Hot in Europe – Cold in South America

By Steve Goddard

NCEP is forecasting temperatures far above normal for the next week in Europe. I don’t think I have ever seen the Europe map so red before. This is a reflection of very warm sea surface temperatures west of Europe over the last month, as seen in the video below.

Meanwhile, South America is expected to be equally far below normal.

Sea surface temperatures west of South America have been running well below normal (developing La Niña.)

The Met Office should have stuck with their barbecue summer forecast. Sooner or later it was bound to happen.

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Boudu

The ancients had a word for the effects you are describing: weather.
Who knew that it might be hot in summer while at the same time being cold in the antipodean winter.
Obviously more research is needed.
Please send money.

David, UK

The Met Office should have stuck with their barbecue summer forecast. Sooner or later it was bound to happen.
Indeed, even a broken watch is right twice a day.

Greetings from the currently overheated Central Europe – Pilsen, Czechia. It’s up to 36 deg Celsius in our cities but it’s kind of pleasant if you have access to swimming pools etc. We expect thundestorms and cooling as early as tomorrow but we could have tropical – above 30 deg C – temperatures for the big part of this week.

vigilantfish

If the cause of the above normal temperatures in Europe is above average sea surface temperatures west of Europe, why do England and Norway look so normal? Why is the hottest spot around Archangel and north-central Russia south of the White Sea? Interesting that the temperatures around the Mediterranean look so normal.

latitude

“The Met Office should have stuck with their barbecue summer forecast. Sooner or later it was bound to happen.”
I’m surprised they didn’t.
That’s what they practice, throw enough out there and something is bound to be right.
More snow, less snow
Hotter, colder
Wetter, drier
More ice, less ice
You name, they have it covered.
Love the link that RGates posted.
Now they ever have the next ice age covered.
Keep in mind this is New Scientist, ok. But the fact that they printed it says it all.
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn19155-soaring-arctic-temperatures–a-warning-from-history.html
“”At that time, CO2 levels are thought to have been close to current levels – around 390 parts per million – but global temperatures were around 2 to 3 °C warmer than today.
It was the last warm period before the onset of the Pleistocene glaciation,
and is used by climate researchers as a model for our future climate.””

Roald

This is interesting, especially since central South America has seen above average temperatures last week:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/wctan15.gif
And so has Europe:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/wctan1.gif

Pingo

The Met Office just refuse to issue seasonal forecasts now. Not because they were a contrary indicator, of course not. No – it was because the stupid public couldn’t understand them.

scow_bay

Coastal Europe, Iceland, Ireland, the UK and Norway appear to be mostly neutral to negative anomaly; no barbecue there. The higher Atlantic SST effects central Europe how, by a change in the jet stream? High pressure?

Roald

Be that as it may, NASA-GISS has anounced that the 12-month running-mean global temp has reached a new record in 2010, despite the recent solar minimum. But wait, didn’t NASA fake the moon landing, too?

DirkH

Imagine how hot it would be if we had not installed so many wind turbines and solar panels.

It makes sense gov; summer overhere, winter overthere .

gcb

Unrelated to this, but the surfacestations.org front page hasn’t been updated in almost a year. Did it get past the 82% at that time?

Yeah it’s been hot here in Germany, but cooler weather is the forecast.
But Joe Bastardi predicted a hot summer months ago for Europe, and is right.
And Europe isn’t the only pace heating up.
http://pgosselin.wordpress.com/2010/07/12/russian-scientists-sun-is-waking-up-solar-particles-reaching-the-earth-and-possible-magnetic-storms-possible/
Anthony and his team may want to expand on this.

Richard

Cold winters usually tend to bring warm summers. Winter here ( The Netherlands )was colder then the last ten.

peterhodges

Luboš Motl says:
July 12, 2010 at 10:45 am
Greetings from the currently overheated Central Europe – Pilsen, Czechia. It’s up to 36 deg Celsius in our cities but it’s kind of pleasant if you have access to swimming pools etc. We expect thundestorms and cooling as early as tomorrow but we could have tropical – above 30 deg C – temperatures for the big part of this week.

huh. you must be getting our summer. cold here in california-
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/lanow/2010/07/record-cold-at-lax-airport-as-july-gloom-continues-in-southern-california.html
Unusually cold temperatures in Southern California continued, with Los Angeles International Airport setting a record low on Friday.
LAX got to only 67 degrees, breaking a record set in 1926, according to the National Weather Service.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2010/jul/06/grsq-dreary-clouds-last-until-mid-week/
The temperature only reached 62 degrees in Oceanside Harbor. The record “low high” for this date is 65. That record was set in 2002. The harbor averages a high of 74 degrees this time of year.

Stacey

Cool Guys over at Un RealClimate unaffected by European Weather.
“The long-awaited and surprisingly thorough Muir Russell report (readable online version) was released this morning. We’ve had a brief read through of the report, but a thorough analysis of this and the supplemental information on the web site will have to wait for a day or so.”
Our Gav and his mate Mickey Taker are over the moon with Lord Muir of the Wash?
So I says:-
So this is cheering news boys?
When someone says delete the emails they mean save the emails? Obvious see.
When someone uses a trick to hide the decline they mean delete the inconvenient data? Well I never.
The report has as much value has the Widgery Report and Hutton Report?

john edmondson

The Met Office have predicted for 2010 “Climate could warm to record levels in 2010”
the website is still there
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2009/pr20091210b.html
though probably not for much longer, as this will prove to be about as accurate as their recent efforts.

Casper

Best greetings from Jülich in Germany. This morning there was…a sandstrom over the city. No, the sand wasn’t blown away from Africa, but from the next open cast mining.

Vincent

Roald says:
July 12, 2010 at 11:01 am
“But wait, didn’t NASA fake the moon landing,”
What have you been smoking?

rbateman

Notice that the base period for anomaly calculation is 1901-2000 CRU data set.
If you watch these things over a month or two, you’ll see them going off the deep trend end.
If it’s below normal, they’ll forecast snowball hell.
If it’s above normal, they’ll forecast fire & brimstone.
The grandmaster climate system easily crushes the hapless program.
The GCM’s are novice at the game, not being able to think more than 2 moves ahead.

Brad Johnson

If only there were some way to look at the global average temperature over a period of time to find out if these regional temperature fluctuations were part of a larger trend.

sod

Cold winters usually tend to bring warm summers. Winter here ( The Netherlands )was colder then the last ten.
the problem with this claim is a simple one: the winter in the northern hemisphere was WARM, not cold.
and the summer is also warm.
your rule is not a good explanation for the heat.
———————-
comparing Europe with South America is fine. but Steven could have mentioned the rest of the world, at least in one sentence.

anna v

Here in Greece we have had a cool June and a cool July up to now, temperatures rarely over 32degrees and mostly in unusual 27 28C. People are commenting that is September weather and not July.
It has been an air conditioned summer, i.e no need for it, since the nights are cool.
July usually hits over 37C for days, often reaches 40 and sometimes 45, so I think their anomalies are off.
Just listened for Athens and it gives 37 maximum tomorrow. I am by the sea and I doubt it will be 34C

We have had a pleasant warm summer with plenty of sunshine hours here in the northern UK. This has more to do with the jet streams moving south of us than sst’s being high though.

Ralph

Do we have a greater disconnect from the tropics than previously?
A European summers/winters usually have many Atlantic lows, bringing cooler moister weather in the summer, and warmer moister weather in the winter.
Now we have very few Atlantic lows, giving a cold dry winter/spring, and a hot dry summer.
Is the same happening in the S. Atlantic – I have not been following the weather patterns there.
.

Ulric Lyons

I forecast heat waves from 12th June, 27th June, another slight uplift from 3rd July, and had forecast a brief drop in the 2nd week of July, and a further moderate heat wave starting around mid July. It would be expected that any drop now would be quite dramatic in the S.H. with it being like N.H. February for them. This current drop is already being noticed in Europe, with temp`s dropping and rain increasing.
This was last week in S.America;
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/wctan15.gif (Roald)
what will it be like in a week or two? the solar signal moves fast.

anna v

Richard says:
July 12, 2010 at 11:07 am
Cold winters usually tend to bring warm summers. Winter here ( The Netherlands )was colder then the last ten.
Well, for Greece, I have noticed that if the winter is mild, the summer is cooler than usual.Our winter was mild and I was foreseeing a cool, i.e. no heat waves above 37, summer. Lets see how it turns out. Twenty years ago we hit a week of maximum 45C . That was something, but I do not remember the previous winter.
Maybe there is a law of conservation, “you get so much heat energy for the year, distrbute it well” 🙂

Bill Illis

Today’s SST map shows the developing La Nina pretty well and some of the points Steve is making.
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2010/anomnight.7.12.2010.gif
Related to South America, the Peru-Humbolt current which flows up the Chile/Peru coast from the southern ocean to the equator and partially into the ENSO area as well has really cooled off in the past week. There are a few 1.5X1.5 degree blocks which are -5.0C. This is certainly going to impact temperatures in the southern half of South America in the weeks ahead. The forecast is for it to cool off even more.
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_nlom32/navo/EQANMSST_nlomw129forc.gif

Dave Springer

Roald

Roald says:
July 12, 2010 at 11:01 am
Be that as it may, NASA-GISS has anounced that the 12-month running-mean global temp has reached a new record in 2010, despite the recent solar minimum. But wait, didn’t NASA fake the moon landing, too?

The following is graph through June 2010 of the UAH satellite average global temperature. It has a running 13 month average. At the end of June the running average was still below the 1998 peak caused by the mother of all El Ninos. I don’t know what data NASA is using or how they’re massaging it to get a record.
http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_June_10.gif

See the Brazilian good site on the sun, climate change and weather conditions ( Niño – Niña, ITCZ, weather, etc.) There is talk of the cold record this week:
http://sandcarioca.wordpress.com/

@Brad Johnson (11:22 am)
If only there were some way to look at the global average temperature over a period of time to find out if these regional temperature fluctuations were part of a larger trend.
You can build your own anomaly maps for specific time periods using GISS data here: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/ Use different timeperiods and compare (on multiple tabs)
Or if you dont’t mind looking at trend data you can look at the maps used to generate this post: http://diggingintheclay.wordpress.com/2010/01/18/mapping-global-warming/ Link to interactive versions of maps here: http://www.climateapplications.com/MapsGISS.asp

tommy

I live in middle part of Norway and i can definitely confirm that we have been running below normal for most of this summer. Been below normal for all months this year with exception of april.
Same with north western parts of norway as well.

Emil

Europe in the red ? In my part of Europe there were October temperatures until a couple of days ago, and even today it was not very hot, definitely not July hot.

Tom in Florida

rbateman says: {July 12, 2010 at 11:18 am}
“Notice that the base period for anomaly calculation is 1901-2000 CRU data set.”
Yes I did notice that right away. I also noticed it actually said:
“Normal temperature derived from CRU monthly climatology for 1901-2000”
Is this just egghead speak for “temperature records” or is it temperature that has been estimated via whatever method suited them at the time?

@anna v
We were just saying here too over the weekend that the weather (Northern UK) is more like September than July.
Twenty years ago we hit a week of maximum 45C . I remember that. Friends who went to Greece and said it was more of an experience than a vacation. I was writing my PhD thesis and was very glad I had elected not to go with them.

Jimbo

Look at the NOAA seasonal forecast for the next 8 months.
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/glbT2mSea.gif

molesunlimted

Sunday night was the coldest since records began in 1947 in the centre of New Zealand’s North Island. Lovely clear midwinter skies and brass monkey temps.

stephen richards

Tom in Florida says:
I noted that as well. If they calculated these anomalies from that whole period then everywhere will be RED.

frederik wisse

The answer , my friends , is blowing in the wind .

TomRude

Two sides of the same coin: High Pressures.
In winter, deep freeze; in summer, heatwaves. And this is not what the Global warming world is supposed to look like…

The Pacific dumped its heat last year via high surface temperatures. Now it looks like the North Atlantic is doing the same thing. This should show up in the average ocean temperature data not far down the road. Average ocean temps have been falling for several years, and will probably show a sharp drop this year.
Since 99% of earth’s heat carrying capacity is in the oceans, the average ocean temperature IS the earth’s temperature, within about 1%. We know definitively that the earth is cooling because the oceans are cooling. If only we had better ocean temperature measurements.
Question: I recently came across a statement that the satellite SST measurements use sea surface height to measure the temperature of the top 700 meters of ocean water (pretty much all the water that is subject to temperature mixing). Is this correct? I’m pretty sure this was from Pilke Sr. last month, but the link to his PDF is no longer functional so I can’t check (http://www.climatesci.org/publications/pdf/R-334.pdf).
In the discussions I have seen of ocean temperatures I have never come across this crucial tidbit before. Shaviv, for instance, has been looking at the use of tidal gauges for measuring temperature-driven expansion of the oceans, but his post on the subject last year made no mention that satellite “surface temps” actually measure the average temp of the top 700 meters:

It turns out that there are three different types of data sets from which the ocean heat content can derived. The first data is that of direct measurements using buoys. The second is the ocean surface temperature, while the third is that of the tide gauge record which reveals the thermal expansion of the oceans. Each one of the data sets has different advantages and disadvantages.

If Pilke (?) is correct, then it seems we actually have quite a detailed measure of average ocean temperatures, but NOT a good measure of actual, you know, surface temps. Which is it?

John Barrett

Hello all,
we hit 37degC here in north-eastern Austria ( between Vienna and the Czech border ). As I was coming home from the shops in the nearest town, I noticed that the tarmac on the main road in the next village was melting. Tsk it has only been laid a couple of years 🙂
Luckily my house is made of stone and was a pleasant 24 degC when I struggled home.
Late May and early June were terrible – it was just like November. We have the same weather as Lubos above and are expecting thunderstorms and the heat to continue for a few days yet.

1DandyTroll

Really, heat way?
Up until the last week we had almost 15C after midnight. For almost a week now we’ven’t gone as low as 23C after midnight. Funny thing is this usually happens around every mid july to beginning of august for a week or so every year. This is partly why the socialist of old stopped all work during july because it’s always too friggin hot to work in july, but of course it went along with the unions wanting vacations for the workers which was the main point. :p

sod
If you happened to live in Nunavut, the winter was “warm.” (Warm meaning -20C instead of -25C.) For most of the rest of us in the Northern Hemisphere, it was a cold winter.

Roald

Dave Springer says: July 12, 2010 at 11:50 am
Roald

Roald says:
July 12, 2010 at 11:01 am
Be that as it may, NASA-GISS has anounced that the 12-month running-mean global temp has reached a new record in 2010, despite the recent solar minimum. But wait, didn’t NASA fake the moon landing, too?
The following is graph through June 2010 of the UAH satellite average global temperature. It has a running 13 month average. At the end of June the running average was still below the 1998 peak caused by the mother of all El Ninos. I don’t know what data NASA is using or how they’re massaging it to get a record.

If you look carefully at the UAH graph, you’ll see that the running 13 month average doesn’t extend beyond the beginning of 2010, and it’s above the January 1998 reading.

Hansen was also crowing about record temps in 2007 – before La Nina hit.
What he doesn’t like to talk about is that temperatures have risen much slower than even his most conservative warming scenario.
Who cares if it is 0.01 degrees warmer than some other year? Especially when temperatures are about to plummet.

Roald

anna v says: July 12, 2010 at 11:34 am
Here in Greece we have had a cool June and a cool July up to now, temperatures rarely over 32degrees and mostly in unusual 27 28C. People are commenting that is September weather and not July.
It has been an air conditioned summer, i.e no need for it, since the nights are cool.
July usually hits over 37C for days, often reaches 40 and sometimes 45, so I think their anomalies are off.
Just listened for Athens and it gives 37 maximum tomorrow. I am by the sea and I doubt it will be 34C

I may be wrong, but according to the Greek National Meteorological service, the average temperature for July in Athens is 32°C and 33.5°C for Nea Filadelfia:
http://www.hnms.gr/hnms/english/climatology/climatology_region_diagrams_html?dr_city=Athens_Hellinikon
And if you can trust NOAA, then June was pretty much normal in Greece:
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/1ctan1.gif

roger

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html
Here in UK the CET anomaly, halfway through the 7th month is still negative and no remarkable daily highs have been reached.
Notwithstanding that AGW is barely mentioned in the MSM, the coalition government continues it’s renewable obligation taxation increases programme unremarked, and wilfully pushes wind and wave power whilst neglecting the putative nuclear providers, whose first station cannot now be readied until 2018.
The lights will go out long before that: indeed, without the French Interconnector supplying us nuclear powered electricity on a daily basis, the lights would be going out already.
This is what you get when you elect career politicians. Wind, Hot Air and then brownouts. God help us.

DirkH

Roald says:
July 12, 2010 at 1:03 pm
“[…]If you look carefully at the UAH graph, you’ll see that the running 13 month average doesn’t extend beyond the beginning of 2010, and it’s above the January 1998 reading.”
As El Nino is over, the 13 month average can only drop from where it’s now. So it won’t get as high as in 1998.
Since 1998, CO2 concentrations have risen by about 20 ppm, from about 368 to 389 today. But it hasn’t led to higher temperatures. IMHO this is a clear sign that a negative feedback counteracts any LWIR-trapping properties of CO2.
(GISS reports record temperatures, but they get their data from airports. They’re irrelevant.)

Richard

anna v says: at 11:45 am
Well, for Greece, I have noticed that if the winter is mild, the summer is cooler than usual.Our winter was mild and I was foreseeing a cool, i.e. no heat waves above 37, summer. Lets see how it turns out. Twenty years ago we hit a week of maximum 45C . That was something, but I do not remember the previous winter.
Maybe there is a law of conservation, “you get so much heat energy for the year, distrbute it well” 🙂
Its a rule of thumb the farmers use here but it seems to be very accurate.
Since the annual temperature doesn’t rise it seems logical that cold winters and hot summers eliminate each other thus keeping the temperature level.
@ Sod : Trust me , it was a cold winter here. I’ll send you my energy bill as proof if want.