Chimp Predicts 6-8 Atlantic Hurricanes in 2010
Via press release: Washington, DC: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s track record in predicting the number of Atlantic hurricanes is so abysmal that a trained chimp could do better, says The National Center for Public Policy Research, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank.
The group is putting this claim to the test, issuing a 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Forecast today determined by a chimpanzee, “Dr. James Hansimian.”
Video links follow.
A video of Dr. Hansimian and his methodology can be found at www.nationalcenter.org/HurricaneForecast.html or http://tw0.us/DNm.
or watch it below:
The forecast is being issued in advance of NOAA’s May “Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook,” expected to be released next week.
“NOAA’s May outlooks have been wrong three out of the last four years – or 75% of the time,” said David Ridenour, vice president of The National Center for Public Policy Research. “We think our chimp can do better. He hasn’t been wrong so far. Of course, this is his very first hurricane season forecast.”
The video isn’t intended to needle NOAA for its erroneous forecasts, but to make a larger point about our current understanding of climate.
“NOAA’s forecasts have been wrong not because of a lack of dedication or competence of its forecast team, but because climate science is really still its infancy,” said Amy Ridenour, president of The National Center for Public Policy Research. “We should remember this as we consider whether to adopt economically-ruinous caps on energy. If we can’t rely on 6-month forecasts, how can rely on forecasts of what rising carbon concentrations will do to our climate 25, 50 or even 100 years out?”
The National Center for Public Policy Research is also issuing a challenge to NOAA.
“If, at the end of the hurricane season, Dr. Hansimian’s forecast turns out to be more accurate than NOAA’s, we challenge the agency to make him an honorary member of NOAA’s hurricane specialists unit,” said David Ridenour. “In return, if NOAA’s forecast is more accurate, we’ll include a prominently-displayed mea culpa on our website.”
Dr. James Hansimian, says the video, is “author of the book, ‘The Banana Curve: No Tricks Needed,’ published by East Anglia University Press.” The video was filmed on location in Las Vegas, Nevada on March 24, 2010 – before the latest predictions by either Colorado State University’s forecast team, which is led by Phil Klotzbach, or the forthcoming predictions expected from NOAA.
Dr. Hansimian is played by Kenzie, who starred “Chim Chim” in the 2008 Warner Brother release “Speed Racer,” appearing with actors John Goodman, Emile Hirsch and Susan Sarandon. Kenzie also had a guest spot on the VH1 reality show, “Hogan Knows Best,” starring Hulk Hogan.
A second video will be released on December 1, at the conclusion of the hurricane season, with Dr. Hansimian’s reaction to the performance of his forecast against the NOAA forecast.
The National Center for Public Policy Research is a non-partisan, non-profit – somewhat less stodgy and more irreverent – free market foundation based in Washington, D.C. It is a truly independent organization, receiving 98% of its funding from individuals through hundreds of thousands of donations. No individual, foundation, or company provides the organization with more than a fraction of one percent of its annual revenue.
Permission to use video on-air or online is granted so long as appropriate attribution to the National Center for Public Policy Research is included and the National Center is informed of its use. Please use the telephone, fax or email contact information at the top for all inquiries.
Kevin says:
May 19, 2010 at 7:48 pm
Wren,
Its sad that alot of the scientific literature from the 1980s perfectly predicted the current observed increase in temperature but people will ignorantly parrot the line of a washington policy wonk that “scientist can’t predict a hurricane how can they predict the climate”
Here’s a nature article from 1986…….
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v319/n6049/abs/319109a0.html
======
Thanks for the link to that article. It has lots of references that I would like to explore.
I think a lot of people have unrealistic expectations about prediction accuracy. No one can predict the future with the absolute certainty we would like to have. When a forecast is criticized for being off target , the question should be inaccurate compared to what? The “what” would be what other competing predictions were made at the time the forecast was made, including the assumption of no change.
I’m reading “Fooled by Randomess” right now. I was stimulated to create an algorithm for weather prediction.
You take today’s temperature and use it to predict tommorow’s. Before Labor Day you add one degree every so often , after Labor Day you subtract one. Here in the Bay Area (California) this procedure will be right (plus or minus a degree or two) probably 90% of the time – about the same rate as the Weather Service. And I have avoided the not inconsiderable expense of buying a chimp.
To compare a chimp, James Hansimian to the NOAA top man James Hanson – that’s offensive.
A monkey – OK, a lower ape, borderline, but a primate!!?
James Hansimian could sue for libel…
I would like to propose an alternative hurricane season prediction system, in which you simply say “6-9” each year (once you’ve been paid your million dollar research fee or whatever, of course). Over the recorded period this has twice as many correct answers as whatever system they were using, while maintaining the precision of the prediction (okay, sometimes they took their precision one narrower for some reason) – the misses also are mostly closer.