Alex – first Atlantic Hurricane of 2010

To help you keep an eye on it, I have the satellite imagery here along with animated loops.

Click image for full size or animate this image: Click for loop>>>

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WTNT31 KNHC 300231

TCPAT1

BULLETIN

HURRICANE ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER  18

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL    AL012010

1000 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010

…ALEX BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2010 SEASON AND THE FIRST JUNE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SINCE 1995…

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION

———————————————–

LOCATION…23.1N 94.8W

ABOUT 195 MI…315 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO

ABOUT 255 MI…415 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…973 MB…28.73 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

——————–

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…

* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO

GRANDE

* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR…

* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR

* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED

STATES…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE

MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE

UNITED STATES…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL

METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

——————————

AT 1000 PM CDT…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ALEX WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 94.8 WEST.  ALEX HAS MOVED

MOSTLY WESTWARD NEAR 9 MPH…15 KM/HR…OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT

A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO

48 HOURS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF ALEX WILL APPROACH

THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OR SOUTHERN TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY AND

MAKE LANDFALL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATE WEDNESDAY OR

WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH…120

KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ALEX IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE

SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS

FORECAST PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  ALEX WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER ITS

CENTER CROSSES THE COASTLINE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES…30 KM…FROM

THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175

MILES…280 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE

HUNTER PLANE WAS 973 MB…28.73 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

———————-

RAINFALL…ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS

OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN

TEXAS…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES.  THESE RAINS

COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES…

ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.  RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ALEX

ARE SPREADING ONSHORE IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS.

WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST

WITHIN THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS BEGINNING LATE

TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY…MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT

OR DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE…A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY

AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST

TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.  THE SURGE COULD

PENETRATE INLAND AS FAR AS SEVERAL MILES FROM THE SHORE WITH DEPTH

GENERALLY DECREASING AS THE WATER MOVES INLAND.  NEAR THE COAST…

THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

TORNADOES…ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME

SOUTHERN TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY

————-

NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY…100 AM CDT.

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…400 AM CDT.

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I find it amazing that today the world connectivity allows me to get notified of this bulletin, publish this post, and include live satellite content all from a coin operated net kiosk at Melbourne Airport.

We live in interesting times.

Anthony

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20 thoughts on “Alex – first Atlantic Hurricane of 2010

  1. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
    * THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
    GRANDE
    * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ
    Unfortunately, I don’t see that region in the satellite video.
    –ryanmaue–fixed for Anthony

  2. Surprising. Only 75 kts. Based on the level of alarmism by the weather readers I’ve heard the last day or two, talking about how unprecedented the gulf temperatures are, I’d almost expected this thing to form as a cat 5 and get stronger from there.
    Should have done what I usually do and looked at the wx data myself.

  3. I think you should have a widget showing Dr. Hansimian’s prediction and that of NOAA. Then you add the official hurricane counter to it… let there be a winner!

  4. Hurricanes don’t respond to SST anomalies, but the underlying SSTs themselves. While the Gulf is a degree C or two warmer than usual for late June, early July, the variability is large. But the depth or heat content typically isn’t sufficient for long-lived major hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico until late July.
    The by-product of this storm will be a lot of precip over a large portion of the Eastern and Central Gulf which will cool the surface SSTs and provide fresh water on top. Coupled with the cloudcover and stronger winds to enable mixing of cooler water from below, Alex will end up being a net cooler on the Gulf and take down the SST anomalies a bit.
    The Eastern Pacific saw Celia and Darby before/during Alex, part of a trio of storms associated with a favorable MJO pattern. It’s likely we are in store for a lull in both basins for the next week or ten days at least. Note that the Western Pacific has not seen a full fledged Typhoon yet, and only one-tropical storm.

  5. I guess every tropical cyclone needs to be closely watched….but frankly it cracks me up the amount of attention given to this one and others like it get…just because it has a name.
    There are temperate-latitude extratropical cyclones that do more damage from time to time and they never get a name: ( i.e. any gale hitting the west coast that records cat-2 or 3 strength gusts at Cape Blanco, OR or wherever).
    Point being is that just because a storm has a name….does not mean its a story. But hey….I’m glad people are getting educated on nature’s might one way or the other.
    Just don’t overblow it, NOAA and CNN…or when you do you will realize you have cried wolf too often and when the next Katrina, Ike, Rita, Wilma, Hazel, or Camille lurks, nobody will be listening because of the false alarms.
    PROPOSAL: Names should be ONLY reserved for tropical cyclones that actually reach hurricane strength. That would make it a little easier to digest.
    Yeah….I hear the Allison / Houston protests now.
    But let me ask you this question: “So are the billion-dollar(!) damages from the early-May extremely devastating floods in Nashville going to get a name too?”
    Not unless we start naming thunderstorm complexes.
    Chris
    Norfolk, VA, USA

  6. Two and a half years ago I forecast the precipitation we are getting today in the USA.
    Forecasts are still running good and will be solid till Mid August when the Synod conjunction of Jupiter, Uranus and Neptune, add energy to the Lunar declinational tidal bulges and get the total strength of the Tropical Storms above Cat 2.
    Then back to the usual Lunar declinational tidal influences till Last week of March 2011, which translates to bone chilling cold winter in NH again.

  7. I’ve come out of my cave long enough to say: gee, no wonder it’s been pouring rain up here in Arlington, Texas for the last two days. And I’ll be “pouring” inside for the next two days, too.

  8. savethesharks says:{June 29, 2010 at 10:36 pm}
    Hi Chris,
    It’s not just the winds, it is storm surge, extremely heavy rain and spin off twisters.
    Even land falling tropical storms can produce these effects.
    But I do agree that far too often the weather reporting media, especially the Weather Channel, go overboard. How many times have we seen one of their reporters standing on a beach days before trying to dramatize a calm and peaceful setting. A guess when you have a budget for this you just can’t wait to spend it.
    On the brighter side, perhaps we just may get a little wave riding action on Florida’s west coast.

  9. We are already getting rain bands ahead of it in southern New Mexico. And I am viewing your post, including all the video and animations via a wireless DSL link to my local WiFi router, on my iPhone. 

  10. Hey that Alex it is not following Al Baby’s model for hurricanes, it’s running counterclock wise, HE cannot be wrong, HE is a Nobel laurate!

  11. Bet this one will eventually jump start the monsoon in the SW. Time for the Hopis to get their Corn Dance gear ready….

  12. Sincerely… Something is wrong with this “Alex”. It barely is class 2 and the Media is comparing it with Gilberto and Emily. We are wet here and expecting the “worst” sprinkle for tomorrow.

  13. NOAA is buying a lottery ticket for another 2005 like big outbreak to keep the CAGW going, the problem is they are now thinking Numbers in the teens to twenties for named storms, so that is what they are shooting for.
    My guess would be more like 8 to 10 real named storms and 3 above cat 2 making landfall, for the Atlantic basin this year.
    The bulk of their basis for these numbers is the past active solar cycles, and banking that low numbers of hurricanes are not usual for three or four years in a row, ( the slot machine should be about to something big soon.)
    Correlation may not be causation, but I have seen repeating patterns in which the normal TS production (TS and Cat 1-2 storms) happens when there is a lunar declination culmination, but close to or just after a Synod conjunction with one or more of the outer planets, the extra energy drives the maximum storm energy into the Cat 3-4- and 5 range.
    This year we had a conjunction with Saturn on the 22nd of March, spawning three weeks of strong storms and flash floods globally, but will not be seeing any other until the three other outer planets all come together between the 20th of August and the 21st, 22nd and 24th of September 2010.
    This should give us a break in intense tropical storms until Mid August, then we will see a rapid uptick in activity until the peak of these effects are over in late October.
    If I am correct in the electromagnetic nature or the production of this increased activity, there will be a significant chance of a solar storm that will disrupt power grid systems of Europe and North America ON the 21st of September. (pinpoint date forecast for Lief’s benefit)
    Then with no other outer planet synod conjunctions until April 3rd 2011, Saturn again, I expect to see another bone chilling cold winter till the spring outbreak of tornadoes and severe weather, accompanying it from last week of March till 15th of April, and the subsequent warm up.
    (Details of how and why I think this works is covered in the research section of the website that comes up when name link is clicked.)

  14. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH…120
    KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALEX IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.
    Bizarre statement from HURRICANE ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 18.
    If the winds are ‘near 75mph’ then it’s not a hurricane is it?

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