Guest post by Marc Hendrickx
The case for dangerous man made global warming hangs on the wall like a frayed medieval tapestry. By pulling just one loose thread the whole thing starts to unravel. We pulled one of those threads recently…
The Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) was recently caught making a mistake in a report on melting ice on Mount Everest. The ABC claimed that “Studies show temperatures are rising faster at Mount Everest than in the rest of South Asia.” When ABC were requested to provide details of the “Studies” they cited Table 10.2 from IPCC’s AR4 Working Group 2 report. However, contrary to ABC’s claims this table showed that the area of fastest rising temperature in South Asia was Sri Lanka, not the Himalaya (and hence not Mt Everest). ABC’s gaffe however served to highlight a few errors made by the IPCC. It turns out the IPCC incorrectly cited references that backed up the Himalayan temperature trends in Table 10.2, citing two conference papers and one peer reviewed paper that related to precipitation, not temperature (also covered in Table 10.2). Additionally references to support the high Sri Lankan temperatures appear to be from conference papers not from peer reviewed journal articles-(Follow references in Table 10.2).
After some digging the original work on the Himalayan temperature trends was found to be:
Shrestha, Arun B.; Wake, Cameron P.; Mayewski, Paul A.; Dibb, Jack E., 1999. Maximum Temperature Trends in the Himalaya and Its Vicinity: An Analysis Based on Temperature Records from Nepal for the Period 1971–94. Journal of Climate, 9/1/99, Vol. 12 Issue 9 pp:2775-2786.
It’s odd that the IPCC could not find more recent to back up its claims of rapid warming in the Himalaya in AR4. Readers may re-call the IPCC has a tainted record in reporting climate change in the Himalaya having been caught out using “grey literature” to back claims that Himalayan glaciers would disappear by 2035. These have now been shown to be false and the IPCC has issued a correction.
IPCC’s trend of 0.09º C.yr-1 for the Himalaya cited in Table 10.2 comes from Table 2 of Shrestha et al., 1999. This presents the regional mean temperature trends for the period 1977-1994 (just 17 years) based on a Kriging analysis. This is a geostatistical method of filling data gaps, great when you are calculating the extent of an ore body with loads of drill hole information but not so good when the data are limited, as is the case here. For the Himalaya, the IPCC also cherry pick the highest seasonal value, the figure for winter (0.09º C.yr-1). The annual figure given by Shrestha et al., 1999 is less: 0.057º C.yr-1.
But that’s not the end of the story; let’s look at the paper by Shrestha et al, 1999 in more detail. It provides an analysis of maximum temperature data from 49 stations in Nepal.
The abstract states:
Analyses of maximum temperature data from 49 stations in Nepal for the period 1971–94 reveal warming trends after 1977 ranging from 0.06 to 0.12C yr-1 in most of the Middle Mountain and Himalayan regions, while the Siwalik and Terai (southern plains) regions show warming trends less than 0.03C yr-1. The subset of records (14 stations) extending back to the early 1960s suggests that the recent warming trends were preceded by similar widespread cooling trends. Distributions of seasonal and annual temperature trends show high rates of warming in the high-elevation regions of the country (Middle Mountains and Himalaya), while low warming or even cooling trends were found in the southern regions. This is attributed to the sensitivity of mountainous regions to climate changes. The seasonal temperature trends and spatial distribution of temperature trends also highlight the influence of monsoon circulation.
The Kathmandu record, the longest in Nepal (1921–94), shows features similar to temperature trends in the Northern Hemisphere, suggesting links between regional trends and global scale phenomena. However, the magnitudes of trends are much enhanced in the Kathmandu as well as in the all-Nepal records. The authors’ analyses suggest that contributions of urbanization and local land use/cover changes to the all-Nepal record are minimal and that the all-Nepal record provides an accurate record of temperature variations across the entire region.
The time covered for the bulk of stations does not cover a single climate cycle so it’s hard to get excited about the results and we assume someone, somewhere will provide an update to extend the analysis to the present. Of the stations selected for the analysis only 5 stations with records dating from or before the mid 1960s were located in the Himalayan Region: Jiri (elevation-2003m), Okhaldunga (elevation-1720m), Chialsa (elevation-2770m), Chainpur (elevation-1329m), and Taplejung (elevation-1732m). Shrestha et al., 1999 define the Himalaya region in their figure 1 reproduced below.
The location of the stations is shown in the following image from Google Earth, note they are all concentrated in the very eastern part of Nepal (click to enlarge), with none in the western Himalaya, none west of Long 86.23. The vast bulk of the Himalaya is empty of real data.
The temperature trends (Max/Min) for weather stations with records extending back to the early 1960s are shown in Figure 2 of the paper (reproduced below with a red H next to the 5 Himalayan stations-click to enlarge).
We extracted figures for the Himalayan stations and reproduce them in the chart below. It also shows the trend cited by the IPCC of 0.09º C.yr-1 in red.
It’s quite clear the trends of the actual data across the entire record do not support the figures produced in Shrestha’s Kriging analysis, which is limited to 1977-1994. The temperature trends for the Himalayan stations are as follows:
| Station | Max ºC.yr-1 | Min ºC.yr-1 |
| Jiri | 0.063 | -0.044 |
| Okhaldunga | 0.0016 | 0.0045 |
| Chialsa | 0.039 | 0.066 |
| Chainpur | 0.013 | -0.0094 |
| Taplejung | -0.0057 | 0.0036 |
| Average | 0.022 | 0.0041 |
These trends, based on the reported station data, are much lower than the trends reported by Shrestha et al., 1999 and do not appear in any way unprecedented or alarming. The absence of data in the Western Himalaya invalidates the Kriging Analysis (you can’t interpolate into a data void), combine this with the crime of cherry picking recent trends to confuse weather with climate and a big part of the IPCC’s fragile tapestry of dangerous man made global warming suddenly falls through your fingers. All thanks to a loose thread revealed by the ABC.
They’re determining a trend with the newest bit of data being 15 yrs old? Fine, back in the 1700’s it was was significantly cooling. Proof positive the world will be covered with ice in no time flat!
The trend line on the last graph on this page purports to have a gradient of 0.09C. It doesn’t. The line has a gradient about 25% higher. (0.09C/yr would give 3.15C after 35 years, not 4C)
Inquiring minds want to know if this was fraud or incompetence, and how many inquiries will be necessary before one produces the right result.
Words like “attributed”, “suggest”, And “suggesting” should be forbidden in a scientific paper. This phrase, “contributions of urbanization and local land use/cover changes to the all-Nepal record are minimal”, raises both eyebrows. Take out Chialsa, and I see no rising trend at all!
Stephan and J Hansford both nail it nicely!
As a 20+yr ABC Listener I sure notice the bias there, and in the 2 owner msm.
Science show sat 7th Aug 10, a rambling ditty for the heavily green prowarmist, now it seems to be “win them with wordplay”sceptic bashing by the musical route..superficially humourous, yet with an agenda to ridicule.
Science should get personal for pachy, give him a beanie and a thermometer and set him down on top of one of the glaciers, maybe let rwilliams join him for real life reportage?
cold comfort:-)
I can visualise it, make a good ‘toon
Icarus says:
August 7, 2010 at 3:12 am
“Once again it seems important to point out that the satellite data series for global mean temperature (UAH, RSS) are virtually indistinguishable from the terrestrial data series (GISTEMP, HADCRUT etc.). They all show warming of 0.15 – 0.2°C per decade. Argue all you like about the attribution of that warming, but you can be sure that it’s not an artefact of the terrestrial instrumentation.”
There seems to be a widening gap appearing between GISS data and satellite inferred temperature data. The satellite data has problems as the algorithms used to convert brightness data to temperature anomaly tend to produce what the programmers expect to find. Many climate models suffer from this ‘programmer expectation bias’.
Finally it is worth pointing out that Dr. Jones of the CRU confirmed that there had been no statistically significant global warming for the past 15y. He also stated that there had been periods in recorded history when temperature trends had been similar to today, but CO2 was at a much lower level.
So much more going on in the Himalaya’s:
Environ. Res. Lett. 5 (April-June 2010) 025204
doi:10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/025204
Enhanced surface warming and accelerated snow melt in the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau induced by absorbing aerosols
William K M Lau (1), Maeng-Ki Kim (2), Kyu-Myong Kim (3) and Woo-Seop Lee (2)
1 Laboratory for Atmospheres, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA
2 Department of Atmospheric Science, Kongju National University, Gongju, 314-701, Korea
3 Goddard Earth Sciences and Technology Center, University of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD 21228, USA
Received 25 November 2009
Accepted 20 January 2010
Published 9 April 2010
Abstract. Numerical experiments with the NASA finite-volume general circulation model show that heating of the atmosphere by dust and black carbon can lead to widespread enhanced warming over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and accelerated snow melt in the western TP and Himalayas. During the boreal spring, a thick aerosol layer, composed mainly of dust transported from adjacent deserts and black carbon from local emissions, builds up over the Indo-Gangetic Plain, against the foothills of the Himalaya and the TP. The aerosol layer, which extends from the surface to high elevation ( ~ 5 km), heats the mid-troposphere by absorbing solar radiation. The heating produces an atmospheric dynamical feedback—the so-called elevated-heat-pump (EHP) effect, which increases moisture, cloudiness, and deep convection over northern India, as well as enhancing the rate of snow melt in the Himalayas and TP. The accelerated melting of snow is mostly confined to the western TP, first slowly in early April and then rapidly from early to mid-May. The snow cover remains reduced from mid-May through early June. The accelerated snow melt is accompanied by similar phases of enhanced warming of the atmosphere–land system of the TP, with the atmospheric warming leading the surface warming by several days. Surface energy balance analysis shows that the short-wave and long-wave surface radiative fluxes strongly offset each other, and are largely regulated by the changes in cloudiness and moisture over the TP. The slow melting phase in April is initiated by an effective transfer of sensible heat from a warmer atmosphere to land. The rapid melting phase in May is due to an evaporation–snow–land feedback coupled to an increase in atmospheric moisture over the TP induced by the EHP effect.
http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/5/2/025204/fulltext
Melting of major Glaciers in the western Himalayas: evidence of
climatic changes from long term MSU derived tropospheric
temperature trend (1979–2008)
A. K. Prasad (1,3), K.-H. S. Yang (1,2,3), H. M. El-Askary (1,3,4,5), and M. Kafatos (1,3)
1Department of Physics, Computational Science and Engineering, Schmid College of Science, Chapman University, Orange,
CA 92866, USA
2Department of Biological Sciences, Schmid College of Science, Chapman University, Orange, CA 92866, USA
3Center of Excellence in Earth Observing, Chapman University, Orange, CA 92866, USA
4Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Science, Alexandria University, Moharem Bek, Alexandria, 21522, Egypt
5National Authority for Remote Sensing and Space Science (NARSS), Cairo, Egypt
Received: 16 April 2009 – Revised: 19 August 2009 – Accepted: 9 September 2009 – Published: 11 December 2009
Abstract. Global warming or the increase of the surface
and atmospheric temperatures of the Earth, is increasingly
discernible in the polar, sub-polar and major land
glacial areas. The Himalayan and Tibetan Plateau Glaciers,
which are the largest glaciers outside of the Polar Regions,
are showing a large-scale decrease of snow cover
and an extensive glacial retreat. These glaciers such as
Siachen and Gangotri are a major water resource for Asia
as they feed major rivers such as the Indus, Ganga and
Brahmaputra. Due to scarcity of ground measuring stations,
the long-term observations of atmospheric temperatures
acquired from the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU)
since 1979–2008 is highly useful. The lower and middle
tropospheric temperature trend based on 30 years of MSU
data shows warming of the Northern Hemisphere’s midlatitude
regions. The mean month-to-month warming (up
to 0.048±0.026K/year or 1.44K over 30 years) of the mid
troposphere (near surface over the high altitude Himalayas
and Tibetan Plateau) is prominent and statistically significant
at a 95% confidence interval. Though the mean annual
warming trend over the Himalayas (0.016±0.005K/year),
and Tibetan Plateau (0.008±0.006K/year) is positive, the
month to month warming trend is higher (by 2–3 times,
positive and significant) only over a period of six months
(December to May). The factors responsible for the reversal
of this trend from June to November are discussed
here. The inequality in the magnitude of the warming
trends of the troposphere between the western and eastern
Himalayas and the IG (Indo-Gangetic) plains is attributed
to the differences in increased aerosol loading (due to dust
storms) over these regions. The monthly mean lowertropospheric
MSU-derived temperature trend over the IG
plains (dust sink region; up to 0.032±0.027K/year) and
dust source regions (Sahara desert, Middle East, Arabian
region, Afghanistan-Iran-Pakistan and Thar Desert regions;
up to 0.068±0.033K/year) also shows a similar pattern
of month-to-month oscillation and six months of enhanced
and a statistically significant warming trend. The enhanced
warming trend during the winter and pre-monsoon months
(December–May) may accelerate glacial melt. The unequal
distribution of the warming trend over the year is discussed in
this study and is partially attributed to a number of controlling
factors such as sunlight duration, CO2 trends over the
region (2003–2008), water vapor and aerosol distribution.
http://www.ann-geophys.net/27/4505/2009/angeo-27-4505-2009.html
Enhanced Pre-Monsoon Warming over the Himalayan-Gangetic Region from 1979 to 2007
R. Gautam (1,2), N. C. Hsu (2), K.-M. Lau (2), S.-C. Tsay (2), M. Kafatos (3)
1Goddard Earth Science and Technology Center, University of Maryland Baltimore
County, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.
2Laboratory for Atmospheres, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD
20771, USA.
3Center for Excellence in Earth Observing, Schmid College of Science, Chapman
University, Orange, California, USA.
Abstract. Fundamental to the onset of the Indian Summer Monsoon is the land-sea thermal gradient from the Indian Ocean to the Himalayas-Tibetan Plateau (HTP). The
timing of the onset is strongly controlled by the meridional tropospheric
temperature gradient due to the rapid pre-monsoon heating of the HTP compared
to the relatively cooler Indian Ocean. Analysis of tropospheric temperatures from
the longest available record of microwave satellite measurements reveals
widespread warming over the Himalayan-Gangetic region and consequent
strengthening of the land-sea thermal gradient. This trend is most pronounced in
the pre-monsoon season, resulting in a warming of 2.7ºC in the 29-year record
(1979-2007), when this region is strongly influenced by dust aerosols at elevated
altitudes. The enhanced tropospheric warming is accompanied by increased
atmospheric loading of absorbing aerosols, particularly vertically extended dust
aerosols, raising the possibility that aerosol solar heating has amplified the seasonal
warming and in turn strengthened the land-sea gradient.
http://gest.umbc.edu/faculty_publications/2009/Gautam_Himalayan_GRL.pdf
“Jenne says:”
You can see that aerosol layer in the satellite photo at the top of the post. What are the chances that has increased over the time in question?
This is fascinating stuff Because its unlikely to deviate much any more as it refrezes
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php
all bets are off! I wonder what Steve Goddard is thinking now? Would be nice to see a magnified close up soon! (wait another day or two… LOL)
And now it looks like the whole artifice is falling LOL
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.365.jpg
This is just a joke BTW!
The slope of your comparative red trend line in the final graph is incorrect. Not that this affects your conclusion, but a 35-year period of 0.09dC rising temperature would intersect at 3.15 if starting at zero, not 4.0 as shown.
richard telford says:
August 7, 2010 at 4:16 am
Remind me, who invented the rule that the IPCC should not use grey literature?
I believe it was the IPCC who claimed (repeatedly) that only peer reviewed literature was used in the assessment reports. They quietly changed their policy several years prior to AR4, but continued to make this claim – as recently as 2009 as I recall.
……Shrestha’s Kriging analysis, which is limited to 1977-1994….
For those who don’t know 1977 was the beginning of ‘Great Pacific Climate Shift’. The warming beginning at that time was natural and has nothing to do with human activity.
2:32 video talks about it:
“Chris de Freitas Ph.D., El Nino, La Nina, and the 1976 Great Pacific Climate Shift”
That rule was lifted for AR4, but Patchy didn’t get the memo and continually asserted that the IPCC relied only on peer-reviewed literature, unlike its critics. Some outspoken warmists also found this a convenient stick with which to beat the devil.
Mods: this typo has gone unfixed:
PS: And gray literature was supposed to be used only as a supplement, not as the primary or single source for a claim. This guideline was flouted in the 2035 claim.
……limited to 1977-1994……..
‘Cherry picked’ has become a hackneyed term in global warming. But in this case it applies.
There was a time of warming in the earth from 1977 to 1999 from PDO (+) and solar activity. The warming had nothing to do with manmade co2. The temperature data used in the study was only from that time. And it shows warming. That would define ‘cherry picking’.
3:02 video
Don Easterbrook, PDO warm, PDO cool
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IR_dawnR7_M
Gary Mount says:
August 7, 2010 at 2:23 am
Greenpeace India still has an article claiming the disappearance of the Himalayan Glaciers by 2035.
http://www.greenpeace.org/india/blog/the-grey-himalayas
——–
Not exactly, they actually say:
Though they don’t point to which report. They furthermore attribute ‘melting’ to co2 instead of looking at the Asian soot / smog which has been found to have the same or more of a ‘warming’ effect than co2 by the Warmists at Nasa :o)
How many times have we debunked the lies of the pro-AGWers?
“richard telford says:
August 7, 2010 at 4:16 am
Remind me, who invented the rule that the IPCC should not use grey literature?”
Their fearless leader who said that the science is based on 100% peer-reviewed research on multiple occasions. If you claim to do something, then if you do not, you lose all credibility.
No wonder that the Himalayas no longer have any polar bears!
What do you mean: you can’t interpolate data into void?
Dr. James “coal fired power plants are factories of death” Hansen at NASA GISS does this all the time.
Jenne says:
August 7, 2010 at 7:13 am
Melting of major Glaciers in the western Himalayas: evidence of
climatic changes from long term MSU derived tropospheric
temperature trend (1979–2008)….the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU)
since 1979–2008 is highly useful.
Most of the years in your data set are from a time of natural warming in the earth. That is ‘climatic changes’ but it is completely normal. Climate has always changed.
The data set in the study you comment on is not useful in determining long term trend. This using of sort term time periods for determining ‘global warming’ has to stop. 29 years is not useful for determining long term climate.
1000’s or 100,000’s of years is what is needed.
2035/GlacierGate
A review of what GlacierGate is from a scientist from India
8:20 video
“Madhav Khandekar, PhD, of India, on global warming scandal from India, GlacierGate”
Look at the Asian haze.
http://www.nasaimages.org/luna/servlet/detail/nasaNAS~10~10~68976~174005:Haze-along-the-Himalaya-Front-Range
http://geology.com/nasa/nepal-forest-fires/
http://geology.com/nasa/nepal-forest-fires/nepal-forest-fires-lg.jpg
“”During the last 20 years, the black soot concentration has increased two- to three-fold relative to its concentration in 1975,” said Junji Cao, a researcher from the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Beijing and a coauthor of the paper…….”Fifty percent of the glaciers were retreating from 1950 to 1980 in the Tibetan region; that rose to 95 percent in the early 21st century,” said Tandong Yao, director of the Chinese Academy’s Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research. ….At Zuoqiupu glacier — a bellwether site on the southern edge of the plateau and downwind from the Indian subcontinent — black soot deposition increased by 30 percent between 1990 and 2003. The rise in soot levels at Zuoqiupu follows a dip that followed the enacting of clean air regulations in Europe in the 1970s.”
The study was published December 7th in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2009-12/nsfc-bcd121409.php
Alternative explanations are such a pain in the bu**