I guess with Climate change enlightenment was fun while it lasted. But now it’s dead (George Monbiot) there’s not much for those modelers and supercomputers at NCAR to do. So why not model parting the Red Sea? Beats making golden calves I suppose.
From the National Center for Atmospheric Research:
Parting the waters: Computer modeling applies physics to Red Sea escape route
BOULDER—The biblical account of the parting of the Red Sea has inspired and mystified people for millennia. A new computer modeling study by researchers at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the University of Colorado at Boulder (CU) shows how the movement of wind as described in the book of Exodus could have parted the waters.
The computer simulations show that a strong east wind, blowing overnight, could have pushed water back at a bend where an ancient river is believed to have merged with a coastal lagoon along the Mediterranean Sea. With the water pushed back into both waterways, a land bridge would have opened at the bend, enabling people to walk across exposed mud flats to safety. As soon as the wind died down, the waters would have rushed back in.
The study is intended to present a possible scenario of events that are said to have taken place more than 3,000 years ago, although experts are uncertain whether they actually occurred. The research was based on a reconstruction of the likely locations and depths of Nile delta waterways, which have shifted considerably over time.
“The simulations match fairly closely with the account in Exodus,” says Carl Drews of NCAR, the lead author. “The parting of the waters can be understood through fluid dynamics. The wind moves the water in a way that’s in accordance with physical laws, creating a safe passage with water on two sides and then abruptly allowing the water to rush back in.”
The study is part of a larger research project by Drews into the impacts of winds on water depths, including the extent to which Pacific Ocean typhoons can drive storm surges. By pinpointing a possible site south of the Mediterranean Sea for the crossing, the study also could be of benefit to experts seeking to research whether such an event ever took place. Archeologists and Egyptologists have found little direct evidence to substantiate many of the events described in Exodus.
The work, published in the online journal, PLoS ONE, arose out of Drews’ master’s thesis in atmospheric and oceanic sciences at CU. The computing time and other resources were supported by the National Science Foundation.
Wind on the water
The Exodus account describes Moses and the fleeing Israelites trapped between the Pharaoh’s advancing chariots and a body of water that has been variously translated as the Red Sea or the Sea of Reeds. In a divine miracle, the account continues, a mighty east wind blows all night, splitting the waters and leaving a passage of dry land with walls of water on both sides. The Israelites are able to flee to the other shore. But when the Pharaoh’s army attempts to pursue them in the morning, the waters rush back and drown the soldiers.
Scientists from time to time have tried to study whether the parting of the waters, one of the famous miracles in the Bible, can also be understood through natural processes. Some have speculated about a tsunami, which would have caused waters to retreat and advance rapidly. But such an event would not have caused the gradual overnight divide of the waters as described in the Bible, nor would it necessarily have been associated with winds.
Other researchers have focused on a phenomenon known as “wind setdown,” in which a particularly strong and persistent wind can lower water levels in one area while piling up water downwind. Wind setdowns, which are the opposite of storm surges, have been widely documented, including an event in the Nile delta in the 19th century when a powerful wind pushed away about five feet of water and exposed dry land.
A previous computer modeling study into the Red Sea crossing by a pair of Russian researchers, Naum Voltzinger and Alexei Androsov, found that winds blowing from the northwest at minimal hurricane force (74 miles per hour) could, in theory, have exposed an underwater reef near the modern-day Suez Canal. This would have enabled people to walk across. The Russian study built on earlier work by oceanographers Doron Nof of Florida State University and Nathan Paldor of Hebrew University of Jerusalem that looked at the possible role of wind setdown.
The new study, by Drews and CU oceanographer Weiqing Han, found that a reef would have had to be entirely flat for the water to drain off in 12 hours. A more realistic reef with lower and deeper sections would have retained channels that would have been difficult to wade through. In addition, Drews and Han were skeptical that refugees could have crossed during nearly hurricane-force winds.
Reconstructing ancient topography
Studying maps of the ancient topography of the Nile delta, the researchers found an alternative site for the crossing about 75 miles north of the Suez reef and just south of the Mediterranean Sea. Although there are uncertainties about the waterways of the time, some oceanographers believe that an ancient branch of the Nile River flowed into a coastal lagoon then known as the Lake of Tanis. The two waterways would have come together to form a U-shaped curve.
An extensive analysis of archeological records, satellite measurements, and current-day maps enabled the research team to estimate the water flow and depth that may have existed 3,000 years ago. Drews and Han then used a specialized ocean computer model to simulate the impact of an overnight wind at that site.
They found that a wind of 63 miles an hour, lasting for 12 hours, would have pushed back waters estimated to be six feet deep. This would have exposed mud flats for four hours, creating a dry passage about 2 to 2.5 miles long and 3 miles wide. The water would be pushed back into both the lake and the channel of the river, creating barriers of water on both sides of newly exposed mud flats.
As soon as the winds stopped, the waters would come rushing back, much like a tidal bore. Anyone still on the mud flats would be at risk of drowning.
The set of 14 computer model simulations also showed that dry land could have been exposed in two nearby sites during a windstorm from the east. However, those sites contained only a single body of water and the wind would have pushed the water to one side rather than creating a dry passage through two areas of water.
“People have always been fascinated by this Exodus story, wondering if it comes from historical facts,” Drews says. “What this study shows is that the description of the waters parting indeed has a basis in physical laws.”
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Now, if we can just get them to turn their attention to the more recent portion of the Holocene, say 1000 years ago to present, we might be able to get another good movie line out of it:
Let the name of Mann be stricken from every book and tablet, stricken from all pylons and obelisks, stricken from every monument of AGW. Let the name of Mann be unheard and unspoken, erased from the memory of men for all time.
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And if the parting of the waters was the tsunami (which then rushed back in to consume the Egyptians), then the biblical exodus must be one and the same as the Hyksos exodus.
Here are some facts about the Historical Hyksos exodus from Egypt…
The people were circumcised
They wore long curly side-locks of hair
There was three days of storms and darkness
There was a civil war with the southern Egyptians
500,000 people were ejected from Egypt on an exodus
They started from Pi Ramesse
They went to Jerusalem
Sound familiar? But this is real history, taken from the archaeology, the accounts of Manetho, and the Tempest Stele of Pharaoh Amose I.
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Triple point behavior. The wind initiated a Bernoulli effect which lowered the air pressure.
Weird to find such research State-financed. Usually it’s lone individuals.
Interesting to see miracles mentioned here. My experience, as a scientist, is that miracles do happen, and many records of such can be found, if you look in appropriate places.
But the Red Sea, or rather (correctly) the Sea of Reeds… that’s another story. By far the best account of that which I’ve come across is that it was a —-Tsunami—- from the eruption of Thera / Santorini. It’s within the range of possibility for the time frame. First the sea recedes, then it encroaches, as we know.
Like a previous poster, I think we can again call b[snip] on climate modelling by reference to historical materials.
I believe it is widely agreed in academic historians’ circles (one might even say a “concsensus”) that the Sea of Reeds was a tidal swamp that Moses knew well. Twice every day there was an opportunity for a light body of people to move across it if guided properly.
Meanwhile a heavy force, includng chariots etc. bungling unguided into a rising tide would have been bogged and then swamped by the rising tide.
Yet another example of how detached for reality and wider evidence climate science is, to the point the make some stupid claims. They are in their own little bubble of ignorance.
Just as a follow up. Historical materials also indicate that Moses planned this escape and hence it is would have had to have been a regular phenomenon, rather than an extraordinary event.
For those interested, Moses led the Israelite tribes into a virtual trap, hemmed in by the Sea of Reeds to the East and Egypt and its army to the West. He then created a a misdirection and a diversion under the cover of darkness which alllowed the escape over the Sea of Reeds.
He didn’t go to all that trouble and risk on the remote chance that a volcanic eruption or unusal storm system might make the Sea passable.
Old news is often the best news isn’t it.
For those of you who’d like some light relief from faith-bashing, IPCC hooting, agency mocking and general cynicism, here’s a book from the late 90’s which was fascinating in it’s day and might provide a few more subjects for redundant climate scientists to follow up on.
http://www.amazon.co.uk/product-reviews/0380726335/ref=dp_top_cm_cr_acr_txt?ie=UTF8&showViewpoints=1
For all the sneers today, there may also be some gasps in the pipeline in our future.
[REPLY: The intent of the topic was about the science and not so much religious aspects. Lets keep it that way… bl57~mod]
@ur momisugly Lucy Skywalker [September 22, 2010 at 2:18 am]:
Weird to find such research State-financed. Usually it’s lone individuals.
According to Immanuel Velikovsky [WORLDS IN COLLISION – Doubleday, 1950]:
“The Israelites were on the shore of the Sea of Passage at the climax of the cataclysm. The name ‘Jam Suf’ is generally rendered as ‘Red Sea’; the Passage is supposed to have taken place either at the Gulf of Suez or at Akaba Gulf of the Red Sea, but sometimes the site of the Passage is identified as one of the inner lakes on the route from Suez to the Mediterranean. It is argued that ‘suf’ means ‘reed’ (papyrus reed), and since papyrus reed does not grow in salt water, Jam Suf must have been a lagoon of fresh water…But the name of the Sea of the Passage – Jam Suf – is derived not from ‘reed’ but from ‘hurricane,’ ‘suf’, ‘sufa’, in Hebrew. I(n Egyptian the Red Sea is called ‘shari’, which signifies the ‘sea of percussion’ (‘mare percussionis’) or the ‘sea of the stroke’ or ‘of the disaster’…”
In this, Velikovsky seems to be in the right – though he put the actual parting of the waters down to a hurricane caused by the Great Global Climate Disruptor of an errant comet, thus being the result of Astronomic (rather than Anthropogenic – or Theogenic, come to that) Climate Disruption.
Another miracle from NSIDC:-
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
The image clearly shows the Northwest Passage open for shipping. Yesterday evening the luxury cruise ship Titanica 2 sailed the passage unaided and anchored for two hours for the 1000 passengers on board to take photographs of the Polar Bear and Artic Penguins.
Five battleships and four cruisers from the Russin federation are presently sailing in an easterly direction and have been for two hours. Commander Gregor Ivanitch said this is great for the boys on board as we will soon reach the Motherland two weeks earlier than normal.
Believe it or not i saw a talk in an applied math. department in 1999 on this. The speaker, whose name now eludes me (Matkowski?), cited a wind driven parting of the read sea as the first recorded instance of the observation of a soliton, a type of non-linear wave which would have resulted when the waters rushed back in.
What is this proclivity of some ‘scientists’ who attempt to explain religious phenomena? Why? They are getting waaayyy too much of our tax money! Concentrate on the issues at hand…’for the love of God!’ 🙂
IMO either you believe or you don’t (sound familiar?). There is no need for science to explain miracles due to the fact that only non-believers will accept the explanation and believers will scoff, so what changes with the “scientific” proof: nothing. Be scientists; not some “smart-guy” that seems to want to prove God doesn’t exist or isn’t necessary. It just serves to make 97% of the global population not want to believe anything you say.
There is sooooo much anecdotal evidence over the past centuries for super/supra-natural phenomena it seems counterproductive for science (at this time at least), IMHO, to even consider treading that slippery slope. What if God is a manifestation of our collective conciousness utilizing zero-point energy to apprehend our manifest destiny? So? Why don’t they attempt to model what we don’t know about the world…it’s about just as relevant.
Or maybe, and this is a real stretch, figure out where the sunspots went to (Nawww).
Heck, we can’t predict weather out more than 72 hours and these guys want to explain the parting of the Red Sea? Get real. This excersize in futility only serves to further reduce the credibility in an already faltering (floundering?), fledgeling science. Why even go there? It bares their ignorance and arrogance simultaneously.
Look, Moses stretched forth his staff and God parted the Red Sea (not the Sea of Reeds: that’s a “theory” which can never be proven), then when the Jews were safely across he stretched out his hand again and the seas returned drowning the majority of the Egyptian army. Simple, direct, and effective for the escaping Jews. Believe it…or not. Got a problem with it? Don’t read the book. Want to argue with a believer about it? Good luck with that!
Science does not have to explain God any more than the Bible (or any other religion / religious text) has to explain particle physics (or any other natural process).
As a taxpayer my response to these guys is…get back to WORK!
I would have arrived at most of the truly amazing rationalizations bearing out the biblical stories if I had +3000 years and as many faithful believers at my disposal to ponder upon them. But then again, maybe I would have had them study how many angels could dance on the . . .
John
John
Wow… and all this time scholars have been wrong, it wasn’t a mistranslation of the word reeds. Good thing we have taxes to finance this.
Amino Acids in Meteorites says: September 21, 2010 at 11:23 pm
So the wind dried the mud at the bottom into dry land too? …….um…ok…..
At King Sound Western Australia there are 12 metre tides you can walk up to 2 miles out to sea at low tide on hard sand, mind you, you need to have a fast jog trot when the tide turns.
I think the Climate Lobby in Britain may be hoping for a similar miracle to prevent the Evil Forces of Denialism (in which I am proud to declare myself a common soldier) from scrapping the Department of Climate Change! Perhaps the Conservative Treasury and hard-hearted, wicked Pharaoh Osborne will be engulfed by a sudden Thames tidal surge.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/sep/21/chris-huhne-fights-treasury-attacks
‘The news came today as Huhne gave his speech to the Liberal Democrat conference. His pitch was that the government wanted to foster a “third industrial revolution” in low-carbon technology. But the techno-optimism of the speech sat awkwardly with the news that he has been forced to contemplate breaking up his department. ….. The Green party leader, Caroline Lucas, said that climate change should take priority over cuts. “Nobody who understands the urgency and the seriousness of the climate crisis could even contemplate decimating the department that leads the effort to deal with it,” she said.’
The Cheshire Cat has nothing on the persistent grin I’m sporting …..
I thought Ancient Aliens were responsible for this sort of thing.
… and Gaia said to Moonbat, Come Forth With Your “blind-eye” Indulgences. And it was goody goody.
…-
“Denmark allows Chinese Co2 scam
The Energy Board allegedly turns blind eye to swindle with Chinese CO2 credits.”
http://politiken.dk/newsinenglish/1065634/denmark-allows-chinese-co2-scam/
@ur momisugly Twiggy
The scholars are usually (sorry, often) wrong.
If you don’t believe me, believe Galileo
Brian D Finch says:
September 22, 2010 at 4:06 am
@ur momisugly Twiggy
The scholars are usually (sorry, often) wrong.
If you don’t believe me, believe Galileo
_____________________
I think the point ‘Twiggy’ is making is similiar to mine: our tax dollars paid for this “science”?!
Never was the accusation that these modellers sit around and play ‘video games’ more substantiated.
Well, despite the subject matter being something I would be interested in (who wouldn’t be interested in biblical history? It’s fascinating watching how the languages moved around back then) I can understand the objections people have to this.
However, two things to consider: unlike AGW (ACD? ACDC?) modelling there aren’t any predictions being mae from this, and equally unlike it there aren’t any attempts to declare it as truth after all the “mights” and “could haves”. I think that’s important to bear in mind.
Chances are what’s happened here is a combination of a department attempting to justify its funding and a postgrad with an interesting idea to play with. If a department can demonstrate that it’s used up all its funds it can justify receiving a similar amount next year so they will tend to burn up any surplus on projects that don’t have any immediate relevance. And, despite the biblical theme, the physical modelling of unusual known phenomena an interesting topic of study for a postgrad or postdoc.
“Geckko says:
September 22, 2010 at 2:51 am
Just as a follow up. Historical materials also indicate that Moses planned this escape and hence it is would have had to have been a regular phenomenon, rather than an extraordinary event.”
There are no historical materials or contemporary accounts in existence for Moses or the Exodus. It’s an affront to science and historical study to suggest there is. WUWT has been about exposing junk science so posting junk science here stands out like a sore thumb.
Instead of an Israelite exodus, wandering the deserts for 40 years, waging war on the Canaanites (none of this appears in any historical accounts), a true study of ancient Israelite history reveals that they were simply always a part of Canaanite culture and began to emerge as influential independent states between the downfall of the Egyptian empire and the rise of the Assyrians.
And at least until the 6th century BCE, the Israelites also venerated a pantheon of deities including El, Baal, Yahu (famously written ‘yhwh’ and now mispronounced by most), Asherah and Adon. There’s no evidence for an ancient monotheistic culture founded by a man called Moses. This origin story was created in the 5th century BCE and history was rewritten under orders from the Persians who were expunging the Near East of many deities at the time. They felt their empire would be more stable with less religious differences, hence less deities.
Al Gore’s Holy Hologram says:
September 22, 2010 at 4:21 am
That’s the first I’ve heard of that. That Israeli monotheism was heavily influenced by zoroastorianism is without dispute (the most obvious influence is the book of Job), but the idea that the persian empire would forcibly re-write the religions of its subjects for “stability” seems to contradict its behaviour in other spheres.
[REPLY: Lets get back to the discussion of the science topic please. …bl57~mod]
Strange, I would have thought the atheists and otherwise non-believers would be happy that yet-another “miracle” has a plausible scientific explanation. Must they insist that practically everything in the Bible has to be complete myth, when they can explain it away with science instead? Sometimes I’m surprised they allow that the Jews existed at all.
(My all time favorite “possible explanation” was that Mary was a tetragametic chimera with ovotestes, thus the “virgin birth” was scientifically possible. Oh man, the caterwauling that generated…)
😉
[REPLY: Lets get back to the discussion of the science topic at hand please. …bl57~mod]
@Al Gore’s Holy Hologram It appears that the present Pentateuch was redaction of an earlier work done in about 700 BCE. Baal was indeed a big runner with some of the locals, but it is not clear that this was endorsed in the Jewish religion. Do not expect the Egyptians to provide any writings about how they lost anything. That does not happen. They keep fighting and winning as they return (aka retreat) to their own country on any of their expeditions.
I can see it, Moses sitting alone next to the deep waters, deeply thinking how to get out of this mess, he looks up and says:
Look, miracles do happen sometimes! What about the miracle of the missing Medieval Warm Period? 🙁