Then and now, Europe, US to see snowy, cold winters: expert

By charles the moderator

From the “No matter what happens we can attribute it to Anthropogenic Climate Change” Department.

Big Ben in Snow

In a story in physorg.com James Overland of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, makes a few claims which will give some of our readers pause.

While it may seem counter-intuitive, warmer Arctic climes caused by influence air pressure at the North Pole, shifting wind patterns in such a way as to boost cooling over adjacent swathes of the planet.

“Cold and snowy winters will be the rule rather than the exception,” said James Overland of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Continued rapid loss of ice will be an important driver of major change in the world’s climate system in the coming years, he said at an Olso meeting of scientists reviewing research from the two-year International Polar Year 2007-2008.

The exceptionally chilly winter of 2009-2010 in temperate zones of the were connected to unique physical processes in the Arctic, he said.

“The emerging impact of greenhouse gases in an important factor in the changing Arctic,” he explained in a statement.

What was not fully recognized until now is that a combination of an unusual warm period due to natural variability, loss of sea ice reflectivity, ocean heat storage, and changing wind patterns all working together to disrupt the memory and stability of the Arctic climate system,” he said.

The region is warming more than twice as fast as the rest of the planet, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification.

Resulting ice loss is significantly greater than earlier predicted.

The shrank to its smallest surface since records have been kept in 2007, and early data suggests it could become even smaller this summer.

Source here. Bolding mine.

Now just over a year ago, NOAA put this out, again quoting Overland.

“The Arctic is changing faster than anticipated,” said James Overland, an oceanographer at NOAA’s Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory and co-author of the study, which will appear April 3 in Geophysical Research Letters. “It’s a combination of natural variability, along with warmer air and sea conditions caused by increased greenhouse gases.”

Overland and his co-author, Muyin Wang, a University of Washington research scientist with the Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean in Seattle, analyzed projections from six computer models, including three with sophisticated sea ice physics capabilities. That data was then combined with observations of summer sea ice loss in 2007 and 2008.

Arctic sea ice visualization.

Data visualization: Arctic sea ice.

Visualization (Credit: NOAA)

The area covered by summer sea ice is expected to decline from its current 4.6 million square kilometers (about 1.8 million square miles) to about 1 million square kilometers (about 390,000 square miles) – a loss approximately two-fifths the size of the continental U.S. Much of the sea ice would remain in the area north of Canada and Greenland and decrease between Alaska and Russia in the Pacific Arctic.

The Arctic is often called the ‘Earth’s refrigerator’ because the sea ice helps cool the planet by reflecting the sun’s radiation back into space,” said Wang. “With less ice, the sun’s warmth is instead absorbed by the open water, contributing to warmer temperatures in the water and the air.

Bolding mine.  Source again here. So… while this is not a direct contradiction, it is sort of a morphing of ideas.  To paraphrase the what was not fully recognized.

We used to think that a warming Arctic with melting ice would be part of a warming trend, but instead, we got a lot of snow and cold weather, so the warming Arctic kinda messed with all those, you know, patterns and stuff like that we expected like. So that snow and rain and cold and other stuff we didn’t predict or expect… you know what I’m sayin’?  It was caused by, you know, the crazy mixed up stuff caused by all that melting and warming and stuff, yeah…that’s it.

or to phrase it another way:

AGW moves in mysterious ways.

But the money shot is here from the physorg.com article.

It is unlikely that the can return to its previous condition, Overland said.  The changes are irreversible.

It is likely someone will remind Dr. Overland of that statement in a few years.

h/t “K”

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158 thoughts on “Then and now, Europe, US to see snowy, cold winters: expert

  1. They really do think we are stupid. I am still waiting for all the supposed “principled” scientists to start jumping off the global warming dog and pony show.
    I don’t trust science any more.

  2. Anthony,
    The technical difficulty,with the Text running into the border is very taxing on aged eye’s.
    [Reply: Try resizing the screen. ~dbs]

  3. I would dearly like to see NOAA’s visualisation of the Arctic ice extent extended from 2008 toinclude all of the available data up to May 2010. Has anyone ever told them about the Beaufort Gyre?

  4. Yup. One year they are calling for the end of cold and snowy winters because of AGW and now they are calling for colder and snowier winters as a result of AGW. So in other words, if you stick your head out of the window, no matter what weather you experience, it is the result of AGW.
    I am sorry but I find the entire exercise quite moronic.

  5. That reminds me a twist on a famous baseball saying by Ken Levine, who was a writer for the TV show Cheers and a one time TV commentator for the Seattle Mariners. He used to say “A leadoff walk will ALWAYS come around to score. Unless it doesn’t”.

  6. Dr. Overland’s cyclically-varying prognoses are pure conjecture. He tailors fact to fancy with climate-model shears, producing alarmist claims in fashion as circumstances warrant. Science?– no, merely an ongoing propaganda exercise dispensed under color of objective, rational analysis. Since “climate studies” are not an empirical discipline –no experiments, merely correspondences in hindsight– falsifying such bumpf devolves to fact-free “mere opinion.” The Green Gang likes it that way.

  7. “It is unlikely that the Arctic can return to its previous condition,…”
    I assume he means equilibrium.

  8. Let’s see. The melting ice in the Arctic and the “new” arctic winds, driven by global warming, cause extreme wintry conditions all over the northern hemisphere. And the loss of arctic ice in the warm months means greater global warming as the water becomes warmer. I wonder why he failed to mention that the extreme wintry conditions all over the northern hemisphere contribute to a marked cooling of the northern hemisphere? (The snow reflects sunlight.) This global warming science is really far too sophisticated for mere mortals.

  9. Rapid fluctuations in sea ice is weather….
    ….a .5 degree increase in long term temperature trends, is climate.
    Can sea ice tell the difference between -40 and -39.5?

  10. These frauds are climate bookies. They “win” whether global temperature is warmer or colder than normal (whatever “normal” is) since both are caused by AGW, and of course, colder temperatures are merely “weather” but warmer temperatures are always “climate.” These climate backbenchers nauseate me.

  11. More snow = warmer!
    Less snow = warmer!
    The exact same amount of snow = warmer!
    Who, exactly, do they think they are continuing to fool with this crap?

  12. Could some one pass me some global warming? It has been in the 40s for 3 days here in Utah.

  13. More gems from Overland:
    http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/star/documents/2007IceSymp/Summary_Report_2007.pdf
    “… we do not have to have perfect reproduction of observations to
    accept that models can provide reasonable representations of the climate.”
    “Ensemble of models run with CO2 very closely simulate 20th century
    global temperature – impossible to do so without CO2 in the models;
    convincing evidence for the human causes for warming.”
    That is, the IPCC’s models have been hopeless at temperature forecasts and this would have been impossible without basing the models on CO2.

  14. The walnut shells are moving at blinding speed. The little pea is staying in the same spot. Clearly the game shill sees the gendarmes out of the corner of his eye.
    It’s nearly time to fold up the table and move along.

  15. In other words, when their theories fail to produce accurate predictions, they change the predictions, but not the theories, taking advantage of observed conditions, and rewriting the script to make it look like they were ahead of the curve all along. These guys are shameless.
    Given NOAA’s preternatural record of erroneous predictions, falsified temperature readings, and now its horrific screw-ups in the Gulf oil disater, I’m surprised anybody would want to admit working for it.

  16. What is really troubling here is the Met Office in the UK used global circulation models to predict a warmer than normal winter for 2009-2010. The models clearly missed the positive pressure arctic oscillation even though a few less (over) educated meteorologists said in the fall that conditions were ripe for a positive arctic oscillation. The positive AO leads to moderating temperatures at the poles and cold temperatures at the mid-latitudes. The meteorologists nailed this one, while the GCM’s missed it. Is it time the egg head climate modelers climbed down from their ivory tower started talking to the guys predicting the weather. They might learn a thing or two.

  17. Save this stuff on your hard drives for future reference and comparison, as usual.

  18. I wonder what makes the current arctic warming more irreversible than the similar warming 70 years ago?

  19. “What was not fully recognized until now is that a combination of an unusual warm period due to natural variability, loss of sea ice reflectivity, ocean heat storage, and changing wind patterns all working together to disrupt the memory and stability of the Arctic climate system,” he said.
    How insultingly naieve is this statement?
    If the Arctic gets warmer and causes colder N. Temperate Zone temps, it’s a zero-sum game.
    A zero-sum game with the mass of us poor slobs getting the short end of the climactic stick.
    100’s of millions of people on this planet get the end result: warming Peter Popsickle Land to freeze the crud out of Paul Pedestrian Land.

  20. Minor typo: “In a story in physicorg.com” should refer to “physorg.com”. The link is right, so it’s a very minor typo.
    “early data suggests it could become even smaller this summer.” Does that constitute a prediction? If so (and even if not), can we create a new WordPress category, “prediction” and tag posts that include predictions thusly? Now that I’m collecting links to categories that would make it easier to find such claims.
    Reply: No excuses. I wasn’t even drunk. Fixed. ~ctm

  21. Translation: Just like the Arctic, as I get older my memory plays tricks on me too and affects my stability.

  22. AGW “proponents” remind me of when little kids play cards and they make up the rules as they go so that they always win. No one plays with those kids.
    At some point, they will have to be dismissed and mocked because if reason hasn’t reached them by now, it never will.

  23. “…to disrupt the memory…of the Arctic climate system”
    Gaia is getting Alzheimer disease from breathing all that CO2.
    Idiots.

  24. It’s called weather and you can’t use it to disprove AGW.
    You can of course use AGW to predict that the weather will be different.
    Since the weather is constantly changing that means AGW must be true 🙂
    This must qualify as a variation of reductio ad absurdem.

  25. “The Arctic is often called the ‘Earth’s refrigerator’ because the sea ice helps cool the planet by reflecting the sun’s radiation back into space,” said Wang. “With less ice, the sun’s warmth is instead absorbed by the open water, contributing to warmer temperatures in the water and the air.”

    So what happened after September 2007? Did we enter a death spiral ie less and less September sea ice? From what I have learned quite the opposite – 2008 greater than 2007 and 2009 greater than 2008. Why????

    10 years ago in the UK Independent:
    Dr David Viner – Climate Research Unit :o)
    “within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event“.”

    5 years ago in the UK Independent:
    Mark Serreze – Snow and Ice Data Centre
    sea ice will not recover

    Why do these people continue with their failed predictions?

  26. Continued rapid loss of ice
    But that isn’t happening since 2007. Ice has increased year by year, in 2008, and 2009, since then. And it looks like an increase this year too. We will see in 3 months if the increase continues.

  27. The region is warming more than twice as fast as the rest of the planet, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification.
    It’s actually from the Arctic Oscillation (AO), a normal occurrence in climate.

  28. It is unlikely that the Arctic can return to its previous condition, Overland said. The changes are irreversible.
    I know, it’s the ‘death spiral’.
    But Arctic ice is increasing. 2008 and 2009 saw an increase in Arctic ice. So nothing to see here. 🙂

  29. “Olso”?
    I guess he meant Oslo, the capital city of Norway, Scandinavia, Europe, the World.

  30. In other words, the bones in the bowl didn’t line up right (ie: this is not science) or to put it bluntly they haven’t got a clue about the scope of what they understand or the precision in which they are able surmise the future.
    What I remember from engineering is when dealing with a turbulent fluid …

  31. Not even summers are getting warmer here in Norway anymore.
    In northern norway it never even reached 30-40s temps: http://eklima.met.no/metno/trend/TAMA_G5_22_1000_NO.jpg
    And Norway is supposed to be one of the places that is supposed to experience most global warming..
    Here in middle of Norway we havent had more than one single “summer” day with temps of 20c or higher and that one was in may. A week ago we even set the lowest recorded june temp”2c” in 35 years and such records have been set every month so far this year.

  32. Amazing what these people will do and say in order to get both our money and control of our lives. Almost everything is being attributed to AGW.

  33. This is funny:
    “What was not fully recognized until now, blah blah blah”
    So prior to now, telling everyone you knew what you were talking about was total BS.

  34. Mr. Overland: You are an extreme embarrassment to all of the competent meteorologists and scientists employed in this agency.
    Please quit your obsfucations, distortions and contradictions that so obviously are trying to protect the fraudulent CO2 warming hypothesis and yearly multi billion dollar federal funding racket that so desperately needs the plug to be pulled on it so as to bankrupt the Chicago Climate Exchange, Goldman Sack’s and Al Gore.

  35. “… all working together to disrupt the memory and stability of the Arctic climate system,”
    The Arctic has a memory?

  36. We have not become “sane” in terms of AGW. Remember Orwell:
    ‘You are a slow learner, Winston,’ said O’Brien gently.
    ‘How can I help it?’ he blubbered. ‘How can I help seeing what is in front of my eyes? Two and two are four.’
    ‘Sometimes, Winston. Sometimes they are five. Sometimes they are three. Sometimes they are all of them at once. You must try harder. It is not easy to become sane.’

  37. “Reply: No excuses. I wasn’t even drunk. Fixed. ~ctm”
    That reminds me of the two beers in my fridge that i had completely forgotten. Thanks, Charles! Gotta check whether the arctic conditions there still prevail…

  38. I think the people that write this AGW rot have reached the tippling point and then proceeded beyond it.
    Generational memory is amazing. You see it in the stock market with a generational memory of about 10 years. During that period, you have had close to 100% turnover in the staff of most investment firms. People forget the sovereign debt crisis of Russia in 1998 and thus miss the signs for the current one in the EU. Loans to objects with poor credit ratings was the sub-prime disaster in the 1980s and guess what we have now again. The problem here is the AMO is so long that few people seem to remember it. Add to that a little “adjustment” to the data record and we are now warmer than ever. To be sure, land use and energy use in and about urban areas has increased the temperature in those regions. But for the balance, sorry guys, there has not been much change since the 1930s. I do not have to consult my copy of Nostradamus to prophecy that there will be a batch of “coming ice age Malthusian disaster” articles in the popular press around 2035.

  39. When the polar high pressure cells drift equatorward during a period of negative polar oscillations that allows more inflow of warm air into the polar regions at the same time as there is a greater flow of cold air to the mid latitudes.
    That seems to happen more often and/or with greater intensity when the solar surface is inactive as now.
    The net effect is to increase the rate of energy loss to space from the poles whilst at the same time warm tropical air is restrained from moving poleward by the more equatorward air circulation patterns. Thus a cooling of the mid latitudes despite general global warmth.
    The warmer the tropics become the more they try to push the air circulation systems back poleward again.
    So there is a constant battle as regards air circulation system latitudinal positioning and regional climates will change depending on that region’s position in relation to the air circulation positions at any given time.
    The global trend in temperature is quite seperate and as often as not will go in the opposite direction to the trend in individual regions.
    One of the greatest errors by climate science is to wrongly conflate regional changes with background global trends
    I keep seeing bits from my earlier propositions coming up in ‘new’ research such as this but no one else is anywhere near incorporating those bits into a coherent climate overview.

  40. From the few times I’ve been on a boat it seems to me that open water does a pretty good job at reflecting sunlight too. As someone else mentioned earlier, the sun spends most of it’s time hitting the arctic region on an angle, not dead on as you would imagine in the tropical latitudes. I would think that whether ice or open water it would reflect quite a bit of the sunlight.
    Then again just this afternoon while sitting out on the deck I said to the wife, “Hun, I think the temp just increased half a degree. We better go back into the air conditioning.”

  41. “The region is warming more than twice as fast as the rest of the planet, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification.”
    How the heck would they know??? Aren’t they getting their Arctic temperature information from GISS?

  42. Espen says:
    June 13, 2010 at 2:31 pm
    I wonder what makes the current arctic warming more irreversible than the similar warming 70 years ago?

    It makes you wonder how THIS became reversible. It makes you wonder whether the President of the Royal Society had a little too much Scotch before talking such gibberish in 1817:

    “It will without doubt have come to your Lordship’s knowledge that a considerable change of climate, inexplicable at present to us, must have taken place in the Circumpolar Regions, by which the severity of the cold that has for centuries past enclosed the seas in the high northern latitudes in an impenetrable barrier of ice has been during the last two years, greatly abated.”

    Enjoy the Holocene and the thicker than expected Arctic ice.

  43. “What was not fully recognized until now is that a combination of an unusual warm period due to natural variability, loss of sea ice reflectivity, ocean heat storage, and changing wind patterns all working together to disrupt the memory and stability of the Arctic climate system,” he said.
    =========================
    Memory and stability?
    Disappointment awaits anyone looking for memory or stability, on this planet.
    BTW, what does “memory” mean?

  44. Whatever happens next, I predicted it. And even if I didn’t, I reserve the right to post-predict the past as if I did. The models do not lie; they have 20-20 hindsight and so does my robust crystal ball.

  45. Thomas says:
    June 13, 2010 at 3:12 pm
    “The Arctic has a memory?”
    One could look at ice as a sort of memory. Wonder how many Gigabytes it is, really?

  46. The Earth has warmed a bit. It will cool a bit soon. It does that.
    But this is what is getting mighty interesting.
    It is possible that the natural driver of our climate, this highly variable and out of balance Earth, with its ever changing and leaky atmosphere and oceans, keeping it warm here, letting it cool there, will be the downfall of our current set of politicians, and if it is, they will never see the light of the rotunda again, nor anyone who dares to claim the same political party.
    Given that, it seems to me that our current crop of politicians are placing a mighty big bet on a modeled theory that an increase in a tiny fraction of CO2 in the atmosphere, of which a tinier piece has been placed there by us, is the driver of our recent rather whimpy warming, instead of Earth.
    I do know this. I lost a bet because of my vote, thinking that smarter heads would prevail. I won’t make that mistake again.

  47. Oh come on…..it wasn’t that long ago they were saying kids would grow up not knowing snow. Now snow Is going to be the norm? Have these people no shame? What will they say when there’s below average snowfall this winter? They can’t have it both ways. Either they understand climate change and they can make accurate predictions or they don’t. And if they don’t know what they are talking about then they should stop spouting nonsense until they figure it out.

  48. Like I’ve said before, if it gets any warmer, we’ll all freeze to death.
    For some reason, when I read about some of those hysteria-mongers, I get a glimpse of Jim Carrey and Jeff Daniels in “Dumb and Dumber”.
    My question is, when the inevitable cycle of climate change takes us into an indisputable cooling period, how will they blame that on our CO2? I’m convinced they will.

  49. This ain’t nothing but a confidence trick. They predict EVERYTHING and atribute any weather changes to climate change in order that the ‘theory’ can never be falsified. Think about it. 30 years of brutal NH winter snows will not be able to falsify it!!!! Thirty years of ‘normal’ conditions cannot falsify it. Thirty years of relative lack of snow will merely confirm it!!!
    Now they wonder why people are becoming increasingly sceptical. In years to come AGW is going to enter the museum of scientific hoaxes ahead of Piltdown man.
    You can’t fool all of the people all of the time.

  50. Temps in the Arctic were roughly as high in the 1940s.
    And there is an phenomenon call Polar Amplification where it seems that the Arctic and the Antarctic temperatures swing by twice as much as the global temperatures. That also means they swing down twice as much as in the 1970s when Arctic temperatures were about 2.0C lower than the 1940s. We also see this pattern in the paleoclimate records as well with twice as much temp change at the poles in the ice ages for example or the longer-term proxy records.
    GISTemp for global, mid-latitude, tropics and Arctic temperatures.
    http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Temperature/T_moreFigs/zonalT.gif
    And some of the change is the result of natural cycles. Compare the GISTemp monthly data for 64N to 90N versus the Raw undetrended Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) figures [I used the Raw undetrended AMO data just to show the correlation a little better and then I smoothed GISTemp over 5 months because it is so variable].
    http://img33.imageshack.us/img33/2866/amorawarctictemps.png

  51. joel says: “How much sunlight actually hits the ground in the high latitudes, anyway?”
    By “ground,” I assume you mean the Earth’s surface. Sunlight does illuminate the Arctic 24 hours a day in the summertime. On a square foot basis, the incident radiation is small compared to the equator because of the low angle of incidence. Sunlight has to pass through an atmosphere about 2.4 times as thick as at the equator, too, so it’s even less intense. There may be more scattering, too, at that zenith angle.

  52. But wern’t they telling us, up to some years ago, that our children would not know what snow is? Now they’re telling us that we will be getting more snow and more cold. They don’t knoe a single thing about what’s happening to our climate. The key sentence in James Overland’s report is the following: “What was not fully recognized until now ………” Yeah, what was not recognised until now is that your twenty year old AGW theory was a fairy tale and now its dead. Mouth to mouth resuscitation procedure will not get it back to breath, nor more BS. Admit it and go home, love your family, and tell them that the planet and humanity have a future together. And be happy.

  53. “kwik says:
    Thomas says:
    June 13, 2010 at 3:12 pm
    “The Arctic has a memory?”
    One could look at ice as a sort of memory. Wonder how many Gigabytes it is, really?”
    Technically, a state is a memory. Thus, every material system is a memory. The Wolters Pilsener can on my table is a memory – it memorizes how much i already drank. I doubt that our climatologist meant it this way, his statement sounds vaguely Lovelockian, maybe he wants to elevate himself into the higher echelon of climate change profits and sell overprized chinese-made trinkets to visitors of esoterian trade fairs.
    Oh, BTW, i found a nice wiki that tracks the trails of esoteric c*nmen:
    http://www.esowatch.com

  54. You people are far too harsh on poor Overland. If you had a videotape of him making these pronouncements and you looked very very carefully, you would have seen James Hansen crouched behind Overland with his hand up James ar*e, kinda like a puppet show.

  55. sounds familiar If we have warm winters its because of global warming, and if we have colder snowier winters its because of global warming. Again all bases are covered so that global warming will always be in the news.

  56. As the great Yogi Berra once said “I really didn’t say everything I said”.
    Really, is there anything at all that AGW can be pinned down on? Nothing seems to be falsifiable.

  57. ShrNfr says:
    June 13, 2010 at 3:17 pm
    Generational Memory – or lack thereof – you have it dead on.
    Sadly, I watch it play out on a daily basis in the computer industry. Most of the old timers have hung up their coding forms, put the pencils away, and thrown out the printouts, now the second generation is retiring, and we’re starting to see huge mistakes in code design and architecture that the “new systems” were supposed to prevent. The single most common mistake in programming today, is the same as it was in the ’50s. Use of variables without initializing them. Of course, object oriented code makes that impossible – right!
    Didn’t anyone tell people leaving the hard stuff until later is the way you fail? /rant
    Maybe that’s how the climatologists got lost, they’ve been leaving the hard stuff – clouds, volcanoes, multi-decade oscillations, until later, when they have more money.

  58. From today’s news:

    Emergency managers warned central Wyoming residents Sunday to prepare for more floods this week because of heavy snow falling in the Wind River Range.
    Snow totals could reach 5 feet at higher elevations, meaning another surge of water in rivers and streams as the snow melts, officials said.

    5 feet of snow … in the middle of June? Wow!

  59. Co2 causes more snow, colder weather as well as less snow and warmer weather.
    This is what happens when scientist sell their soles for a piece of gold and invest in “Green Energy Industries” that are heavily subsidized by government.
    To me, it’s pure greed.

  60. Well holy smokes! All these years I thought it was the cold that turned water into ice. I guess I ought to put those ice trays in the oven! 😉

  61. Gail,
    Hold onto your straw hat, girl. They are bringing Amplifiers to use wave patterns to break up the ice as it is not doing what it is suppose to do.
    Hence, they will be right one way or another.

  62. Yesterday, Seattle had its first day above 75 THIS YEAR. An all time record. A veritable heat wave as we’ve been doing well to hit 70.
    as one great cartoon (of commuters stuck in a snow drift) cheer put:
    what do we want? global warming
    when do we want it? NOW

  63. Every generation tries to reinvent the wheel. After much pain and failed experimentation they discover the wheel their father used and think wow. Some of the older and retired paleogeologists etc have the answers and are currently being derided by the new generation of whiz kids. Soon they will wake up and find the old data and say wow. Apparently NASA had some data referring to the warming/cooling on the moon in prep for the Apollo missions. Apparently that information was ignored by the current crop of NASA scientists. Expect a wow moment soon.

  64. “Overland and his co-author, Muyin Wang, a University of Washington research scientist with the Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean in Seattle, analyzed projections from six computer models, including three with sophisticated sea ice physics capabilities. That data was then combined with observations of summer sea ice loss in 2007 and 2008.”
    Models, models, models! When will these overpaid AGW zealots and climate shamans ever actually learn anything new, switch off their nonsensical computer games and actually go and have a look for themselves as to what is happening in the real world ?
    Reminds me of a long ago regional airport that in those days had the usual resident weather forecaster.
    At this particular airport he was located in a brick, windowless building.
    Happily broadcasting away one day to incoming aircraft that the official met office local aviation weather was CAVOK, ie; clear with unlimited visibility.
    Until a frustrated pilot told him in language that was anything but polite to stick his f**** head out the door and have a ff’ing look for himself.
    Silence!
    A minute or so later; Amended forecast! Heavy rain and poor and deteriorating visibility in local area .
    Would advise caution for all aircraft due to deteriorating weather conditions.
    At least that forecaster actually learn’t something and was prepared to shift ground quite dramatically unlike the current batch of AGW advocate climate modeling shamans.

  65. rbateman says:
    100′s of millions of people on this planet get the end result: warming Peter Popsickle Land to freeze the crud out of Paul Pedestrian Land.
    You forgot about Mary Proletariat, She will go fridget !

  66. It seems to me that it’s worse now than what it was before it was as bad as it is now.
    Please confirm that i have got that right or not or………
    [REPLY – It’s definitely one for Yogi Berra. ~ Evan]

  67. “The Arctic has a memory?”
    James Overland is well aware that the Arctic is a very sensitive part of Gaia and we all know she has a memory.
    Charles – do people like Overland who briefly become the centre of our collective attention ever get emailed a link to the relevant WUWT post and offered an opportunity to join the discussion?
    Could be worthwhile from both sides.

  68. This is so embarrassing, that I’m noticing that even the most dutiful trolls have abandoned this baby en masse.

  69. If the Arctic warms twice as fast as the rest of the globe cools, well…
    the Arctic wins a moot point being outvoted in area.

  70. Back of the envelope, please: How many warming Arctics fit in the cooling N. Temperate Zone?

  71. I’m sorry, but a theory that any observation supports is a junk theory.
    A theory of global warming that is supported by evidence of warming, cooling, more storms and less storms, etc. is garbage.

  72. Well, look at it this way.
    At least they/he admitted we had a cold winter.
    “The exceptionally chilly winter of 2009-2010”
    Can’t even use the word “cold”…………….

  73. Just another instalment of AGW verbal diarrhea, but I have to agree with this statement:
    “It is unlikely that the Arctic can return to its previous condition, Overland said. The changes are irreversible.”
    I think he is right, we are slowly going in to (using climate modellers terminology)
    LIA second edition or LIA v. 2.0

  74. INGSOC says:
    June 13, 2010 at 1:31 pm
    They really do think we are stupid. I am still waiting for all the supposed “principled” scientists to start jumping off the global warming dog and pony show.
    I don’t trust science any more.

    Please, don’t say that… Undergrowth science has existed always; nevertheless, the efforts of some people to vanish the usefulness of science have always ended in nothing and science will always be successful. These small slips will finish in a reinforcing of the real science, but true scientists must insist on revealing where the pseudoscience lies.

  75. Jimbo asks:
    Why do these people continue with their failed predictions?
    Because they are paid to do so. The government employed scientist produces the scientific results that are required by the government bureaucracy.
    The “scientists” in the employ of the government, AKA bureaucrats with degrees, are simply doing what ever is necessary for them to continue receiving a pay slip. The political warming bureaucrats need the scientific warming bureaucrats to produce more warming. And the scientist warmers are paid by the political warmers.
    This is a far clearer cause-and-effect relationship than any pseudo-science.

  76. “If the Arctic warms twice as fast as the rest of the globe cools, well…
    the Arctic wins a moot point being outvoted in area.”
    If it were happening, but it isn’t.
    What I believe is happening is pretty simple. The abyssal oceans are still recovering slowly in temperature from the LIA. We are talking about a HUGE amount of water from, say, 300 meters down to the bottom. If it increases in temperature by 0.01 degrees, it releases a large amount of CO2 to the atmosphere.
    The surface water is more tightly coupled to the atmosphere and surface conditions (sunlight, cloud cover, etc). The deep water has a lot of “thermal inertia”. It takes a long time to change its temperature. I believe the surface water has recovered from the LIA but I also believe that the abyssal water is still recovering.
    The planet experienced the coldest period since the Younger Dryas that lasted some 300 to 400 years. I do not believe the abyssal waters can recover in only 100 to 150 years. It is still recovering, in my view, and still releasing CO2 and will for probably another 100 to 200 years if we do not go back into another cool period.

  77. Chad Woodburn asks:
    My question is, when the inevitable cycle of climate change takes us into an indisputable cooling period, how will they blame that on our CO2?
    I can explain that to you, but I will have to resort to Portuguese 🙂

  78. “The region is warming more than twice as fast as the rest of the planet, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification.”
    Especially when amplified by fresh asphalt at Svalbard airport, UHI at Alert, Barrow, and Eureka, and faulty logging of temperatures all over the place. (The missing “M’s”)

  79. “The Arctic is often called the ‘Earth’s refrigerator’ because the sea ice helps cool the planet by reflecting the sun’s radiation back into space,” said Wang.
    ==============
    Said Wang.

  80. James Overland: “It’s a combination of natural variability, along with warmer air and sea conditions caused by increased greenhouse gases.”
    ============================
    Circular reasoning in action! [And funded by the taxpayer no doubt.]
    NOAA has no shame it seems, to let him talk like this.
    Fire the bastard.
    OH wait….I forgot. The current administration, unlike the last, is pro-science.
    So whatever NOAA or NASA says….must be true.
    Gimme a break.
    Chris
    Norfolk, VA, USA

  81. I just can’t wait to find out which one proves AGW theory. More snow or less snow.

  82. “It is unlikely that the Arctic can return to its previous condition, Overland said. The changes are irreversible.”
    1) This will affect me how?
    2) irreversible; sounds bad, change your vote bad ?

  83. James Allison says:
    June 13, 2010 at 6:09 pm
    Charles – do people like Overland who briefly become the centre of our collective attention ever get emailed a link to the relevant WUWT post and offered an opportunity to join the discussion?
    Could be worthwhile from both sides.

    We’ve had guest threads here within the past year by Hansen and a couple by the head of NSIDC. There may have been one or two more. I hope someone here will provide links.

  84. I think this is all rather easy to figure out in terms of how heat gets up there to melt stuff. Both the Pacific and Atlantic have a slow oceanic conveyor belt that eventually gets around to the openings of the Arctic, though usually not at the same time. Coupled with AO forces, you get warm currents (and those currents warm the air as well) melting the leading edge of the ice as it flows and spreads out of Fram, or gets pushed in, and likewise at the other opening. Eventually cool waters will follow those warm waters and lead to less melting, depending on the wind of course. Occasionally the forces work together to melt a bunch of it, or do the opposite, not melt much of it at all.
    Finally, I don’t see the Earth being capable of turning sharp corners or stopping on a dime. So it might take years, or even decades, to go from one coupled condition to another.
    Greenhouse gas re-radiation just isn’t a major player up there.

  85. We are living in a time when Universities, agencies, academies, etc., are giving answers politicians want to hear:

  86. “War is Peace; Freedom is Slavery; Ignorance is Strength.” and of course cold is hot.
    Appologies to Mr. Orwell.

  87. Overland knows he has a problem… if fact the AGW house of cards is on fire and he is trying to save the furniture with inside out/right side up speculation. Clearly by what I have read in the above article he’s reading tea leaves in a cup and doesn’t have a clue what’s going on.

  88. ROM says:
    June 13, 2010 at 5:47 pm
    Models, models, models!
    I’ve dated some. It’s worse than you think. 🙁

  89. Bill Illis
    June 13, 2010 at 4:03 pm
    If you did want to, and if Anthony approved, would you do a post on Arctic temps, ‘Polar Amplification’, with the paleo record, and the ‘Raw undetrended Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)’ figures you had in your comment. You know way too much to just be a commentator.

  90. The region is warming more than twice as fast as the rest of the planet, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification.
    ——
    Ok, the amp’s unplugged. Why didn’t someone at NOAA tell it was still on?

  91. Thanks, Olaf. As a geologist, I take that as a compliment. Geologists view the earth in million- and billion-year timeframes, with a wide variety of climate, and in none of those is man a factor. None. Man is merely an observer.

  92. This is from a paper on the cutting edge of understanding. It shouldn’t be taken as gospel, no matter how confident Overland feels. Rasmus at Real Climate doesn’t, for example.

    Some claim that reduced sea-ice can explain cold winters in the northern hemisphere, but I’m not yet convinced.

    This is one of the components of the issue that should currently be taken as unsettled science. Same goes for obs on the proposed Arctic amplification. Not enough data yet.

  93. I read it.
    I laughed, fell off my chair, got back on my chair, laughed harder then fell off again.
    Proving Einstein right, I hopped back on my chair, laughed and fell off once more.
    Seriously though – politically, the Elites have lost contact with (A) The Public’s ire (B) Reality and (C) Consequences for lying to Us…
    Their lackeys – embedded or ‘in-bed-with’ Journalists pump out absurd drama’s also immune to the ABC mentioned, as if they’ll be spared.
    Finally, their techno-bable priests rattle out a prognostication a minute, also ignorant of AB & C, hopeful to get a spot in the forthcoming apocalyptic Green zone – now with 90% more Green.
    They have become a thoroughly self-encapsulated Oligarchy of petulant morons fast tracking their own species to self annihilation, as some kind of mass human sacrifice to craven and false Gods. Why they don’t just prove their chops, storm Valhalla and wrestle with Odin, if they would be gods then why not?
    Cos they’re full of [SNIP] and they know it.
    keep an eye out for regional bargin sales of burning torches, pitchforks and kitchen knives,
    could be a real money spinner during the recession.

  94. Such a mish-mash from a climate “scientist.” He has no idea that Arctic warming is not caused by the greenhouse effect or by some magical ”Arctic amplification” but by warm currents entering the Arctic and melting ice. Peak warming occurred in the thirties. But it was interrupted from 1940 to 1960 and then resumed. By 2003 it had reached the level of the thirties and is now beyond it. What got it started in the first place was a rearrangement of the North Atlantic current system at the turn of the twentieth century that directed the Gulf Stream unto its present northerly course. Prior to that there had been a two thousand year cooling period as documented by Kaufman et al. last September. They themselves thought that carbon dioxide caused the warming but laws of physics rule it out. The Gulf Stream today enters the Arctic in a broad front between Iceland and Scandinavia and keeps the Russian Arctic ports ice free in the summer. It has melted away approximately a third of the sea ice that would exist in its absence. A smaller amount of warm water enters through the Bering Strait. Thanks to winds in 2007 more than the usual amount came through and melted a large puddle just north of the strait while the Gulf Stream side hardly changed. To get more details read “What Warming?” available from Amazon.com.

  95. The inducements of wealth, fame and power clearly motivate those who are willing to lie for advantage.

  96. There is a great writeup of Anthony Watts’ Sydney talk on Belmont Club by Richard Fernandez.

  97. It is unlikely that the Arctic can return to its previous condition…
    Of course it is.
    Panta rei!
    Everything flows (changes). Even the old Greeks knew this. That statement will be true whatever happens. Unless nothing happens. Which in fact is very unlikely. 🙂

  98. “analyzed projections from six computer models, including three with sophisticated sea ice physics capabilities.”
    Oh dear!
    I’m so impressed! A super duper computer with magic capabilities! Can I touch you?

  99. Wren says:
    June 13, 2010 at 9:07 pm

    Overland probably also thinks hot water can freeze faster than warm water.

    I don’t know about HOT water freezing faster than warm, but it is true that WARM water will freeze quicker than cold water.
    You can do the experiment in your freezer.

  100. You have to admit though it is a very clever trick. If reality destroys your beliefs then change the reality to suit, cults do it all the time and the political classes have become experts at it over time.
    What is rather sad is how people can twist and contort their principles rather than admit their beliefs are mistaken, the fact that so money and prestige has been loaded onto scientists who have peddled the AGW myth means it will be so much harder to admit their own falibility and errors.
    This whole turbo charged ‘plate tectonics’ fiasco is going to destroy a whole generation of scientists, the damage done to real science will be lasting, the utter waste of money has set science back decades with real scientists unable to do real work.
    This coming winter looks like it will be the hardest in living memory and many will suffer with massive increases in energy bills in the middle of a deep recession and no money left to adapt to the new reality, we can look forward to years of long cold winters and the real suffering will commence for ordinary people . Its always the ordianary people who suffer for the utter stupidity of our ruling classes.

  101. As an addendum to my post above, the condition is called the Mpemba effect.
    Here is A LINK that explains why this happens under certain conditions.

  102. According to the temperature datasets from CRU and UAH, the Arctic has not warmed at all for several years. And according to the CRU record, it is about as warm now as it was around 1940. So how could it become warmer faster than the rest of the world?

  103. While it may seem counter-intuitive, warmer Arctic climes caused by climate change influence air pressure at the North Pole, shifting wind patterns in such a way as to boost cooling over adjacent swathes of the planet.
    So, warmer Arctic air (lower pressure) will cause colder Equatorial air (higher pressure) to flow northward, thus boosting cooling in the Temperate Zones?
    Got it, boss.
    So, now we know the *real* reason lizards are disappearing in Mexico and Africa — they’re hiding under the Equatorial snow blanket.

  104. It’s a real shame for those of us (me as well) about to feel the consequences of the impending economic meltdown, but at least it will divert media attention from climate catastrophe and who knows, may even divert some funding away from the green mafia. Can but hope

  105. Overland’s bizarre conclusions are testimony of the poor state of climate “science” at NOAA.
    It appears to be ambitious to draw long term conclusions from a 2 year weather pattern, especially, if previous theories are overturned.
    On the other side, Overland is now only 1 step away from claiming that artic warming may cause global cooling.

  106. When I first started work, an old bloke on the job summed up politicians, civil servants and all the types who want to spend someone elses money, in one sentence about the laws of forecasting on the toss of a coin – ‘Heads they win, tails you lose!”

  107. James Allison:
    We’d be happy to offer Overland a guest post or more, but given my attitude towards his pronouncements expressed here I may not be the best one to contact him.
    Feel free and let us know the results.

  108. Slaone says: June 13, 2010 at 8:52 pm
    “Clearly by what I have read in the above article he’s reading tea leaves in a cup” (of coffee) ” and doesn’t have a clue what’s going on.”

  109. Nasif Nahle says:
    June 13, 2010 at 6:57 pm
    Nasif
    Good to see you here again. You are of course absolutely correct. Science does eventually change itself. Witness the fights over quantum physics/classicalo physics etc. The problem is that it takes many years for science to get its act together and by then the climate has changed on them yete again. They are always one cycle behind the curve.

  110. What Overland is a classic image of is ALL members of the current “official” climate science community. In my opinion, they lack the fundamental science knowledge and skills to be able to analyse, deduce and conclude from the data they have to hand. Whether this lack of ability is deliberately hidden or they truely do lack it I’m not sure but when I look at the education of these people it reminds a lot of the degrees that can be purchased from US unis. Not worth the paper they are printed on.

  111. A news item from page 14 of Issue 929 of the Intermountain Farm & Ranch reports the level of destruction caused by this past cold winter in Mongolia, where a third of the population of 2.7 million people are herders. The winter of snow, cold and gales so severe Mongolians have a special term for it – “dzud”, killed 8.2 million animals, nearly a fifth of all livestock in a country where wealth is measured in yak, cows, goats, and horses. While the Mongolian government attributed it to “climate change”, you’d be hard pressed to convince the struggling herders that such a devestating winter was anything but colder. And it is the cold, rather than warmth, that kills.

  112. Baa Humbug says warm water freezes quicker than cold.
    True. Its the evaporation taking the heat away faster. But its the rate of cooling that is quicker. It’s the same principle that is used to turn gases to liquid, eg, O², N etc. They pump the surface of the gas/liquid to cool it.

  113. K has it right – look at 1984’s Big Brother. The govt run media, the “scientific” and “political science” elite KNOW how we are all supposed to think. I’m an engineer; if our predictions don’t work, the failures are obvious and the next set of products improve (unless mgt stands in the way). But, if scientists get it wrong, the predictions just morph and old predictions disappear down the memory hole.

  114. stephen richards
    June 14, 2010 at 4:40 am
    “The phase of the Arctic Oscillation was at its most negative in the
    1960s, exhibited a general trend toward a more positive
    phase from about 1970 to the early 1990s, and has
    remained mostly positive since.”
    Thanks for your link which includes the above comment.
    I think one needs to update their findings by accepting that the phase has now become negative.
    I think there is support there for my assertion that the phase of the AO is in some way associated with the level of solar activity.

  115. And then there is this:
    “Bond et al. (2001) suggested variations in solar insolation.
    Changes in the thermohaline circulation or modes
    of atmospheric variability, such as the AO, may also have
    been primary forcing mechanisms of century- or
    millennial-scale changes in the Holocene climate of the
    North Atlantic. It is possible that solar forcing may
    excite modes of atmospheric variability that, in turn,
    may amplify climate changes.The Arctic, through its
    linkage with the Nordic Seas, may be a key region
    where solar-induced atmospheric changes are amplified
    and transmitted globally through their effect on the
    thermohaline circulation.The resulting reduction in
    northward heat transport may have further altered
    latitudinal temperature and moisture gradients.”
    My New Climate Model provides a logical and observationally sound narrative linking all those factors in a coherent manner.
    Leif, what say you ?

  116. Wren says:
    June 13, 2010 at 9:07 pm
    Overland probably also thinks hot water can freeze faster than warm water.
    Having lived in the north, I can vouch for the fact that the hot water pipe always freezes first. It has something to do with driving out absorbed gases.

  117. “What was not fully recognized until now is that a combination of an unusual warm period due to natural variability, loss of sea ice reflectivity, ocean heat storage, and changing wind patterns all working together to disrupt the memory and stability of the Arctic climate system,” he said.”
    Overland’s fragmented sentence structure above seems to show a general confusion in his thought process. His subject, “unusual warm period due to…etc.” “all working together to disrupt… etc.” is left flapping in the wind. Could this be due to extreme cognitive dissonance, perhaps?

  118. My mates over at the Seers and Prognosticators Society asked me to complain on their behalf.
    They feel they are being driven into poor esteem by the AGW crew as they , SEAPS, take care to ensure their visions for the future are suitably vague and couched in terms that can easily mean many things simultaneously. This amateur is just too damned obvious, they say.

  119. Well, catastrophic AGW proves itself to be a religious cult. It strongly resembles Millerism. William Miller predicted the end of the world in 1843. When it didn’t happen, he moved the date to 1844. Thousands had sold their possessions in preparation for the end, it was called “The Great Disappointment”.
    For decades we were told to expect snow-free winters. Municipalities even cutback on snow clearing budgets in preparation. We’ve gotten quite the opposite for a few winters… and now the goalpost moves. Again. Catastrophic AGW is another Great Disappointment.

  120. When the polar high pressure cells drift equatorward during a period of negative polar oscillations that allows more inflow of warm air into the polar regions at the same time as there is a greater flow of cold air to the mid latitudes….That seems to happen more often and/or with greater intensity when the solar surface is inactive as now
    This is why is interesting to ponder about causes:
    http://www.holoscience.com/news.php?article=9eq6g3aj
    and
    http://www.xearththeory.com/introdis_earth_electromagnetic_coil_transformers_step_up_down.html

  121. Richard Garnache says:
    June 14, 2010 at 6:14 am
    “the hot water pipe always freezes first”
    What while they are full of Hot Water?

  122. The whole concept of the ‘memory of the climate system’ is pretty suspicious. Essentially, ‘memory’ is a modelling term, and its physical explanations are constantly changing.

  123. Robert of Ottawa says:
    June 13, 2010 at 7:04 pm
    Jimbo asks:
    “Why do these people continue with their failed predictions?
    Because they are paid to do so. The government employed scientist produces the scientific results that are required by the government bureaucracy.
    The “scientists” in the employ of the government, AKA bureaucrats with degrees, are simply doing what ever is necessary for them to continue receiving a pay slip.”
    What other professions are we going to slander in Moncktonian fashion?
    Perhaps Arctic scientists who see the obvious disintegration of the ice cap. They must be looking forward to losing their jobs when the Arctic Ocean becomes open water.
    Or why should we even bother believing that men landed on the Moon? NASA, obviously a government bureaucracy, must have faked it by your logic, in order to get government funds.
    —————————————————————————————
    • • wayne says:
    June 13, 2010 at 9:18 pm
    “The region is warming more than twice as fast as the rest of the planet, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification.
    Ok, the amp’s unplugged. Why didn’t someone at NOAA tell it was still on?”
    Because the amp has not been unplugged. It is 4-9 degrees Fahrenheit warmer in the Arctic region than normal.
    From NSIDC which uses data from thermal imaging satellites:
    http://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaicenews/20100608_Figure4.png
    As well as this statement to the immediate right of the image:
    http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
    Persistent warmth in the Arctic
    “Arctic air temperatures averaged for May were above normal, continuing the temperature trend that has persisted since last winter. Temperatures were 2 to 5 degrees Celsius (4 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit) above average across much of the Arctic Ocean.”
    —————————————————————————————
    latitude says:
    June 13, 2010 at 6:46 pm
    “Well, look at it this way.”
    At least they/he admitted we had a cold winter. Al Gore’s Holy Hologram says: “
    June 13, 2010 at 2:26 pm
    “Save this stuff on your hard drives for future reference and comparison, as usual.”
    Please do!
    —————————————————————————————
    latitude says:
    June 13, 2010 at 2:01 pm
    “Rapid fluctuations in sea ice is weather….
    ….a .5 degree increase in long term temperature trends, is climate.
    Can sea ice tell the difference between -40 and -39.5?”
    1.
    Ahhhhhh (while I scratch my head), let’s see. Could it have something to do with the season?
    In the SUMMER it goes above 32 F. The average Arctic temperature having been 3-4 F above normal and this year 4-9 F (except for the Canadian Arctic Islands). That causes direct melt.
    2.
    You could also see other effects by looking at one of those low flying, low speed airplane video shots which show a lot of ponding on the top of the ice. Ponding is the presence of pools of water that have melted on top of the ice.
    Since water absorbs 80% of sunlight whereas ice reflects 80-90% of sunlight (depending on conditions) it increases in temperature even more and it starts melting the ice beneath it all the way down to the sea. This begins the process of disintegration that leads to “rotten ice” which is much more vulnerable to melting than solid ice of the same thickness.
    What a pity, those ponds are a very pretty shade of blue.
    3.
    Then there is the general absorption of sunlight by water during the summer. As soon as the shrinking ice cap started exposing more and and more ocean the water got warmer and proceeded to nibble away at the edges of the ice cap and slip in under the ice cap.
    Thus the Arctic ice cap is being attacked from three sides. Warmer air above and warmer waters to the sides as well as underneath.
    These are just some
    —————————————————————————————
    • • Bill Illis says:
    June 13, 2010 at 4:03 pm
    “Temps in the Arctic were roughly as high in the 1940s.”
    I don’t know what in our weather system would have caused that but let’s assume for the sake of argument that this is correct. How long was it at those temperatures? The effects after all are cumulative. It would have needed to have lasted at least 30 years to have had the same effects as our current situation.

  124. BBC Springwatch Weatherview report just said last winter was 2C below UK long term average and spring was latest for over a decade.

  125. there is no point in discussing the science behind this article. there is none.
    it is simply propaganda, meant to generate scary headlines and manipulate people.

  126. villabolo says:
    June 14, 2010 at 4:20 pm

    • • wayne says:
    June 13, 2010 at 9:18 pm
    “The region is warming more than twice as fast as the rest of the planet, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification.
    Ok, the amp’s unplugged. Why didn’t someone at NOAA tell it was still on?”

    Because the amp has not been unplugged. It is 4-9 degrees Fahrenheit warmer in the Arctic region than normal.
    From NSIDC which uses data from thermal imaging satellites:
    http://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaicenews/20100608_Figure4.png
    As well as this statement to the immediate right of the image:
    http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
    Persistent warmth in the Arctic
    “Arctic air temperatures averaged for May were above normal, continuing the temperature trend that has persisted since last winter. Temperatures were 2 to 5 degrees Celsius (4 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit) above average across much of the Arctic Ocean.”

    _________________________________
    4-9 ºF warmer huh? I’ll trust Denmark, they (EU) live up there and have a hell-of-a long term stable trustable system, NOAA (NSIDC) first needs to fix the U.S. temperature records and remove the adjustments before they can tackle the arctic, beside, it’s been at or below average in the arctic mostly since mid-May. See:
    http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
    //amp off

  127. “When the polar high pressure cells drift equatorward during a period of negative polar oscillations that allows more inflow of warm air into the polar regions at the same time as there is a greater flow of cold air to the mid latitudes….That seems to happen more often and/or with greater intensity when the solar surface is inactive as now”
    The majority of solar minimums with fewer sunspots, actually are warmer than average for the mid lattitudes, its the minimums with higher SSN that tend to have more cold winters. The last couple of years are unusual in that SSN has been low, as well as absolute numbers of coronal holes, coupled with low solar wind speeds.
    It is unlikely that the Arctic can return to its previous condition, Overland said. The changes are irreversible.

  128. villabolo says:
    June 14, 2010 at 4:20 pm

    OMG that’s brilliant. You learn all that at RC?

  129. The very fact that they’re willing to change their post-predictions so readily is suspicious in itself. After all, the last few years could be a ‘blip’, an effect of other factors that don’t affect long-term trends that the theory is meant to predict. In fact, there have been arguments of this sort bruited about in the recent past. (I don’t have the references at hand or a sufficient command of this material to provide pointers.)
    In general, it doesn’t speak well for a theory whose predictions can turn on a dime, performing a 180-degree shift in the process. That’s what the Freudians were known for.
    But I suppose that lability of this sort is one of the hallmarks of post-modern science.

  130. @Cassandra King says:
    June 13, 2010 at 11:34 pm
    “This coming winter looks like it will be the hardest in living memory”
    What makes you say that?

  131. “What was not fully recognized until now …”
    How many times do they have to say this before they get a hint that maybe they still lack “full recognition”?
    Its like “Chicken Little” meets “The Boy Who Cried Wolf”.

  132. World cup news notes that the first snow in 20 years is falling in South Africa. Another goal for the IPCC! Or not.

  133. lnocsifan says:
    June 16, 2010 at 1:16 pm
    World cup news notes that the first snow in 20 years is falling in South Africa. Another goal for the IPCC! Or not.

    Heh! At least they didn’t say it was the worst first snow in 100 years, like the rains in Kentucky and the winds in Monterrey.

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