I guess with Climate change enlightenment was fun while it lasted. But now it’s dead (George Monbiot) there’s not much for those modelers and supercomputers at NCAR to do. So why not model parting the Red Sea? Beats making golden calves I suppose.
From the National Center for Atmospheric Research:
Parting the waters: Computer modeling applies physics to Red Sea escape route
BOULDER—The biblical account of the parting of the Red Sea has inspired and mystified people for millennia. A new computer modeling study by researchers at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the University of Colorado at Boulder (CU) shows how the movement of wind as described in the book of Exodus could have parted the waters.
The computer simulations show that a strong east wind, blowing overnight, could have pushed water back at a bend where an ancient river is believed to have merged with a coastal lagoon along the Mediterranean Sea. With the water pushed back into both waterways, a land bridge would have opened at the bend, enabling people to walk across exposed mud flats to safety. As soon as the wind died down, the waters would have rushed back in.
The study is intended to present a possible scenario of events that are said to have taken place more than 3,000 years ago, although experts are uncertain whether they actually occurred. The research was based on a reconstruction of the likely locations and depths of Nile delta waterways, which have shifted considerably over time.
“The simulations match fairly closely with the account in Exodus,” says Carl Drews of NCAR, the lead author. “The parting of the waters can be understood through fluid dynamics. The wind moves the water in a way that’s in accordance with physical laws, creating a safe passage with water on two sides and then abruptly allowing the water to rush back in.”
The study is part of a larger research project by Drews into the impacts of winds on water depths, including the extent to which Pacific Ocean typhoons can drive storm surges. By pinpointing a possible site south of the Mediterranean Sea for the crossing, the study also could be of benefit to experts seeking to research whether such an event ever took place. Archeologists and Egyptologists have found little direct evidence to substantiate many of the events described in Exodus.
The work, published in the online journal, PLoS ONE, arose out of Drews’ master’s thesis in atmospheric and oceanic sciences at CU. The computing time and other resources were supported by the National Science Foundation.
Wind on the water
The Exodus account describes Moses and the fleeing Israelites trapped between the Pharaoh’s advancing chariots and a body of water that has been variously translated as the Red Sea or the Sea of Reeds. In a divine miracle, the account continues, a mighty east wind blows all night, splitting the waters and leaving a passage of dry land with walls of water on both sides. The Israelites are able to flee to the other shore. But when the Pharaoh’s army attempts to pursue them in the morning, the waters rush back and drown the soldiers.
Scientists from time to time have tried to study whether the parting of the waters, one of the famous miracles in the Bible, can also be understood through natural processes. Some have speculated about a tsunami, which would have caused waters to retreat and advance rapidly. But such an event would not have caused the gradual overnight divide of the waters as described in the Bible, nor would it necessarily have been associated with winds.
Other researchers have focused on a phenomenon known as “wind setdown,” in which a particularly strong and persistent wind can lower water levels in one area while piling up water downwind. Wind setdowns, which are the opposite of storm surges, have been widely documented, including an event in the Nile delta in the 19th century when a powerful wind pushed away about five feet of water and exposed dry land.
A previous computer modeling study into the Red Sea crossing by a pair of Russian researchers, Naum Voltzinger and Alexei Androsov, found that winds blowing from the northwest at minimal hurricane force (74 miles per hour) could, in theory, have exposed an underwater reef near the modern-day Suez Canal. This would have enabled people to walk across. The Russian study built on earlier work by oceanographers Doron Nof of Florida State University and Nathan Paldor of Hebrew University of Jerusalem that looked at the possible role of wind setdown.
The new study, by Drews and CU oceanographer Weiqing Han, found that a reef would have had to be entirely flat for the water to drain off in 12 hours. A more realistic reef with lower and deeper sections would have retained channels that would have been difficult to wade through. In addition, Drews and Han were skeptical that refugees could have crossed during nearly hurricane-force winds.
Reconstructing ancient topography
Studying maps of the ancient topography of the Nile delta, the researchers found an alternative site for the crossing about 75 miles north of the Suez reef and just south of the Mediterranean Sea. Although there are uncertainties about the waterways of the time, some oceanographers believe that an ancient branch of the Nile River flowed into a coastal lagoon then known as the Lake of Tanis. The two waterways would have come together to form a U-shaped curve.
An extensive analysis of archeological records, satellite measurements, and current-day maps enabled the research team to estimate the water flow and depth that may have existed 3,000 years ago. Drews and Han then used a specialized ocean computer model to simulate the impact of an overnight wind at that site.
They found that a wind of 63 miles an hour, lasting for 12 hours, would have pushed back waters estimated to be six feet deep. This would have exposed mud flats for four hours, creating a dry passage about 2 to 2.5 miles long and 3 miles wide. The water would be pushed back into both the lake and the channel of the river, creating barriers of water on both sides of newly exposed mud flats.
As soon as the winds stopped, the waters would come rushing back, much like a tidal bore. Anyone still on the mud flats would be at risk of drowning.
The set of 14 computer model simulations also showed that dry land could have been exposed in two nearby sites during a windstorm from the east. However, those sites contained only a single body of water and the wind would have pushed the water to one side rather than creating a dry passage through two areas of water.
“People have always been fascinated by this Exodus story, wondering if it comes from historical facts,” Drews says. “What this study shows is that the description of the waters parting indeed has a basis in physical laws.”
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Now, if we can just get them to turn their attention to the more recent portion of the Holocene, say 1000 years ago to present, we might be able to get another good movie line out of it:
Let the name of Mann be stricken from every book and tablet, stricken from all pylons and obelisks, stricken from every monument of AGW. Let the name of Mann be unheard and unspoken, erased from the memory of men for all time.
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Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic (Arthur C. Clarke). Isaac Asimov speculated whether magic is necessarily indistinguishable from sufficiently advanced technology.
I would like to point out that we knew (as in we absolutely, no chance of being wrong, KNEW) for about two decades that lack of fiber in the diet caused certain cancers. It was known so well, that a novice medical research team decided to get a freeby article out of it by doing a study to “prove” it. To their surprise, they disproved it.
Now, are the stories in the Bible just fantasy? Many people say they are. Are the stories told about Troy just fantasy? Many people used to say they were, until someone actually did some research on old texts, did a lot of research on old maps, looked at a bunch of ruins and sea coasts, and then discovered the ancient city of Troy. The gap between fantasy and fact, between “magic” and science, is sometimes a very small gap.
Just because research may be based on a question raised from a Bible story, does that make it frivolous? Might we not learn something, somewhere along the way to thinking about the problem, setting up experiments and computer models, looking for similar stories? Because, if we must avoid all possible connections between Bible stories and science, must we avoid studying chariots, just because those are mentioned in a Bible story?
As Tolkien wrote:
‘Do we walk in legends or on the green earth in the daylight?’
‘A man may do both,’ said Aragorn. ‘For not we but those who come after will make the legends of our time. The green earth, say you? That is a mighty matter of legend, though you tread it under the light of day!’
>>grumpy old man.
>>were the Haibru there?
The answer is that there were two exoduses, as Manetho clearly states.
The first exodus was the great exodus caused by the eruption of Thera … Including the water-parting tsunami, the fall of ash, the darkness and the plagues. This was the Hyksos exodus.
The second exodus was the much smaller exodus of ‘maimed priests and lepers’. Possibly something to do with Pharaoh Akhenaton. As Manetho says, (paraphrased) “their leader was a priest called Osarseph (Son of Osiris) who led them to Jerusalem and changed his name to Moses”.
The name Moses simply means ‘Son of …’, like the names Ramesses and Tuthmoses. Unfortunately, we are not given the god-name, for the biblical Moses (Yahmoses is a possibility, and this is the same name as the pharaoh Ahmoses.)
Excuse me but am I the only one to notice that this “study” is in violation of the USA Constitution! NCAR (The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation) group is in violation of the Separation of Crutch and State since NCAR used government funds for it on government paid for equipment!!!
Or am I just steaming up my igloo in the great white north a bit too much? Why would it not be a violation?
“The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is a federally funded research and development center devoted to service, research and education in the atmospheric and related sciences. NCAR’s mission is to understand the behavior of the atmosphere and related physical, biological and social systems; to support, enhance and extend the capabilities of the university community and the broader scientific community – nationally and internationally; and to foster transfer of knowledge and technology for the betterment of life on Earth. The National Science Foundation is NCAR’s primary sponsor, with significant additional support provided by other U.S. government agencies, other national governments and the private sector.”
http://ncar.ucar.edu/about-ncar
Why is NCAR using federal funds to conduct religious research?
I’ve never understood the desire to explain “miracles” as having natural explanations. Surely, if you’re religious then you just believe that “God did it” – no natural explanation is required. And if you’re non-religious, then surely all these stories have no more validity to you than Grimms Fairy Tales.
For heaven’s sake, mods, lighten up. The article looks to be tongue-in cheek, and that invites all sorts of responses. Personally, I found some of them fascinating.
“The parting of the waters described in the book of Exodus that enabled Moses and the Israelites to escape the pharaoh’s army is possible, computer simulations run by researchers at the National Center for Atmospheric Research and the University of Colorado at Boulder show.
To test the theory that the biblical account may have depicted actual events, the researchers studied maps of the region, archaeological records and satellite measurements to find a topographical feature where such an event might have been possible. They settled on an area south of the Mediterranean Sea where some oceanographers say a branch of the Nile River drained into what was called the Lake of Tanis, a coastal lagoon 3,000 years ago.
The computer model shows a 63 mph east wind blowing across the area and its 6-feet-deep waters for 12 hours. In the scenario, the wind pushed back the waters into both the lake and the channel of the river, exposing a mud flat 2 to 2.5 miles long and 3 miles wide for four hours. As the winds died down, the waters quickly flowed back in and in theory would have drowned anyone on the mud flat.
“The simulations match fairly closely with the account in Exodus,” said Carl Drews of NCAR, the lead author of the study published in the online journal PLoS ONE. (Read the full study)
“The parting of the waters can be understood through fluid dynamics. The wind moves the water in a way that’s in accordance with physical laws, creating a safe passage with water on two sides and then abruptly allowing the water to rush back in.””
http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2010/09/21/where-did-waters-part-for-moses-not-where-you-think/
It sure looks like a federally funded organization, NCAR, has spend federal funds on a religious study in violation of the Separation of Crutch and State.
“Funding: The authors are grateful to the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR/NCAR) for tuition and computational support for the lead author, Carl Drews, and for support by the Office of Naval Research (ONR) N00014-07-1-0413. Weiqing Han is also supported by NASA Ocean Vector Wind Science Team 1283568 and NSF CAREER OCE 0847605. The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation. Any opinions, findings and conclusions or recommendations expressed in the publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.”
http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0012481
OK, stop the presses:
“Competing interests: The lead author has a web site, theistic-evolution.com, that addresses Christian faith and biological evolution. The Red Sea crossing is mentioned there briefly. The present study treats the Exodus 14 narrative as an interesting and ancient story of uncertain origin.”
Ok, so clearly I am correct. This is a potentially serious violation of the US Constitutional Principle of The Separation of Church and State.
Man, if the Models can even explain the Red Sea parting naturally, what could possibly be wrong with the null hypotheses in explaining all the events otherwise allegedly linked to CO2AGW, which itself now seems even less likely given further proof of the true omnipotence of the Models in generating so many equally “true” scenarios?
That’s what they do with your money…….bad kids playing in working time.
“Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof”
Ease up people, unless you are just deliberately being silly. In what way does studying wind effects cause Congress to pass a law about establishing a religion? Or am I missing something here? If I study chariot construction, and chariots are mentioned in the bible, am I trying to influence Congress to pass laws about establishing a religion? Think about what you are making a correlation between.
It is almost like you are making a correlation between carbon dioxide and the earth warming to unbearable temperatures. Now, THAT would just be silly.
Lighten up, pwl.
As a posted above said: Can we suddenly not study chariots, because they are in the Bible?
I’ve put the relevant information about the NCAR violation into an article linked below. Oh, note it wasn’t just funded by NCAR but also by NASA, the NSF and even the Navy’s ONR!!!
“Federally Funded NCAR, NASA, NSF & ONR Study Violates Separation of Church and State.”
http://pathstoknowledge.net/2010/09/22/federally-funded-ncar-nasa-nsf-onr-study-violates-separation-of-church-and-state
This research does what good research should do, it boldly asks “Is it possible?”
Thankfully research such as this is not constrained as to the source the question arises from. Imagine how many medical treatments and drugs we would have missed out on solely because they came from shamanism (the practices of healers of a tribal religion).
“Wow, this looks promising. Now all we need is federal research funding…”
“Nope, not going to happen.”
“What? But this could be a treatment for cancer, and these other diseases as well.”
“Sorry, can’t risk confirming any part of any religion as being true. We have separation of church and state. Trust me, science is better off for not knowing about this.”
Yup, what a sad world that would be…
A few years ago there was a sustained offshore wind in the Gulf of Mexico, off Louisiana, which resulted in the sea level being depressed by 5 feet. A large tanker in the centre of a buoyed channel, pilot on board, when proceeding at 12 touched bottom. The tanker broke it’s back. The US Army Core of Engineers confirmed the water level reduction in their papers handed to the court over following a disclosure request. There were no attendant wall-like cliffs of water on either side of the channel. It would appear that sea water level depression consequential upon offshore winds occurs from time to time.
The Crossing of the Red Sea, which was also preceded by offshore winds, in this case Easterly, was unique in being accompanied by wall-like cliffs of water on either side.
The fact that it cannot be explained doesn’t mean it couldn’t have happened.
The Big Bang cannot be explained, yet it did happen.
Didn’t it?
Well wasn’t it Aaron who let the natives go wild and model golden calves.
So if the water was only six feet deep; why did they need to part the sea at all; and how come all of those following Arabs drowned; they must have been pretty good swimmers; you would have to be to survive swimming in the nile with all of those nile Crocodiles.
Do they have a video of this model in operation; because I would just love to see somebody produce a nice laminar flow effect like that. Have you ever tried sweeping a puddle of water off a flat roof (oxymoron) ? No way can you keep up with the front braking up and sneaking back no matter how big a broom you’ve got.
I’d rather believe that a surprise near miss passing asterplanetoid happened to get in phase with the moon and created an extra six feet of tidal range to give them a one shot deal for a few hours.
But a wind of that capability would have kicked up the mother of all sandstorms; and they never would have been able to get out in such a blow.
So how much of my tax dollars did this nonsense study waste.
Great movie – but best get the great man’s name right in the photo caption! It is Charlton, with no “e”.
Wow, so these “scientists” are suggesting that this wind event, which has never actually been observed to have happened in the real world, yet still isn’t an impossibility, just “happened” to have occurred at the precise time it was needed to in order to save the fleeing Israelites. That would be a miracle indeed.
Yep, looks like pwl is onto something, regarding a possible violation of the separation of Church and State.
“”” pwl says:
September 22, 2010 at 11:29 am
OK, stop the presses:
“Competing interests: The lead author has a web site, theistic-evolution.com, that addresses Christian faith and biological evolution. The Red Sea crossing is mentioned there briefly. The present study treats the Exodus 14 narrative as an interesting and ancient story of uncertain origin.”
Ok, so clearly I am correct. This is a potentially serious violation of the US Constitutional Principle of The Separation of Church and State. “””
Well this is a potentially serious violation of reality; nowhere in the US Constitution is there any mention of any separation of Church and State. It simply says that ” Congress shall make NO LAWS respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; …. or words to that effect. My apologies if I have cited this incorrectly.
So if these public employee modellers happen to be wasting time on modelling some hypothesis that happens to have some connection with some ancient writings of uncertain origin; who has the authority to prohibit them from doing that (on religious grounds) ; although they could have their pay docked for fooling around on the taxpayer’s nickel. The Constitution places no priority on the making of NO LAWS versus; the prevention of free exercise; and if these clowns did their study for religious reasons that is a protected activity; but the taxpayer’s shouldn’t be hit with the tab.
And before you go storming off on some unfounded assumption; be advised that I consider religion to be the single greatest scourge that ever inflicted the human race; as evidenced by that lunatic piece of garbage by the name of Amandajihad that is flapping off his mouth at the United Nations; while enjoying the very protection of that Constitutional prohibition against restriction of free exercise.
My opinions do not conflict with my belief in the preservation of that right of free exercise.
Eerh…, they are not exactly “scientists”. From the paper in PLoS:
“Competing interests: The lead author has a web site, theistic-evolution.com, that addresses Christian faith and biological evolution. The Red Sea crossing is mentioned there briefly. The present study treats the Exodus 14 narrative as an interesting and ancient story of uncertain origin.”
When we go to that website, we realize what kind of “scientists” they are:
http://www.theistic-evolution.com/
Very bad for PLoS ONE…
Source:
Drews C, Han W (2010) Dynamics of Wind Setdown at Suez and the Eastern Nile Delta. PLoS ONE 5(8): e12481. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0012481
At http://www.theistic-evolution.com/ we find…
Young Earth Creationism debunked, Intelligent Design objected to, and the scientific theory of evolution defended and affirmed. I approve.
That such can be done without adding in that God does not exist, as if evolution is a scientific disproving of the possible existence, seems to irritate certain people for some reason.
Godgate! Who knew?
Paging moonbat…
George E. Smith says:
September 22, 2010 at 1:11 pm
nowhere in the US Constitution is there any mention of any separation of Church and State.
True, however;
“Jeffries and Ryan (2001) argue that the modern concept of separation of church and state dates from the mid-twentieth century rulings of the Supreme Court. The central point, they argue, was a constitutional ban against aid to religious schools, followed by a later ban on religious observance in public education. Jeffries and Ryan argue that these two propositions – that public aid should not go to religious schools and that public schools should not be religious – make up the separationist position of the modern Establishment Clause.”
While there is certainly room for disagreement about what the founding fathers intended, we do have precedent. There could be a legal case here, but I doubt anyone would bother pursuing it.
Peter Melia says:
September 22, 2010 at 1:02 pm
“A few years ago there was a sustained offshore wind in the Gulf of Mexico, off Louisiana, which resulted in the sea level being depressed by 5 feet.
The Crossing of the Red Sea, which was also preceded by offshore winds, in this case Easterly, was unique in being accompanied by wall-like cliffs of water on either side. The fact that it cannot be explained doesn’t mean it couldn’t have happened.”
Lets get the facts straight. Nowhere does it say: “a 5 foot wall of water”. All it says is that there was A wall of water to left and right as they crossed, and that “the waters returned, and covered (8762) the chariots,”
All we need for these conditions to be met is that the water level is rising (due to change in wind, tide, land level, tsunami, etc.) at a rate which causes a tidal surge. For an extreme example see the seven bore here:-http://mhweather.co.uk/yabb/YaBB.pl?num=1174487676
Or read about The spectacle of the tide
“The speed of the currents often exceeds one metre per second.
When the sea comes in, a 25 km wide wave rushes in between the headlands of Cancale and Granville. The bore, about 50 cm high, roars in, but does not move forward at the same speed everywhere. There is therefore a great danger of being encircled if you should adventure out into the Bay alone.”
(http://www.baie-mont-saint-michel.fr/en/the_phenomenon_of_the_tides.php?lang=en)
There are many places where it is well known that the tide comes in “at the speed of a galloping horse” and this commonly causes fatalities such as at Morecombe bay (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Morecambe_Bay_cockling_disaster).
I really don’t know where people are getting this idea that the land was “dry”. The Exodus story uses a single word meaning: “dry land” as opposed to sea – it means terra firma – land you can stand on without being washed away by water!
When people imagine that the ancients were talking about a totally dry path, it is the urban car-driving never been where there isn’t a bridge, never taken their socks off to to get to the other side of a river let alone waded across … types who think that “dry land” means bone-dry (like inside your car) and not “dry land”/terra firma as in having feet on something solid and not having to swim.
Finally, let’s not forget that the difference between crossing safely and getting killed can be a matter of a few inches of water. The following picture neatly shows the way just a couple of inches of water almost totally obscure the road across to Holy Island off the coast of Britain. http://www.freefoto.com/preview/9908-06-3?ffid=9908-06-3
If you look closely you can just about see the white lines marking the centre of the road, in fact the car in the picture is perfectly safe … they are only going through a couple of inches of water … but if the poles at the side were not there and they veered just a few feet to either side … they would be in the drink, and once you have lost your way on the path and with a rising tide it is only a matter of minutes before the strength of the tide will be enough to knock any pedestrian off their feet and then they will be hundreds of meters from the shore and being driven out to sea very very quickly.
And the most likely place for this Exodus story is on a narrow straight of land between two large bodies of water. We are told one is the Red Sea (as explained above it is the Red Sea), the other is the Great and Small bitter lakes on the Suez canal which even at todays elevated land levels together have an area of 250km2.
We also know that the Egyptians built a canal linking the bitter lakes to the Nile so that … “The reliefs of the Punt expedition under Hatshepsut 1470 BC depict seagoing vessels carrying the expeditionary force returning from Punt. This has given rise to the suggestion that, at the time, a navigable link existed between the Red Sea and the Nile.[19][20] Evidence seems to indicate its existence by the 13th century BC during the time of Ramesses II.” (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suez_Canal#2nd_millennium_BC)
However by the time of the Greek writers in the 4th century BC this link was no longer feasible. So, some time between 1200BC and 400BC the Bitter lakes became separated from the Red Sea. This means the exodus appears in the same time frame as the separation of the Bitter Lakes from the Red Sea … or to put it another way, during the period when the straits of Suez would have seen some enormous tidal surges.
Tidal range in North of Red sea = 0.6m
Current size of bitter lakes = 250km2
Total volume of water = 150million cubic meters
If all this water flowed through a 1km wide straight 0.6m deep in 12hours it would need to travel at 20km/hr (13mph).
What the accounts tell us is that:
“And the waters returned , and covered the chariots, and the horsemen, and all the host of Pharaoh that came into the sea after them; there remained not so much as one of them.
But the children of Israel walked upon dry land in the midst of the sea; and the waters were a wall unto them on their right hand, and on their left.”
Note: the egyptians were engulfed at the same time as the Israelites were walking with a “wall of sea” to left and right.
What this seems to suggest is that the crossing was by a reef of higher ground surrounded by large tidal flats. The Israelites crossed the central stream at low tide (with favourable winds), but were then aware of the racing tidal surges on either side (this appears as a wall of white waves streaming across the flats).
The unlucky Egyptians tried to cross the deepest part of the straight after the point when the tide was beginning to race, the path that was obvious just a few minutes before was quickly obscured by a confusing swirl of water, they would have lost their way ventured into deeper water – perhaps being bogged down in soft sand dare I say it “quick sand”, there would have been strong flowing water, so that those that could not turn back were quickly swept from the reef that allowed safe passage across the straight into deeper water where the waters quickly engulfed them.
Even for those who were familiar with the tidal race at the mouth of the bitter lakes, the phenomena would have been quite terrifying. For Egyptians and Israelites who knew nothing other than the none-tides of the Mediterranean, which I’m sure are no where near strong enough for the tidal races that produce “walls of water” (aka a line of breaking waves at the front of the incoming tide) … it must have looked like an act of god.