By charles the moderator
From the “No matter what happens we can attribute it to Anthropogenic Climate Change” Department.
In a story in physorg.com James Overland of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, makes a few claims which will give some of our readers pause.
While it may seem counter-intuitive, warmer Arctic climes caused by climate change influence air pressure at the North Pole, shifting wind patterns in such a way as to boost cooling over adjacent swathes of the planet.
“Cold and snowy winters will be the rule rather than the exception,” said James Overland of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Continued rapid loss of ice will be an important driver of major change in the world’s climate system in the coming years, he said at an Olso meeting of scientists reviewing research from the two-year International Polar Year 2007-2008.
The exceptionally chilly winter of 2009-2010 in temperate zones of the northern hemisphere were connected to unique physical processes in the Arctic, he said.
“The emerging impact of greenhouse gases in an important factor in the changing Arctic,” he explained in a statement.
“What was not fully recognized until now is that a combination of an unusual warm period due to natural variability, loss of sea ice reflectivity, ocean heat storage, and changing wind patterns all working together to disrupt the memory and stability of the Arctic climate system,” he said.
The region is warming more than twice as fast as the rest of the planet, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification.
Resulting ice loss is significantly greater than earlier climate models predicted.
The polar ice cap shrank to its smallest surface since records have been kept in 2007, and early data suggests it could become even smaller this summer.
Source here. Bolding mine.
Now just over a year ago, NOAA put this out, again quoting Overland.
“The Arctic is changing faster than anticipated,” said James Overland, an oceanographer at NOAA’s Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory and co-author of the study, which will appear April 3 in Geophysical Research Letters. “It’s a combination of natural variability, along with warmer air and sea conditions caused by increased greenhouse gases.”
Overland and his co-author, Muyin Wang, a University of Washington research scientist with the Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean in Seattle, analyzed projections from six computer models, including three with sophisticated sea ice physics capabilities. That data was then combined with observations of summer sea ice loss in 2007 and 2008.
The area covered by summer sea ice is expected to decline from its current 4.6 million square kilometers (about 1.8 million square miles) to about 1 million square kilometers (about 390,000 square miles) – a loss approximately two-fifths the size of the continental U.S. Much of the sea ice would remain in the area north of Canada and Greenland and decrease between Alaska and Russia in the Pacific Arctic.
“The Arctic is often called the ‘Earth’s refrigerator’ because the sea ice helps cool the planet by reflecting the sun’s radiation back into space,” said Wang. “With less ice, the sun’s warmth is instead absorbed by the open water, contributing to warmer temperatures in the water and the air.”
Bolding mine. Source again here. So… while this is not a direct contradiction, it is sort of a morphing of ideas. To paraphrase the what was not fully recognized.
We used to think that a warming Arctic with melting ice would be part of a warming trend, but instead, we got a lot of snow and cold weather, so the warming Arctic kinda messed with all those, you know, patterns and stuff like that we expected like. So that snow and rain and cold and other stuff we didn’t predict or expect… you know what I’m sayin’? It was caused by, you know, the crazy mixed up stuff caused by all that melting and warming and stuff, yeah…that’s it.
or to phrase it another way:
AGW moves in mysterious ways.
But the money shot is here from the physorg.com article.
It is unlikely that the Arctic can return to its previous condition, Overland said. The changes are irreversible.
It is likely someone will remind Dr. Overland of that statement in a few years.
h/t “K”
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Slaone says: June 13, 2010 at 8:52 pm
“Clearly by what I have read in the above article he’s reading tea leaves in a cup” (of coffee) ” and doesn’t have a clue what’s going on.”
Nasif Nahle says:
June 13, 2010 at 6:57 pm
Nasif
Good to see you here again. You are of course absolutely correct. Science does eventually change itself. Witness the fights over quantum physics/classicalo physics etc. The problem is that it takes many years for science to get its act together and by then the climate has changed on them yete again. They are always one cycle behind the curve.
What Overland is a classic image of is ALL members of the current “official” climate science community. In my opinion, they lack the fundamental science knowledge and skills to be able to analyse, deduce and conclude from the data they have to hand. Whether this lack of ability is deliberately hidden or they truely do lack it I’m not sure but when I look at the education of these people it reminds a lot of the degrees that can be purchased from US unis. Not worth the paper they are printed on.
A news item from page 14 of Issue 929 of the Intermountain Farm & Ranch reports the level of destruction caused by this past cold winter in Mongolia, where a third of the population of 2.7 million people are herders. The winter of snow, cold and gales so severe Mongolians have a special term for it – “dzud”, killed 8.2 million animals, nearly a fifth of all livestock in a country where wealth is measured in yak, cows, goats, and horses. While the Mongolian government attributed it to “climate change”, you’d be hard pressed to convince the struggling herders that such a devestating winter was anything but colder. And it is the cold, rather than warmth, that kills.
Baa Humbug says warm water freezes quicker than cold.
True. Its the evaporation taking the heat away faster. But its the rate of cooling that is quicker. It’s the same principle that is used to turn gases to liquid, eg, O², N etc. They pump the surface of the gas/liquid to cool it.
Artic amplification
http://www.acia.uaf.edu/PDFs/ACIA_Science_Chapters_Final/ACIA_Ch02_Final.pdf
K has it right – look at 1984’s Big Brother. The govt run media, the “scientific” and “political science” elite KNOW how we are all supposed to think. I’m an engineer; if our predictions don’t work, the failures are obvious and the next set of products improve (unless mgt stands in the way). But, if scientists get it wrong, the predictions just morph and old predictions disappear down the memory hole.
stephen richards
June 14, 2010 at 4:40 am
“The phase of the Arctic Oscillation was at its most negative in the
1960s, exhibited a general trend toward a more positive
phase from about 1970 to the early 1990s, and has
remained mostly positive since.”
Thanks for your link which includes the above comment.
I think one needs to update their findings by accepting that the phase has now become negative.
I think there is support there for my assertion that the phase of the AO is in some way associated with the level of solar activity.
And then there is this:
“Bond et al. (2001) suggested variations in solar insolation.
Changes in the thermohaline circulation or modes
of atmospheric variability, such as the AO, may also have
been primary forcing mechanisms of century- or
millennial-scale changes in the Holocene climate of the
North Atlantic. It is possible that solar forcing may
excite modes of atmospheric variability that, in turn,
may amplify climate changes.The Arctic, through its
linkage with the Nordic Seas, may be a key region
where solar-induced atmospheric changes are amplified
and transmitted globally through their effect on the
thermohaline circulation.The resulting reduction in
northward heat transport may have further altered
latitudinal temperature and moisture gradients.”
My New Climate Model provides a logical and observationally sound narrative linking all those factors in a coherent manner.
Leif, what say you ?
Wren says:
June 13, 2010 at 9:07 pm
Overland probably also thinks hot water can freeze faster than warm water.
Having lived in the north, I can vouch for the fact that the hot water pipe always freezes first. It has something to do with driving out absorbed gases.
“What was not fully recognized until now is that a combination of an unusual warm period due to natural variability, loss of sea ice reflectivity, ocean heat storage, and changing wind patterns all working together to disrupt the memory and stability of the Arctic climate system,” he said.”
Overland’s fragmented sentence structure above seems to show a general confusion in his thought process. His subject, “unusual warm period due to…etc.” “all working together to disrupt… etc.” is left flapping in the wind. Could this be due to extreme cognitive dissonance, perhaps?
My mates over at the Seers and Prognosticators Society asked me to complain on their behalf.
They feel they are being driven into poor esteem by the AGW crew as they , SEAPS, take care to ensure their visions for the future are suitably vague and couched in terms that can easily mean many things simultaneously. This amateur is just too damned obvious, they say.
Well, catastrophic AGW proves itself to be a religious cult. It strongly resembles Millerism. William Miller predicted the end of the world in 1843. When it didn’t happen, he moved the date to 1844. Thousands had sold their possessions in preparation for the end, it was called “The Great Disappointment”.
For decades we were told to expect snow-free winters. Municipalities even cutback on snow clearing budgets in preparation. We’ve gotten quite the opposite for a few winters… and now the goalpost moves. Again. Catastrophic AGW is another Great Disappointment.
Orwellian philosophy at work
When the polar high pressure cells drift equatorward during a period of negative polar oscillations that allows more inflow of warm air into the polar regions at the same time as there is a greater flow of cold air to the mid latitudes….That seems to happen more often and/or with greater intensity when the solar surface is inactive as now
This is why is interesting to ponder about causes:
http://www.holoscience.com/news.php?article=9eq6g3aj
and
http://www.xearththeory.com/introdis_earth_electromagnetic_coil_transformers_step_up_down.html
Richard Garnache says:
June 14, 2010 at 6:14 am
“the hot water pipe always freezes first”
What while they are full of Hot Water?
The whole concept of the ‘memory of the climate system’ is pretty suspicious. Essentially, ‘memory’ is a modelling term, and its physical explanations are constantly changing.
finally, there are actually people who won’t be fooled by CO2 climate change. the only way to get their attention is to predict a better model of climate than they can. that giant green moneyball is about to freeze. you can tell them but they won’t listen.
http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1962294,00.html
and then there was an eruption that cuaght their attention
http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1962294,00.html
Robert of Ottawa says:
June 13, 2010 at 7:04 pm
Jimbo asks:
“Why do these people continue with their failed predictions?
Because they are paid to do so. The government employed scientist produces the scientific results that are required by the government bureaucracy.
The “scientists” in the employ of the government, AKA bureaucrats with degrees, are simply doing what ever is necessary for them to continue receiving a pay slip.”
What other professions are we going to slander in Moncktonian fashion?
Perhaps Arctic scientists who see the obvious disintegration of the ice cap. They must be looking forward to losing their jobs when the Arctic Ocean becomes open water.
Or why should we even bother believing that men landed on the Moon? NASA, obviously a government bureaucracy, must have faked it by your logic, in order to get government funds.
—————————————————————————————
• • wayne says:
June 13, 2010 at 9:18 pm
“The region is warming more than twice as fast as the rest of the planet, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification.
Ok, the amp’s unplugged. Why didn’t someone at NOAA tell it was still on?”
Because the amp has not been unplugged. It is 4-9 degrees Fahrenheit warmer in the Arctic region than normal.
From NSIDC which uses data from thermal imaging satellites:
http://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaicenews/20100608_Figure4.png
As well as this statement to the immediate right of the image:
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
Persistent warmth in the Arctic
“Arctic air temperatures averaged for May were above normal, continuing the temperature trend that has persisted since last winter. Temperatures were 2 to 5 degrees Celsius (4 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit) above average across much of the Arctic Ocean.”
—————————————————————————————
latitude says:
June 13, 2010 at 6:46 pm
“Well, look at it this way.”
At least they/he admitted we had a cold winter. Al Gore’s Holy Hologram says: “
June 13, 2010 at 2:26 pm
“Save this stuff on your hard drives for future reference and comparison, as usual.”
Please do!
—————————————————————————————
latitude says:
June 13, 2010 at 2:01 pm
“Rapid fluctuations in sea ice is weather….
….a .5 degree increase in long term temperature trends, is climate.
Can sea ice tell the difference between -40 and -39.5?”
1.
Ahhhhhh (while I scratch my head), let’s see. Could it have something to do with the season?
In the SUMMER it goes above 32 F. The average Arctic temperature having been 3-4 F above normal and this year 4-9 F (except for the Canadian Arctic Islands). That causes direct melt.
2.
You could also see other effects by looking at one of those low flying, low speed airplane video shots which show a lot of ponding on the top of the ice. Ponding is the presence of pools of water that have melted on top of the ice.
Since water absorbs 80% of sunlight whereas ice reflects 80-90% of sunlight (depending on conditions) it increases in temperature even more and it starts melting the ice beneath it all the way down to the sea. This begins the process of disintegration that leads to “rotten ice” which is much more vulnerable to melting than solid ice of the same thickness.
What a pity, those ponds are a very pretty shade of blue.
3.
Then there is the general absorption of sunlight by water during the summer. As soon as the shrinking ice cap started exposing more and and more ocean the water got warmer and proceeded to nibble away at the edges of the ice cap and slip in under the ice cap.
Thus the Arctic ice cap is being attacked from three sides. Warmer air above and warmer waters to the sides as well as underneath.
These are just some
—————————————————————————————
• • Bill Illis says:
June 13, 2010 at 4:03 pm
“Temps in the Arctic were roughly as high in the 1940s.”
I don’t know what in our weather system would have caused that but let’s assume for the sake of argument that this is correct. How long was it at those temperatures? The effects after all are cumulative. It would have needed to have lasted at least 30 years to have had the same effects as our current situation.
Here’s a different kind of reversal in New Scientist today. Apparently agriculture is now good for our climate.
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn19042-intensive-farming-massively-slowed-global-warming.html?DCMP=OTC-rss&nsref=online-news
“Fertilisers, pesticides and hybrid high-yielding seeds saved the planet from an extra dose of global warming.”
BBC Springwatch Weatherview report just said last winter was 2C below UK long term average and spring was latest for over a decade.
there is no point in discussing the science behind this article. there is none.
it is simply propaganda, meant to generate scary headlines and manipulate people.
villabolo says:
June 14, 2010 at 4:20 pm
_________________________________
4-9 ºF warmer huh? I’ll trust Denmark, they (EU) live up there and have a hell-of-a long term stable trustable system, NOAA (NSIDC) first needs to fix the U.S. temperature records and remove the adjustments before they can tackle the arctic, beside, it’s been at or below average in the arctic mostly since mid-May. See:
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
//amp off
This story now reported in the German Sueddeutsche Zeitung.
http://pgosselin.wordpress.com/2010/06/15/noaas-overland-warns-of-cold-snowy-winters/