Crickey! The year ain’t over yet mates. (h/t to Australian reader “Michael”)
Heh, you gotta love the headline. Of course when we keep finding climate stations like this one, which reads 5 degrees high and set new records, no wonder NOAA thinks we are headed for hotness.
Looking south: Note NOAA’s little “helper” – click
Even without the time warp, this news will be a tough sell in Australia, which has had a string of unusually cold weather records broken in the past weeks. For example Sydney just broke a 60 year old cold record.
Here’s the original press release from NOAA/NCDC posted below. How The Australian turned that into a whole year can only be explained by alarmism combined with shoddy journalism. At year-end, the story may very well be different.
NOAA: June, April to June, and Year-to-Date Global Temperatures are Warmest on Record
July 15, 2010
Last month’s combined global land and ocean surface temperature made it the warmest June on record and the warmest on record averaged for any April-June and January-June periods, according to NOAA. Worldwide average land surface temperature was the warmest on record for June and the April-June period, and the second warmest on record for the year-to-date (January-June) period, behind 2007.
The monthly analysis from NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center, which is based on records going back to 1880, is part of the suite of climate services NOAA provides government, business and community leaders so they can make informed decisions.
Global Temperature Highlights – June
-
High resolution (Credit: NOAA)
The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for June 2010 was the warmest on record at 61.1°F (16.2°C), which is 1.22°F (0.68°C) above the 20th century average of 59.9°F (15.5°C).
- The global June land surface temperature was 1.93°F (1.07°C) above the 20th century average of 55.9 °F (13.3°C) — the warmest on record.
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- Warmer-than-average conditions dominated the globe, with the most prominent warmth in Peru, the central and eastern contiguous U.S., and eastern and western Asia. Cooler-than-average regions included Scandinavia, southern China and the northwestern contiguous United States.
- According to Beijing Climate Center, Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang and Jilin had their warmest June since national records began in 1951. Meanwhile, Guizhou experienced its coolest June on record.
- According to Spain’s meteorological office, the nationwide average temperature was 0.7°F (0.4°C) above normal, Spain’s coolest June since 1997.
- The worldwide ocean surface temperature was 0.97°F (0.54°C) above the 20th century average of 61.5°F (16.4°C), which was the fourth warmest June on record. The warmth was most pronounced in the Atlantic Ocean.
- Sea surface temperature continued to decrease across the equatorial Pacific Ocean during June 2010, consistent with the end of El Niño. According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, La Niña conditions are likely to develop during the northern hemisphere summer 2010.
High resolution (Credit: NOAA)
April – June 2010 and Year-to-Date
- The combined global land and ocean surface temperature for April-June 2010 was 1.26°F (0.70°C) above the 20th century average—the warmest April-June period on record.
- For the year-to-date, the global combined land and ocean surface temperature of 57.5°F (14.2°C) was the warmest January-June period. This value is 1.22°F (0.68°C) above the 20th century average.
Polar Sea Ice and Precipitation Highlights
- Arctic sea ice covered an average of 4.2 million square miles (10.9 million square kilometers) during June. This is 10.6 percent below the 1979-2000 average extent and the lowest June extent since records began in 1979. This was also the 19th consecutive June with below-average Arctic sea ice extent.
- Antarctic sea ice extent in June was above average, 8.3 percent above the 1979-2000 average—resulting in the largest June extent on record.
- China had near-average precipitation. Regionally, Guizhou, Fujian and Qinghai had above-average precipitation during June 2010, resulting in the second wettest June since national records began in 1951—according to Beijing Climate Center. Meanwhile, the province of Jiangsu had its driest June on record, while Shanxi had its second driest on record.
- According to Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology, the continent had its fourth-driest June on record.
- The first six months of 2010 were the driest since 1929 for the United Kingdom, according to the UK Met Office. The average rainfall during January-June 2010 was 14.3 inches (362.5 mm), just 3.4 inches (86.8 mm) above January-June 1929. The January-June long-term average is 20.1 inches (511.7 mm).
Scientists, researchers and leaders in government and industry use NOAA’s monthly reports to help track trends and other changes in the world’s climate. This climate service has a wide range of practical uses, from helping farmers know what and when to plant, to guiding resource managers with critical decisions about water, energy and other vital assets.
Scientists, researchers and leaders in government and industry use NOAA’s monthly reports to help track trends and other changes in the world’s climate. This climate service has a wide range of practical uses, from helping farmers know what and when to plant, to guiding resource managers with critical decisions about water, energy and other vital assets.
Additional Information
June 2010 Global State of the Climate – Supplemental Figures & Information
NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the oceans to surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources.
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Christopher Monckton’s response to John Abraham is an excellent condensed source of basic information for a layman like me, on the shortcomings of the AGW hypothesis, for which I guess I should thank Professor Abraham.
I had previously not understood the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Pdoindex_1900_present.png and its effect on the global climate. Monckton refers to it on page 85.
If you look at roughly equivalent points on the PDO cycle, rather than arbitrary points in time like 1880 – 2010 (the extent of the GISTEMP record) or 1950 – 2010 (the presumed period of major human influence which begs the question anyway), the temperature rise could easily be attributed to the UHI effect, human GHG emissions, or simply to recovery from the LIA.
For instance the temperature rise from the peak of the 1905 – 1946 warm phase (c. 1940) to the corresponding peak of the 1977 – 1999 warm phase (1998) was ~ 0.6 C/century, hardly enough to run screaming through the streets about and a far cry from the average 3 – 4 C predicted for the next century by the IPCC.
http://woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:1940/to:1998/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:1940/to:1998/trend
As for The Australian (a News Corporation product), it’s the only daily worth reading and on climate, takes an editorial stance, I would say, close to the Copenhagen Consensus and Bjørn Lomborg.
The error may have been in good faith, because a few days ago GISS was trumpeting the claim that the past 12 months have been the warmest ever, so The Australian may have got these two claims mixed up.
It’s Christmas and I wish you all a happy new year!!!
The NOAA must have bi-polar disorder
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/glbT2mSea.gif
There’s no reason the “year” has to be tied to Jan-Dec. For the Ozzies, using Jul-Jun is more logical when referring to a year of weather/climate if you want to compare with an NH year.
So the only problem is in calling it 2010: had they said 2009/10 in the headline it would be fine.
On the opposite side of the globe the Finnish Broadcasting Company (YLE) makes the same mistake!
See http://svenska.yle.fi/nyheter/artikel.php?id=191150 and have it translated from swedish.
This is what is driving alaramism today. The alarmists in-the-know suspect a natural cooling swing (Mojib Latif et al) so let’s apply the precautionary principle before it’s too late. :o)
I notice that towards the end of The Australian news story we get the following:
. . . is 10.6 percent below the 1979-2000 average extent and the lowest June extent since records began in 1979. This was also the 19th consecutive June with below-average Arctic sea ice extent.
Given an around 31 year record, you’d expect on average about 15 years of below average extent. Consecutive implies even more below average years of extent lie unmentioned in the data. Relying upon my above average arithmetic talents, I’d say some of the above average years must have been doozies.
Kind of the opposite of Garrison Keillor’s Lake Wobegon, “Where all the women are strong, all the men are good-looking and all the children are above-average.”
RE: Photo: Perhaps there should be a durable neutral-albedo asphalt surface treatment applied within 200 meters of any such instrument.
no body with any brains believes the crap that you read in the papers any more .you only read them if you get them for free . I live in sydney and it is a cold winter down under
But make sure you also look critically at scientific challenges to what Monkton says before you make up your mind. Take a couple of the Monkton questions and go through them very closely, read what Monkton’s sources say (apparently you can e-mail him if he hasn’t included them), read what opposing sources say.
I did that, and I found I didn’t like what I saw… and I am not a climatologist either.
Re: “local” warming.
This is what the MET needs to get a barbecue summer.
On the topic of headlines (not climate or weather), New Hampshire TV station WMUR is reporting “victim of fatal car crash improving.”
(Car driven by 21 yr-old who never had a license slid into a utility pole while two passengers were leaning out the windows and got ejected, one died – presumably it’s the other one who is improving.)
KenB says:
July 15, 2010 at 11:48 pm
John Gorter says:
July 15, 2010 at 11:18 pm
“….More I think about it the more I smell political adjustments and jockeying for positions in the lead up to the election or postponing the election slightly to get the mix right. Anything is up for grabs in this one.”
____________________________________________________________
Lest those of you down under actually believe this GIGO. Here is what I found when I looked at mid North Carolina a mid-Atlantic state. Since “homogenizing” says one temperature represents a 1200K circle it should represent most of the east coast of the USA … Right?
I compared this year to 2004, that is as far back as Wunderground goes for Sanford NC since my goats ate their data. I count by July tenth 43 days over ninety F for 2004 vs 26 days for 2010, and four days of 98F in 2010 vs nine days of 98F in 2004. As you can see April and May were running cool only June was hot and July looks to be cooler than 2004 also.
Of course I have also noticed the “official temperatures” posted the next day are often 2 to 3 F higher than the actual data from the day before especially the lows.
If you look at the month of July including the forecast temps we are looking at one day of 96F (35C) and the rest of the time running 78F (25C) to 94F (34C) hardly the over 100F (38C) summer scorchers with long run of temps never under 90F (32C) I have seen here since I relocated in 1994. http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KTTA/2010/7/16/MonthlyHistory.html
Here is the closest “official” NASA – GISS station: Fayetteville NC an Army base city. You will notice the year 2004 was hardly the hottest year for this next of the woods.Actually eight out of the last nine years have been cool. No wonder all the data before 2004 got “disappeared”! They do not want use to check and see our memory of those scorcher summers with many days over 100F (38C) were correct.
Central North Carolina (Sanford)Monthly temps over 90F for.2004.&.2010
April 2010 (1)………..April 2004 (6)
1day – 91F……………..2 days – 91F
…………………………….4 days – 93F
May 2010 (4)………………May 2004 (17)
4day – 91F……………..6 days – 91F
…………………………….6 days – 93F
…………………………… 2 days – 95F
…………………………….1 days – 96F
…………………………….2 days – 98F
June 2010 (18)……June 2004 (11)
5 day – 91F……………1 days – 91F
5 days – 93F………….7 days – 93F
2 days – 95F……………none
2 days – 96F……………2 days – 96
4 days – 98F…………..1 days – 98F
July 2010 (3)…………..July 2004 (9)
1 days – 91F………………2 day – 91F
1 days – 93F…………….1 days – 93F
1 days – 96F……………none
none………………………6 days – 98F
For the whole month of July 2004 (24)
……………4 day – 91F
……………11 days – 93F
……………1 days – 95F
…………1days – 96F
…………2days – 98F
http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KTTA/2010/7/16/MonthlyHistory.html
Sanford weather is measured south and east of B. Everett Jordan Lake in lee county, the little shield shaped county in the middle of the state. Here are some maps of the area including elevation. http://geology.com/state-map/north-carolina.shtml
Why should I be impressed with or worried about a ‘warmest ever [insert minute / day / month /year / decade] on record’ that consists of a half-degree Celsius temperature anomaly – chosen from a baseline period where we know the world was warming from unusual cold – that is smaller than the margin of error of the instruments used to measure it, and utterly swamped by the variation in temperature in any part of the globe from day to day, month to month, year to year and season to season. This is even assuming surface temperature measurements are reliable and not polluted with arbitrary, ill considered adjustments for UHI. I have yet to see anything, peer-reviewed or otherwise that uses anything other than pure assertion and speculation (plus models) to claim that that this tiny variation in temperature could have any meaningful effect on the planet on a regional scale, or that it is historically unusual. Before anyone cries ‘Arctic sea ice’, show me some evidence that anything unusual is happening there too, melt or no.
Why keep so quiet about the time-scale of the surface ‘record’ you present as well? Reliable temperatures have been taken for hundreds of years, yet the ‘record’ beloved of AGW proponents begins at 1880. Why? Did the world begin in 1880? Are they invoking some new, extreme form of creationism to make their case? Trends, trends, trends. Every time I read a piece of grant-seeking alarmist propaganda, riddled with confirmation bias, assertion in place of observation and quiet, arse-covering get-out clauses, I get a bit annoyed and my body temperature increases 0.5 degrees C. Looking at current trends I am due to boil the atmosphere from the earth by 2015. It is worse than I thought.
Another example of cherry picking, NOAA riding the ENSO wave.
I am looking forward to using the same tactics at the bottom on the La nina wave which will also have solar & ocean influences.
I live in SE British Columbia and follow your website closely. I also read other sites relating to climate and weather. We live a life very close to nature with organic gardening and working outside most of the time. It has been a very cold spring and summer with morning temperatures well below what I have experienced in 40 years here. Last year our ice on the lake went out the latest 30 years. Australian weather seems to be similar. When I look at global temperature maps the dark red hot areas always seem to be mostly in the far north or some where few or no weather stations exist.
More evidence that replicating model results is completely meaningless. Unless and until every individual station is properly evaluated, SAT records are completely unreliable.
Defenders of the surface station network still don’ t get.
1F The HORROR!
Jay Lawrimore, Climate Analysis Chief at NOAA CLimatic Center: “Much of the [temperature] increase is due to increases in greenhouse gases.”
==========================================
This is the kind of a stuff that really burns me up.
Where in the HELL does a public servant, salaried by the hard-earned tax money Americans, get off in making a blatantly unscientific and juvenile statement like this…
….when no mechanism has been proved and no real world observations have ever EVER been been even close to produce to make the silly leap of faith that their models call for?
It is just madness. And that madness at the public dole….makes me madder.
Grrrrrrrrr.
Keep it up, you fools, and the longer-overdue darwinian death of this ridiculous line of “scientific” thinking, might take you down with it.
You still have time, to break free from the cult. The punch has not been poured yet.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
“Arctic sea ice covered an average of 4.2 million square miles (10.9 million square kilometers) during June. This is 10.6 percent below the 1979-2000 average extent and the lowest June extent since records began in 1979. This was also the 19th consecutive June with below-average Arctic sea ice extent.”
These factoids are heading towards absurd territory and will arrive at the border in 2012 when they announce we’ve had 21 consecutive below averages as compared their 21 year base.
Now that I think about it, announcing we’ve had 19 consecutive below average Junes in a 31 year period because of their arbitrary choice of base and when we started recording in a particular manner is retarded.
I find it easy to believe that The Keepers of Official Records have already penciled in what the final “average” temperatures will be for 2010, and now all they have to do is fake and fudge the readings enough to make sure that the final result comes out even with the pre-determined result.
Maybe the Australian’s only error was to let this slip out 6 months early.
“New Hampshire TV station WMUR is reporting “victim of fatal car crash improving.”
That’s like the headline “4 persons killed this weekend – 2 seriously!”
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/11/091112121611.htm
Interesting take on the record highs all across the world but instead WUWT focuses on there is a record low in the world. There has never been a statement that there will be no more record lows. But the statement of the rocord highs to record lows ratio will increase throughout the century till reaching a 50 nto 1 ratio by the end of the century.
We have increased to 2 to 1 over the last 30 years.
It’s funny, USAToday has the same alarmist tone covering the press release:
http://www.usatoday.com/weather/climate/2010-07-15-heat-record_N.htm
“warmest year on record”, “Arctic sea-ice reached an all-time low in June”, blah blah blah.
Of course they do not mention Antarctic sea-ice reaching a record extent FOR June!
NOTE: The following is not to denigrate the many MANY talented minds who work at NOAA, it is to poke fun at its condescending, predictably green, “quasi-private industry” tone of this stupid motto.
Original:
“NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the oceans to surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources.”
What is really being said when you weed through the Doublespeak:
NEW Version:
“Big Brother, knows better than anyone else, and relies heavily upon models at the purposeful expense of real world observations and honest surface temperature measurements, to predict greenhouse-gas-caused climate change, from the depths of the oceans to surface of the sun [as we know it all, and we’ve been there], and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources [even though our costal and marine resources dire condition, such as pollution and overfishing, are being purposely swept under the ‘Ocean Acidification’ rug.”
Chris
Norfolk, Virginia, USA