Some people cite scientists saying there is a “CO2 control knob” for Earth. No doubt there is, but due to the logarithmic effect of CO2, I think of it like a fine tuning knob, not the main station tuner. That said, a new data picture is emerging of an even bigger knob and lever; a nice bright yellow one.
A few months back, I found a website from NOAA that provides an algorithm and downloadable program for spotting regime shifts in time series data. It was designed by Sergei Rodionov of the NOAA Bering Climate and Ecosystem Center for the purpose of detecting shifts in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.
Regime shifts are defined as rapid reorganizations of ecosystems from one relatively stable state to another. In the marine environment, regimes may last for several decades and shifts often appear to be associated with changes in the climate system. In the North Pacific, climate regimes are typically described using the concept of Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Regime shifts were also found in many other variables as demonstrated in the Data section of this website (select a variable and then click “Recent trends”).
But data is data, and the program doesn’t care if it is ecosystem data, temperature data, population data, or solar data. It just looks for and identifies abrupt changes that stabilize at a new level. For example, a useful application of the program is to look for shifts in weather data, such as that caused by the PDO. Here we can clearly see the great Pacific Climate Shift of 1976/77:
Another useful application is to use it to identify station moves that result in a temperature shift. It might also be applied to proxy data, such as ice core Oxygen 18 isotope data.
But the program was developed around the PDO. What drives the PDO? Many say the sun, though there are other factors too. It follows to reason then the we might be able to look for solar regime shifts in PDO driven temperature data.
Alan of AppInSys found the same application and has done just that, and the results are quite interesting. The correlation is well aligned, and it demonstrates the solar to PDO connection quite well. I’ll let him tell his story of discovery below. – Anthony
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Climate Regime Shifts
The notion that climate variations often occur in the form of ‘‘regimes’’ began to become appreciated in the 1990s. This paradigm was inspired in large part by the rapid change of the North Pacific climate around 1977 [e.g., Kerr, 1992] and the identification of other abrupt shifts in association with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) [Mantua et al., 1997].” [http://www.beringclimate.noaa.gov/regimes/Regime_shift_algorithm.pdf]
Pacific Regime Shifts
Hare and Mantua, 2000 (“Empirical evidence for North Pacific regime shifts in 1977 and 1989”): “It is now widely accepted that a climatic regime shift transpired in the North Pacific Ocean in the winter of 1976–77. This regime shift has had far reaching consequences for the large marine ecosystems of the North Pacific. Despite the strength and scope of the changes initiated by the shift, it was 10–15 years before it was fully recognized. Subsequent research has suggested that this event was not unique in the historical record but merely the latest in a succession of climatic regime shifts. In this study, we assembled 100 environmental time series, 31 climatic and 69 biological, to determine if there is evidence for common regime signals in the 1965–1997 period of record. Our analysis reproduces previously documented features of the 1977 regime shift, and identifies a further shift in 1989 in some components of the North Pacific ecosystem. The 1989 changes were neither as pervasive as the 1977 changes nor did they signal a simple return to pre-1977 conditions.”
[http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6V7B-41FTS3S-2…]
Overland et al “North Pacific regime shifts: Definitions, issues and recent transitions”
[http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/foci/publications/2008/overN667.pdf]: “climate variables for the North Pacific display shifts near 1977, 1989 and 1998.”
The following figure from the above paper show analysis of PDO and Victoria Index using the Rodionov regime detection algorithm. A regime shift is also detected around 1947-48.
The following figure shows regime shift detection for the summer PDO, showing shifts at 1948, 1976 and 1998.
[http://www.beringclimate.noaa.gov/data/Images/PDOs_FigRegime.html]
(For detailed information on the 1976/77 climate shift,
see: http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/The1976-78ClimateShift.htm)
Regime Shift Detection in Annual Temperature Anomaly Data
The NOAA Bering Climate web site provides the algorithm for regime shift detection developed by Sergei Rodionov [http://www.beringclimate.noaa.gov/regimes/index.html]. The following analyses use the Excel VBA regime change algorithm version 3.2 from this web site.
The following figure shows the regime analysis of the HadCRUT3 annual global annual average temperature anomaly data from the Met Office Hadley Centre for 1895 to 2009 [http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcrut3/diagnostics/global/nh+sh/annual].
The analysis was run based on the mean using a significance level of 0.1, cut-off length of 10 and Huber weight parameter of 2 using red noise IP4 subsample size 6. Regime changes are identified in 1902, 1914, 1926, 1937, 1946, 1957, 1977, 1987, and 1997. Running the analysis based on the variance rather than the mean results in regime changes in the bold years listed above.
Regime Shift Relationship to Solar Cycle
The NASA Solar Physics web site provides the following figure showing sunspot area.
[http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/SunspotCycle.shtml]
The following figure compares the Hadley (HadCrut3) monthly global average temperature (from [http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcrut3/diagnostics/global/nh+sh/]) overlaid with the regime change line (red line) shown previously, along with the sunspot area since 1900. The sunspot cycle is approximately 11 years. The sun’s magnetic field reverses with each sunspot cycle and thus after two sunspot cycles the magnetic field has completed a cycle – a Hale Cycle – and is back to where it started. Thus a complete magnetic sunspot cycle is approximately 22 years. The figure marks the onset of odd-numbered cycles with a vertical red line, even-numbered cycles with a green line.
From the figure above it can be seen that the regime changes correspond to the onset of solar cycles and occur when the “butterfly” is at its widest. The most significant warming regime shifts occur at the start of odd-numbered cycles (1937, 1957, 1977, 1997). Each odd-numbered cycle (red lines above) has resulted in a temperature-increase regime shift. Even-numbered cycles (green lines above) have been inconsistent, with some resulting in temperature-decrease regime shifts (1902, 1946) or minor temperature-increase shifts (1926, 1987).
An unusual one is the 1957 – 1966 cycle, which in the monthly data shown above visually looks like a temperature-increase shift in 1957 followed by a temperature-decrease shift in 1964 but the regime detection algorithm did not identify it. This is likely due to the use of annually averaged data in the regime detection algorithm.
The following figure shows the relative polarity of the Sun’s magnetic poles for recent sunspot cycles along with the solar magnetic flux [www.bu.edu/csp/nas/IHY_MagField.ppt]. The regime change periods are highlighted by the red and green boxes. Each one occurs on as the solar cycle is accelerating. The onset of an odd-numbered sunspot cycle (1977-78, 1997-98) results in the relative alignment of the Earth’s and the Sun’s magnetic fields (positive North pole on the Sun) allowing greater penetration of the geomagnetic storms into the Earth’s atmosphere. “Twenty times more solar particles cross the Earth’s leaky magnetic shield when the sun’s magnetic field is aligned with that of the Earth compared to when the two magnetic fields are oppositely directed” [http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/themis/news/themis_leaky_shield.html]
The following figure shows the longitudinally averaged solar magnetic field. This “magnetic butterfly diagram” shows that the sunspots are involved with transporting the field in its reversal. The Earth’s temperature regime shifts are indicated with the superimposed boxes – red on odd numbered solar cycles, green on even.
[http://solarphysics.livingreviews.org/open?pubNo=lrsp-2010-1&page=articlesu8.html]
The Earth’s temperature regime shift occurs as the solar magnetic field begins its reversal.
Solar Cycle 24
Solar cycle 24 is in its initial stage after getting off to a late start. An El Nino occurred in the first part of 2010. This may be the start of the next regime shift.
Climate Regime Shifts
[last update: 2010/07/04]
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“The notion that climate variations often occur in the form of ‘‘regimes’’ began to become appreciated in the 1990s. This paradigm was inspired in large part by the rapid change of the North Pacific climate around 1977 [e.g., Kerr, 1992] and the identification of other abrupt shifts in association with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) [Mantua et al., 1997].” [http://www.beringclimate.noaa.gov/regimes/Regime_shift_algorithm.pdf]
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Pacific Regime Shifts
Hare and Mantua, 2000 (“Empirical evidence for North Pacific regime shifts in 1977 and 1989”): “It is now widely accepted that a climatic regime shift transpired in the North Pacific Ocean in the winter of 1976–77. This regime shift has had far reaching consequences for the large marine ecosystems of the North Pacific. Despite the strength and scope of the changes initiated by the shift, it was 10–15 years before it was fully recognized. Subsequent research has suggested that this event was not unique in the historical record but merely the latest in a succession of climatic regime shifts. In this study, we assembled 100 environmental time series, 31 climatic and 69 biological, to determine if there is evidence for common regime signals in the 1965–1997 period of record. Our analysis reproduces previously documented features of the 1977 regime shift, and identifies a further shift in 1989 in some components of the North Pacific ecosystem. The 1989 changes were neither as pervasive as the 1977 changes nor did they signal a simple return to pre-1977 conditions.” [http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6V7B-41FTS3S-2…]
Overland et al “North Pacific regime shifts: Definitions, issues and recent transitions” [http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/foci/publications/2008/overN667.pdf]: “climate variables for the North Pacific display shifts near 1977, 1989 and 1998.”
The following figure from the above paper show analysis of PDO and Victoria Index using the Rodionov regime detection algorithm. A regime shift is also detected around 1947-48.
The following figure shows regime shift detection for the summer PDO, showing shifts at 1948, 1976 and 1998. [http://www.beringclimate.noaa.gov/data/Images/PDOs_FigRegime.html]
(For detailed information on the 1976/77 climate shift, see: http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/The1976-78ClimateShift.htm)
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Regime Shift Detection in Annual Temperature Anomaly Data
The NOAA Bering Climate web site provides the algorithm for regime shift detection developed by Sergei Rodionov [http://www.beringclimate.noaa.gov/regimes/index.html]. The following analyses use the Excel VBA regime change algorithm version 3.2 from this web site.
The following figure shows the regime analysis of the HadCRUT3 annual global annual average temperature anomaly data from the Met Office Hadley Centre for 1895 to 2009 [http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcrut3/diagnostics/global/nh+sh/annual].
The analysis was run based on the mean using a significance level of 0.1, cut-off length of 10 and Huber weight parameter of 2 using red noise IP4 subsample size 6. Regime changes are identified in 1902, 1914, 1926, 1937, 1946, 1957, 1977, 1987, and 1997. Running the analysis based on the variance rather than the mean results in regime changes in the bold years listed above.
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Regime Shift Relationship to Solar Cycle
The NASA Solar Physics web site provides the following figure showing sunspot area. [http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/SunspotCycle.shtml]
The following figure compares the Hadley (HadCrut3) monthly global average temperature (from [http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcrut3/diagnostics/global/nh+sh/]) overlaid with the regime change line (red line) shown previously, along with the sunspot area since 1900. The sunspot cycle is approximately 11 years. The sun’s magnetic field reverses with each sunspot cycle and thus after two sunspot cycles the magnetic field has completed a cycle – a Hale Cycle – and is back to where it started. Thus a complete magnetic sunspot cycle is approximately 22 years. The figure marks the onset of odd-numbered cycles with a vertical red line, even-numbered cycles with a green line.
From the figure above it can be seen that the regime changes correspond to the onset of solar cycles and occur when the “butterfly” is at its widest. The most significant warming regime shifts occur at the start of odd-numbered cycles (1937, 1957, 1977, 1997). Each odd-numbered cycle (red lines above) has resulted in a temperature-increase regime shift. Even-numbered cycles (green lines above) have been inconsistent, with some resulting in temperature-decrease regime shifts (1902, 1946) or minor temperature-increase shifts (1926, 1987).
An unusual one is the 1957 – 1966 cycle, which in the monthly data shown above visually looks like a temperature-increase shift in 1957 followed by a temperature-decrease shift in 1964 but the regime detection algorithm did not identify it. This is likely due to the use of annually averaged data in the regime detection algorithm.
The following figure shows the relative polarity of the Sun’s magnetic poles for recent sunspot cycles along with the solar magnetic flux [www.bu.edu/csp/nas/IHY_MagField.ppt]. The regime change periods are highlighted by the red and green boxes. Each one occurs on as the solar cycle is accelerating. The onset of an odd-numbered sunspot cycle (1977-78, 1997-98) results in the relative alignment of the Earth’s and the Sun’s magnetic fields (positive North pole on the Sun) allowing greater penetration of the geomagnetic storms into the Earth’s atmosphere. “Twenty times more solar particles cross the Earth’s leaky magnetic shield when the sun’s magnetic field is aligned with that of the Earth compared to when the two magnetic fields are oppositely directed” [http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/themis/news/themis_leaky_shield.html]
The following figure shows the longitudinally averaged solar magnetic field. This “magnetic butterfly diagram” shows that the sunspots are involved with transporting the field in its reversal. The Earth’s temperature regime shifts are indicated with the superimposed boxes – red on odd numbered solar cycles, green on even. [http://solarphysics.livingreviews.org/open?pubNo=lrsp-2010-1&page=articlesu8.html]
The Earth’s temperature regime shift occurs as the solar magnetic field begins its reversal.
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Solar Cycle 24
Solar cycle 24 is in its initial stage after getting off to a late start. An El Nino occurred in the first part of 2010. This may be the start of the next regime shift.
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Vuk etc. says:
July 14, 2010 at 11:56 am
J & S each have permanent polar aurora, meaning that they are constant load on the solar magnetic circuit.
And they are big planets with low densities.
Hmmmmm
Jupiter, Saturn, and Neptune , all emit energy as infrared radiation, more than they receive from the sun . It is thought that the energy is due to compression of the planets by high gravity, but scientists are not certain. Not convinced by the gravity theory.
I wonder what happens to the energy generated by the magnetic short circuiting, called ‘reconnection’, which btw is heath; that would contradict the experts.
Leif Svalgaard says:
July 14, 2010 at 7:40 am
Geoff Sharp says:
July 14, 2010 at 5:45 am
Surely you must wonder why the torsional oscillation flows look to be 17 years long.
————————————————————————————-
No, I don’t wonder, because the period is not 17 but 20-22 years. The only one we have a full cycle for started in 1987 and ended in 2009. The current one started in 1997. The poleward branch of the TO starts at minimum [or one year after] and the equatorial branch starts shortly after maximum and lasts until the second minimum thereafter. SO, the TO is tied to the 21-yr Hale cycle and maintains its phase. If the TO cycle was 17 years then we would have 6 cycles in a century, and only 5 Hale cycles, so the two cycles would drift relative to each other. Howard discovered the TO back in 1980 based on data from 1966 on, so we have enough data to pin down the period. “starting at the poles and taking a full 22-year Hale cycle to drift to the equator” [Howe, 2009]
I think we are talking about two different flows. My discussion is aimed at the slower moving (green/blue) belts that Howe mentions in her 2009 paper as around 18 years in flow length. Howard initially suggested 22 years but recent data confirms a shorter flow. Her full statement reads “They initially interpreted the high-latitude variations as consisting of bands of faster rotation starting at the poles and taking a full 22-year Hale cycle to drift to the equator.”
http://users.beagle.com.au/geoffsharp/doppler.jpg
The slower zones go all the way to the Tachocline and are now seen as the important area where sunspots are formed. I may have had something to do with this discovery as I sent my butterfly/zone overlay to Howe Feb 2009 who later reconstructed her own version with Hill and released it during a press conference. Her earlier 2009 paper states:
“Although the equatorward-migrating bands of faster rotation are clearly
associated with the migrating activity belts of the magnetic butterfly
diagram,”
Showing how she has changed her thinking.
My original article here: http://landscheidt.auditblogs.com/2009/02/25/latest-solar-differential-rotation-information/
These slower moving zones that probably vary in timing length due to solar angular momentum look to be generated at the Tachocline, there appears to be a regular pattern that controls the 11 year cycle as the whole flow is not utilized. Discovering what is the underlying cause of these slower flowing zones should give us the answers that so far science has not been able to resolve.
Ulric Lyons says:
July 14, 2010 at 9:06 am
@Geoff Sharp says:
July 14, 2010 at 7:10 am
“Show me where I have said the alignment affects 2 cycles after the event?”
————————————————————-
SC24.com probably, I can`t be bothered to hindcast that just now, the point is any delay, be it 1 or 2 cycles is just an excuse for not finding the cause of a downturn, and blaming it on something that happened earlier.
So you misrepresent me and then cant be bothered to back up your statements?
If you took the time to familiarize yourself with my work it becomes obvious how important timing of the AMP event is. There has only been 3 of these perturbation events that can be compared with reliable sunspot data. If the event occurs on the downslope after cycle max as in SC4 & SC23 obviously its too late to impact greatly on that cycle.
tallbloke says:
July 14, 2010 at 2:36 pm
Vuk etc. says:
July 14, 2010 at 11:56 am
J & S each have permanent polar aurora, meaning that they are constant load on the solar magnetic circuit.
And they are big planets with low densities.
Hmmmmm
______________________________ Reply;
The total external magnetic fields of the sun extend to the boundaries of the heliopause, closer in than this ~2 light years, the effects of the constant coupling of the slow rate near DC magnetic fields, maintains the angular momentum, measured both by orbital velocity, and LOD for each of the planets. The total power invested in these fields are a result of the total mass of the magnetically susceptible material in each body, balanced back to the sun’s ratio of internal to external fields.
At synod conjunctions the resistance to electromagnetic conduction of external fields from the sun decreases and coronal holes open to send out lines of magnetic force to maintain the balance. The homopolar generator effects regulate the sum total of the solar systems angular momentum, by accommodating the shifts in magnetic current flux with the short term variances in LOD and / or angular momentum in orbital velocity.
At 8 light minutes out from the sun the Earth is quite susceptible to these shifts in magnetic fields strength that is continuous, nearly instantaneous, and on going in cyclic patterns that can and have been measured. The composite of the variable component is small compared to the continuous near DC that regulated and is regulated by the back ground Constancy of the composite orbital velocities, and the angular momentum of the whole solar system, sun included.
What we see as the flux variations is but the noise on top of the elevated voltage of a very clean power supply, run on homopolar generator effects that have come to a harmonic synchronization over the past 4+ billion years, because this back ground level of connection is near DC and steady it is not measurable, as other than the background magnetic flux, seeking a balance with the background fields of the galaxy.
To see the solar cycle as anything other than the turbulence felt by the solar internal fields to these flexes in the external fields, is not going to very productive. To see the driving effects on the earth’s climate as anything less than the sum of these influences on the energy budget, and ion flux in the atmosphere, transferred through the lunar declinational tidal effects, to the global circulation patterns that result, as a compounding of these cyclic forces, is the way out of the current lack of understanding on how the weather works and turns into climate with time.
Richard Holle says:
July 14, 2010 at 10:35 pm (Edit)
The total external magnetic fields of the sun extend to the boundaries of the heliopause, closer in than this ~2 light years, the effects of the constant coupling of the slow rate near DC magnetic fields, maintains the angular momentum, measured both by orbital velocity, and LOD for each of the planets.
Yes, this is the thought that struck me yesterday. The heliosphere’s rotating interplanetary magnetic field helps maintain and regulate the planetary motion, and this is the reson why we see all the interesting almost whole small number relationships between planetary orbital periods and rotations that link to simple series like the fibonacci series. Then the planets, being in harmonic resonant relationships with each other and the Sun, participate in feedback loops which affect levels of solar activity, which in turn affect the strength of the assistance the IMF gives to maintaining the planetary orbits.
In this way we can see that the solar system truly is a system, with internal negative feedbacks which regulate the output of the Sun at a steady level. Because all such systems, both natural and manmade, oscillate about a mean, this is why the Sun’s visible sunspot cycles sometimes ‘run ahead’ of the planetary alignments, and sometimes lag behind.
Thank you Richard for the clarity of your insight and explanation. The final sentence in your response is complex. Did you mean to say “nothing less than” rather than “anything les than”?
We are straying into territory which will raise static, I’m going to put up the exchange between Myself, Vuk, and you as a new post on my blog. Please come over and discuss this further there.
Thanks.
tallbloke says:
July 14, 2010 at 11:22 am
if this solar wind of yours is strong enough to blow away anything trying to head upstream, how much does it drag does it create on planets moving at right angles to it? Over 4 billion years?
There is no significant drag. Quite the contrary: the solar wind’s magnetic field is transferring angular momentum from the sun to the planets, moving them to larger orbits, slowing down the Sun in the process. Today this effect is extremely slow and has effectively stopped, but when the sun was young and the solar wind was thousands of time stronger this was a very efficient process.
Vuk etc. says:
July 14, 2010 at 11:56 am
Nonsense; the Earth or Venues are never eclipsed by Mercury.
Last time that happened was Nov.8 2006 for Mercury, and Jun 8, 2004 for Venus [next one June 5, 2012]
Vuk etc. says:
July 14, 2010 at 12:11 pm
But electromagnetic have no problem.
We can see Jupiter, so, yes, light has no problem, but Jupiter shine [or radio waves] is very feeble and hardly cases sunspots.
Geoff Sharp says:
July 14, 2010 at 5:45 am
You don’t need to invoke Rachel changing her mind. The TO is synchronized with the sunspot cycle: the polar branch always starts at minimum, and the equatorial branch peters out two minima later. That the start and end can be weak and hard to observe does not change that fact. If the TO-cycle were 17 years, the each poleward branch would start 17 years after the previous. This does not happen.
Leif Svalgaard says:
July 15, 2010 at 12:03 am
tallbloke says:
July 14, 2010 at 11:22 am
if this solar wind of yours is strong enough to blow away anything trying to head upstream, how much does it drag does it create on planets moving at right angles to it? Over 4 billion years?
There is no significant drag. Quite the contrary: the solar wind’s magnetic field is transferring angular momentum from the sun to the planets, moving them to larger orbits, slowing down the Sun in the process. Today this effect is extremely slow and has effectively stopped, but when the sun was young and the solar wind was thousands of time stronger this was a very efficient process.
I carefully used the word drag to create ambiguity. 😉
Th rotation of the sun is faster than any of the planetary orbits. Therefore the solar wind sweeping past the planets effectively ‘drags’ them round with it, helping to maintain their orbits against the ‘drag’ of the effects that are trying to slow them down.
I agree that the strong part of the effect moving the planets to higher orbits has slowed down and effectively stopped, but I contend that this is a dynamic equilibrium, a balance against the forces tending to drag the planets to lower orbits (spin orbit couplings, mutual perturbances etc that end up as heat in planetary cores),
I disagree that the forces no longer operate, are not significant, and most of all I disagree that they are unimportant.
tallbloke says:
July 15, 2010 at 12:31 am
Th rotation of the sun is faster than any of the planetary orbits. Therefore the solar wind sweeping past the planets effectively ‘drags’ them round with it, helping to maintain their orbits against the ‘drag’ of the effects that are trying to slow them down.
No, that is not how it works. The ‘drags’ are also too weak at present to have any effect.
(spin orbit couplings, mutual perturbances etc that end up as heat in planetary cores),
There are no spin orbit couplings, as we have shown so many times.
I disagree that the forces no longer operate, are negligible, and most of all I disagree that they are unimportant.
This should not a issue of contention, as these forces can be, and have been, calculated precisely, showing them to be negligible on relevant time scales. If you look carefully at JPL’s Horizon site, you will see that these forces are not included [too small].
L.S. Re: Vuk etc.
You do talk nonsense.
1.Those are dates of astronomical alignments not eclipses (which according to your ‘shadow’ statement should have been total) ! Planets shadows diminish with distance since the sun happen to be much larger body.
http://www.practicalphysics.org/imageLibrary/jpeg500/2158.jpg
2. Electromagnetic wave is a magnetic change too!
It was never implied that light causes sunspots.
Twisting other’s words was perfected by J.McC, but I prefer Chubby Checker’s version:
Vuk, come on over to my place where we can discuss it without having the waters muddied by misdirection, obfuscation and general misbehaviour.
http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2010/07/15/understanding-the-solar-system-as-a-true-system/
tallbloke says:
July 14, 2010 at 11:29 pm
”Thank you Richard for the clarity of your insight and explanation. The final sentence in your response is complex. Did you mean to say “nothing less than” rather than “anything les than”?
________________________Reply;
The comment window is too small to edit better before submitting,
“”To see the driving effects on the earth’s climate as nothing less than consideration of the sum total of these influences on the energy budget, and ion flux in the atmosphere, transferred through the lunar declinational tidal effects, to the global circulation patterns that result, due to interactive compounding of these cyclic forces, is the only way out of the current lack of understanding on how the weather works and turns into climate with time.””
Better?
Richard Holle
Leif Svalgaard says:
July 15, 2010 at 12:03 am
You don’t need to invoke Rachel changing her mind. The TO is synchronized with the sunspot cycle: the polar branch always starts at minimum, and the equatorial branch peters out two minima later. That the start and end can be weak and hard to observe does not change that fact. If the TO-cycle were 17 years, the each poleward branch would start 17 years after the previous. This does not happen.
Rachel obviously thinks different to you, and your statements do not follow her graphs.
Leif Svalgaard says:
July 15, 2010 at 12:03 am
the solar wind’s magnetic field is transferring angular momentum from the sun to the planets, moving them to larger orbits, slowing down the Sun in the process.
tallbloke says:
July 15, 2010 at 12:31 am
The rotation of the sun is faster than any of the planetary orbits. Therefore the solar wind sweeping past the planets effectively ‘drags’ them round with it, helping to maintain their orbits against the ‘drag’ of the effects that are trying to slow them down.
Leif Svalgaard says:
July 15, 2010 at 12:46 am
No, that is not how it works.
I’m always ready to learn from you. So how does it work then, in your understanding?
@Geoff Sharp says:
July 14, 2010 at 9:38 pm
“If you took the time to familiarize yourself with my work it becomes obvious how important timing of the AMP event is. There has only been 3 of these perturbation events that can be compared with reliable sunspot data. If the event occurs on the downslope after cycle max as in SC4 & SC23 obviously its too late to impact greatly on that cycle.”
Well if you knew about the importance of the relationship between the Superior and Inferior planets, you could map monthly temperature deviations from normals with great certainty through all of SC24 and get some good clues to spotting-the-solar-regime-shifts-driving-earths-climate/ in real time, every month!
Leif Svalgaard says:
July 15, 2010 at 12:46 am
There are no spin orbit couplings, as we have shown so many times.
We?
I would not be so sure. There is ample evidence the door is not closed on this issue.
http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/79
“We” are working in the background with more results to come.
@ur momisugly@Geoff Sharp says:
July 14, 2010 at 9:38 pm
“There has only been 3 of these perturbation events that can be compared with reliable sunspot data.”
You are not really thinking that Saturn opposite Jupiter/Uranus/Neptune in 1970 made it colder in 1979-81 and 1985-87 are you?
The PDO regime shifts in this discussion are very similar to what can be seen in the 90yr AO, with slightly different seasonal sensitivity; http://jisao.washington.edu/ao/
Vuk etc. says:
July 15, 2010 at 1:15 am
1.Those are dates of astronomical alignments not eclipses (which according to your ‘shadow’ statement should have been total) !
They are annular eclipses. The Moon has those too.
2. Electromagnetic wave is a magnetic change too!
It was never implied that light causes sunspots.
There is more energy in the reflected sunlight than in the magnetic field from Jupiter. What makes light is the Displacement Current term in Ampere’s law [1st Maxwell Eq.]. No displacement current, no electromagnetic waves. The displacement current is the time derivative of the electric field, and in a plasma can be ignored [the MHD approach] because any variation of the electric field is immediately countered by plasma oscillations that obliterate the electric field. Another way of putting this is to note that typical plasma velocities are much less than the speed of light. The displacement current can be approximated by D = B/L * (V/c)^2, where L is a characteristic length, B the magnetic field and V the plasma velocity.
Geoff Sharp says:
July 15, 2010 at 5:24 am
Rachel obviously thinks different to you, and your statements do not follow her graphs.
I know Rachel very well [colleagues] and she does not think differently: the polar branch begins at solar minimum. The equatorial branch starts later, but is still in synch with the cycle. If you look at http://solarphysics.livingreviews.org/Articles/lrsp-2009-1/fig_24.html you can see the two ‘halves’ of the TO, each lasting 11 years. At the top [and bottom] you can see the polar branch starting in 1997. Follow it along until is disappears in 2005, at which time the equatorial branch forms [dips down towards lower latitudes. You can then follow the eq. branch [albeit from the previous cycle] all the way across the plot for 11 years, making the whole cycle 21 years long. The polar branch starts at solar minimum.
If the cycle were 17 years, then the polar branch should restart every 17 years, and the TO would quickly get out of synch [phase] with the solar cycle.
tallbloke says:
July 15, 2010 at 7:07 am
<"No, that is not how it works.
I’m always ready to learn from you.
Except that you don’t. If you did we would not have this exchange.
So how does it work then, in your understanding?
First: the is no ‘drag’ as the density is MUCH too small and the planets are too large.
2nd: the solar wind transfers angular momentum from the Sun to the planets via the magnetic field, thus causing the planets to recede from the Sun. This effect is at present negligible [but was not in the distant past].
Ulric Lyons says:
July 15, 2010 at 7:30 am
You are not really thinking that Saturn opposite Jupiter/Uranus/Neptune in 1970 made it colder in 1979-81 and 1985-87 are you?
Your question seems confused, the Sun obviously slowed down dramatically during SC20 as a result of the the weak AMP event of the era. It was also a cooling time in conjunction with a weak PDO. The latter years you suggest have no consequence.
Ulric Lyons says:
July 15, 2010 at 7:20 am
Well if you knew about the importance of the relationship between the Superior and Inferior planets, you could map monthly temperature deviations from normals with great certainty through all of SC24 and get some good clues to spotting-the-solar-regime-shifts-driving-earths-climate/ in real time, every month!
Your knowledge is paramount, predicting SC24 will be higher than SC23?
Leif Svalgaard says:
July 15, 2010 at 8:10 am
I know Rachel very well [colleagues] and she does not think differently: the polar branch begins at solar minimum. The equatorial branch starts later, but is still in synch with the cycle. If you look at http://solarphysics.livingreviews.org/Articles/lrsp-2009-1/fig_24.html you can see the two ‘halves’ of the TO, each lasting 11 years. At the top [and bottom] you can see the polar branch starting in 1997. Follow it along until is disappears in 2005, at which time the equatorial branch forms [dips down towards lower latitudes. You can then follow the eq. branch [albeit from the previous cycle] all the way across the plot for 11 years, making the whole cycle 21 years long. The polar branch starts at solar minimum.
If the cycle were 17 years, then the polar branch should restart every 17 years, and the TO would quickly get out of synch [phase] with the solar cycle.
You push this line often, but I have never seen one of your “colleagues” back you up on this site…not once.
Instead I see you arguing with venom any scientist that appears on WUWT?
Anyone can see the flows do not last 22 years as Rachel says….It would be enlightening to have a reasonable exchange, but perhaps that is not possible?
Geoff Sharp says:
July 15, 2010 at 9:04 am
You push this line often, but I have never seen one of your “colleagues” back you up on this site…not once.
No need to, as my arguments speak for themselves. But perhaps you forget Rypdal…
Instead I see you arguing with venom any scientist that appears on WUWT?
Apart from Scafetta [who has debunked by the Rypdals] who might that be?
Anyone can see the flows do not last 22 years as Rachel says….
We can try: who cannot see this: http://solarphysics.livingreviews.org/Articles/lrsp-2009-1/fig_24.html you can see the two ‘halves’ of the TO, each lasting 11 years. At the top [and bottom] you can see the polar branch starting in 1997. Follow it along until is disappears in 2005, at which time the equatorial branch forms [dips down towards lower latitudes. You can then follow the eq. branch [albeit from the previous cycle] all the way across the plot for 11 years, making the whole cycle 21 years long. The polar branch starts at solar minimum.
It would be enlightening to have a reasonable exchange, but perhaps that is not possible?
Looks like it is not.
A 2 L.S.
You are off with your nonsense rather then concentrate on the science. US navy knows what they are talking:
Study this and keep up with developments:
http://wwwppd.nrl.navy.mil/prediction/cloud.gif
and here is what interior contains
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/REU/2008/ewolf/presentation/images/magnetic_cloud.jpg
more details on the structure here:
http://history.nasa.gov/SP-345/ch15.htm#250
and here is what US navy teaches their scientists:
The helical curve illustrates a characteristic magnetic field line. Magnetic clouds may indeed be structurally simple as depicted here. Recent observations indicate that magnetic field lines of magnetic clouds do remain connected to the Sun and that the field lines toward the outer edge of a flux rope are more twisted [Larson et al., 1997]. This property is implied by the model structure and the magnetic field described below.
Clearly electric current and magnetic field form a close circuit solar surface – magnetosphere – solar surface.
Electric current can flow only if the circuit is closed, in this case it originates at the sun and returns back to it. That may not be what you know or believe but it is what other scientists think.
Any interference on that path, like it or not, it will be reflected directly to the source and that is known as feedback.
Do yourself a favour and don’t waste your valuable time and extensive knowledge on your pet trivia, the ‘Jupiter shine’.