By Steve Goddard
NCEP is forecasting temperatures far above normal for the next week in Europe. I don’t think I have ever seen the Europe map so red before. This is a reflection of very warm sea surface temperatures west of Europe over the last month, as seen in the video below.
Meanwhile, South America is expected to be equally far below normal.
Sea surface temperatures west of South America have been running well below normal (developing La Niña.)
The Met Office should have stuck with their barbecue summer forecast. Sooner or later it was bound to happen.
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Christchurch New Zealand ,
We had a -6.2c frost the coldest in 3 years .
July avg sofar -1.4c on normal.
Despite the BBC TV weather people warning us last week of health risks associated with a coming heat-wave, my max-min thermometer in my back yard (an Urban Heat Island by definition) eventually struggled up to a max of 30C before cool weather sunk the mercury again. We have enjoyed a couple of weeks of evening barbecues and warm nights, but I am carefully watering all of our plants as the forecast rainfall just does not eventuate – we were supposed to have ‘torrential’ rain overnight, but both of my rain gauges agree at 1.3 cc, marginally above a ‘trace’.
Sure, 30C is uncomfortably warm for suburban London, but hardly life-threatening.
Roald says:
July 12, 2010 at 1:11 pm
Well, I suppose am reporting how people see the current weather and remember past weather. I suppose that in the averaging over a month the extremes that remain in memory and the series of days off the average are erased.
Everybody has been commenting on how cool this summer has been. Possibly if we hit a series of 37C we will be within the average for July which is not out yet.
Mind you Hellenicon is a former airport near the sea.
N.Philadelphia is inland and a heat trap, always warmer than our thermometers.
Steve,
Attention to South America. See http://www.metsul.com/blog/
It must really grind you, Sod, that the hot NH winter was perceived as cold. And it must grind you yet further that some alarmists used the snow as proof of ‘anthropogenic climate change’ even though such as Michael ‘Only in it for the Glory’ Tobis knew it was just the jet stream.
==========================
This is similar to the temperature drop from July 7th 2009 (which I predicted) and gave a rapid drop in S. Hemisphere temperature with hundreds dying from cold in S. America. Being caused by a drop in the solar signal, the N. Hemisphere also cooled, which led to significant floods in many places in the N.H. for the middle 2 weeks of July.
Roald
If you look at the raw data ahead of where the 13-month rolling average line ends you’ll see it’s been quite a bit cooler in 2010 than in 1998. The 13-month rolling average this year will not exceed 1998. I suspect NASA had just a moment in time where the previous 12 month average bested 1998 so not wanting to let a press release opportunity get away unexploited…
Mark
Cook is confusing interpretations of gravity data with “actual measurements.”
Sea level is (closer to) an actual measurement, and disagrees with the interpretations of gravity data.
The Hurricane heat potential is looking pretty wimpy in the Gulf, Atlantic, and Caribbean, too.
John F. Hultquist says:
July 12, 2010 at 6:07 pm
Steve –
“The deep blue of the South American map is at the top and mostly east of the mountains. Along the west coast the area is white, that is, normal. So the south-central blue (below normal) area, being east of the mountains ought not to be overly influenced by the Humboldt Current. ”
John, the issue is from which direction does the weather come from? Between 25N and 25S, the weather moves East to West. Below 25S and above 25N the weather primarily moves West to East. Every location is a little different than these numbers.
In South America, it is mainly anything below 20S that is affected by West to East weather. The Andes do provide some blocking, but it is still going to be influenced by the ocean conditions west of the continent.
Today, Argentina is rationing natural gas usage because of the colder weather.
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100713-713336.html
From the “European Weather Is Not Climate Except When You Look Long Enough Dept.” If you don’t already have this link you may want to take a look. The most interesting part, to me, was the inability to see a short term ‘trend’ (much like our predicament today). But there was one, and I guess, there still is!
http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/wxevents.htm
(Per Website Manager: “This site attempts to collect together in one place the most notable events in our ‘weather history’ across the British Isles. It has been built up in a rather ‘ad-hoc’ fashion, initially just for the latter third of the 20th century, then worked backwards as and when I stumbled across data etc., and of course kept up to date as far as possible.”)
Hi, there! I am from Brazil. Sao Jose dos Ausentes to be more precise. We had -7 C last week and are having +1C now with a -10C real feel on account of the wind. We are used to cold in southern Brazil at this time of the year. But not for so many days in a row.
Regards…