By Steve Goddard
- Doomsday clock – Bulletin of The Atomic Scientists
Way back in June, The Guardian wrote up an excellent summary of the official forecasts of doom.
Scientists at the US National Snow and Ice Centre Data Centre (NSIDC) report today that Arctic sea ice – frozen seawater that floats on the ocean surface – is now at its lowest physical extent ever recorded for the time of year, suggesting that it is on course to break the previous record low set in 2007.
The chances of that happening are pretty close to zero.
Global surface temperatures may also be at a record high, according to leading climate scientist James Hansen and colleagues at the National Aeronautic Space Administration (Nasa).
If they keep adjusting temperatures upwards, they may eventually get to that point. But they are in a rush against time, because there is a strong La Niña building.
Hansen, credited with being one of the first scientists to study climate change, dismisses sceptics’ claims that global warming “stopped” in 1998. “Record high global temperature during the period with instrumental data was reached in 2010,” he writes.
Well, actually not.
“Hansen – Global warming on decadal timescales is continuing without let-up … we conclude that there has been no reduction in the global warming trend of 0.15-0.2C/decade that began in the late 1970s.”
Reality differs. None of the major indices showed much warming over the last decade.
As a result of high sea surface temperatures, the Atlantic hurricane season – which officially started this week – is expected to be one of the most intense in years. Last week NOAA predicted 14 to 23 named storms, including eight to 14 hurricanes – three to seven of which were likely to be “major”, with winds of at least 111mph.
The hurricane season has been quite average so far, and Sea Surface Temperatures are plummeting, as forecast by WUWT six months ago.
These same people fail with their forecasts of doom over and over, and just keep turning up the volume. Meanwhile Antarctic ice continues at record highs. Maybe The Guardian needs to do a story about that?
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Steve:
your UAH graph on global temperature is not very consistent with Dr Spencer’s figures. For example, March is supposed to be +0.65 and your is about 0.55 Is it an interpolation?
As Gray and Klotzbach have stated again and again, “global warming” has no impact whatsoever on the the frequency or strength of tropical cyclones. (Incidentally, hurricane numbers in the Atlantic basin have declined compared to the active period of the ’40s, ’50s and ’60s).
I stopped paying attention to Hansen years ago. He’s a two-bit carnival barker impersonating a scientist.
Rob Vermeulen
I take the UAH data right off their website. The Google spreadsheet function I used to make the graph does some smoothing. It has no impact on the fact that UAH had 1998 hotter.
Rob Vermeulen
My graph above shows March at 0.66. You are misreading it.
A lesson of COMMON SENSE: George Carlin “The Planet is Fine”
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=arbpu1xKAow&hl=en_US&fs=1]
Here is a non-cherrypicked graph of all datasets.
Rob Vermeulen
Look closer at the graph. You are misinterpreting it.
NevenA
You cleverly chose your start point to be the peak of La Nina and the end point to be the peak of El Nino.
Cherry-picking at its absolute worst.
If anyone can provide information on Steve Goddard’s existence prior to April 2008, what school he attended, what degree and profession he has, what his scientific publications are, I’d love to hear about it.
If anyone can provide information on Snowlover123’s existence prior to 2010, what school he attended, what degree and profession he has, what his scientific publications are, I’d love to hear about it.
Alexander Feht says:
July 29, 2010 at 12:32 am
But the question remains: how to deal with ruling liars?
Votes! 🙂
NevenA says:
July 29, 2010 at 6:30 pm
Here is a non-cherrypicked graph of all datasets.
Thanks for trying to convince me it wasn’t cherry picked. But, I know it is nothing but cherry picked.
But God bless ya anyway.
stevengoddard says:
July 29, 2010 at 7:39 pm
NevenA
You cleverly chose your start point to be the peak of La Nina and the end point to be the peak of El Nino.
Cherry-picking at its absolute worst.
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Oh, but he told us it wasn’t cherry picked. So that means it wasn’t. It only matters what is said. Don’t look at anything behind the curtain.
sarc off
Snowlover123
July 29, 2010 at 8:44 pm
As is usual, attack the man, never discuss the science.
The whole climate warming issue is interesting to me in several respects. It is a variation on “The Limits To Growth” book and other concepts put forth in the 1970′. The first edition of this book suggested that the worldwide society should move to zero growth in population, industry, consumption, land use – everything! Failure to stabilize overall growth will inevitably lead to overextension of the system leading to major global population calamity in the future. They were working on 50 or so year time frames.
O, Whoa Are Us. But no serious action was taken.
There was a later revised companion to “The Limits To Growth” that published the basic conclusions that
The basic suggestions from the original study were mostly valid.
But (in summary),
Instead of a global population calamity,
Expect the “First World Nations” organizing and “dominating” the “Third World
Nations” to control the essential resources. This seems to lead only to “Third World
Nations” population calamity.
Is there a pattern here?
It’s pretty clear from the data that La Nina is forming.
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_ncom/anims/eqp/sst30d.gif
&
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstanim.gif
Can anyone say it is not? Or would you rather ask what is my background?
wow what pretty graphs! So am I to dismiss the evidence of my own body that tells me we been having extremely hot summers for at least 5 years in a row? So all those heat waves I been experiencing are what, in my imagination only?? Tell that to the people who died in Russia or to all the people on the East coast of USA who had another hot summer!
No matter what your background you can see Arctic ice in not in the death spiral that some scientists have said it is in.
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/AMSRE_Sea_Ice_Extent_L.png
It looks like it is doing what Steven Goddard forecast it would. It may even end up having a little higher minimum than he forecast. (But maybe not) I didn’t see the global warming scientists come anywhere near this in their doom predictions. And the PIOMAS graph is laughable.
Those who attack Steven Goddard do it because they are afraid of him. And they are coming out of the woodwork to do it. There’s new names coming all the time. That tells me they are really feeling uneasy.
Steven Goddard’s Arctic ice posts are very informative as to what is really happening with Arctic ice. And he has been right in his forecasts.
In the final analysis those who attack someone that is right are a non factor in the real world. It must suck to be them—it must suck that when it comes right down to it people can see you’ve got nothing.
It seems the alarmists have ramped-up the propaganda of late. May be because the Mexico COP meeting is just 4 months away.
One can see the strategy, keep harping about the “warmest year” for the next few months. If this La Nina cools the planet by October November, just pretend that’s only weather.
Plamen Petkov says:
July 29, 2010 at 10:04 pm “another hot summer!”
So, I was taking a sip of my favoriate beverage as I read this. Now I am wiping off the monitor! My heavens. It is hot in summer. Who would have thunk it?
It is winter in South America and it has been very cold. So?
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
And I don’t care about the parentage and education of Steven Goddard and I care even less about Snowlover123 or 4.
Baa Humbug
That is Hansen’s standard trick. El Nino is climate, and La Nina is weather.
Plamen Petkov
July 2005-2009 were not unusually hot in Moscow. So yes, it is your imagination.
http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/UUEE/2005/7/30/MonthlyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA
http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/UUEE/2006/7/30/MonthlyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA
http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/UUEE/2007/7/30/MonthlyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA
http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/UUEE/2008/7/30/MonthlyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA
http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/UUEE/2009/7/30/MonthlyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA
Yesterday, our UK media was full of the latest incontrovertible evidence of unprecedented global warming. It was based upon the work od “100 scientists” so could not be wrong. Only problem was the press release eminated from UK Met Office and NOAA.
Looking forward to posting here about the “evidence”
Cheers
Paul
Plamen Petkov says:
July 29, 2010 at 10:04 pm
Yes, you are to dismiss the evidence of your own body telling you anything about temperatures.
1) It is only your body. Unless you are multidimensional, your body is only providing one data point. Or do we drop all pretense of a network of temperature measurements and simple use your perceptions of temperature and average it out over the globe?
2) Our perceptions are worthless in getting objective measures of temperature. For that matter, they’re fairly useless in measuring anything; mass, acceleration, brightness, etc. This is why thermometers were invented.
3) Are you sure you are not going through some sort of hormonal change in life? My wife has been complaining about the heat for the last few years. I just tell her it’s her change, she thinks about that, and agrees. Why don’t we use my wife’s perception of heat and drop all these discussions about temperature?
4) What’s so special about your body?
” NevenA says:
July 29, 2010 at 6:30 pm
Here is a non-cherrypicked graph of all datasets.”
If NevenA wanted to calculate the trend of sine x, he would start at -Pi/2 und end at Pi/2.
He would get something else if he went from peak (Pi/2) to peak (5Pi/2). It might even be correct.