AGW=dead lizards? Maybe it's not the heat, but the handbags and herpetology aficionados?

I covered this story Mid May on WUWT.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/05/13/now-its-lizards-going-extinct-due-to-climate-change/

An email today asking if this is real science or just hype prompted me to do some research. First, below, the tragic story from the lizard specialist at BYU, whose rediscovery of some old field notes apparently was enough to touch off a firestorm of press coverage. My rebuttal, with citations, follows. – Anthony

BYU prof co-authors Science paper showing climate-induced lizard decline

Lizard researcher dusts off 30-year-old field notes that formed foundation of the study (note these links to news stories are provided by BYU in their press release, they seem quite happy to have the coverage -A)

PROVO, Utah – When Brigham Young University biology professor Jack Sites spent summers in the late 1970s collecting lizards in Mexico, he had no idea his field notes would one day help form the foundation for a worldwide study that attributes local lizard extinctions to climate change.

Sites is the senior author on the paper published in this week’s issue of Science. Led by Barry Sinervo, professor of ecology and evolutionary biology at the University of California, Santa Cruz, the study reports a global pattern of lizard die-offs in habitats unchanged except for rising temperatures.

The researchers surveyed lizard populations, studied the effects of rising temperatures on lizards, and used their findings to develop a predictive model of extinction risk. Their model accurately predicted specific locations on five continents (North and South America, Europe, Africa, and Australia) where previously studied lizard populations have already gone locally extinct. According to the model, if current trends continue, 20 percent of lizard species could go extinct by 2080.

The disappearance of lizard populations is likely to have repercussions up and down the food chain. Lizards are important prey for many birds, snakes, and other animals, and they are important predators of insects.

The study began when Sinervo noticed local lizard extinctions, one of which was among the lizards studied by Sites between 1977 and 1991.

“I had provided a baseline data set with precise localities where the lizards were common,” Sites explained. “But Mexican ecologists were going back every few years, and pretty soon the lizards were hard to find, and then they weren’t seeing any. These are protected areas, so the habitat’s still there. So you start to think there is something else going on.”

Using Sites’ field notes for comparison, Sinervo and collaborators resurveyed 48 species of spiny lizards (Sceloporus) at 200 sites in Mexico where the lizards had been studied between 1975 and 1995. They found that 12 percent of the local populations had gone extinct.

They later connected the lizards’ decline to climate records and studied the effect of rising temperatures on lizard physiology and behavior. For example, cold-blooded lizards can’t forage for food when their bodies get too hot – they must seek shade because they can’t regulate their own temperature. The researchers found that the hours per day when the temperature allowed foraging dropped significantly.

Sites said that when the temperature increase hits during a critical month of the reproductive cycle, the lizards don’t get enough energy resources to support a clutch of eggs or embryos.

“The heat doesn’t kill them, they just don’t reproduce,” said Sites, who earned BYU’s highest honor for faculty, the Maeser Distinguished Faculty Award, in 2002. “It doesn’t take too much of that and the population starts to crash.”

But for the phenomenon to be linked to climate change, the pattern would need to be seen globally. Sites connected Sinervo with researchers in Chile and Argentina, where Sites has been working for a decade. Sinervo also worked with researchers who documented lizard declines in Africa, Australia, and Europe.

“To get this kind of pattern, on five continents in 34 different groups of lizards, that’s not random, that’s a correlated response to something big,” Sites said, adding that the effect appears to be happening too fast for the lizards to adapt.

Sites finds no joy in being part of such a significant study. “It’s a terrible sinking feeling – when I first saw the data, I thought, ‘Can this really be happening?’ It’s important to point out, but it sure is depressing.”

Sites says the model now needs detailed testing on all five continents, with a standardized protocol on lizard species that are widespread.

Read more about Sites’ exploits with reptiles in this BYU Magazine profile.

Portions of a UC-Santa Cruz news release are used here with permission.

================================================================

OK here’s the money quote from the BYU press release:

Sites explained. “But Mexican ecologists were going back every few years, and pretty soon the lizards were hard to find, and then they weren’t seeing any. These are protected areas, so the habitat’s still there. So you start to think there is something else going on.”

Yes it’s climate change! That must be it! It’s the only thing that fits…or…maybe not.

The popularity of keeping lizards as pets has exploded in the last 30 years. Catch and release programs aren’t the standard for lizards, it’s more like “catch and take home”.   In a poor country like Mexico, selling captured lizards, dead or alive to the gringos = easy money.

Take for example this report about lizard trade in Mexico from American University:

http://www1.american.edu/ted/REPTILE.HTM

Reptile Trade from Mexico:

“The illegal skins trade in Mexico represents millions of dollars annually on the black market.”

Here’s a peer reviewed paper on the lizard skin trade in Mexico:

Here’s a story about the explosion of exotic pets, including lizards, in the UK   http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/the-great-british-pet-the-new-trend-gripping-the-nation-424569.html

“The British Federation of Herpetologists believes there are already more reptiles than dogs in UK homes and while the number of canines began a steady decline 10 years ago, sales of snakes, lizards, spiders and snails continue to rocket with a five-fold increase in the past 10 years.”

Here’s another from Boston.com   http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/magazine/articles/2008/07/13/leaping_lizards/

“The popularity of reptiles as pets is exploding. In 2006, 4.8 million households in the United States owned 13 million reptiles, according to the American Pet Products Manufacturers Association. That’s double the 2.4 million households that owned reptiles in 1996.”

Maybe its not the heat, but the handbags: The “endangered species handbook” says: http://www.endangeredspecieshandbook.org/trade_reptile_lizards.php

“The luxury reptile leather trade has pushed many species toward extinction, and it shows no signs of declining.  Lizard and snakeskin products are now being sold in the volume that turtle and crocodilian leather once were. “

Even the WWF admits the trade is the problem:   http://www.worldwildlife.org/what/globalmarkets/wildlifetrade/faqs-reptile.html

“Scientists recognize some 6,000 species of reptiles in five different groups: turtles and tortoises (order Testudines), tuataras (order Rhynchocephalia), lizards (order Sauria), snakes (order Serpentes), and crocodilians (order Crocodylia). Reptiles are traded live as pets and for their parts, particularly their skins, which are valued for certain leather items such as shoes, wallets, handbags, and watchbands. In addition, some reptiles are used as food and to make traditional medicines.”

I find the choice of lizard used by Dr. Sites in the video and press release hilarious, because it underscores his complete lack of understanding of what’s going on outside his world. He uses an Australian bearded lizard (dragon) in the video, and provide this photo in the BYU PR page:

Click here to download

An Australian bearded dragon.

What’s funny about using a bearded lizard? They aren’t going extinct, they are being bred to meet the popularity demand.

http://www.lakehowellanimalclinic.com/html/bearded_dragon_biology.html

Bearded dragons (Pogona vitticeps) are omnivorous lizards that are native to Central Australia. These squamates have been raised in captivity with great success, with (estimates of) over 250,000 being produced in captivity per year.

Of course, with other lizards disappearing, it HAS to be climate change. There could not be any other explanation. Because, well, there just isn’t.

What a load of plonkers.

=======================

UPDATE: In comments Jimbo writes:

Here are examples of why some Mexicans and other nationals would like to catch lizards:

SHOES

Manolo Blahnik Lizard skin shoes $876.00

Manolo Blahnik black lizard ‘Cicero’ $876.00

Lucchese Womens 1883 Lizard Skin Boots $369.99

Lizard & Crocodile Penny Loafers $199.99

LADIE’S BAGS

Burgundy Lizard Skin Handbag $250

Blumarine Special Edition $749.99 YOU SAVE: 70.00 % !!!

FENDI Vintage Rare Beaded SILK LIZARD $399.00

Fendi evening handbag Neve NOW ONLY $1,113.00

——

BBC

“Customs officers are to work with police forces worldwide to crack down on the smuggling of exotic birds and animals.

The illegal trade rakes in billions of pounds a year, making it the second most lucrative after drug smuggling, according to the intern

========================================

Juraj V. says:

Temperature in Mexico:

http://climexp.knmi.nl/data/icrutem3_hadsst2_250-265E_15-30N_na.png

I can’t imagine the lizard die-off in 1860s or 1940s.

Look how the sinusoidal wave starts to go negative again.

http://climexp.knmi.nl/data/icrutem3_hadsst2_250-265E_15-30N_na.png

Well the popularity of keeping lizards as pets has exploded in the last 30 years. Catch and release programs aren’t the standard for lizards, it’s more like “catch and take home”.
In a poor country like Mexico, selling captured lizards – easy money.
Here’s a story about the explosion of exotic pets, including lizards, in the UK
The British Federation of Herpetologists believes there are already more reptiles than dogs in UK homes and while the number of canines began a steady decline 10 years ago, sales of snakes, lizards, spiders and snails continue to rocket with a five-fold increase in the past 10 years.”
Here’s another from Boston.com
The popularity of reptiles as pets is exploding. In 2006, 4.8 million households in the United States owned 13 million reptiles, according to the American Pet Products Manufacturers Association. That’s double the 2.4 million households that owned reptiles in 1996.”
Maybe its not the heat, but the handbags: The “endangered species handbook” says:
“The luxury reptile leather trade has pushed many species toward extinction, and it shows no signs of declining.  Lizard and snakeskin products are now being sold in the volume that turtle and crocodilian leather once were. “
Even the WWF admits the trade is the problem:
“Scientists recognize some 6,000 species of reptiles in five different groups: turtles and tortoises (order Testudines), tuataras (order Rhynchocephalia), lizards (order Sauria), snakes (order Serpentes), and crocodilians (order Crocodylia). Reptiles are traded live as pets and for their parts, particularly their skins, which are valued for certain leather items such as shoes, wallets, handbags, and watchbands. In addition, some reptiles are used as food and to make traditional medicines.”
Of course, it HAS to be climate change. There could not be any other explanation. What a load of plonkers.
0 0 votes
Article Rating

Discover more from Watts Up With That?

Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

133 Comments
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Spector
June 8, 2010 3:54 am

RE: “‘Science’ Paper links warming to lizard die-offs”
The word order here seems to indicate that scientists have discovered that warming has been caused by the death of lizards…

Finn
June 8, 2010 4:45 am

I get it, if you don´t look, you can always say you could not find any other reason, so it must be climate change that is to blame.

Enneagram
June 8, 2010 6:12 am

Global Warming is and will be the cause of the disappearance of many important things, among these freedom.

johnh
June 8, 2010 6:43 am

Its Maggie Thatcher again, shae made handbags popular again and started AGW to defeat the coal Miners.

June 8, 2010 6:46 am

Excellent research for this post. Some people never move out of their own bubble. Like the good Christian lady, years ago ,who tried to convince me that the best thing the missionaries did in the Pacific Islands during the Early Contact era was to induce the natives to wear clothes. Her mindset was unshakeable and she just smiled at me with irritatingly superior niceness when I attempted to counter her arguments. She ‘just knew’.

Tony Hansen
June 8, 2010 6:53 am

Geoff Sherrington (12:52 am)
But you have to bury it, and dig it up, on full moon….. because you can’t find where you buried it when there is no moon 🙁

June 8, 2010 6:57 am

Like most people who grew up in a rural environment, I very much enjoy programmes about the countryside and farming. For that reason, I watch BBC’s ‘Countrywatch’ series, which is usually quite down-to-earth and rational. But in every programme, there just has to be a nod to CAGW and I find that irritating in the extreme. Most of these ‘nods’ are slipped in surreptitiously, but some are total clangers. If the BBC wish to campaign for CAGW, why do I and others have to have this fed to us on our quite large licence fee?

Joe
June 8, 2010 7:12 am

@Grumbler

Lots down here [lizards] in Dorset UK. It’s a function of being slightly warmer than rest of UK but mainly because of habitat, sand and heath.

I’m in Newcastle so that probably explains it.
I like your comment on extinctions. It reminds me of some artical I read that explained how so many species are currently going extinct that a lot of them are going extinct before they’re even discovered. Imaginary extinctions.
Cheers,
Joe

latitude
June 8, 2010 7:21 am

“”Spector says:
June 8, 2010 at 3:54 am
RE: “‘Science’ Paper links warming to lizard die-offs”
The word order here seems to indicate that scientists have discovered that warming has been caused by the death of lizards…””
That actually makes more sense. 😉

LarryOldtimer
June 8, 2010 7:41 am

So then, when winter come to pass in the US, the local populations of robins “go extinct”. Well, the local populations disappear from the local area, but in fact don’t become extinct.
“Extinct” is a horrifying term in peoples minds, and promotes alarmism. Extinction only applies to a species, not local populations of a species. Alarming term used improperly in this matter, IMO.

Russell M
June 8, 2010 7:59 am

When I was a kid (30 to 40 years ago), we had quadrillions of small lizards here on our ranch in South Texas. Now we have very few. Also now have very few quail and rabbits, and wild turkeys seem to be declining. What do all of these animals have in common? They nest on or in the ground. What species has moved in and drastically multiplied over the past 30 or 40 years? Fire ants. They kill and consume all types of ground-nesting animals, sometimes including newborn calves.

Scott Brim
June 8, 2010 8:15 am

Didn’t the lizards evolve long ago during periods in earth’s geologic history which were from five to ten degrees Centrigrade warmer than today? As is said in the opening paragraph of the Wikipedia article concerning the evolutionary history of reptiles, “The origin of the reptiles lies about 320–310 million years ago, in the steaming swamps of the late Carboniferous period…..”

Gail Combs
June 8, 2010 8:16 am

Stan Buffel says:
June 7, 2010 at 4:13 pm
Perhaps the problem is not AGW but chemicals in the environment that affect the reproductive cycle….
_____________________________________________________________________-
You have hit on the answer! It was found that the GM corn, Starlink, has jumped the border and is now found in Mexico.
“A small California biotech company, Epicyte, in 2001 announced the development of genetically engineered corn which contained a spermicide which made the semen of men who ate it sterile. At the time Epicyte had a joint venture agreement to spread its technology with DuPont and Syngenta, two of the sponsors of the Svalbard Doomsday Seed Vault. “ source
So there is your answer. Spermicidal GM corn also jumped the Mexican border and was eaten by the lizards or by the insects who are the lizards prey, thereby rendering them sterile!
Well, it makes as much sense as a 0.7C temp rise as the cause doesn’t it?

Henry chance
June 8, 2010 8:45 am

Most of these lizards are egg laying non placental. The eggs are laid and survive a swing from night time low to day time highs of 40 to as much as 60 degrees. since the lizards are not warm blooded, they do not sit on their eggs. Is he saying they don’t lay eggs? Is something eating the eggs? That has nothing to do with warming.
If the egg goes thru a temp swing of as much as 50 degrees, how in the world does he think .6 degrees change upward in average is relevant? He of course hasn’t experimented for this.
A few mountain dwellers bear live young. It is time he starts doing a study. If he inserts global warming in his grant application, he has a better shot at serious funding.

John T
June 8, 2010 9:43 am

I still don’t see where they looked at both side of the temperature data. They calculate how much “active” time is reduced due to temps that are too high, but don’t consider how much active time is increased due to a reduction in temperatures that are too low. Either I’m missing something, or the reviewers did.

Dave McK
June 8, 2010 9:48 am

Sorry- this article is huge fail.
The argument pro climate caused extinction is not well supported but the rebuttals are beyond specious.
NOBODY ever made shoes or handbags form sceloporus – they are a few inches long with spiny scaled – there’s not even enough of them to eat.
Furthermore- if one wishes to assert that the pet trade to local tourists is any kind of factor- you really better be able to show that the lizard sites have some tourists or that the markets have sceloporus – or something that is not pure baloney.
You reached too far. You deserve to pull back a stump. This is a bad omen and sign of decline.

Gail Combs
June 8, 2010 9:53 am

Russell M says:
June 8, 2010 at 7:59 am
When I was a kid (30 to 40 years ago), we had quadrillions of small lizards here on our ranch in South Texas. Now we have very few. Also now have very few quail and rabbits, and wild turkeys seem to be declining. What do all of these animals have in common? They nest on or in the ground. What species has moved in and drastically multiplied over the past 30 or 40 years? Fire ants. They kill and consume all types of ground-nesting animals, sometimes including newborn calves.
_______________________________________________________________________
Yes and now they are headed for Washington DC. They are already past Durham NC and on their way north by leaps and bounds (about 10-20 years to travel the length of NC)
Do you think they will do us a favor and wipe out the not so rare species of two legged snakes in Washington DC???

kernels
June 8, 2010 10:33 am

Don’t need to go to no stinkin’ third world hellholes to count lizards when I can create a model to predict their decline.
With that in mind, I’m putting the finishing touches now on a model now that clearly demonstrates the recent rapid Amazon deforestation is due solely to climate change. I then plan to extrapolate it to show how a slight temperature change in the Antarctic resulted in a total extinction of the forest population there.

June 8, 2010 12:53 pm

“But for the phenomenon to be linked to climate change, the pattern would need to be seen globally. Sites connected Sinervo with researchers in Chile and Argentina, where Sites has been working for a decade. Sinervo also worked with researchers who documented lizard declines in Africa, Australia, and Europe.”
Five continents show the exact same pattern *as predicted* by research and it’s explained away by kids selling lizards in Mexico. Interesting way to avoid the point. But hey, some guy in Texas saw some lizards outside, so there’s no issue here. BTW, it got cold again this winter, Global Warming is such a joke.
Funny here how the hypothesis (Mexican kids are decimating global lizard populations) is accepted as proved because, duh, global warming is a hoax created by those rich research scientists to pay for their Ferraris. Oh, and look at shoe prices, doesn’t that prove the Mexican Kid theory?

Russell M
June 8, 2010 3:01 pm

RoPiNi says:
June 8, 2010 at 12:53 pm
“But hey, some guy in Texas saw some lizards outside, so there’s no issue here. ” ___________________________________________________________
RoPiNi,
I’m that “guy in Texas”. Please point out in my statement where I said there is no issue. For all I know, the advance of fire ants (a non-native species which arrived in Texas in the 1950’s) could be due to global warming, but I’d need a few million in grant dollars to answer that definitively.

Al Gored
June 8, 2010 4:35 pm

RoPiNi says:
June 8, 2010 at 12:53 pm
“But for the phenomenon to be linked to climate change, the pattern would need to be seen globally. Sites connected Sinervo with researchers in Chile and Argentina, where Sites has been working for a decade. Sinervo also worked with researchers who documented lizard declines in Africa, Australia, and Europe.”
Five continents show the exact same pattern *as predicted* by research and it’s explained away by kids selling lizards in Mexico. Interesting way to avoid the point.
——
But you miss the point. First and foremost, one needs to know the details of each one of those lizard declines before one leaps to any conclusion that may or may not apply to all of them.
What exactly is this “exact same pattern” you refer to? Why can only climate change explain it, if it actually exists at all?
Second, the key point is that there are many potential factors which may contribute to the decline of any species but you, like these researchers (Sites et al), jumped to the climate change conclusion.
And what makes this particular case so dubious is that whatever climate changes which may have impacted this species since the baseline 1970s observations have been so insignificant relative to the long history of much more dramatic climate changes that these lizards have survived that this conclusion borders on the ridiculous.
One can selectively look at all the continents and find examples of birds whose populations have declined for a variety of known reasons other than climate change.
Following your/this logic one would jump to the conclusion that they were all caused by climate change.
No wonder people find these stories increasingly laughable. Definitely not objective science, to put it mildly.

Justthinkin
June 8, 2010 4:48 pm

Jeff M….
“I can’t tell you if he’s just an AGW tool since I haven’t worked closely with him.
So I think it would be nice and wait until we’ve seen the data and the alternate explanations before making fun of or mocking him.”
When he doesn’t show or answer your second Q, you will have the answer to your first.
As an aside,every year since 1984,at this time of year I’m kept busy keeping the local kiddies/toddlers away from the baby garter/garden snakes around my backyard and garden. Haven’t seen one yet this year. Mind you,that could have something to do with March thru today being 8C below normal,and ground temps haven’t warmed up yet.
But then being cold blooded,you would think the little guys would be nuts by now(/sarc)

June 8, 2010 5:29 pm

“For all I know, the advance of fire ants (a non-native species which arrived in Texas in the 1950′s) could be due to global warming, but I’d need a few million in grant dollars to answer that definitively.”
Great, go and finish your doctorate, write up a proposal and we’ll see how it goes. Someone’s got to pay that Ferrari that all research scientists drive.
You could have just said, “I have no idea how reasearch grants are done” and saved everyone some time.
“Al Gored says: ”
Haha, you added a ‘d’ to Al Gore’s name, that’s genius. I’m expecting great things from your insights.
“First and foremost, one needs to know the details of each one of those lizard declines before one leaps to any conclusion that may or may not apply to all of them. ”
That’s what they did. “Sinervo also worked with researchers who documented lizard declines in Africa, Australia, and Europe.”
I’m pretty sure one of those other scientists would have noted all the Mexican kids running around snatching up lizards.
“What exactly is this “exact same pattern” you refer to? ”
Here in the article….you might want to read it before you next set of questions…”The researchers surveyed lizard populations, studied the effects of rising temperatures on lizards, and used their findings to *develop a predictive model of extinction risk*. Their model accurately predicted specific locations on five continents (North and South America, Europe, Africa, and Australia) where previously studied lizard populations have already gone locally extinct.”
“Why can only climate change explain it, if it actually exists at all? “”
Because outside of a few strange areas, everyone else has been noticing, and documenting, how the changing climate is affecting the world. BTW, you maight want to read the article again, “They later connected the lizards’ decline to climate records and studied the effect of rising temperatures on lizard physiology and behavior. For example, cold-blooded lizards can’t forage for food when their bodies get too hot – they must seek shade because they can’t regulate their own temperature. The researchers found that the hours per day when the temperature allowed foraging dropped significantly.”
Having a PhD in herpetology might help here. That way one can accurately gauge how changing temperatures affect cold-blooded animals. Sadly, it’s not as simple as “it’s hot, they should be going faster, durhh, durhh.”
“Second, the key point is that there are many potential factors which may contribute to the decline of any species but you, like these researchers (Sites et al), jumped to the climate change conclusion.”
Right, the Mexican Kid Theory. So where’s the data on that? Or is it the “Manolo Blahnik Great Shoe Extinctions Theory”? Have you collected any data at all? When you have a theory that accurately explains the data, a predictive algorithm, and correlates to known physiologies, you publish. When does the MKT appear in print?
“One can selectively look at all the continents and find examples of birds whose populations have declined for a variety of known reasons other than climate change.
Following your/this logic one would jump to the conclusion that they were all caused by climate change.”
One can make up any sort of fantastical study to prove their point), but that has nothing to do with science, nor logic. Unless you have a link for the one you mentioned. I’m sure with their many millions of dollars most research scientists would be more than happy to put this together for you, as it seems to be a totally relevant arm of science

Mike Maxwell
June 8, 2010 7:07 pm

I believe the real reason for the lizards’ disappearance from Mexico is that they’ve gone north of the border to sell car insurance.

rbateman
June 8, 2010 8:20 pm

Quit using weed killers and pesticides at home, then watch as the wildlife shows sudden appreciation of your cleaner enviro.