By Steven Goddard,
In my last post, we discussed how there has been no visible change in the landfast ice near Barrow, AK. during the last week.

The University of Alaska has been tracking breakup of this ice for the past decade. The latest breakup was July 11 which occurred last year. The earliest breakup occurred in 2004 on June 16. They have devised a model which forecasts the breakup, based on solar radiation already received and forecast into the future by NCAR’s WRF weather model. Their current forecast has it breaking up after July 10, which would at a minimum tie the record.
http://seaice.alaska.edu/gi/observatories/barrow_breakup
The current WRF forecast is predicting very cloudy conditions near Barrow through mid-July.
http://seaice.alaska.edu/gi/observatories/barrow_breakup/Barrow_SW.png
Temperatures in Barrow have been running well below normal this summer.
http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/PABR/2010/6/25/MonthlyHistory.html#calendar
This has been largely due to cloudiness. The current view of Barrow is seen below.
http://seaice.alaska.edu/gi/observatories/barrow_webcam
Long term weather forecasts change all the time. But for those of you expecting a big melt this summer, I hope you didn’t bet a lot of money on it.




Keith G said: (about Steve Goddard)
“You make a lot of sense to a layman…”
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That’s why people with a little more knowledge must come here to actually give the facts, versus a bit o’ cherry picked data…
Amino Acids in Meteorites says:
June 26, 2010 at 6:08 pm
Phil. says:
June 26, 2010 at 9:19 am
“Interesting that there was a boat off the beach at Barrow yesterday.”
Ya, boats, water, weird to see them together. They probably came ashore to do some sunbathing as R. Gates has told us the Arctic is enjoying “warm conditions”.
But according to Steve G this beach is ice-bound!
Phil,
You are really turning into a comedian. I particularly liked this one.
“Last year the yachts entered the NW Passage from the west before the first icebreaker.”
Hey folks — how about we go for the science instead of commenting on people and their supposed abilities or lack thereof. Comments from a number of different people sound like they are from Real Climate. I think this site is above that level!
you can see the satellite image, can’t you Phil?
You do see the ice that he is talking about
http://climateinsiders.files.wordpress.com/2010/06/barrow2.gif?w=510&h=322&h=322
You can see a small segment without ice
I don’t see where Steven Goddard said there is no open segment. I do see him talking about how the ice that is along the coast is not changing. “no visible change in the landfast ice near Barrow, AK. during the last week.”
I think everyone can read the post for themselves. Are you a troll Phil?
Wel here’s the latest;
Jun 26, 2007
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/cgi-bin/seaice-monitor.cgi?lang=e&mode=img&size=L&date=set&y=2007&m=6&d=26
Jun 26, 2010
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/cgi-bin/seaice-monitor.cgi?lang=e&mode=img&size=L&date=set&y=2010&m=06&d=26
IMHO 2010 looks worse than 2007.
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/pips2/archive/mag/2010/mag_2010062600.gif
Still spinning like a top and ejecting sea ice into the Atlantic like there’s no tomorrow.
There is always ice moving out into the North Atlantic. Otherwise we would find ice many thousands of years old in the Arctic Basin.
stevengoddard says:
June 26, 2010 at 10:24 pm
There is always ice moving out into the North Atlantic. Otherwise we would find ice many thousands of years old in the Arctic Basin.
___________________________________________________________
You sure that wouldn’t be trillions of years?
First I think it’s fair to say that while I do critizes Steven using his inproper methods, I by no means belive that CO2 is a problem. It isn’t. The inproper methods used by the climatebelievers aren’t better. What’s more is that both sides forgotten to read what was known in for example 1900 and what the figures for CO2 then, before our modern usage of cars etc increased the usage of oil, to be in for example 1995-2000.
I take it that many people here, on both sides, forgotten that there haven’t been any real rising in CO2-levels for the last 120 years. How come you wonder. And my answer is to go back to around 1900 in order to find the first alarmist. One of those who were a scholar in many disciplines, in fact all needed except that he never lived into our days to learn about computers but that’s one down and many many ups for him even then.
You better learn that Svante Arrhenius born 1859 (d. 1927) Professor of Chemistry as well as Physics, one of the men behind modern physical science, Nobelprize winner and a lot of other things including the dark side of him believing in racism, also known as the first alarmist believed that the figure 0.04 % by late 20th century should have reached close to 2 %…. Btw. 0.04 % it’s the round figure today as in 1920’s and in late 19th century….. the only figure in the raw behind that’s been changing one-two ‘levels’ up and down is the sixth figure behind the ‘.‘ never ever causing a rise up along the raw to 0.05 as round figure for co2 average around the world. On minor level such as within citizes and close to industries yes, but not on a major level.
Before continuing I suggest both sides to read:
Arrhenius Svante, Naturens värmehushållning : Föredrag, Stockholm Norstedts 1896
Arrhenius Svante, Les atmosphères des planèts. : Conférence faite le 8 mars 1911.; Paris 1911
Arrhenius Svante, Klimatets växlingar i historisk tid, Stockholm 1915
Arrhenius Svante, Uber den Einfluss des atmosphärischen Kohlensäure-gehalts auf die Temperatur der Erdoberfläche. Stockholm, 1896. Bihang till K. Sv.Vet. akad. handl. Bd. 22: Afd.1: no 1.
Arrhenius Svante, Uber die Wärmaebsorption durch Kohlensäuer und ihren Einfluss auf die Temperatur der Erdoberfläche. Stockholm 1901 Vet. Akad. K. Sv., Öfversigt af förhandlingar. 58(1901): No 1: [4].
Arrhenius Svante, Die Chemi und das moderne Leben / von Svante Arrhenius ; Autorisierte deutsche Ausgabe von B. Finkelstein. Mit 20 Abbildingen im Text. Leipzig : Akademische Verlagsgesellschaft, 1922
The known figures for different chemical substances on our globe was in 1920’s as well as today gives following readings:
34.6% – Iron
29.5% – Oxygen
15.2% – Silicon
12.7% – Magnesium
2.4% – Nickel
1.9% – Sulphur
0.05% – Titanium
…..
0.018% Carbon (one of the 20 most common on Earth)
Now the figure for atmospheric gases:
Nitrogen 78.08%
Oxygen 20.95 %
Argon 0.93%
Carbondioxid 0038%
Neon 0002%
Helium 0.0005%
Methane 0.0002%
Krypton 0.0001%
Hydrogen 0.00006%
What alarmist have done an masse, is mixing the figure for carbon percentage on planet earth with the figure for CO2 in athmosphere. Not to mention that more than one, in fact almost all, of the alarmist managed to miss that a circle proof doen’t prove anything at all.
That said I think it’s fair in the present debate to inform you all that reality back in 1956 gave more ice breakups than ever today. The easiest way to start looking for this is in this quote: (many academic work been written about the breakingups between 1956 and the peak in 1959. Too qualified texts and often in German or French to be quoted and discussed here…)
“Antarctica shed a 208-mile-long berg in 1956
One of the largest known Antarctic icebergs broke off in 1956. Julie Palis and Guy Guthridge of the Naitonal Science Foundation and Lyn Lay, the librarian at Byrd Polar Research Center, found an article about it in the Polar Times, vol. 43, page 18.” Själv hittade jag artikeln i USATODAY – Antarctica shed a 208-mile-long berg in 1956, USTODAY 20 januari 2005 ”
That’s said the next thing to be remembered is that our planet Earth have approximate 70% water surface…. Up to today there never ever been correct readings from more than 1% stationary weather stations, stationary on same GPS-readings, taking readings 1 meter down/up as well as 3 meter down/up not to mention 10 meter up/down. All figures needed to give a correct ‘picture’ of the temperature on each single point. Same up figures as well as surface figures goes for Arctic’s and Antarctic’s inner parts up to 1950’s….. It’s a disaster that some even believe that there exists correct readings from for example the North Pole and the South Pole BEFORE any humans known to have reached them…. but unfortunatly that’s to be found as facts within more than one of the computer models 😛
All that said, I guess it’s time to make you all realise that the temperature in the Arctic between 980 AD to 1341 was 1-3 degrees up from today’s average….. In fact it was possible for the Scandinavian vikings to farm on ‘Garden under Sandet’ in Greenland:
”Most of the Viking expansion took place during what scientist refer to as the dimatic optimum of the Medieval Warm Period dated ca, A.D. 800 to 1200 (Jones 1986: McGovern 1991); a general term for warm periods that reached chere optimum at different times across the North Atlantic (Groves and Switsur 1991). During this time the niean annual temperature for southem Greenland was 1 to 3°C higher than today.” Julie Megan Ross, Paleoethnobotanical Investigation of Garden Under Sandet, a Waterlogged Norse Farm Site. Western Settlement. Greenland (Kaiaallit Nunaata), University of Alberta, Department of Anthropology Edmonton. Alberta Fa11 1997, sid 40
Please note that you will find the pollen for Cyperaceae in high figures when reading the pollenanalysis….. that one shouldn’t have been able to be growing there at all if the alarmists fictions for the past temperature figures been correct.
What’s forgotten among many other things is that the Norse Greenlanders did export (!) butter and hard cheese over to Norway and Denmark in late 14th century….
I could ad much more, but I rest my case for now.
EFS_Junior says:
June 26, 2010 at 10:44 pm
You sure that wouldn’t be trillions of years?
I think the answer is no. But I think trillions is Al Gore’s new degree estimate for the temperature at the core of the earth.
norah4you,
You are joking, right?
norah4you says:
June 26, 2010 at 11:42 pm
Nora, thank you for telling us about Svante and the Vikings. But most of the regulars here know all that already. Especially Steven Goddard.
Latest Barrow Ice Breakup On Record?
Ya, but it’s just weather.
No I am not joking.
So many here have tried to make belive that they know what Svante A wrote. But since they aren’t skilled in Swedish nor in German they have missunderstood a lot.
Too much.
The worst part is that persons on both sides in the debate never understood that one has to have a full background knowledge, doesn’t help with being a scholar in one subject and skilled in computer usage. When I wrote my C-essay in History, ~The waterways towards lake Roxen. (For BA-level. I also written an academic work D-level) I had to check waterlevels for oceans from Stone Age up to 1000 AD in order to get a correct landrise, when and how quick etc, for Ferro Scandia due to the fact that I in the ‘last’ stage had to relate waterlevels within todays Baltic Ocean from the days the Ice coat withdraw northward. One need at least 40 different variables and a good computer program. Fortunatly for me I am a systemprogrammer from beginning.
So joking. By no means but several arguing here present assumptions as if they were facts and mix around with correct readings over and over again. And btw. one of you on the alarmist side was kind enough to send me your improper corrections of correct readings and also managed, I guess by mistake……
Never mind the ice conditions at Barrow. The Arctic sea ice anomaly has reached the lowest level since 2007.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.arctic.png
What’s up with that?
norah4you,
It’s just your writing is not easy to understand. It seems like you could be joking. But maybe you don’t write in English well.
Roald
The ice in the Barents sea melted earlier than normal this year. It doesn’t figure into the summer minimum.
Roald says:
June 27, 2010 at 5:05 am
Never mind the ice conditions at Barrow. The Arctic sea ice anomaly has reached the lowest level since 2007.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.arctic.png
What’s up with that?
_________________________________________________________________
What I find weird is The Cryosphere Today Daily Sea Ice Comparisons. The deep purple color is supposed to indicate 80-100% solid ice. 2010 seems to be mostly solid ice compared to other years. I took a quick look at five year intervals:
Here is 2010 vs 2006 (2005 is not available)
2010 vs 2000
2010 vs 1995
2010 vs 1995
2010 vs 1990
2010 vs 1985
2010 vs 1980
In all cases 2010 is show to be pretty much a solid block of ice compared to a bunch of ice bergs floating in the sea around the edges for the other years. I do not know if this is “true data” or an artifact. This article from a year ago seems to indicate the data is not exactly the most accurate available: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aIe9swvOqwIY
“Steve, don’t choose only a few month’s data to say something about years of ice cycles. Make your prediction and relax. It will say absolutely nothing about the way of the world one way or the other. Also, don’t criticize the GISS silly extrapolations of temp across the Arctic and then resort to it yourself.”
well put. When the alarmists run for the ice to prove their point it is NOT wise to follow them onto that slippery surface.
I find Arctic ice to be a very interesting scientific study. Sorry if that offends anyone.
Amino Acids in Meteorites better know that while I do have spelling problems when writing, as well as problems with grammar also when writing, I never had any problems in England – always been taken for a Londoner. Never had problems reading but as I try to explain – I am a bit dyslectic thus I can make spellings that seems funny because I don’t see that I spelt wrongly if the pronounce is alike. And grammar – well the only grammar I don’t make many mistakes in is German grammar….
Back in 1976 I organized symposium as well as courses from an Humanecological perspective discussing among other things new Ice Age or global warming. Had good scholars in the panels.
Gail Combs wrote,
“In all cases 2010 is show to be pretty much a solid block of ice compared to a bunch of ice bergs floating in the sea around the edges for the other years. I do not know if this is “true data” or an artifact.”
The”Compare Daily Sea Ice” maps on Cryosphere today appear to be very poor resolution, basically worthless. Check out the difference between their comparison map, on right in this image:
http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=06&fd=26&fy=2000&sm=06&sd=26&sy=2010
And this somewhat higher-rez version also from Cryosphere today, showing the same day with far more mixed ice:
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NEWIMAGES/arctic.seaice.color.000.png
Or for a more direct visual impression, check out MODIS Arctic mosaic:
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/subsets/?mosaic=Arctic
To see how fractured a lot of that solid ice really is, you can zoom the mosaic MODIS to 1 pixel=250m resolution and view such areas as the Beaufort Sea, the archipelago, and areas north of Fram and Nares Straits.
stevengoddard
The Barents sea ice area has been below average most of the time since last fall, except for the growth in late winter/early spring. However, the Arctic basin ice is already running low, too, at -0.5 mill sq.km:
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.1.html
Roald
OMG. The world is coming to an end because some ice shifted in the Arctic Basin over the last few days.
I never said that the end was nigh.
While we’re at it, it’s a shame that England’s been eliminated from the World Cup. We was robbed!