The Beeville Science Fair Hoax – but look at the story the data tells

This really is a low, why would anyone mess with kids on something like this? There is madness about. Ecotretas looks at the Beeville, TX station data, and I’ve visited the site personally but deferred the survey to surfacestations volunteer Juan Slayton who surveyed it about the same time. What Ecotretas is observing is the change from USHCN1 to USHCN2 adjustment algoritms. – Anthony

Guest post by Ecotretas

Great interest has developed on the Internet relating to the story about Julisa Castillo’s “Disproving Global Warming” project. It admittedly had received a NSF prize, with Al Gore in the jury. It has now been confirmed as most probably a strange hoax.

While most of the Internet is judging why would Al Gore be in this jury, or if there is such a thing as “National Science Fair” associated with the National Science Foundation (note the same initials), which both set my BS detector very high on Sunday, I was quickly on the run to find out what temperatures were like in Beeville, TX. Checking out the paper’s claims was far more interesting than being skeptic about the news…

First thing to check was for USHCN data. Quick to find it out at the GISS website, and first graph above. Looking at it, I wondered what type of station was this. I went to the surfacestations.org site, and discovered it was a reasonably well located station. But then, the temperature graph, a little more than one year old, was slightly different, as can be seen in the above second graph.

Looks like there was some tweaking going on! But discovering anything more about Beeville seemed pretty difficult. Some interesting information about the station can be found at NOAA. But what really surprised me was the graph uploaded by “Tom in Texas”, referenced in the comments section in a Watts Up With That post. It shows that adjustment data for Beeville is greater than 2ºF for the last 110 years.

While other information might help in settling all these different graphs, it seems like the real news will be about how temperatures are being dealed with in Beeville…

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89 thoughts on “The Beeville Science Fair Hoax – but look at the story the data tells

  1. “I’ve visited the site personally but deferred the survey to surfacestations volunteer Juan Slayton who surveyed it about the same time.”
    Would that it were true! I spent the night at Beeville my way north, but I didn’t do that station. I think you want to credit Wisneski. : > )

  2. I hate being a spell/grammar demon, especially when I’ve my own problems with it, but, it’s “dealt with” not “dealed with”.
    REPLY: Cut him some slack, he’s not a US citizen, he’s writing in a second language. -A

  3. Sorry, I should have added this to my previous post. See http://www.naschasefield.com/history.htm for the history of The History of NAS Chase Field, Beeville, TX:

    Chase Field was depicted in the 1960 Jeppesen Airway Manual (courtesy of Chris Kennedy) in its enlarged, jet-capable configuration, with a total of three paved runways (8,000′ Runways 13L/31R & 13R/31L, and 6,000′ Runway 17/35), as well as a number of taxiways, a large ramp, and two hangars.
    According to USN Cdr Dave Winiker (ret), “NAAS Chase Field hosted 3 of the Navy’s advanced training squadrons (VT-24,25,& 26) in the early 1960s.”

  4. I got the real U.S. Space & Rocket Center in Huntsville, Alabama using the 800 number, but it is after hours there. It would be interesting if they knew anything about this………as far as the changes, this just once again shows there is no one in this world that can with any degree of certainty state whether the earth is getting warmer or not. They’ve mucked with the temps so much, I doubt anyone can re-create a true temp reading for all of the stations they’ve jacked with.

  5. This re-inventing the past data is a common issue in Europe too where dedicated researchers are supposed to look at the archive and redraw the truth…

  6. Texas A&M – sanctum sanctorum of the blessed consensus. Home of Andrew Dessler.. Maybe someone could ask Dr. Andy what happened here. You know. For a giggle.

  7. James Sexton says:
    June 8, 2010 at 4:23 pm
    I hate being a spell/grammar demon, especially when I’ve my own problems with it, but, it’s “dealt with” not “dealed with”.
    REPLY: Cut him some slack, he’s not a US citizen, he’s writing in a second language. -A
    REPLY to the REPLY…….I was cutting slack. It was my desire to be helpful that prompted my post. It is my wish for this site and Ecotretas to be able to engage in thoughtful exchange of ideals without being encumbered by word trolls. Yes, it was my own personal sacrifice to risk appearing as one, but it was for the greater good. YW!

  8. Judy Curry said today at climate audit that we need a whole new surface temperature data set.
    ====================

  9. TomRude says:
    June 8, 2010 at 4:41 pm
    “This re-inventing the past data is a common issue in Europe too where dedicated researchers are supposed to look at the archive and redraw the truth…”
    Well, now that’s at least 3 continents we know of. As shown at this site, they’ve done it Down Under and here in North America. I haven’t seen one in Europe, but I’ll take your word for it. In the Arctic and South America, they just extrapolate. One thermometer per 1200 km! Wasn’t it Darwin that was actually cooler when they showed a significant warming trend? It was one of the Australian locations. New Zealand has their own “oops, got caught” events. I don’t think Africa ever got properly measured and neither has the Antarctic. I dunno, maybe Asia hasn’t been altered or improperly measured? But then, they mostly don’t care. China builds coal plants like its a race. India doesn’t believe Pachy and started their own climate science body. The middle east is otherwise preoccupied. Russian scientists seem to use climatologists as a source of humor. Have we heard anything from Japan since Kyoto? What’s left? It’s just us “developed” peoples that seem to twit about climate and create fictional history. Has anyone looked into why it seems to be just a few players (in terms of cultures) in the climate alarmism? It’s really giving me a complex.

  10. REPLY: Cut him some slack, he’s not a US citizen, he’s writing in a second language. -A
    Although the grammar/spelling nazis may seem to be having a go to you (and you seem very sensitive to it) in virtually all instances they are just trying to help people put a final “buff” onto the product they’re producing.
    English is a bit of a pain with its irregular verbs, similar synonyms and abhorrent apostrophes but that’s what editors normally do for writers, and they are quite an important part of the publishing process.
    REPLY: In a perfect world, I’d have time to do this. – Anthony

  11. The “adjusted data minus raw data” chart shows roughly the same slightly positive 0.25 degree adjustment from 1968 onward. Even though it is a short period, what does the trend from 1968 to the present look like? It looks like an increasing trend.

  12. kim says:
    June 8, 2010 at 5:10 pm
    “Judy Curry said today at climate audit that we need a whole new surface temperature data set.”
    She was right. Our friend Judith seems adept at politics. It would literally take a lifetime(she’s probably angling to be that one to do it) to put all the pieces back together again. We should have 2 independent sets of data……if we could only find out what we did with the original data…….:-| Sadly, the dog ate the homework of one group, and the other doesn’t know how to read a thermometer without upwardly moving the reading. Perhaps it’s the angle from which they’re looking at it.

  13. I would be interested to read Julisa’s project.I hate to see a young person put off by this dispicable act.

  14. I have a similar experience. On the NASA/GISS site, the temp data for Albany, Texas (categorized “rural”) showed a monotonous cooling trend of about 1 degC over 100 years at least two years ago, but today it looks like this:
    http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/gistemp_station.py?id=425722660020&data_set=1&num_neighbors=1
    The “adjustment” consists essentially of a 1.5 to 2-degC suppression (!) of the temp for a century ago. How can this be rationalized??

  15. I did a study for the Dallas area which I have lived in since 1975. If I had a kid in school it is simple enough to enter into a science fair.
    The site of the DFW airport was a cow pasture in 1975 and around that time an international airport and a city of around 30,000 people was built. Jet exhaust and thousands of square feet of runway and a small city have to add temperature. Contrary to what you might expect, going from a cow pasture to a small city causes more warming than going from a big city to a bigger one.
    Here is the unadjusted data from NASA
    http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/gistemp_station.py?id=425722590000&data_set=0&num_neighbors=1
    Note the run up of about 2.5 ° C between 1970 and 2009.
    Here is the adjusted data: Note there is no noticeable change.
    [The UHI effect was not corrected for.]
    http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/gistemp_station.py?id=425722590000&data_set=2&num_neighbors=1
    Here is an unadjusted plot from Hensley field which is 20 Km away.
    Note that there is no upswing after 1970. It was in a slightly more urban area both before and after 1970 and not much changed. [Too bad they stopped taking data in 1996.]
    http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/gistemp_station.py?id=425722590000&data_set=2&num_neighbors=1
    The meaning of these graphs is that there is a substantial UHI effect in the DFW temperature record which hasn’t been adjusted out.
    Does that mean that all UHI everywhere hasn’t been adjusted out ?
    No but it makes me suspicious.
    To do your own area go to:
    http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/station_data/
    Select adjusted or unadjusted
    Click on your location on the map.
    Please share what you find with us.

  16. kim (5:10pm):
    Ask Judith Curry if she’s willing to wait, say, 100 years for that “new” data set to be obtained? What we really need is for AGWers to stop “adjusting”–MESSING WITH–the existing station data that covers the 20th century and stop pretending that most stations have remained in unchanged environments throughout that time. It’s the arbitrary adjustments and the indiscriminate use of UHI-corrupted records that constitute the real hoax of the climate story. It surpasses the Beeville girl’s phony “prize” by many orders of magnitude in its significance.

  17. sky @ 6:06
    I agree, but read Judy’s entry now at the tail end of the lost glacier data thread. She says no original data has been lost and that two separate efforts are underway to recreate HadCru. So, we needn’t wait a century for better data.
    =================

  18. (1) The USA has maintained many missile silos for many years. Each is equipped with temperature recording devices. Plausibly, they have not had site changes.
    It would be scientific to compare the USA military record with the other USA compendiums. Why are the military scientists keeping such a low profile?
    (2) Some international airline pilots report that temperatures measured by their instruments when the aircraft are on the ground, differ from the national met service advice. Given that so many high class stations are now at airports, this discrepancy needs examination. One pilot has reported verbally “Australia is consistently far worse than Zambia”.
    Besides, the difference can be a safety factor for aviation. It was was not, there would be no need to measure it.

  19. Consider that her parents claim to have entered her project in this `national science fair’ and sent it on to the `NSF’ after it didn’t do well in the local contest. So just how is a hoaxer supposed to have induced her parents to do that? How would a hoaxer contact them and supply them with false information about this `National Science Fair’. And why! Why go to all the bother – a letter – a plaque – a cup! It is baroque to imagine that some third party did this for political reasons to make a point (what point?) in the climate debate.
    There is a much more likely explanation, and that is that one of the parents did it. Motive? Perhaps they just wanted to make their daughter feel special after her project didn’t do well at the local science fair. Or perhaps one of the parents has strong opinions about climate themselves and helped the child with the project. Perhaps that parent then thought the project hadn’t been fairly evaluated.
    I can see why one of the parents or perhaps a close relative might have chosen to do this. Darned if I can see why anyone else would or even could. It would require the resources of something like a spy agency to set this up and deceive the family in this way.
    Unfortunately because of the charged nature of the climate debate this sad little fiasco now finds itself the focus of international media scrutiny. Poor girl. She doesn’t deserve that. She is the one person in all this whose innocence, in my opinion, is beyond doubt.

  20. Kim said:

    Judy Curry said today at climate audit that we need a whole new surface temperature data set.

    Can you link to that Kim? Thanks

  21. Alan Cheetham says:
    June 8, 2010 at 6:20 pm
    Similar patterns exist at other locations worldwide. Something fundamental seems to have happened about 1950. Do you have a favoured explanation for it? I tend to relate it to the end of WWII with the increased number of airfields and the growth of aviation in general, affecting the number of airport weather stations quite dramatically, plus scrutiny of their past practices (like type of screen, daily observation time of day). Plus transition of control from military to civvy personnel. This is but a guess.

  22. @Rutter
    “…interesting trend.”
    See the recent post from Dr. Spencer.
    No wonder Algore thought it was millions of degrees below the surface of the earth. If every time the temperature goes up it’s anthropogenic and down it’s natural variation, it’ll soon be millions of degrees on the surface, too!

  23. “To do your own area go to:”
    I would if I could netdr. When I click on Florida on the map, I get stations in Mexico.

  24. TomRude says: June 8, 2010 at 4:41 pm “This re-inventing the past data is a common issue in Europe . . .”
    Didn’t the CRU destroy all original data, leaving only the processed data available for reference?

  25. kim says:
    June 8, 2010 at 6:30 pm
    sky @ 6:06
    “I agree, but read Judy’s entry now at the tail end of the lost glacier data thread. She says no original data has been lost and that two separate efforts are underway to recreate HadCru. So, we needn’t wait a century for better data.”
    Sigh,
    Kim, if the original data is preserved, then there isn’t much to do. Have Judith send it to me and I’ll post it here and at Climate Audit. Well, it doesn’t have to be me, there are more people here and there (at Climate Audit) that are more than capable of putting the data into a coherent format. The last thing we need is someone “recreating” data to fit their views. Just Google Ms. Judith to see her views. Perhaps she’s changed her point of view, we all do from time to time, but I’ll remain skeptical until I see raw data.

  26. Alan Cheetham says:
    June 8, 2010 at 6:20 pm
    NOAA GHCN database:
    Beeville Chase/NAAS and Beevilee 5NE unadjusted
    Beeville 5NE Unadjusted and Adjusted
    —…—
    Thank you!
    Maybe them there rural cowboys in the Texas farm and ranch country back before 1950 had to be “uncorrected” by Hansen’s GISS for NOT having an Urban Heat Island?

  27. speaking of hoaxes, this is all from the philippines’ media today:
    Climate change ‘a moral issue’ – ex-US vice president Al Gore
    He even quoted from the Bible, saying, “Love thy neighbor.” Gore, who was once congressman of Tennessee in America’s so-called Bible Belt, quoted from the Good Book several times, even though he noted that he was not proselytizing.
    “If we are doing harm to someone who’s [present] here, then we would stop,” Gore said. “If we do mortal harm on others [who’s] not here, that’s a moral issue as well.”
    He said that people today would have to answer to future generations, especially given overwhelming evidence that business as usual has contributed to rising carbon dioxide emissions that were now at alarming levels. The Nobel Prize winner added that other pieces of evidence on global warming include more severe storms, drought in others because of increased evaporation caused by warmer temperatures, melting polar ice caps and other glaciers also resulting in raising levels, and potentially cataclysmic events…
    Gore said that it was not yet too late to reverse the harmful effects of climate change, citing the opinion of scientists whom he trusts.
    If God has given the people the technology to destroy the Earth, “surely we can do something,” he explained…
    The polar ice caps—a disturbing large part has already melted—can come back, Gore added. But if people continue not doing enough, climate change will eventually be irreversible, he explained…..
    http://www.manilatimes.net/index.php/component/content/article/42-rokstories/19120-climate-change-a-moral-issue–ex-us-vice-president-al-gore
    Gore draws crowds to climate change lecture
    He said that aside from the natural cycle of melting ice caps, statistics show that climate change does not move in a linear direction.
    Gore cited as proof the sudden spikes in temperatures in the last few years. He even warned that the Philippines is not spared from the disasters made worse by climate change. Gore said storms “Ondoy” and “Pepeng” are some of the examples…
    http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/06/09/10/gore-draws-crowds-climate-change-lecture
    Climate crusader gets warm welcome
    Though basically weaving the same urgent cautionary tale and messages of hope, about a third of Gore’s almost two-hour presentation presented material not found in the 2006 documentary.
    These included images and references as fresh as May this year, like that on the Gulf of Mexico oil spill and massive, unprecedented floodings in urban America and Asia….
    “Here in the Philippines you had a series of storms,” Gore said, adding that he purposely did not include more images since they may be too painful to bear for his local audience…
    For the next two hours, Gore held the SMX viewers in rapt attention with images and charts hammering down apocalyptic warnings: ancient glaciers receding if not totally vanishing in a matter of decades, lakes and rivers drying up, stronger storms, droughts in areas where there used to be none, and flooding in towns where residents were too complacent to think about getting a “flood insurance.”
    The melting polar ice caps, if not slowed down, will raise sea levels to the point where “the map of the world will have to be redrawn,” he said.
    On a subtler but still ominous scale, global warming and resulting “shifts in the seasons” have led to the resurgence of diseases that were once declared under control, and the emergence of new viruses, as in the case of SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome).
    “I was told by an agricultural expert in the Philippines that it has become more difficult here to predict when to plant,” Gore added…
    http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/inquirerheadlines/nation/view/20100609-274647/Climate-crusader-gets-warm-welcome

  28. latitude says:
    June 8, 2010 at 6:53 pm
    “To do your own area go to:”
    “I would if I could netdr. When I click on Florida on the map, I get stations in Mexico.”
    lmao! latitude and Florida has been….extrapolated!!!! And I thought that technique was just for the Arctic and South America!! (Well, other parts of Cali too)
    Dude! Sorry to hear about your extrapolation. Maybe one day when Florida grows up, they can have a temp all their own!

  29. netdr says: …….. June 8, 2010 at 6:05 pm ……
    Re the Albany, Texas temp data I mentioned above, search for the “raw GHCN data + USHCN corrections” does not yield the graph I used to see two years ago, which exhibited a very monotonous 1-degC cooling trend from 1892 to 2007. The current graph is a tilted hockey stick, being in no way similar to the good old one. Does this mean that the graph I was familiar with two years ago was “raw GHCN data” before “USHCN corrections”, and is no more searcheable ??

  30. Stepping aside frm the “is it a hoax or not?” question, is the DATA in the attached graphic correct?
    That is, is the only warming noted in Beeville’s unadjusted data from station moves and and instrument changes?

  31. Still boggles the mind that Hansen, et al, consider “The Greatest Generation” to have been too stupid to read a thermometer.

  32. James Sexton says:
    To do your own area go to:”
    I would if I could netdr. When I click on Florida on the map, I get stations in Mexico.
    **************
    Exactly where you click on the map matters.
    I clicked on Jacksonville [approximately] and got OCALA and JacksonvilleNAS etc.
    Play around with it a little it is easy to use.
    Actually to be honest I got the idea from a kid’s science fair project and liked it.
    How is that for full disclosure ?
    To do your own area go to:
    http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/station_data/
    Select adjusted or unadjusted
    Click on your location on the map. [It is a little delicate so be as precise as you can]
    Please share what you find with us.
    Oh yes I borrowed the information on small cities UHI from Dr Spencer. It makes sense when you think about it.

  33. pat says:
    June 8, 2010 at 7:37 pm
    “speaking of hoaxes, this is all from the philippines’ media today:
    Climate change ‘a moral issue’ – ex-US vice president Al Gore
    He even quoted from the Bible, saying, “Love thy neighbor.”
    He said that people today would have to answer to future generations, especially given overwhelming evidence …”
    If he’d actually read the Bible, then he’d know future generations isn’t to whom we answer.

  34. netdr says:
    June 8, 2010 at 8:11 pm
    James Sexton says:
    Apparently, I gave a poor attempt at humor. I still think it was a hoot, but obviously lost on everyone else. Swing and a miss.

  35. REPLY: Cut him some slack, he’s not a US citizen, he’s writing in a second language. -A
    I am learning Spanish, and I can tell you the difference in grammar style is pretty marked, just as a side note. English must be a pain to learn as a second language.

  36. pat (June 8, 2010 at 7:37 pm)…
    Thanks for that information. I had been wondering where Gore had got to. The international crusader sure seems to be laying it on thick! Unfortunately a lot of people in the Philippines will take his word as gospel.

  37. James Sexton says:
    June 8, 2010 at 4:39 pm
    I got the real U.S. Space & Rocket Center in Huntsville, Alabama using the 800 number, but it is after hours there.

    The initforthegold link already says that Space Camp didn’t get anything from the NSF.

  38. AnonyMoose says:
    June 8, 2010 at 8:55 pm
    …..
    ” The initforthegold link already says that Space Camp didn’t get anything from the NSF.”
    Yeh, I saw what they said. I’m not familiar with initforthegold people. So, I’ll see for myself or until I see what someone I trust says. I’m sure they’re fine people, I’m just not familiar with them. I tend to agree with Ian H June 8, 2010 at 6:45 pm but, I’m not prepared to accuse anybody of anything. As pointed out in the post, there are innocent people effected. One should walk gingerly in this regard until all the facts are known.

  39. Regarding references to NASA/GISS and GHCN temperature records in general, according to their web documentation, even the “raw” data has been somewhat adjusted. It’s been a while since I thoroughly read the documents, so I don’t remember exactly what the adjustments are, but the “raw” data is minimally adjusted.
    The only truly raw web data is the USHCN raw available at:
    ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ushcn/v2/monthly/
    Read the readme.txt for an explanation of what the files contain, and the file formats.
    I’ve written some routines to graph data from these files, and find the truly raw data a good starting point for sanity checks of US temperatures. I haven’t found any equivalent files available for GHCN data.

  40. Can we trust tinypic.com with our archived gifs, etc.? Lots of people have agendas. They might invite Dr. Hansen to come in a doctor our data.
    REPLY: Thats just silly, way off the scale, non issue -A

  41. REPLY: Cut him some slack, he’s not a US citizen, he’s writing in a second language. -A
    I could tell by his name, Ecotretas, which isn’t commonly encountered in English, unlike the names Billy, Bob, or Billy Bob.

  42. latitude says: “To do your own area go to…” I would if I could netdr. When I click on Florida on the map, I get stations in Mexico.
    Obviously Florida is ‘teleconnected’ to Mexico.

  43. From: James Sexton on June 8, 2010 at 9:23 pm

    Yeh, I saw what they said. I’m not familiar with initforthegold people. So, I’ll see for myself or until I see what someone I trust says. I’m sure they’re fine people, I’m just not familiar with them. (…)

    I’ve found myself on that site a few times, following Googled links. If you don’t mind seeing climate skeptics frequently called the “d” word, said usage being far from discouraged and arguably encouraged, perhaps even think they have certainly earned the epithet, then perhaps you will indeed find it a fine site with fine people. 😉

  44. Duh. Are these people delusional? Or simply idiots? And they call themselves “scientists”? Yes the world has warmed. Likely exaggerated a bit. But it has been warmer. And my fire place, in the tropics, tells me it has been cooling for about a year. Get over it.

  45. Z says:
    June 8, 2010 at 5:25 pm
    “REPLY: Cut him some slack, he’s not a US citizen, he’s writing in a second language. -A
    “Although the grammar/spelling nazis may seem to be having a go to you (and you seem very sensitive to it) in virtually all instances they are just trying to help people put a final “buff” onto the product they’re producing.
    “English is a bit of a pain with its irregular verbs, similar synonyms and abhorrent apostrophes but that’s what editors normally do for writers, and they are quite an important part of the publishing process.
    “REPLY: In a perfect world, I’d have time to do this. – Anthony”
    ____________
    I agree with Z. In the time it took to justify the error, and then to explain why it wasn’t fixed, it could have been fixed more than once. It would have taken only a few seconds. I’m familiar with WordPress and its editing function.
    If one is going to publish an article, doesn’t it make sense to proof it first? Even in an imperfect world?

  46. tokyoboy says:June 8, 2010 at 7:40 pm
    netdr says: …….. June 8, 2010 at 6:05 pm ……
    Re the Albany, Texas temp data I mentioned above, search for the “raw GHCN data + USHCN corrections” does not yield the graph I used to see two years ago, which exhibited a very monotonous 1-degC cooling trend from 1892 to 2007. The current graph is a tilted hockey stick, being in no way similar to the good old one. Does this mean that the graph I was familiar with two years ago was “raw GHCN data” before “USHCN corrections”, and is no more searcheable ??

    I’m afraid so, tokyoboy. What you get served up as “raw” data at
    http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/station_data/
    looks like USHCN Version 2 data, which has been homogenized, pasteurized, blendered, rendered, and comes out pretty close to the old fictionalized GISS Homogenized data.
    I’ve heard the real raw data is still available somewhere, but I don’t know where one goes to get a charted version. I have comparison charts for Illinois, real raw versus Version 2 adjusted “raw” data. 81k downloads so far. I have Iowa and Wisconsin, too.
    It’s a real powerless feeling you get when you see them pulling something like this off and there’s nothing you can do about it.

  47. netdr: June 8, 2010 at 8:11 pm
    To do your own area go to:
    http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/station_data/
    Select adjusted or unadjusted
    Please share what you find with us.

    Done. Some sample cruising in my AO (Iraq) turned up something interesting — most of the locations claiming continuous records up to 1990 or beyond actually end at 1980, and there are some odd discrepancies. For instance, H-4, which is a military base about fifty feet from the middle of nowhere actually has a continuous record from 1961 to 2010
    H-4 ‘Irwaishe 32.5 N 38.2 E 624402500001 rural area 1961 – 2010
    http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/gistemp_station.py?id=624402500001&data_set=1&num_neighbors=1
    but Baghdad has a continuous record running from 1888, which ends in 1980, rather than the claimed 1990 —
    http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/gistemp_station.py?id=209406500000&data_set=1&num_neighbors=1
    Arak claims recordings from 1971 to 2010, but there’s a 29-year gap (missing data) between 1980 and 2009.
    Arak 34.1 N 49.4 E 208407690000 115,000 1971 – 2010
    http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/gistemp_station.py?id=208407690000&data_set=1&num_neighbors=1
    Slightly OT, but the lizards here are doing just fine and we’ve had a bumper crop of Bufo surdus — cute li’l things.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Earless_Toad

  48. @lynn
    As I understood Cheifio, the ‘raw’ data have already been ‘QC’ed .
    The recent data seemed more likely to have large negative points suppressed?
    At least, the recent short records have reduced ‘scatter’ with fewer thermometers, than the older records with more thermometers…
    Usually having more sources in the composite makes for less ‘noisy’ aggregate.
    So, yes, you probably pointed to the most ‘raw’ available data, but it may already ‘value added’ data…
    And the QC processes are hidden from view, not even reported in ‘the litrachure’…
    No?
    RR
    RR

  49. James Sexton says:
    [–snip–] What’s left? It’s just us “developed” peoples that seem to twit about climate and create fictional history. Has anyone looked into why it seems to be just a few players (in terms of cultures) in the climate alarmism? It’s really giving me a complex.
    Well, ya see? It’s as this: Most ‘westerners’ have had their intelligence educated out of them by the so-called ‘public schools.’
    I should not have to ‘splain further!

  50. The above comments (and not the first ) on the use of English show the arrogance and deep ignorance of the commentators, I was born in Ulan Bator , went to school and University in Ulan Bator and if any person tried to speak or write in my language the entire population would show respect even if they could not decipher or understand, the commentators of English grammar and spelling should go visit Gavin were they will be appreciated, after all he is renowned for the excellence of his site !

  51. “James Sexton says:
    June 8, 2010 at 7:37 pm
    lmao! latitude and Florida has been….extrapolated!!!!”
    LOL Si Senor!

  52. kim says:
    June 8, 2010 at 5:10 pm

    Judy Curry said today at climate audit that we need a whole new surface temperature data set.

    What we need is a copy of all the original readings.
    Is this still available?
    If not, I guess there’s no evidence for anything.
    In a civil or criminal matter, all would be tossed out and case is dismissed.
    We can then rebuild a temperature database, properly sited and monitored stations, capable of determining UHI effects, with multiple copies kept throughout world.
    Then we can sit around for about thirty years and discuss long term temperature changes. At that point and decision can be made regarding AGW.

  53. Doug in Seattle @ 7:52 PM
    That’s a fine link, too, but the one I meant is the one that Graeme W placed @ 7:27PM. She is just a bit more explicit about the need for a new surface temperature data set. That whole glacier thread at climateaudit is great, and it looks like real work got done. Lonnie Thompson has certainly been challenged, and by a paid up member of the climate science community, to archive his data.
    ======================

  54. I live in North Carolina and did a quick look at my state. It is VERY interesting.
    There is nothing closer to the mountains than Chapel Hill which is just west of Raleigh. All the areas with longitudes further west are also further south and that puts them on the seacoast. Chapel Hill is on the plains. Seems the mountain areas are no longer part of the record, imagine that.
    Wunderground
    I also found that at Wunderground the Moncure NC station is no longer available, it flips you to the new Sanford NC airport. It was available the last time I looked. Asheville NC is the big city in the mountains, home of the Biltmore Estate (1895) Its weather station now only goes back to 2005 at the AIRPORT of course. The site also directs you to the “nearby” (80 miles) city of Greenville (downtown) which only goes back to 1970. That site has been declared “unofficial” The “official” station is now the Greenville/Spartanburg, South Carolina (Airport)
    Here is a quick look at the only city & close by airport listed for North Carolina. The city is on the North Carolina/Virgina border and right on the ocean. Take a look at the city vs the airport! Norfolk City and Norfolk International Airport
    The Raleigh North Carolina area is in the piedmont area of North Carolina. It is far from both the mountains and the sea coast. Here is an Elevation map and North Carolina map of cities
    North to south through the middle of the state
    North – Raleigh NC
    Middle – Fayetteville NC
    South – Lumberton NC
    Coastal Cities:
    North – Elisabeth City
    South – Wilmington NC
    Rural
    North – Louisburg
    South – Southport
    Here is the raw 1856 to current Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
    Amazing how the temperatures follow the Atlantic ocean oscillation as long as the weather station is not sitting at an airport isn’t it?

  55. One degree, two degrees….what’s the difference? Beeville’s hot. Man, it’s hot. It’s like Africa hot. Tarzan couldn’t take this kind of hot.

  56. “James Sexton says:
    June 8, 2010 at 4:23 pm
    I hate being a spell/grammar demon, especially when I’ve my own problems with it, but, it’s “dealt with” not “dealed with”.
    REPLY: Cut him some slack, he’s not a US citizen, he’s writing in a second language. -A”
    I agree to your reply Anthony, English is not an easy language to master, even for English people like myself. For my wife, it is her 4th language, even her “native tongue” is her second language. And the English (Not like the “proper English English” as in the Austin Powers movies – a hoot IMO) as we know today is thanks to a bunch of…wait for it…politicians!
    Parle vous Francais? Non! Jus sui Anglais!
    But yes, this is a hoax, but not unusual for this crowd.

  57. “Still boggles the mind that Hansen, et al, consider “The Greatest Generation” to have been too stupid to read a thermometer.”
    It is an odd phenomenon – the younger generations always think that their new ways of doing things are far superior to the older way of doing things to the point that they invalidate any work done prior to theirs. That advances in science somehow correlate to advances in our brains. When the fact is that the same ingenuity that went into creating the printing press went into creating the computer. The opposite phenomenon which portrays the older generation as far more wise and moral than the next generations will ever be is just as pervasive though. I love hearing the “back in my day” speeches. I like to point out that my dad got his first drunk and disorderly conduct at age 12 to the people who like to say that kids today are worse than they once were. Your sample size of 2 parents does not have a lot of power (just as mine does not) for predicting the population.

  58. Here’s a thought; this is a terrible way of bringing up a data quality issue.
    Whatever the case as it relates to Beeville and the USHCN data, this little girl has (apparently) been used as a pawn or a dupe, possibly for the purpose of bringing these station adjustments to light.
    I think it’s best to drop it completely until such time someone with some time, experience and a deeper knowledge of the subject can produce a well documented analysis of the Beeville record.
    To hitch this topic to the science fair hoax is to perpetuate and legitimize what is, at it’s base, a very cruel prank on a little girl who should not be dragged into this at all.
    Her parents ought to have investigated this in more detail before allowing the press to publish the story. Hopefully they aren’t duplicitous in the hoax, but given the state of the world today, that would indeed fit the template.
    Shame on everyone for keeping this out there, after knowing full well it was a hoax.

  59. Paul says:
    June 9, 2010 at 9:08 am
    Though, as time passed away, J.H. is as old as many retirees here, so he is too beginning to expect those “trains” that will take us all in a trip of no return.
    Jump up buddy!

  60. Just posted more information at my blog regarding Beeville: http://ecotretas.blogspot.com/2010/06/more-about-beeville.html
    The most interesting part is that a linear trendline for the raw monthly data shows that temperatures have been going down in the last 113 years!!!
    And just look at the hottest months:
    1951/8 888
    2009/7 880
    1998/7 879
    1952/8 878
    2009/8 877
    1953/7 876
    1902/8 875
    1998/6 872
    1897/7 871
    1915/7 871
    1980/7 871
    1914/7 869
    1915/8 869
    1916/6 869
    1938/7 869
    1951/7 869
    1958/8 869
    1911/8 868
    1954/8 867
    1927/8 866
    Only four months in the Top20 months can be considered recent!
    Might Julisa Castillo deserve a prize, after-all?
    Ecotretas

  61. REPLY: Thats just silly, way off the scale, non issue -A
    It was silly when I said it. But, who’d have thought supposed intellectuals would be calling for imprisonment of those who don’t go along with the consensus or suggesting democracy be scrapped in favor of more authoritarian forms of government to better respond to the “crisis”?
    Who’d have thought mainstream scientists could openly alter data to fit their theories and the scientific community not see the slightest problem with such behavior?
    We’re not there yet but a day may come when truth can not be stored on any web server; or, for that matter, even on our own personal computers, and be expected not to have been improved upon next time we call it up.

  62. Geoff Sherrington says:
    June 8, 2010 at 6:39 pm
    “Some international airline pilots report that temperatures measured by their instruments when the aircraft are on the ground, differ from the national met service advice. Given that so many high class stations are now at airports, this discrepancy needs examination. One pilot has reported verbally “Australia is consistently far worse than Zambia”. ”
    This comment gave me pause for thought. I know Zambia well; I lived there when it was known as Northern Rhodesia and for quite some time after Independence in 1964. My Mother still lives there, in Luanshya.
    The “Wapamwamba”, the self-appointed upper classes might be tainted with corruption (or spontaneous privatisation as the Zambians call it) but there is an army of dedicated civil servants who, through even the most trying of times, have diligently carried out their duties. I have seen the Local Government functionaries recording the data which they have been employed to record in large, old fashioned ledgers, faithfully discharging the duties for which they are being paid. Their pay might be an intermittent pittance and their uniforms might be ragged but their records are kept with diligence.
    Zambia has a large number of local Government Offices (known as Bomas) where a weather station was a usual accoutrement to the buildings and, from what I can remember the Stevenson Screen and rain gauge were usually very well sited. The rural Bomas have not been surrounded by urban developments, the total number of airports in Zambia has not increased by very much, if at all, and almost all of them are serviced by small aircraft once or twice a day. There must be some valuable records held in a number of places in Zambia, probably pre-dating WWII in some cases. The Agricultural Station at Mount Makulu and the Game Department Offices at Chilanga (both south of Lusaka, the capital) have records dating back to the early Fifties to my knowledge.
    I wonder if some totally untouched, certifiably “unadjusted” temperature and rainfall data might be obtained from such an obscure source?
    I shall endeavour to find out.
    Would such an endeavour be worthwhile, do the WUWTers consider?

  63. In 1949, the first commercial jet powered aircraft was introduced into service, but it wasn’t until 1958 that commercial jet aircraft service began to be widespread. Since Jet engines are effectively huge blowtorches, I would expect that temperatures at airports went up significantly with the transition from piston powered aircraft to jet powered aircraft. Was an adult back then, watched it happen. Compared with piston engines, jet engines put out very large volumes of very hot exaust.
    I was in the USAF 1954 to 1958 . . . Offut AFB, and the transition began much earlier in the military. The differences in air temperature at Air Force bases were quite noticible . . . without benefit of a thermometer.

  64. That is “exhaust”, of course. Would be really nice if this site had a preview function. Still, great site.

  65. kim and James Sexton:
    The crux of the issue is not the preservation of the original data or the recreation of the HADCRUT Index, but of the bias introduced into the data by environmental or instrument changes at the stations in the course of the ENTIRE century. After all, all of the station data comes from population centers of some kind, not from pristine natural meadows. Nobody has adressed that inherent bias in a credible way.

  66. Stephen Brown (1:54pm):
    ANY reliable raw data from ANYWHERE in the heart of Africa would be very welcome. It’s amazing how little is available for that region via GHCN, and how incompatible the records at Kinshasa and Brazaville–opposite one another on the Congo River–prove to be.

  67. Mark Bowlin says:
    June 9, 2010 at 6:40 am
    One degree, two degrees….what’s the difference? Beeville’s hot. Man, it’s hot. It’s like Africa hot. Tarzan couldn’t take this kind of hot.
    Yes, but, Mark: ‘Hot’ is a relative term.
    Some people I know say that Texas is ‘hotter than hell’ in the summer, and then turn right around and say that it’s ‘colder than hell’ in the winter!
    Gosh, I don’t know what to think anymore!

  68. Bob Kutz says:
    June 9, 2010 at 9:30 am
    Here’s a thought; this is a terrible way of bringing up a data quality issue.
    So in other words, Bob, just sweep it under the carpet and forget the inconvenient truth of things?
    Pay no attention to the machinating ‘scientists’ behind the curtain?

  69. Stephen Brown says:
    June 9, 2010 at 1:54 pm
    [–snip–]
    I wonder if some totally untouched, certifiably “unadjusted” temperature and rainfall data might be obtained from such an obscure source?
    I shall endeavour to find out.
    Would such an endeavour be worthwhile, do the WUWTers consider?

    I would suggest with all due haste, less the warmist readers who monitor this site take action to ‘eradicate’ any records which would tend to negate their propaganda and religion!
    Official records have a strange way of ‘disappearing’ once the matters of money and power suddenly evince themselves.

  70. LarryOldtimer says:
    June 9, 2010 at 2:36 pm
    In 1949, the first commercial jet powered aircraft was introduced into service, but it wasn’t until 1958 that commercial jet aircraft service began to be widespread. Since Jet engines are effectively huge blowtorches, I would expect that temperatures at airports went up significantly with the transition from piston powered aircraft to jet powered aircraft. Was an adult back then, watched it happen. Compared with piston engines, jet engines put out very large volumes of very hot exaust.
    I was in the USAF 1954 to 1958 . . . Offut AFB, and the transition began much earlier in the military. The differences in air temperature at Air Force bases were quite noticible . . . without benefit of a thermometer.

    That’s an interesting thought, but I used to work at the Boeing Everett plant, located at Paine Field, just south of Everett, Washington.
    I never noted any accumulation of heat as a result of aircraft operations, even in the haydays of the late 80’s and early 90’s, when 747 series aircraft were taking off and landing daily.
    747’s have 4 very large engines and produce significant heat at full thrust.
    Maybe it was the still air at your location. In Everett, the air is almost always moving.
    Usually it just blew a lot, but it sucked quite a bit too …
    ;o)

  71. Humans are well adapted, and evolved to handle hot conditions as theis NSF funded research shows.
    -Jay
    Heat drives human evolution
    Some Like it Hot: The Scorching Site of Human Evolution
    http://www.scientificcomputing.com/news-DS-Some-Like-it-Hot-The-Scorching-Site-of-Human-Evolution-060910.aspx
    Courtesy of Coyau
    If you think summer in your hometown is hot, consider it fortunate that you don’t live in the Turkana Basin of Kenya, where the average daily temperature has reached the mid-90s or higher, year-round, for the past 4 million years. The need to stay cool in that cradle of human evolution may relate, at least in part, to why pre-humans learned to walk upright, lost the fur that covered the bodies of their predecessors and became able to sweat more, Johns Hopkins University earth scientist Benjamin Passey said.
    “The ‘take home’ message of our study,” said Passey, whose report appears in the online early edition of Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, “is that this region, which is one of the key places where fossils have been found documenting human evolution, has been a really hot place for a really long time, even during the period between 3 million years ago and now when the ice ages began and the global climate became cooler.”
    Passey, an assistant professor in the Morton K. Blaustein Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences at the university’s Zanvyl Krieger School of Arts and Sciences, says that conclusion lends support to the so-called “thermal hypothesis” of human evolution. The hypothesis states that our pre-human ancestors gained an evolutionary advantage in walking upright because doing so was cooler (when it is sunny, the near-surface air is warmer than air a few feet above the ground) and exposed their body mass to less sunlight than did crawling on all fours. The loss of body hair (fur) and the ability to regulate body temperature through perspiration would have been other adaptations helpful for living in a warm climate, according to the hypothesis.
    “In order to figure out if (the thermal hypothesis) is possibly true or not, we have to know whether it was actually hot when and where these beings were evolving,” he said. “If it was hot, then that hypothesis is credible. If it was not, then we can throw out the hypothesis.”
    Evaluating whether the ancient Turkana Basin climate was, in fact, the same scorching place it is today has been difficult up until now because there are very few direct ways of determining ancient temperature. Efforts to get a handle on temperatures 4 million years ago through analysis of fossil pollen, wood and mammals were only somewhat successful, as they reveal more about plants and rainfall and less about temperature, Passey said.
    Passey, however, previously was part of a team at the California Institute of Technology that developed a geochemical approach to the “temperature problem.” The method involves determining the temperatures of carbonate minerals that form naturally in soil (including a sedimentary rock called “caliche” and hard pan, which is a dense layer of soil, usually found below the uppermost topsoil layer) by examining “clumps” of rare isotopes. (Isotopes are atoms of the same element that have different masses due to differences in the number of neutrons they contain.)
    In the case of soil carbonates common in the Turkana Basin, the amount of rare carbon-13 bonded directly to rare oxygen-18 provides a record of the temperature during the initial formation of the mineral. It told the team that soil carbonates there formed at average soil temperatures between 86 and 95 degrees Fahrenheit, leading to the conclusion that average daytime air temperatures were even higher. In other words, it was hot way back then in what is now northeastern Kenya.
    “We already have evidence that habitats in ancient East Africa were becoming more open, which is also hypothetically part of the scenario for the development of bipedalism and other human evolution, but now we have evidence that it was hot,” Passey said. “Thus, we can say that the ‘thermal hypothesis’ is credible.”
    This research was supported by the National Science Foundation and the Camille & Henry Dreyfus Foundation.

  72. REPLY: In a perfect world, I’d have time to do this. – Anthony
    But it isn’t a perfect world and so, many corrections must be done after the fact.
    If a spelling/grammar nazi suggests a correction (and it’s a valid one), why don’t you make the correction, and replace the entire comment with a “Thanks for the suggestion.” message? That way the error isn’t flagged up for everyone else to tut at, the initial post is better, the ad-hoc “editor” has achieved something – and everyone walks away happy.

  73. Gore quoting the Bible: you don’t have to read very far to get to the part where God promises that he will not kill us all off again by a massive flood.

  74. MeToo says:
    June 11, 2010 at 9:15 am
    Gore quoting the Bible: you don’t have to read very far to get to the part where God promises that he will not kill us all off again by a massive flood.
    Albert Gore junior loves money and power more than he loves life itself. And him quoting the Holy Bible? That’s a laugh!
    It’s been said that ‘Patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel.’
    Well, let me take that just a step further and say: An appeal to the Almighty in the name of personal gain is the epitome of charlatanism.
    I’m just surprised that it took his wife so long to discover just that. Or maybe it’s just that she finally faced the truth of matters …

  75. Z says:
    June 10, 2010 at 1:22 pm
    REPLY: In a perfect world, I’d have time to do this. – Anthony
    But it isn’t a perfect world and so, many corrections must be done after the fact.
    If a spelling/grammar nazi suggests a correction (and it’s a valid one), why don’t you make the correction, and replace the entire comment with a “Thanks for the suggestion.” message? That way the error isn’t flagged up for everyone else to tut at, the initial post is better, the ad-hoc “editor” has achieved something – and everyone walks away happy.

    I’ve made a similar suggestion, to which the response was that he didn’t want to mess with the author’s work without his permission. I didn’t respond, but if I had I would have said that revising an article’s appearance on this site isn’t messing with the author’s work (his original); that correcting a flat-wrong error isn’t “messing”; and that authors routinely submit to copy-editing in other venues, so why not here?

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