When I last wrote about the solar activity situation, things were (as Jack Horkheimer used to say) “looking up”. Now, well, the news is a downer. From the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) all solar indices are down, across the board:
The radio activity of the sun has been quieter:
And the Ap Geomagnetic Index has taken a drop after peaking last month:
WUWT contributor Paul Stanko writes:
As has been its pattern, Solar Cycle 24 has managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. The last few months of raw monthly sunspot numbers from the Solar Influences Data Analysis Center (SIDC) in Belgium are: January = 12.613, February = 18.5, March = 15.452, April = 7.000 and May = 8.484. After spending 3 months above the criteria for deep solar minimum, we’re now back in the thick of it.
The 13 month smoothed numbers, forecast values and implication for the magnitude of the cycle peak are as follows:
- June 2009 had a forecast of 5.5, actual of 2.801, implied peak of 45.83
- July 2009 had a forecast of 6.7, actual of 3.707, implied peak of 49.79
- August 2009 had a forecast of 8.1, actual of 5.010, implied peak of 55.67
- September 2009 had a forecast of 9.7, actual of 6.094, implied peak of 56.55
- October 2009 had a forecast of 11.5, actual of 6.576, implied peak of 51.46
- November 2009 had a forecast of 12.6, actual of 7.190, implied peak of 51.36
- December 2009 had a forecast of 14.6, actual would require data from June.
Solar Cycle 24 now has accumulated 810 spotless days. 820, which would require only 10 more spotless days, would mean that Cycle 24 was one standard deviation above the mean excluding the Dalton and Maunder Grand Minima.
One standard deviation is often an accepted criteria for considering an occurrence ‘unusual’.
Here are the latest plots from Paul Stanko:
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Someone upthere pull the hand break:
http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/Solar?date=0&utc=2069%2F07%2F20+20%3A17%3A43&jd=2476948.34564&img=-k1&sys=-Sf&eyes=0&imgsize=600&orb=-b2&lat=50&ns=North&lon=7%B0&ew=East&hlat=90%B0&hns=North&hlon=0%B0&elements=
With Jupiter and Uranus in one side and Saturn on the other, gotto to wait until next november (no kidding, no elections up there)
Do you suppose that this, coupled with a La Nina starting will lead to a cooler 2nd half of the year and maybe 5-7 more years to come, as like per David Achibald’s theories? The sun has been in the tank for 3 years, I think the cooling he predicted is due this summer? I personally would like him to be right, self interest hopes he’s wrong…
Hmm. Very low solar activity, La Nina on the horizon. Looks like its back to the good ol’ cold days of the 60-70’s. Good for fish not so good for crops.
Anthony, Leif is going to bring down the rain on this.
How is this blip unusual? How are solar Minima unusual?
Look back, the data are spikey.
All we can do is sit and watch … By now you would think NASA with their scary press releases would have figured it out. We do not control the sun, no matter what they make people think. No more than we control the weather…….
But frankly, it is a good time for science, we can now watch with modern instruments, that could open our eyes to new discovery. What is bad about that?
Expect the polar oscillations to stay negative and the stratosphere to gradually reverse the cooling of the late 20th century.
http://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/sola/5/0/53/_pdf
“The evidence for the cooling trend in the stratosphere may need to be
revisited. This study presents evidence that the stratosphere has been
slightly warming since 1996.”
The evidence for a direct solar link to the strength of the temperature inversion at the tropopause is becoming stronger by the day with all that that entails for the air circulation patterns, cloud distribution and albedo effects as described by me previously on this site and also here:
http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=5497
We could be waiting for 30-40 years for a decent solar output of kind we saw in 2000.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/NFC7.htm
Dead cat bounce, eh?
the daily AP is much more revealing. right now the individual days are much lower, and the higher monthly average is the product of a few more active days raising the average. in the past, each day is higher, with the monthly average being closer to each day.
and noaa greatly exagerates the sunspot count relative to the historical record.
so overall, activity is still extraordinarily low
This story might have been a little premature: http://news.yahoo.com/s/space/20100609/sc_space/moreactivesunmeansnastysolarstormsahead
So what is driving the recent warming if it isn’t the sun?
How come we have 3 of the hotest years in the last 100 in the most spotless days list?
isn’t it contradicting the sun spots climate theory?
NASA predictions for solar cycle 24 have plummeted from “one of the most intense” to now one of the least intense cycles of the past 400 years:
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2010/06/solar-cycle-prediction-lowered-again.html
Forgive my ignorance, but isn’t this in direct contrast to the stories on Drudge and elswhere stating that we are going to have massive storms?
“nil says:
June 10, 2010 at 12:02 pm
How come we have 3 of the hotest years in the last 100 in the most spotless days list?”
Urban effects, station drop outs, manipulation. And satellite don’t count as it wasn’t around 100 years ago. Or even 50.
MattN says: June 10, 2010 at 11:56 am
This story might have been a little premature: http://news.yahoo.com/s/space/20100609/sc_space/moreactivesunmeansnastysolarstormsahead
LOL I believe it is NASA that is premature.
The daily AP shows an even quieter picture. Just a few active days pushed up the average.
For a good picture of sunspot activity check the laymans count.
Dont’ worry though, the Sun has no effect on climate.
Tarpon:
But frankly, it is a good time for science, we can now watch with modern instruments…..hope not with modern lies too.
Where’s Big Al? And the jerky Sen. Graham? All that CO2 is even screwing up the sun! Somebody do something… ready, fire, aim…. er, wait a minute….
Is this good for skiers?
Hello Leif
Can you please provide an update on sunspot magnetic field strength and how it’s trending in relation to Livingston and Penn’s analysis?
http://www.leif.org/EOS/2009EO300001.pdf
vukcevic:
This is more dramatic:
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LP-project1.gif
This is one of those “Good news, bad news” stories. High solar activity is not such a great thing either. Think CME’s, etc. that trash satellites, cause blackouts, increase the risk of various cancers, etc. Pick your poison.
Sunspot numbers had better get ramping up soon.
@ur momisuglyEnneagram says:
June 10, 2010 at 11:34 am
If its sunspots you`re after, then the proximity of the inner planets with Jupiter, from late August to late October will produce a whole series.
@ur momisuglyMattN says:
June 10, 2010 at 11:56 am
“This story might have been a little premature:”
I don`t think so, larger solar storms tend to happen through maximums following long quiet minimums.
@ur momisuglyRoald says:
June 10, 2010 at 12:01 pm
“So what is driving the recent warming if it isn’t the sun?”
The solar wind speed has returned to levels not seen since late 2007.
@ur momisugly nil says:
June 10, 2010 at 12:02 pm
“How come we have 3 of the hotest years in the last 100 in the most spotless days list?
isn’t it contradicting the sun spots climate theory?”
A good deal of the theory is back to front. The larger proportion of long quiet minimums display above normal surface temp`s, minimums with higher SSN will have more cold episodes/winters. Over the whole cycle, more cold winters will be found around maximum. Its all to do with the balance between spots and coronal holes.
@nil
“How come we have 3 of the hotest years in the last 100 in the most spotless days list?
isn’t it contradicting the sun spots climate theory?”
Not really… There could be up to a decade lag between low solar activity and noticeable effect on climate.