MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…135 MPH…215 KM/HR, path projected to be away from the East coast of the USA.
See the latest bulletin and satellite image and animation below:
Animated loop of this image here
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
500 AM AST FRI AUG 27 2010
…DANIELLE REACHES CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY…
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…26.5N 58.7W
ABOUT 545 MI…875 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…135 MPH…215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…946 MB…27.94 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANIELLE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 58.7 WEST. DANIELLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH…19 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE
CENTER OF DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL EAST OF BERMUDA
SATURDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH…215 KM/HR
…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DANIELLE IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES…95 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES…335 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 946 MB…27.94 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF…LARGE WAVES AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SWELLS FROM DANIELLE WILL BEGIN
TO ARRIVE ON THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 AM AST.
====================================
BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 1100 PM AST THU AUG 26 2010 ...EARL RACING WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 40.2W ABOUT 1525 MI...2455 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.2 WEST. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE.
This is the amount of precipitable water in the atmosphere;
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/tpw2/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif
Maybe they have a link for what you are looking for as well.
wayne says:
August 27, 2010 at 11:24 am
> If you could see a real-time infrared satellite photo of these storms would they have cool water tails trailing behind them? How much do they cool the surface water as they pass?
Yes, and it doesn’t have to be realtime, the trail remains for days. I posted a link to a trail from Hurricane Edouard, see http://www.atmos.albany.edu/deas/atmclasses/atm305/hurricanewake.pdf I also had a clearer image, but the article will do.
Richard Holle says:
August 27, 2010 at 11:52 am
This is the amount of precipitable water in the atmosphere;
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/tpw2/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif
Maybe they have a link for what you are looking for as well.
=================
Wow, another great looking website to explore.
Thanks.
Hurricane Agnes was a lowly Cat 1 hurricane back in 1972, and still remembered as the greatest natural disaster to ever hit Pennsylvania. Here at the family home in Central PA, practically at the very top of a “small mountain” hill that’s the highest spot for miles around, we had a lot of standing water in the basement. The rain just kept coming, couldn’t be pumped out fast enough. Nearby neighbors had flooded basements. My father drove us down the road where we could look out over the town and the Susquehanna River, and try to guess where the bridges and the islands were underneath all that water.
Just a small Cat 1 hurricane, down to a Tropical Storm when it hit PA.
The Category numbers sound impressive, are useful for gaging potential wind damage. But for total devastation that will be done, they don’t tell you everything.
@Ric Werme August 27, 2010 at 1:05 pm
Thanks Ric. That’s exactly what I wanted to see. Seems to clip upto five degrees off. Will have to read that paper later, looks interesting.
I think Earl will pose a threat to the Eastern Seaboard in the long-term, as it is not only further south than Danielle, but much weaker, inidcating that steering currents would favor a East Coast storm, not a Bermuda Storm.
Per Ric’s request, and out of respect for what he does with his life;
The models have now started to see a swing [wobble] toward the South west as a result of the tidal effects of the moon soon passing over head for the night, about 4 degrees North of the Equator, the dome of raised ionosphere, and troposphere underneath is pulling Earl in toward the center of the passing bulge effect.
Resulting in a pulse of growth in a Southwestern direction from its established track, after the moon passes nearly (with in 12 degrees) overhead, it will may rebound back most of the way before tomorrow night, when the moon passes about 8 degrees South of Earl’s position, pulling it further south again.
By the night of the 29th, from moon rise to overhead, will set the stage for a pulse of growth and movement mostly straight west, past the 30th the moon will be above the 16 North latitude line and be pulling Earl north, for the re-curve into the continental air mass coming off of the South East US coast, and be forced to slide on North, closer to shore than Danielle will.
I had original (back in July) thought the westward progress made on the 28th, 29th, and 30th would be enough (I’m still learning) to put it past the tip of Florida, and the re-curve on the 31st and 1st, bring it into the panhandle, and out through South Carolina, and out of the area by the 4th September.
Although the maps (on my site) from the past cycles show it not quite making shore from the Eastern side.
I hope that is detailed enough.
Richard Holle
The track does not look like much fun for Bermuda.
The Saturday 8am notice has the storm back to a cat 2, missing Bermuda but taking an interesting turn north towards Greenland on the day 4-5 estimate (Wed-Thursday).
And, back in the 40’s and 50’s, would we even have known that a storm forming off Africa and tracking through the Atlantic had even ranked as a hurricane.
The latest Stormpulse forecast is showing Danielle will track north, missing Bermuda and the US Atlantic seaboard. Here’s hoping it misses the UK next week, although the resulting low pressure front may still bring us more of the cool, grey, wet weather!
Plot of probable storm track here:-
http://www.stormpulse.com/
Some Live web cams from in front of Earl, Visit the Caribbean.
Local comment; Today is definitely one of the hottest days of the summer. Clear blue skies, flat calm seas and not a trace of wind.
http://reservationsbvi.com/web%20cams/Magens%20Bay%20Beach%20St%20Thomas%20Web%20Cam.html
http://reservationsbvi.com/web%20cams/st%20thomas%20live%20web%20cam.html
http://reservationsbvi.com/cam/Cruz%20Bay%20St%20John%20Dock%20Cam.html
http://www.innoserv.fr/megapixelc06.html
http://leverickbay.org/webcam.htm
The left front quadrant of Earl suddenly explodes with convection, as the shear and subsidence from Danielle’s outflow relaxes.
Definitely a sign of intensification. Earl is going to be a bugger of a storm!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-ir4.html
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
Well tonight’s burst of growth surge as the moon passed overhead (just South with in 8 degrees) pulled in some of the dryer depleted air in the out wash of Danielle, “that was just out there” in the 15 degree zone of the tidal bulge center, as it shoved the top of the convection, around and to the southern side, (Shear is the term they use for it).
Leaving the lower level center of circulation kinda back to the East, when the shear, drops Earl will become more consolidated, by pulling itself under the center of the fresh convection that was pulled West as the day dawns, and the web cams start to show clouds.
Whole page of web cams for the Caribbean Islands for the voyeurs in us all.
http://reservationsbvi.com/web%20cams.html
With Danielle heading into colder water and on a track that says it won’t affect the British Isles, attention turns to Earl, which was upgraded to hurricane status in NHC’s 805 AM EDT (1205 UTC) Tropical Weather Discussion as of 1230 UTC. (The web page says modified at 1243 UTC, so maybe 1205 is when they started the edit. Oh well, hot off the press!)
With Earl forecasted to become a major hurricane and a track that clips the Leeward islands and then goes between the US and Bermuda, Earl will be a more important storm to watch.
The discussion page http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/291205.shtml? notes (converted to mixed case, YOU’RE WELCOME):
Earl appears to be experiencing some northerly shear associated with the outflow from Hurricane Danielle with the outflow of Earl restricted on the northern semicircle. This shear is expected to decrease today as Earl moves away from Danielle. The guidance suggests Earl will become a hurricane within the next 24 hours [yep, very late breaking news!] and could reach major hurricane strength by mid week. Scattered/Numerous strong convection is from 15N-17N between 55W-58W with scattered moderate/isolated strong convection covering the remainder of the area from 13N-19N between 54W-61W. Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are fast approaching the Leeward Islands.
Web page of note: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastprofile.shtml has a lot of good graphics related to hrricane tracks, points of origen, and landfalls.
Earl is starting to show up on the French Antilles radar site, and I found an animated flavor at
http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?81