By Steven Goddard,
In my last post, we discussed how there has been no visible change in the landfast ice near Barrow, AK. during the last week.
The University of Alaska has been tracking breakup of this ice for the past decade. The latest breakup was July 11 which occurred last year. The earliest breakup occurred in 2004 on June 16. They have devised a model which forecasts the breakup, based on solar radiation already received and forecast into the future by NCAR’s WRF weather model. Their current forecast has it breaking up after July 10, which would at a minimum tie the record.
http://seaice.alaska.edu/gi/observatories/barrow_breakup
The current WRF forecast is predicting very cloudy conditions near Barrow through mid-July.
http://seaice.alaska.edu/gi/observatories/barrow_breakup/Barrow_SW.png
Temperatures in Barrow have been running well below normal this summer.
http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/PABR/2010/6/25/MonthlyHistory.html#calendar
This has been largely due to cloudiness. The current view of Barrow is seen below.
http://seaice.alaska.edu/gi/observatories/barrow_webcam
Long term weather forecasts change all the time. But for those of you expecting a big melt this summer, I hope you didn’t bet a lot of money on it.
GISS extrapolations assume that Arctic weather is nearly uniform. Pretty funny to see the same crew complaining about sparse data now.
stevengoddard says:
June 26, 2010 at 1:25 pm
GISS extrapolations assume that Arctic weather is nearly uniform
…..
I take it that you aren’t aware that the distance from oceanbottom up to the sealevel even in good condition are at least +/- 48 meters depending on where our Earth are in the loob around the sun….. not to mention that in any given second the distance from oceanbottom up can be between 8- 28 meters +/- depending on the distance to the moon and the angle…..
If that’s one thing you better learn and learn quickly this is it: NO GISS extrapolation can be used to assume the Arctic weather to be even close to uniform. I take it that you haven’t studied the loogs of the ones who first tried to reach the North Pole. If you had, you would have known just how stupied such a comment of yours are in real life!
Do we have to have minamal ice loss this year or all is lost for us anti AGWers? Didn’t we have a strong El Nino this year? So what if we lose some extra ice this year, which I think we will. Take two steps froward and one step back. That’s how global cooling is going to happen. Chill out everybody. Joe Bastardi where are you? You seem to make the most sense, why don’t you post here once in a while?
norah4you
It is pretty clear from your comment that you have no idea what a GISS extrapolation is. So rather than calling people “stupid” you might want to try t0 get a clue about what it is that is being discussed.
At that point you might be able to follow the conversation.
stevengoddard says:
June 26, 2010 at 3:12 pm
It’s pretty clear Steven Goddard, that you aren’t aware that I have been dealing with this things from 1971. I managed to stop stupid comments like yours 1979 but of course than my platform was an other than today. I was active in a political party, the Liberals back then.
Never try to step on someone who first studied computer science in 1970 and who also studied maths and other things on the way. Not to mention that my own father, now dead since jan 2008 was one of the real scholars in this type of questions from 1957 on forward. I grow up with all the documentations and studies you missed from 1957 up to now I haven’t missed much printed in English, German, French, Dutch, Norwegian, Swedish and Icelandic. Don’t ever try that stupid Ad Hominem again. You better present valid arguments for your assumption that one point is enough.
And btw – I was given for free the first computer programs using GISS extrapolation.
Was yo`?
stevengoddard says:
June 26, 2010 at 1:22 pm
It does appear that melt ponds have appeared at the North Pole, about two or three weeks later than normal.
Based on the data over the life of the NPEO program (since 2002) it appears to be about average (early for the appearance of widespread melt pond coverage).
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/detect/ice-npole.shtml
” The onset of melting is typically in early June”
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/detect/ice-npole.shtml
norah4you
Well thein yew must theenk GISS ees reel stupied to extrepolate 1200 km frum one pint in the Arcteec.
norah4you says:
“[…]
Swedish and Icelandic. Don’t ever try that stupid Ad Hominem again. You better present valid arguments for your assumption that one point is enough.”
The GISS extrapolation method goes back to Hansen, not to Steven Goddard. You say it’s no good? Fine. Take the complaint to James Hansen.
@ur momisugly norah4you
Always good to see a humble person singing their own praises LOL.
You sound like a Jack of all trades – Master of none! Is there anything that you haven’t done?
Steve Goddard,
You sure have guts. Every time there is some sort of odd event, it seems there is someone ready to grab a microphone and predict flaming, screaming death for us all…by the end of the century. All very official, scientific, thrilling, exciting, yet the speaker will never have to eat crow.
Occasionally there are predictions of gloom and doom that are made in shorter increments (ice-free arctic by 2013; specific droughts/floods); the prophet can get out of that one by maybe saying we have “better models” and point his/her finger at some other alarming phenomenon as a substitute. (See, it didn’t FLOOD in the US Midwest, there was a DROUGHT in India. My newer, better models show that this drought was brought on by shifts in ……”).
But you, on the other hand, have made predictions that will shown to be either right or wrong in the next few months. I also have to respect your specific methodology for predicting the summer arctic minimums. You make a lot of sense to a layman, and once again we’ll all see soon enough if you’re right. Thank you for keeping this entertaining!
CRS, Dr.P.H. says:
June 26, 2010 at 12:27 pm
………..
At what point do the icebreakers become implicated in the Arctic ice breakup?”
I would really like to have this question answered also. It might be having no impact at all but it seems to me that if we have had an increase in icebreaker activity in arctic waters over the past 30 years this would have an adverse impact to a vulnerable ice pack. How is multi-year ice supposed to grow when we have icebreakers coming in and breaking apart the pack each summer?
Not saying its a primary cause but it sure cant be helping. Surely if ice breakers cut long channels through first year ice its going to make the pack break up faster?
norah4you says:
June 26, 2010 at 1:42 pm
“….If that’s one thing you better learn and learn quickly this is it: NO GISS extrapolation can be used to assume the Arctic weather to be even close to uniform. I take it that you haven’t studied the loogs of the ones who first tried to reach the North Pole. If you had, you would have known just how stupied such a comment of yours are in real life!”
_____________________________________________________________________
The comment refers to this article and others: GISScapades
stevengoddard says:
June 26, 2010 at 3:40 pm
” The onset of melting is typically in early June”
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/detect/ice-npole.shtml
Their data shows otherwise, exactly as I posted. Here’s the continuation of that sentence which in your typically devious way you chose not to quote:
“but occurred in late July in 2002, and late June in 2003 and 2004. The Web Cam images show very limited melt pond coverage in 2002, but widespread melt pond coverage in 2003 and 2004. In 2003, the melt ponds were widespread by July 4, but diminished in late July, and then reformed in mid-August. Freezeup began in late August in 2002, Sept 7 in 2003, and in mid-August in 2004. Summer sea ice transition information was not available for 2005 or 2007.”
In 2008, the snow became waterlogged June 25, and extensive meltponds formed quickly, only five days later (June 30). Meltponds are still observed August 25 in standard web cam images. After that time, the only clear images are from another webcam with a fisheye lens observing sky conditions, but also revealing snow conditions. Meltponds are visible on the fisheye image from September 14. Although further images are at least partially obscured by water drops or snow on the lens, there appears to be snow cover in an image from Sepember 22. In summary, in 2008, the onset of melt progressed more quickly than in previous years, and melt ponds persisted longer and later than usual.
In 2009, the snow became soft and meltponds started to form July 8, but never became very widespread, with the maximum meltpond extent observed around July 14-16.
So over the lifetime of the program we have: late July in 2002, and late June in 2003 and 2004, N/A in 2005 & 2007, June 26 in 2006, June 30 in 2008, July 8 in 2009 and June 25 in 2010!
Phil,
Do you really think the three metres of ice at the North Pole is going to melt through?
The Arctic Basin melts radially inwards, starting at Barrow and other similar locations at lower latitudes. That is why places like Barrow are interesting this time of year. If Barrow doesn’t melt early, a low minimum is going to be tough to achieve.
David says:
June 26, 2010 at 4:30 pm
CRS, Dr.P.H. says:
June 26, 2010 at 12:27 pm
………..
At what point do the icebreakers become implicated in the Arctic ice breakup?”
I would really like to have this question answered also. It might be having no impact at all but it seems to me that if we have had an increase in icebreaker activity in arctic waters over the past 30 years this would have an adverse impact to a vulnerable ice pack. How is multi-year ice supposed to grow when we have icebreakers coming in and breaking apart the pack each summer?
As you can see below the Canadian icebreakers don’t operate in the Canadian Arctic until next month by which time the breakup is substantially under way. Last year the yachts entered the NW Passage from the west before the first icebreaker.
Chart of service for the Canadian Arctic
# Area Name Period dd/mm
A01 Hudson Bay 03/07 – 24/10
A02 Foxe Basin 20/08 – 15/09
A03 Hudson Strait 03/07 – 24/10
A04 East Baffin 14/08 – 18/09
A05 Parry Channel East 10/08 – 15/10
A06 Parry Channel West 10/08 – 15/10
A07 Pelly 12/08 – 13/10
A08 Ellesmere 24/08 – 05/09
A09 Victoria 12/08 – 13/10
A10 Beaufort 25/07 – 25/09
A11 Barrow 25/07 – 25/09
A12 West Greenland 05/07 – 15/08
http://www.ccg-gcc.gc.ca/eng/CCG/Ice_Service_Dates
But for those of you expecting a big melt this summer, I hope you didn’t bet a lot of money on it.
I get the sense that those most ardent about ‘rotting ice’ aren’t the type to put their money where their mouth is.
bhanwara says:
June 26, 2010 at 7:21 am
A model? You’re relying on a model?
I have myself. But she (they) were kinda difficult. If you were to have a jet it helps a lot.
Phil. says:
June 26, 2010 at 9:19 am
Interesting that there was a boat off the beach at Barrow yesterday.
Ya, boats, water, weird to see them together. They probably came ashore to do some sunbathing as R. Gates has told us the Arctic is enjoying “warm conditions”.
stevengoddard says:
June 26, 2010 at 12:27 pm
Some people think that their incessant talk will melt the ice.
Nah, it just melts one’s desire to read their comments.
Steve,
Calving and any major break-up of ice-shelves are evidently the result of mechanical failures from tidal and wave action etc.
For sea-ice, it seems to me, (a mechanical engineer), that in similar ways, within the limits of definition of the images shown, that the sea ice loss is greatly accelerated by mechanical failure. These mechanical failures are the consequence of various dynamics, and once they occur, ice loss becomes more rapid for a multitude of reasons. For just one important variable, see for example this late 2007 NASA release:
EXTRACT: “…Nghiem said the rapid decline in winter perennial [Arctic] ice the past two years was caused by unusual winds. “Unusual atmospheric conditions set up wind patterns that compressed the sea ice, loaded it into the Transpolar Drift Stream and then sped its flow out of the Arctic,” he said. When that sea ice reached lower latitudes, it rapidly melted in the warmer waters…”
As an ex back-country skier, I can also attest that strong winds late in the season can cause very rapid loss of snow cover…. and there was an earlier comment about rapid disappearance of lake ice in Colarado with just a couple of windy days
Steve, you have lost. Admit that CO2 causes GW, and that the Arctic will be the lowest on record this year instead of distorting the facts.
-G.W.
Sorry, my comment above, read in last line: Colorado
Boy,
These ice-related posts seem to draw the most response from the warmists. Must not be much to do during the week at the NSIDC. Our tax dollars at work. Or, rather, the loan money from China, at work.
Steve, as a geologist I of course don’t buy the AGW narrow selection of data to support their alarmist view of the present trends of temp and CO2. Eventhough a gaggle of phyicists seem to have discovered climatology about 30yrs ago and believe they invented it, they must be aware that a 150yr sample of a 4Byr “record” is cherry picking in the extreme. Do they believe Hannibal crossed the Alps through tens of metres of snow? No his elephants ate of abundant high alpine grasses in the Roman warm period … Do they not wonder how (or know) that only some 12000yrs ago 50 million cu km of ice melted from the arctic and the sealevel rose 130m with anthropus probably numbering a million or two. It has been considerably warmer and considerably colder in the past. Steve, don’t choose only a few month’s data to say something about years of ice cycles. Make your prediction and relax. It will say absolutely nothing about the way of the world one way or the other. Also, don’t criticize the GISS silly extrapolations of temp across the Arctic and then resort to it yourself. Finally don’t disrespect our Norwegian visitor (norah4U). Norwegians did invent the Arctic and Antarctic and every child in Norway knows more about the polar regions than most adults anywhere else.