This really is a low, why would anyone mess with kids on something like this? There is madness about. Ecotretas looks at the Beeville, TX station data, and I’ve visited the site personally but deferred the survey to surfacestations volunteer Juan Slayton who surveyed it about the same time. What Ecotretas is observing is the change from USHCN1 to USHCN2 adjustment algoritms. – Anthony
Guest post by Ecotretas
Great interest has developed on the Internet relating to the story about Julisa Castillo’s “Disproving Global Warming” project. It admittedly had received a NSF prize, with Al Gore in the jury. It has now been confirmed as most probably a strange hoax.
While most of the Internet is judging why would Al Gore be in this jury, or if there is such a thing as “National Science Fair” associated with the National Science Foundation (note the same initials), which both set my BS detector very high on Sunday, I was quickly on the run to find out what temperatures were like in Beeville, TX. Checking out the paper’s claims was far more interesting than being skeptic about the news…
First thing to check was for USHCN data. Quick to find it out at the GISS website, and first graph above. Looking at it, I wondered what type of station was this. I went to the surfacestations.org site, and discovered it was a reasonably well located station. But then, the temperature graph, a little more than one year old, was slightly different, as can be seen in the above second graph.
Looks like there was some tweaking going on! But discovering anything more about Beeville seemed pretty difficult. Some interesting information about the station can be found at NOAA. But what really surprised me was the graph uploaded by “Tom in Texas”, referenced in the comments section in a Watts Up With That post. It shows that adjustment data for Beeville is greater than 2ºF for the last 110 years.
While other information might help in settling all these different graphs, it seems like the real news will be about how temperatures are being dealed with in Beeville…
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latitude says: “To do your own area go to…” I would if I could netdr. When I click on Florida on the map, I get stations in Mexico.
Obviously Florida is ‘teleconnected’ to Mexico.
From: James Sexton on June 8, 2010 at 9:23 pm
I’ve found myself on that site a few times, following Googled links. If you don’t mind seeing climate skeptics frequently called the “d” word, said usage being far from discouraged and arguably encouraged, perhaps even think they have certainly earned the epithet, then perhaps you will indeed find it a fine site with fine people. 😉
Duh. Are these people delusional? Or simply idiots? And they call themselves “scientists”? Yes the world has warmed. Likely exaggerated a bit. But it has been warmer. And my fire place, in the tropics, tells me it has been cooling for about a year. Get over it.
Z says:
June 8, 2010 at 5:25 pm
“REPLY: Cut him some slack, he’s not a US citizen, he’s writing in a second language. -A
“Although the grammar/spelling nazis may seem to be having a go to you (and you seem very sensitive to it) in virtually all instances they are just trying to help people put a final “buff” onto the product they’re producing.
“English is a bit of a pain with its irregular verbs, similar synonyms and abhorrent apostrophes but that’s what editors normally do for writers, and they are quite an important part of the publishing process.
“REPLY: In a perfect world, I’d have time to do this. – Anthony”
____________
I agree with Z. In the time it took to justify the error, and then to explain why it wasn’t fixed, it could have been fixed more than once. It would have taken only a few seconds. I’m familiar with WordPress and its editing function.
If one is going to publish an article, doesn’t it make sense to proof it first? Even in an imperfect world?
tokyoboy says:June 8, 2010 at 7:40 pm
netdr says: …….. June 8, 2010 at 6:05 pm ……
Re the Albany, Texas temp data I mentioned above, search for the “raw GHCN data + USHCN corrections” does not yield the graph I used to see two years ago, which exhibited a very monotonous 1-degC cooling trend from 1892 to 2007. The current graph is a tilted hockey stick, being in no way similar to the good old one. Does this mean that the graph I was familiar with two years ago was “raw GHCN data” before “USHCN corrections”, and is no more searcheable ??
I’m afraid so, tokyoboy. What you get served up as “raw” data at
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/station_data/
looks like USHCN Version 2 data, which has been homogenized, pasteurized, blendered, rendered, and comes out pretty close to the old fictionalized GISS Homogenized data.
I’ve heard the real raw data is still available somewhere, but I don’t know where one goes to get a charted version. I have comparison charts for Illinois, real raw versus Version 2 adjusted “raw” data. 81k downloads so far. I have Iowa and Wisconsin, too.
It’s a real powerless feeling you get when you see them pulling something like this off and there’s nothing you can do about it.
netdr: June 8, 2010 at 8:11 pm
To do your own area go to:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/station_data/
Select adjusted or unadjusted
Please share what you find with us.
Done. Some sample cruising in my AO (Iraq) turned up something interesting — most of the locations claiming continuous records up to 1990 or beyond actually end at 1980, and there are some odd discrepancies. For instance, H-4, which is a military base about fifty feet from the middle of nowhere actually has a continuous record from 1961 to 2010
H-4 ‘Irwaishe 32.5 N 38.2 E 624402500001 rural area 1961 – 2010
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/gistemp_station.py?id=624402500001&data_set=1&num_neighbors=1
but Baghdad has a continuous record running from 1888, which ends in 1980, rather than the claimed 1990 —
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/gistemp_station.py?id=209406500000&data_set=1&num_neighbors=1
Arak claims recordings from 1971 to 2010, but there’s a 29-year gap (missing data) between 1980 and 2009.
Arak 34.1 N 49.4 E 208407690000 115,000 1971 – 2010
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/gistemp_station.py?id=208407690000&data_set=1&num_neighbors=1
Slightly OT, but the lizards here are doing just fine and we’ve had a bumper crop of Bufo surdus — cute li’l things.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Earless_Toad
@lynn
As I understood Cheifio, the ‘raw’ data have already been ‘QC’ed .
The recent data seemed more likely to have large negative points suppressed?
At least, the recent short records have reduced ‘scatter’ with fewer thermometers, than the older records with more thermometers…
Usually having more sources in the composite makes for less ‘noisy’ aggregate.
So, yes, you probably pointed to the most ‘raw’ available data, but it may already ‘value added’ data…
And the QC processes are hidden from view, not even reported in ‘the litrachure’…
No?
RR
RR
James Sexton says:
[–snip–] What’s left? It’s just us “developed” peoples that seem to twit about climate and create fictional history. Has anyone looked into why it seems to be just a few players (in terms of cultures) in the climate alarmism? It’s really giving me a complex.
Well, ya see? It’s as this: Most ‘westerners’ have had their intelligence educated out of them by the so-called ‘public schools.’
I should not have to ‘splain further!
The above comments (and not the first ) on the use of English show the arrogance and deep ignorance of the commentators, I was born in Ulan Bator , went to school and University in Ulan Bator and if any person tried to speak or write in my language the entire population would show respect even if they could not decipher or understand, the commentators of English grammar and spelling should go visit Gavin were they will be appreciated, after all he is renowned for the excellence of his site !
“James Sexton says:
June 8, 2010 at 7:37 pm
lmao! latitude and Florida has been….extrapolated!!!!”
LOL Si Senor!
kim says:
June 8, 2010 at 5:10 pm
What we need is a copy of all the original readings.
Is this still available?
If not, I guess there’s no evidence for anything.
In a civil or criminal matter, all would be tossed out and case is dismissed.
We can then rebuild a temperature database, properly sited and monitored stations, capable of determining UHI effects, with multiple copies kept throughout world.
Then we can sit around for about thirty years and discuss long term temperature changes. At that point and decision can be made regarding AGW.
Doug in Seattle @ur momisugly 7:52 PM
That’s a fine link, too, but the one I meant is the one that Graeme W placed @ur momisugly 7:27PM. She is just a bit more explicit about the need for a new surface temperature data set. That whole glacier thread at climateaudit is great, and it looks like real work got done. Lonnie Thompson has certainly been challenged, and by a paid up member of the climate science community, to archive his data.
======================
I live in North Carolina and did a quick look at my state. It is VERY interesting.
There is nothing closer to the mountains than Chapel Hill which is just west of Raleigh. All the areas with longitudes further west are also further south and that puts them on the seacoast. Chapel Hill is on the plains. Seems the mountain areas are no longer part of the record, imagine that.
Wunderground
I also found that at Wunderground the Moncure NC station is no longer available, it flips you to the new Sanford NC airport. It was available the last time I looked. Asheville NC is the big city in the mountains, home of the Biltmore Estate (1895) Its weather station now only goes back to 2005 at the AIRPORT of course. The site also directs you to the “nearby” (80 miles) city of Greenville (downtown) which only goes back to 1970. That site has been declared “unofficial” The “official” station is now the Greenville/Spartanburg, South Carolina (Airport)
Here is a quick look at the only city & close by airport listed for North Carolina. The city is on the North Carolina/Virgina border and right on the ocean. Take a look at the city vs the airport! Norfolk City and Norfolk International Airport
The Raleigh North Carolina area is in the piedmont area of North Carolina. It is far from both the mountains and the sea coast. Here is an Elevation map and North Carolina map of cities
North to south through the middle of the state
North – Raleigh NC
Middle – Fayetteville NC
South – Lumberton NC
Coastal Cities:
North – Elisabeth City
South – Wilmington NC
Rural
North – Louisburg
South – Southport
Here is the raw 1856 to current Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
Amazing how the temperatures follow the Atlantic ocean oscillation as long as the weather station is not sitting at an airport isn’t it?
One degree, two degrees….what’s the difference? Beeville’s hot. Man, it’s hot. It’s like Africa hot. Tarzan couldn’t take this kind of hot.
Zev2go, WUWT?
Maybe she can post her project up on WUWT.
“James Sexton says:
June 8, 2010 at 4:23 pm
I hate being a spell/grammar demon, especially when I’ve my own problems with it, but, it’s “dealt with” not “dealed with”.
REPLY: Cut him some slack, he’s not a US citizen, he’s writing in a second language. -A”
I agree to your reply Anthony, English is not an easy language to master, even for English people like myself. For my wife, it is her 4th language, even her “native tongue” is her second language. And the English (Not like the “proper English English” as in the Austin Powers movies – a hoot IMO) as we know today is thanks to a bunch of…wait for it…politicians!
Parle vous Francais? Non! Jus sui Anglais!
But yes, this is a hoax, but not unusual for this crowd.
Grammar/spelling Nazis should beware of Muphry’s law.
The Earth Charter is being taught to the children all over the world:
Hopefully (for “them”) the next generations won´t have such pernicious sources like WUWT. The Earth Charter, a must read:
http://www.earthcharterinaction.org/content/pages/Read-the-Charter.html
“Still boggles the mind that Hansen, et al, consider “The Greatest Generation” to have been too stupid to read a thermometer.”
It is an odd phenomenon – the younger generations always think that their new ways of doing things are far superior to the older way of doing things to the point that they invalidate any work done prior to theirs. That advances in science somehow correlate to advances in our brains. When the fact is that the same ingenuity that went into creating the printing press went into creating the computer. The opposite phenomenon which portrays the older generation as far more wise and moral than the next generations will ever be is just as pervasive though. I love hearing the “back in my day” speeches. I like to point out that my dad got his first drunk and disorderly conduct at age 12 to the people who like to say that kids today are worse than they once were. Your sample size of 2 parents does not have a lot of power (just as mine does not) for predicting the population.
Here’s a thought; this is a terrible way of bringing up a data quality issue.
Whatever the case as it relates to Beeville and the USHCN data, this little girl has (apparently) been used as a pawn or a dupe, possibly for the purpose of bringing these station adjustments to light.
I think it’s best to drop it completely until such time someone with some time, experience and a deeper knowledge of the subject can produce a well documented analysis of the Beeville record.
To hitch this topic to the science fair hoax is to perpetuate and legitimize what is, at it’s base, a very cruel prank on a little girl who should not be dragged into this at all.
Her parents ought to have investigated this in more detail before allowing the press to publish the story. Hopefully they aren’t duplicitous in the hoax, but given the state of the world today, that would indeed fit the template.
Shame on everyone for keeping this out there, after knowing full well it was a hoax.
Paul says:
June 9, 2010 at 9:08 am
Though, as time passed away, J.H. is as old as many retirees here, so he is too beginning to expect those “trains” that will take us all in a trip of no return.
Jump up buddy!
Just posted more information at my blog regarding Beeville: http://ecotretas.blogspot.com/2010/06/more-about-beeville.html
The most interesting part is that a linear trendline for the raw monthly data shows that temperatures have been going down in the last 113 years!!!
And just look at the hottest months:
1951/8 888
2009/7 880
1998/7 879
1952/8 878
2009/8 877
1953/7 876
1902/8 875
1998/6 872
1897/7 871
1915/7 871
1980/7 871
1914/7 869
1915/8 869
1916/6 869
1938/7 869
1951/7 869
1958/8 869
1911/8 868
1954/8 867
1927/8 866
Only four months in the Top20 months can be considered recent!
Might Julisa Castillo deserve a prize, after-all?
Ecotretas
And here, al gore (mr uranium dust) slithers out
from under his BP gulf
oil catastrophe rock–
one of the many rocks under which he
lurks –
http://www.blogster.com/joannemor/bombshell-expose-the-real-reason-the-oil-still-flows-into-the-gulf-of-mexico
REPLY: Thats just silly, way off the scale, non issue -A
It was silly when I said it. But, who’d have thought supposed intellectuals would be calling for imprisonment of those who don’t go along with the consensus or suggesting democracy be scrapped in favor of more authoritarian forms of government to better respond to the “crisis”?
Who’d have thought mainstream scientists could openly alter data to fit their theories and the scientific community not see the slightest problem with such behavior?
We’re not there yet but a day may come when truth can not be stored on any web server; or, for that matter, even on our own personal computers, and be expected not to have been improved upon next time we call it up.