 20 years ago I threw a snowball at offspring number 1, then six years of age, and knocked him over. I recently repeated the experiment using the same offspring. The distance was near identical and I took care to ensure that the snowball was of reasonable approximation in terms of size and density. To my utter shock, the snowball had nearly no effect, confirming that my energy level is in dangerous decline.
It was my intent to examine the snowball itself in more detail, the plan being to cut it open and at least count its rings. Alas, the opportunity was lost as offspring number one saw fit to sit on my chest and wash my face with it.
At least my wife didn’t scream STOP THAT and hit me with a broom this time, but that is small recompense for my energy crisis.
To predict what comes next, simply understand this telling point: The “problems” come and go, but the “solutions” are always the same.
For global warming, the fix involves expansion of government, higher taxes, expensive subsidies for things that can’t stand on their own merit, bureaucratic control of energy use, property rights and, ultimately, speech.
For global cooling, the fix involves expansion of government, higher taxes, expensive subsidies for things that can’t stand on their own merit, bureaucratic control of energy use, property rights and, ultimately, speech.
For oil supply disruptions, the fix involves expansion of government, higher taxes, expensive subsidies for things that can’t stand on their own merit, bureaucratic control of energy use, property rights and, ultimately, speech.
You get the idea: aspiring totalitarians will always find an excuse.
Robinson – A pound is a little steep . Maybe a soon – to – be hyperinflated dollar .
OG says:
October 16, 2010 at 4:23 pm
“”The war that will last a generation is the one between the developed world and the developing world, in which developed-world NGO’s are the main antagonists against the world’s poor. Our ‘aid’ agencies’ belief that countries can rise from poverty by becoming dependent on handouts from developed nations has been failing for generations, but nobody seems to have noticed.””
__________Reply;
Giving handouts to those who you would trust enough to let into your home or office unsupervised, is what people do for the homeless panhandlers.
They seem to be everywhere but invisible, so no permanent progress is made.
On the international scale undeveloped countries are just that, lacking in the basic infrastructure to generate the commerce needed to become stable enough to be able to attract the capital investment from the international corporations and banking systems, that only want to profit by being able to utilize the cheap labor or other local resources available.
All new international business growth investment is funneled into areas where there is an advantage to be gained from investing. The basic infrastructure of an available set of conditions needs to be in place for that to happen. Transportation, exploitable natural resources, cheap trainable usable labor force, water, agriculture, food production capabilities able to meet more than basic needs.
In the past concentrations of Capitalism took the form of governments with borders, that ran on constructive sets of laws that allowed it to prosper and grow.
In the current global economy the profit motive is interred into international corporations and their associated banking systems, it is only a matter of time before the monopolies that result from normal business practices, form as a result and the “international political, monetary, and trade deficits”=”merger wars” that are currently going on will be over.
What are now felt as the manipulations of the governments found inside borders, by the fragmented global economic competition, that results in the political motivations to con the taxpayers and consumers into supporting the whole scheme, is the underlying game the system and all consumers are scripted into.
Those peoples in undeveloped countries are sidelined because they are not structurally configured to be viable players, due to some lack of critical components in the basic requirements to attract serious investment, and as such are only given handouts to prevent them from further gross deterioration, see above or ie;
(Transportation, exploitable natural resources, cheap trainable usable labor force, water, agriculture, food production capabilities able to meet more than basic needs.)
These are the basic things to work on, starting with a local government structure that puts these goals ahead of, their own search for controlling the governed people through having regulative power. Because the resultant bureaucratic regulation aspect, only slows down growth, depletes the resources, and the drive of the population to be as productive as they can be.
The NGO’s you mention are the base of the problems, funding their efforts is counterproductive. The dependency on the hand outs (welfare system) stops the development process faster than anything.
Nobody pays attention to the non-players in a game, only the most active are focused on as relevant, which begets the politics and rent seeking behavior, that produces the resultant corruption, that just disrupts, diverts, and stagnates the potential productivity
In the long run it matters not the left/right bias of the teams, it is the concerted efforts and effects of the composite number of (the global population) players, toward the goal of increasing the infrastructure and efficiency of the global system that makes progress possible for all.
wealth, economic growth, and plant growth depend on available nutrients and positive growth conditions to thrive, spend your time and resources “building the soil” not cutting weeds.
In some ways Tom is right. Not in his lukewarmist beliefs (at least in my opinion), but in his assessment that this struggle is not over and won’t be for a long time.
For those who have followed the issue for some time, the climategate revelations were not new. Nor were the various exposures of IPCC hype and exaggeration. What has occurred is that these facts were widely disseminated and could not be contained by various elites that were profiting from them.
The elites however are still running the show and they have had thirty years or more to stack the deck in terms of policy and regulations that have increased their power over us.
The defeat of the insane AGW movement and the reds and environmentalists who control it will require much more blood than the paper cuts suffered by Gore, Jones, and Mann. This is why it is imperative that Issa, Barton, and Cuccinelli (and more – many more) proceed in a very big public way to deconstruct and demolish the leaders of the AGW movement.
And this cannot be the end either. The science societies, academia, the EPA and its Euro and UN kin must also be taken to task and purged of all the idiots who, behind the scenes, will continue to pursue the AGW agenda so long as they sit in authority.
This is the task that needs to done. It will take a generation to accomplish – or longer if we try an do it without shedding blood.
in the UK we have a government that is about to emasculate our defence capability but remains committed to spending half the annual defence budget of achieving a low carbon economy. Don’t tell me that climate change is dead.
I recently met a former member of Three Dog Night. He is an active skeptic on climate change. Just so you know the rest of the story.
Tom Fuller,
“Because we are the way we are, we will think we have to solve both. And because we are the way we are, we will think we have to solve both at the same time with the same tools, even though actions to make progress on one of them will make things more difficult for the other. ”
As Tonto said to the Lone Ranger upon learning they were surrounded by hostile Indians… “What do you mean “we” pale face?”
As a self described true believing liberal, I think it is fair to say that you speak for other progressives who “think [you] will have to solve both,” and I am equally sure you all believe that “[you] have to solve both at the same time with the same tools.” And not surprisingly, I suspect that tool will rely on government control and planning of various sorts.
I think it is going to be fascinating, as CAGW alarmism fades into oblivion, what will happen to the truce between liberal and conservative skeptics/lukewarmers. I wonder how many will be able to apply their objections to group think, ad hominems, media bias etc. in the climate context, to the identical issues in the broader political realm.
Is it just me or is there a spooky resemblance between Axton and Tobis?
Ice age a comin’ … four dog night!
He always had some mighty fine whine.