By Steve Goddard
NCEP is forecasting temperatures far above normal for the next week in Europe. I don’t think I have ever seen the Europe map so red before. This is a reflection of very warm sea surface temperatures west of Europe over the last month, as seen in the video below.
Meanwhile, South America is expected to be equally far below normal.
Sea surface temperatures west of South America have been running well below normal (developing La Niña.)
The Met Office should have stuck with their barbecue summer forecast. Sooner or later it was bound to happen.
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
Very cold in South Island New Zealand.
Otago (S.I. Province) is in the grip of a persistent cold snap that has seen many towns in the region record air frosts nearly every day of the past three weeks.
The air frost temperatures were “pretty severe” even for July in Otago and were near record in places, Niwa climate scientist Georgina Griffiths said.
Dunedin Airport’s -6.7degC yesterday was the second-coldest July air temperature recorded at the site since 1947, and the -7.2degC at Queenstown was the third-coldest since 1871.
Watching these prediction models get it all wrong is getting fun. Locally our hurricane forecasters were hyping it up, you know we are all going to die. They are now silent.
What the predictions do is drive up people’s insurance costs, because they are based on what the NHC says is likely to happen.
Steve Goddard – FWIW here in west central Florida during Jan/Feb/Mar daily highs ran about 5 degrees C below the recent norm, and lows ran about 2 degrees C below, and we had several freezing nights. Some of our tropical shrubbery died, and colder than normal waters killed a lot of near surface corel farther south, to say nothing of chilled iguanas falling out of trees. April/ May were pretty normal. first half June was warmer than normal, followed by second half cooler, and July so far is about normal. Overall we are likely to have a pretty cool year for Florida.
Positive Weather Solutions correctly predicted a freezing winter 2009-10 and a BBQ summer. Now they are saying this coming European winter will be the same as the last.
Give them the trophy if they get it right again.
It’s chilly here in my part of South Africa.
tarpon says:
July 12, 2010 at 1:35 pm
Watching these prediction models get it all wrong is getting fun. Locally our hurricane forecasters were hyping it up, you know we are all going to die. They are now silent.
What the predictions do is drive up people’s insurance costs, because they are based on what the NHC says is likely to happen.””””
Yea but the NHC predictions are a moving target. They constantly adjust them, so by the end of the season, danged if they aren’t right again.
All of this reminds me greatly of the explanation of the observable universe according to Socrates and Ptolemy. The motions of “heavenly bodies” were explained by concentric crystalline (the “perfect” substance) spheres rotating at different angular velocities. Planets were not attached to the spheres themselves, but to circles attached to the spheres. (Termed “epicycles”)
As time passed, more and more epicycles, themselves attached to epicycles, had to be devised to explain observed movements. Circles within circles.
Devise circles and more circles, and you will soon find yourself running around in circles. Which is about where we are right now regarding global warming/cooling.
As far as considering the temperatures in other parts of the world, last I looked there were and are darned few thermometers to be “read”, and the confidence level that any of these few thermometer readings where there are thermometers to be “read” are done with any accuracy or discipline should be small to zero. That these few thermometer readings represent average temperatures over huge land masses is an absurd concept. With all of the government money spent here in the US on temperature measurements, Anthony and crew have demonstrated that even here there are significant problems in “getting it right”.
This site of Anthony’s is by far the best site to get any factual information about the global temperature condition, and the science involved, and is the most informative of any of them.
Thanks again, Anthony.
11:30PM, Prague, CZ
25.5°C outside
31.5°C inside
All windows are opened, but I can’t get the temperature down. 🙁
I need some A/C asap.
How long will your summer last?
We have been experiencing brass monkey weather in souther Australia, too. Surprise – it’s winter here! But it feel unusually cold to me, and I’ve been here for 81 years. Weather and seasons don’t seem to figure in the crazy modelling of the AGW crowd.
third timeI bbq’d allready this summer. Don’t think july 2006 is gonna be beaten.
I don’t care whose summer we’ve been getting by mistake here in the very south of England, we are just grateful to get two weeks of uninterrupted sunshine!
My veggie garden has rushed to catch to to where it should be and the roses are a delight to behold.
Had a BBQ this evening, nice thick steaks, mine done to French blue, hers to medium. Very pleasant Cab Sav on the side made a meal in the English gloaming an absolute experience. Had a thrush serenading us. Nice.
Would someone please keep track, and post something in about a week to show how well/wrong these predictions were? There doesn’t seen to be any accountability to these predictions. Having spent a total of 11 years in Europe, I know it can be unseasonably warm at times, but it usually cools down quickly.
latitude says:
July 12, 2010 at 10:48 am
…..Now they ever have the next ice age covered.
Keep in mind this is New Scientist, ok. But the fact that they printed it says it all.
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn19155-soaring-arctic-temperatures–a-warning-from-history.html
__________________________________________________
“These results should be alarming,” says Ballantyne.
That quote says it all /sarc
The greens in Europe are just showing their true colour.
sod says:
July 12, 2010 at 11:31 am
Cold winters usually tend to bring warm summers. Winter here ( The Netherlands )was colder then the last ten.
the problem with this claim is a simple one: the winter in the northern hemisphere was WARM, not cold.
and the summer is also warm.
your rule is not a good explanation for the heat.
_____________________________________________________________________
Sod, If last winter in the NH was so warm how do you explain this?
The “homogonized” and “adjusted” and “cherry picked” temperatures may have said it was a “warm” winter, Mother Nature and the news show what a big lie that was. Just like this graph. http://i31.tinypic.com/2149sg0.gif
“UP to 20 million farm animals may die in Mongolia before spring as the fiercest winter in living memory grips the country, International Aid Agencies warned today.” (half of Mongolia’s entire herd—may perish, , a quarter of a million animals and livestock died each week…
http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/million-farm-animals-freeze-to-death/story-e6frfku0-1225827780294#ixzz0tW2MH0HM
Snow cover 2008 vs 2010: http://www.robertb.darkhorizons.org/New%20Image.GIF
The USA had snow in all fifty states.
Lots of new cold and snow records in the USA this past week: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/12/13/lots-of-new-cold-and-snow-records-in-the-usa-this-week/
Severe snowstorms batter China: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/28/world/asia/28iht-china.1.9543336.html
“Severe snowstorms over broad swaths of eastern and central China have wreaked havoc on traffic throughout the country, creating gigantic passenger backups, spawning accidents and leaving at least 24 people dead, according to state news reports.
In many areas, where snow has continued falling for several days, the accumulation has been described as the heaviest in as many as five decades.”
In Canada, several all-time snowfall records were set during winter, reaching more than 550 centimetres (cm) in many locations, including Quebec City. In Toronto, it was the third snowiest winter on record for the past 70 years. At the end of January, Prince Edward Island was struck by one of the worst ice storms in decades.
“Canada freezes as snow storm strands thousands”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/13/2770207.htm
Long Range forecaster Mark Vogan predicts worst cold outbreak of the current decade for the northern plains down to Florida near when December ends.
http://markvoganweather.blogspot.com/2009/12/50-below-zero-air-too-close-for-comfort.html
Snow in Florida. Deep freeze in the deep south: http://www.examiner.com/x-11224-Baltimore-Weather-Examiner~y2010m1d9-Snow-in-Florida–Deep-freeze-in-the-deep-south
“Wintry weather sweeping across the Northern Hemisphere has slowed coal deliveries in parts of the U.S. South, where Texas is braced for record electrical demand and Florida eased truck rules to help farmers move their crops. “ http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a3aMFGtaK37w
The storm also may produce a record snowfall for Baltimore, which has 21 inches of snow so far, according to the National Weather Service…. http://edition.cnn.com/2010/US/weather/02/05/winter.storm/index.html
“Freak snow storm covers southern France” http://www.english.rfi.fr/france/20100505-surprise-snow-southern-france
Temperatures were glacial across Europe over the weekend, kills 22 across Europe
Freak snow falls in Spain strands 6000. March 9, 2010. AFP. A freak snowstorm dumped more than a metre of snow on the Pyrenees mountains. Spanish snow leaves 250000 without power
BBC News – Big freeze tightens its grip on England
major snow storm – bitterly cold united kingdom
Heavy snow claims over 30 lives in north China
A major snowstorm has battered Russia’s Pacific island of Sakhalin since New Year’s Eve, stranding almost 60 cars on the main highway… Snowfall in St. Petersburg breaks 130-year record… Heavy snow covers Moscow
Roald says:
July 12, 2010 at 11:01 am
No.
John Barrett says:
July 12, 2010 at 1:01 pm
….Late May and early June were terrible – it was just like November. We have the same weather as Lubos above and are expecting thunderstorms and the heat to continue for a few days yet.
____________________________________________________________
Same here in North Carolina. Cold in April and May and didn’t really get summer until June. It is still not as hot as it was in 2004. We are having a lot of thunderstorms the last couple of weeks which keep the temperatures down.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/8492333.stm
Steve —
The deep blue of the South American map is at the top and mostly east of the mountains. Along the west coast the area is white, that is, normal. So the south-central blue (below normal) area, being east of the mountains ought not to be overly influenced by the Humboldt Current. Would not the Brazil Current be of more influence in this region? The Falkland Current would be a cool influence but that area is not part of your map.
John F. Hultquist
NCEP’s map, not mine.
@roger says:
July 12, 2010 at 1:17 pm
http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html
Here in UK the CET anomaly, halfway through the 7th month is still negative and no remarkable daily highs have been reached.
_______________________________________________
0,11C behind after such a cold winter means a lot of catching up has taken place from April onwards. Its been years since we have had a number of days in the low 30`s.
Sod, If last winter in the NH was so warm how do you explain this?
The “homogonized” and “adjusted” and “cherry picked” temperatures may have said it was a “warm” winter, Mother Nature and the news show what a big lie that was.
all datasets show the northern hemisphere far above the average last winter. it is a fact. and you can not contradict it, by citing weather events.
if you think that GISS is manipulating their data, just take a look at Roy Spencer and UAH:
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2010/03/february-2010-uah-global-temperature-update-version-5-3-unveiled/
the last winter was hot in the NH. it is a fact.
REPLY: SOD, Dr. Spencer released V5.3 in response to issues raised here and elsewhere (on some blogs you frequent) about seasonal variations in the data, especially spring. I personally talked to him about the issue at ICCC2. You haven’t the faintest idea of what you are talking about. You are just spewing for the sake of saying something negative about “adjustments” in the context of UAH.
I suggest you go somewhere else you [self snip]. You have proven time and again you are incapable of adding anything useful here. -A
Terrible, terrible heat here in the Colorado Rockies: up to 21° C on sunny days.
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/sydney-shivers-through-its-coldest-morning-in-61-years/14542